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Weekend reading

Good reads from around the Web.

Always nice to see the rich and the powerful do something good with their money. And so nice to see Neil Woodford, the famed fund manager, leading the way on fee transparency.

The Woodford Funds blog says:

From 1 April, investment research costs are being paid by Woodford, rather than by the fund with no increase to the existing annual management fee.

We also commit to greater transparency on the total cost of investing, with all transaction costs to be disclosed monthly on our website.

[…]

The cost of transacting is wrapped up in the cost of buying or selling assets within a fund – they are an inevitable part of investing. All stock market investors, whether fund managers or DIY investors, face these costs, which come in the form of commission and, when buying shares, Stamp Duty.

From 1 April, one element of the cost of transacting – that of research costs – are being paid by Woodford, rather than by the fund.

Importantly, we are not increasing our fees to cover this additional cost.

Investors are, in effect therefore, getting a price cut, which will immediately benefit the future performance of the fund.

Of course, some say this is all a big PR move. That Woodford is doing this because with his huge and loyal following he can get away with it.

Well if it’s a PR move then it’s probably an expensive one.

As for his huge and loyal following, Woodford achieved that through several decades of outperformance in various market conditions and now at two different companies, which personally I am happy to take as evidence of a unicorn-rare ability to beat the market through skill – at least in the past.

Perhaps he could have instead taken his huge and loyal following for a ride, and charged higher than average fees – just like all those famed hedge fund managers do, with their 2% charges and 20% performance fees?

Woodford went the other way. Good for him, I say.

Saint or scandal?

Robin Powell at The Evidence-Based Investor isn’t so easily impressed:

Neil Woodford can afford the smartest spin doctors, and it shows.

Hardly a day goes by without a Woodford story (almost invariably positive) in the media.

The latest success for his PR machine came this weekend, with the announcement that the Woodford Equity Income fund will now absorb its own research costs, rather than charging them to investors.

This is, of course, good news for investors, and let us hope that other fund managers will follow Woodford’s lead.

But it needs to be kept in context.

That Woodford Investment Management, along with almost every other UK fund management company, was asking investors to pay its research bill in the first place is a scandal.

Personally, I’m not that bothered about investors being charged for research. Scandal, for me, is far too strong a word.

The whole argument for paying for active fund management is so flawed in the majority of cases – for the simple fact that they fail to beat the market – that if you do find a fund manager who can consistently take the market behind the bike shed for a drubbing – to outperform, after all fees – then let them keep the lights on however they see fit, I say.

Complaining that an active fund manager who, for instance, trailed the index for a decade – and cost you 2% a year in fees and charges in doing so – partly reimbursed themselves through a 0.02% research bill seems to me a bit like being bothered that the alien walkers in War of the Worlds stood on your front lawn on their way to obliterating your village.

Moreover, charges in financial services are like Wac-A-Mole. If a fund manager wants to – and believes it can – take some particular annual tithe from its customers, it will find some combination of fees they will pay. At least research is (theoretically) useful to an investor.

Of course, I understand the other side of the argument – that investors are clueless about all these fees, and that by unbundling and revealing them they will become less happy to pay them, and so will pay less.

But will they? The experience from the unbundling that came with RDR was that for many (including some passive investors, due to higher platform charges) the cost of investing actually rose.

Anyone who does a day’s research will discover the cheapest and best way for most people to invest is through index funds on low-cost platforms.

If they are not already discovering that – or they don’t care – then is a long list of bullet points on the back of a factsheet detailing every last bill paid by a fund really going to change their mind?

Will the average consumer even read it?

I have my doubts.

What’s it worth?

Partly I am playing Devil’s Advocate here. Clearly everyone at Monevator Towers thinks such information is better out than in, for those who do want it.

But to be honest I find it hard to get overly worked up about it.

There are other issues to consider, too, such as the average consumers’ limited understanding of what fund charges actually describe.

As one industry commentator puts it in the FT (search result):

“[Mr Woodford] has launched a modern asset management business, performance has been excellent and I know he has a low turnover style,” said Mr McDermott.

“Some funds will trade more and have higher costs — but it’s not necessarily a worse fund. It’s important to look at the alpha generated.”

“It’s not as straightforward as ‘this one costs 84 basis points, this one costs 120 basis points and I’m going to buy the cheaper’,” he added.

