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A retirement income from ‘smart’ ETFs

A retirement income from ‘smart’ ETFs post image

Many months ago, I promised to look at the practicalities of using income-seeking ETFs to generate an income in retirement.

It seemed sensible to split the post into two parts:

  • A second post – this present one – looking at so-called Smart Beta income-seeking ETFs.

That said, as I’ve remarked before I’m not necessarily a fan of ‘smart’ income-seeking ETFs. Countless investors had their fingers burned investing in the popular iShares’ FTSE UK Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: IUKD) ten years ago, having mistakenly seen it as a lower-cost and less-risky way of getting an income from higher-yielding shares.

I’ve also revised the intention of this post. As I was writing it, I increasingly saw less point in trying to construct an example portfolio, as I did with those purely passive ETFs.

There are so many choices to make – many of them very personal – and the chosen Smart Beta methodology plays a critical role. My own selection would arguably be arbitrary compared to yours.

Rear view mirror

Smart ETFs aren’t smart in the sense that a real-life manager of a fund or investment trust might be. There’s no judgement at work, or years of investment experience.

Instead, a theoretical index is constructed containing shares that meet specified criteria – criteria that for the purposes of this post would supposedly correlate with high, robust, and reliable levels of income.

By definition, then, these smart income approaches necessarily look backwards. They extrapolate into the future a set of dividend-paying characteristics that have been observed in the past.

And the past, as the financial services industry is duty bound to remind us, is not a reliable indication of what may happen in the future.

The consistent growth approach

A number of ETF providers offer ETFs that aim to track S&P’s family of Dividend Aristocrat indices. These contain shares with a history of increasing their dividend payments for 25 consecutive years or more, subject to a (large-ish) minimum market capitalisation. The final decision on inclusion is made by a committee.

On the face of things, this is a reasonable approach. Not least because a consistently growing dividend may speak to substantial free cash flow, which is always a good thing.

But as an income investor, I know all too well that there is no guarantee that a company that has grown its dividend for 25 years or more will continue to do so. Or indeed, that it will continue to pay dividends at all.

Consider Tesco, for instance. The grocery giant abruptly cut its dividend by 75% in August 2014, and abandoned paying it altogether in January 2015 — and it, too, had that golden 25 year reputation.

More recently, America’s gigantic GE—a member of the Dividend Aristocrat index for 35 years—was booted out after incoming chief executive John Flannery cut the dividend. Pfizer offended similarly.

Perhaps more fundamentally, the Dividend Aristocrat approach excludes any consideration of yield. As an income investor, I want consistency, but I also want income.

Granted, the Dividend Aristocrat approach has been shown to deliver superior overall returns, but at the end of the day, we’re talking income here.

The higher-yielding approach

An alternative approach goes gung-ho for income, building indices of higher-yielding shares.

Vanguard’s High Dividend Yield ETF, for instance, tracks the FTSE Russell’s matching FTSE All-World High Dividend Yield Index. MSCI also has its own High Dividend Yield Index, while Dow Jones maintains a series of Select Dividend indices.

iShares ETFs often (but not exclusively) use the Select Dividend series, while providers such as WisdomTree and Amundi often use the MCSI indices.

STOXX and Société Générale maintain their own flavours, the latter under the Quality Income index. These are less widely available than the majors – and when ETF market capitalisation has a bearing on charges, that can be a disadvantage.

  • To see the wide range of dividend-touting ETFs available, check out this list from the JustETF tool. We only cover a taster of what’s out there in this article. Be sure to research exactly what you’re buying if you choose to invest!

Methodologies vary. FTSE Russell’s approach is to capture the highest-yielding 50% of the market, ranked by forecast yield, for instance. Others are pickier: STOXX wants to see positive dividend growth over five years, and a dividend payment in four of the last five years, while Société Générale adds nine ‘quality factors’ to the mix, including profitability and solvency.

