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Warren Buffett is a nifty picker of stocks. In hiring Ted Weschler to help select investments at Berkshire Hathaway, he’s turned out to be a nifty stockpicker-picker, too.

Buffett would hardly have hired a bozo – it was nailed-on that former hedge fund manager Weschler could pluck an Apple or an Amazon from the also-runs.

But new figures prove Ted Weschler has some truly serious investing smarts.

DIY tax haven

Ted Weschler’s returns have surfaced after a huge kerfuffle in the US about Roth IRAs – a kind of retirement tax shelter that’s closest to the UK’s ISA.

It turns out some savvy American moguls have managed to use these mainstream tax shelters to shelter vast fortunes from the taxman.

In particular, tech mogul/bogeyman Peter Thiel has amassed $5bn in his ‘retirement account for the middle class’, according to ProPublica.

Can you imagine if James Dyson, say, was revealed as having a billion pounds in his ISA?

Even million pound ISAs are mostly marketing pornography. A billion pound ISA would be the money shot to end them all.

Well more or less that’s what’s happened in the US.

Check out ProPublica for the details of how Thiel did it. The short version is he was able to stash a few thousand dollars in very cheap unlisted shares in a startup into his Roth IRA, and those multiplied into millions. His snowball supercharged into an avalanche. The rest is compound interest.

What Thiel did wouldn’t actually be possible in an ISA (sorry James!) due to restrictions on what you can hold in the UK vehicles.

If there’s a scandal, it would seem that – from my imperfect vantage point across the ocean – the Roth IRA rules weren’t sufficiently tight in the first place.

Weschler was here

So much, so Business As Usual for the taxes-are-optional uber-rich.

But the controversial $264m that Ted Weschler has similar been outed as having amassed in his Roth IRA is still notable for Monevator purposes.

You see, when ProPublica approached Weschler for comment about how he shoehorned all those millions into an account with tight contribution limits, he was (un)happy enough to tell them.

Weschler says that in the early years of his career he contributed to his employer’s IRA plan. He then converted it to a self-directed IRA, where he could make his own investments, claiming:

Over the ensuing 29 years (through the end date you quote of year-end 2018) I invested the account in only publicly-traded securities i.e., all investments in this account were investments that were available to the general public.

There follows some back and forth in the letter about US regulations and taxes that needn’t concern a humble investing blog in Blighty.

The key point is Weschler was picking from the same sort of stocks as a Reddit punter today. He wasn’t investing in unlisted microcap tech startups at the start of the Internet revolution.

And here’s the money shot:

…each $1 saved as a 22 year old in New York City grew over the ensuing 35 years to over $9,000 – certainly not an expected result, but the sort of example that can hopefully help motivate generations of future savers.

Well, quite. That is an extraordinary return!

In simple annualized terms it implies a near-30% return a year over 35 years.

Weschler smashed the market

I’m sure there were plenty of ups, downs, lucky breaks, and obscure – albeit still stock market-listed – investments in the mix for Weschler.

But to turn $1 into $9,000 in 35 years you have to be doing a lot very right.

The number of other famous investors who done as well over such a long period is not high.

  • Buffett clocks in at around 20% annualized, albeit he did much better in his early days with less money.
  • From memory George Soros comes in at around 20%, too.
  • Peter Lynch achieved about 30% in annual returns for his investors at Fidelity for a dozen years before hanging up his spurs.
  • Although… Joel Greenblatt, the professor and fund manager who wrote the wonderful You Can Be A Stock Market Genius has a private partnership Gotham Capital that boasts 40% returns.

You’re slacking, Ted!

Could you be the next Ted Weschler?

As this blog’s resident naughty active investor, am I inspired and motivated by Ted Weschler’s prowess, as he suggests we all could be in his letter?

Honestly, yes and no.

I’ve long known it’s possible for a small proportion of people to achieve market-beating returns. And I believe such outperformance is far likelier to be done by directly investing in shares – as opposed to by running or investing in funds, with their contradictory incentives and fee drags, respectively.

The trouble is it’s hard to get truly stonking rich without managing other people’s money, and taking and compounding that fee tithe for yourself.

That’s what makes Weschler’s returns so astounding.

In principle it shows what’s possible – at least if you started in 1985 and you’re either an investing savant or one of the luckiest people on the planet.

For context, if you could put the maximum £20,000 into an ISA every year for 35 years and achieve the same returns as Ted Weschler, you’d end up with…

£785,459,150!

Clearly that fails a few sanity checks as an aspirational stretch goal.

