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Weekend Reading: Smarter spam

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What caught my eye this week.

Working at the end of the age of publishing words has given me a lead on the post-LLM era.

I saw early on how ChatGPT had mined the web for everything ever written – well-enough to spit out answers about anything. And as a writer I had more incentive than most to panic.

It was also clear that Google search would be in trouble – and with it the pipes that had kept independent publishing alive on the web for decades.

My worries soon came to pass. People increasingly now get their knowledge direct from chatbots – whether Google or others. Those who wrote the articles the bots were trained on are withering on the vine.

Another thing I’ve wondered about is when AI spam will overwhelm the Monevator comments. Already on platforms like X, swathes of comments are written by robots.

We have protections in place. But I don’t know how long they will be practical when facing spam like this:

Such spam started appearing in the past month or so. It addresses me or my co-blogger accurately. It references the article.

Only the booby-trap at the end confirms its ill-intentions.

Check mate

You may say there’s something sloppy about this text. (Not to mention that it reads like @TA’s mum had a hand in it…)

Agreed, but remember you’re only have to sanity check one comment here.

I have to parse several hundred spam comments every day as a double-check. Both on spam that gets through our filters or is held for moderation, and also real comments that are incorrectly marked as spam. This is after software has already flagged the obvious offenders.

It’s burdensome, and the reason why I had to close comments on posts over three years old. To keep it vaguely manageable.

Spam comments like the one above stand out because they are still rare. But I imagine they will soon be the norm. (Well, presuming the economics of spamming still works if spammers are somehow paying for AI compute?)

I also expect bots to get clever enough to hide their intentions by posing as real readers, before finally inserting their spam links once they’re trusted.

Incidentally, we can see that’s a spammy link in my example. But if a reader posts a URL to data elsewhere about interest rates, say, it’s not so easy for software.

That’s why comments with links are already often held in moderation, especially from new commenters.

King sacrifice

Long story short: one day only logged-in Monevator members may be able to post comments. (I’m presuming the spammers won’t pay for the privilege!)

I’d be happy for commenting to be another perk for those who kindly support our efforts. It would make general moderation far easier, too.

Really, everyone who comments regularly on Monevator should already become a member. It costs much less than a High Street coffee a month. Even cheaper with annual membership!

With member-only commenting I know we’d lose some good comments, sadly. Although on the flip-side I suspect most discussions would be even more civil than we’re lucky enough to enjoy today.

The real downside would be fencing out non-regulars who bring one-off insights to a discussion. For example, a professional bond trader who arrives here via Google and educates us with a comment on an article about long-dated gilts.

That sort of thing is very valuable. I’m loathe to lose it. So for now the battle against spam continues!

Have a great weekend.

[continue reading…]

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Checking in on private companies and crowdfunded investments [Members]

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Forget 2022 – everything is awesome again! Sure, US politics may be a dumpster fire toasty enough to have Edward Gibbon warming up a new introduction to The Decline and Fall from beyond the grave. But you can’t argue with markets hitting all-time highs.

Or can you?

This article can be read by selected Monevator members. Please see our membership plans and consider joining! Already a member? Sign in here.
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The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q3 2025

The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q3 2025 post image

Well now, we’ve had quite a run since the shock of Trump’s tariffs scattered our forces back in April.

Monevator’s Slow & Steady passive portfolio has rebounded almost 13% since the aftermath of Liberal With The Truth Liberation Day. I hope yours has done at least as well.

Overall, the portfolio has grown 6% so far in 2025. Which feels odd given the 24/7 bombardment of pessimism that’s churning up my online world. It’s getting to the point where I’m turning to real life for an escape.

Anyway, here are the latest numbers fresh from the manna-sphere:

The Slow & Steady is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000. An extra £1,310 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and find all the previous passive portfolio posts in the Monevator vaults. Last quarter’s instalment can be found here. Subtract about 3% from the portfolio’s annualised performance figure to estimate the real return after inflation.

Ignoring the third-quarter’s thrivers and divers for a moment, the thing that catches my eye is the portfolio has broken through six figures in total value. We’re clocking in at £100,713 on the table above.