One of the most consistent (and opaque) hedge fund managers in the world, Renaissance Technologies, has achieved annualized returns of over 35% a year for 20 years.

It is a quantitative trading house that uses vast warehouses of data to find patterns or inefficiencies in the market. I don’t have numbers on its annual portfolio turnover, but it’s routinely described as a pioneering high frequency trader. I imagine they’re huge.

If Renaissance’s edge is partly expressed through churning its portfolio, then investors who’ve made a fortune from it would have been ill-served by dumping it after receiving their first monthly investment letter that quoted a scarily high annual turnover.

High turnover is ruinous to most active funds. It is costly. Renaissance and most of the handful of other market-beating exceptions will never be accessible to you or me. And the average active fund’s cost is just a tax on your investments.

All true. But it requires a lot more understanding to discover this and to realize what it means for your future strategy than can be communicated by a lengthening list of fees in the small print – incomprehensible to most.

The end of an era, anyway

What I’m saying is that high fees are high fees, however they’re sliced and diced.

What will do for active fund managers is the realisation that they’re very rarely worth the price on the menu – and that cheap tracker funds can take their place – rather than a micro-investigation into how they charge for their ingredients.

Bloomberg calls this the financial services industry’s “Napster Moment”:

Just as record companies in the early 2000s had to deal painfully with the digitization of music courtesy of Napster and Apple Inc.’s iTunes, many asset managers are now facing a similar situation as more investors make the switch from high-priced, actively managed mutual funds to passive, low-cost, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index funds.

When the dust settles in this sea change, the financial industry may be half of what it once was, simply because its revenues will be half of what they once were.

It is the low costs of passive funds and the huge underperformance of active funds that is driving this sea-change, not a detailed examination of how those high active costs come about.

Rhetorically speaking, if I found an active fund that I was certain would handily (and legally) beat the market – after all fees – for decades to come, it could bill me for strippers and Lamborghinis if it wanted to.

There’s nothing wrong with transparency – except perhaps its potential to confuse customers (which is a line that sounds awfully financial service-speaky, so I won’t push it further today!)

But for me it’s very much a skirmish on the sidelines in the wider war.

Reasonable minds can disagree, though.

My co-blogger I suspect thinks very differently. (He’s away at the moment so I can’t ask him). Robin Powell of the aforementioned Evidence-Based Investor does for sure.

In fact, Robin has even joined something called the Transparency Task Force. When it comes to its broader stated aim of exposing or publicizing the excess costs inherent in so much of the financial system, I can only wish it well.

[continue reading…]

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Innovative Finance ISAs delayed

Slow coach: The Innovative Finance ISA has been delayed

A new tax year brings with it all its usual thrills and spills for personal finance junkies:

  • Replenished annual ISA allowances to lock and load with your favourite asset allocation.
  • A reset capital gains tax allowance, to enable another round of helpful defusing for those with unsheltered gains.
  • Higher stamp duty rates for BTL purchasers. (Hurrah or boo, depending in most cases on whether you’re over 45…)
  • Slightly higher personal allowances for income, including the long-awaited 0% on the first £11,000.

And that’s just the mainstream stuff. The UK tax code is around 10 million words long, so expect lots of hidden twists and turns.

(And you thought Game of Thrones was a slog…)

What about the Innovative Finance ISA?

Conspicuously stuck on the starting grid however like a Force India with an engine problem is the Innovative Finance ISA.

Back in the March 2014 Budget, the chancellor announced that peer-to-peer lending was to become permitted within ISAs.

By the Summer 2015 Budget this still wasn’t possible, but we now had a name for the vehicle that would eventually make it so – the Innovative Finance ISA.

The relevant Budget text read:

2.77 Extending ISA eligibility

The government will introduce the Innovative Finance ISA, for loans arranged via a P2P platform, from 6 April 2016.

Well, here we are in April 2016, and it’s still not possible to shield income in an ISA with the mainstream peer-to-peer lenders, although a few tiddlers have got their products away.

RateSetter warned customers of delays on April 1st in an email:

There has been a fair amount of press coverage about the “Innovative Finance ISA” launching in the 2016/17 tax year and as you know we are preparing to launch a RateSetter ISA so that you can enjoy the same interest rates and protection you achieve on RateSetter but in a completely tax free wrapper.

It is testament to the government’s enthusiasm for our product that they created this third ISA specifically to accommodate peer-to-peer lending.

