What caught my eye this week.
Well, it looks like we are gonna make it. No, not in the sense of the crypto mania catchphase (wagmi), which already feels about as relevant as a minstrel who verily does doth his bonnet to such tomfoolery.
But rather, it’s nearly Christmas and a lousy year for investors is coming to an end.
Actually, I’ve kind of lost track of how Monevator readers feel about their portfolios in 2022.
When I was bemoaning my active strategy having blown up in the first-half of the year, sensible world tracker owners and LifeStrategy players largely shrugged their shoulders.
British passive investors and even many UK-focused stock pickers were doing fine – the former helped by currency gains, the latter by tech stocks being as rare on the London market as a Brexit benefit.
However it feels like value destruction has now reached into even those doughty portfolios.
In particular the bond blow-up has caused more emotional distress than I can remember equities ever doling out. (To reiterate, today’s pain with high-quality government bonds is literally tomorrow’s gain. Okay, or maybe the day after.)
Indeed by September Bloomberg was estimating the carnage of the combined crash in equities and bonds had wiped out $36 trillion in wealth. That’s worse than 2008.
Still, a few readers with very unusual portfolios occasionally chime in that they’re doing fine.
Genuinely: good for them!
But remember, most if not all portfolios that were unusually successful in 2022 won’t have delivered the returns you chalked up last year. Or in most previous years, for that matter.
That’s not a criticism. Portfolios are personal things, and higher returns aren’t everything. Some people prefer lower volatility, say, or maybe more income now for lower future gains. But it is a reality check.
Regardless, I’d have loved a slab of what they’ve been eating this year, and unlike my co-blogger I’m violently agnostic about how people go about investing.
Last Christmas
Investing is a long-term game, with results best measured over many years.
That’s as true when meme stock traders are making us feel like losers in a bullish year as when someone with, for example, a permanent 25% allocation to gold is beating a bear market.
For my part, my ten-year dalliance with growth stocks (I began life more as an opportunistic value seeking curmudgeon) finally caught up with me.
Despite suspecting the sell-off in highly-rated US stocks in late 2021 was an early portent, I began buying those fallen darlings. Funded mostly by selling cheap UK equities that I’d previously in-part reallocated into.
It’s hard to imagine a worse move, except to compound it by not cutting bait sooner as the market continued to go against me. Instead I dribbled out of my positions, my portfolio bleeding.
The result is that even after shifting a huge chunk of my portfolio to ‘lower volatility’ assets fairly early in 2022 (as a response to my upcoming remortgaging uncertainty) and the growth rout finally stabilizing, I’m well behind my benchmarks this year. And it’s not like they’re looking very healthy, either.
Of course it didn’t help, again, that the lower volatility assets I’d finally acquired – especially UK government bonds – proceeded to swan dive, then turned to full-on synchronised swimming drowning in the wake of Liz Truss’ Mini Budget.
That’s been the story of my 2022 in a nutshell. Get your tiny violins out!
Monevator was noting inflation was a potential threat as far back as December 2021. Expectations then were still for interest rates to go to about 1% by the end of 2022.
Yet I (re)allocated far too much to rate sensitive ‘long duration’ stocks regardless.
And even though we were early in warning readers to stress test your mortgages, there was nothing much I could do with mine (reminder: unusual circumstances1) until my remortgaging window opened.
Which it finally did… post-Truss. My monthly payments are set to near-triple in the new year.
Fairytale Of New York
If you live by the sword, you die by the sword. Active investing has been good to me overall, but in 2022 I screwed up.
Nothing even half-fatal, but also not something I can blame on the flapping of Black Swans, with the possible exception of the war in Ukraine.
The signs were there, and my game for years has been to act on them. But this year I’ve been more Harry the Hoofer than Lionel Messi. My only consolation is almost all the stockpickers I know or follow are also in the relegation zone.
It’s rarely a good idea to do a deep rethink strategy in the middle of a funk, but I am wondering if it’s finally time to end my longstanding ultra-active investing experiment – I trade something most days – to go back to the sleepier buy-and-hold style where I made my bones.
Keen readers might find out in our upcoming membership service in 2023. And the rest of you will be spared too much more self-indulgent bewailing.
(I’m mostly sharing to show we’re all in the same boat, grumpy pants, but feel free to snicker.)
Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree
I guess there have been a couple of reasons to be cheerful in 2022, if you squint a bit.
Covid as a threat to life has mostly retreated for most of us, as best we can tell.
And UK politics currently looks more stable, albeit that’s a bit like an 18th Century surgeon reassuring a patient that the gangrene has been arrested now their leg has been chopped off.
But otherwise: is it hyperbole to say it’s been another bummer of a year?
I know – it feels like every year has been a duff one recently. But war in Europe, an inflation surge, widespread strikes, rising energy bills, a stock market crash and bond market implosion, political chaos, the economic consequences of Brexit finally coming home…
…it could certainly be worse, but it’s not just me, is it?
As ever reading has been a comfort. Both for its practical insights and on the grounds that when you see what others have gone through, you take everything less personally.
Here are a few from this year that would make great last-minute presents.
Richer, Wiser, Happier by William Green
Ostensibly a recap of various investors who found ways to best the market – including Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, who saw an investor could do better than most by simply making peace with it – William Green’s book also has a lot of wisdom on living tucked into its pages.
How to Fund the Life You Want by Powell and Hollow
My co-blogger The Accumulator raved in his recent review: “If I was starting from scratch, this is the UK personal finance book I’d want to read first”. He’s not an ebullient chap at the best of times, so I’d be inclined to believe him.
The Power Law by Sebastian Mallaby
After More Money Than God, his previous work on hedge funds, I knew the Mallaby treatment applied to venture capital was just what my doctor ordered. A deep dive into an opaque industry, Mallaby should be working on a new edition given how things turned south for the sector in 2022.
The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel
Okay, this was a re-read. But Morgan Housel’s two-year old treatise on the ways money acts on our thinking and in our lives has sold two million copies for a reason. Brain food for anyone in your life.
The Man from the Future by Ananyo Bhattacharya
I think this also came out in 2021. Never mind, I’ve been in awe of von Neumann since I came across his work as a student and this book reminded me why. One of a genius generation of Hungarians who US colleagues dubbed The Martians, so brilliant was ‘Johnny’ that even the Martians thought he must be a time traveler.
All I Want For Christmas Is You
And that’ll do it for Monevator in 2022.
Actually, not quite – checking the calendar I see the next Weekend Reading I plan to send out will be on Saturday 31 December.
But that strange period between Christmas and New Year’s Day always feels out of time to me. It’s perhaps my favourite week of the year.
It’s been an odd year for the site, too, incidentally, and you can expect some changes in 2023.
Far more people now read new Monevator articles on email than on the web (subscribe if you haven’t) and we were hit by some kind of Google algorithm change about 18 months ago that has further flattened website traffic.
One result is we’ll probably de-cloak and highlight our identities soon, to try to convince our Google overlords that we’re not nefarious swindlers.
Do please curb your enthusiasm.
We’re also finally going to roll out some sort of membership/paywall offering.
Internet display advertising continues to dwindle. And despite what people keep telling us, affiliate sales don’t do much around here either – probably because we’ve trained or cultivated an audience of proud skinflints, but also because I refuse to run most stuff that would make more money (despite what the house troll complains).
Fear not! Monevator will mostly remain a free site and newsletter; we’ll just be hiving off a few morsels for those who are willing to chuck us a few quid.
At times this blog cost me money to keep going this year, which after 17 years and a lot of kind reviews is a bit ridiculous. Moreover it badly needs a redesign, which needs more funding. 2008 chic can only last for so long.
Finally – whisper it – but I think we’re going to get the Monevator book out at last in 2023. It’s written. It’s down to me to buckle down to the faff of publishing.
With a schedule of investing-related treats like that to come, who needs a stock market rally, eh?
Thanks for sticking with our long and deep posts in an ever more bite-sized and TikTok-ified world. We honestly try.
Merry Christmas, and a happy new year to you all.
p.s. Bumper list of links this week to get you through the holidays. Enjoy!
