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Social care costs: how they impact retirement finances – case study post image

This is part five of a series on how you can plan and pay for social care costs in later life.

Part one explores why your social care needs probably won’t be funded by the state. 

Part two decloaks the social care funding means test. How does it treat your assets and what’s excluded? 

Part three identifies the key social care thresholds. These tipping points decide your funding fate.

Part four unpicks how to estimate social care costs using available data. 

This post is a case study showing how my retirement plan copes when one of us goes into a care home. I hope the thought process proves useful to anyone facing these choices, or who wants to stress-test their own finances.

Oour previous post explained how to estimate a ballpark number for your social care costs. With that number in hand, you can test your expected retirement finances.

Can your plan withstand the shock of you – and/or a loved one – needing long-term care?

I’ve tested my own finances as an example. The exercise gives me hope we’d survive, should we need to. But not in the way I expected. 

Social care cost case study: my assumptions

For my stress test I’ll model the financial shock of me going into a care home. Meanwhile Mrs Accumulator will hold the fort in our real home. 

Let’s assume I’m 85 when I go in. My chance of needing residential care increases drastically at that age.

  • The average life expectancy for an 85-year-old male care home resident is three years. 

I’ll model what happens over six years because: 

  • The average life expectancy for female residents is currently four years. Modelling extra years will be useful for female readers.
  • There’s a chance I could hang around annoying people for longer anyway. 

Care home cost inflation is 5% a year.

I’ll use today’s figures for my expected retirement income, care home costs, and the social care system. These are the best proxy I’ve got for what could happen later in life.

However, I’ll use the new social care thresholds and cap proposed for England from October 2023. I live in England and I have to assume this shake-up will be closer to the truth than the current bands.

The UK average self-funded care home cost is around £40,780 per year. That’s according to the process we examined in our article on estimating the cost of care.

Reminder: this guesstimate is for someone who does not qualify for state funding. 

For simplicity’s sake, I won’t customise that figure by my region for this case study.

I won’t look at the worst-case cost scenario, either. (Think £68,694 for dementia care in a south-west of England nursing home. I’ll model that one on a dark and stormy night when I truly want to scare myself.) 

The social care financial assessment 

The means test assesses financial resources held in my name, plus 50% of anything held in joint accounts.

Because Mrs TA needs a place to live, our home is not on the line in this scenario. It’s not sucked into the means test so long as she stays there. 

The means test classifies my resources as income and capital

In the crazy, budget-necrotising world of social care, those terms don’t refer to the standard definitions of income and capital. 

State support is wiped out if I have too much income or too much capital. 

Let’s look at my social care scoreboard.

Income

This is made of two components in my case.

  • £300,000 defined contribution pension – my half of The Accumulator household’s pot.

My plan is to drawdown approximately £12,000 inflation-adjusted income per year using a 4% sustainable withdrawal rate.1

We’ll soon see that local authorities aren’t much interested in the 4% rule. They can claim my income is far higher.

  • £9,628 a year full State Pension.2 Hopefully the State Pension is still a thing when I’m 85. 

That’s it. That concludes the voting from the income side of my finances. 

My net income is therefore £19,816

Capital 

  • £100,000 in stocks and shares ISAs. This is from the 25% tax-free lump sum (I will have) carved from my SIPP. 

I intend this pot to deliver £4,000 a year in tax-free income. But it becomes a liability when viewed through the lens of social care funding. I’ll explain why below.

Our only other capital asset is the house. But that’s disregarded from the means test, because Mrs TA wants a roof over her head. (Get her!) 

If Mrs TA goes into residential care too or passes away, then the house is fair game. 

Capital over £100,000 immediately rules out state support in England from October 2023. Currently the social care thresholds are meaner in England. They are different again in the other home nations.

Capital under £20,000 theoretically rules in state support. But that’s only after most of my income is deducted from the care home cost. We’ll come back to this. 

Between those thresholds you’re in the netherworld. You might be eligible for some funding. But it’s fast whittled away by every chunk of your capital in this grey zone. 

I have £80,000 in the threshold sandwich.

That doesn’t bode well for my chances of getting support. 

Means test says “no”

Because I’m not ruled out for state support on capital grounds, the system shifts to rule me out on income grounds. 

The cost of my care home is £40,780 if I have to fund it myself. 

But the maximum funding available is £29,128. That’s the cost the local authority would pay for the same care – due to its superior buying power. 

The system doesn’t care that self-funders pay a 40% higher premium on average than do local authorities. 

If my means-tested income is over £29,128 then I’m footing the entire bill.3

  • My actual income is £23,816, including my ISA withdrawal rate.  
  • But my means-tested income can be assessed as £56,489

[Rubs eyes in disbelief]

Surely there’s been some kind of mistake? 

Sadly not…

My means-tested income has been inflated by two mechanisms:

  • The tariff income penalty levied on my £80,000 ISA capital caught between the social care threshold jaws. 
  • Lifetime annuity rates that can be used to assess my pension income, instead of my chosen drawdown. 

Open market annuity quotes indicate the income for an 85-year old can be assessed at a much higher level than would be generated by my sustainable withdrawal rate. 

Income payable towards care home fees: a quick aside

Regardless of your capital situation, your income above £1,295 a year goes towards your care home fees. 

The sliver you keep is known as the Personal Expenses Allowance (PEA). 

  • If your means-tested income minus the PEA4 is less than the local authority’s care home cost, then the council will make up the difference.
  • Should your means-tested income be higher than the local authority cost (plus the PEA) then you’ll pay the whole bill. 
  • If your actual income is less than your social care costs then it’s all consumed bar the £1,295 allowance. 

The care cap could eventually come to your rescue in England. However even that’s a long shot. See below.