(Although I don’t doubt that – assuming no rule or contribution changes – we will eventually hear about £100m ISAs in my lifetime).

Many happy returns

I’ve been doing this for long enough to know that I’m not clocking up 30% returns annualized, and I’m never likely to, either.

So Weschler’s returns can only motivate me so far.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m pleased with my own record. And I’ve mostly enjoyed nearly 20 years of investing in individual shares. No regrets.

But am I set to turn £1 into £9,000 in 35 years? Reader – I’ll probably need a few more years than that!

People will want to draw lessons from Weschler’s achievement. Without seeing his trades in detail, the lessons are likely to be platitudes.

And of course most people will have a happier life and end up richer if they passively invest through index funds. Even Warren Buffett says that.

But at least I now know why Buffett called up Ted Weschler for the role at Berkshire Hathaway, rather than me!

p.s. We’ve finally transitioned to a new email system. As best I can tell it’s all working great, but I did delete some email addresses that were bouncing. If you have any problems, I’d suggest re-subscribing. Have a great weekend!

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Post-FIRE day update: three months in

Image of a FIRE, to signify post-FIRE life.

The post-FIRE ((Financial Independence Retire Early.)) day euphoria lasted two weeks. My spirit level of happiness flattened out after a fortnight.

At that point I realised the novelty of life without work had worn off.

So this was it. The place I’d spent seven years dreaming about.

Was it worth it?

Oh god, yes.

I go to bed happy. I wake up excited. Sometimes I catch myself smiling for no apparent reason.

Close friends ask me what I’m doing. There’s a faint sub-text of: “Well, tell me what life in seventh heaven is like. Tell me about the harps, the ambrosia, and bungee-jumping off the Burj Khalifa.”

“Well, GO ON THEN!”

It’s difficult to explain. Life post-FIRE is simultaneously very ordinary and extraordinary.

I haven’t boarded a log flume ride of perpetual hedonism. But I have found joy in the everyday.

The border fence between work and play has come down. Stuff I’d previously classify as a chore no longer seems like an obstacle between me and the good life.

That’s because I’m a sucker for flow. That serene mental state where you’re completely immersed in a task. You come to the surface after what feels like minutes, only to discover time has passed without friction, as if you were in hypersleep.

Now I slip into flow easily because I can do things at my own speed, in my own way, and to the standard I want.

It doesn’t matter what the task is. What matters is that I choose to do it. And that I’m not under some crushing deadline to get it done.

If I can strap the task to some notion that I’m making life slightly better for me, or someone I care about, then I’m happy.

Flights of fancy

In this way, I’ve inhabited a surprisingly small world so far. But my imagination has been free to wander via podcasts and books.

I can lodge my mind in space travel, politics, quantum physics, genetics, the evolutionary history of the octopus, or whatever else fires my curiosity neurons.

I’ve always had a broad range of interests, but there was never enough time in the day. Now there still isn’t enough time, but I don’t want the day to stop.

I’m both less focussed and less distracted. Less focussed because there isn’t a ton of BS (client, business, and asshat-related) to deal with every day. Less distracted because there isn’t a ton of BS to deal with every day.

Humans reputedly thrive when they have mastery, autonomy, and purpose.

I don’t know about the mastery part. But autonomy and purpose mean everything to me.

Other good things about FIRE

I sleep better.

That low-level, chronic stress that afflicts every contemporary workplace: it’s gone.

My physical health is better. There wasn’t much wrong with me that not sitting at a desk for 10 hours a day wouldn’t fix. Now I don’t do any single thing for 10 hours a day.

I’m not worrying about money. I’m not obsessively checking my portfolio or fretting about spending.

I feel carefree again. For the first time since leaving school.

I’m staying in touch with people. Jumping on my bike to see old friends, catching up for breakfast, or having a natter in the garden.

There’s no fixed routine. No longer do I just ‘work, eat, sleep’ repeat.

Mrs Accumulator is happier, she reports. (I didn’t make her fill in an extensive questionnaire, I swear!)

We get to spend proper time together every day, instead of only at weekends and holidays. The weekdays when our only exchange was a bleary, “My god, what time is it?” at stupid ‘o’ clock are but a memory.

So it’s all rainbows post-FIRE?

Like anyone, I’m subject to negative thoughts even when quite content. They turn up like trains at my mind’s central station.

These trains may be on their way to You Should Be Earning More City or You’ve Given Up Street. The doors open, I decide not to board, and the train of thought departs. It’s followed by another one – usually more positive – seconds later.