So how to pick an ETF constructed on ‘higher yielding’ basis? My suggestion would be to start with the index methodology, and choose the one with which you are most comfortable. Which comes closest to your own stock-picking approach, or seems the most sensible?

Don’t be surprised if that leads to some awkward decisions. The iShares STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 ETF (Ticker: ISPA), for instance, seems only to be available on the German bourse with some brokers, while hunting for Lyxor’s SG Global Quality Income ETF at your broker may take you to Paris (although it is available on the LSE under the ticker SGQP). From a ‘smart’ perspective, both of these seem to me to be ‘smarter’ than ETFs based (say) on the more simplistic FTSE Russell approach.

But if you look to buy on costs – as many people do with ETFs – then Vanguard’s FTSE Russell-based ETFs are undeniably considerably cheaper than Lyxor’s SG Global Quality Income and iShares’ STOXX offerings.

What would I do?

On the one hand, you have fairly sophisticated products based around Société Générale’s Quality Income index methodology, and on the other you have the broad simplification of the FTSE Russell approach. Both have their merits.

Which is best? There isn’t a simple answer.

On the whole, I remain to be convinced of the worth of smart income-focused ETFs – compared to say income investment trusts.

None of these Smart Beta products feature in my own portfolios, nor are likely to.

But if I were to seek to build a retirement income from such a set, I’d want to spread my risks by opting for multiple providers, and multiple methodologies. Nor would I buy solely on cost – diversification has a price, and it’s probably one worth paying.

Why the emphasis on diversification? Simple: to try to minimise the downsides of ETF algorithms blowing up, à la IUKD.

Finally, I know that I’ve been away from the site for many, many months. Sorry about that: sometimes, real life gets in the way.

But I know – from the nudges I’ve had from The Investor – that at least a few of you have missed me. It’s good to be back.

You can catch up on all Greybeard’s previous posts about deaccumulation and retirement.

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Weekend reading: All you can eat Buffett

Weekend reading logo

What caught my eye this week.

Back when this blog was more about my personal adventures in investing than about what you should do with your money, I used to write a lot about Warren Buffett.

How Buffett really got rich, how his family appreciated the benefits of cash, and of course the obligatory How to Be Like Buffett post.

The Internet is full of people praising Buffett though. In contrast, ten years ago there was little about passive investing and index funds. And, ironically, even Buffett says you should use tracker funds.

So my co-blogger came on-board to write the manual on passive investing, my active investing escapades mostly took a backseat, and the rest is history. (Or rather, a website.)

However, like some South American tribe who ate 17th Century missionary food in hastily knocked-up churches by day but continued to worship vultures and rivers in the forest by night, I never myself converted to passive investing. (In fact I’ve gotten even more active over the years.)

All of which preamble is to set the scene for why I was so delighted when CNBC revealed its Warren Buffett archive last week.

The site collates tons of Buffett bumph from across the ages. But by far the jewel in the crown are full video recordings of 25 years of his Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings!

We Buffett fans didn’t even know these existed, let alone dreamed we’d one day be able to while away a Sunday afternoon watching many hours of a septuagenarian and an octogenarian discussing reinsurance premiums in the 1990s.

Think that sounds dull? Totally understandable, and good for you.

For a certain micro-sliver of readers though, this is like when The Phantom Menace was first announced. (But without the anti-climax of the actual movie, I stress.)

When you’ve got this much grainy video of two of the world’s greatest stock pickers holding forth, who needs sunshine?

[continue reading…]

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A press photograph of a Casper mattress

Let me say upfront that I probably wouldn’t be writing a post about the Casper mattress on my financial blog if Casper didn’t have an excellent affiliate scheme.

In short, if you buy a mattress from Casper via the links in this article, then you save £50 on the purchase price and they reward me with £50 in Amazon gift vouchers.

There, I said it. Talk about radical transparency, eh?

Don’t click away! Magazines are supported by advertising. Even Which? charges subscription fees. A blogger also has to eat.

Besides, I have plenty to say about this high-quality mattress – and some of it will be very useful if you’re unfamiliar with modern mattress shopping.

