I forgot to update the portfolio! I’ve been leaning so hard into my passive investing persona that I fell asleep at my spreadsheet and didn’t twig when the 1 July Q2 deadline sailed by.
The markets are a distant background rumble to me right now. Oil price up, oil price down. Another day, another prophecy of AI doom.
It’s not that I don’t care. It’s just that the question being asked, it cannot be answered.
The question? Always being some variant of, “What’s the next big thing?”
Answers on a postcard
Here’s the story of the year so far, told in straight lines:
Data from justETF. The chosen ETFs are proxies for the Slow & Steady portfolio’s holdings, plus gold and commodities.
Gold is the loser year-to-date, commodities the winner.
Meanwhile, previously unloved emerging markets and property are the cream of the equities crop.
Who had that marked on their card for 2026?
Here’s the story again, told in wobbly lines of uncertainty:
Gold (red line) hit a new high in early March before dropping 23%.
Buying opportunity or time to get out?
Commodities (grey line) looks like it’s commanded by the Grand Old Duke of York. The changeable duffer perpetually marching his hard assets up and down hills. You want some?
Emerging markets (blue line) have now beaten the MSCI World over the last three years. That’s a comeback worthy of the WWE, given how the new challengers had been roundly pummelled by the developed market champs for 15 years following the Credit Crunch.
Me? I’m happy to own it all and let the chips fall where they may.
Portfolio-o-vision
Here’s the portfolio holdings and long-term annualised returns since kick-off in 2011.
The Slow & Steady is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000. An extra £1,360 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and find all the previous passive portfolio posts in the Monevator vaults. Last quarter’s instalment can be found here.
All returns in this post are nominal GBP total returns unless otherwise stated. Subtract about 3% from the portfolio’s annualised performance figure to estimate the real return after inflation.
The full growth picture looks like this:
In real-terms, the portfolio is still 2.6% below its December 2021 peak. Another quarter or two of progress could push it to higher ground once more.
It has to be said though that we’re coming up for five years underwater since inflation spiralled. By contrast, recovery from the Global Financial Crisis took less than three years for a 60/40-type portfolio.
Unfortunately, trad 60/40 portfolios have a history of suffering like this during severe bouts of inflation. Consider adding some additional protection to yours.
New transactions
Every quarter we plough another £1,360 into the market’s black earth and hope we’ll harvest plenty of corn later. Our stake is split between our seven funds, according to our predetermined asset allocation.
We rebalance using Larry Swedroe’s 5/25 rule. That hasn’t been activated this quarter, so the trades play out as follows:
Emerging market equities
iShares Emerging Markets Equity Index Fund D – OCF 0.18%
Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642
New purchase: £108.80
Buy 40.8946 units @ £2.66
Global property
iShares Environment & Low Carbon Tilt Real Estate Index Fund – OCF 0.18%
Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71
New purchase: £68
Buy 25.5016 units @ £2.67
Developed world ex-UK equities
Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund – OCF 0.14%
Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73
New purchase: £503.20
Buy 0.5631 units @ £893.61
UK equity
Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust – OCF 0.06%
Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63
New purchase: £68
Buy 0.18 units @ £377.84
Global small cap equities
Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund – OCF 0.29%
Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05
New purchase: £68
Buy 0.1189 units @ £572
UK gilts
Vanguard UK Government Bond Index – OCF 0.12%
Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374
New purchase: £285.60
Buy 2.1189 units @ £134.79
Royal London Short Duration Global Index-Linked Fund – OCF 0.27%
Fund identifier: GB00BD050F05
New purchase: £258.40 + £118.92 dividend
Buy 343.9562 units @ £1.097
New investment contribution = £1,360
Trading cost = £0
Average portfolio OCF = 0.17%
User manual
Take a look at our broker comparison table for your best investment account options.
Or learn more about choosing the cheapest stocks and shares ISA for your situation.
You might also enjoy a refresher on why we think most people are best choosing passive vs active investing.
Take it steady,
The Accumulator
I was asked during the GFC what was going to happen. I said I don’t know. I don’t know why you think I would know. And supposing I did know I don’t know why you think I would tell you.
Now 70ish% equity 25%ish bonds and several months worth of cash.