Before a peer-to-peer platform can offer its own ISA, it must first become fully authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and also it needs to comply with rules set out by HMRC.

As you may know, RateSetter, as well as other peer to peer platforms, are in advanced stages of obtaining full authorisation – we cannot confirm a date yet but can confirm that it is progressing well.

A few days later I heard the same thing from Zopa:

In September 2015, we submitted our application for full authorisation to the FCA and have been working closely with them to progress our application. We will only be able to offer the Innovative Finance ISA after we have gained full authorisation.

Given the volume of P2P platforms requesting authorisation and a number of recent legislation changes, the majority of P2P platforms, including Zopa, will not complete the process before April 6th.

We are working with the FCA to be fully approved and ready to launch ISAs in the next few months. We’ll let you know as soon as we have further news around the date of our ISA launch.

Subsequent press reporting does indeed suggest that none of the major peer-to-peer lenders has yet been given the go-ahead.

According to ThisIsMoney, as of April 1st there were 86 firms still awaiting authorisation. Eight had received authorisation, of which four had revealed the details of their products:

Abundance, which specialises in renewable and ethical peer-to-peer loans for social and environmental projects, will provide a wrapper that lenders can put new investments into. They will at first receive 2 per cent for six months in a holding account until October when money can then be invested and could earn between 6 per cent and 9 per cent depending on the projects backed.

Crowd2Fund lets businesses seek equity, loans or issue bonds of between £10,000 and £1million, offering investors average returns of 8.7 per cent.

Crowdstacker, which handpicks small businesses looking for finance, will also offer a wrapper-style product. It offers lenders rates up to 6.8 per cent.

Funding Tree helps provide loans of between £10,000 and £1million. It hasn’t given an indication of the rate or type of product it will offer but previous loans have offered rates up to 17 per cent.

I can’t help noticing an alphabetical gist to the firms that have won approval. It seems crazy to speculate that the FCA is still working through their list alphabetically, but, well, on this (tongue in cheek) evidence I wouldn’t hold my breath if you’re waiting on Zopa

Quite a few readers have asked for an article about Innovative Finance ISAs, and I know some were waiting on the vehicles before dipping a toe in the P2P water.

But given how this government seems to hold its focus group tests in public – only to alter or even reverse policy later – I’m going to hold off on saying more about Innovative Finance ISAs until they are fully out there in the wild.

True, from the emails above it seems pretty clear these new ISAs are coming – it appears to be just a matter of getting the paperwork done.

But I do wonder if there are any last minute hitches that might also be behind the delays. Let’s wait and see.

Stop or go?

The good news is that even after taking tax into account, the rates on offer at the likes of Zopa and RateSetter are much higher than you’ll get on cash – as of course you should demand, because the risks are much greater (and different) than with cash, too.

(Read my recent RateSetter article for a primer).

In particular, if you’ve already decided the risk/reward ratio is right for you, then I wouldn’t hang around waiting for the Innovative Finance ISA before picking up the £100 bonus that RateSetter is currently offering new customers1 – because who knows how long that bonus will last for, or how long the wait for the Innovative Finance ISA could be.

At least the new savings allowance should help shield your peer-to-peer income, depending on how much you’ve got saved in cash and other interest-paying assets outside of existing ISAs.

Beyond that it’s a case of watch this space.

  1. With a bonus paid to me, too, by the companies not by you, if you follow these links. []
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The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q1 2016

The portfolio is up 4.46% year to date.

January and February were a bit rough, eh? If you made the mistake of checking your portfolio during those dark days, you might well have seen its value plummet since last May.

The FTSE All-Share was down more than 15% since then, for example.

On the other hand, if you spent winter in financial hibernation and you’re only just waking up, then all is probably coming up daffodils – and the Slow & Steady portfolio too is within a few quid of making up all its lost ground.

The Slow & Steady portfolio is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000 and an extra £880 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, heavily tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and catch up on all the previous passive portfolio posts here.

Six months ago most of our asset classes were flashing red, with just our UK government bonds acting as our main shock absorbers.

Now though only emerging markets remain negative, and barely so.

Indeed emerging markets were the strongest performer of the last quarter – putting on an 8.8% growth spurt.

That’s delivered a nice bonus for the portfolio. We rebalanced into emerging markets last time around, with 45% of our quarterly contribution going into our worst performing asset class, funded by a sale of UK equities. And that then turned out to be the only fund that backslid over the last three months!

