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Weekend reading: Saving versus investing

Weekend reading: Saving versus investing post image

What caught my eye this week.

Now and then an investing writer will take aim at a staple of the genre – all those articles proclaiming the ‘miracle’ of compound interest, which detail how Precocious Pete who starts saving at 20 will trounce Tardy Tarquin who doesn’t get going until 40.

Nonsense, the doubters say. Pete hasn’t got a bean to spare, and Tarquin is rolling in it. Compound interest won’t do much for either of them (apparently). Instead it’s all about savings.

It’s basically shock jock blogging. Slaying the sacred cow to the awed gasps of onlookers.

And too bad if those onlookers get splattered in blood.

Okay, so there’s some truth in what these iconoclastic articles – which at best champion saving over investing, and at worst throw in the towel – say.

If you have £1,000 and you compound it by 10%, you still only have £1,100. Nobody is retiring on that.

In contrast nearly all 20-year olds reading Monevator can find £100 down the back of the sofa.

Ergo, like a complication-free hookup, compound interest is a myth that will do little for you until you’re too old to be bothered with it.

So forget about it! Save more when you (hopefully) earn a lot more in your 50s. Go to the beach instead.

I paraphrase but that’s the gist.

Them versus us

I’ve noticed these articles tend to be written by three kinds of people:

  • Young people with little yet in the way of assets who wonder where’s their snowball?
  • Older people who stumble into income or assets in later life, which transforms their finances.
  • (Usually much) older people who never saved enough to retire early, and seem cross about it.

Notably not on the list are people who did start saving in their 20s. Who saw their snowball. And who now tell you compound interest can do a lot of heavy lifting.

People like me!

I was a regular saver from my teens. I’ve never earned six-figures, and most years didn’t trouble the higher-tax bracket (albeit later thanks to pension contributions). I mostly lived in London, which is expensive.

On the other hand I didn’t have kids, a car, or a drug habit.

And by the time I hit my 40s, my portfolio’s average annual return – the compound interest bit – was more or less equal to my earnings, net of tax.

Undoubtedly I made sacrifices to get there. Maybe I was too frugal. There are reasons why what seemed to me a generously-provisioned life would cause others to chafe. I’m a good enough (active) investor, which also helped.

But none of that disproves the impact of compound interest.

Roll the calendar another ten years and even despite a horrible 2022 – for my portfolio, my earnings, and my mortgage rate – I’m still (touch wood) set fair.

Savings played a big part in this journey. But I’ve never earned enough to be set without compound interest helping out too.

For sure I’m glad the books I stumbled upon in my 20s hit me over the head with a graph that went up and to the right, thanks to compound interest.

Rather than one that told me not to bother – not until I’d climbed over enough rats to get high enough up the greasy pole to stick at it and save in my 50s, 60s, and who knows maybe into my 70s.

Saving versus interest versus time

In my view savings and investing – and fitting your budget to suit your goals – are all important.

Doh, you say. (Unless you’re drafting your anti-compound interest post as we speak?)

Elsewhere ever-reliable Nick Maggiulli tackled this savings/investing duality in a novel way this week, with what he calls the ‘Wealth Savings Rate’.

It’s a way of seeing how your pot will grow (double) through adding new money via savings, as well as through compound interest.

Early on your Wealth Savings Rate is high. New money moves the dial materially.

But later, a whole year of extra savings might amount to one or two percent of your portfolio’s value. It’s the compounding that’s motoring you forward. By then you can run the numbers on leaving work if you want to.

Nick shows how long it will take to double your money under different saving and return scenarios:

It’s a cool lens he’s come up with, and one I can’t remember looking through this clearly before. Check out the full post on Nick’s blog, Of Dollars and Data.

And do keep saving and investing if you want to be financially independent sooner rather than later!

Have a great weekend.

From Monevator

How quickly do equities and bonds bounce back after a bad year? – Monevator

UK dividend tax explained – Monevator

From the archive-ator: Status anxiety – Monevator

News

Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view click through to read the article. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing to sites you visit a lot.

