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I see the peer-to-peer pioneer Zopa has evolved again, with the company introducing “Safeguard”, a new and arguably safer way to lend money.

Hitherto Zopa has worked by matching individual lenders and borrowers in a marketplace. You set the interest rate you’ll accept on your loans, and Zopa pairs your savings up with borrowers (or vice versa).

The main benefit of lending via Zopa has been higher rates than you’d get with a bank. Some people also liked the idea of lending direct to individuals, and cutting out those “greedy” financial institutions.

The downside of Zopa was if a loan soured and your smiling borrower turned into a feckless defaulter, then you lost most or all of the money that you’d lent them.

The default option

Your main protection against default has hitherto been Zopa’s usually excellent credit checking, which has kept bad debt well below the predicted levels (though I suffered when it seemingly went on the blink for a month a few years ago).

In addition, you can spread your money between very many borrowers – perhaps lending as little as £10 to any one individual – in order to reduce the impact of any single borrower doing a runner to Gibraltar.

With a fairly large pot of money and typical luck, you could enjoy a healthy average annual return, after deducting fees and bad debts.

Money lent with Zopa is not guaranteed by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) however, and defaults can and do happen, with cash-sapping results. And just to add insult to injury, the way that Zopa interest is taxed, you’re unable to set these bad loans off against your taxable interest income.

So bad debts didn’t even give you the small mercy of a slightly lower tax bill for your troubles.

Bailing out your DIY bank

Zopa’s new ‘Safeguard’ option radically changes this traditional Zopa model, if we can use the word traditional about a seven-year old service!

First and foremost, Zopa claims you will be reimbursed if any of your loans go sour. This will be done via a special fund held in trust for the sole purpose of returning money owed to savers if their borrowers default.

At a stroke, the bad debt problem largely goes away (at least so long as the compensation fund isn’t overwhelmed by bad loans due to some sort of unlikely systemic failure).

The second big change with Safeguard is that if you lend money via the new system, you no longer set a rate you’ll accept for your money.

Instead, all the money goes into the one Safeguard pot that Zopa bundles up to create loans for new borrowers. For some reason this Safeguard money has been prioritised by Zopa for lending, too, so you should see it lent out very quickly.

The interest rate you get for each microloan via Safeguard is determined by a changing tracker rate.

Zopa says it will adjust this rate by looking at:

  • The rates being set in its own market
  • The rates competitors charge for loans
  • Average savings rates

You’ll likely get different rates across the micro-loans you parcel out via Safeguard. Overall though, your average rate should be in line with what Zopa is predicting – which as I type is 5.1% for shorter term loans.1

The advantage should be that Zopa will be able to fulfil loans more quickly, especially larger loans. This may enable Zopa to feature more prominently on financial comparison tables for a wider range of loan bands, and so drive more borrowers to the Zopa site.

Currently Zopa has a problem where it seems to have a lot of savers but perhaps too few borrowers, considering how competitive it should be given the cheaper loans it usually offers.

You don’t get something for nothing

The immediate disadvantage of using Safeguard is you no longer have any control over the rate you get.

Also, as I see it the rates on offer via Safeguard will likely be lower than might have been available in the usual Zopa market for two reasons:

  • Firstly, some of your return goes to fund Safeguard’s reimbursement war chest
  • Secondly, bank interest rates are lower than you’ve been able to get via Zopa, and the Safeguard tracker rate will follow them down

I think there are likely to be long-term consequences from this shift in the peer-to-peer model, too.

Experimenting with Safeguard

On the face of it, the introduction of Safeguard is good news from Zopa.

It’s always annoying when disproportionate bad luck means an overall poor result, so spreading bad debt across an entire constituency of savers – just as you do when you put money into a normal bank – will be welcomed by all but the most masochistic.

However as my last sentence implies, this move also makes Zopa more like a standard bank in my opinion – only without the nailed-on guarantee on your savings from the FSCS (Cyprus-style deposit raids notwithstanding!)

Safeguard represents more of a fire-and-forget approach to lending money. If it becomes the usual way to lend with Zopa, then this will hit those who’ve enjoyed ‘gaming’ Zopa for an extra 1-2% in interest. I suspect it will also reduce the community feel over time, too.

As an experiment I’ve shifted some of my Zopa savings to a Safeguard offer to target shorter-term loans, and the money is being lent out very rapidly. A third of it has been lent out in barely two hours!

Lending via Safeguard is trivially easy:

The new Zopa Safeguard option is trivial to use

Being a greedy money lender couldn’t be easier with Zopa’s Safeguard option!

