The joy of a stocks and shares ISA is that it legally protects your investments from tax on growth and income. That’s more important than ever as tax-free allowances are being slashed or suppressed across the board.

If you hope to build wealth through investing then shielding your gains from unnecessary tax must be a core part of your strategy.

ISAs are tax-efficient ‘wrappers’ created by the UK government to encourage saving. Any investment inside the ISA wrapper can grow tax-free as long as you don’t break the rules.

Stocks and shares ISAs are provided by high street banks, fund managers such as Vanguard, financial advisors, and specialist online brokers or platforms.

You get a new ISA allowance every tax year. You can put the entire amount into a stocks and shares ISA if you wish.

£20,000 is the maximum amount of new money you can pay into a stocks and shares ISA during the tax year 2022-23. (£9,000 in a JISA1). The same limit will apply from the new tax year: 2023-2024. The tax year runs from 6 April to 5 April.

The ISA deadline is 5 April every year. That’s the last day of the current tax year you can use up your allowance. You get a new allowance from 6 April. But you can’t roll over unused ISA capacity from the previous year.

If you’ve left things late then know it’s enough to have the cash taken off your debit card and inside your ISA by close of business on 5 April. You don’t need to have actually invested the cash for it to qualify for tax-free protection.

Why open a stocks and shares ISA?

A stocks and shares ISA combines three critical features:

• The ability to invest in assets that are expected to grow faster than cash.

• Legally recognised tax protection. You don’t have to worry about HMRC handing you a large bill because you invested in some sketchy offshore caper.

• Instant accessibility. You can invest in liquid holdings that can be sold to meet unforeseen difficulties or other life events that occur before you reach pension age.

In short, ISAs are a private investor’s top tax-protection shield, along with pensions.

• Find out more about the benefits of ISAs vs SIPPs.

Which taxes are not paid in a stocks and shares ISA?

The main taxes that you do not have to pay on investments in a stocks and shares ISA are:

• Income tax on interest – as earned on bonds and bond funds.
• Dividend income tax – as paid by shares, equity funds, and property funds.
• Capital gains tax on profits – as paid on the growth in value of taxable assets when you sell them.
• Inheritance tax – although it’s complicated, and depends on the ISA passing to a spouse or civil partner who’s not been estranged from the deceased.
• Interest and dividends paid straight out of your ISA are not taxed.
• ISA withdrawals aren’t taxed, unlike with a pension. (You will pay a penalty if you withdraw from a Lifetime ISA at the wrong time).

Even more reasons to use an ISA

Investing in a stocks and shares ISA is a no-brainer, even if you think your holdings are too small to be caught up in the taxman’s net.

• Many providers charge you no more for holding an ISA than they do for keeping your assets in a taxable account.
• Though most of us start out small, your investments can grow surprisingly rapidly. Over the years you will outstrip your ability to manage everything within your tax allowances.
• Taxes can go up. On top of explicit increases in dividends and capital gains, other UK tax thresholds are being frozen until April 2028. This is a stealth tax, so use your tax shelters while you can.
• You don’t even have to tell HMRC about your ISA transactions. (Believe me, if you ever have to fill in a tedious capital gains tax form, you’ll fall to your knees with thanks that all your investments are in an ISA.)

ISAs can be mission critical

If you’re on a mission to achieve financial independence (FI) before your minimum pension age2 then stocks and shares ISAs will accelerate you towards your goal.

The best course for most will be to combine ISAs and SIPPs to achieve the FI dream. ISA investments can bridge the gap between your FIRE3 date and your minimum pension age.

The minimum pension age for accessing your personal pension is currently 55. But the government has confirmed it will rise to age 57 at some point in 2028. Thereafter the minimum pension age is due to be set to ten years before your State Pension age.

A stocks and shares ISA is also a great place to stash your pension’s 25% tax-free lump sum so that you can expand the amount of income you can take without being pushed into a higher tax bracket.

