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economics

The Bank of England governor is going to raise interest rates and put millions out of work… but it’s all in a good cause.

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Everything is worse when rates rise.

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High inflation can be murderous for equities and bond returns. But it’s more complicated than that.

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How to prepare for a recession

Note: This article on recession preparation has been updated in light of the COVID-19 virus pandemic. The coronavirus is upon the West. Stock markets are in free-fall. Almost all measures that can slow the virus down and save lives will hit economic activity. This challenge could persist until we see a vaccine or until as [...]

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A history of UK inflation

You might think that inflation is just something that happens, but in reality it’s a policy tool with specific uses, including a means of reducing the public debt.

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Roll up, roll up, for another widely-quoted measure of stock market valuation with more flaws than a cut-glass diamond.

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My Law of Crazy Big Numbers

The US is drowning in debt and is doomed? No it’s not, if you also consider it has assets. It’s just another example of my crazy law of big number distortion.

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It’s easy to be daunted by the vast debt numbers that seemingly threaten to overwhelm UK households, but remember we’ve got trillions in assets, too.

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Joseph Stiglitz says the economy is still in trouble after the financial crisis, and banks remain free to take excessive risks.

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Attention personal finance bloggers! Unemployment is a lagging indicator. It’s nothing personal. Deal with it!

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The UK economy will boom in 2010, as low interest rates and a weak pound continue to work their magic.

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Mervyn King blames globalisation for the credit crisis, but that hardly gets him or us off the hook.

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The record steepening of the US Treasury yield curve suggests stock markets could still be good value, and I agree.

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What is GDP?

GDP is a measure of the overall economic output within a country’s borders over a particular time.

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The Armchair Economist

Don’t smirk: Settling down with a good book on investment can be oddly soothing. As the light dawns over your financial blackspots, panic is replaced by calm. Before long you’re scanning the Financial Times with aplomb, and even reading the small print. (Well, not all the time: I’m currently enjoying Harry Potter and the Deathly [...]

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