This isn’t us trying to be dice-rolling active investors and it’s not witchcraft. Nor is it sheer luck. It’s simply the kind of boost you can expect from following common sense rules without trying to be too clever.

It’s also interesting to note that our slug of global property has streaked ahead of our other equity holdings over the last year, demonstrating the wisdom of diversification.

Over the past year, our equity classes have performed as follows on a time-weighted basis:

  • Emerging markets -11.00%
  • Global property 2.87%
  • Developed world ex-UK 1.22%
  • UK All-share -4.91%
  • Global small cap -1.13%

Hardly a year to remember but ample evidence of divergence.

Here’s the portfolio latest in ultra-def spreadsheet-o-vision:

The portfolio is up 25% since purchase.

The portfolio hit the comeback trail in mid Feb to end the quarter 4.45% up.

That leaves us £4,879 to the good and growing at 7.71% on an annualised basis – or more like 5% when you knock off a bit for inflation. Very respectable.

Notice the strong role conventional UK government bonds continue to play in our portfolio. Their annualised return of 6.41% is superior to the 5.80% we’ve earned on UK equities so far.

It’s continuing testament to the first rule of asset allocation: the most important decision you make is your split between equities and bonds.

New transactions

Every quarter we dropkick another £880 between the market’s goalposts. Our cash is divided between our seven funds according to our asset allocation.

We use Larry Swedroe’s 5/25 rule to trigger rebalancing moves, but all’s quiet this quarter. We’re just topping up with new money as follows:

UK equity

Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust – OCF 0.08%
Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63

New purchase: £70.40
Buy 0.459 units @ £153.35

Target allocation: 8%

Developed world ex-UK equities

Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund – OCF 0.15%
Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73

New purchase: £334.40
Buy 1.431 units @ £233.61

Target allocation: 38%

Global small cap equities

Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund – OCF 0.38%
Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05

New purchase: £61.60
Buy 0.318 units @ £193.81

Target allocation: 7%

Emerging market equities

BlackRock Emerging Markets Equity Tracker Fund D – OCF 0.25%
Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642

New purchase: £88
Buy 81.784 units @ £1.08

Target allocation: 10%

Global property

BlackRock Global Property Securities Equity Tracker Fund D – OCF 0.23%
Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71

New purchase: £61.60
Buy 36.558 units @ £1.69

Target allocation: 7%

UK gilts

Vanguard UK Government Bond Index – OCF 0.15%
Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374

New purchase: £132
Buy 0.869 units @ £151.87

Target allocation: 15%

UK index-linked gilts

Vanguard UK Inflation-Linked Gilt Index Fund – OCF 0.15%
Fund identifier: GB00B45Q9038

New purchase: £132
Buy 0.847 units @ £155.82

Target allocation: 15%

New investment = £880

Trading cost = £0

Platform fee = 0.25% per annum.

This model portfolio is notionally held with Charles Stanley Direct. You can use that company’s monthly investment option to invest from £50 per fund. Just cancel the option after you’ve traded if you don’t want to make the same investment next month.

Take a look at our online broker table for other good platform options. Look at flat fee brokers if your portfolio is worth substantially more than £20,000.

Average portfolio OCF = 0.17%

If all this seems too much like hard work then you can buy a diversified portfolio using an all-in-one fund such as Vanguard’s LifeStrategy series.

Take it steady,
The Accumulator

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Weekend reading: Keeping your Dividend Edge

Weekend reading

Good reads from around the Web.

I first encountered Todd Wenning’s writing when he was working as an analyst for The Motley Fool UK on one of its newsletters. He had a real knack of bringing complicated active investing decisions down to earth.

Todd went back to the US, but for years his British fans were still able to follow his writings via a blog (now discontinued), which I featured in Weekend Reading more than a few times.

Now Todd has published a book: Keeping Your Dividend Edge.

I’ve read it and found it a slim but deceptively deep dose of wisdom for anyone who has decided to try to pick stocks in the pursuit of long-term income.

This is not a beginner’s guide to investing – it’s more a collection of interesting notes from a fellow investor who clearly has experience in the field. (It reminded me a bit of Anthony Bolton’s Investing Against the Tide in that respect.)

As such Keeping Your Dividend Edge is probably not for someone looking for their first investing book – and obviously it’s not required reading for Monevator’s legion of passive investors, either.

But if you’ve decided that dividend investing is for you and you already know how to wield a P/E ratio, then you’ll find plenty here to digest and put to work.