From Monevator
How to Fund the Life You Want review – Monevator
Investment trusts discounts and premiums – Monevator
From the archive-ator: What are growth investors looking for? – Monevator
News
Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view click through to read the article. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing to sites you visit a lot.
Bank of England raises rate to 3.5%: what does it mean for you? – Moneyfacts
Property sales volumes to fall 21% next year as mortgage arrears rise… – FT Advisor
…while Halifax is predicting an 8% fall in house prices – Guardian
Microsoft to buy 4% of London Stock Exchange on cloud deal – Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance
Monevator ranked UK’s top personal finance blog for the second year running – Vuelio
ONS figures show the rise of ‘unretirement’ – This Is Money
Nuclear fusion breakthrough: what is it and how does it work? – BBC
SpaceX tender offer is said to value company at $140bn – Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance
Games Workshop signs deal with Amazon for Warhammer films – Hollywood Reporter
Alt strategies haven’t done much for diversified portfolios this century… – Finominal
…though KKR says these ones can usefully diversify a 60/40 portfolio right now – II
Products and services
Wise has a new wrapped-gilt product it calls ‘Interest’ – Wise
N&SI has upped its rates, including the prize fund for Premium Bonds – NS&I
Transfer your pension to an ii Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) before 31 December 2022 and claim up to £1,000 cashback. Terms apply – Interactive Investor
Jeremy Hunt floats ‘stretchy mortgages’ to lower monthly bills and curb repossessions – This Is Money
Zopa, Chase, and Chip apps are all paying more following the BOE rate rise – This Is Money
How much power do your gadgets use? – Guardian
Britain’s forgotten benefit: thousands missing out on bereavement support – Which
Morningstar CEO says direct indexing can make investing fun again – Investment News
Homes for sale in historic villages, in pictures – Guardian
Comment and opinion
The California effect – Mr Money Mustache
Riding out the storm – Humble Dollar
Should retail investors buy gold? [Search result] – FT
Inflation’s final destination – Bond Vigilantes
Rich friends and the wealth game [Inspired by our post, podcast] – Stacking Benjamins
Defining ‘enough’ – Young Money
Take calculated risks – Collaborative Fund
Tremors felt in the UK housing market – The Motley Fool
Overpaying your mortgage? Perhaps you shouldn’t [Search result] – FT
How often is the [US] stock and bond market down in consecutive years? – AWOCS
Why isn’t it more expensive? – Fortunes & Frictions
A nation deep in debt: part two [Podcast] – A Long Time In Finance
Saxo Bank’s outrageous predictions for 2023: the war economy – Saxo Bank
FTX collapse has lessons for everyone mini-special
A key ingredient of the FTX fraud – Demystifying markets
The FTX lesson that all investors should learn – Portfolio Charts
Crypt o’ crypto
Binance outflows hit $6bn as Mazars halts ‘proof of reserves’ work [Search result] – FT
No one is happier about Sam Bankman-Fried’s downfall than the Bitcoin people – Slate
How CoinDesk’s crypto FTX scoop left a hole in its corporate overlord – The Verge
The fall of FTX shocked everybody. Except this guy – The Atlantic
Naughty corner: Active antics
UK equities: mispriced opportunities abound – Schroders
Sea change – Howard Marks
End of ‘fantasy’ stock market brings relief and pressure for short sellers [Search result] – FT
The importance of the FAANG stocks is fading – Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance
Monetary policy may have a longer lag than we thought – Klement on Investing
Investing in the African future – The Motley Fool
Valuing private companies is hard, and the pros are conflicted – Institutional Investor
Should your portfolio protection act fast or slow? [Research, PDF download] – AQR
Did a CPI leak spark a 60-seconds-too-early rally? – Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance
Covid corner
Kindle book bargains
I Am Zlatan Ibrahimovic by Zlatan Ibrahimovic [Holiday read!] – £0.99 on Kindle
Surrounded by Bad Bosses and Lazy Employees by Thomas Erikson – £0.99 on Kindle
The Business Book by DK Publishing – £1.99 on Kindle
Quiet Leadership: Winning Hearts, Minds, and Matches by Carlo Ancelotti – £0.99 on Kindle
Environmental factors
The rampaging avian influenza is entering unknown territory – Hakai
The ESG backlash is partly driven by (some of) the right’s climate change denial… – Vox
…but Vanguard’s recent net zero backtracking is more about index fund reality – P&I
Should we build wind turbines from wood? [A couple of weeks old] – New Scientist
Health-y debate mini-special
Rethinking the causes of Alzheimer’s disease – Quanta
Scientists finally know why people get more colds and flu in winter – CNN
New obesity breakthrough drugs – Ground Truths
The NHS cafes that save lives – Prospect
Hearing aids slow cognitive decline, but we’re not sure why – New Atlas [h/t Abnormal Returns]
A dangerous stew of air is choking the United States – Nature
Off our beat
And what if you can’t tell? – Seth Godin
How Putin’s technocrats saved the economy to fight a war they opposed [Search result] – FT
This psychologist spent five years studying penalty shootouts – Wall Street Journal via Mint
Why competitive advantages die – Morgan Housel
The middle class is dead. Long live the long tail class – Dror Poleg
TSMC: semiconductors and the borders of light – The Generalist
How to keep going when life gets hard – Darius Foroux
52 Snippets from 2022 – Snippet
And finally…
“Like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, Mohnish Pabrai spends most of the day reading…”
– William Green, Richer, Wiser, Happier
Like these links? Subscribe to get them every Friday! Note this article includes affiliate links, such as from Amazon and Interactive Investor. We may be compensated if you pursue these offers, but that will not affect the price you pay.
- Effectively it means I can’t go elsewhere, though knowing now how my bank’s remortgaging works it turns out I could have paid a charge and remortgaged early. [↩]
I know I’m an outlier on so many scales, but I like long and deep posts and haven’t the patience to chase after dozens of light bite morsels.
Also I’ve got your website link on my home page and see no reason to clutter my inbox with what I can access with a click.
Thanks for all the valuable information you have provided over the years, and will provide in the future.
Enjoy the festive season, and have a happy 2023.
What a year! Thank you for your brilliant writing
I only came across Monevator a year or so ago, but it has been a fantastic guide as I try to bring stability to my investing journey towards retirement over the next 15 years or so
Oh, don’t forget Lars great Investing Demystified book too. Picked it up a few months back on your recommendation, and has been re-read several times
Merry Christmas all!
Thanks for all your efforts. Have been reading for more years than I can remember and would be happy to contribute money. Your archive is the most valuable bit of this site, I would venture.
Sounds like you and me both then @TI, in terms of the N year growth bubble popping during 2022. At least your debt load is the conventional mortgage kind.
Great post as usual, at the end of another great year for Monevator. Thanks for everything you do for me, my blog and the wider investing/PF community. Your co-bloggers too are all excellent and deserve much seasonal goodwill.
I will be very likely to cough up for your paid for version – especially if I can do it as a tax deductible expense via my Ltd company!
Merry Christmas and best of luck in 2023.
I can’t claim to be any kind of expert, but I think I remember an interview with Sam of FTX around a year ago where there were hints that his approach was not necessarily aligned with those of other interested parties. Essentially, he was saying the whole thing was basically set up to allow him to maximise his effective altruism, and he wasn’t fussed if it all collapsed some day. That to me, was a Jimmy Saville like example of hiding in plain sight – and I stayed well clear.
My Isa is down on its max value by approx 5 %. Don’t know how many times it’s got within 1 % down but it’s been quite a few, and then, bang 3% down, 4 % 5 % even up to 9% and then crawls back up. Its been a long year. My pension is down about 14% . I was going to retire about now but hopefully move it to Easter in the anticipation of bonds doing well next year.
I for one love the blogs 2008 chic and that the author’s are anonymous. There’s something about the anonymity that gives you, as a reader, the notion that if Mr Monevator can do it then I can too!
Please don’t make the new site too flashy.
Modern too often seems to mean unreadable now.
Reading keeps me sane too – although I read far more fiction than non-fiction. But if you get that book out, I’ll buy it.
Otherwise thanks for the continuing great info and links.
Have a great Christmas and an even better 2023.
Thank you for the article and your efforts over the year and those of your co-contributors and hope you all have a good Christmas.
