≡ Menu

Monevator Private Investor Market Roundup: October 2012

Monevator Private Investor Roundup

I’m very pleased to welcome back RIT, with his latest roundup of the past three months’ movements in the most important asset classes. When not generously crunching numbers for Monevator, he runs Retirement Investing Today. Take it away RIT!

There have been some big moves over the past quarter in many of the markets we track – markets that we’ve chosen to help us understand our portfolios’ moves, and maybe to flag up a bargain!

These latest market shifts might have been caused by:

  • Mario Draghi, the ECB president, telling us he will do “whatever it takes” to save the Euro.
  • Ben Bernanke, US Fed chairman, announcing QE3. (Or should that be QE Infinity? I can’t find a reference to any eventual limit to the $40 billion that Bernanke will create every month to buy mortgage-backed securities).
  • No new UK government initiatives to support house prices, other than Nick Clegg’s proposed pension for property plan.
  • UK company earnings falling – by my calculations they look to be down about 7% quarter-on-quarter.
  • Poor wheat harvests in the UK and US, as well as drought in the US leading to a predicted 30% drop in the soya bean harvest.

I definitely don’t claim to know everything that might be moving the markets (more the opposite!) so if you’d finger any other macro events that occurred over the past quarter, please do share them in the comments below.

Disclaimer: I must point out that what follows is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and is for educational purposes only. I’m just an Average Joe and I’m certainly not a Financial Planner.

Your first time with this data? Please refer back to the first article in this series for full details on what assets we track in the Private Investor Market Roundup, and how and why.

International equities

Our first stop is stock market information for ten key countries 1.

The countries we highlight are the ten biggest by gross domestic product (GDP). They also represent the countries that a reader following a typical asset allocation strategy will probably allocate most of their funds towards.

Here’s our a snapshot of the state-of-play with each country:

(Click to enlarge)

The prices (i.e. the various stock market levels) shown in the table are the FTSE Global Equity Index Series for each respective country, taken on the first possible day of each quarter. 2 The prices in the table are all in US Dollars, which enables like-for-like comparisons across the different countries, without having to worry about exchange rates between them.

The Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio) and Dividend Yield for each country is as published by the Financial Times and sourced from Thomson Reuters. Note that these values relate only to a sample of stocks, albeit covering at least 75% of each country’s market capitalisation.

Here’s a few interesting snippets:

  • Best performer: In price terms Germany is the best performer, both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, rising 12.9% and 29.1% respectively.
  • Worst performer: Japan took this dubious honour. The stock markets of all the other countries we track are up nominally both on a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis. But Japan saw small falls of -2.1% and -1.3% respectively.
  • P/E rating: Italy saw big P/E increases, up 26.2% on the quarter and up 62.1% on the year. This comes on the back of its market rising over those periods by 7.5% and 3.4% respectively – a disparity that tells you that the earnings of Italy’s companies are falling fast. Japan saw its P/E drop 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, but rise 2.2% year-on-year.
  • Dividend yields: If you’re saving for the long term, whether it be for retirement or some other long term goal, dividends matter. Italy currently has the largest dividend yield at 4.4%. However this is down 10.2% on the quarter. France also saw its dividend yield fall – it’s down 17.4% on the year.

Remember that – all other things being equal – falling prices increase dividend yields. So rising yields aren’t necessarily good news for existing holders, since they usually indicate prices have fallen. 3 A higher yield might indicate a more attractive entry point for new money, however.

With Francois Hollande’s socialist government in France recently announcing an additional EUR10 billion of taxes on business in 2013, we could see dividend payouts cut, and hence dividend yields potentially fall further in that country.

Of course, French share prices could also fall to compensate. That’s because instead of EUR10 billion of earnings going to either company re-investment, which could help French shares in the longer term, or else being returned to the shareholder as dividends, we will instead see the money simply siphoned off to the French government.

