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ETFs vs index funds: What are the key differences?

A fun ETFs vs index funds cartoon depicting two stock graphs squaring off in an arena.

Should you choose an ETF or an index fund? What features really matter? In this post, we’ll help you cut to the chase on ETFs vs index funds by focussing on the differences that count. See our table just below for a quick summary. 

You may well already know that index funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are both types of investment funds that are ideal for passive investing

Collectively known as index trackers, ETFs and index funds invest your money – along with that of thousands of other people – into particular asset classes and segments of the market, such as UK equities or global bonds. 

Both index funds and ETFs track an underlying index of securities such as the FTSE 100 or the S&P 500. Investing in a defined market like this enables trackers to capture investment returns like a solar panel converting the energy of the sun.  

From a big picture perspective, ETFs and index funds share the same benefits. Namely they are:

  • Low cost
  • Easily understood
  • Transparent
  • Liquid and readily accessible
  • Diversified across hundreds or even thousands of securities
  • The building blocks of a passive investing portfolio

So the two tracker types share plenty of DNA. But it’s worth knowing what separates them – just as you’d prepare differently for a tea party of chimpanzees compared to a visit from Auntie Hilda, even though they’re 99% genetically alike.

What are the major differences between ETFs and index funds?

ETFs Index funds
Trading Whenever the stock exchange is open Once a day
Pricing Fluctuates all day One price daily but unknown when you trade
Order types Usual range from your broker n/a
Minimum investment Typically one share Typically £25 to £100
Broker FX fees Avoid with GBP priced ETFs Not a problem
Investor compensation Not covered by UK compensation scheme Compensation applies to UK domiciled funds
Choice Access exotic markets Limited to broad markets

The main differences that are relevant to your ETFs vs index funds decision. 

We’ll now look at each difference in more detail below. 

ETFs vs index funds: trading

The big difference between ETFs and index funds lies in how they’re bought and sold. 

ETFs trade on a stock exchange, just like ordinary shares in single companies. In the UK, that means ETFs are listed on the London Stock Exchange.

ETFs can typically be traded any time the stock exchange is open. You could buy an ETF over breakfast and then sell it before you’ve finished the washing up. 

Index funds are bought directly from the financial services provider who runs the fund – albeit most often via a third-party platform such as Hargreaves Lansdown or Interactive Investor, who acts as an intermediary.

Funds are only traded once a day, often at midday. 

Fund providers set a daily cut-off point for trades. If you miss that day’s dealing deadline then your trade goes through on the following working day. 

11am is a common cut-off point but it varies from fund to fund. 

Either way, your ETF or index fund transactions are routed through an investing platform. (Some large providers like Vanguard enable you to buy and hold both directly with them. They are effectively their own broker.)

The difference is whereas you’ll know the outcome of your ETF trade in seconds – and you can immediately reinvest the proceeds of a sale – you’ll often wait a day or two to find out what happened with your index fund. And if you sold, it’ll take that day or two before you can put the proceeds of your index fund sale to work. 

ETFs can be traded using stop-loss, limit, and market orders. Index funds don’t have these options. 

Limit orders can be useful in enabling you to set a maximum buying price and minimum selling price, and then leaving the broker to execute your trade for you.

ETFs vs index funds: pricing

ETF prices fluctuate all day – although your broker will quote you a price per share before you trade. 

ETFs also have two prices at any given moment: a buying price (bid) and a selling price (offer). This is known as the bid-offer spread.

This spread means you’ll pay more to buy into an Exchange Traded fund than you will get for selling it a second later. It’s just like when you buy foreign currency for a trip abroad.

This is a cost of trading because you’re instantly down at the moment you’ve bought your shares.

True, the spread is negligible on ETFs with plenty of buyers and sellers. Such ETFs cover broad, deep markets such as the MSCI World or FTSE 100. 

However on a small and illiquid ETF, the spread can be over 1%.

Hargreaves Lansdown shows an ‘indicative spread’ estimate in the cost section of its web page for each individual ETF. 

You can also calculate the bid-offer spread from the prices given on the ETF’s homepage, via the London Stock Exchange, or through your broker.

Index funds are priced once daily at a specific valuation point. A fund’s price reflects the underlying value of its assets or net asset value (NAV).

Bizarrely, you don’t know what price you will buy or sell a fund for. 

You know the fund price at its last valuation point. But your trade will execute at the next valuation point. 