Investment ISA types

You can hold investments in the following types of ISA:

• Stocks and shares ISA
• Lifetime ISA (choose a stocks and shares version not cash)
• Junior ISA (again, shares not cash)

ISA providers call stocks and shares ISAs by various names including:

• Shares ISA
• Self-Select ISA
• Ready Made ISA
• Share Dealing ISA
• Investment ISA
• Workplace ISA
• AIM ISA

They’re all stocks and shares ISAs. But they are given different marketing labels depending on how the provider is trying to appeal to consumers.

A stocks and shares ISA may also be a flexible ISA. This means you can potentially replenish withdrawals you make without running down your ISA allowance.

You can invest in a stocks and shares ISA from age 18 onwards by opening an account with your chosen platform (bank, fund manager, IFA or similar).

We’ve put together a list of providers in our cheapest online broker table. These providers enable you to invest in a DIY stocks and shares ISA. You can see who offers a flexible stocks and shares ISA in the left-hand column.

Stocks and shares ISA rules

You can:

• Have as many stocks and shares ISAs as you like, so long as you don’t put new money into more than one per tax year.

• Split money across a stocks and shares ISA, lifetime ISA, cash ISA, and innovative finance ISA, provided you don’t put in more than £20,000 between them,4 nor open more than one of each type, in the same tax year.

• Transfer money from previous years’ ISAs (of any type) into multiple stocks and shares ISAs with any provider. And vice versa.

Transferring old ISA money or assets does not:

• Use up your ISA allowance for the current tax year
• Break the one-type-of-ISA-a-tax-year rule

You can transfer any amount of your previous years’ ISA’s value. Either transfer the whole lot into one ISA, transfer a portion of it into several ISAs, or do any other combo you desire.

How to transfer an ISA

You must transfer the whole balance if you’re transferring your current tax year’s stocks and shares ISA

You can transfer it into a different type of ISA – provided you haven’t already opened one of that type this tax year.

In that scenario, you can also open a new stocks and shares ISA later that tax year.

This is an exception to the one-type-of-ISA-a-tax-year rule.

It works because transferring from one type of ISA to another means that you now count as subscribing to the receiving ISA type.

For example, you transfer from a stocks and shares ISA to a cash ISA. You can now open a new stocks and shares ISA without falling foul of the ‘one type of ISA per tax year’ rule.

Always transfer an ISA to retain the tax-free status of its assets. Don’t withdraw cash and plop it in a new ISA – that uses up your ISA allowance!

Transfer assets in specie (this avoids them being sold to cash) if you are given the option. In specie moves are also known as re-registration.

• See our comprehensive guide on the ISA allowance rules.
• How to transfer a stocks and shares ISA.

Other ISA funding rules

You can’t invest new money in a workplace ISA and a stocks and shares ISA.

If you invest £9,000 per tax year in a JISA for each of your children that does not reduce your own ISA allowance.

Most stocks and shares ISAs have minimum required contributions. They are often as low as £50.

Replacing cash withdrawn from a flexible stocks and shares ISA does not use up your ISA allowance. However you can’t replace the value of shares, or other investment types, that you moved out of the account.

It’s worth checking your ISA’s T&Cs whenever you choose a product. Not all of the government’s ISA rules are mandatory. ISA managers do not have to support all features.

Best ISA funds

The main investment vehicles you can include in a stocks and shares ISA are:

• Mutual funds such as OEICs and Unit Trusts including money market funds
• Exchange Trade Products such as ETFs and ETCs
• Investment trusts
• Individual company shares
• Individual government and corporate bonds

The government maintains a comprehensive list of the complete menagerie.

If you are new to investing then our passive investing HQ can explain more.

Remember that the assets listed above are riskier than cash – you can get back less than you put in.

It’s worth regularly reflecting on how much risk you might be able to handle as you build your investing portfolio.

Index trackers are an investment vehicle that combine simplicity and affordability. They are recommended by some of the best investors in the world – and us.

• See our list of particularly useful low-cost index funds and ETFs. 

The Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) provides some investor compensation should your ISA or investment manager go belly up. Do take a look at the link. The scheme is convoluted, to say the least.

Stocks and shares ISA costs

You can expect to pay stocks and shares ISA investment fees that cover:

• Your ISA provider’s management costs
• The cost of owning investment funds
• Dealing fees for trading investments in the open market
• Fees for special events such as transferring your ISA

All fees should be transparently laid out by your ISA provider and investment fund managers.

