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Weekend reading: Bengen bails on the 4% rule

Weekend reading: Bengen bails on the 4% rule post image

What caught my eye this week.

I am a couple of weeks late to this. But I can’t be the only investing nerd who hadn’t heard – and was surprised to learn – that Bill Bengen has broken his own 4% rule.

For those new to these parts, a short summary.

In the early 1990s Bengen interrogated the historical return data for US shares and bonds. He determined that a 4% withdrawal rate from a retirement pot – increased with inflation after the first year – would nearly always see you through a 30-year retirement without you running out of money.

For more detail read our articles on sustainable withdrawal rates.

I’m not delving into the specifics today. What’s fascinating to me is the man made famous for partially solving the retirement problem / neatly branding a nifty bit of data-mining (pick your poison) has bailed on it in his 70th year.

Alas the primary source for the Bengen revelation lies behind a Wall Street Journal paywall (though a reader letter in response is viewable). I picked up the news on a recent Animal Spirits podcast.

In the podcast retirement demigod Wade Pfau says he hopes the news that Bengen was now 70% in cash will make people realize there’s no one-size-fits-all approach to income after work.

Indeed Pfau estimates that only about a third of the population have the right mindset for an equity-heavy total return drawdown strategy in retirement.

If that’s right then it means most people should be doing something different!

There’s not one rule to rule them all

Too often discussions of alternative approaches to retirement income (such as our old contributor The Greybeard’s equity income trust preference) get talked down as irrational or atavistic.

But in my view the only investing that ever works long-term is the style that works for you.

And as I’ve said many times before, in retirement a different set of problems may mean you’re best off turning to a different solution.

Of course if people making unfounded claims – that dividend income gives you a free lunch, or that an annuity is the only sensible way to invest your retirement pot, or that buy-to-let properties guarantee superior results, or that you need active managers to get you through a bear market (Merryn Somerset-Webb’s latest in the FT ) – then such specifics can be challenged.

My point is simply that there are trade-offs and advantages to all the approaches.

And that includes the ‘4% of a total return’ route – which might still, equally, be exactly right for you.

For once though you don’t have to take my word for it. Just look at the lived reality of Bill Bengen.

The man who wrote the rule on retirement investing is breaking that rule in spectacular fashion, because it turned out not to work for him. I commend him for sharing this so (sort-of) publicly.

Have a great weekend!

[continue reading…]

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Free social care options available to everyone

Free social care options available to everyone post image

This is part seven of a series on planning and paying for long-term social care in later life.

We’ve previously covered: 

In this final post, we cover free sources of support that can help everyone fund their care.

Long-term social care is not free at the point of delivery, unlike NHS treatment. Most social care is means tested – with complexity, arbitrariness, and under-provision shot through the system like tracer dye revealing contamination.

Very few people will get all the help they need. However there are some little-known free social care options that are universally available. 

These avenues of support typically depend on your need, not your bank balance.

They fall into three main categories:

  • NHS-funded care
  • Home adaptations and equipment
  • Non-means tested benefits 

Let’s briefly review each free social care category. I’ll also link out to useful sources of further information. 

NHS Continuing Healthcare (CHC)

NHS Continuing Healthcare can fully fund your care and accommodation – if you qualify for it. You may qualify if you require complex, ongoing care to manage severe and unpredictable illness or disability.

You won’t necessarily be made aware of CHC, even if you’re eligible. The first formal step is to ask your GP for a CHC assessment. 

However I recommend finding out more about the process first, through the Beacon social enterprise.

Why? Because qualifying for CHC is known to be difficult – so much so that NHS England fund Beacon to help guide people through it. 

CHC has been replaced in Scotland by Hospital-Based Complex Clinical Care. This scheme only covers people receiving long-term care in hospital.

NHS-funded Nursing Care (FNC) 

If you don’t qualify for CHC then the next stop is NHS-funded Nursing Care. This may cover your nursing care fees if you live in a care home that provides registered nursing care.

FNC pays a standard rate for nursing directly to your care home. The rate varies by UK nation. 