The largest increase in dividend yield came from Russia, where the yield was up 5.1% quarterly and 57.7% yearly. This is an usual case, where the large increase in yield has come about because of far higher dividend payouts from Russian companies – at the urging of President Vladimir Putin.

Longer term equity trends

To see how our ten countries are performing price wise over the longer term, we track what we call the Country Real Share Price.

This takes the FTSE Global Equity Price for each country, adjusts it for the devaluation of currency through inflation, and resets all of the respective indices to 100 at the start of 2008.

Here’s how the countries have performed since then, in inflation-adjusted terms:

Graph showing our country-specific real terms share price index

(Click to enlarge)

The graph reveals that in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, not one of the countries we follow has yet seen its stock market rise to new real highs.

The US is closest at 92.7. Italy has done the worst, at 32.6.

Spotlight on UK and US equities

I couldn’t talk about share prices without looking at the cyclically-adjusted PE ratio (aka PE10 or CAPE). If you’re not familiar with it, you can read more about the cyclically-adjusted PE ratio elsewhere on Monevator.

The charts below detail the CAPE 4, the P/E, and the real, inflation-adjusted prices for the FTSE 100 5 and the S&P 500 6.

(Click to enlarge)

 

(Click to enlarge)

Some thoughts:

  • Today the S&P500 P/E (which includes some estimates) is at 16.2, while the CAPE is at 21.5. This compares to the CAPE long run average of 16.5 since 1881. This could suggest the S&P500 is overvalued by 30%, which is up slightly on last quarter’s overvaluation estimate of 29%.
  • The FTSE100 P/E (again using as reported earnings) is 11.2 and the CAPE is 12.0. Averaging the CAPE since 1993 reveals a figure of 19.2. This could suggest the FTSE100 is undervalued by 37%.

I personally use the CAPE as a valuation metric for both of these markets, and use the CAPE data to make investment decisions with my own money. I put my money where my mouth is!

On the other hand, some investors are skeptical about the usefulness of the CAPE.

House prices

A house is the largest single purchase that most Monevator readers will ever make. Property is also a big influence on other sectors of the economy, and rising prices are seen as a key ingredient in the so-called ‘feel-good factor’ (although those shut out by higher prices might feel less jolly…)

For this roundup, I calculate the average of the Nationwide and Halifax house price indices, as follows:

(Click to enlarge)

If you don’t already own a home, the quarterly news is all good, with prices down 0.9%. Annually the news is also good – prices over the year are also down 0.9%.

If you own a property, you’re probably not so thrilled.

The next house price chart shows a longer-term view of my Nationwide-Halifax average. I adjust for inflation, to show a true historically-leveled view:

(Click to enlarge)

In real terms, house prices continue to fall. House prices are now back to approximately February 2003 levels.

In my opinion these nominal and real falls are good news. I believe the market is still-overvalued, although I’m sure the majority of the British public don’t necessarily agree.

If falling prices continue (or even accelerate) we might one day see the UK property market return to normality, with sensible transaction volumes and first-time buyers able to enter the market without schemes like the Lib Democrats’ ‘pension for property’ scheme that I mentioned earlier.

Nick Clegg’s scheme is in my opinion just another lame attempt to shore up the property market. If it goes ahead, my feelings go out to those unfortunate first-time buyers who either don’t have parents, or whose parents don’t have a pension pot to raid. I just wish the UK government would leave the property market well alone.

I’ll stop there or this could turn into a rant. I can get away with that on my own blog, but I’m sure The Investor won’t let me get away with it on his!

Commodities

Few private investors trade commodities directly. However commodity prices will still affect you, and your investments.

With that in mind, I’ve selected five commodities to regularly review. They are the top five constituents of the ETF Securities All Commodities ETF, which aims to track the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index. 7

(Click to enlarge)

Quarter-on-quarter we see soya bean prices rose a substantial 19.6%, and annually we see them up 24.2%. Natural gas also saw some big moves, up 16.6% on the quarter, but down 30% annually.

