What caught my eye this week.

Will we or won’t we? Go back the office that is. Although I say ‘we’ to give the vibe that we’re all in this together. But rather like a backyard reveler in Downing Street during a pandemic, I walk to my own beat.

More than 20 years ago I discovered I could mostly do my job from home, and more efficiently too.

“Sod the office!” quoth I. “And be damned with the commute.”

Perhaps I capped my (traditional) career prospects, but I never looked back in terms of quality of life. Working from home was like playing the game on easy mode. More time, fewer distractions, chores done incidentally during screen breaks, and always in for deliveries.

Most of you also now know that drill now.

Indeed, one good thing about lockdowns – bar the parties, natch – has been the world discovering how practical it is for more people to live this way.

Well, I say ‘good thing’ to again hit an inclusive note – but for me it’s been a step backwards.

More people in Waitrose at lunchtime. Everyone wanting to Zoom instead of just leaving you to get on with it. Double-digit house price growth in my fantasy rural retreats. The world has changed.

For many workers all this freedom is a revelation.

Bloomberg reports this week that 55% say they will quit if forced to return to the office.

No wonder we’ve all asked how long it will last.

Life’s too short

US cheapo broker Robinhood is just the latest firm to offer most of its staff permanent work from home, saying:

Our teams have done amazing work and built a strong workplace community during these uncertain and challenging times, and we’re excited to continue to offer them the flexibility they’ve asked for by staying primarily remote. 

Facebook and Twitter are two other big tech firms that have pledged to enable staff to keep working from home.

But Google has just taken a step in the other direction. While stressing it was forging a hybrid model rather than enforcing office labour, it nevertheless just plunked down $1 billion in additional commitments to its UK offices.

Reuters reports that:

Google plans to refit the building so it is adapted for in-person teamwork and has meeting rooms for hybrid working, as well as creating more space for individuals.

The new refurbishment will also feature outdoor covered working spaces to enable work in the fresh air.

Google says it will eventually have the capacity for 10,000 workers at its UK sites, including the one being developed in London’s King’s Cross.

Rishi Sunak, UK chancellor, even put his name to a quote that celebrated the move as a commitment to the UK tech sector.

On that political note though, I did wonder as I watched Google executives do the interview rounds whether this was in part a PR move?

The company was rolling out huge office buildings around King’s Cross before the pandemic. It was already pretty all-in.

Why not give the UK government something to cheer about ahead of the next furore over corporate taxes or some dodgy militants on YouTube?

Extras

A $1 billion is a lot to spend on PR though. Clearly Google is serious about its 6,400 UK workers having at least a foot in office life.

However this vision couldn’t stop Google postponing its global return to work plans last month, as the Omicron wave hit.

Many others have done the same. And of course in December it became official UK government guidance again to work from home if you could.

Those who believe the traditional office’s days are numbered think these delays have put the final coffin in things returning to how they were.

Nicholas Bloom, professor of economics at Stanford University, told the BBC that any hard return-to-office dates are dead:

“Endless waves of Covid have led most CEOs to give up, and instead set up contingent policies: if, when and how to return to the office.” 

Bloom believes that at the least the future will be hybrid now.

I see pros and cons. For example I chose to go into a client’s office a couple of times a week for a few years, which also gave me a bit of social contact. But it also meant I couldn’t exactly leave London for the Orkney Islands.

Hybrid working takes wholesale geographic reckoning off the table.

Perhaps that’s why the populations of UK cities have held up better than some predicted during the so-called ‘dash for space’.

After Life

A scattered workforce can make the office seem a bit of a nostalgic throwback, like wearing bowler hats to work.

As one worker told the BBC:

“I won’t come in regularly until there is a critical mass of people here.

There’s no point in leaving the house if I end up doing video calls anyway.”

The bottom line is I still don’t think we know what will happen next.

This week veteran commentator Barry Ritholz pointed out what a weird recovery we’re seeing across the spectrum.

No wonder those April 2020 thoughts of two weeks at home and we’re done seem so quaint these days.

Hubble is maintaining a long list of big or famous companies’ back-to-office strategies. What’s your favourite firm doing?

Wherever you are, have a great weekend. The evening’s are getting lighter!

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Before FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early), my bleakest time of year was always the first day back to work in January.

The real magic of Christmas is that we collectively agree to suspend reality for a precious few days. It’s as if we’ve been gifted an enchanted remote control that pauses the world.

Then some fool unfreezes it again and we’re back to business as usual.

As work problems piled up faster than party invites in Bojo’s inbox, my answer was to immediately book another holiday.

Must. Have. Something. To look forward to.

Post-FIRE, there’s no cold bucket of reality to the face.

It’s midwinter and the short days still seem to close early like a sleepy village shop.

But if simple pleasures are the secret to a good life, then FIRE lets you order a constant supply.

Plumbing the depths

My first day back after Christmas this year was spent having a Mr Money Mustache-style new skills adventure.

