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Not all trackers are as straightforward as good old index funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). A profusion of less familiar, riskier tracker types skulk in the shadows, beyond the ken of most mainstream investors.

Yet the release of the RBS UK small cap tracker showed that even humble private passive investors may encounter one of these beasts.

So what do we need to know?

Introducing ETNs

Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) and Certificates are like the grizzly bear and the brown bear of the investing world – one’s of American descent and one’s European, but fundamentally they have pretty much the same snarl. So for simplicity’s sake, I’ll just refer to ETNs for the rest of this article.

ETNs are related to ETFs in that they track an underlying index and are traded on the stock exchange. But there are key differences that make ETNs much riskier than vanilla ETFs:

Like an ETF Not like an ETF
Tracks an index They’re debt securities
Trades on the exchange Can track a single asset e.g. crude oil, volatility
Has ET in the title Exposed to more counter-party risk – up to 100%

How ETNs work

How ETNs work

An ETN follows its underlying index like a train on a track. But where you need to look lively is that ETNs are often used to track exotica like future contracts, volatility indices, currencies or even just half a dozen stocks you might fancy a punt on.

Unlike ETFs, ETNs are not bound by European UCITS regulations that require an investment vehicle to follow a diversified benchmark. So you can indulge your tastes for the weird and wonderful with all the added spice and risk that entails.

An ETN doesn’t actually own the assets that physically comprise its index. Instead, like a synthetic ETF, it uses investors’ cash to buy a derivative.

The derivative is calibrated to pay out the return of the index minus the ETN’s fees. Hence it simulates owning the constituents of the index without the expense of trading in the stuff.

In tandem with the remit to concentrate on single assets, that makes ETNs an inexpensive way of tracking otherwise illiquid and inaccessible markets.

But while an ETN sounds as handy as unmanned space probe to Saturn, the downside is it can come apart like Beagle 2. The derivative payments are made by a counter-party (usually a giant investment bank) and if it blows up then the haircut is likely to be a skinhead. (More on this below).

Many ETN factsheets will mention that the product tracks its index at a ratio of 1:1. This means that there is no leverage involved in the investment and a 1% increase in the price of the underlying asset translates into a 1% increase in the price of the ETN.

If the ratio isn’t 1:1 then you’re double-downing with leverage and piling on the risk.

Getting into debt

ETNs are a debt instrument: in exchange for your cash, you get a promise that the issuer will pay you a return in the future. That has a number of implications for the ETN feature set:

  • ETNs often have a specific maturity date like bonds.
  • The return is only paid out on that date.
  • The return is the value of the index (minus fees) on the maturity date.
  • Dividends may or may not be included.
  • Dividends are included if the index is total return (TR).
  • Income distributions aren’t paid before the maturity date.
  • ETNs without a maturity date are described as open-ended.
  • If the counter-party goes bust then you’ll have to join the queue of other creditors demanding their money back.

ETNs are often said to be unsecured debt, but in fact many of them are backed by collateral.

Collateral is the air bag protecting you from the impact of a default. Without collateral you’re 100% exposed to counter-party risk.

Even if the ETN is collateralised, the amount of collateral held is at the whim of the bank. It could be anywhere from 1% to 100%, unlike ETFs which must be at least 90% backed.

While it’s hard to imagine any of the too-big-to-fails going down in the near future, UK banking regulation appears to be preparing for the day. Moreover, investors in a few Lehman ETNs were wiped out in 2008.

Exchange bait

Although most ETNs don’t actually pay a return until maturity date, retail investors can still make money by trading them on the exchange.

Market makers ensure ETNs trade close to the price of the index by exchanging ETN shares with the issuer for the current value of the index.

However, the perceived credit risk of the counterparty can also influence the ETN’s price on the exchange, potentially derailing it from the index it’s meant to be tracking.

Cheap and fearful

ETN costs will often be quoted as an annual management charge (AMC) rather than a Total Expense Ratio (TER).

Some ETNs also throw in fees for hedging against currency fluctuations, and these fees can change on a daily basis.

You’ll find yet other products that don’t charge any fees at all, and these miracles of financial engineering presumably cash in with juicy bid-offer spreads where the issuer is the only market maker.

You’ll also pay a commission to trade via your broker and it’s worth taking a good look at the ETN’s tax status too.

Though ETN’s are debt instruments many seem to be liable for capital gains tax rather than income tax. The tax law still seems to be solidifying on this one, so I wouldn’t take anything for granted. You can also render the whole worry moot, but dropping them into an ISA or SIPP.

On the upside, with ETNs you won’t get stung for stamp duty nor should tracking error be a problem, as the issuer promises to pay the value of the index (less any fees, of course).

Why use ETNs?

ETNs are meant to be a low cost route to portfolio diversification.

For example, if you plumped for the RBS Emerging Market Tracker (annual fee = 0) then you can gain exposure to the world’s hottest economies far more cheaply than through an ETF or index fund.

But I’m not tempted for a number of reasons:

  • The heightened counter-party risk is not to be sneezed at. While it’s easy to think of the investment banks as impregnable fortresses buttressed by government backing, the deteriorating situation in Greece is a timely reminder that global financial markets are far from stable.
  • Less apocalyptic, but adding to my sense of unease, the general standards of transparency relating to ETN documentation and websites are poor. I’m not going to invest in something that feels shrouded in mystery.
  • There are countless variations on the theme. Watch out for leveraged versions, discounted trackers that keep the dividends in exchange for a cut-rate starting price, barrier levels and bonus levels… rampant innovation causes investing accidents.
  • More than anything, the principles of passive investing rely on accepting the return of a diversified portfolio that invests in broad market indices. By contrast, most ETNs focus on thin wedges of the investing pie that expose investors to risks there’s no real need to take.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

 

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Weekend reading: The default drama is in the details

Weekend reading

Good reading from around the Web.