My preferred commodity for investment purposes is gold. That’s not because I’m a gold bug, but because I don’t want to worry about contango/backwardation, and because I don’t own (and don’t want to pay someone who does own) a tanker, silo, or a large warehouse!

Gold is down 7.4% year-on-year.

Real commodity price trends

Much as I did with equities, I have created a Real Commodity Price Index that we can track over the long-term.

This index looks at commodities priced in US dollars, is corrected for inflation so that we can see real price changes, and resets the basket of five commodities to the start of 2000.

(Click to enlarge)

You can see that gold continues to be the star performer since 2000 – it’s up over 400%. On the other hand the under-performer, natural gas, remains below par at 86.5.

Wrapping up

So that’s the second Monevator Private Investor Market Roundup. I hope it’s given you a small insight into the market’s trials and tribulations over the previous quarter. As always it would be great to hear your comments if you have anything to share.

Finally, as I always say on my own blog, please Do Your Own Research.

For more of RIT’s analysis of stock markets, house prices, interest rates, and much else, visit his website at Retirement Investing Today.

  1. Country equity data was taken as of the first possible working day of each month except for October 2012, which was taken on the 28 September 2012.[]
  2. Published by the Financial Times and sourced from FTSE International Limited.[]
  3. High yields can also indicate higher dividend cash payouts by companies, which act to increase the yield even if the price stays the same.[]
  4. Latest prices for the two CAPEs presented are the 28 September 2012 market closes.[]
  5. UK CAPE uses CPI with September and October 2012 estimated.[]
  6. US CPI data for September and October 2012 is estimated.[]
  7. The data itself comes from the International Monetary Fund.[]
{ 10 comments }

The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q3 2012

The portfolio is up 7.45% on the year to date.

Ever since we started tracking the Slow & Steady portfolio, I’ve been able to fill up my notepad with pages of economic woe between updates.

And even though real news – such as which semi-naked royal has been caught in front of a zoom lens this time – is now making a comeback, my trusty misery detector tells me:

  • The US economy grows like a malnourished child whose mum smoked 60 a day during the pregnancy.
  • Europe and the UK continue to wallow in recession, while Spain dithers over its bailout.
  • Food prices are on the rise after US crops wilted during the summer drought.
  • Petrol prices tick up every time the Israelis and Iranians beat their chests.
  • Emerging market growth has sagged.

But all that creeping doubt was blown away by Draghi’s promise to hoover up European debt, the Fed priming the QE3 pump, and Britain coming third in the Olympic medal table.

How else do you explain the Slow & Steady portfolio’s surge to an all-time high of a 5.22% gain since purchase? That’s a year-to-date gain of 7.45% and a 14% improvement on the situation 12 months ago.

If we fancied a Demi Moore-style roll in our riches, then we’d be smothering ourselves in a pile £391.77 deep!

These are heady days, my friends.

The portfolio is up by 5.22%

The Slow & Steady portfolio is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000. An extra £750 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, heavily tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and catch up on all the previous passive portfolio posts here.

Still, the annualised gain of 2.56% means we’re down after inflation. That means we’re not doing any better than an instant access savings account.

Hey, where did Demi go?

We must learn to enjoy this period of stagnation as an exercise in self-discipline, remembering Warren Buffett’s observation that, “The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.”

News slash

One development I was hoping for was a cut in our cost base, after HSBC announced major price slashery for its index funds.

However, as usual, the investment picture is about as clear as a smartphone contract covered in mud. HSBC have not cut the Ongoing Charge Figure (OCF) – the new name for TER –  for the retail index funds we’re familiar with in the Slow and Steady portfolio.

Instead, they’ve created a new incarnation of their index funds, called the C class. The OCFs are very low – try 0.18% for the FTSE All Share index C fund.

DIY investors can get these funds from some execution-only brokers that use Cofunds to power their platform.

So far, I’ve found the C class funds via Clubfinance and Commshare. However, other Cofunds platforms like Cavendish Online and Bestinvest aren’t registering the C class online yet.