Energy Price Guarantee expected to be extended in April – BBC

Chip giant Arm to list in New York in latest blow to London – CNBC

Pensions dashboard hit with further delays – AltFi

Northern Ireland Brexit deal: at-a-glance – BBC

What is the new Northern Ireland deal? [Video]Sky News

Oops! Sunak makes the case for our EU membership in selling new deal [Video]Via Twitter

UK government made £2.4bn from ‘mortgage prisoners’ claims Martin Lewis – Guardian

Since Brexit, foreign interest in owning UK property has cooled – Klement on Investing

Products and services

Were sub-4% mortgage rates a flash in the pan? – This Is Money

Seven first-time buyer schemes still available after Help to Buy closes – Which

Vanguard to close UK financial planning arm – FT Adviser

Open an account with InvestEngine via our link and get £25 when you invest at least £100 – and an additional £100 if you invest at least £10,000 into an ISA before 2 May (T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – InvestEngine

Get an interest rate of up to 7% on your cash savings – Guardian

Is your credit card statement as clear as it should be? – Which

Open a SIPP with Interactive Investor and pay no SIPP fee for six months. Terms apply – Interactive Investor

Meet the smart meter addicts – This Is Money

How to save money on books – Be Clever With Your Cash

Homes for sale in foodie hot spots, in pictures – Guardian

Comment and opinion

Why companies are fleeing London’s stock market [Search result] FT

Do stocks always outperform bonds eventually? – Verdad

The world’s most common forecasting mistake – Klement on Investing

“How did I mess up? I’ve reached 60 with more money than I need to retire”Humble Dollar

One blogger’s returns from 20 years in residential London property… – FireVLondon

…though rising rates have now sent the UK property market into reverse – Guardian

Frugal or miserly? – Humble Dollar

Keeping investing fees low matters – Dividend Growth Investor

FIRE, Fat FIRE, & Me – FAT’s Substack

‘Generational wealth’ needs a rebrand – This Is The Top

Defending share buybacks mini-special

Buffett on buybacks – Roger Lowenstein

Stop demonizing stock buybacks – The Atlantic via MSN

Naughty corner: Active antics

Why regret and good investing don’t mix – Intrinsic Investing

Neil Woodford’s epic rise and fall [Podcast] A Long Time In Finance

How you could [have] become an ISA millionaire via investment trusts – This Is Money

Diving into Warren Buffett’s latest letter – Rational Walk and Fully Invested

US risk-free bills yield more than a 60/40 for first time in 20+ years – Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance

Kindle book bargains

Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder by Nassim Taleb – £1.99 on Kindle

Bank of Dave by Dave Fishwick – £0.99 on Kindle

Never Go Broke by Lee Boyce and Jesse McClure – £0.99 on Kindle

Green Living Made Easy: Hacks to Save Time and Money by Nancy Birtwhistle – £0.99 on Kindle

Environmental factors

CO2 emissions may be starting to plateau, says IEA – Guardian

Why China keeps building coal power plants – Semafor

Reuters tracked ‘recycled trainers’ to an Indonesian flea market – Reuters

How heat from an Amazon data centre is warming Dublin’s buildings – Reasons to be Cheerful

Greencoat UK Wind full-year results – DIY Investor UK

Off our beat

Do zero interest rates, AI, the gig economy, and FIRE weave a new future? – Not Boring

The unaware snoop – Seth’s Blog

This man went to Disneyland every day for eight years – Guardian

How the Wirecard fraud unraveled [Very long and detailed]The New Yorker

It’s not case closed on the Covid lab-leak theory – Slate

Ukraine’s Drone Academy is in session – Politico

The tech workers exiled from Europe’s last dictatorship – Rest of World

The luckier you are, the nicer you should be – Morgan Housel

Happiness is a warm coffee – The Atlantic via MSN

And finally…

“Over the course of an investing life, stuff is going to happen – both good and bad – that no one saw coming. Instead of playing the guessing game, focus on the opportunities in front of you. And there are always, in all markets, many opportunities. Yes, always!”
– Chris Mayer, 100 Baggers

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{ 32 comments… add one }
  • 1 Jim brown March 4, 2023, 2:28 pm

    I never start saving into a pension until I was aged 36. Fast forward 6 years, I have a 6 figure pension. Killing it now by savings 44% (will have to reduce this when my mortgage comes up for renewal this year ) of my salary into pension via salary sacrifice. Baring long term illness or disability and a divorce or some unforseen financial disaster, I am on target to retire aged 55 as long as I keep my current job.