Charges that can be paid from monies held outside of your ISA, if your provider agrees, include:

• ISA provider’s management costs
• Fees for special / one-off events, such as closing your account

Charges that must be paid from funds held within the ISA include:

• Dealing fees
• The cost of owning investment funds

A flexible ISA doesn’t enable you to replace the cost of ISA charges against your allowance.

Beware of transfer fees that can rack up when your provider charges you ‘per line of stock’. For example they might charge you £15 per company stock and investment fund that you own.

Tax efficiency

You can’t transfer most unsheltered assets straight out of a taxable account and into your stocks and shares ISA wrapper.

You generally have to sell the assets first and buy them again inside your ISA. This is colloquially, if not popularly, known as Bed and ISA.

Selling an unsheltered investment can cost you capital gains tax on your profits. But you can duck that by staying within your capital gains tax allowance and defusing your capital gains.

You can transfer employee share save scheme shares directly into an ISA in some circumstances.

If you want to invest more than you can squeeze into your annual ISA allowance, then research tax efficient investing to avoid building up a capital gains tax time bomb.

Inheriting a stocks and shares ISA

Your surviving spouse or civil partner can receive your ISA assets tax-free upon your death. Although do check that the T&Cs of your particular stocks and shares ISA allow for it to remain tax-free and invested after your passing.

++Monevator Minefield Warning ++ The rules below apply equally to spouses and civil partners but we’ll just refer to spouses for brevity’s sake. Unmarried couples do not benefit from these special inheritance rules. See our article on how unmarried couples can protect their finances.

A surviving spouse is given a one-off ISA allowance that equals the value of your ISAs. 

This is called the Additional Permitted Subscription (APS).

A spouse uses the APS to add the value of their deceased partners’ ISAs into ISA accounts held under their own name. 

For example, if you die with ISA assets worth £50,000, then your spouse is entitled to an APS of £50,000.

Plus they get their usual annual ISA allowance on top.

The APS effectively means your spouse benefits from the tax-free status of your ISA assets after your death.

The APS is worth the higher of:

• Your ISA’s value at the date of your death
• Or the value of your assets when the account is closed. (This assumes no part of the APS has been used up to that point)

Surprisingly, your spouse still benefits from the APS even if your ISAs are willed to someone else. 

In this scenario, your partner can fund their APS from their own money or other inherited assets.

That said, under most circumstances, a surviving spouse will fill their APS simply by transferring their deceased partner’s ISA assets. 

The APS must be used no later than:

• Within three years of the date of your death 

OR

• Within 180 days of the completion of the administration of your estate, if that’s later

The surviving spouse does not have to wait until the estate is settled to use the APS though. 

Managing an inherited ISA

Assets within the deceased’s ISA can be managed by their personal representatives before it is closed. However they can’t make new contributions into the account. 

The ISA continues to grow tax-free until the earlier of:

• Completion of the administration of the estate.
• Closure by your executor
• Three years and one day after your death. The account is automatically closed at this point

If you have multiple ISAs with different providers then your spouse’s APS is divided between them according to the value of the ISAs lodged with each firm. 

Your spouse must claim each portion of their APS from each ISA provider involved.

Again, check that the various providers of your ISAs subscribe to these rules as described. Terms can vary.  

More ISA inheritance rules

(Because there isn’t enough to think about already…)

The other main wrinkle is that your spouse can only receive assets in specie from a stocks and shares ISA by transferring them to the same provider that you held them with.

They can then transfer the assets to another manager once held in their own name.

Another clause is that assets transferred in specie must be the ones held on the date you were told of the death of the investor. (Some might see this rule as pretty heartless. However I don’t know about you but the very first thing I want to know after hearing the news of my partner’s death is the list of non-cash assets they’ve got tucked in their ISAs. Let’s cut to the chase!5)

In specie transfer must be made within 180 days of the assets passing into the beneficial ownership of the surviving spouse.

Your ISAs do not pass on their tax-free status to anyone other than your spouse. 