Against my expectations, the rate I’m receiving today for most of the latest micro-loans I’m making via Safeguard is actually higher than I was getting yesterday in the normal Zopa marketplace

I wonder though if this is just because the pool of money sitting in the Safeguard pot is still relatively small.

Safety first at Zopa?

It’s anyone’s guess, but I expect Safeguard to eventually become the main method of lending money via Zopa.

Having any bad debts repaid will be just too attractive for most people to resist, even if theoretically they might have done slightly better taking the odd hit but getting higher rates to compensate.

Zopa has been getting simpler and simpler (dare I say dumbing down?) for years. It scrapped its high-risk “C” marketplace and its “Y market” that provided loans to young people, for instance, and it reduced the term options for lenders to “shorter” and “longer”, in place of specific terms measured in years.

I didn’t find those changes detrimental, personally, but the result was undeniably a simpler product.

Some changes have been wholly for the good, especially the “Rapid Return” facility that now enables you to get much of your savings money out at short notice if needed, albeit for a charge. Rapid Return partially addressed the imbalance whereby borrowers could repay early, but lenders had to remain locked into their loans.

I think the new Safeguard product will also prove popular with all but the hardcore, but I wonder where it will end.

It will likely suck more savings into the system, and it will likely bring down rates for those borrowers who find their way to Zopa, too.

But arguably Zopa’s problem is one of insufficient scale, which means any emerging imbalances have tended to be addressed by shifts in its operating model.

In theory, its original market-driven rate-setting system should have produced the perfect equilibrium between risk and reward.

But with Safeguard’s tracker rates partly set by competitors and Safeguard savers having to take what they’re given by way of return, the lofty ideals of the early peer-to-peer enthusiasts seem to be further away than ever.

  • For all the ins-and-outs about Safeguard, visit the Zopa website.
  1. Note though that as an early adopter I am only paying a 0.5% lending fee. New lenders will pay a 1% fee, which will reduce this predicted rate by another 0.5%. []
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Cash rebates ended for DIY investment platforms

Looks like it’s game over for cash rebates and the last surviving refuges where small passive investors are spared the pain of significant platform charges.

Within a year, we’re going to be choosing from clean class funds with slimmed down OCFs1 (Hooray!) while paying beefed-up fees for our platform / fund supermarket / execution-only brokers (Hiss!).

New rules from The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will abolish commission-based payments for DIY platforms, bringing them into line with the RDR revolution that hit financial advisors on the eve of 2013.

Ending cash rebates means transparent pricing

It’s a massive shake-up for the industry that will force many investors to rethink their choice of funds and brokers.

We’re in for a prolonged buffeting from the bow waves of change as a result, so here’s Monevator’s navigational guidance:

The headlines

  • Cash rebates are banned from April 6, 20142.
  • Platform services must be paid for by a platform charge that the investor explicitly agrees to.
  • Unit rebates are allowed. In other words, platforms may negotiate special offers with fund managers that are passed on to investors as extra shares.
  • Critically, the unit bonus must be passed on in full rather than siphoned off in part by the platform.
  • 6 April 2016 – the date ‘legacy’ funds bought before April 6 2014 will have to cease their surreptitious commission paying. All funds will be converted to clean class by then.

Why it’s good

Platforms will no longer be allowed to present themselves as ‘free’, while actually carving out a living from the inflated annual management charges (AMCs) that most investors think go to fund managers.

The idea is that investors will know exactly what they’re paying in fees and that will incentivise platforms to become more competitive.

Fund groups like Vanguard, that refused to pay commission, will become more widely available and put greater cost pressure on the rest of the fund industry.

Fund groups won’t be able to use fat fees to push for undue prominence on platforms, supposedly. They’ll probably buy adverts instead.

The FCA has warned the platforms and the fund groups that it’s got its beady eye on them and won’t put up with any naughties.

Why it’s bad

The financial industry is abuzz with theories on how platforms might circumvent the rules. No-one really believes this is ‘over’.

Small passive investors will pay more for platform services. The old regime took 0.1% in platform charges from an HSBC retail index fund. Now the cheapest clean class platform fee is 0.25%.

Unit rebates (along with cash rebates) are now subject to income tax (outside of an ISA or SIPP). They are on the way out like a football manager after a bad run, which is likely to lead to…

Super clean share classes – Certain platforms are already browbeating fund managers to offer them cheaper versions of clean funds.