Your home should demonstrate how this money will reduce your bill. 

If you’ve had a CHC assessment then you should also get a FNC verdict. Contact your GP if this hasn’t happened. 

Nursing care in your own home is provided free of charge by community nursing services. It should be arranged by your GP if you don’t qualify for CHC. 

NHS Intermediate Care

The NHS Intermediate Care service is meant to help you recover your independence and get back to normal after a hospital stay, short illness, or fall. Intermediate Care also gives you a chance to assess your needs when you’re considering a permanent move into residential care. 

Care is free but short-term – lasting up to six weeks. It can be provided in your own home, a care home, or community hospital. 

Hospital staff should arrange intermediate care for you before you leave. Speak to the discharge coordinator if that isn’t happening. 

If you’re discharged without a care plan then contact social services. The hospital isn’t responsible for your care once you leave. 

Speak to your GP (or local authority social services) if you need help because of a fall or illness at home. 

If you don’t make a full recovery after six weeks of intermediate care then you should receive a plan to transfer to another service. That may involve paying for long-term care yourself. 

Intermediate care is also known as re-ablement or aftercare.

Section 117 mental health after-care 

Anyone detained under Section 3 of the Mental Health Act 1983 has a right to receive free aftercare once they’re discharged from hospital.

A care package must be provided by the local authority and the NHS so long as the person requires ongoing support that is:

  • Connected to their mental health condition
  • Reduces the risk of their condition worsening

Support can include paying for care at home or in residential accommodation. An aftercare plan should be provided before you leave hospital. 

Home adaptations and equipment

Home adaptations include stair lifts, ramps, walk-in baths, grab rails, lever taps and so on. 

Essential adaptations and equipment costing less than £1,000 each are likely to be provided for free in England. The limit is £1,500 in Scotland and considered on a case-by-case basis in Northern Ireland and Wales. 

Contact your GP or local authority ((Health and Social Care trust in Northern Ireland.)) for an occupational therapy assessment or a full care needs assessment. 

Means-tested Disabled Facilities Grants are available for more expensive adaptations. The amounts and specifics vary by home nation.

For ideas on adaptations and equipment that can help maintain independence, check out these lists:

Universal benefits 

You should also look into some applicable benefits that aren’t means tested nor widely known:

Attendance Allowance 

Up to £89.60 a week is available if:

  • You’re over State Pension Age
  • Physically or mentally disabled
  • Need someone to help care for you

If you permanently live in a care home, Attendance Allowance is not available if you receive local authority support.

Personal Independence Payment (PIP)

This is similar to Attendance Allowance but is only available for people aged between 16 and the State Pension Age. 

There are two parts:

  • Help with daily living tasks – pays up to £89.60 a week
  • Help with mobility – pays up to £62.55 a week

You may be eligible for one or both components. 

Other benefits

Age UK maintain a wider list of relevant benefits.

Money Helper also have a good care needs benefits page. It’s particularly strong on council tax discounts and exemptions.

Many people don’t claim all the benefits they’re entitled to. Use a benefits calculator to ensure you don’t miss out:

Carer’s benefits

Thankfully carers can get help too. You don’t have to be related to or living with the person you care for. 

Carer’s Allowance

£67.60 a week may be available if you care for someone 35 hours or more a week. That person must also be eligible for certain benefits such as the Attendance Allowance. 

If you qualify for Carer’s Allowance you’ll get National Insurance credits, too. Scroll down to the Carers’ section.

Carer’s Allowance can have a knock-on effect on other benefits. See the link to the benefits calculator on this government page.

The government also lists more benefits available to carers

You may be eligible for the Carer’s Allowance Supplement if you live in Scotland. 

Carer’s credit

Carer’s Credit helps people who care for someone at least 20 hours a week.

The credits increase the value of your State Pension by filling gaps in your National Insurance record. 

Carer’s respite care

Local authority funding is available to enable carers to take a break occasionally. As ever, you must be assessed to qualify.

This NHS page lists organisations that can assist with carer’s breaks including charitable support.

Carers UK offers advice and guidance to unpaid carers. 