Not to overshare, but the toilet packed up.

And if the last year has taught me anything about Brexit Britain, it’s that I can’t get a plumber when I need one. They forgot to mention that one on the bus.

But what a chance to fully embrace the FIRE lifestyle! Exchanging pointless blah-blah meetings for the free-time to learn new tricks instead.

Isn’t that what it’s all about?

Okay, so I’m not rigging up a solar still or travel-hacking my way around Asia.

But c’mon! You gotta take it where you can get it.

At this point, I must confess that I’m not a DIY enthusiast. My opening gambit was to google: “How does a toilet work?”

I was starting from a low-skill base. But a mere five hours later I’d uncovered a torn diaphragm in my Fluidmaster Pro Bottom-Entry Fill Valve.

As painful as that sounds, I fixed it with 97p worth of new seal. The master toilet was back in business!

High-fives were declined by Mrs Accumulator until I’d been hosed down in the garden.

Alright, it wasn’t that bad but I’ll still spare you the harrowing mobile footage documenting the gruesome detail.

How much would my plumber have charged if I could get him? £100 to £150 I’d guess.

Instead, as an ex-knowledge worker, I got to feel semi-useful for a change.

I’ve heard of the happiness U-bend but maybe this is taking it too literally?

Flush with success

So FIRE isn’t all all-glamour and chasing cows, huh? Seems not. But at least it wasn’t another bog-standard day at the office.

I no more want to fix toilets for a living than I wanted to mop up torrents of BS in my old profession.

The killer is routine. The killer is doing the same thing day in, day out, and at a hundred miles an hour.

With time on your side, most problems dissolve away.

Even a slow day can be filled with fun in disguise.

Making a home. Playful verbal jousting with Mrs TA. Discovering an unexpected talent for following YouTube videos then claiming all the credit.

I can’t go back.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

Legendary investor Jim Slater lived through the 1970s stock market crash: the worst slump since the 1930s.

The London share index was at a 21-year low in 1975.

If you find yourself in the midst of a bear market then clearly Slater’s seen a thing or two.

Let’s hear what he has to say. (My comments in italics).

Slater’s tips on spotting a bear market bottom

Cash is king
At the bottom of a bear market, everyone agrees cash is the best place for your money. Even fund managers will be holding stacks of cash. This money eventually goes into the market, starting the next bull run.

Value is easy to find
Share prices, as measured by low P/E ratios, will be near to historical lows. The average dividend yield will be high, and shares may be selling at a discount to their book value. In 1975, the FTSE Ordinary Share Index stood at 146, with an average P/E of 4 (!)

Interest rates falling
Slater says interest rates have usually started falling from a high level near the end of a bear market. Lower interest rates will eventually revive economic activity.

Money supply rising
Broad money supply tends to be increasing at the turn of bear markets. Money is the lifeblood of the economy. Also, increasing supply will tend to push up asset prices.

Investment advisers are gloomy
The consensus view of advisers will be bearish. If everyone believes the market is going down, it should already have done so.

Little reaction to bad news
When bear markets stop falling on bad news, it can be a sign the market is bottoming out. Slater’s theory is that most of the weak sellers have already sold out. Shares therefore shrug off the latest bad news as long-term holders wait for better times.

Few IPOs
There are very few new issues (IPOs) at the bottom of bear markets. Entrepreneurs with successful companies would rather wait for more optimistic markets, to get a higher price for their creations.

Disinterested media
Press and TV comment shrinks as the public lose interest in shares. Financial articles are universally bearish, and bullish articles are ignored as the work of madmen. The classic contrast in our times is with the late 1990s tech run, when every magazine had a new billionaire CEO on the cover.

“Don’t talk to me about shares”
Nobody believes there’s any point in owning shares in a bear market, since everyone has suffered huge losses. The subject of the markets will rarely come up at parties. A good contrast would be with the property bull market that ended in 2006. Back then you could hardly reach for a bread roll before somebody declared they were buying property to let.

Changes in market leaders
Sectors that have enjoyed many years in the doldrums often start to recover, which may reveal the new leaders in the next bull market. Growth stocks also become “ridiculously cheap” according to Slater, as their P/E rating plunges to the levels of mediocre plodders. Again, think of the dotcoms – tech shares didn’t lead the 2003-2007 bull market, they handed the baton over to commodity stocks.

Upturn in the Coppock indicator
The Coppock indicator is a technical analysis tool that produces buy and sell signals for the markets. An upturn in the Coppock indicator has got a pretty good record as a strong buy signal. The Investors’ Chronicle in the UK publishes Coppock Indicator analysis.

Unemployment
Slater quotes a study by Matheson Securities that looked at ten stock market turning points, and found bear markets usually began on average ten months after unemployment started falling. Rapidly rising unemployment could therefore indicate a bear market is nearing its end. Presumably this would be because companies are shedding costs and becoming leaner and meaner.

Want more of Jim Slater’s wisdom? Check out his investment guide, The Zulu Principle.