In terms of portfolio performance, I am not well organised enough to be sure but I might be down something less than 10% owing to carrying far too much cash. One advantage of dealing with nominals is that inflation isn’t captured so that will be -11% on the cash. Doesn’t hurt though as the numbers don’t show it !
Thanks for another year of great quality content. Looking forward to the book and whatever may come in ’23… surely (he says as the gods laugh) things can only get better!
Oh I’d been looking forward to links about the bribery and corruption allegations against the European Parliament. Will be quite something if we find the mighty EU can be bribed by Morocco. Next year perhaps
Probably time to bite the bullet and go passive ? Anyone could have made money over the past ten years, real question is if you can over the next forty…
Many thanks for all your posts and info over the years. Good luck with the new website. Have a great time over the festive season. See you in 2023.
Andrew
Congrats on (yet) another year at the coalface. I always found website ads and affiliate stuff never really makes meaningful amounts of money, so I think your paywalled content should easily do better. It may even allow you to become the internet’s full-time Monevator, assuming that’s something you’re interested in.
May your stocks be blessed in 2023.
An uncomfortable year, that’s for sure.
I’m down around 15% on the year; more still from the peak.
I’m fifty percent VWRP, fifty percent in just five well known more active collective-investment choices.
Fortunately, that’s excluding a large amount in cash, currently being ravaged by the inflation monster.
However…
Without discovering this well-written, informative and absorbing blog, I know for sure that I wouldn’t be in the still-favourable financially secure position in which I’m fortunate to be. Or at least not to the same extent.
Thank you, and compliments of the season to you and to your regular contributors, to your readers and commenters, and to the many, many people far less fortunate than ourselves.
Seconding Andrew #7 and Sara #8. This blog is one of the few left that is readable and anonymity has a lot of benefits. My other Must Read FI blog is also anon.
Please don’t mess with it and make it all flashy and awful. It’s a calm and restful place where a lot of content can be read very quickly still. Last time that happened was before Google sunsetted Google Reader and killed RSS.
I’m in for the paid one as well if it’s in budget.
The latest Stacking Benjamins podcast has your recent “circle of friends” article as the main talking point, which I thought was nice.
Certainly interested in the book, happy with the current design of the website too.
Thanks as ever for the content. A weird year but relatively unscathed given the circumstances.
I’m sure this has been raised and discounted before, but is Patreon an option? I’d be happy to chuck a couple of quid a month your way if so (and sure others would too!).
Sick to the teeth with growth investors moaning about 2022 I did a decade long test on the v useful https://backtest.curvo.eu/ site
Here’s what I found in my usual sloppy half arsed way looking at a last decade:
FTSE All World +300%
S&P 500 +400%
NASDAQ +600% (this was the proxy I used for growth investing)
In short – shut up already – you’ve never had it so good
Portfolio down 11% from Sept 2021 highs so cannot really complain
Bond funds didn’t do their thing this year but that’s the first time for many years
No doubt their time will come again as bonds roll over in to the new issues
Patience required and perhaps a little abstinence in the Spring-not really a problem for 76 year olds!
Over more immediate concern is the number of my compatriots falling by the wayside -a wife/husband/partner -partially or completely “biting the dust”
Been lucky that both of us -wife and I- kept healthy so far but it’s only a matter of time before “the fat lady sings”for one or both of us
Puts the stockmarket and it’s shenanigan’s in proportion!
Happy Christmas to you and a healthy and prosperous New Year -you do great work-please keep going !
xxd09
Congratulations on the Vuelio ranking – well deserved!
All the very best for a kinder 2023 everyone. Nearlyrich
A bit of commentary about the disgusting corruption of the EU would have been nice by way of balance, but hey ho.
Im always amazed that you never run out of great ideas for topics on this blog – they keep coming and never disappoint. Add to that the great writing, and also the interesting comments thread, and it makes for the best financial blog out there. Always look forward to the Saturday special too.
Wishing all the contributors a great Christmas and all the best for 2023.
I had a final salary pension transfer, that was 9 months in the preparing, finally completed and fully invested in a global tracker fund on – you guessed it – Jan 4th (or whatever the peak day was). All downhill from there.
I’ve repeatedly imagined reading future articles about the worst possible moments in history to invest, that conclude with the usual “Of course, no-one actually invests all their money on the day before the crash begins” and me shouting “Yes, they do! They really bloody do!”.
Thank goodness for our crap currency, which has softened things considerably.
What’s doubly annoying is that my intention was to drip feed in over a few months, but I wasn’t allowed to do that – because we can no longer be trusted to manage such things ourselves, and must be protected by financial advisors for the initial investment. (Maybe if I’d been willing to pay exorbitant fees for ongoing support I’d have had more options.)
Ah well, I’m mostly over it now. I know I’m in a massively fortunate situation, and it’s only about 20% of my net worth, but I know that it will annoy me for the rest of my life!
Thanks for all your wisdom in 2022 and before. Without what I’ve learnt here, I never would have had the confidence to transfer my pension in the first place. (Come to think of it, maybe I should be blaming you, not thanking you…)
Thank you for another year of great writing. I looking forward to the arrival of the book and will also be in for the membership.
Merry Christmas to all on what is one of my favourite corners of the internet.
@mr optimistic 4
Surely cash at full balance but losing 11% to inflation is better than investments down 5 or 10% and inflation simultaneously running at 11%
Always love reading monevator..thankyou.
@EcoMiser — Indeed, but as you say you’re an outlier nowadays (and I’ve got at least one foot in your camp). Probably twice as many people read a new Monevator article over email on the first day now as on the website. (Over the long-term of course the website gathers more views). You’re very welcome re: the articles, cheers!
@Mark — Thanks for that, better late than never! 😉 Friend of the site Lars’ book is always in the running (@TA mentions it in that review of his) but these were books I read this year. I met Lars a decade ago, and that was after reading at least one of his books, though possibly his hedge fund one.
@PC – Cheers! Yes, it’ll be a bit of a ‘support the site for all the free stuff’ type vibe I think. Over the years I’ve had at least 100+ people ask me how to donate money freely (other jobs: none!) but I didn’t feel comfortable with a straight up Patreon or tip jar. Hopefully a low-priced membership option can give people a bit of something plus the chance to help keep the rest of the show on the road.
@Fire V London — Thanks for that! If it’s any consolation my mortgage has caused me some stress given the Truss debacle, but yeah I would hate to be marked to market.
@G — Yes he’s said some pretty weird things, but most seem to have been seen differently in the light of all that has happened. I vividly remember listening to an interview with one of the new generation VC/blogger hybrids where I basically thought I’d wasted my life compared to what he’d achieved in five years. Not so much now…
@Griff — Good you have that flexibility, good luck for 2023!
@Andrew — Haha, I think the ‘if those chumps can do it’ feeling will definitely withstand contact with the mundane reality. But yeah, I never did this site for fame. Coming out is sort of being forced upon us by Google. With that said I suppose it’ll be nice to do interviews, meet PF bloggers, perhaps do some podcasts or videos, which I have done before in another realm.
@Sara — Thank you! It’s very tricky. I know younger people who literally laugh when they see the site now. Personally I don’t see it that way, but obviously I have a sort of snow blindness. Plus it’s very hard for people to access that archive that was mentioned further up the thread (over 2,000 articles now!) So we’ll see.
@Mr Optimistic — I think too much is made of nominal versus real returns. Not that real returns are *everything* — they are — but equally *nearly everything* is affected by inflation. (E.g. people will say ‘don’t sit in cash, buy shares, because inflation!’ Yes but shares are being eroded in real terms by inflation too. You’re buying for the promise of higher returns to come to make up for that inflation, not for inflation-immunity. I need to write a post on this). Cheers!
@mr_jetlag — Thanks, that would be nice eh?