I think this is normal? It’s part of the human condition, at least as I experience it. As long as I don’t take these thoughts seriously then they disappear.

Maybe I’m fooling myself. I could still be on a Financial Independence high. The real test could be lying in wait. Perhaps in six months, as the seasons turn colder.

We’ll see. Right now I think FIRE is the right prescription for me.

Hopefully I don’t sound too giddy. I genuinely don’t feel that way. I’m just in a good place.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

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How to future proof your kids’ financial future

Your kids’ financial future is going to be a long game.

This article on your kids’ financial future comes courtesy of Long Weekend from Team Monevator. Check back every Monday for more fresh perspectives from the Team.

Generation Alpha parents – those with kids born between 2010 and 2025 – need to get creative. Based on the traditional adult measures of success, our kids are screwed. They face monster student debt, job insecurity, and house prices to the moon.

Excelling in the school system may or may not pay off. Taking a job is being replaced by the entrepreneurial making of a job. Kids will need to cultivate a toolkit of strategic thinking and collaboration skills in order to solve new world problems in novel ways.

I don’t know about you but I was not familiar with this language – let alone the principles – until I entered the workplace.

In this brave new world, sitting down to plan your children’s accompanying money blueprint will never be time wasted.

Here are three ideas ((I’m not an accountant or financial advisor. I’m a mum who’s educated herself on personal finance. Please do your own research and make your own investment decisions.)) for building your kids’ financial future.

1: Open a Junior ISA

The Junior ISA limit is now a generous £9,000 a year. That is a punchy number to fill every year, especially if there are siblings.

However let’s say you were able to put in the maximum from birth until your child(ren) hit 18 years. They would then leave school with a pot of £350,000, based on a 7% growth rate.

These kind of sums are only achievable by investing in the stock market via a stocks and shares JISA. In contrast, with a cash JISA your child will probably end up with less money than you invest in real terms, due to inflation.

Once you have overcome the first hurdle of saving £9,000 per child, you hit the second JISA challenge.

In the words of Gandalf the Grey “with great (investing) power, comes great responsibility”.

Your kids’ financial future in your hands

As the parent or guardian, you have a limited time window to positively influence your children’s financial literacy and hence your kids’ financial future.

They can access their JISA money in their late teens. Before then you’ll need to impart your hard-won wisdom on delayed gratification, saving for something special, giving to worthy causes, the power of compound interest, and budgeting.

They are not going to learn this stuff at school. It’s on you.

Regular automatic investing into a stocks & shares JISA sets your children up for success on their next adventure. That could be university, starting a business, or a deposit for a house. They will have money to put to work.

If you are new to investing, a JISA is a great training ground for buying and holding for the long-term. Once invested, only the junior recipient can access the funds on turning 18. This removes your ability to withdraw and hopefully the temptation to sell or tinker.

How to set up a Junior ISA

Estimated admin time: 1 hour

  1. Select a low-cost broker from Monevator’s broker table. I choose Charles Stanley Direct. Open the account online. This requires proof of ID and you’ll need to set yourself up as the nominated contributor to pay in funds.
  2. Choose a low-cost fund, with global exposure. Do you own research but for ease take a look at Vanguard Lifestrategy 80% (accumulation). Invest a lump sum, or select monthly payments.
  3. Save your the log-in details in LastPass. Then forget about the account, at least until the next tax year.

2: Open a Junior SIPP

My mum scoffed at me setting up a Junior pension for my daughter. The timeline of 60-plus years seemed meaningless. My mum argued that by the time my daughter could access the pension, she’d have her own money.

I see it differently. A Junior Self Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) is a wise investment.

Firstly, as with an adult pension, the government pays tax relief on a kid’s pension. This is the equivalent of 20% free money from the Government.

Parents or guardians can can pay in £2,880 and this is topped up to £3,600 per year. I will always take free money from the Government, thank you very much.

Secondly, the power of compounding works best on a long-time line. Sixty years is about as long as it gets!

Use the Monevator compound interest calculator to get a sense of what’s possible. An investment of £3,600 x 18 years, which is then left to compound ((This is based on the assumption that the annual investment of £2,880 remains the same for 18 years with an annualised return of 7% per year.)) (no further contributions) until they are 60-years-old would give your precious a pension pot of £2.2million, from an initial investment of £50,000.

That is not a typo.

Admittedly £2m will be worth a whole lot less in 60 years. But it’s still a very generous patronage.

I plan to only tell my daughter about her family-funded pension when she’s established herself both personally and professionally. Imagine being told, aged 35-40 year, that there is money put aside that will allow you to pursue your passions, pay off your mortgage, and invest in your children’s and grandchildren’s future!