This may change and you may get a better result if you phone directly. I’m going to do some more digging into this and report back next week.

However the whole point of the C class is that HSBC have stripped out any allowances for platform fees from the OCF. That’s why the funds are so cheap, that’s why they’re referred to as ‘clean’. (Hmm, that’s probably what C class stands for?)

I personally find it difficult to believe that any platform isn’t going to levy some kind of fee on top for hosting these funds. Otherwise they’re not going to make any money.

So until the confusion fog clears, the Slow & Steady portfolio will stick with the regular retail versions of the HSBC index funds. And, sadly, the OCF has actually crept up on all six of our equity funds. The average OCF of our portfolio is now 0.37%, up from 0.35%.

That’s still going to be cheaper for most small investors than the Vanguard LifeStrategy ready-made option, once you take into account platform fees. But the gap is closing.

Incoming

On a cheerier note, we were blessed by the chinkity-chink of tiny dividends rolling into our kitty.

The Slow & Steady Portfolio is invested in accumulation funds that automatically reinvest our dividends, but it still helps to know that we’re benefiting from a little corporate largesse every now and then.

Our funds yielded the following payouts last quarter:

  • HSBC American Index: £24.98
  • HSBC European Index: £28.40
  • HSBC FTSE All Share Index: £23.86
  • HSBC Japan Index: £6.28 (Wow. Thanks, Japan)
  • HSBC Pacific Index: £9.80
  • L&G All Stocks Gilt Index: £19.43
  • L&G Global Emerging Markets Index: £15.20
  • Total income: £127.95

Comparing that £127.95 payout against our total portfolio gain of £391.77 (which includes our reinvested income) only serves to underline the importance of dividends to a portfolio’s growth story.

New purchases

Every quarter we offer another £750 to the money gods.

UK equity

HSBC FTSE All Share Index – OCF 0.28%
Fund identifier: GB0000438233

New purchase: £125.13
Buy 34.8937 units @ 358.6p

Target allocation: 19%

OCF has gone up from 0.27% to 0.28%.

Developed World ex UK equities

Split between four funds covering North America, Europe, the developed Pacific and Japan.

Target allocation (across the following four funds): 49%

North American equities

HSBC American Index – OCF 0.3%
Fund identifier: GB0000470418

New purchase: £204.67
Buy 96.1788 units @ 212.8p

Target allocation: 26.5%

OCF has gone up from 0.28% to 0.3%.

European equities excluding UK

HSBC European Index – OCF 0.35%
Fund identifier: GB0000469071

New purchase: £41.93
Buy 9.3879 units @ 446.6

Target allocation: 12.5%

OCF has gone up from 0.31% to 0.35%.

Japanese equities

HSBC Japan Index – OCF 0.33%
Fund identifier: GB0000150374

New purchase: £70.92
Buy 124.8750 units @ 56.79p

Target allocation: 5%

OCF has gone up from 0.29% to 0.33%.

Pacific equities excluding Japan

HSBC Pacific Index – OCF 0.46%
Fund identifier: GB0000150713

New purchase: £27.90
Buy 11.881 units @ 234.8p

Target allocation: 5%

OCF has gone up from 0.37% to 0.46%.

Emerging market equities

Legal & General Global Emerging Markets Index Fund – OCF 1.06%
Fund identifier: GB00B4MBFN60

New purchase: £66.863
Buy 148.0580 units @ 45.16p

Target allocation: 10%

OCF has gone up from 0.99% to 1.06%.

UK Gilts

L&G All Stocks Gilt Index Trust: OCF 0.23%
Fund identifier: GB0002051406

New purchase: £212.6006
Buy 114.24 units @ 186.1p

Target allocation: 22%

Total cost = £750

Trading cost = £0

Platform fees = £0

Average portfolio OCF = 0.37% up from 0.35

A reminder on rebalancing: This portfolio is rebalanced to target asset allocations every quarter, mostly using new contributions. It’s no problem to do this, since the vanilla index funds we’ve gone for do not incur trading costs, so long as you choose the right platform.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

{ 19 comments }
Weekend reading

Good reads from around the Web.