In other words, Platform A stocks Fund X with an OCF of 0.75%, but Platform B uses its market muscle to get the same fund for 0.65%.

If you’ve ever stared at MorningStar late at night trying to work out the difference between the F, R and I versions of a fund (what, just me?) then you may well fear supping from the alphabet soup that many in the industry are predicting.

On the other hand, if platforms are able to force down fund prices then investors benefit. I have a feeling that they won’t be scrapping over the lean index fund pickings, anyway.

Now what?

You have just under a year to choose your new investment home – unless you’re lucky enough to be with a super-competitive broker already.

We’ll keep our broker comparison table updated to help you make an informed choice in the months ahead.

Right now, the market approach to platform fees for clean class funds is split in two:

Percentage based fees – The best approach for small investors. Charles Stanley Direct and TD Direct charge along these lines.

Flat-rate fees – Fixed charges (say £60) that put a sizable dent in a small portfolio will barely scratch larger pots. You’ll normally pay an annual fee and then extra to trade on top. See Alliance Trust, Sippdeal, Interactive Investor, Best Invest, and The Share Centre.3

To calculate whether you’re best off with flat rate or percentage-based fees:

Estimate the best annual flat-rate platform charge you can get including trading fees. Divide that number by the best rival percentage charge.

For example:

£60 / 0.0025 (or 0.25%) = £24,000

That number is the breakeven point. At that point, a portfolio worth £24,000 will pay the same platform fee (£60) regardless of whether your broker charges a flat rate or a percentage.

If you’re well under that figure and will remain so for years then go for the percentage based platform.

The example assumes you can buy an identical portfolio of funds at either broker. If not, then our article on clean class funds will help you factor in fund OCF differences.

Do nothing

Most brokers have yet to wean themselves off the commission sugar. There will be a flurry of activity in the next six months as they work out a platform charge fit for the new paradigm.

I believe the majority of investors will be better off sitting tight and waiting for the shake down. Moving your portfolio can be a costly business, so it’s best to do it only the once.

Until April 2016, if you’re sitting on a heap of old-style funds then you will only incur a platform charge on the portion of funds that are sold or ‘changed’ after April 6 2014.

Change does not include:

  • Reinvesting dividends.
  • Automatic rebalancing.
  • Regular contributions set up before 6 April 2014.

Change does include:

  • Increasing your regular contribution.
  • Switching funds in a SIPP.
  • Re-registration.

By 6 April 2016 all funds will be converted into clean class anyway, and commission payments will cease. Not long now.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

  1. Ongoing charge figures. []
  2. Bar leeway of £1 a month per fund so platforms can run promotions and the like. []
  3. From end of May. Full details of charges are yet to be finalised. []
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Weekend reading: Pay monkeys, get peanuts

Weekend reading

Good reads from around the Web.

The tensions between inequality, meritocracy, communism and the incentives of capitalism have been endlessly debated over the years.

But for too long capuchin monkeys were denied their say.

This injustice was corrected by research showing that the little fellas react just as angrily to inequality as any Occupy protestor running low on Skinny Chai Lattes from the oppressors at Starbucks.

The following video shares the story:

(The full version of this TED lecture is available on its website).

I am not sure whether this video really does show the monkey is reacting angrily to not getting equal pay – or whether he’d just like some grapes, too, as they’re clearly on offer.

A better approach might be to deliver the same type of “pay”, but to give greater amounts to the monkey who demonstrates superior performance. Would our furry friends be happy to see higher skill rewarded?

I have no idea, but I do feel sorry for the losing monkey. It all seems a bit cruel.

[continue reading…]

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Day trading is too much fun to be profitable

People like having fun

I am not immune from the gambling instinct. Many years ago I opened a spreadbetting account and had a go at day trading.

I was thrilled when the blinking lights of the trading platform flashed green, and less so when they turned red – though losing money only doubled my resolve!

And there, in a nutshell, is the gambler’s curse.

Losing money makes you want to go back for more. Las Vegas wasn’t built on the triumphs of its punters, but on the takings of the house. And in the long run, the house nearly always wins.

I learned quickly that day trading was dangerous, and never wavered from my main strategy of methodically investing in passive funds and shares.

My interest in investing is intellectually stimulating, and there are certainly some sunny old days when strong company results come in.

But a laugh a minute it is not.

Day trading for fun and profit

When people discover my interest in investing, they usually respond in one of three ways.