Tariff income calculation 

Between the social care thresholds, every £250 of capital (or part thereof) adds £1 per to your means-tested income figure. 

My tariff income works out like this:

£100,000 (ISAs) – £20,000 (lower threshold) = £80,000.

£80,000 / £250 = £320 per week tariff income added to my means-tested income.

That’s £16,640 in year one (as opposed to £4,000 ISA income I’d expect to withdraw).

£16,640 tariff income added to my net income of £19,816 catapults me far beyond the boundary for support.

That boundary is £29,128 (local authority care home price) plus £1,295 (Personal Expenses Allowance). 

Because I’m now classified as a self-funder, my care home bill will actually be £40,780. 

I don’t have the income to pay those social care costs. So I’ll end up running down my ISA assets to square the circle. 

Still, once I’m below £20,000 in capital, tariff income ceases to be a problem. (That shouldn’t take long at those prices.)

The thornier issue is how my defined contribution pension is valued by the local authority… 

Lifetime annuity income calculation 

Social care guidance allows local authorities to calculate your pension pot income as:

the maximum income that would be available if the person had taken out an annuity.

This applies once you reach State Pension Age. The local authority can get an annuity estimate from the Government Actuary’s Department or your pension provider. 

To see how that plays out, I checked the annuity rates. Reminder: I’m an 85-year-old male with a pension pot of £300,000. I used the Money Helper annuity comparison tool. 

The tool comparison flashed up an income of £38,860 for a level annuity with no protection whatsoever.5

In other words, the income wouldn’t rise with inflation. Worse, if I popped my clogs the day after signing up, the annuity provider would bank every penny from my pension pot. Mrs TA wouldn’t get a thing. 

That looks like a bad bet for a guy with a life expectancy of three years. 

Add the £38,860 annuity to £16,640 tariff income and my means-tested income soars to £56,489. 

I have no chance of state support until I tailor my finances to the means test. 

Is there a better alternative?

If you can’t beat them, join them. At age 85 an annuity probably will provide a better income than my prudent withdrawal rate rules. 

I just need to buy one that takes care of Mrs TA, too.

Annuity protections that provide for partners, the kids, and other beneficiaries mean I won’t match that £38,860 quote.

That’s fine because:

  • If I buy an annuity then the local authority must count that as my income.
  • They can’t cook up some shady max income that I don’t actually have. 

Sacrificing annuity income for partner protection looks like a good trade-off when my life expectancy is foreshortened.

I can secure a £22,346 income from an escalating annuity bought with my £300,000 pension pot. 

The income rises with RPI-inflation – handy if I linger – and will pay the same escalating amount to Mrs TA if I don’t.6

Inflation-protection, partner protection, a far higher income versus drawdown – the much-maligned annuity has a lot going for it once you reach a certain age. 

Value protection options also enable you to rig your annuity to pay out a lump sum to your family to sugar the pill of your passing. That limits the threat of the annuity company snaffling all your capital should you prematurely push up daisies. 

There’s also an immediate needs annuity. This is designed specifically for paying long-term social care costs. The main advantage is your income is tax-free: if it goes straight to a registered care provider.

I haven’t researched these products yet. They may well be better for value for money than the annuities I looked at.

(Monevator contributor Planalyst tells me that a financial adviser would normally recommend an immediate needs or deferred care annuity to deal with social care ahead of other annuity types.)

It’d be worth thinking about annuitising the ISA assets, too.

Beware of Catch-22s

There are other SNAFUs to investigate such as:

  • Raising income slightly, only to lose benefits and worsen your overall position. 
  • Blundering into a solution that has an unexpected tax sting. 

Financial barbed wire like this is hard to untangle. 

Paying your social care costs is one of those times it’s probably wisest to seek expert financial advice on your situation.

Other options worth considering include partial annuitisation, or drawing down my pot at an accelerated rate. 

So where does that leave us?

The case study must go on! So let’s assume I go into the care home having bought an escalating annuity. 

By purchasing the correct protections, Mrs TA and I are better off. And we eliminate one of the means-tested income problems. 

The other problem is tariff income. That solves itself by year five. See this fun snapshot of my care home years:

A table that shows how social care costs escalate over time, the effect of the means test, and when state funding kicks in.

Assumptions

  • Self-funded care home costs rise by 5% annually.
  • Local authority care home costs, Daily Living Costs, State Pension, and Personal Expenses Allowance all rise by 3% annually. 
  • Social care cap, social care thresholds, and Personal Allowance – no annual inflation rise. 
  • RPI-linked escalating annuity – 3.5% annual rise. 
  • My life expectancy is three years. But I’ve modelled six years because I hit the social care cap towards the tail of year five. Who would want to miss that?

Here’s a link to my social care costs spreadsheet. Try running your own numbers.

The edited highlights

My ISA capital is obliterated by my self-funder costs in years one and two. 

Capital falls from £100,000 to £20,000 by year three. The proceeds of this pay my care home fees for the first two years. 

Tariff income is out of the equation from year three. I qualify for around £2,440 of state support from then on.

I’d aim to keep my ISAs as close to £20,000 as possible. Capital below that lower threshold isn’t captured by the means test. Anything above weighs me down with tariff income at a penal rate. 

My actual income isn’t enough to pay for the care home in any year. Hence I drain the ISAs early on. I rely on some state support after that. 

From year three, I’m no longer a self-funder. I pay the local authority’s care home price thereafter. That price – minus my assessed income – is the level of state funding I get, until the social care cap is reached. 

My assessed income is my net income minus the Personal Expenses Allowance – once I’m no longer dogged by tariff income.