    You can start late like my self but you need to put a lot in in those later years.

  • 2 Raj March 4, 2023, 4:11 pm

    What is your current mortgage rate investor?

  • 3 Gentleman's Family Finances March 4, 2023, 6:06 pm

    One thing you neglect to mention is that Tarquin may at the age of 40 benefit from the bequeathed benefit of several generations of compounding privilege.
    Pete doesn’t stand a chance.

  • 4 The Investor March 4, 2023, 9:22 pm

    @Raj — I’ll be writing about the saga in a week or two. Don’t want to spoil the (not very exciting I know) surprise. 😉

  • 5 Seeking Fire March 4, 2023, 11:01 pm

    The only issue I ever have with these type of charts is the authors who conveniently forget that £1m in 30 years time will be worth much less than today and therefore talk about stocks compounding up by 9 – 10% annually when the real return is much less due to inflation. Otherwise, yup, save super hard when you are early, ease off the pedal in later years and all being well compounding will by then be doing much of the heavy lifting. It is for me at any rate – need to be aware that p/e expansion is not compounding though – it’s the earnings growth that compounds the stock value – p/e expansion just pulls future returns into the present.

    Talking about inflation, I’ve always been sceptical about the BoE 2024 forecast of inflation circa 2 – 3% and it’s looking more and more like inflation is going to be sticky whether it’s the situation in Ukraine or pay rises at home – govt seems to be wilting / pret 3 pay rises this year. This has the potential to hammer the real value of your portfolio….

    I likewise read the Sunak video in disbelief (given he’s ostensibly a Brexiteer…yeah right) and didn’t know whether to laugh or cry. He forgot to mention though that the EU is the third largest economy in the world 🙂 Reflecting on it further, he’s not stupid and I wonder if his messaging wasn’t actually to the people in NI – it was actually to the rest of the UK. It seems clearer and clearer that post the next election the UK will rebuild economic ties with the EU – not as good as we had before as we won’t have any influence in setting the rules but less economically harmful than now. It’s the quickest lever to increase economic growth.

    There’s a good reason why some companies don’t want to list, the ever increasing myriad of rules that listed companies need to comply with, the corporate governance focus on diversity, esg etc etc – all very important issues but often they are at the exclusion to economic fundamentals. I have seen this from first hand experience working with PLC boards who find it incredibly frustrating to see fund managers corporate governance arms voting against the re-appointment of a board director often in direct conflict to the PM whose managing the position.

    I can’t really figure out whether house prices will fall or not having called it wrong for much of the last couple of decades. It’s logical that with swap rates rising again, it should be an increasing brake on prices but equally rents are up a lot and everyone needs a roof over their head.

  • 6 ermine March 5, 2023, 12:14 am

    > I’m a good enough (active) investor, which also helped.

    Bollocks. You are an outlier, sir. Which is why you are writing the premier UK PF blog 😉 Accepting that you didn’t trouble the higher-rate tax bracket, then your better returns will compound faster and I could believe your case might work. But at the usual 5% real return CI roughly doubles yer average punter’s stash in 30 years, (triples it in 40, which is not FI/RE). Worth having but not transformational, and the lift is less if they experience notable career progression unless that all happens in their 20s (there is reason to suspect this happens earlier nowadays for high-fliers than it did in the past)

    I am one of those compound-interest cynical gits. I got it in for the concept firstly because a doubling of capital is great but not trasformation, and because the inverted image that you are sunk if you don’t start in your 20s would have robbed me of hope when I discovered I needed to retire early in my late forties if I had believe the shibboleth. I would be stacking shelves at Tesco now if I had taken that at face value.

    I don’t clearly spot myself in your taxonomy of refuseniks, though there’s an argument that I saw more career progression later in my working life than is now the norm, which weakens the value of CI, I earned over three times in real terms on my last day than what I earned in my first real job, four times allowing for the company pension.