Effectively you’re trading half-blind. One consolation though is that statistically you’ve got about the same chance of gaining a better price as a worse one when your deal goes through.

Most index funds offer a single price. There’s no bid-offer spread to think about. 

However, the spread still exists. It’s just concealed in other charges.

ETFs vs index funds: minimum investment

ETFs are typically available from UK brokers in lots of at least one share. Aside from that, most brokers don’t impose a minimum investment amount.

A few brokers allow you to trade a fraction of a share. This is called fractional ETF investing and is handy if the ETF’s share price is higher than the sum you have to invest. InvestEngine offers fractional ETF investing. 

Index fund shares are called units. You can always trade fractions of a unit. For example, you can buy a half or even 0.333 of a unit. 

However, brokers often require you to invest a minimum amount in funds – from £25 to £100. The minimum is usually lower for monthly investment plans. 

Disregard any minimums that suggest you must invest thousands into a fund. Those thresholds apply to institutional brokers who buy directly from fund providers instead of via a broker. But the literature is not always clear on this.

Index funds vs ETFs: fees

There aren’t any significant ETF vs index fund differences when it comes to fees. There are though some banana skins to tap dance around.

Ongoing Fund Charges (OCF) – sometimes ETFs are cheaper than index funds in certain sub-asset classes. Other times index funds win. 

Monevator keeps a beady eye on low-cost index funds and ETFs.  

Trading fees – there are zero-commission options for funds and ETFs. See our broker comparison table. 

Platform fees – index funds and ETFs are generally treated the same by flat-fee brokers. 

Percentage-fee brokers tend to become more expensive for funds at a certain point. When they do you’re better off switching to a flat-fee broker, or only using ETFs via a broker who caps its fees. 

Fully optimising investment fees is a complex area but the upshot is that beginners will often find index funds are cheaper than ETFs until they reach the £20,000 threshold in an ISA and more than £60,000 in a SIPP. That’s true so long as your broker offers zero-commission fund trades. 

FX fees – some ETFs incur foreign currency conversion costs from your broker. Whereas vanishingly few index funds fall into the same punji pit. 

You’re fine if your fund’s webpage or factsheet says its base currency is GBP. Check your ETF’s base currency and trading currency is GBP to avoid additional FX fees.

ETF vs mutual fund vs index fund

ETFs, mutual funds, and index funds are all types of open-ended collective investment fund. 

But what’s an open-ended fund?

Well, it’s a collective investment vehicle that can create new fund shares (or units) to meet demand from buyers. It can also cancel shares to satisfy sellers. This mechanism ensures that a fund’s value rises and falls in line with the assets it holds (known as its Net Asset Value (NAV)).

Common open-ended fund legal structures include: Open-Ended Investment Companies (OEICs), Unit Trusts, and ETFs.

The alternative approach is a closed-end product such as an Investment Trust.

A closed-end fund restricts the number of shares available in the fund itself. It doesn’t add or subtract new shares as money flows into and out of the fund – rather the price changes with supply and demand. The upshot is that the price of a closed-ended fund can include a substantial premium or discount on top of its NAV. That creates a whole new dimension of risk and complexity that most passive investors can do without.

Index funds in the UK are commonly set up as OEICs. Some are structured as Unit Trusts, some as Investment Companies with Variable Capital (ICVCs).

The practical difference between these types is negligible from an investor’s perspective, except that Unit Trusts have a bid-offer spread. 

Mutual funds are the US equivalent of OEICs. But the term ‘mutual fund’ has crept into the UK investing lexicon as a collective noun for our minefield of open-ended fund types. 

You may also stumble across European equivalents such as SICAVs (société d’investissement à capital variable) and FCPs (fonds commun de placement).

If you’re ever in doubt as to the suitability of a fund, look out for the acronym UCITS in its name, or on its homepage or factsheet. 

The Undertakings for the Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) directive is a European regulatory standard. It helps regulate funds that are deemed suitable for use by everyday investors1 across Europe including the UK.  

ETFs vs OEICs 

Effectively this entire article is about ETFs vs OEICs because most index funds are classed as Open-Ended Investment Companies. 

However, actively managed funds are structured as OEICs, ICVCs, and Unit Trusts, too. 

Active funds are not bound to track an index. They can follow whatever strategy their manager thinks best. This freedom to pick stocks and time the markets imposes higher costs on active funds. Such fees undermine active funds performance on aggregate, making index trackers the better bet. 