That leaves me with £1,373 income to spare in year three, plus a dribble of ISA income. That’ll all be gobbled up by hidden charges, top-ups, Mrs TA’s gin problem and so on.

Off-stage, the switch from self-funder to state-funded status could be a problem if the local authority and my chosen care home can’t do a deal.7

The local authority doesn’t have to pay my care home’s price. It can offer me an alternative home it declares is more suitable and cost-effective. 

I’d be welcome to stay where I am if I could afford it. As I couldn’t from year three, I’d be at the mercy of the local authority’s decision. 

What happens to my income? 

Yet another grey area is what happens to the income I’m not spending on care homes (years one and two) because I’m burning my ISA capital on the fees instead?

I assume I can ship it to Mrs TA to pay the bills back at base without being accused of deprivation of assets. (That’s social care system speak for: ‘you’re diddling us’.)

Perhaps then Mrs TA could use some of that income to grow her ISAs?

I don’t think I’d be depriving the local authority of capital or income. My capital is paying fees and my income will be the same next year.

But I’m no expert. I’d really want specialist advice before making any such move. 

My spare income could also pay for top-up care. I might go for this if the local authority and I disagree on my needs. I suspect I have a higher opinion of myself than the council does. 

One thing that I should not do is stick the extra cash in a bank account. It’d only get counted as capital at the next assessment. 

Hitting the social care cap

The social care cap cavalry arrives towards the end of year five.8

It’s sobering to remember my last year on this Earth is projected to be year three, according to the life expectancy data. 

And also that government headlines imply your care costs are state-supported once you hit the magic £86,000 mark. 

My social care costs will reach about £175,000 before the cap puts a leaky lid on it.9

If this same level of ‘protection’ applied to birth control, I’d be a father of five by now. 

Progress to the care cap is delayed by all the exclusions. Namely: the self-funder premium, Daily Living Costs, state funded payments, and top-up fees. 

My state-funding shoots up in year six once the cap closes. I go from £2,545 to £21,711 in support.

I’m only responsible for the Daily Living Costs once I’ve hit the cap. I can almost cover that with my State Pension. 

Hitting the cap leaves me with more disposable income – £20,619 instead of £1,457.

We’ll put it towards a new exo-skeleton for Mrs TA. Hopefully that’ll keep her out of the care home. 

House money 

If the house comes into play then our capital shoots sky high. We’ll pay full self-funder fees from its value until we reach the cap.

In that case, we’d need to check the merits of a deferred payment agreement versus commercial equity release versus selling it. 

Those we leave behind

My main concern is that Mrs TA has enough to live on while I’m living it large in the care home. 

Simply put, an individual can’t live as cheaply as two.

The Retirement Living Standards research suggests that a person living on their own needs 68% as much as a couple. As opposed to 50% as much. 

The Retirement Living Standards’ £30,600 ‘moderate’ band is a good proxy for our standard of living. A single person needs £21,000 a year to maintain that heady lifestyle. 

Assuming Mrs TA’s income* mirrors mine, it stacks up like this:

  • £12,000 @ 4% withdrawal rate from £300,000 pension pot. 
  • £4,000 @ 4% withdrawal rate from £100,000 stocks and shares ISA.
  • £9,628 full State Pension.
  • £23,816 total after tax.

Mrs TA scrapes over the £21,000 line, thanks to her State Pension. 

To cover her without that headroom, we’d be looking at equity release or annuitisation. 

That wouldn’t be such a hard decision for us because we don’t have kids. There’s no need to live like poor church mice at such a grand old age.

++*Monevator minefield warning ++ In a futile effort to streamline this case study, I glossed over an important reality. The bulk of The Accumulators’ joint pot is in my name. You can assign 50% of your pension income to your spouse or civil partner so it doesn’t count towards your means test. But you’d need to do that when you were still healthy, and a sub-50% share isn’t disregarded from the test. So how does that work if your pot is less than 50% bigger? And your partner needs, say, 40% of your income to pay the bills? I guess you could fork over 50% anyway, and make it work together to establish a prior pattern of spending before the forensic accountants inspect your bank statements. But who organises their finances like this? Unmarried couples must also watch out. As usual, they don’t benefit from the same financial protections.

Stress test passed

The good news is that our retirement finances can deal with the social care costs racked up in this case study. Assuming my starting assumptions are accurate.

Yay!

I’m heartened by that. Because we’re hardly operating at the luxury end of the market. 

Of course I haven’t modelled every nightmare scenario. Nor even the more likely one – needing care in the home. 

Perhaps that can be my new hobby. 

The short version: higher costs simply burn up my ISA faster, and increase state support thereafter as my income is swamped by higher fees. 

If the house is mean-tested then its value saves the state stepping in until I hit the cap. 

The main benefit of greater resources is paying for a higher standard of care than the basic state package. 

A high income can also be used to protect your capital assets (such as the house) from being chewed up by fees. Once the cap is hit then your house is safe.

Anyone who triggers a high proportion of state support from the outset will take much longer to hit the cap. Because state funding does not count towards your cap target, you could be left subsisting on the miserly Personal Expenses Allowance for years and years.

If your income is too low to meet the Daily Living Costs then they could consume your home’s value. Those costs are never capped.

Better plan for care

The standout takeaway for me is the system’s eye-gouging complexity. This is not something anyone should have to cope with while in failing health.

So long as social care remains in this patchwork state, I think it’s worth planning ahead of time. 

My dream scenario is that we agree this is no way to carry on as a society. The cost of long-term social care is the UK’s worst lottery. None of us know if we’ll be left holding a losing ticket. 

A risk of catastrophic outcomes for a minority is best handled collectively. Hopefully we’ll agree to create a proper safety net. One that protects everyone from a bad roll of the social care dice. 