    How do I know you are an outlier? I mimicked some of your activities in the earlier days when it was easier to read between the lines and the site was more active. They lifted my performance far more than my index holdings do now. With some degree of pain I came to the conclusion that I could not originate ideas anywhere near the same level, but I can assure you that passive indexing with VWRL is pedestrian in comparison 😉

    So no. Compound interest didn’t help me retire early. about a decade after I started it does enable me to live higher on the hog than I had envisaged and to assist people and causes I care about as well.

    But I charge your example with sample bias. I can’t replicate your returns though I think I can do a little bit better than straight indexing, though as time passes I am not sure trying to chase the difference is how I want to spend my time, I have enough. An outlier will believe in CI more than mere mortals because … drum roll … their real annual return rate will be above average and will compound faster. Absolutle good luck and props to you but seriously, you are not John Smith on the Clapham omnibus.

    It’s easy enough for people to compute the results of compound interest with your calulator, top right. Take the defaults but start with now’t, which is how most people start their working life. A FI/RE aspirant will have a working life of 30 years or less.

    Now factor in the hits early on in working life – buying a house, children, all take their toll in the first 10 years. The theory’s great, the practice, not so much.

  • 7 mr_jetlag March 5, 2023, 12:30 am

    looks like my comment didn’t post earlier, but I agree with @ermine, and there’s been recent research about the concept of the “lifecycle model” that backs us up – that constant (absolute) expenditure throughout working life is preferable to constant savings rates (either income or wealth based). I think links are blocked for me but have a Google of the term in in Journal of Retirement.

    Compound interest is a useful tool to motivate new savers but less useful to hit your FIRE number. Anecdotally, everyone I know who is FI has had consistently high income, or liquidity events (company stock, inheritance, that kind of thing).

    Of course people aren’t robots and hedonic adaption is real, so in practical terms having a savings habit from day one is probably good regardless.

  • 8 G March 5, 2023, 3:51 am

    I would say habits compound better than money. A deferred gratification habit leads to a frugal habit likely leads to a good saving habit, be less likely to suffer from hedonic adaptation and likely means you will try avoid debt, and perhaps eventually discover investing as part of the mix whether active or passive and so on.

    I would recommend the Peter Attia podcast about from last week about Die with Zero to any aspiring young frugalista though. There are some things best enjoyed in your 20s, 30s etc that 60, 70, 80 somethings will not be able to enjoy at all/in the same way (plus you have a lifetime of memories to look back upon) – and unless you get really unlucky/f it up, you will get richer over time anyhow. That doesn’t mean you should go YOLO to the max when younger though, but it’s food for thought.

  • 9 Al Cam March 5, 2023, 9:57 am

    @mr_jetlag:
    Did you mean: The Life-Cycle Model Implies that Most Young People Should Not Save for Retirement by Scott, at al, 2022?
    Re post not showing up – something similar happened to me a week or so ago – which at the time I put down to finger trouble.

  • 10 r March 5, 2023, 10:14 am

    The way I think about this is that it all matters.
    It’s not just compounding, not just the savings rate, not just your skill in the stock market.
    It’s compounding AND the savings rate AND absence of errors in investment AND returns in the market during your investment period (either due to luck or to your own skills).
    We intuitively understand this when it comes to life, a happy and healthy life is the product of making sure you have good connections with friends and family AND making sure you are moving enough AND eat the good-for-you stuff AND eat less of the wrong stuff. All of these things compound and multiply AND be lucky enough to live in the right country, at the right time. If you rely on just one of these, your life will be pretty loop-sided.
    Same with investing, people who have outstanding results are the ones that are helped by compound interest and who have a great savings rate and who are lucky to avoid the many pitfalls of investing and who have a bit of talent and who are not for example, unlucky enough to have lived and invested in Ukraine circa February 2022. Each of these can help you out in your investment or FIRE journey. None of them are likely to work in isolation.