A curious problem for index funds is that they can be hard to find among the long lists of active funds maintained by brokers or your workplace pension scheme. 

The best way to find index funds is to:

  • Navigate to your broker’s fund screener / selector page. 
  • Choose your asset class or fund provider / manager. 
  • Order the list by a fund charge such as the OCF or TER. 
  • (Index funds are cheaper than active funds so will normally congregate at the top using a fee filter like this.)
  • Now pick out index funds by looking for products with the word ‘index’ or ‘tracker’ in their name.
  • If the product combines the ‘index’ or ‘tracker’ naming convention along with the OEIC, ICVC, or Unit Trust label then it’s almost certainly an index fund.
  •  The clincher will be the description of the fund’s ‘investment approach’ or ‘objective’. It should say something like: ‘The fund’s aim is to closely track the performance of index X.’

Only a few fund providers actually carry a decent number of index funds in their range. We name the main players to search for in the next section. 

Beware too that there are a handful of ETFs on the market that use active management strategies. They’re few in number though and should be clearly labelled. You’ll probably spot them because they’ll sport an unusually high OCF for an Exchange Traded Fund.

Is an ETF an index fund? 

Technically an ETF is an index fund because it is an investment fund that tracks an index. However, the term ‘index fund’ is more commonly used to distinguish index-tracking OEICs, Unit Trusts, and ICVCs from Exchange Traded Funds.

Note, that neither active ETFs nor active funds can be described as index funds because they are not bound to follow a recognised index.

​​ETFs vs index funds: choice

ETFs vastly outnumber index funds. If you want to invest in a niche sector or theme then you’ll likely find an ETF to fit the bill. 

The following brands offer an extensive range of ETF options for UK investors:

  • iShares
  • Vanguard
  • Xtrackers
  • SPDR
  • Amundi
  • HSBC
  • L&G
  • Lyxor

Index funds are fewer in number but still provide plenty of choice. Especially if you want exposure to big, diverse markets via global trackers and bond funds, among other asset classes. 

The index fund market leaders are:

  • Vanguard
  • iShares
  • Fidelity
  • HSBC
  • L&G
  • Aviva
  • Royal London
  • Abrdn

Most brokers offer both types of tracker but you’ll find the occasional platform that restricts you exclusively to funds or ETFs.  

Our low-cost index funds and ETFs page offers a useful snapshot of the tracker market, divided by sub-asset classes.

ETF vs index fund UK

If you’re searching for ETF vs index fund UK info you’ll probably uncover plenty of US articles discussing pros and cons that just don’t apply over here. 

Here’s a quick list of the areas where there’s no significant difference between ETFs and index funds in the UK:

  • Capital gains
  • Dividend reinvestment – just use accumulation funds which exist in ETF form too.
  • Stock / securities lending

Stock-lending is a common practice that is product agnostic. ETFs, index funds, active funds, investment trusts and even your broker can lend out your securities to third-parties. 

It all depends on the policy of the product provider. Not everyone does it and you can choose ETFs or index funds from providers who don’t if you want to. 

A fund or ETF provider will state on its website which products are not subject to securities lending. 

The important thing is that companies are transparent about their lending policy and share the proceeds with investors who bear the counterparty risk.

Are index funds safer than ETFs?

Index funds are not safer than ETFs. Your capital is at risk in both tracker types, just as it is in any investment. 

However, ETFs are riskier than index funds in the sense that they’re not covered by the UK investor compensation scheme whereas some index funds are. 

In short, if your product provider is a UK authorised firm (as defined by the FCA) then its UK-domiciled funds are eligible for compensation. 

However, funds domiciled overseas are highly unlikely to be eligible. All ETFs are domiciled abroad hence you’d find yourself whistling should compensation ever be needed. 

Thankfully the scheme hasn’t ever been called upon to bail out owners of a major fund provider. Moreover, the payout terms are quite narrow. The most you’d ever receive is £85,000 per insolvent firm. 

But many people don’t realise that overseas funds and ETFs aren’t covered by the UK scheme.

You can check your index fund or ETF domicile on its homepage or factsheet. 

Riskier ETF types

There are a range of exotic ETFs that are fundamentally riskier than vanilla index funds because they behave in unexpected ways that require considerable expertise to understand. 