@BBlimp @Don’t Mention The War — You guys are so cute. The ‘corrupt’ and ‘mighty’ EU et cetera… Of course there are MPs that can be bribed in Europe, there are political scandals everywhere from time to time. Currently you’ll have noticed the last beloved Brexiteer administration is mired in a corruption scandal (PPE) that has seen resignation from the Lords etc, and involves billions of our money by all accounts. By your argument, that’s ‘corrupt Westminister’ too. I haven’t featured (to my memory) any of the PPE scandal stuff because I prefer to focus on the big structural political car crashes (e.g. Brexit). But also because outside of a few right-wing papers desperately trying to find reasons to keep kicking the EU when it’s become obvious to everyone who wants to see that the whole ‘evil EU is holding us down’ thing was an almighty con — nobody cares. (I won’t be carrying on this political conversation further, by the way, on the don’t feel the trolls principle. It’s Christmas. Have a good one. 🙂 ) On the more interesting and on-topic note, I’m not sure why harder returns to come would mean I should switch to a tracker now? (which could be good advice for many other reasons?) If I could beat the market in the easy times, I’d have more reason to believe I can eek out a positive return *if* things are tougher? Of course, ifs abound. 🙂
@todthedog — Cheers, you too!
@John Kingham — Thanks for the thoughts. Well we do get some income from both, but the site takes at least 30-60 man hours a week between us (conservatively, @TA dives deep when he writes!) with just these links along basically taking a day of work with the intro. (Most stuff I read doesn’t make the cut, is the issue) Then there’s the technical stuff, the need to redesign, and basically my life would be far simpler (if somewhat non-financially poorer) if I just turned it off. I don’t want to do that, at all, so hopefully we can find another way that works for everyone, without disrupting anything too much. 🙂
@ChesterDog — Thanks for the generous words, glad you’ve found us helpful. Your point about a ravaged but plump portfolio being a nice problem to have is well-taken.
@The Hare — I’d like to stay anonymous (seriously, me and @TA have been debating this for a decade) but I think it’s coming to the end of the road. Don’t expect a home page with a photo of me waving tenners around or whatnot, though. Hopefully we can keep the fun bylines, but link to a bio page that then links to LinkedIn or whatnot and appeases Google into thinking we’re not shysters. As I understand it. (There are other things we need to do too. But basically Google has this well-intentioned policy for money and health sites that we seem to have fallen foul of about knowledgeable sources etc). If we started doing video that might sneak into the home page, but very tastefully I’d hope. I appreciate your positive review of what we’ve done here very much, and while a lot of readers have come and gone over the years (espousing ‘invest passively and do something else’ will do that!) I don’t want to alienate long-timers *at all*. But I guess there will be a bit of change, to keep going forward.
@PortlyGent — Yes indeed. I have it in the links but thanks for the heads up! It was a fun conversation I thought. Me and Len Penzo used to swap emails back in… 2008?!
@CleanShoes — Patreon is an option and it has been suggested many times, but I don’t love it for us. It feels (without judging anyone who does it) something that I’d like to see more reserved for artists and the like. When personal finance ‘gurus’ on YouTube are making hundreds of thousands a year if not millions by sharing meme stock adventures — or just reading their Vanguard statements out — I’d like to hope we can at least cover our time here with something more commercial too, that doesn’t disrupt what we already do. So basically it’ll be Patreon’s membership option, which allows us to deliver some exclusive new content. It’s important to me as a hardened capitalist that people get *something* for their money. We’ll see how it works out. (The other advantage is I can write about my active stuff without having to caveat everything to death for casual readers I don’t want to lead astray from index funds. That’s a real benefit.)
@Neverland — Never take up producing fresh content or indeed doing anything other than moaning on website comments. Keep playing to your strengths! 🙂 Merry Christmas.
@xxd09 — Thank you. Mathematically bonds are in a much better place now. Doesn’t mean they’ll do anything exciting (or even be positive in 2023) but inflation will really have to get entrenched to have a repeat of 2022. A lot of the wood has been chopped I feel.
@NearlyRich — Cheers!
@JP — Very kind, thank you. Yes after 17 years we have covered almost everything. Sometimes that’s why we’ll update something 5-10 years old, with a topical revamp. (Again, good for Google too) which I suppose might occasionally wrankle long-time readers with good memories (okay, I mean @Neverland) but with over 2,000 articles on the site seems a reasonable compromise.
@Dave S — Ah that’s rotten luck. Yes I tend to think people should do big transfers in portions for that very reason — not because it’s mathematically the best chance of the highest return, but the best odds of minimizing regret. I was going to say maybe you could have transferred to say a LS 60/40 or similar then increased the risk over time, but of course that would have clobbered you too this year. We’d never dream of telling anyone what *they* should do with their particular pension via mass-reach articles on a website, so we’ll take neither the blame nor the praise. All we can ever do is our best job at sketching out the parameters, and helping readers to think for themselves. 🙂
@Bernie — Cheers, good to hear you’re on board and have a great Christmas!
@Jim — Exactly.
@Dawn — Thanks, you’re welcome!
Life must be pretty good if our biggest problem is how our investments are down this year! Wishing everyone a great 2023. Thanks to the team @Monevator for giving us quality financial content.
Thanks TI for slogging through 2022 and your regular weekly links and updates. Truly appreciated and good luck for 2023.
“I trade something most days” … I’m sure I am not the only reader whose mouth fell open when they read this shameful confession from Monevator author The Investor. Active investing is a temptation we all understand and flirt with, but daily trading? ‘Do as I say, not as I do’ may be a cliche for a good reason, but most people to whom it applies aren’t actually doing the polar opposite of what they preach.
Frankly, Im not surprised you made mistakes this year. I don’t suppose anyone is surprised. If you are trading nearly every day, you would probably be better off letting a professional run your portfolio.
@Dave S (#23):
I noticed in November that CETV’s had fallen around 20% over the previous year. Might not make you fell better, but worth bearing in mind.
@TI & @TA
Thanks for another year of great posts; please keep up the good work.
Another cracking year of commentary and tuition from both TI, TA and many guests for which, again, I can only thank you. Next year if your paywall is within my, now retired, budget perhaps I can do more. The book still has space on my shelf reserved.
My year has not been as disastrous as many peoples so I can’t complain. Yes I am down on the stocks and shares side of things but as I said at the start of the year I was heavily slewed towards cash which has suffered inflation but not numerical loss. This, I will freely state, was pure luck. I am still cash heavy and eagerly await the next tax year to shelter some more of it.
I retired early this year with a push out of the door from my employer at a very timely moment, again pure luck brought about by mainly keeping my mouth shut as I wanted to go anyway. I am pretty certain that reading this blog over the years has had a lot to do with my early and happy, if busy retirement (more like funemployment with me being both client and boss at the moment).
Who knows what next year will bring. I hope it treats everyone kindly.
(Check your Amazon book links TI, I found a duff one 🙂 )
JimJim
Thank-you for all your hard work on the site and interesting articles. It’s become an oasis of sanity over the past few years. Merry Christmas.
@Dave S you might like to consider the counter factual. If you had not transferred last Jan but requested a transfer value now I am sure the value would be considerably less given 15 year gilt yields and Index Linked Gilts. You might even find the new transfer value to be less than your current portfolio. I don’t think you will really know if the transfer was financially a good idea for many years.
Final salary schemes FSS bring security of an income stream and peace of mind avoiding the ups and downs of an equity portfolio. So they are great for the less adventurous types.
You might also like to see what income you would get if you bought an index linked annuity now with the portfolio funds. You might finds you could buy more income than under the previous FSS, especially as some schemes cap the indexation at 3 or 5%.
In summary don’t beat yourself up too much about the decision and certainly don’t dwell on it for the rest of your life.
Your series of articles on long term care costs are the best information on the subject around and well worth any subscription. Thank you.
2022 was certainly lousy, but I’ve found the entire 2020’s to have been quite miserable. A pandemic, a deteriorating political environment, war, inflation, the loss of a parent, and another who has lost mobility in that time, has meant 2019 seems a lifetime ago. If we could go back to December 2019 and your FIRE debate and start again from there please, that would be much appreciated.
Reading Monevator is at least a positive. I appreciate how much work it must take. Thanks for all of your posts and the slightly comforting feeling that I’m not alone, and that others worry about the personal finance related things I do too. I’m about as active as Haley’s comet, so I’m unlikely to subscribe to active chat but I’ll certainly buy your book.
Let’s hope for a better 2023. Have a great Christmas and new year TI, TA, the other contributors and all Monevator readers.