  • 11 xxd09 March 5, 2023, 10:59 am

    Obviously no one answer
    Being born at the right time in the right place etc etc ie luck is a/the major factor ?
    I did a couple of major helpful frugal things-bought all my wife’s past added years of her teacher’s pension just as she went back to work after 10 years with kids and before we got used to two incomes again-she has a full pension
    Inheritances from both grandparents went immediately into savings -SIPPs -irretrievable till retirement (and ISAs) in spite of siren songs re holidays,bigger house etc
    The stockmarket run over the last 30-40 years also helped immensely-that pesky luck again!
    The investor has to concentrate on items under his immediate control ie reduce costs of investing as much as possible,save as much as you reasonably can ,concentrate on doing the day job well and live frugally
    I learnt early on that I could never pick share winners so left the stockmarket alone to do its own thing investing via index funds
    Probably the safest route still for the average amateur investor
    xxd09

  • 12 Tom-Baker Dr Who March 5, 2023, 11:52 am

    Mathematically, it’s really simple: compounding becomes important when the linear approximation breaks down and the nonlinear terms can no longer be neglected. In investment, this can happen when your typical yearly contribution becomes comparable to the typical compounding growth of your portfolio.

    I created a chart ages ago where I plot against time the current investment growth in pounds using the current long-term annualised return measured for my total portfolio. This is compared to two critical thresholds: the actual take home pay (after taxes) minus pension contributions and the actual take home pay plus pension contributions. When you cross the lower threshold, you can consider yourself sort of financially independent, if your spending is not likely to increase from your current level of spending. When you cross the second threshold, your portfolio is making more money for you than your job.

    I’ve been between these two thresholds for some time. Then about 4 years ago, I crossed the second threshold and have been above it ever since.

  • 13 Getting Minted March 5, 2023, 1:07 pm

    Savings gave me about 40% of my FIRE stash but investment growth gave me about 60%. Of course without making those savings and investing them there would have been no growth. Starting early gave me a foundation of habits connected to earning, spending, saving and investing that equipped me for a 28 year journey. In cash terms 83% of the investment growth came in the last 5 years of the journey as markets recovered after the 2008 crash. If you were a late starter that was a good time to start, if you were an early starter like me it was a good time to stay on course.

  • 14 Steve B March 5, 2023, 1:40 pm

    Have to admit I didn’t see the problem with the Reuters article findings on an environmental level. Surely re-use is even better than gimmicky recycling as almost zero energy and time is spent on achieving the avoidance of waste and removal of demand for newly made items?

    I felt like it just shined a light on the need for a halo effect from actions for some people and the obsession with grand projects rather than simple improvements.

    Little bit like the Wind/Solar mania in UK politics – looking good is more important than ensuring productive outputs compared to the costs, at least in the short to mid term as you can’t avoid the blowback forever.

  • 15 Onedrew March 5, 2023, 2:05 pm

    My poor brain is struggling with the maths here. If a nominal return of 5% pa takes a bit under 14.5 years to double the original amount, does not the same apply to a real return of 5%? I fear this may be a stupid question, so I’m hoping for a bit of sympathy here.

  • 16 Onedrew March 5, 2023, 2:15 pm

    Sorry, by all means delete my comment, I think I was seeing a contradiction thar doesn’t after reading ermine’s slightly intemperate response. Apologies.

  • 17 Fatbritabroad March 5, 2023, 2:24 pm

    Very interesting table and in terms of planning it does help frame where you might need to invest to get to the figures you need in certain pots.

    I’ve always prioritised my pension and am currently maxing contributions to this as a 100k earner. . However this only represents around 11% of the capital value. The knowledge that cutting that back to 3% would only add 2 years to the doubling time makes me think I’d now be better off reducing and ploughing into partners pension which is very very light on funds. I’m only 42 . Am I reading the table correctly?

  • 18 mr_jetlag March 5, 2023, 2:38 pm

    @Al Cam: yes that’s the one. The authors make some assumptions around the availability of welfare and state tax policies, and I’m not sure I fully buy into their conclusions, but it’s a pretty fascinating take nonetheless.

    Glad to know I’m not the only one with phantom post syndrome!