Free personal care

Personal care is available for free in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Personal care is a defined set of services including washing, getting dressed, going to the toilet, meal preparation and medication.

For those in care homes, your local authority pays a set rate for personal care and nursing care in Scotland.

A set rate is also available for nursing care in a home in Northern Ireland. 

Personal care and nursing care is only available for free if your care needs assessment recommends you for it.

Charitable grants

The final free social care option is to apply for charitable grants. Turn2us has created a searchable database.

Care thee well

Needless to say, you can also explore all of the routes listed above on behalf of a loved one.

But for our part, that’s the end of Monevator’s series on long-term social care. 

Researching it has been a sobering experience. I dare say reading it hasn’t been a barrel of laughs either. 

If you knew little about long-term social care previously, then I hope the series has made it less of an amorphous threat. 

If your research is more urgent then I hope these posts have provided some help when you need it most.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

Bonus appendix: social care funding – the diagram

This flowchart graphically simplifies the complexities of the social care system:

A social care flow chart that shows the various options, decision points and thresholds along the journey.
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Weekend reading logo

What caught my eye this week.

According to a report in the Financial Times [search result], just a handful of interest rate rises could eat up all the profits of higher rate tax paying landlords.

The FT cites research by the upmarket estate agent Hamptons, which sent freedom of information requests to HMRC. The data collected enabled Hamptons to estimate the pain points for landlords:

Landlords paying the 40% income tax rate would see their annual profits on a mortgaged buy-to-let home wiped out if UK interest rates rise by another two percentage points […] underlining the tightness of margins maintained by property investors.

For a higher-rate taxpayer with an average two-year fixed rate and a 75% loan-to-value interest-only mortgage — a common type of buy-to-let loan — a rise of two percentage points would eradicate their profits, while a single percentage point rise would halve them.

These are dramatically low margins of safety.

CPI inflation is already running at 7% and it is likely to rise further before it falls.

The Bank of England has barely started its rate-rise campaign in response, having taken Bank Rate to 0.75%.

More interest rate rises seem nailed-on. The buy-to-let business could thus be about to be become unprofitable for many wealthier landlords.

Buy-to-lose blues

Of course, those feeling the pinch have options.

Paying down an increasingly costly mortgage will look more attractive as rates rise and cheaper fixed-rate deals expire. Assets and income can be reshuffled.

Some landlords may choose to just eat the pain and subsidize their properties, trusting that eventually rents will catch up or rates fall. Property is a long-term game, after all.

The maths will also make buying rental properties through limited companies more attractive thanks to their more favourable tax treatment – even for those not yet paying higher rate taxes, considering how the income tax bands have been frozen. May as well be prepared.

Higher power

How much sympathy you have for buy-to-let landlords will mostly depend, I imagine, on whether you are one.

But it’s another canary in the coal mine. Higher rates aren’t just bad news for disruptive growth stock investors who’ve seen their shares crash or – at the other end of the spectrum – for those who owned too many long-dated bonds. There will be knock-on effects all over the place.

It’s a process we need to go through to return financial conditions back towards normalcy.

Everyone hated the near-zero-interest rate world. But escaping its feeble gravity will be bumpy.

Have a great long weekend!

[continue reading…]

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Just Keep Buying: review

Cover of Just Keep Buying by Nick Maggiulli

Spoiler alert: Just Keep Buying (available now on Amazon) is an excellent personal finance and investing book. If it had been written 30 years ago, it would have been one of the best ever.

I know that sounds like I’m lauding author Nick Maggiulli while also damning him with faint praise.

But it’s simply a reflection of the spread of investing knowledge on the Internet since the 1990s. (At least until TikTok and YouTube started ruining things.) There’s far more competition.

Good accessible investing books were once rare jewels. I owned them all!

But today I suspect only a minority of even the keenest DIY investors buy and read a book about it.

Tens of thousands of decent investing articles are freely available online. Sorting the wheat from the chaff isn’t an efficient way to learn – and there’s always a risk you’ll accidentally become a meme stock day trader. But given time, the Internet can teach you all you need to know.