That’s quite something for a portfolio launched in 2011 with £3,000. It’s been run passively ever since on an inflation-adjusted £250 per month in cash contributions.1

(Just to stress again, this is a model portfolio. The attached monetary values are entirely notional. But I used the same kind of passive investing strategy to grow my own wealth if you’re concerned about skin in the game.)

Growing modest savings into such a sum seemed unimaginable to a younger me. I had zero interest in the stock market and couldn’t stop splurging away everything I earned.

I thought investing was the preserve of the rich and highly informed financial experts. Ha!

Think again

But as millions of investors have already discovered – and our model portfolio is just the latest to demonstrate – it’s entirely possible to achieve good results by sticking to a passive plan:

The dark green line shows the portfolio’s return in nominal terms. The more important lower (lighter) inflation-adjusted line represents the Monevator model portfolio’s real annualised return of 4%.

We’re bang on the historical average for a 60/40 portfolio. Granted, that’s not spectacular – but this portfolio isn’t called Slow and Steady for nothing.

Of course, my inner critic is scornful. He casts brickbats like:

“You fool! What if you’d invested less in bonds?”

And:

“Why didn’t you foresee the AI revolution and invest 100% in Nvidia in 1999?”

But I look again at the chart above and I’m reminded of Charley Ellis’ brilliant description of investing as a loser’s game. By which he meant you win primarily by avoiding egregious mistakes.

In other words, you come through by playing the percentages and limiting your unforced errors. As opposed to trying to smash it with spectacular winners.

Ellis’ metaphorical inspiration was amateur tennis. If you’d seen me play tennis you’d understand why I’m happy with average.

New transactions

Every quarter we lob £1,310 over the investing net, hoping the rally keeps going. The cash is split between our seven funds, according to our predetermined asset allocation.

We rebalance using Larry Swedroe’s 5/25 rule. That hasn’t been activated this quarter, so the trades play out as follows:

Emerging market equities

iShares Emerging Markets Equity Index Fund D – OCF 0.2%

Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642

New purchase: £104.80

Buy 44.19 units @ £2.37

Target allocation: 8%

Global property

iShares Environment & Low Carbon Tilt Real Estate Index Fund – OCF 0.17%

Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71

New purchase: £65.50

Buy 27.68 units @ £2.37

Target allocation: 5%

Developed world ex-UK equities

Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund – OCF 0.14%

Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73

New purchase: £484.70

Buy 0.625 units @ £775.82

Target allocation: 37%

UK equity

Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust – OCF 0.06%

Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63

New purchase: £65.50

Buy 0.204 units @ £320.79

Target allocation: 5%

Global small cap equities

Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund – OCF 0.29%

Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05

New purchase: £65.50

Buy 0.135 units @ £484.60

Target allocation: 5%

UK gilts

Vanguard UK Government Bond Index – OCF 0.12%

Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374

New purchase: £301.30

Buy 2.275 units @ £132.43

Target allocation: 23%

Global inflation-linked bonds

Royal London Short Duration Global Index-Linked Fund – OCF 0.27%

Fund identifier: GB00BD050F05

New purchase: £222.70

Buy 203.193 units @ £1.096

Target allocation: 17%

New investment contribution = £1,310

Trading cost = £0

Average portfolio OCF = 0.17%

User manual

Disclosure: Links to platforms may be affiliate links, where we may earn a commission. This article is not personal financial advice. When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. With commission-free brokers other fees may apply. See terms and fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Take a look at our broker comparison table for your best investment account options.

InvestEngine is currently cheapest if you’re happy to invest only in ETFs. Or learn more about choosing the cheapest stocks and shares ISA for your situation.

If this seems too complicated, check out our best multi-asset fund picks. These include all-in-one diversified portfolios such as the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds.

Interested in monitoring your own portfolio or using the Slow & Steady spreadsheet for yourself? Our piece on portfolio tracking shows you how.