Next post: Planalyst runs her rule over various financial products that can help pay for social care

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

Bonus appendix: social care funding – the diagram

This flowchart graphically simplifies the complexities of the social care system. It will help you follow this series:

A social care flow chart that shows the various options, decision points and thresholds along the journey.

  1. The reality is a little more nuanced. But I’m simplifying a few aspects in a vain attempt to stop this case study imploding. Blame the byzantine absurdity of the social care system. []
  2. 2022-23 figure. []
  3. After deducting the Personal Expenses Allowance from my income. []
  4. The PEA is slightly more generous outside England and is called the Minimal Income Amount in Wales. []
  5. The annuity was a single guaranteed income product. []
  6. It’s a joint income annuity that pays 100%. []
  7. It’s possible I could qualify for local authority rates before year three. This is a North Sea sized grey area. I’ve assumed I remain a self-funder in years one and two to keep things less murderous than they already are. []
  8. For sanity’s sake I haven’t modelled the exact moment I hit the £86,000 social care cap. []
  9. If I assume the social care cap rises at an inflation rate of 3% I won’t hit it until some point in year six. Your outgoings before the cap is ‘officially’ reached are worse if you self-fund for longer, for example because you have more in capital. []
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How to spend money

Image of cash to present how to spend money

During the final few years of my extended graduate student lifestyle, I wondered if I’d ever spend money like a normal person.

House-sharing in my early 40s was still fun. I lived with an old friend – a should-be standup comic – and my picaresque romantic life was heavier on the romance than the ‘life’ part. So I never had to level up my spending on that account either.

My income was good if unspectacular by London standards. It dwarfed my needs.

I was lucky that my job provided global travel and a paid-up social life.

Combine a lifetime of saving with investing mania, and any rare splurge on a fancy meal or even a modest holiday felt like scrumping apples from an orchard.

I had growing resources at my back. But I had no desire to deploy them.

Spending money just seemed to create hassle, anyway. A new gadget to learn, or an expensive suit that needed adjusting, taking me back into the sight lines of salesmen.

I had a pet theory that the only sure way to get value from money was to either eat it via a favourite restaurant, or to take a black cab home afterwards. (This being before Uber or even Deliveroo).

Eating out and avoiding the night bus delivered the most bang for my hoarded bucks, not that I did much of either.

Everything else had catches.

What became of the likely lads

I appreciate that to some the notion of a nearly-middle-aged man living with his university friend and relishing a free-range chicken from Waitrose as a treat will seem odd. If not pathetic.

But it is not that strange in the mildly less conventional urban circles I moved in.

For a long time the unusual thing versus my peers was my portfolio, not my living arrangements.

However time did eventually tell. Generations of friends paired-up and left London. (And got divorced, but that’s another story.)

And as Morrissey once sang, the joke that me and my other half on the council tax bill were already a married couple wasn’t quite so funny anymore.

One acquaintance pitched our set-up as Men Behaving Badly meets the IT Crowd.

Another – an ex-girlfriend turned confidant – described me as chrysalis in suspended animation.

I mostly brushed this off, lying on our vast sofa watching The Wire on a Sunday night while they fretted with kids or dreaded work on Monday.

Indeed that sofa was a case in point. My housemate got it from his high-rolling sister. She couldn’t take it with her when she emigrated with her banker husband and kids to South East Asia. We got it ‘on loan’ but it was obvious she’d never want it back.

We marveled that it cost “over £1,000”. My friend almost bragged as much to visitors.

Strangely, they never seemed that amazed.

Soon enough I’d find out why.

Can’t stand me now

You see, the end was near for my long experiment in responsibility-free living.

One day I showed my pal a Help to Buy scheme and this time it grabbed his attention.

I suspect he was getting fed up with our take on The Two Ronnies, or at least becoming more sensitive to the innuendo.

Also, with my financial hat on I’d been boring him for a decade about how he should convert his dependable salary into a mortgage.

Finally he listened.

Six months later I was able to rue my advice at my leisure as I knocked about the house on my own. Having a place to myself did make a nice change. But I didn’t like the rent at all.

I decided to bite the bullet and to buy my own place, too.

My eccentric finances made this non-trivial. But I wangled a mortgage and bought a roomy space that four years on I’m still smitten with.

What a waster

Breaching my fortress balance sheet with a mortgage after a lifetime of no debt upset my equilibrium. I’m still adjusting my investing, for instance, to reflect my changed risk tolerance.

But it was spending money to make my flat into a home that presented the biggest challenge.

As I said, for many years I was fortunate to travel with work. Being in a somewhat trendy industry, we invariably stayed in hip boutique hotels.

I loved them and I wanted my own home to be as nice. I knew this would mean spending money.

But I didn’t. Not to begin with. Perhaps I couldn’t.

At first I slept on a camping mat. Snow piled up against the bi-fold doors.

I didn’t have any curtains.

My then-girlfriend got sick of this pretty quickly, so I bought a mattress. It arrived in a box and I slept like a dream.

Specifically, like someone dreaming of a dining table and perhaps a TV instead of a laptop.

I told myself and others that I was gathering my interior design thoughts. And it was true I now spent my weekends in the shops – places like Habitat and Heals and John Lewis that had previously been about as substantial to me as the facades of a Hollywood set.

The truth was I was reeling from the cost of moving – especially the obliteration of tens of thousands of pounds due to stamp duty – and I needed to regroup.

Don’t look back into the sun

It took a while. But in time I did furnish my place in the style I aspired to be accustomed to. I even splashed out on a wish list item – a coffee machine – that still makes me smile four years on.

Most people come to personal finance blogs to hear how to save and invest.