@Al Cam (#31) – That’s a very good point. I’d seen some headlines during the year, but must admit I’d forgotten about them. So thanks for the reminder – it does make me feel better.
@Karnak (#34):
All good points, but assuming your FSS is not a government backed (aka public sector or unfunded) scheme, there is always the risk of the DB fund failing into the Pension Protection Fund (PPF) – which can be far from generous.
@Ian — Well I have other problems but this is an investment site primarily…with occasional blurred lines! Thanks, and have a great 2023 too.
@Mathmo — Much missed! Great to see you’re still lurking. 🙂
@Green As Grass — “Shameful confession”. LOL. Firstly, I’ve written about it quite often on the site (e.g. https://monevator.com/days-of-being-wild-part-one/) though compared to the first ten years of Monevator less often, for exactly the sort of reason we’re seeing here. What’s more I’ve mentioned it in the comments more months then not, and you’re a commenter. Perhaps if we’d spent less time trying to find some merit in your Brexit project and more time focusing on investing… 😉 As for the rest of your comment, haha, you have no idea what you’re talking about. All professional investors have off years. My lagging returns this year are very largely due as I say to a broad sectoral mistake (over allocating back to growth far too soon) not anything to do with daily trading (which for me tends to rotate around the same 100 or so different on/off securities, where I have been running a long experiment in finessing owning nearer to my ideal portfolio at any time, rather than let it drift). To the extent I traded around those growth positions, I took some of the edge off the pain. (The main drawback for me is not so much the hit to returns but the effort and distraction, and taking my eye off the big picture winners at times, such as Tesla.) But seriously, you Brexit-y types don’t really need to wait to pounce. I make mistakes and get things wrong all the time — in life and beyond — and have written about them dozens of times. Of course I don’t *still* support a foolish Brexit that’s now plainly screwing the whole country and has delivered zero benefits, but there are levels to these things. 🙂
@Al Cam — Cheers, will make sure @TA sees this thread!
@Jim Jim — Thanks, have a great 2023 and cheers for all the substantial comments over the year. You and several other key commenters (including some above!) add a lot of value to our site with good natured insight and query.
@GrumpyTortoise — Very kind. Merry Christmas!
@Karnak — Useful perspective, cheers for sharing (to my point above about the value of many Monevator comments).
@ChrisW — The care articles were a labour of love for @TA. A shame it has to take so much work to decode our system, but I suppose it will always be complicated.
@never give up — Thanks very much, like with all the comments above it’s heartening to hear we’ve carved out a tiny but regular space in people’s lives. Have a great 2023!
@Karnak (#34) – Again, thanks. I’m still a good few years from minimum pension age, and my motivation was mostly around flexibility of when I could start drawing pension. The whole fund is only down 9% as we speak (thank you GBP), and the original CETV offer was enhanced by 15% because the scheme was keen to get rid of the liability. So I’m still up on the deal, and certainly not in need of sympathy. It’s still annoying, though!
But I appreciate the kind words, and I echo TI’s point about the value of comments on this site more generally – they are one of the reasons I read it, and it’s the only site I’ve ever commented on myself.
@Dave S – My husband got a CETV last October of and he has just received the new valuation which is down 42%, so I think you did well to get out when you did. Hope that helps.
@TI and TA – Thank you for all the hard work and education you have given me over the last few years. I love this site and look forward to my Saturday reading.
I second the comments on the articles on care – a huge amount of work and sharing of incredibly useful knowledge gained. Not an easy subject and wouldnt be surprised if some government agency asks to re-use some of your content for training purposes!
Big thankyou ti/a and to all for 2022 , 2023 should be my modest/leanfire year…. or will it be…. just one more year. Wouldnt be where I was without this site/owners, contributors and commenters as don’t have high income but have for the last 8years used guidence from here.
As I’ll hopefully be moving out of the workforce, my children will be entering it and most importantly Im passing on the wisdom from yours and mine experience with investing both wealth and health, you will of helped with the information legacy being passed down (and hopefully a nice chunk when I pass swr 3.3%btw), thankyou!
@Lesley J (#41):
Re: is down 42%
Yikes!!
Can I add my Christmas greetings to @TI and @TA along with all those above? I enjoy this blog, and hope not too much of it disappears behind a paywall.
Like others, it had never occurred to me it is “2008 chic”, there are very few other blog-style websites that are as clearly laid out. The only thing is that navigating the archive doesn’t work too well, but I don’t think that is web design as much as the need for someone to put some work into re-tagging.
While I have not felt any curiosity about your identities, I do see the benefit of “coming out”. I am sure that Martin Lewis does very well from his media appearances, and you deserve a share of that market.
Thank you from the bottom of my heart for everything you write and publish. It has been a real education for me. Partly thanks to your site, I’ve been transformed from the someone who said “I’m really bad at money” and shrugged to someone who has an almost paid-off home and a growing nest-egg. I am infinitely less stressed and a great deal more confident and hopeful.
Thank you for what you do.
Big thanks for writing, directing and producing Monevator for a relatively dramatic season! And for all the links and comments, which somehow I think averaged out give a great take on the direction of things.
Ive also had a down SIPP year ~20% from absolute peak, but very OK with it for a growth heavy mix. Ive been drip feeding back into the tech indexes (and a tail of tech ETFs) since early in the year after pulling back to ~ 40:60 before the end of ’21 (heeding the fear on Cape), now reversed to more like 70:30. So yes more optimistic that the worst is behind, but not all in. Reserve asset has been replaced partly with short terms bonds (a first!), income ITs and stocks, a little % to gold and now minimal cash.
Access day is on the horizon now so pondering whether there are any constructive options for the 25% (say for diversification) or is it just better to leave alone till needed.
Ditto from me all of the positive comments above.
Saturday morning for me is always Monevator and a coffee and a most enjoyable and informative few hours, even when I am abroad on holiday.
Looking forward to the book and love the current website.
Thank you TI & TA.
Seasons Greeting and Best wishes to all for 2023
Just wanted to add my heartfelt thanks for being such a well written site and an oasis of calmness and valuable information and insight. I have certainly profited from the information provided, and it has been pretty well totally responsible for the change in my investing style from illogical leaps of faith with individual shares to a much more successful and less worrisome passive portfolio.
Surprised to learn that the majority of readers are via the email. I always click on the email link to go straight to the site, as for me the comments are just as entertaining as the site.
I also would be happy to subscribe but wouldn’t want too much change from the current design, it seems pretty well perfect to me!
Best wishes to yourself, @TI, and your respective families. As for 2023, I think the only thing we can predict is that it will be unpredictable (as ever!).
Another thank you – weekend reads is part of my weekend routine and never fails to be interesting and informative. I also have no doubt that my family’s financial wellbeing is significantly better than it otherwise would have been had I not found this site many years ago now. Will definitely be signing up to the membership.
I’m about 15% down which feels a bit sore but manageable. I guess that means my portfolio is roughly well enough matched to my risk appetite. Will be putting more money to work once the tax year rolls over.
Just a note to day that I read you via RSS with a news aggregator (NewsBlur as it happens). Please don’t break that. Ta.
Btw my Permanent Portfolio has done what it did during the pandemic, Ukraine, etc.: coped. As a disabled person who suffers long periods of cognitive impairment, coping is what I need.
Cheers!
Many thanks to TI & TA for my favourite go-to website. It’s undoubtedly made my RE a real thing. Soon… maybe just OMY.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
@Dave S #23 – I can only echo the other comments referencing worsening in CETV, and in fact you probably transferred out at a good time on balance.
My multiple is now 19, from a high of 34. Thankfully I don’t want to transfer, just keep on eye on the value out of interest.
OK, it would have been ideal if, after you invested, equities continued to grow and grow, but….that’s life in the markets.
Have been reading your blog for a several years now – especially since my boy was born in Feb it’s been great early morning reading during the night feeds. Just to say thank you for some great articles – I too will be paying the subscription when it happens. Although as a fully signed up millennial I do have one request of Monevator – App me baby! Having it on my phone would be a huge plus.
I like the simple retro design. The ‘John Lewis’ of money investing websites. Reliable, useful and a bit dull. Perfect!
Please keep RSS available – email is for interactive communication, not newsletters. Fortunately, there are some services that can turn newsletters back into RSS.