  • 19 Al Cam March 5, 2023, 4:07 pm

    @mr_jetlag (#18):
    I could not locate a free of charge copy of the paper so I have just read the summary and some reviews of the paper. From these I gleaned that the paper is probably somewhat dependent on its US origins (in particular US social security replacement rates and how relatively generous they are for ‘lower earners’).
    So I am not at all sure if the papers conclusions can be generalised.
    Having said that, for ‘higher earners’ it appears to me that the authors may have latched onto over-saving as is discussed at the Humble Dollar “How did I mess up?” post linked above and in various other folks comments and by Die with Zero proponents.
    Nonetheless, I agree that the paper proposes some interesting ideas that are worthy of some further thoughts/discussion etc.

  • 20 Al Cam March 5, 2023, 4:15 pm

    @TBDW (#12):
    Is the chart you describe only valid during accumulation?

  • 21 The Investor March 5, 2023, 5:32 pm

    The trouble is we get spammed to death via both comments and the contact form so we have to turn sensitivity up high to keep moderation manageable. Links do get through though. Fewer is better for sure.

    I’m not seeing these posts that have vanished in my moderation queue so they’re being filtered at an earlier stage.

    Out and about this weekend so a deep dive will have to wait.

    Apologies regardless for any wasted typing! 🙂

  • 22 Al Cam March 5, 2023, 5:50 pm

    @TI (#21):
    Absolutely no need to apologise – perfectly understandable that you want to keep moderation manageable.

  • 23 Tom-Baker Dr Who March 5, 2023, 10:03 pm

    @Al Cam (#20) – Yes, I used that chart during accumulation to get an idea when compounding growth was becoming more important than my job. The point was for it to help me decide when I could consider stop working for money.

  • 24 mr_jetlag March 6, 2023, 12:43 am

    @TI thanks, I think the quality control is high here so don’t mind a bit of retyping.

    @Al Cam am also a recent Die With Zero convert so my biases are showing. The counterfactual where I didn’t save early and back-ended both earnings and savings is unfortunately unavailable, so I may be one of the “over-savers” you mentioned… However, given it’s allowed me to pursue FI with two kids I’m not unhappy given the alternative outcome would have been wage slavery in my 50s.

  • 25 Al Cam March 6, 2023, 8:54 am

    @TBDW (#23):
    Thanks.
    Got it.
    Presumably, some tweaks would be required to account for non-salary income?

  • 26 Mike March 6, 2023, 10:51 am

    Interesting debate all. I tend to sit on the “it all matters” side of the fence, with the particular twist for me being to try to expose yourself to points of view which run counter to your natural biases. I too am a recent reader of “Die with Zero” (weird how I had never heard of this book till a week ago and now I am seeing it being mentioned in a few places) and the main value in it for me was that both my wife and I are natural savers, and seeing the other side (ie what experiences might you be missing out on by saving as hard as possible) was certainly food for thought. For example it has got me thinking about gliding down my work hours over the next several years as I approach my “number” so that I get a bit of time to do more stuff while I am fit (40 y/o) and the kids are young, whilst still saving, just less. But this feels easier because I did the early compounding so my investment returns are probably already contributing an equal amount as my savings each year. All food for thought, and grateful for the post and the insightful commenters as ever.

  • 27 r March 6, 2023, 6:17 pm

    @Mike, my husband and I were quite close (maybe 2-3 years away) to FIRE, but 2 years ago we decided it would be better to just shift to working 3 days a week. We’re reaching 40 this year and I can tell you it has been one of our best decisions in life. We’ll probably work part time until we’re 45, but having a 4 day weekend every week has added so much value to our life, I really can’t recommend it enough. The savings rate is lower, but the life is better and we get to enjoy more of it while we’re still fit.

  • 28 London a long time ago March 6, 2023, 8:56 pm

    @mike and @r, agree with your sentiments. I take Wednesdays off now and it has been a game changer. I have so much more imaginative capacity.

    I also think building personalised accumulation and de-accumulation models is empowering. You can plot ‘memory-dividend’ spending or any abnormal spending and see the (limited) impact this has on your future safety net.

    The point of a few hard saving years is that later compounding ‘saves’ not you!