The tax benefits do not apply if you and your surviving partner were not living together on the date of death, or were legally separated, or in the process of becoming legally separated. 

AIM-ing for even more

Some wealth managers and platforms market AIM ISAs that twin the advantages of a stocks and shares ISA’s tax efficiency with the inheritance tax-elusiveness of Alternative Investment Market (AIM) shares.

Some but not all AIM shares qualify for inheritance tax relief under peculiar government rules that are subject to change.

An AIM ISA is:

• Risky
• Not guaranteed to work out
• Subject to high minimum investments, which add a naughty elite frisson to the escapade

Check out the links above if you need ‘em.

Stocks and shares ISAs aren’t just for the rich

Some people think ISAs are a rich person’s concern. That’s because few have experience of paying capital gains tax, or even income tax on share dividends.

However even modest savings can really add up to a big portfolio in a bull market, at which point the tax protection is invaluable.

Shielding your investment returns from tax like this can make a huge difference to your end result from investing.

Finally, if you want to optimise your ISA to the max then take a look at our cheapest stocks and shares ISA hack. 

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

1. Junior ISA for kids. [↩]
2. The moment you can first crack open your personal pension. [↩]
3. Financial Independence Retire Early. [↩]
4. Or more than £4,000 in the case of the lifetime ISA. [↩]
5. Sarcasm. [↩]

What caught my eye this week.

Now and then an investing writer will take aim at a staple of the genre – all those articles proclaiming the ‘miracle’ of compound interest, which detail how Precocious Pete who starts saving at 20 will trounce Tardy Tarquin who doesn’t get going until 40.

Nonsense, the doubters say. Pete hasn’t got a bean to spare, and Tarquin is rolling in it. Compound interest won’t do much for either of them (apparently). Instead it’s all about savings.

It’s basically shock jock blogging. Slaying the sacred cow to the awed gasps of onlookers.

And too bad if those onlookers get splattered in blood.

Okay, so there’s some truth in what these iconoclastic articles – which at best champion saving over investing, and at worst throw in the towel – say.

If you have £1,000 and you compound it by 10%, you still only have £1,100. Nobody is retiring on that.

In contrast nearly all 20-year olds reading Monevator can find £100 down the back of the sofa.

Ergo, like a complication-free hookup, compound interest is a myth that will do little for you until you’re too old to be bothered with it.

So forget about it! Save more when you (hopefully) earn a lot more in your 50s. Go to the beach instead.

I paraphrase but that’s the gist.

Them versus us

I’ve noticed these articles tend to be written by three kinds of people:

• Young people with little yet in the way of assets who wonder where’s their snowball?
• Older people who stumble into income or assets in later life, which transforms their finances.
• (Usually much) older people who never saved enough to retire early, and seem cross about it.

Notably not on the list are people who did start saving in their 20s. Who saw their snowball. And who now tell you compound interest can do a lot of heavy lifting.

People like me!

I was a regular saver from my teens. I’ve never earned six-figures, and most years didn’t trouble the higher-tax bracket (albeit later thanks to pension contributions). I mostly lived in London, which is expensive.

On the other hand I didn’t have kids, a car, or a drug habit.

And by the time I hit my 40s, my portfolio’s average annual return – the compound interest bit – was more or less equal to my earnings, net of tax.

Undoubtedly I made sacrifices to get there. Maybe I was too frugal. There are reasons why what seemed to me a generously-provisioned life would cause others to chafe. I’m a good enough (active) investor, which also helped.

But none of that disproves the impact of compound interest.

Roll the calendar another ten years and even despite a horrible 2022 – for my portfolio, my earnings, and my mortgage rate – I’m still (touch wood) set fair.

Savings played a big part in this journey. But I’ve never earned enough to be set without compound interest helping out too.

For sure I’m glad the books I stumbled upon in my 20s hit me over the head with a graph that went up and to the right, thanks to compound interest.

Rather than one that told me not to bother – not until I’d climbed over enough rats to get high enough up the greasy pole to stick at it and save in my 50s, 60s, and who knows maybe into my 70s.