But from years of the Monevator comments, I know I’m not the only one with a not-spending habit.

So here’s how I learned to actually spend money without ruining my long-term plans.

1. Partition your finances

Unlike my co-blogger, I don’t budget. For most of my life a budget would have been as gripping as a celibate monk chronicling his sex life. I invest almost everything I can, and if I need to spend there’s money left in the current account.

I pay myself first, second, and third!

However I do track my net worth and my portfolio (and sub-portfolios) via a real-time spreadsheet.

So I created a new entry for flat furnishing. I detailed all the purchases I could think of, estimated the cost of each, and bumped the total up by 50% as a buffer.

This money was now separately bucketed for doing up my flat.

This got it into my skull that my spending would be contained. I could see my money mostly stayed invested. And because I was outfitting my first home as a 40-something after years of saving rather than straight from university, I was lucky in that the budget was only a small share of my net worth.

2. Spend money slowly

Unfortunately for you – unless you are one of half a dozen people I know who could be reading this – you haven’t been to the most beautiful home in the world.

But I have. I still have daydreams about it.

A relatively modest finca in Spain, it was refurbished and extended by the mother of another of my exes. (See, there are perks to serial heartbreak.)

Besides having an amazing eye for detail – and a bargain – she explained that the secret was to go slowly. To see how you use the space. How the light falls. And so on.

That was all a good excuse to spread out my spending and put up with short-term inconvenience while I decided what to buy for the best.

This gentle pace definitely made it easier to spend compared to bleeding cash every weekend.

3. Spend out of income (including future income)

Another benefit to drawing out my spending was I dipped into my savings less than I’d anticipated. It was more that I redirected new income towards each month’s project.

My saving rate slowed, of course. But that was pretty invisible, and easier for a lifetime saver than seeing my bank balance go south.

(To get a sense of just how deeply my saving habit runs, I once worked out that some of the deposit on my flat originally came from a teenage paper round.)

I also put a lot of spending on a 0% credit card. There was no interest to pay for a couple of years. I ran this into five-figures. That might seem irresponsible but – without wanting to sound like a dick – even four years ago it was only as much as a daily fluctuation in my portfolio.

Before the term was up, I transferred the balance to a new 0% card for a small fee.

Honestly – with inflation running at 7% I’m happy to kick repaying this into the long grass.

4. Amortize everything

I soon learned the reason our old £1,000 sofa didn’t faze anyone is that because even for a very big sofa, a grand is not especially indulgent.

I spent several times that on a leather one with a three-month lead time from an Italian factory.

Buying this sofa did give me pause. I wondered who I’d become. I was not actually running a boutique hotel, after all. This was spending on expenses, not an investment for income.

However it was a very well-made and timeless sofa. I estimated it would last me at least five years and very probably ten. A few years in, my guesstimate is looking good.

Buying a big TV for £700 – even in the Amazon sales – was similarly hard for a lifelong saver.

But spending £140 a year to own a great TV (assuming a five-year lifespan) was palatable.

Again, for most of you this is trivial stuff. For me it was a breakthrough.

5. Consider the Joneses…

I thought of other people and what they owned and spent far more during this period.

Thinking of how certain better-off friends had been through this spending cycle several times – they were onto their fourth home and at least their third sofa – made me appreciate it was normal.

I was still being sensible and frugal-minded, I told myself. I was only now getting to this, and I was mostly buying stuff that would last.

And I have no intention of moving again anytime soon.

Clearly this was a life-phase I had put off. The savings had been banked and compounded, but now it was time to spend.

6. …ignore the Kardashians

All that being said, I was careful whose example I looked to.

In your early years after leaving education, you and your mates are mostly in the same boat. But over time – definitely by your 30s – the divergences emerge.

Some of you are still trying to find your balance at the start of an egg-and-spoon race.

Others are halfway down the track and apparently competing in a different sport altogether.

So I was careful who I compared my spending against. For example I’m pleased a couple of my friends have made several million; I put them out of mind when furnishing my flat.

Obviously I also took no lessons from those who’d always lived well beyond their means.

7. In the long run we’re all dead

I have an old friend with a divergent life and location who I only see once every couple of years.

When we do meet up he never fails to remind me how a few years ago I said we’d probably only see each other another 20 times in our lives.

My friend was shocked by the maths. But I’m very future-orientated and think this way all the time.

Being forward-focused is why compound interest is my North Star, and Buffett’s Folly my downfall.

Everyone comes to understand their mortality sooner or later. Maybe it’s the death of a parent. Maybe it’s the Twitter thread I saw yesterday where someone else ran the numbers just as I do.

Thinking about how I’d waited 20 years to kit out my first home made it easier to get spending. But thinking how long I had left to enjoy it made me think – perhaps for the first time – about what I was really accumulating all this money for, beyond wanting to be financially free.

That’s a weighty subject for another day.

But life changes. Don’t put everything off forever.

Up the bracket

Nowadays I find it easier to spend money. Buying and furnishing my flat – helped by the tactics just detailed – seemed to break some kind of spell.

Today I’m more likely to buy something because I want it, rather than only when I need it.

I appreciate that I’m saying this from the privileged position of financial security. But I don’t feel any great shame about that.

I was fortunate to be born fairly smart and to good role models in a safe, capitalist country. But beyond that I’ve earned and saved every penny.

For many years I heard about friends’ swanky holidays, smiled at their new cars, and admired their shoes and handbags. All the time shopping myself for yellow-labelled food at the supermarket and bargain clothes at TK Maxx.

And guess what? I still enjoy a pot of marked-down pesto as much as I used to. I’m no spendthrift.

The difference is that today, if I really want to make some pasta and there are no bargains to hand, I’ve learned how to bite the bullet and just buy it.