I’ll need to wait a long time to be proved right. That said, I’m feeling pretty bullish.

How to set up a Junior Pension

Estimated admin time: 1 hour

  1. As per the ISA, select a low-cost broker. For the purposes of diversification and protection from Internet hacking, choose a different provider. For example Best Invest. Its pension performs well in terms of low fees
  2. Again, choose a low-cost fund, with global exposure. Given the long investment timeline, you might help your kids’ future by choosing an ESG fund, too. Vanguard’s own ESG fund saw returns of 34% over the last 12 months. This growth isn’t sustainable (excuse the pun) but it proves that ESG investments needn’t inevitably compromise returns.
  3. It will take roughly a month from investing to receive the extra Government 20% (max £720) into the account. Set a reminder to invest that, and then forget it until next year

3: School of Life investing

We’re witnessing explosive growth in DeFi (decentralised finance). If my child were in their late teens and obsessed with Roblox, Fortnite, and Axie, I would be tempted to set them up with a little money in an account, subscriptions to newsletters such as Real Vision and The Defiant, and suggest they put their metaverse skills to work.

With supervision, it’d be a fun, gamified, way to learn about returns, lending, and yields. It also flexes their research skills. It will help them find authentic and knowledgeable voices for advice. Most significantly, Defi is your kids’ financial future. It will impact their work, money and investing, communications, and ownership. Starting this learning journey early is only going to help.

In her coming secondary school years years, I also intend to gift my daughter roughly £1,000 to set up a business during the summer holidays.

Again, the learning curve is huge, from selecting a product or service, learning how to sell, problem solving, managing a budget, branding and IP.

I’ll be rooting for what she creates and hope her business succeeds.

But in this instance the journey will be more important than the destination.

In time you will be able to see all Long Weekend’s articles in her dedicated archive.

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Weekend reading: More FIRE fighting

Weekend reading logo

Important: This is probably the last email we’ll send out under the existing subscription system. If you stop getting Monevator in your emails next week, please check your spam folder for a confirmation email to sign you up with the new service. Or resubscribe!

Like Lennon and McCartney, sweet and sour pork, and Matt Hancock and his job, there are multiple tensions at the heart of Monevator.

The biggie probably isn’t active versus passive these days.

Following the lead of Macca in his prime, The Accumulator has produced hit after hit on why and how to use index funds.

Whereas I’ve – metaphorically – taken my naughty stock picking and left the band. At least for now.

Imagine!

No, I’d say our biggest on-site difference of opinion is the RE part of FIRE.

We’ve debated that in the past, too.

In short I nowadays believe that early retirement is a rubbish goal, ill-suited to most who can reach it.

The Accumulator, on the other hand, is living it.

And loving it, apparently.

FIRE in the hold

Of course, both of us are full-square behind achieving financial independence – the FI component of FIRE.

That goes without saying!

Being so ill-versed in the FIRE community and lingo I only just discovered that the kids call my version of reaching it ‘Slow FIRE’.

Monevator reader Ian pointed me towards an article from Business Insider, which explains:

Slow FIRE practitioners focus on designing and achieving their FIRE lifestyle now.

This may include working remotely in order to create more flexibility in their lives.

It’s also a nod to the fact they will work longer in order to hit their FIRE number.

There’s no work-shaming because work factors heavily into Slow FIRE.

Yes! This is what I was trying to get at in You Don’t Have To Go Nuclear On Working For a Living. (In retrospect not such a catchy name for a movement, compared to Slow FIRE.)

Back then I wrote:

I often read retirement bloggers saying they quit work because they couldn’t take kowtowing to The Man anymore.

Yes – The Man sucks – but it’s not a good reason to quit working.

Especially if you’re impoverishing yourself for the rest of your life to do so.

I believed that mostly working from home, mostly on projects I enjoyed, and on my own schedule was a more sustainable way to spend my life than:

  • killing myself in the rat race, or
  • jumping off a cliff like an exhausted lemming as soon as I believed I could meet my minimum spending requirements from some vast pool of cash I’d accumulated, just out of sight of my bedsit or RV.

I’ve got nothing against people retiring in their 40s after 20 years of frugality if they choose.

I don’t think it’s morally wrong, or anything silly like that.

You do you.

I’m just saying be sure you’ve thought about all the options first.

Not so shy and retiring

Someday I’ll make my case for this Slow FIRE business more coherently.

In the meantime, Party at the Moontower this week explained why he too is against the ‘retire early’ part of the mantra.