Next week my co-writer The Accumulator is back from his month-long blogging holiday (as opposed to a real holiday – we know he only enjoys short breaks to abandoned seaside towns in the North).

To celebrate his return, I’ve decided to reformat these regular Saturday links in order to separate the passive and active articles.

While The Accumulator tells me he enjoys reading (and presumably chuckling over) the active stuff – in fact, he thought I shouldn’t turn the blog into a passive-only site when I mooted it earlier this year – I do worry the active links are noise for sensible index investors focusing on the really important stuff like asset allocation, cutting costs, and counter-party risk. And getting out more.

So for a while at least, I’ll try splitting these out, for both the blog links and the mainstream media links, to facilitate easier scanning.

Doing so does remind me how few passive articles there are for UK investors. No wonder our passive investing HQ is so popular!

[continue reading…]

{ 9 comments }
Trade as rarely as a tortoise and you could reduce your capital gains tax bill

Despite my enthusiasm for tax shelters, I didn’t get religious about taking up my annual ISA allowance until 2003.

As a result I hold a lot of unprotected shares that are liable for tax on dividends and on capital gains.

More fool me!

If you’re a higher-rate taxpayer, you can’t escape being taxed on dividends outside of tax shelters, short of earning less income to take you down a tax bracket. Rather counterproductive.

A better solution is to invest in non-dividend paying shares outside of tax shelters and to hold your income shares inside them.

But it’s not as good a solution as using tax shelters for everything in the first place!

With capital gains, you have more flexibility. As a semi-active investor, I’ve been using my annual CGT allowance to defuse taxable gains. I’ve then used the proceeds to fund next year’s ISA allowance. 1

I’ve also offset gains with losses (like all investors I definitely have my share).

In the past I’ve even turned to VCTs for tax relief, though I wouldn’t recommend it. Some wealthy individuals might also consider Enterprise Investment Schemes.

Meet an investor who never trades

There is another way to deal with capital gains. It’s a method of tax avoidance beloved of Warren Buffett, who has touted the strategy many times.

The idea to sit on your gains – i.e. not sell them – for as long as you can, in order to put off crystallizing your tax bill.

You may be surprised by how much this can reduce the tax you pay.

Let’s consider a hypothetical investor. His name? I don’t know – Indolent Eric.

Indolent Eric receives £10,000 from an insurance company, because he was too lazy to wear his seat belt during a turbulent aircraft landing and so was bumped on the head by a passing slice of cheesecake.

“What shall I do with the loot?” Eric asks his friend, Flamboyant Freddie. “I really can’t be bothered with all this bother.”

Freddie suggests Eric buys shares in a particular investment trust. This trust doesn’t pay a dividend.

Eric does what Freddie recommends, mainly because he can’t muster up the energy to research anything else. He then forgets all about it.

Naturally, Eric doesn’t use tax shelters – it sounds too much like hard work.

Let’s say Eric doesn’t look at his shares for 20 years, and that over that time they deliver a 10% annual return.

That’s the same return, conveniently for our purposes, as Flamboyant Freddie, who buys and sells shares in a normal account and pays taxes. It’s also the same as Canny Christine, who holds her investments in an ISA. (You may remember these characters from my earlier article on how tax reduces your returns).

Since Eric does not trade his shares and they pay no dividend, he pays no tax over the years. The trust’s share price – and thus his holding’s value – just zigzags higher over the two decades.

No tax to pay (yet) for 20 years of doing nothing

A quick calculation reveals that after the 20-years are up, Eric’s investment is worth £67,275.

That’s exactly the same amount as Canny Christine, who traded shares and received dividends to get to her 10% per year return – but who did it in an ISA so also paid no tax.

So far so good for Eric’s lazy strategy.

Flamboyant Freddie also generated a gross 10% annual return trading shares, but he paid taxes every year.