@ TI, TA, and everyone else at Monevator towers: Merry Xmas and have a great New Year! Thanks for all those informative articles that are so fun to read and the interesting weekend links.
Being someone with one of those low volatility portfolios you mentioned (the most conservative and largest subportfolio’s vol is 3% and the total portfolio’s vol is 6%), here is what I have observed:
* My total portfolio is now down by 4% from my all time peak at the end of August this year.
* The assets in my total portfolio that have had the best performance (since 2017) are Physical Gold, a Russell 2000 tracker, global small caps tracker, a global high dividends stocks tracker (proxy for large cap value), a whole world tracker, a developed world ex UK tracker, a Europe ex UK tracker.
* Not such a stellar performance from my Emerging Markets tracker, Japanese large cap tracker, and rest of Asia/Pacific tracker.
* Even more disappointing so far were my FTSE 250 tracker and my Japanese small caps tracker.
* But worst of all is a very small position I’ve got in a Long duration UK gilts tracker.
* I’m glad I was worrying about inflation coming back with a vengeance already in 2017 and built my allocation to have inflation protection (also against unexpected inflation through inflation linked bonds).
* I’m also glad I was already thinking about interest rates going up back in 2017 and set my bond allocation to low duration.
* For a long time now, my main worry has been when to start adding more duration to the bond portion of my portfolio. I have already started adding some (unfortunately I started doing so about a year before that infamous mini-budget) but it is still almost negligible. I can easily imagine the FED, BOE, and other central banks increasing rates too much and inflation turning into deflation and even into some long-lasting depression. Having enough duration in your bond allocation could offer great relief in this scenario.
* It seems to me that there is an awful lot of random events in everyday life that can be roughly first-approximated by Poissonian arrival-time processes: photons in laser beams, company defaults, things breaking in your house, accidents, job loss, etc. One of the most iconic features of Poissonian arrival-time statistics is its larger than random probably of bunching: waiting a long time at a bus stop when all of a sudden two or even three busses turn up at the same time, companies defaulting at the same time, more than one accident happening in quick succession, losing your job at the same time the stock market crashes, etc. So if you can do anything to reduce this natural tendency of bad things happening at the same time, you will have a better chance of dodging quite a bit of grief. In a portfolio you can do this by trying to diversify as much you can.
I would be interested in your paid for content especially if it involves a lot of active stuff. 2022 was a mixed year for me equities were down, water under the bridge. The Tories trying to blow up the economy was a big opportunity for me Up untill then I was cash and some high yield active funds (to juice the cash) . I availed of the opportunity and got my shopping trolley out. I now have a lumpy ladder going out 7 years consisting of gilts, index linked gilts and some nice yielding corporates. A silver lining in every cloud. Great site TI I don’t agree with everything on here but it’s a good read. Have a great Christmas.
@TBDW (#57):
Re: * My total portfolio is now down by 4% from my all time peak at the end of August this year.
Is your pot in drawdown or is it purely accumulation and could you indicate roughly what percentage was added / subtracted by way of withdrawals/new money?
Al Cam (#60) – Not in drawdown. No contributions since the end of July this year. So the 4% paper loss from the peak at the end of August is just from my asset allocation alone.
Actually looked at my account for the first time just now, down 13% for the year. I haven’t contributed for over a year so that’s just the swings of the market. Hoping to resume contributions next year, perhaps on better terms.
2022 has been annus horribilis for me. Sooner forgotten the better.
2023 sounds like a big one for the blog T I/A. All the best!
The past ten years of good returns, led mostly by low interest rates and QE, has led to hubris where a lot of investors believe they are more talented and richer than they are.
If you’re confident that doesn’t apply to you you’ve nothing to worry about. Maybe it was just an off year.
@TA & @TI, just wanted to add my voice to agree with everyone saying a huge thank you and well done for all your hard work. Monevator is easily one of the most insightful and thorough personal finance blogs on the internet. I always look forward to the weekend reading and the variety of links (inc. esp off topic ones too). With 2 small children I don’t have as much time to read as much as I’d like so your blog are a massive help.
I would also urge you to add a donate/contribute option, I know you said you don’t like accepting anything for nothing above but you’ve given so much value in your blogs. Interested in the membership option too.
Agree with others not much needs to change on the site, see Berkshire Hathaways website for inspiration! I would love for a Monevator all time top 10 articles or something like that and a summary page of the introductory series like you did with bonds recently and stocks, care etc. Would just help to refer back to those articles when the need arises.
Keep up the great work and all the best to you both for investing success in 2023…2022 has helpfully set a pretty low bar! ;D
Thanks for another year of quality posts, of maintaining some sanity during these turbulent times and making some sense of what’s happened in 2022.
I hope you don’t change too much of the design; the simple black type on white background looks a lot like ‘work’ whenever someone glances at at my laptop!
I’m on holiday as I type this so I don’t know how much my portfolio is down by YTD, am still hoping for a Santa’s Rally.
Merry Christmas to all at the Monevator camp and here’s to 2023!
Another superb year for monevator output. Have no idea how you do it! The energy levels are off the scale. Even the trolls are smart round here . I know I’ll have the book on my shelf before 23 is done and dusted… Can’t wait. Merry Xmas and happy new year to the team, commenters and readers alike
I’d also like to echo the huge thanks others have given. How you write such top quality articles as frequently as you do is absolutely baffling to me, it’s astounding that you continue to do so.
I’ve cut down the number of blogs and articles I read drastically over the last year or two yet monevator remains a weekly staple. It’s always the first place I point anyone asking for personal finance information. Especially as recently has been the case young and impressionable colleagues. To that end I’d agree with ekanomikAL, a top 10 posts or beginners guide easily found would be useful.
Oh and I’d also like to add that the simplicity of the website is a feature not something that’s holding it back.
Merry Christmas and happy new year. I look forward to reading in 2023 and beyond.
Not sure yet how our portfolio has performed, but VWRL is a good proxy. Down about 11% year to date, excluding dividends. We are mostly weighted according to the FTSE World, but have some “active bets”, with the US market, overweighting US REITs, US small caps and US low volatility. The low vol has done well compared with the US market for once, small caps and REITs not so well, so VWRL might be about right. I will work it out properly in early January.
11% down does not sound too bad, particulary after the previous decade when global equities grew well over 100%, but that 11% does not include our double digit inflation.
I am not concerned about the losses as these are to be expected from time to time and precisely why we have several years of cash deposits. We will draw an income from these until the market recovers. We will also be taking the dividends unless I can finally persuade my wife that it would be better to reinvest them!
Best wishes and thanks to @TI, @TA and the other contributors to this great site. This is the only financial web site I pay any attention to, apart from some of the links that @TI helpfully sorts out each week.
Thanks for all the comments everyone, really nice to receive on these short winter days. Apols if I’ve missed anyone above.
@Lesley J — Thanks, and thank you for coming back to us for years!
@JP — Indeed, I’ve sent the series to a couple of friends myself for their reference at a trying time.
@miner_2049er — You’re welcome, good luck with that transition.
@Jonathan B — Thanks. I think the most likely radical thing in a redesign would probably be that the home page would change to highlight more ‘stuff’ but the blog format (current style) would sit under its own URL (monevator.com/blog or similar) so people who want to read that way can set that as their home page. Plus we’d probably declutter or otherwise change the margin/sidebar. The big problem is that a new investor / reader can come to the site and be confronted with a very deep in the weeds article from @TA about shaving 7 bps off your TER by researching transaction costs — or even worse something active from me. That’s clearly not ideal when there’s so much basic stuff to get through first. As for ‘coming out’ it’s literally for the algo. Once we do it I’ll probably put myself about a bit because in for a penny etc, but it’s not a plan to become the next Mr Lewis! 😉
@Dorothy — That’s so great to hear, I literally screenshot and sent your comment to a friend who is always telling me to think about this site when I’m feeling down about my (lack of) achievements over the years… Thank you for sharing.
@Long Time Lurker — Welcome!
@Calculus — Cheers, suspect you and I have had a similar sort of year from the look of your numbers/allocation there.