Bon appetite!

Have you get on a mental tips or tricks to help with sensible spending? Please share them in the comments below.

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Weekend reading: It’s time to stop paying and pacifying polluters post image

What caught my eye this week.

They say you should never let a crisis go to waste. But in his Spring Statement Chancellor Rishi Sunak blew it with two crises at once.

Cutting fuel duty was a small, pointlessly populist move. Both the cost and consequences are pretty modest in the grand scheme of things.

But the message it sends is dire.

The cost of a cut

The AA reckons only half the fuel duty cut will be passed on to motorists. What’s left won’t make much difference to many households.

Maybe £100 a year saved on average for a one-car family.

The people and businesses who burn a lot of fuel driving will of course save more. But they are exactly the ones that the tax system should be nudging towards alternatives.

You might say the cost of living crisis is an emergency. Well let’s remember that only six months ago the UN dubbed the latest nightmare IPCC report on climate change ‘Code Red for Humanity’.

The scientific consensus is that burning fossil fuels is heating the planet. And while there’s more debate about the size and scale of the consequences, the precautionary principle should have us acting to reduce this warming at every turn.

The surging price of gas and oil is a perfect casus belli to put Britain on the kind of war footing required to remake us into a low-carbon economy.

That is ultimately what will best preserve our standard of living and prosperity.

Instead Sunak subsidises more fossil fuel burning to cheers from MPs.

Paying for Putin

I know a few Barry Blimps out there imagine themselves to be bold contrarians by refuting climate science.

Well whatever – because today even they have a glaring reason not to be encouraging the burning of more fossil fuels.

Obviously I’m talking about Russian’s war with Ukraine.

At the same time as taking unprecedented economic action against Putin’s kleptocracy, Europe is paying up to $1 billion a day for Russian fossil fuels.

This money props up the regime and the war. We’re not so much talking good cop / bad cop as a bad cop / whisk the prisoner away for a luxury weekend in Dubai cop.

This reliance should have been dialed back years ago. The second best time is now.

Unlike Europe, Britain gets little of its oil or gas directly from Russia. But it’s not nothing – about 3-5% of gas and 6-8% of crude oil. So our hands are not clean. Some of your pounds at the pump go to Putin.

Still, it’s little enough that we could credibly attempt to slash what we spend on Russian fossil fuels to zero, fast.

Take back control

Lopping even the maximum 5p fuel duty cut off a litre of petrol costing £1.65 represents about a 3% saving.

Would it have been so onerous to ask motorists to skip one trip out of 30, or to pursue some other fuel saving measure instead? I don’t think so.

Yes, the sums are relatively trivial. What matters more is the signal.

If we’re to tackle climate change without putting on the hair shirts some argue it’s already too late for, every decision must be the right one. A public gullible enough to vote for Brexit cannot be told this transition will be cost-less and painless. They will bridle at every new initiative.

Professional wrong-man Nigel Farage is already waiting in the wings with his next self-destructive campaign – a referendum to abandon our climate goals.

Farage might dream of the waters of the Straits of Dover rising. But anyone with kids – or a passing interest in the future of humanity – shouldn’t tolerate his bullshit twice.

I happen to agree that in the long-term – as Boris Johnson said recently“green electricity isn’t just better for the environment, it’s better for your bank balance.”

But in the medium-term it will be a costly and disruptive transition. We need to take this seriously. The public must know there’s work to do and a bill to pay. As many as possible must buy into it.

To quote the UN Secretary-General again, the knee-jerk rush for alternative fossil fuels in response to the Russia-Ukraine war is “madness” that will derail our already-insufficient climate goals.

It’s no surprise to see a man with Johnson’s moral compass dash off to to Saudi Arabia to seek to replace one murderous autocrat with another.

But as a nation we must do better.

Where’s my tax cut?

Around this point somebody is typing a comment saying that living in my ivory tower – um, in a two-bed flat in a London suburb – I don’t get the pressure the average person faces due to inflation.

Never mind that I read and link every weekend to various articles about exactly these pressures.

I’ll just conclude by pointing out that the fuel duty cut isn’t even fair by that measure.

Many people don’t drive. So they won’t benefit directly from a fuel duty cut. But they’ll pay for it via taxes.

Many people can cut back on non-essential driving. They can’t cut back on, I don’t know, food. Yet they’ll pay for the fuel duty cut for motorists.

The fuel duty cut is a specific tax break for an activity that threatens our financial future due to climate change – and maybe even our corporal one given the worst-case scenario from Russia.

Fuel rationing via a national speed limit or driving curfews or surcharges would have been fairer.

Alternatively, the money spent on cutting fuel duty could have gone instead on free public transport.

Then again much of the country is less well-served than London by public transport – another problem to fix, not a reason to support fossil fuel subsidies – so perhaps Sunak could have just sent everyone a cheque for their share of the £2.4bn cost of his fuel duty cut?

That way we could each ease the pressure on our finances however we saw fit.

Have a great weekend.

[continue reading…]

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How to estimate care home costs

How to estimate care home costs post image

This is part four in a series on how to plan and pay for the cost of social care in later life.

Part one covered the gulf between genuine care needs and State provision. 

Next part two untangled how the means test values your assets (including pension and property) and when it excludes them. 

Part three explained when you qualify for State funding and when you don’t.

Now we’ll help you estimate an average care home cost that can be used to stress-test your retirement plans.

When I retired, I didn’t know if my financial plan could withstand years of one of us living in a care home. I just crossed my fingers and hoped that we’d never need to find out.

Or perhaps we could sell our house if there was no other way?