It has been a Cambrian explosion of engaging voices and investor empowerment.

Even so, reading a concise and actionable primer like Just Keep Buying could save you months of trawling and dead-ends.

That the book happens to be an engaging read is even better.

Crushing it

Nick’s blog Of Dollars and Data will already be familiar to readers of our Weekend Reading links.

In fact, much of the book will be.

That’s because – to stretch my Cambrian metaphor – Just Keep Buying is like the enduring fossil record of everything the wiser personal finance and investing voices have agreed upon over the past 20 years.

Save regularly and automatically. Invest passively with index funds. Diversify according to your age. You probably know the drill.

Indeed Nick himself contributed some of the best of that raw material.

I regularly find other bloggers quoting his seminal Even God Couldn’t Beat Dollar Cost Averaging for instance. (On a good day they even link to him…)

Just Keep Buying compresses it all down into an action plan. It reads like a very intelligent person consumed the passive investing bloggerati consensus, checked it against the data, and squeezed out the essentials on how to do it right.

Think of how tectonic forces crush coal to leave a diamond.

Nick’s book even sparkles in its way.

Easy reader

It’s ridiculously readable, for one thing.

It wouldn’t be right to say Just Keep Buying reads exactly like a blog, although it does repurpose some articles first posted on Nick’s website.

As I said, it’s much better structured than a blog.

But there’s that blog feel, in the short, attention-grabbing chapters.

Nick leans heavily too on the now familiar blog scaffolding made popular – at least in our sphere – by superstar money writer Morgan Housel.

Each chapter starts with the hook: a characterful and often only tangentially-related story from the world of science, geography, or astronomy. Then there’s the bridge to investing. Then the meat of what you need to know. All so cleanly dispatched you hardly notice the education going down.

For example a chapter on why you shouldn’t fear volatility starts with the founder of Federal Express gambling his company’s dwindling cash at Vegas, to stave off imminent bankruptcy.

The message? Risk comes with the territory. What’s important is taking an appropriate level for your needs and time horizon. But the image of a CEO playing blackjack to save his company is far more arresting than that previous bland sentence was.

Chapter after chapter slides by this way. Before you know it you’re halfway done.

For a book about a potentially dry subject, Just Keep Buying is a page turner.

Putting Just Keep Buying to work

That halfway point is where Just Keep Buying pivots. The first half is all about personal finance. The second half focuses on investing.

Like this the book first outlines how, why, and how much to save – with useful detours into debt and home buying – before explaining how to put your money to work to create long-term wealth.

There’s not much prevarication. Nick makes the case for each step like a confident barrister. Save this much to aim for that much. As you’d expect if you know his writing, he also backs up each strategy with data. So he doesn’t just tell not to sit around in cash waiting for the next crash. He’s got the data to prove why it’s usually a losing strategy.

There’s plenty of graphs too. These are very welcome, albeit they’re not quite as easy to read in printed form as on his website.

And there’s the judicious deployment of personal anecdotes.

As a Stanford graduate with a fairly modest background who is now moving and shaking in New York, Nick straddles several worlds. Yet he deploys his experiences lightly.

For example very late in the book he reveals his family’s financial fall from grace during the US housing downturn in the 2008 crisis. Where others would have opened the book with a strident claim to have risen from the ashes or whatnot, Nick just makes a level-headed point about the perception and reality of wealth. It’s disarming and effective.

Slightly less successful is a range of quotes and other sources sort of shoehorned into the copy. We even get US shock writer Tucker Max’s advice not to be an angel investor, for instance. Perhaps these are part of what makes the book such a breezy read, but at least for me they feel a bit like they’d been peppered in to spice up or add depth to the message.

I feel the book is at its best when Nick just tells us what he thinks.

Sincerely simplified

On that note, a flipside to Nick’s confident no-nonsense approach is you’ll probably find some things you disagree with. There’s usually a caveat in the text (just like my ‘usually’ there) but in some places Nick’s rules do stretch the sense of that word.