Saving versus interest versus time

In my view savings and investing – and fitting your budget to suit your goals – are all important.

Doh, you say. (Unless you’re drafting your anti-compound interest post as we speak?)

Elsewhere ever-reliable Nick Maggiulli tackled this savings/investing duality in a novel way this week, with what he calls the ‘Wealth Savings Rate’.

It’s a way of seeing how your pot will grow (double) through adding new money via savings, as well as through compound interest.

Early on your Wealth Savings Rate is high. New money moves the dial materially.

But later, a whole year of extra savings might amount to one or two percent of your portfolio’s value. It’s the compounding that’s motoring you forward. By then you can run the numbers on leaving work if you want to.

Nick shows how long it will take to double your money under different saving and return scenarios:

It’s a cool lens he’s come up with, and one I can’t remember looking through this clearly before. Check out the full post on Nick’s blog, Of Dollars and Data.

And do keep saving and investing if you want to be financially independent sooner rather than later!

Have a great weekend.

[continue reading…]

Serious capital losses can reduce our appetite for risk, just as surely as a night clutching the toilet bowl will put you off eating raw oysters for life.

But our psychological hard wiring presents us with a dilemma.

Foul, nausea-inducing returns now and then come with the territory in financial markets.

And we know these gut-wrenching episodes are liable to impact our future decision-making, because they trigger our impulse to avoid similar unpleasantness in the future.

In other words we’re prone to negativity bias. 

But common wisdom among many investing masochists veterans is that outsized profits are made after a market meltdown.

“Buy when there’s blood on the streets!” and all that charming imagery.

And if that’s true then our natural response to shy away from whatever just hurt us could do us more harm than good.  

UK equities: ten worst annual returns 1871-2022

So which view is correct?

Do awful returns fire the starting gun for massive bargains? Do you just need the testicular fortitude to scoop them up?

Or do market swan dives just as often signal that there’s more pain ahead, as feared by our savannah-ready emotional engineering?

The table below – which features real1 returns – shows how UK equities bounce back – or belly-flop – after their ten most negative single years since 1871.

Bad year	Return (%)	+1 year (%)	+3 years (%)	+5 years (%)	+10 years (%)	10yr annualised (%)
1916	-17.4	-12.5	-13.8	-36.2	50.1	4.1
1920	-31.8	8.6	71.1	137.7	181.2	10.9
1931	-16.5	37.8	99.7	167.6	78.5	6
1937	-15.9	-11.2	-28.4	-12.3	11.1	1.1
1940	-18.6	10.8	31.5	49.2	35.9	3.1
1969	-16.2	-9.4	31.8	-62.7	-12.1	-1.3
1973	-34.2	-57	-22.5	1.2	75.9	5.8
1974	-57	103.4	132.6	135.4	415.7	17.8
2002	-23.2	18.6	57	83.5	74.9	5.8
2008	-32.2	26.2	29	65.3	87.2	6.5

Real2 total returns from JST Macrohistory3. February 2023. 

One thing jumps out from this table – the severity of the first year’s losses tells us little about what’s coming next.

The very worst year (1974) led directly to the best year in UK stock market history – the 103% doozy of 1975.

Yet the second-worst year (1973) bled straight into the 1974 nightmare. (Indeed the two years fused into the UK’s worst stock market crash since the South Sea Bubble.)

Meanwhile, the third, fourth, and fifth bleakest years in our chart (2008, 1920, and 2002) were all followed by large rallies.

On the other hand, three of the five least worst-drops kept tunnelling down in year two.

More often than not, equities bounce back fast

On balance the table provides tentative evidence supporting the theory that a severe shock for shares can abate quite quickly.

This is conjecture, but perhaps in the best cases the bolder investors quickly see the panic has been overdone and pile in. Their forays restore confidence among the rest of the herd, leading to further gains.

Milder hits may not flush quite enough negativity out of the system within just a year, however. Hence there’s a fairly strong chance that escalating disquiet blows up into a deeper decline in year two.

Or maybe it’s all to do with the credit cycle or a dozen other theories…

The recovery position

Whatever the driver, a recovery is usually under way three years after the initial slump.