In retrospect, that was no plan at all. And now I’ve dug into it, I’ve found the data does exist to formulate a plausible lifetime cost for social care. 

In this post, I’ll show you how to construct your own number. You can then model how your own retirement finances stack up against the hard realities of the UK social care system. 

I’ll focus on the cost of funding a care home because that’s the nightmare scenario that can suck your own home into the means-testing mix. 

But I’ll present care in the home data at the end, too.

Caveat corner – Any number we come up with will necessarily be a crude average. Obviously the future cost of social care for any individual is unknowable. But as ever, it’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong. The number we can conjure is informed by the best data available, and the exercise itself sheds valuable light on some of the challenges you may face. Demystifying the social care financial threat has reduced my fear of this unknown, and left me better equipped to negotiate it, should it affect me or my loved ones. Note we’ll root our numbers in today’s prices. Even if the spectre of social care lies decades in your future, your assumptions must rest on how your financial plan deals with the system as it exists today.

How to calculate care home costs

Here’s the process:

  • Take the average annual cost of a UK care home place
  • Multiply by life expectancy once in a care home
  • Up-weight by care home fee inflation 
  • Customise by gender, age, type of care (nursing and dementia care both increase cost), and geographic area to account for the postcode lottery

The average annual care home cost is:

£34,944

That number comes courtesy of Which and Paying For Care.1 Their source is LaingBuisson’s Care Homes For Older People UK Market Report

The report is an annual snapshot of the care homes market produced by business intelligence firm LaingBuisson. The data is widely used in the social care sector, including by the UK Government. 

Note that £34,944 is far from a worst-case scenario. 

The ‘average’ worst-case scenario is dementia care in a south-west of England nursing home: £58,864.

That’s £4,000 more expensive than the same care in a south-east of England nursing home. 

The best case is the £28,392 cost of a care home in Northern Ireland – no nursing care or dementia care included.

Paying For Care enables you to customise costs by region and care type.  

Terminology tee-up – Care homes typically offer personal care. That’s a defined and regulated service that supports people with tasks such as washing, dressing, and going to the toilet. Nursing homes are registered to provide care that requires a nurse. Dementia care is another service again. In reality, this distinction by provision is not clear-cut. A single care home may provide all these services.

Add the self-funder premium

The care home industry’s worst-kept secret is that those paying from their own pocket (self-funders) are charged more for the same care, in the same homes, as state-funded residents.

That’s because local authorities – grappling with squeezed budgets – use their buying power to pay the care homes less than the market rate. 

The squeezed care homes then make up the shortfall by squeezing self-funders.  

Yes, it’s another hidden tax2 that props up social care so long as our politicians fail to fix the system. 

Back to the data. 

The £34,944 average annual care home cost combines state-funded and self-funded places. 

So we must add a self-funder premium – because few of us will qualify for local authority support until our assets have been rundown. 

How much is the self-funder premium? 

The premium is north of 40% according to the House Of Commons briefing paper: Social care: care home market – structure, issues, and cross-subsidisation.

The paper quotes an average premium of 43% from a LaingBuisson white paper and 41% as reported by The Competition and Markets Authority. 

I don’t know how exactly LaingBuisson’s £34,944 splits between state and self-funded residents. So we’ll assume fifty-fifty. 

The actual proportion of the self-funded care home population (in England) lies somewhere between 40% to 52%, depending on the source you look at.  

Multiplying the 40% self-funder premium by our 50% self-funded population assumption means LaingBuisson’s £34,944 care home cost should be about 20% higher than the State-funded figure. 

So we increase £34,944 by 16.67% to find our self-funded care home cost. 

£34,944 x 1.167 = £40,780, which is the self-funded average annual cost of a UK care home.

That’s 40% higher than the average state-funded UK care home cost of £29,117. 

If you choose a different figure from Paying For Care’s table then multiply by 1.167 to add the self-funder premium. 

Life expectancy in a care home

Now we multiply our £40,780 figure by the number of years we can expect to live in a care home. 

Life expectancy data comes from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) report Life expectancy in care homes, England and Wales: 2011 to 2012.3

Life expectancy for care home residents aged between 85 and 89 is:

  • Four years for women
  • Three years for men

I’ve chosen the 85 to 89 cohort because your chances of going into a care home are relatively low before you reach that age. (That’s according to the ONS report Changes in the Older Resident Care Home Population between 2001 and 2011.)

The table below details the proportion of the total population living in care homes (England and Wales) calculated by the ONS:

A table that shows the proportion of the population that lives in care homes from age 65+If you’re a man feeling a bit smug about the differential from age 85, don’t think it’s because you’re a tough guy. 

It’s most likely because a female carer has traditionally kept your sort out of care homes. Females don’t enjoy the same T.L.C., because men typically don’t last as long.  

(Or because men are too selfish – I see you at the back!)

Actually, female numbers in care homes declined 2001-2011, despite an aging population. The ONS thinks it’s because men are pulling their weight more as carers as the female/male life expectancy gap closes. 

There’s also some evidence that better health in later life – plus an increasing preference for care at home – could offset the rise in frailty that accompanies extended lifespans. 

Therefore, if you decide to tweak the life expectancy figures because you’re youthful – and so will likely live longer than previous generations – it’s reasonable to add a lower uplift than implied by your birthday. 

Care home cost inflation 

The £40,780 care home cost must also be multiplied by inflation for every year of life expectancy in care beyond the first. 

More realistically, we should multiply by an annual rate of care home price rises – which I’ll estimate at around 5%. 

My care home price inflation figure is partially derived from healthcare charity The King’s Fund. It estimated that the cost of care home places rose by 12% above inflation from 2015-16 to 2019-20.