@FI-Firefighter — It’s amazing to hear we’re a part of people’s routines. I’ll remind myself of that when my eyes are next going square on a late Saturday afternoon from over reading 😉
@The Bonce — Thanks for the kind words and support, and great to hear we’ve made a difference. 🙂
@Bp — Cheers. And yes, sore but manageable sounds like an ok place to be in a bear market!
@Richard — Glad to hear that’s worked out for you. No plans to turn off RSS — I made sure it was preserved when we switched email provider — but I do wonder if the powers that be will somehow stop supporting it eventually. Sadly it’s a rare way of navigating content these days.
@Brod — Cheers, merry Christmas to you to!
@cc86 — Wow, that’s a special moment to be sharing with you haha. Thanks for the nice words, too.
@Oskar — Hah, as a John Lewis fan I’ll certainly take that. It is pretty timeless (by definition, as I got it how I liked it then never changed it… 😉 )
@Pikolo — No plans to turn off RSS so for the foreseeable you won’t need to do that.
@Tom Baker Dr Who — Cheers. Seems like your portfolio is doing exactly what you’d want… hopefully next year you’ll have some different losers as well as winners and you’ll know you cracked it. 😉 Anyone would take your returns this year! The challenge for you will be (assuming you don’t chop and change, I mean tactically allocate) what to do when the market is up 25% and you’re up 5% in a year or two. 🙂 Neither way right or wrong, taste and time horizons!
@CJ — Cheers! It’ll probably be in part me writing the sort of articles I used to write 10 years ago but mostly stopped out of fear of misleading the index crowd (I fully believe most people should index) and boredom of endlessly caveating/justifying. We’ll see.
@Learner — Thanks, have a good one!
@BBlimp — I’ve read at least 20 investor (auto)biographies and read up on dozens more through the likes of More Money Than God and the William Green book above. Literally everyone has bad years! 🙂
@ekanomikAL — Very generous words indeed, thanks for that. Hopefully the membership option will be cheap enough that it can act that way. If only all the hundreds of thousands of people from previous years who’ve set up their trackers and forgotten about us could retrospectively chuck us a few quid… 😉
@Weenie — Cheers, Merry Christmas to you too!
@TheRhino — High praise indeed, thank you.
@Rosario — When I look at all we’ve written over the years it’s sort of baffling to me too. We’re well over 3 million words now. Cheers!
@Naeclue — Ah, you know your in the presence of passive investing purity when they have no idea how their portfolio is doing… 😉 Thanks for the best wishes, and for all your insightful comments over the year.
I’d just like to add my appreciation. I look forward to the Weekend reading section every week. I am always impressed with the quality of the articles. This site has helped me immensely over the last four or five years. I’d be up for a paywall type thing by the way.
Regular reader – not so regular poster – sorry! I guess a mark of my passive approach – but not my respect for the majority of content and most comments (always a few exceptions). Portfolio down – exact amount unknown – with two and a half years to go, don’t need to worry – it’ll comeback eventually. Linkers been the key contributor – but only a couple of years of monies in bonds at this stage as we build cash buffer. So just doing what the name suggests…. 2023 let’s go!
Echo what Naeclue says, I’m not sure really where I am in my portfolio as I don’t track too closely and I continue to add. Certainly down.
Whilst I agree the performance of bonds has been exceptional (ly bad :)) a 15% fall in VWRL doesn’t feel much to get excited about. Given the CAPE of the US (makes up 60% of VWRL) is still heavily elevated the risk of further global equity falls next year seems significant. As ever I’ve not a clue though so plough on regardless.
UK equities continue to look cheap (for a reason?!) and the FTSE 250 is tempting me and at least nominally bonds have a good shot at showing a decent return next year although the forecast is for a negative real return given inflation predictions.
I was lucky enough to borrow a large sum at <1% fixed for 5 years, which I've ploughed into short dated gilts that's offsetting some of the portfolio decline this year.
Reading the links is always enlightening.
I read the article on semi-conductors and think the world is more interconnected than we realise and in ways and levels of complexity that none of us can hope to fully understand….except for the troll's 🙂 – Investing passively in the index can help hedge that lack of understanding
the 52 snippets article is also great – makes you realise that although the media publish the doom and gloom articles and in the UK things have and are going to become worse (e.g. if you are elderly and wondering if an ambulance will come if you have a fall today, my sympathies) but the world marches on and not at a linear rate. We cannot hope to understand this and again holding the global index can act as a hedge here.
Ditto the article around the middle class is dead.
Feels more and more (and I reluctantly say this) that the challenges to our issues are more global in nature and nation states picking each other off is more of a zero sum game…..albeit that's probably what we'll try and do.
Personally I am looking around now at overseas opportunities to assess whether they'll offer a better quality of life than here – may or may not happen. For many people that's not an option and they'll just have to deal with what's coming – reality though is it's much worse in many other places.
Save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist to quote a better writer than I.
Agggghhhhh!! Nooooo! Please don’t go down the paywall route – it’ll mean the readership reach of your paywalled articles will shrink 95+% and you risk triggering a secular decline in readership (your current readers will either subscribe or stop using the site, but very few additional new readers will subscribe to another paywalled site).
This has happened to many newspaper sites over the years.
Also I’m sure many of your pages are helpful to both rich and poor investors, some of whom can’t afford the paywall.
If you do want revenue (which is perfectly reasonable!) then why not go down the routes of (i) having a voluntary membership account (the “lichess” approach), (ii) explore a patreon or similar setup (no shame in this)! or (iii) look more seriously into an affiliate link set up (which I suspect will be far more profitable than a paywall anyway).
If you MUST have a paywall then bleh! At least have a metered paywall or similar so that newbies can see a few pages so they know what they’d be coughing up for.
Good luck either way! You deserve to generate more revenue from the site, that’s for sure!
@Gizzard — Cheers!
@KeepOnKeepingOn — As Dory says, Just Keep Swimming 😉
@SeekingFire — Thanks for all your extensive comments over the year. 🙂 The S&P was down nearly 25% at the max point from memory, which from memory might just make the top 10 since WW2. So yes it could get worse, but plenty historic. Throw in the bond decline and this is probably amongst the worst single year for wealth destruction in nominal terms for US-exposed (so global tracker players too, ex-FX) since WW2. (Some year in the 1970s probably worse inflation adjusted, though just a hunch). It’s fine if you’re not too ruffled — good for you! 🙂 — but I wouldn’t dismiss the magnitude of this slamming, however much we can rationalize it as rational etc.
@JimBob — Most likely @TA will do a member article a month and so will I. So two a month out of eight (25%) pay-walled, or two out of 12 (17%) if you count Weekend Reading.
Plus all 2000+ articles on the site so far are planned to stay freely accessible, at least to begin with.
But we’ll have to suck it and see. Some people didn’t like the advertising when we ramped it up but at least in 2021 it was a sensible income. That’s been clobbered in 2022 though for various reasons (see ad stock share prices…) and as I say affiliate isn’t going to work unless we start really ramping stuff, which presents its own problems. (For example, our recent Plum review included affiliate links, and it had achieved exactly one sale in a fortnight, earning a grand total of £5).
There’s little doubt the value to income ratio is wildly out of whack here, but it’s not even so much the principle — it’s that I can’t keep subsidizing the site forever unfortunately (when costing in my time/focus etc).
With a few hundred members paying a small but meaningful subscription, the economics improve considerable and the good thing about membership is it is 100% aligned with reader interest, so it’s very appealing. The downside is obviously less readers, but at some point we have to slightly tilt towards readers who can help us make this site happen.
p.s. I just checked and that’s £5 all-time earned from the Plum review. Now you see why affiliate-focused sites either (a) go super heavy on the promotion or (b) have extremely high traffic.
@TI
A question, if I may? You write:
‘I’m well behind my benchmarks this year. And it’s not like they’re looking very healthy, either.’
Can I ask what benchmarks you use? From your writings on the way you invest (US growth stocks mainly, as I understand it) I would guess that you should measure against the NASDAQ, with it’s attendant volatility?
It would be interesting if you could share (unitised) performance of your portfolio. In a similar way that we see updates from the ‘slow and steady’ portfolio. I know you’re admirably fastidious about directing readers towards a passive approach but it would be interesting to see how you have over/under performed over the years.