There’s no law that says you must save as much as you splash out to assuage spending guilt, for example (Nick’s 2x rule). And a throwaway comment that you could give your match to charity instead would in reality produce a vastly different financial outcome over a couple of decades.

Similarly, while I understand the mathematics that says somebody with a high savings rate ‘must’ save more of any future salary raise to stay on-target – because that target has been arbitrarily defined as retirement spending that’s a certain percentage of their pre-retirement spending, reached by a predetermined date – the reality is that if you save hard for a couple of decades you actually have huge optionality later.

Of course there will be consequences if you spend your raises in your 50s and 60s. But you won’t really be breaking any savings rules.

This isn’t to take anything away from Just Keep Buying. Nick shows his workings, as my old maths teacher used to say. He’s not preaching a huckster’s secret way to wealth. Many readers will find his clear instructions hugely helpful and reassuring. Those who want to tweak the formulas will do so from a solid starting point.

The same could be said for the investing chapters. We don’t get a deep dive into asset classes or platforms or anything else.

But how many people really need that?

Our chapter on bonds in the never-published Monevator book is longer than Nick’s entire summary of the pros and cons of the most important assets to build a portfolio. But honestly? For most people his summary will be enough. For them a simpler guide that is easily digested and put to work will trump a deep dive that satisfies the purists (even one that has been published!)

That said, one thing I’m not quite sure about is whether I found the book to be such an easy read because I’m so well-versed in this stuff.

Nick talks a lot about volatility, for example. That’s a bread-and-butter word for old hands, but opaque to the uninitiated. I think a moderately intelligent reader would have few problems. But I guess some people could find the simple messages obscured by unfamiliar lingo, despite Nick’s best efforts.

I should mention too that the book was written for a US audience. In practice there’s only one chapter where this matters – a provocative section on how to best use US tax shelters that actually is a bit contrary to that prevailing consensus I talked about.

You won’t get much from that if you’re not a US citizen. But the rest of the book is universal.

A sticker and a keeper

In the 15 years since starting this blog, I’ve seen many money bloggers come and go.

I still remember finding Nick’s blog, Of Dollars and Data. That first article featured his trademark animated data-visualizations, which might as well be black magic to us Cro-Magnons at Monevator.

Better still, Nick’s words lived up to the fancy graphics.

I gulped and copied the link for Weekend Reading.

Long ago I decided that if we were going to be outgunned by smarter, savvier new kids on the block then at least I’d do my small bit to bring them to the world’s attention. That’s one reason why I’ve kept linking to other websites each week for all these years – and long after it fell out of fashion. (The other is so you enjoy my finds and keep reading us to discover more!)

There’s been a lot of false alarms along the way. Many people have a couple of great blog posts in them. Some a half-a-dozen.

But very few keep up the quality for years.

Nick has – even several years in and after his blog turbo-charged his career (and I presume his workload). And now he has a great book to add to his resume.

Just buy it

Just Keep Buying is among the best of the spate of investing blogs turned into books. It’s not quite at the level of Morgan Housel’s The Psychology of Money, but that was one for the ages.

Besides – whisper it – much as I adore Housel’s writing and will laud The Psychology of Money as much as the next jealous blogger who’s unlucky enough to be writing at the same time as him, Nick’s book will probably deliver more takeaway value to more people.

That’s because Just Keep Buying is both a solid mantra and a call to action.

Yes, if you’ve been knocking around these parts since the financial crisis it’ll be reassuringly familiar, like a greatest hits album. But if you’re newer, it could seriously accelerate your progress.

It would also be a perfect gift for that smart, curious, would-be investor in your life.

If you’re looking for a comprehensive manual on the nuts and bolts of even simple passive investing, you’ll have to buy a companion tome. (Or keep reading Monevator!)

But how many people really need that? For 90% of its target market, Just Keep Buying will get 95% of the job done. Recommended.

You can get your copy of Just Keep Buying via our Amazon affiliate link. (Here’s the US link). Nick did kindly send me a copy of his book for review. He also wrote a personal note at the front. But I don’t believe these thoughtful gestures have bamboozled me into liking his book!

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