That works out as approximately a 3% annual rate above inflation. Adding that figure to average UK consumer price inflation (CPI) of 2.5% gets us to 5.5%. 

But I round down to 5% annually in the hope that the political pressure to improve social care takes the steam out of costs eventually. Moreover, Monevator writer and finance industry insider, The Planalyst, tells me that care home inflation is around 5% annually in her experience. 

Paying For Care assumes an annual fee increase of 3%. So use that if you’re more optimistic than me. 

The cost of a care home: putting it all together

Let’s tally the bill:

  • The average care home cost is £34,944. 
  • £34,944 x 1.167 self-funder premium = £40,780
  • Men: multiply that number by your three year life expectancy in a care home. 
  • Women: multiply that number by your four year life expectancy in a care home. 
  • Multiply every year after the first by an additional 1.05 to factor in 5% care home cost inflation. 

By my sums:

The total average care home cost for a man is £128,558

The total average care home cost for a woman is £175,765.

That might not seem so bad, but…

It could be worse

…depressingly, I’ve uncovered reasons to think I’ve under-cooked these numbers. 

Care homes often charge extra for services such as wi-fi, outings, transport, and carer support to attend dentist, GP, or hospital appointments. 

Please read this excellent report by Citizens Advice on hidden care home charges if you ever need to choose residential care.

The new social care cap won’t ride to the rescue

If you’re living in England, you might hope the lifetime cap of £86,000 will cut your losses. 

But many of us won’t live long enough to hit the cap. 

That’s because swathes of your social care spending is officially excluded from your £86,000 total. 

A year one £40,780 care home cost looks like a huge dent in your £86,000 at first glance.

But you only move £18,717 towards the target after deductions

Most egregiously, it’s not the amount you paid for the care home place that counts. It’s the amount your local authority would have paid for that place. If it was paying for it! Which it’s not.

Calculating social care cap progress

To estimate the local authority rate, multiply £40,780 by 0.714 to give £29,117.

That’s the the state-funded price for your care home place. 

(Remember, we’re assuming the average self-funded care home cost is 40% higher than its state-funded equivalent.)

Deduct another £10,400 for Daily Living Costs (DLCs). The government has stated that you’ll be responsible for this amount per year – before and after hitting the cap. 

(We covered the ‘logic’ of that in part one of the series.)

£29,117 minus £10,400 = £18,717 progress made towards the social care cap in your first year in a care home. 

Now multiply that figure by your life expectancy and inflation (I assume the state rate and DLCs increase by 3% a year). 

The total is your contribution towards the £86,000 cap by the time your ongoing concern with this life is a coin flip:

Men’s social care contribution after three years is £57,888 – £28,000 short of the cap. 

Women’s social care contribution after four years is £78,353 – £8,000 short of the cap. 

If you do qualify for partial state funding along the way then that expenditure doesn’t count towards your cap either. 

Thus while state funding sounds like a win, it could crush your disposable income after you’ve paid your care home costs, because it delays the point at which the cap comes into play. 

I’ve modelled how a modest retirement income fares against the cold comfort of the social care funding system. Stay tuned for that in the next post in this series.

How to estimate care at home costs

You can estimate care at home costs using the UK Homecare Association’s minimum price for homecare

The Association has set the minimum rate for professional homecare at £23.20 per hour. (The rate based on the living wage is £24.08 per hour.)

Multiply the hourly rate by common amounts of daily care at home.

For example:

  • Two hours per day: £24.08 x 2 x 7 x 52 = £17,530 annually
  • Four hours per day: £35,000 annually
  • Live-in care 24/7: £210,363 annually

Note care at home agencies often charge for extras such as unsociable hours and cancellations. (The Which website has a good piece on the hidden charges.)

I haven’t found life expectancy data that specifically covers people receiving care at home. 

You could adapt this ONS report on Disability-Free Life Expectancy in England

The crude headline is women can expect to live 18.5 years with a disability later in life, while men can expect 15 years. 

The report is nuanced however. And there’s no evidence that its definition of a disability is a good proxy for requiring care at home. 

Personally, I’d use a 3% to 5% inflation rate in the absence of specific care at home data on this point. 

Care home cost impact assessment

Pitting this cost model against my own retirement finances was eye-opening. The remorseless logic of social care funding forces you to sell off assets before you get any help. 

State intervention began within two years. But this still left me with little leftover money to top up the bare bones care package.

I’ll go into the gory details in the next post.  

And do remember the only certain thing about the costs I’ve presented is that they will be wrong

Your actual care home costs will depend on:

  • The care home you choose
  • The care you need – which can change over time
  • How long you need care
  • The actual rate of social care inflation
  • The generosity of State provision at the time

But most of all, I hope the number will be wrong because you and yours never need social care. 

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

Bonus appendix: social care funding – the diagram

This flowchart graphically simplifies the complexities of the social care system. I hope it helps you follow this series.

A social care flow chart that shows the various options, decision points and thresholds along the journey.
  1. Paying For Care is a consumer-facing website funded by Just Group plc. Just Group is a financial services company focused on retirement income products such as annuities and equity release. []
  2. As discussed in Parliament. Key quote from Baroness Browning: “I still find it bizarre that we have this subsidy in residential care… whereby self-funders subsidise those for whom the local authority purchases care. There is never any discussion around this. We do not talk about how fair it is. There is no discussion about the fact that individuals who find they have to self-fund are not paying just their weekly fees, but are also subsidising the person in the next room, or possibly even more than one person. I really think it is time that we exposed how the funding system for care works. It is like having a secret tax that nobody knows about. I find that quite abhorrent.” []
  3. This report is based on 2011 census data. It’ll be interesting to see how it changes when the 2021 census numbers are crunched. []
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