Seven out of ten aftermaths feature high single- to double-digit average growth. By the third-year mark, the ranges4 rove from 9% annualised (after the Financial Crisis) to 32% annualised (post-1974).

Those return rates are chunky compared to the historical average return of around 5% for equities.

Less happily: we can see three events were in contrast still poisoning the water supply five years out. And one was still pishing in the pond after a decade.

Two of these periods were hamstrung by the World Wars. The other (1969) slid into the 1972-74 crash and the worst outbreak of inflation in UK history.

Yet even these observations don’t enable us to formulate a simple heuristic such as: ‘bail out for the duration of a major war or stagflationary malaise’.

For one, the ten-year returns beyond 1916 are perfectly acceptable, if nothing to brag about.

Next, let’s examine the difference in an investor’s fate after 1973 compared to 1974.

What a difference a year makes

The post-1973 path took a decade to straighten itself out. In contrast, you were skipping along like it’s the Yellow Brick Road straight after 1974.

But realistically, how many investors who’d just been through the 1973 shoeing would be itching to double-down after the -72% roasting inflicted by the end of 1974?

You’d have to be a robot – or rich enough not to really care about losing money – to wade in after that two-year bloodbath.

Still, if you held your nerve you were handsomely rewarded. Returns were close to an extraordinary 18% annualised for the next decade.

The really unlucky cohort were the 1969-ers. These guys suffered a relatively mild recession at the tail-end of the ’60s, but they then ran smack into the 1972-74 W.O.A.T.5, and ended up with negative returns after ten years.

Ultimately, these investors recovered to 5% annualised respectability.

But it took 16 years of keeping the faith to get there.

World equities: ten worst annual returns 1970-2021

How does the picture change if we look beyond UK equities? We have good data on the MSCI World index going back to 1970.

Let’s see how quickly (or not) global equities bounce back from the abyss:

Year	Return (%)	+1 year (%)	+3 years (%)	+5 years (%)	+10 years (%)	10yr annualised (%)
1970	-10.2	2.1	-2.2	-25.3	-37.9	-4.6
1973	-22.6	-38.1	-10.5	-27.8	7.2	0.7
1974	-38.1	23.4	16.1	0.8	116.8	8
1977	-19.7	0.6	-11.5	15.8	136.2	9
1979	-13.7	1.9	33.4	115.1	311.1	15.2
1987	-11.8	22	-2.6	26.5	112.5	7.8
1990	-35.5	14	59.1	83	213	12.1
2001	-15.6	-28.7	-11.3	8.8	4	0.4
2002	-28.7	18.1	49.4	60.4	57.4	4.6
2008	-20.3	12.4	14.1	50	126.8	8.5

Real total returns (GBP) from MSCI. February 2023. 

Quick aside: last year’s -16.6% loss slots in at no.7 on the World Annus Horribilis chart. But I’ve excluded that result because, well, we don’t know how it turns out yet.

The pattern of the worst routs leading to the best rebounds mostly holds true on the world stage, too. 1973 proves to be the exception once more.

We can also see the past 50 years has been much kinder to stocks than the first half of the 20th Century. There were no World Wars, Great Depressions, or what have you.

Nevertheless it still takes five years before a majority of the sample periods turn positive.

At the three-year mark, half the pathways are underwater.

But five years on, and only two scenarios are negative. Of the goodies, two are positive but miserable, two have average returns, and four above-average to superb.

Finally, at the ten-year mark, three of the timelines were all told a thankless slog. (Think working in the laundromat in Everything Everwhere All At Once.)

The others are all excellent though. Well, except for post-2002. It hovers right around average.

UK gilts: 10 worst annual returns 1871-2021

Now let’s consider UK government bonds.