Despite his apparently just now retiring early!

Like me he’s sceptical that sustainable withdrawal rates (SWRs) are a golden bullet to ‘the hardest problem in finance’:

Solving for how much you need to save and for how long, solving for how much you can withdraw annually and for how long, all so you don’t outlive your money.

If you have walked through the Moontower Retirement Model you learned the levers — savings rates, longevity, and post-tax inflation-adjusted returns.

Every one of those terms is impossible to forecast. The problem suffers from intractable amounts of garbage inputs.

The value of the exercise is not the outputs, it’s for articulating the problem in the first place and gaining a low-res appreciation for the sensitivities.

Thinking about your likely SWR is indeed super-valuable. It makes you consider all the variables.

Also, if you’ve never encountered the idea of living off your investments before, then applying 4% to a pot of ‘some number’ can be mindblowing.

Fighting FIRE with fire

However beyond their thoughtprovoking, SWRs only do a perfect job of telling you how you would have done in the past.

Worse, they crumple the edges.

Their fans declare “of course you wouldn’t actually spend your money if you saw it was running out”

Um, okay.

I’m practically a dinosaur in that I believe investing for income is a more intellectually credible way to prep your finances for a long period of living off them. I also hate the idea of spending my capital.

This means more money is needed, and perhaps some active management. Again, more on that some other day.

But none of this is to discredit The Accumulator’s wonderful work on SWRs.

I think his is probably the most readable deep take on the Internet.

The Accumulator has read widely – proper academic research papers and all . In contrast, as ever I’m a bundle of notions and hunches.

So you should certainly read through everything he says on the subject – it’s a goldmine – even if you reach a different conclusion.

Fee FI fo fum

The other solution to getting an income in your later years is to keep doing some work for money.

RE goes out the window, but FI remains front and centre in giving you options and buffers.

To again quote Moontower:

The idea that you can work until you are 75 or 80 is freeing IF you can do it on your terms. If you can take a break for a year sometimes. If you can work 4 days a week, or from wherever you want. If you actually enjoy bringing your uniqueness to the job to be done.

The definition of a sustainable life is one you actually want to sustain.

Nobody wants to sprint forever, and sprinting for a short while doesn’t make the scarcity mindset go away even if you “win”.

This is partly why rich people fear inflation. They thought they were “done”. What is “done” anyway?

Past experience tells me that plenty of you will disagree (which is fine!)

Smart and articulate people tell me they couldn’t do work they half-like on their own terms, although I’ve done just that for 20 years. Their only option is to cane it at a job they hate for the best years of their life, and to smell the roses at the weekends. And then to hope their SWR doesn’t blow up.

Again, okay…

Just be aware what you’re saying: can’t, won’t, will.

You’re just saying it in a different order to me.

Maybe it’s all a question of where we choose to put our limits and our faith and to see the uncertainties.

Happiness is a warm run in the stock market

I’m no zealot. The truth is after quitting my ‘big gig’ last year I’ve not put a lot of effort into ramping up my hours and income to replace it.

So maybe I’m leaning a bit more towards RE than I care to admit?

To his credit The Accumulator has also shifted over the years. He is at least trying out doing some work post-retirement.

Again, financial independence lets us both look for our middle ground.

I suppose I’m saying that 40-50 years is a long time to plan to drop out. I doubt even Lennon would have managed that, though sadly he never got the chance.

Too much leisure time is probably counterproductive, anyway. Studies suggest there’s a sweet spot:

Employed people’s ratings of their satisfaction with life peaked when they had in the neighborhood of two and a half hours of free time a day.

For people who didn’t work, the optimal amount was four hours and 45 minutes.

Working for just a couple of hours a day – or a couple of full days a week – leaves you abundant time to learn Swahili or to see your grandkids.

And a small amount of income is worth a lot. Many years ago I pointed out that £5 a day was worth around £90,000. Today it’d be even more.

Earning to keep FIRE burning

Consider planning to earn a couple of hundred quid a week indefinitely. I suspect you’ll be happier.

It doesn’t have to be working from home or side hustling, either.

A sociable friend of mine wants to retire in her 50s to do a couple of days a week in an independent coffee shop. Some of her fondest memories are of part-time work at Starbucks as a student.

There was seeing the regulars, the free coffees, the short walk to the ‘office’, the lack of responsibility, and being usefully whacked at the end of the day.

It’s not my bag. But then, writing this post on a sunny Saturday morning in bed wouldn’t be hers.

Let’s all find our own way.

Have a great weekend (and Cymru am byth!)

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