I bought the mattress when I had no other furniture in my brand new flat, and it was a godsend. I definitely recommend it.

Here’s why you should read my review before buying this or any other mattress.

Firstly and most importantly – if you do buy via the links in this article then you get £50 off the price of the mattress. So it’s a win-win for both of us.

Secondly, the Casper is the best mattress I’ve ever owned – and probably the best I’ve ever slept on (and I’ve slept in some pretty fancy hotels, especially with work).

Lights out, I zonk out, and I wake without a creak in my body. Perhaps it’s the new mattress smell wafting me away (we’ll get to that later) but I think it’s really the memory foam.

Thirdly, there are almost no reviews on the web from UK-based Casper mattress buyers. All the reviews are American. I live in London, so I thought I might be able to help British buyers make a decision.

Finally, there’s a 100-day money back trial when you buy from Casper. If you buy the mattress and you don’t like it, you can send it back. Hard to argue with a zero-risk proposition like that.

Here’s my in-depth guide as to why the Casper mattress is well worth considering.

What’s so special about the Casper mattress?

I’ll get to what the Casper is made of in a moment. Obviously that’s the most important thing when it comes to sleeping.

But the big difference between the Casper and the last mattress you bought is Casper comes delivered to your house in a box!

Now if you’re thinking how can that possibly work, I hear you. To say I was dubious when I first heard about how the mattress would be mailed to me would be an understatement.

However I spent literally a whole night Googling around and found everyone saying the same thing – the mattress-in-a-box method works, and it works well.

(In a moment I’ll share some photos I took as proof!)

The mattress comes shrink-wrapped in a tightly sealed package. Once you cut open the package and lay the mattress down, it finds its natural shape.

It’s quite uncanny. The mattress isn’t inflatable or anything like that. But it is made of several layers of memory foam. This enables it to quickly return to its proper dimensions.

Unboxing the Casper mattress

Very few people have documented unwrapping their shrink-wrapped mattress.

So here is a quick series of photos showing me unboxing my Casper mattress – you can scroll through them quickly if you don’t like photos:

Photo of a boxed Caspar mattress

The Caspar mattress comes in this neat (heavy!) box

The box was brought to my bedroom by a friendly delivery man.

Photo of a welcome note from Caspar

This little note is a nice Apple-ish touch.

A surprise message. Yes, it’s cheesy. Yes, it makes you feel good.

Photo of a Caspar mattress shrink wrapped

The mattress looks like a shrink-wrapped sleeping bag!

If you’re looking at your mattress at this point and thinking “really?” – I’ve been there brother.

Photo of Caspar instructions

Time to read the cute instruction leaflet…

In the instructions it looks a bit like the lady is flapping it like a sheet. Don’t be fooled, this mattress is too well-built and heavy for that. I just lifted the corners a few times to help it along, though there’s no instructions saying you even need to do that.

Photo of Caspar mattress unwrapping

The packaging is easily cut open, and you can then roll it out.

Freeing the mattress from its wrapper was probably the most fun part of the whole process.

Photo of initially rolled out Caspar mattress

The mattress initially looks a bit sorry for itself. Don’t panic!

I know… it’s hard to believe that you’re going to get a great night’s sleep from this… thing.

Photo of a Caspar mattress five minutes after unwrapping

Within just a few minutes it has already expanded to mattress proportions.

…but you turn your back and suddenly there’s a mattress. Incredible!

Photo of a Caspar mattress five minutes after unwrapping

Half an hour later, the Casper mattress shape is fully restored.

Excuse the clutter in the background. These photos were taken in my legitimate New Flat (TM), not at a glossy photo shoot!

You can get straight on to your new mattress if you want. (And you *will* want to.)

The whole unboxing is very simple. These photos and captions probably took you longer to scroll through than it took in reality.

However I have a couple of tips that you may want to read before you unwrap yours – should you decide to buy a Casper via my handy £50-off link I mentioned above.