Perhaps something for behind a paywall.
@Hague — I benchmark against a variety of indices. From memory my US exposure has never been much above market weight (vs a global tracker) though that isn’t saying much given market weight grew to about 60%! I’m invariably 20-40% in UK stocks. Prior to really getting stuck into growth (about five years ago) I was probably 80%+ in UK stocks most of the time.
Where I differ is sector weight (most of my US exposure has indeed been in tech) so there may have been a case for benchmarking against Nasdaq at points. However as a private investor I think people can go overboard re: benchmark selection. I’m not selling a fund promising exposure to X and to say my allocations drift would be putting it mildly (lurch more like). I consider this a feature not a bug of my investing style, but professionally it would look (outside of ‘go anywhere’ hedge funds) like massive style drift. My benchmarks are partly to stop myself deluding myself (long-term) but also to give me an idea of what’s working / what I’m missing (short-term).
Over the long-term the world tracker is a plenty mighty enough opponent! 😉 Somebody like Lars would say that a Nasdaq shouldn’t outperform, in as much as if it does it will become the S&P 500 anyway (which is kind of what happened over the past decade).
But anyway, I will consider what exactly I share behind the paywall and it is likely to evolve over time. I’m wary of going down the full return reveal route though, as it implies all sorts of things that I don’t want to imply. (I’m not selling a promise of outperformance etc. It’ll be more like a diary of my adventures in active investing, which I was once happy to write about on Monevator but as our audience has grown and it’s become clear to me over the years how ill-suited most people are even to thinking about / assessing active investing let alone doing it I’ve not wanted to tempt hundreds of thousands of people astray. But talking about it to a couple of hundred fellow enthusiasts who’ve signed up to that is a different matter. 🙂 )
Also if I did start revealing all my returns etc for various reasons I’d charge a lot more, which isn’t my intention currently.
TI- thanks for the reply. Makes sense.
I’m basically passive but but tinker around a bit with weights and a bit of passive active stock picking.
I think it makes sense to benchmark against the single fund that you would use if you were forced to go purely passive. For me that’s VLS 80.
One more to the chorus of thanks to Team Monevator – brilliant site, brilliant writing. Thank you. And Happy Christmas!
Just to add my thanks to TI and TA. I started investing in Sept 2020 after years of knowing I wanted a passive approach but never having the knowledge/confidence to start – which this site gave me.
Am now Lifestrategy and chill with monthly £CAs.
I will buy the book and likely sign up to a paid & gated section as a way of giving something back and continuing to learn. As there seems to be a few of us passive types from the comments suggesting that approach, perhaps there could be a “community” section as well as an “active” section in some way, either deliberately split off with a slightly different pricing structure or just a click away from each other with a flat tariff?
I would add that anyone who does sign up will need to remain conscious that they are participating in an internet ‘bubble’. As the years pass by, it is easy IMO for some communities to adopt the views of a few strong personalities and form a consensus – whether evidence based or otherwise. The modding in the comments here is benevolent – which is a positive for me. Iconoclasts / diversity of views can be helpful even when annoying.
Thanks to all the great commenters.
Merry Christmas to Monevator – and all who sail in her.
I know it’s truly Christmas when the eldest of my offspring’s annual gift of the Investment Trusts Handbook arrives, piping hot off the press. The 2023 edition came by courier half an hour ago – that’s my enjoyable holiday wallow sorted.
Please add my thanks to you TI, and TA and others, for the all-year-round gift of Monevator.
@TI, If you do go down the subscription / Patreon route, take a page from some creators I follow:
– early access to articles instead of completely paywalling them; the long form articles for example could be incubated there and released when you’re happy with the final form
– “enriched” content eg if you’re doing more reader/commenter submissions, that stuff could live inside the wall, casual readers can continue to comment outside
– book giveaways / promos / merch – probably a bridge too far for this blog, but a I’ve seen it done tastefully and not devolve into US style self promotion.
+1 for the end of year thanks and confirmation I personally look forward to Weekend Reading as much as the Saturday paper. Most weeks my wife asks me what I’m doing on my phone and my stock response is “Reading my Financial blogs” to which she rolls her eyes and I remind her this is how we retire early as knowledge is power right?
Hope everyone else enjoys the break – we earned it!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802
UK Govt wants the over 50s back in employment (which I assume is a politer way of saying paying more taxes!)
@all – Thanks for the latest comments and again, merry Christmas!
«by September Bloomberg was estimating the carnage of the combined crash in equities and bonds had wiped out $36 trillion in wealth.»
Actually not of “wealth” but of *redistributed purchasing power*.
Suppose there are two people, both with income of £50k, one with zero assets, and the other with £500k of assets: then the first can consume over their lifetime 50k times number of years of work, let’s say 40, for total of £2m, the other the same plus 500k, for a total of £2.5m that is the other can consume a large share of the production (56% rather than 44%) by selling their assets.
Now suppose that the £500k in assets change their valuation to £2m, the total production of things that can be purchased is the same, the total spending power of the first remains £2m, but the total spending power of the second has become £4m, so the first will only be able to consume 33% of the total, and the latter 66%, that is the real living standards of the second will have improved from 1.27 times of the first to 2 times, purely by redistribution of of purchasing power.
Of course for investors improving their living standards by producing more output or by redistributing more purchasing power from others is pretty much the same.
Actually for many investors improving their living standards by redistributing them from other is far more preferable, for example because:
* It means that the others, those who produce output, have become relatively cheaper to employ, as carers, gardeners, maids, etc.
* It means that their living standards growth has been ecological, because increased production usually increases pollution, while redistribution of purchasing power means that those who benefit do so entirely thanks to a reduction in the consumption of others, thus reducing their environmental impact.
Coming late to this as I was on my first proper holiday since 2020…
But I wanted to add to others on here that are full of praise of the high quality content (critical, educational and entertaining) that you TI and TA have been putting out there for free for so long.
I‘ve definitely benefitted loads while increasing my net worth over the past 6 years to a level that allows me to reduce work to 3 days/week at the ripe old age of 36. Hence, I will be more than happy to support this site financially going forward. Another vote for keeping the website design clear and simple though! 😉
@TI, thank you for being so transparent. As a passive investor myself, it’s certainly not been nice seeing the auto-savings being eaten greedily by the market every month either… Let’s hope for better luck for both active and passive investors in 2023!
I occasionally check in here to see how things are going, I like the weekend roundups, but a lot is only of passing curiousity now as I’ve been a Vanguard Life strategy owner for several years now. (Dunno how it’s performing atm, I only log in once a year. I get monthly confirmation that the automatic purchases have gone through, so I know it’s still there).
That’s a shame re site revenue. A lot of personal finance bloggers (possibly US centric?) seem to make money promoting credit cards. I don’t think I’ve ever bought anything from one of your links (maybe a 99p Kindle book?) and definitely not via your ads, as
1. I don’t buy much
2. they are currently showing:
-A website “for over 60s users: beautiful women seeking older men”
-A Ford Ranger
-Gaming headset
I’m not the right demographic for these and none of them relate to anything I’ve searched for or would buy!
Not a great year for me as an investor (especially with government treasury bonds). Although, I’m hopeful for the new year.
@TI #27 That all sounds okay. I understand about Google. I’ve done enough of such things myself. A link to a bio page with the odd video etc means those of us who don’t want to look can not follow the breadcrumbs Google needs. That would be appreciated and the words based form wih the ability to speed read and get through a lot of content quickly is one of the best things about the site (often needed since I read every single comment since the gems saving me thousands are often random comments 60 or 70 comments in). PS. Maybe ZX will come back this year. I miss his contributions.
Thought I’d add a specific example. One of the regulars shared an off hand random anecdote about NICs2 on a blog post about something else. It was way down in the comments. I went off and did some investigating and as a result, my husband’s state pension increased by 10% a year and that difference meant we were able to do some changes which have made a big positive difference to both our health.
That’s the kind of difference this blog and the comments make and I’m sharing partly so you have ‘case studies’ and partly because the ability to crank through every post and so many comments every week is about layout and format. It’s not possible now with almost every blog because of the focus on images and looking pretty rather than function.
Also thank you for revisiting older posts and updating, hugely valuable.