It’s taken over two years and more financial plot twists than you’d get in an episode of EastEnders: Canary Wharf edition, but I’m finally nervous about one of the economic dramas that so excites the world’s worrywarts.

I’m not too bothered about Europe. Despite claims such as those made by The Economist in my reading list below that the situation in Italy and Spain is the real threat, I have long shrugged my shoulders at the escalating crisis and uttered a Gallic “boff!”

Nobody should be surprised by what’s come to pass so far in Europe – it’s the inevitable result of monetary union without fiscal and political union – and Europe as a whole can meet its obligations. But doing so will entail the deeper integration long hankered for by Europe’s politicians but not its people, ushered in through the bond market’s back door. Sixty-odd years after the EU was set-up partly to contain its nationalistic ambitions, Germany will finally be at the heart of an integrated Europe. Whether she’ll be pleased is a different bowl of sauerkraut.

No, much more worrying is the complacency in the market about the threat of a systemic shock of some sort due to the farce unfolding in Washington.

Newspaper headlines are desperately trying to conjure up a ‘market in meltdown’ on these fears, but in fact, the markets haven’t moved much. In the epicenter of the potential quake, US government bond yields have actually dropped, meaning purchasers are judging them safer, not riskier – even as the chance of a downgrade to AA status or worse grows.

I can’t believe the US would be so insane as to default on its debts, but if it does then it will be tin hat time with nobs on.

Quoted by CNBC, Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Garthwaite finds that if no budget deal is struck but the U.S. does not default, each month of no rise in the debt ceiling could easily take 0.5-1 percent off GDP. He predicts equity markets would drop by 10-15%, prompting Congress to find a solution, and that bond yields would fall to 2.75%. Investors would in Garthwaite’s opinion need to get into defensive stocks, and out of the dollar.

But far worse would be an outright default:

That is where things could get nasty, according to the Credit Suisse team.

“This is very unlikely, but if it occurs, GDP could fall 5 percent plus, and equities by 30 percent,” Garthwaite said.

I think even this understates the dangers.

My concern is that the vast issuance of financial undertakings known as repos (repurchase agreements) that make the money markets go around are explicitly linked to the so-called risk-free rate, which is invariably AAA US government debt. A minor downgrade or default that might seem amusing to Republican revisionists could unwittingly set-off a massive chain reaction if it threatens the small print of these multi-trillion dollar obligations – a fear that is already causing some in the City to sit on their hands in a disturbing echo of the post-Lehman’s lock-up of 2008.

Hopefully there will be no US downgrade, and if there is then hopefully such small print will prove a technical sideshow.

However it’s the unforeseen dangers and the unintended consequences that tend to spark true financial routs.

[continue reading…]

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Weekend reading

Good reading from around the Web.

Here’s why 50-somethings need to stop bemoaning that politicians are trying to steal money owed to them by raising the pension age.

From Business Insider:

"Talking about their generations..."

We’re creaking down into an unfunded hole, and we’re pulling our young down with us.

Alas, people have been lied to for years – they genuinely believe the tuppence ha’penny they paid in National Insurance for 30 years has been set aside to underwrite 20 years of golf courses and trips to Spain.

I don’t think the problem is insurmountable, but, aside from environmental degradation, there’s hardly a more urgent one for the West to confront.

[continue reading…]

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Video: Trial, error, and the God complex

Tim Harford explains The God Complex

A lot of people find it very hard to accept the randomness in economic cycles, the stock markets – or in life.

If a share goes down 5%, they have a reason for it. If a share rises 5%, they have a reason for it. Yet if there IS a reason for it, you can be sure they don’t all have the right answer. The sheer multiplicity of their explanations guarantees that.

The snap conclusions that we’re all inclined to make about share prices is a manifestation of The God Complex, a quirk of human psychology that basically says that no matter how complex the situation you’re looking at, you strongly believe your own solution is correct.

Worse, if you’re an expert then you’re even more convinced – when in reality, your superior knowledge should often encourage you to be more circumspect.

It’s well worth taking 18 minutes of your time to watch the following presentation from TED by Tim Harford, the author of The Undercover Economist, on the dangers of The God Complex:

No doubt the God complex equipped us well for life on the plains of Africa, when we had to move quickly and with confidence to avoid being a snack for a passing lion. But it doesn’t help us to evaluate a share for potential investment, or to solve other complex investing issues.

I can barely remember a time when those prepared to speak out about complex economic problems like the debt crisis in the US and Europe spoke in such simplistic, misleading and vehement terms, nor when in contrast those who feared that very complexity were so reluctant to make a move in the market.

For example, I seem to be alone in thinking that European politicians are doing exactly the right think with Greece. They are edging towards a solution via trial and error, seeing how much time a bit of fiddling at the fringes can buy – time for the infinitely more capable market to move towards a solution.

I’m more than happy to keep investing in the face of such fear. The opinion among most media and finance bloggers, in contrast, is that the system will explode unless there’s some ‘grand solution’ that will somehow solve all Europe’s problems for the next 20 years out at a stroke.

In response, I’ll quote a poet:

“The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.”
– William Butler Yeats, The Second Coming

Further reading

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