But first, how is the mattress able to restore itself like that? What’s it made of?

Thanks for all the memory foam

I am not going to spend a lot of time pretending to be an expert on mattress manufacturing.

If you’re anything like me, you just care about: (1) Sleep quality and (2) Whether it’s worth the money?

However it’s worth knowing a few things about how the Casper is made, as this is what leads to the answers (1) “I sleep brilliantly” and (2) “Yes, I believe so.”

The key thing to know is that this is a memory foam mattress. That’s what makes it so comfortable.

However there’s more to a good mattress then simply shipping you a slab of foam.

The mattress needs to be breathable, supportive, and able to conduct heat away so that you don’t overheat in the night.

Casper does this via four layers of foam:

  • Top layer – A breathable ‘open cell’ foam layer enables you to sleep cool, and gives the mattress its bounce.
  • Second layer – A high-density layer that supports the pressure points of your body.
  • Transition layer – This layer apparently boosts the comfort factor by spreading the weight of your body (and any other body you happen to be in bed with…)
  • Support layer – The base layer supports the top layers, according to Casper. I think this is just code for “the mattress is not only 2-inches thick” to be honest. It’s the main body of the thing, and what makes the mattress a mattress.

I should also mention the entire mattress is wrapped in the stylish zipped cover that you can see in my photos.

This easily zips undone for removal, and Casper says the cover is easy to clean. (I haven’t tried to clean it – I’ve only had the mattress a couple of months, and I am not inclined to eating pizza in bed or other messy habits!)

For more information on the construction (you thrill-seeker) see Casper’s website.

Sleeping on the Casper mattress: Very comfortable indeed

Here’s the most important thing – the mattress is supremely lovely to sleep on.

I’ve tried to think of a way to tell you about it in words, and perhaps the best way is to explain how I keep failing to find them.

You see, I’ve been planning to finish this review for a week.

Every time I go to bed, I think to myself: “Pay attention! Then you can explain what it feels like to sleep on the Casper in that review you’re finishing up tomorrow.”

And then I wake up! I don’t even remember falling asleep. Bliss.

Obviously not every single night is a great sleep. There are days when I overdo the eating or drinking, or my girlfriend gets up in the night for toast or whatnot.

That’s never good for anyone’s sleep. The Casper is a mattress, not a general anesthetic.

But when I’m going to bed in a fit state, the mattress is like a time machine. I literally just wake up.

It’s that comfortable.

Talking of my girlfriend, the Casper is a great mattress if you share a bed. That’s because unlike some mattresses I’ve slept on, you don’t roll into each other.

You and your bumpy bits (shoulders, hips, and so on) sink slightly into the mattress. There they are supported by the foam.

However this sinking foam only ripples out a couple of inches from your body. It doesn’t reach the other person, which means they can sleep interrupted by your nocturnal movements.

Perhaps the same thing is possible with top-of-the-range spring mattresses that cost £1,000 or more. But in my experience, with springs there’s much more of a dip created by a body, and you can usually feel it as the other person moves.

With the Casper, you’re more like two islands in the same bed. Idyllic!

What about firmness?

Friends have asked me this – what with the Casper being quite new to the UK and them being curious about it (and its arrival in a box…)

It’s hard to answer exactly, because firmness is quite subjective.

I’d say it’s pretty firm. It’s certainly not hard, and it’s definitely not soft, even though your body does sink into the memory foam a little by design.

To me that’s the Goldilock’s scenario – just right! It’s supportive, without being squishy.

But be aware if you do like a rock hard or super-soft mattress (why?) then this might not be the mattress for you.

Of course with the 100-day free trial when you buy, you’ve got the reassurance of knowing that if the mattress does turn out to be too firm or soft for your tastes, Casper will collect it and give you your money back. Can’t ask for more than that.

For a second opinion, I asked my girlfriend for her review of the Casper mattress.

She messaged back:

For me the main thing I really enjoy is the lack of springs, because that’s where I can really feel the difference. The mattress in my flat is old and the springs have spread everywhere, which leads to a night’s sleep akin to being at sea.