You might also enjoy a refresher on why we think most people are best choosing passive vs active investing.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

  1. Today’s £1310 quarterly investment is the inflation-adjusted equivalent of £750 per quarter in 2011. []
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Weekend reading: Livin’ la vida loca

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What caught my eye this week.

I am definitely not saying that the massive megacap tech deals of the past fortnight will for sure end badly. Let alone that such deals must mark the top of this bull market.

Credit with me some learning!

After more than two decades of meddling in the markets – and nearly as long making public pronouncements on this blog and elsewhere – it’d be a sackable offence for me not to have learned a bit of humility along the way.

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can believe what you’re reading on social media, as Keynes almost said.

Markets also have a way of turning today’s ‘irrationality’ into tomorrow’s ‘crucial staging point that any fool could have identified’ if you wait long enough for the proper perspective.

So yes, Nvidia investing $100bn in its major client OpenAI – or Oracle leveraging up to build out the data centre capacity required to fulfil the staggering $300bn compute deal it signed with OpenAI last week, which in turn inflated Oracle’s share price – may not be as Ponzi-ish as they look.

But these mind-bendingly big deals at the very least represent a gear shift.

Hitherto the hyperscalers (Meta, Google, Amazon et al) were just reinvesting their vast torrents of cashflow into building more data centres for paying customers. It was business as usual, albeit on steroids.

However this new phase is more self-referential. Something akin to a tech oligarch blood pact, where they are going all-in on the AI revolution and they’ll sink or swim together.

What’s My Age Again?

Sadly, I’m too old not to remember the Dotcom boom and bust at a time like this.

Not just in terms of the high valuations. (I’m thinking here of the likes of Palantir and OpenAI rather than the Magnificent Seven tech giants, most of which still don’t seem truly crazily-priced given their sales growth and margins.)

No, also in the way that Dotcom-era start-ups floated on an ocean of ultimately VC-funded advertising that paid the bills of a bunch of other start-ups, which ultimately took half of them down when somebody thought to ask “how many people are actually clicking on these things?” and pulled the plug when they got a straight answer.

I mean, doesn’t nVidia investing in OpenAI so that OpenAI can get chips from nVidia have the whiff of that to you?

Even so, you might imagine that none of this matters for your portfolio. But what if I quoted JP Morgan informing us this week that:

AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth, and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.

This also seems like a pertinent point to remind you that US equities account for 60-70% or more of global tracker funds.

Artificial Intelligence taking all the jobs or becoming super-intelligent is one thing.

But this AI boom being exposed as productivity-sapping margin-crushing hype on a nation-state-GDP level would also cause us investors plenty of pain.

Wild Wild West

Accordingly, I’ve been worried and underweight the US at least 18 months. And boy hasn’t it made keeping within spitting distance of the global market’s return difficult.

Because once more with feeling:

AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth, and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.

On the other hand, Wall Street’s obsession with big tech and AI has left lots of other stuff looking good value, especially outside of the US. And it’s fun to hunt around for it.

The activist manager Saba, for example, is awaiting approval for a new ETF it’s launching that will enable value-minded investors to buy a basket of UK investment trusts – specifically because so many of them are still going cheap.

Again, the parallels are obvious.

Nobody wanted to own Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway at the peak of the Dotcom Bubble. Then in the years after the bubble bust, value soared.

The set-up looks so easy, right? Yeah, too easy. We could be in 1996, say, not 1999. More importantly we’re actually in 2025, and stock market history rhymes rather than repeats.

So all I’m saying for sure is that if this is a bubble and if it does burst, then you’ll hear a lot about nVidia putting $100bn into OpenAI in every future account of it.

No Scrubs

Oh, and incidentally people keep saying the hyperscalers are spending tens of billions ‘building out the AI infrastructure’ as if they were laying down concrete.

But anyone who has ever bought a new nVidia graphics card to play the latest PC games will have found themselves confronted with jerky frame rates six months later.

These things go stale faster than you can say “whatever happened to the Metaverse?”

So if they are building out the AI infrastructure, they’re going to have to build it out again…

Have a great weekend.

[continue reading…]

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