Todd agreed to answer a few of my questions, too.

Dividend investing is as old as the stock markets, so what did you hope to bring to the table with Keeping Your Dividend Edge?

The core tenets and advantages of dividend investing remain intact, though the environment in which we operate as dividend investors has changed considerably over the last 10-15 years.

Can you give us some examples?

Sure. Firstly, the increased popularity of share buybacks has required company executives and boards of directors to re-evaluate how they think about returning shareholder cash.

In the past, the dividend was typically the sole means of returning shareholder cash, but now companies can also consider buybacks as an alternative.

Buybacks can be great as long as the company is repurchasing its stock at a material discount to its fair value – thus transferring value from selling shareholders to ongoing shareholders – but relatively few CEOs and CFOs have proven to be particularly skillful at this.

Regrettably, few companies have a well-defined buyback policy like they may have with a dividend policy, leaving it up to shareholders to decipher their strategy.

With many dividend-paying companies also implementing a buyback program, dividend investors can’t wish buybacks away.

As such, you should know how to evaluate a company’s buyback philosophy and track record.

Of course those dividends aren’t guaranteed either…

Yes, the financial crisis and the heaps of dividend cuts that occurred in 2008 and 2009 left a few scars.

A number of U.S. and U.K. companies with long track records of maintaining and increasing their dividends suddenly slashed their payouts.

To many, the idea of an inherently ‘safe’ dividend went out the door when this occurred. It’s therefore important for dividend investors to be more vigilant – yet remain patient – when evaluating prospective and current holdings.

Is it at all realistic to expect dividends for life in today’s rapidly changing world?

Intensifying competition due to technological innovation and global economic participation means that today’s giants could have shorter shelf-lives than they might have had a generation ago.

It’s not enough to invest in a company that’s doing well today and assume competitors aren’t taking notice and finding ways to eat away at their profit margins.

When Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said, “Your profit margin is my opportunity,” he wasn’t joking around.

In my book, I aim to provide dividend investors with some tools and strategies for addressing these new factors.

I know you’re operating in the US now. Is your book equally relevant to UK stock pickers?

Experience has taught me that good investing principles translate well across borders – and I certainly hope that’s what I’ve done here.

You’ll have to forgive my American grammar and spelling, of course!

How should individual investors invest if they hope to do better than professional income funds?

The biggest advantage that individual investors have over professional money managers is their ability to be patient. It’s a massive edge that shouldn’t be underestimated.

The more you invest in businesses that you understand and the longer you extend your average holding period, the more likely you are, in my opinion, to have an edge over most professional income funds.

As Buffett has written, “The stock market serves as a relocation center at which money is moved from the active to the patient,” so erring on the side of patience tends to be a good strategy.

We welcome all sorts of investors here at Monevator, but as you may know our main focus is on passive funds and ETFs. So do you have an opinion about dividend ETFs, such as the iShares UK Dividend Aristocrat ETF?

The biggest thing to know with dividend ETFs is how they are structured.

Are they yield-weighted, dividend-weighted, market-weighted? When do they rebalance? And so on.

In the book, for example, I highlight a U.S.-based dividend ETF that invested heavily in banks leading up to and during the financial crisis precisely because those shares were among the highest yielders in the S&P 500. As you might have guessed, this had a bad outcome

So while I don’t have anything against dividend ETFs on the whole, they’re not all created equal. You still need to do some homework.

Are the old favourite dividend paying stocks overvalued in today’s low yield world?

There’s some mental comfort that comes along with buying the well-known blue chips, the Dividend Aristocrats, and so on.

At times, investors pile into them when they’re feeling risk adverse and drive up their valuations. Indeed, these can be very good companies to own at the right price, but if you’re looking for differentiated dividend ideas, you need to look elsewhere.

So where else might we be fruitfully looking?

This might be heretical in some dividend investing circles, but sifting through companies that have recently cut their dividends can be a fruitful exercise for more enterprising investors. Following a dividend cut, many income-minded shareholders have already folded and the company could be eager to re-earn their confidence by rebuilding the dividend in the subsequent years.

To illustrate, companies like Dow Chemical and International Paper in the U.S. slashed their payouts during the financial crisis and today pay higher dividends than they did in 2008. This strategy isn’t without its risks, of course, but it is an area where you might be able to find differentiated ideas.

[continue reading…]

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