Freddie therefore ends up with just £42,479, which is much less than his untaxed friends. (See my previous article for the maths).

Deferring capital gains reduces the final tax bill

Indolent Eric’s investment has done well, but he has a problem. He’s too tired to go to work anymore, and he needs a luxury waterbed to laze about on all day once he quits.

Only now does Eric remember his investment! He logs in via his iPad 13 and sees his shares are now worth £67,275.

Naturally he rushes to sell (over a period of weeks, punctuated with three-hour TV sessions and a bout of hibernation).

When Eric eventually does sell, the ‘rolled-up’ capital gain that has been accruing over the decades finally becomes due.

Let’s say Eric pays tax on capital gains at 20% – a fictitious rate I’ve chosen to keep the maths simple. 2

Eric doesn’t pay tax on the £10,000 he first invested, only on the gains, so:

  • Taxable gain = £67,275 minus £10,000 = £57,275
  • CGT tax due is 20% of £57,275 = £11,455
  • After-tax sum = £67,275 minus £11,455 = £55,820

Eric’s final pot of £55,820 is a pretty good result from doing nothing for 20 years.

More pertinently, shoot back up the page and you’ll be reminded that tax-paying Freddie – who earned the same 10% return per year, but who paid tax every year – ended up with £42,479.

By delaying paying tax for 20 years, Eric ends up with 31% more money than Freddie even after he settles his tax bill – despite earning the same 10% per year return!

Deferring capital gains: Another miracle of compound interest

How did this happen?

Well, Eric has effectively had a loan from the taxman every year that he delayed paying tax – a loan equivalent to the tax he would have paid that year.

Each year’s ‘loan’ has gone on to compound alongside his initial investment. Even though this pseudo-loan and the gains on it are taxed at the end of 20 years, the maths mean it all adds up to a higher tally.

Like Warren Buffett, I think that’s a pretty good deal for doing nothing – if you can find a share you’re happy to hold for 20 years.

Doing nothing will obviously reduce your trading costs enormously, too.

You might even see a better result, depending on your circumstances. In some cases it might be possible to pay a lower rate of tax on gains in the future than you would have paid in previous years.

For example, when you begin to sell down your holding, you might start liquidating just a portion of your rolled-up investment each year – an amount that keeps you under the annual capital gains tax threshold – in order to release funds without paying tax on them.

Alternatively, you might pay a lower rate of capital gains tax because your annual income fell when you retired.

Remember, too, that tax policy can and does change.

Even though the UK government no longer treats long-term capital gains more favourably than short-term gains via lower tax rates, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this change again in the future, for instance.

Taxi!

The bottom line is there’s plenty of ways to legally and easily avoiding paying tax on your investments, and that doing so can make a big impact on your returns.

For all but the wealthiest, ISAs and pensions are the easiest way to do this. Using them needn’t change how or what you invest in – so you’re not letting tax concerns interfere with your other investing priorities.

Beyond that, you can use CGT avoidance strategies, such as the one I’ve outlined here, to further reduce the tax you pay.

Even if you’re an active share trader with holdings outside of ISAs and pensions who can’t abide the idea of owning a share for a month let alone years, you can consider spreadbetting to avoid paying tax.

Best of all, none of these tax avoidance methods involve dodgy off-shore schemes, or paying an adviser to put you into an opaque product you don’t understand.

Work out your real tax bill

Do you think I’m too determined to avoid being taxed on my share gains?

Well, if you pay tax on your investment gains or income, try sticking the amount you hand over into a compound interest calculator, then set it to grow for two or three decades.

You’ll find that a significantly bigger number is returned.

That’s what paying tax on your share gains is really costing you!

  1. Sadly I am saving and growing my money faster than I can fill my ISAs, so I will never catch up now. Learn from my former folly![]
  2. I am fully aware of the real-world CGT rates. Please see my comments in my first article on paying tax on investments to understand to why I am using this arbitrary rate.[]
{ 3 comments }