I find the Casper firm but not hard – it feels supportive more than anything, although the memory foam does make nighttime a whole lot warmer!

So overall another fan, but let’s dwell on that ‘warmer’ comment. Because I’d say this is my girlfriend’s only complaint with the Casper mattress. She agrees it’s a very comfortable sleep, but she also says it’s sometimes toastier than she’d like compared to my old mattress, or her own bed back at her flat.

I simply don’t have this issue. I agree the Casper is warm, but to me it is snug and cozy warm.

So who is right? Partly it’s down to taste, but here are two further points for context.

Firstly, my new flat has just been completed and meets the highest building regulations. There are no drafts at all, and air only really gets circulated by the trickle vents built into the windows for that very purpose.

In addition there is underfloor heating throughout the flat. The (excessive) five thermostats situated around the flat confirm that unless you leave the backdoor open for half an hour in the middle of the night, the temperature rarely drops below 22-degrees.

In contrast, my girlfriend’s flat has terrible old-fashioned electric heaters. Brrr!

As for my old place, it was 150 years old and drafty. All my bedding came with me from there to the new flat. Arguably I need to get some lighter tog bedding!

Secondly, my girlfriend is one of those infuriating people who sleeps with the duvet wrapped around her nose and an extra share of blanket pulled over from my side of the bed, and who then sometimes says she’s hot.

Really? Maybe don’t wrap yourself up like a mummy?

“I can’t help it, I need all the blankets to get to sleep!” she replies.

As I say, your mileage may vary, especially if you’re rather more rationale about your sleep habits…

My only complaint: The initial ‘new’ smell

Like I said, I find the mattress perfectly warm and perfectly comfortable.

But it’s not quite perfect.

The one niggle in the ointment for me is the new plastic-y smell it comes with.

Now, as someone who has been buying a lot of new furniture lately, I’ve found this comes with everything – sofas, rugs, even tables and chairs.

It’s called ‘off-gassing’ by the professionals. The smell is actually various gasses from the manufacturing process (especially from glue and the like, but really from any artificial substance) being emitted.

Eventually this dies down, and it does too with the Casper.

But of course you don’t normally put your face a pillow-width away from a sofa or a rug for eight hours a night. That does make it more noticeable with a mattress.

The smell is by far at its worst for the first 72 hours. If you can, I suggest you unwrap the mattress in a spare room and open the windows and close the door for a few days. After it’s been aired for a while the smell is much less noticeable.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s perfectly possible to live with it. In fact lots of people seemingly don’t even notice the smell, judging by other Casper testimonies I read when researching buying a mattress.

And my girlfriend had to have the smell pointed out to her for her verdict. She wasn’t really bothered.

In contrast I do tend to be very sensitive to smells. Also as I’ve said my flat is pretty airtight, which probably didn’t help.

But in the interests of full transparency, I do want to flag up this smell as a slight downer. It goes away, but it would be better if it was never there.

The final verdict: Buy a Casper mattress

As is probably very clear, I recommend you get a Casper mattress and treat yourself to a wonderfully relaxing sleep.

Do it via my link and you’ll get £50 off the mattress, too. In addition I’ll be paid some Amazon credits for my trouble!

I’ve recommended the Casper to several friends, and a couple followed up on my suggestion. They are very happy with the mattress – one even wrote to me to say thanks, unprompted!

Recommending the Casper mattress is also a zero-risk proposition thanks to the 100-day money back guarantee. If you don’t like it, you can simply give it back for a full refund. If only all investments came with such great terms.

Buy a Casper and sleep easy. I’m very confident you won’t regret it.

Update: I’ve had the Casper for another two months since writing this review, and if anything I like it even more. I’ve bought a lot of new stuff for my flat. The Casper was among the least hassle to order, it beat my high expectations, and it was great value for money. Remember you get £50 off your own purchase via this affiliate link!