  • 29 David Williams March 6, 2023, 10:48 pm

    Re rates at which you will be doubling your money the “rule of 72” is useful. So for instance 6% return over 12 years or 8% over 9 years or 7.2% over 10 years will double your money in each case…

  • 30 weenie March 6, 2023, 11:30 pm

    I’m with you @Steve B – I consider it a terrible waste (of time, money and energy) that they would want to trash a perfectly good pair of trainers in order to jump on the recycling bandwagon and tick some box, declaring that they are ‘green’.

  • 31 Ian March 7, 2023, 7:04 am

    @steve B @weenie
    Yes… reuse better than recycling but the article says a large proportion is not fit to sell so ends up being landfilled/burnt.

  • 32 The Investor March 7, 2023, 3:12 pm

    Thanks for all the comments everyone! It was a very hectic weekend for me but I kept tabs on things (and moderating as mentioned). A few quick replies in the hope the recipients might check back:

    @Seeking Fire — I really thought inflation was turning (having been wrong about that for most of 2022 😐 ) but the latest figures from Europe are not promising. Given that the UK has structural inflation issues (cough Brexit cough) you could well be right. And yeah, the Sunak video is staggering. Keep in mind Brexit supporters watch that video and STILL argue there are economic benefits to Brexit. It really should never have been put to a vote unless/until our sovereignty really was threatened. (E.g. EU truly becomes the US, which there will clearly be a vote on at that point anyway). The damage to benefit ratio for us here is off the charts really. (The damage isn’t vast but it’s sizeable. But the benefits are almost entirely non-existent).

    @ermine — Well you’ve flattered me enough to assume you wrote it all including “bollocks” in a good nature. 😉 I’m genuinely glad as always that you benefited (and remember you did!) from this blog. Even before my dodgy 2022 I got some stuff wrong though of course, so you deserve to congratulate yourself on sorting the wheat from the chaffe. We are never going to agree on compound interest. I sit here just shy of 50 and need never work again if I’m fairly careful; if I keep saving at fairly historical rates it’s not inconceivable with a long life I could hit an eight-figure net worth despite only paying higher-rate tax a couple of times. The snowball is real.

    @G — It really was a great podcast, yes. He’s very compelling.

    @r @xx009 — I agree, it all matters. Investing without adding enough fuel via saving (at least to begin with) is pointless. Saving without investing is a slog. My criticism isn’t against “it all matters”. It’s against the notion that compounding is practically bunk. 🙂

    @TMDW — Maybe I could try to spend an industrious afternoon formally modeling that, but yes that matches my intuition. Still, timing is difficult. I dialed back on paid work in mid-2021 because my portfolio had roared, I fancied more free time, I could be picky and still (I thought) keep most of my income, and inflation and rates looked fairly well anchored. A year later and everything had changed. With a portfolio twice as big versus its ‘crossover point’ (sounds an ordeal to get there, but really only 4-7 years extra compounding) most problems go away, assuming no wars or revolution.

    @Getting Minted — It’s always a good time to stay the course. 😉

    @Steve B @weenie @others — I think personally the issue with these re-use/recycling initiatives is that there has to be transparency about what’s going on, and missions need to be stuck to as systems get even more integrated. A tightly-coupled re-use / recycle / net zero economy isn’t going to work if various links in the chain freestyle it. (See also carbon capture etc)

    @FBA — I can’t give any sort of personal advice. But speaking personally, I would always fund my own allowances before funding a partner’s. (This is probably why I am single… 😉 )

    @Al Cam @Mr Jetlag — Thanks for understanding. Email is the worst. There’s probably one real email to every 10-20 spam ones now (and these are often propagated by the comment form, which I am loathe to turn off but maybe I should. It has some anti-spam stuff so these are real people in spam farms spamming me.)

    @Mike — Sounds like you’re in a similar position to me. The kids have a term for it nowadays; CoastFIRE. I should probably write about it given I am accidentally doing it.

    @LondonALTA — If you think Wednesdays off now are good, you should have seen them before the pandemic. No queues, as far as a work-from-homer out for a lunchtime shop could see. 😉

    @all — Thanks for the other comments, see you next weekend! 🙂

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