  • The most common is complete disinterest, if not mild disdain.
  • They may tell me they’ve got some shares in ARM / Google / BP / RBS and they’re a few hundred quid in profit. What should they buy next?
  • Or thirdly, they might tell me they once had shares in ARM / Google / BP / RBS, and they lost half their money. Shares are a mug’s game!

I can’t recall anyone gleefully telling me they invested in passive index funds. A few when pushed have admitted they “have some sort of ISA in shares”.

Even when it comes to stock picking, it’s once a year that I meet a stranger who reveals they own a portfolio of carefully selected long-term holdings.

No, for the public, being in shares means punting on prices going up and down.

And while that might be expensive fun (though I suspect filling your hot tub with Cristal and scantily clad Eastern Europeans delivers more bangs for the buck) it’s no way to make money.

Making money can be challenging and stimulating. Rewarding, even.

But the selling point is never that it’s easy or fun.

Get rich slowly? Boring!

Of course we’ve all heard entrepreneurs tell us to “follow our passion” to make our money. When running a business feels like fun, you’re already a winner.

I’m sure that’s true, but even if you’re having fun, you’re still not having it easy.

You might smile as you wake at 6am for another 12-hour day with no promise of a pay cheque, but I guarantee you’ll be doing more than clicking a few buttons for your reward.

What about investing in a tracker fund, or buying your own home? Most people make money through home ownership, after all. And it’s not exactly an arduous ordeal – you get to sleep in your investment every night. No sweat!

But the tricky bit with passive investing or buying a home is the long-term commitment. You’re hunkering down for 20-30 years of sticking to a plan.

There’s also the small matter that you have to earn the money to fund these investments with a job, and that is unlikely to be a rip-roaring affair. The returns from residential property or from a typical run in the stock market will not make you rich unless you put a fair amount of money in first.

Who wouldn’t rather put £1,000 into a day trading account, and duck and dive their way to riches?

Who wouldn’t prefer to have a view, push a button, and “take a position”, as the advert says, rather than pushing crates or taking it from the boss?

Yep, you, me and the rest of us. And when everyone wants to do something that is effortlessly easy to do, then you can be pretty sure that all the profits were long since wrung away.

The horrible business of getting rich

I was discussing all this with a friend who told me she’d invested in a wine fund because it was “more fun” than the tracker fund I’d suggested.

If the wine didn’t go up in value, she could drink it!

True, but another failure of the fun test. Too much fun – so it’s less likely to make her real money.

To give yourself the best shot of making a fortune, you need to do something that nobody else wants to do – and where you’ve also found a way to make an outsized profit. (Few people want to be dustbin men, but that won’t make you rich. Owning a toxic waste dump might).

Here are a few examples.

You could start your own business

Long hours, uncertain rewards, a massive chance of failure, and an almost inconceivable list of things nobody ever tells you about that you’ll have to do every day. Most people cannot be entrepreneurs, let alone successful ones, which is why the few who succeed can make a fortune.

Create you own property empire somewhere skuzzy

Head to a grimy part of Manchester or Birmingham, start buying run down properties, refurbish them with sweat equity, hire some heavies to get your rent collected, and wait 30 years for gentrification to finally roll up at your front doors. High chance of success. Strong chance of having a terrible time.

Invest in unlisted start-ups in boring sectors

The returns from investing in successful private companies dwarf those you’ll make from the stock market. No surprise – it’s much harder to find good ones, they’re very illiquid and even harder to get out of than to get into, and a great many fail. Also the best opportunities will be doing something dull and unsexy, so you won’t want to brag.

It’s worth comparing backing boring unlisted firms with being an angel investor in theatre or films.

Who wouldn’t want to be the patron of a troop of bright young things? To be flattered as you’re asked about a new creative concept, and to go to the opening night to be gushed over by your family and friends?

Too much fun, very little effort – and an extremely high chance of losing all the money you put into it.

Do you feel lucky, punk?

Someone somewhere will back the next Cats or Evita this year. Someone will buy a vintage wine or find the next Damien Hirst at a college art exhibition. Someone will pick up shares in a future Amazon-slayer on the day of its IPO.

Being lucky is the easiest way to get rich (though I suspect it’s actually not the most fun – but that’s an existential conversation for another day).

If you want lottery odds on making your fortune, there’s an easy solution – buy a lottery ticket. For every one person who stares in disbelief as their numbers come up and they make a million, another 20 million crumple and toss their tickets in disgust.

Not exactly great fun, but not too much effort, either. And at £1 a week it’s a hell of a lot cheaper than day trading.

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