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Weekend reading: Yes, even brokers can fail you

Weekend reading: Yes, even brokers can fail you post image

What caught my eye this week.

Long-time Monevator readers all know you cannot avoid risk when investing. Indeed, I try to assume that any investment could – conceivably – fail me.

Does my maudlin mindset lead me to keep all my money in guns and ammo?

Not at all.

Firstly, a prepper arsenal will prove a lousy investment if there’s no societal breakdown / zombie invasion (though some exposure might still have been a good insurance policy, as discussed in a fun article below.)

All investments can fail me, remember? Heck, maybe my gun will jam.

More seriously, assuming failure is possible with everything I invest in or own helps keep me diversified across different holdings and asset classes.

You regularly hear horror stories of people putting all their life savings into some property scheme or ‘guaranteed’ bond or offshore opportunity.

Madness – even when such schemes are not outright scams.

You have been warned

Many of you will be nodding along here. But I’ve discovered one area where quite a few readers think I’m just too paranoid.

Which is that personally I would never run all my money with one fund manager, nor keep all my funds with one broker or platform.

To me, diversifying against the very unlikely case of major company incompetence or fraud is cheap and simple. Even for the strategically laziest passive investors, monitoring two accounts instead of one should only add 30 minutes or so to your annual workload.

Investor compensation under the FSCS is limited to just £50,000 – and that’s assuming you’re even covered.

And while I think the chances of losing money with a huge fund house or one of the biggest platforms is very small, the financial crisis taught me that just not having access to my money is scary.

I wouldn’t whistle contentedly while waiting weeks or months for all my worldly wealth to be recovered in full. I doubt you would, either.

People reply that their assets are legally ring-fenced, so they aren’t too bothered.

Of course I’m well aware of this. However things can and do go wrong, I reply – sounding like an Eeyore.

Well, in the past few months something has and is going wrong, with the demise of a small broker called Beaufort Securities.

As the FT reports [Search result]:

Accountancy firm PwC, which was appointed as administrator by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, has faced mounting criticism after it said last week that it could cost as much as £100m to return the cash and assets held by the company, currently valued at £550m, to its thousands of private investor clients.

Some 700 clients with larger portfolios — of more than £150,000 in cash and assets — are expected to bear much of the cost.

“In the absence of any other available resources . . . the overall costs of delivering [returns] to clients has to be shared appropriately by those to whom the assets belong,” said Russell Downs, a joint administrator and partner at PwC, on Wednesday, citing legislation introduced in the wake of the financial crisis.

Repeat: Ring-fenced client money is going to be taken and used, and clients will not get all their money back.

The long-time investor Lord Lee of Trafford has tabled a question in the House of Lords about the basis for PwC’s decision.

Lee told the FT:

“Everyone is of the view — including me — that client funds are ringfenced and protected, and no one can put their hands in and dip into them.”

But PwC has insisted there is a legal and practical case for using clients’ money in the wind-up process.

Repeat: You have been warned

No doubt we can have an informative discussion in the comments about exactly what happened here.

I’m only familiar with what I’ve read in the press, and am far from an expert on the law.

I also expect some will say it couldn’t happen with this or that big fund manager or the platform they frequent (although I’d argue some sophisticated passive investors who chase the lowest fees and express annoyance when anyone makes the case for a big and boring platform could actually be more likely to find themselves on a rickety outfit…)

That said, perhaps people will be more reticent to shout “Never!” now this has happened.

Besides, the specifics of this case aren’t the point. Next time the specifics will be different.

The big reminder is what is important for our purposes: Things fail.

Giant investment banks can’t fail until Lehman Brothers failed. Interest rate can’t go to zero until they did. Company pension schemes were safe until some immoral mogul stuck his fingers in the pot.

Order reigns until a time of crisis, when anything can happen.

Normally we’ll be fine. Virtually always we are.

But not always.

I wouldn’t put all my eggs in any single basket.

  • Are you a Beaufort client? Voices on Twitter are urging you to write to your MP.

[continue reading…]

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