Year	Return (%)	+1 year (%)	+3 years (%)	+5 years (%)	+10 years (%)	10yr annualised (%)
1916	-32.5	-17.7	-36.7	-35.2	8.6	0.8
1917	-17.7	-7.5	-38.3	6.1	44.8	3.8
1919	-16.8	-19.7	38	65.4	98.7	7.1
1920	-19.7	27.4	90.5	106	188.1	11.2
1947	-19.9	-6.5	-17.1	-38.3	-50	-6.7
1951	-17.2	-10.2	2.3	-19.3	-31.7	-3.7
1955	-14.5	-7.7	-5.3	-12.4	-10.1	-1.1
1973	-16.6	-27.2	-20.5	-8.7	26.8	2.4
1974	-27.2	10.9	38.3	17.3	73.3	5.7
1994	-12.2	14.5	38.2	56	99.3	7.1

Real total returns from JST Macrohistory. February 2023. 

Quick aside part two. Last year’s -30.2% ranks at number two in the UK gilt all-time losses chart. But again 2022 is excluded due to crystal ball malfunction.

First thing to notice is that the UK’s worst one-year bond losses aren’t much more gentle than our grimmest stock market losses. (And they’d be nastier still if we threw 2022 into the mix.)

Partially that’s because the UK’s historical gilt benchmark was stuffed full of highly-volatile long bonds. Bond drops are gentler if you stick to shorter durations.

But much of the story hinges on inflation. In fact the only three positive years in the ‘+1 year’ column occurred because heightened inflation fears subsided, rather than escalated.

Roll the time-tape on three years, and the only middle-ground is the post-1951 nothing burger.

Every other path is either a double-digit return spectacular, or else it’s negative growth purgatory.

But it’s the five-year column that really shows how a bond bounce-back can be arduous.

Fully 50% of this sample still remains in the red at that point. Whereas we’d seen 70% of UK equities bounce back by the five-year post-crash mark.

What was that about slow and steady?

Remember, over the long-term we’re not expecting much more than 1% annualised real returns from government bonds.

Yet by the time a decade has elapsed, only one outcome from our sample of worst starting points has delivered anything like that.

Four of the following decennial returns are equity-hot. (That’s good!) Two are great, at least for bonds. But three would leave you ruing the day.

That latter trio of roads to nowhere (1947, 1951, 1955) were all caught in the middle of the UK’s biggest bond crash. Inflation kept slipping its leash and mauling the real returns from fixed income.

Hope for the best, but be ready for the worst

While none of this data is predictive of future outcomes, I think we can draw a few general lessons.

Firstly, the worst equity crashes are not predictive of more slaughter to come. The majority are a reset that auger better days ahead. Equities bounce back and usually sooner rather than later.

If you’ve just taken a heavy hit in the stock market then your best (but far from guaranteed) route back to profit is to hang in there. The market should fairly quickly pick up speed again.

Eventually any market will almost certainly right itself. That’s why equities and bonds have positive return records going back 150 years and more.

But the rebound may not happen according to a timetable that suits you. The longest string of successive negative returns for UK equities was 12 years straight.

Incidentally there’s also an outlier pathway in the historical record that does nicely for 18 years, and then collides with World War One. That calamity saddled 1897 equity investors with a negative return after 25 years!

An extreme event for sure. But it helps illustrate why 100% equities is a risk. The expected returns you’d planned for may not be there when you want them.

Do you have bouncebackability?

Most of us are likely to go through the investing meat grinder at some stage in our lifetimes. That’s the price of entry as an investor.

Just think of all the big crashes recently. How many investing experts managed to swerve the Global Financial Crisis? The Covid crash? Or the inflationary shock of 2022?

Predictive power is in short supply. Rather it’s staying power that we need.

We say keep your head together after a bad run and don’t chase the market. Give it time and it should turn in your favour. Sooner or later your patience will very likely be rewarded.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

P.S. This concept was inspired / shamelessly cribbed from US asset manager and author Ben Carlson. See his post on US stock and bond rebounds. But I’d just like to say in my defence that I’m a big fan of Ben’s work. And I’d do it again, so help me!

1. That is, inflation-adjusted. [↩]
2. Real returns subtract inflation from your investment results. In other words, they’re a more accurate portrayal of your capital growth in relation to purchasing power than standard nominal returns. [↩]
3. Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2019. “The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3), 1225-1298. [↩]
4. Three-year annualised return, not shown in the table. [↩]
5. Worst of All-Time! [↩]