To play safe, run don’t walk from:

  • Leveraged ETFs – which multiply the daily gains (or losses) of an index. For example: the FTSE 100 x2 or x3.
  • Inverse or short ETFs – deliver the opposite of the daily return of an index. For example, the ETF rises 1% if the FTSE 100 falls 1%.
  • Sector or theme ETFs – invest in energy firms or AI or gold miners or many other slices of the market. More straightforward than the two previous banned substances, they still have no place in a passive investor’s portfolio.

Other Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) that are related to ETFs but entail greater risk include:

  • Exchange Traded Commodities / Currencies (ETCs) – complex investment products that track oil, cattle, renminbi, and so on. (Gold ETCs are okay.)
  • Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) – an uncollateralised debt instrument for tracking hard-to-reach markets such as volatility and carbon emissions. 
  • Certificates – a European version of an ETN. 

Exotic ETPs can be expensive, harbour hidden risks, and often owe more to financial fashion than financial sense. Don’t venture down the back alleyways unless you know what you’re doing. And even then think twice.

Synthetic ETFs

ETFs divide into two main types:

Physical ETFs hold the securities tracked by their index as you’d expect. They either replicate the index in full or sample a significant proportion. So far, so normal.

Synthetic ETFs, in contrast, do not own the securities in their index. Instead they buy an instrument known as a total return swap from a financial institution, such as a major investment bank.

This total return swap pays out the return of the index tracked by the synthetic ETF. The ETF pays that return to its investors (minus costs) while the financial institution gets the ETF’s cash as well as any return from the collateral the ETF manager has set aside.

If you’re currently shouting: “What witchcraft is this?” I wouldn’t blame you – they are weird.

Synthetic ETFs are exposed to counterparty risk – in other words, they could lose money – if the swap provider defaults on its obligation to pay the return of the index.

In this instance, the ETF would use its collateral to pay investors back the value of their holdings. However, there is no guarantee that the collateral would fully cover investors if a swap provider defaults during a market meltdown.

You can avoid counterparty risk by choosing ETFs or index funds that physically replicate their index and that don’t lend out their holdings.

The ETF’s homepage should say whether the ETF is synthetic or physical. Email its provider if you can’t find what you’re looking for.

Index funds physically replicate their index. They don’t exist in synthetic form.

Index funds vs ETFs for beginners

Index funds are more suitable for beginners than ETFs because they’re the most straightforward tracker type. They should be your first choice where possible.

ETFs are a slightly more complicated product. However there are plenty of plain, vanilla ETFs that are just fine for beginners. 

Ultimately, you won’t go far wrong if you stick to straightforward ETFs that track familiar markets like the developed world, the UK, government bonds, and the emerging markets.

In your hunt you’ll also likely dig up highly specialised ETFs (and related animals) that offer exposure to niche markets.

Steer clear of those unless you’re absolutely sure you understand the risks. 

ETF or index fund?

Neither ETFs or index funds are better. They’re both excellent building blocks for your portfolio, and you should feel free to pick the investment that best fits your plan. 

Ultimately, the ‘ETFs vs index funds’ match-up is a score draw. Index funds are marginally simpler to understand and use but ETFs are unmatched for choice and diversity.

Passive investors should feel free to mix and match the two types for the best of both worlds.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

Note: We kept older reader comments intact when we completely rewrote this article in 2022. Some aspects of the ETFs vs index funds debate have changed over time, so please keep that in mind.

  1. Or retail investors as we’re known in the finance industry. []
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Weekend Reading logo

What caught my eye this week.

Afternoon everyone, how are you finding the heatwave?

Portent of doom? Chance for a glass of vino in the garden at 8pm with your feet up pretending you’re in the Med?

Maybe a bit of both?

Actually, don’t answer. The usual suspects (or at least their social media bots) have moved on from blaming the EU and Covid denial to calling climate change a hoax. I’d rather they did so elsewhere.

At least shares have been recovering nicely.

The market seems to think it has sniffed out inflation rolling over, and in that environment future earnings become more valuable again.

I expected this – alas six months and one invasion ago – so I’m predisposed to agree. But when you look at the energy bills forecast for next year it’s going to take some believing. And another shock (or maybe yet a new variant in the pandemic) would surely set us back again.

Still as the graph below shows, it’s not unprecedented that a disinterested pound-cost averaging passive investor could get to December, do their annual check-in, and assume 2022 was a nothing happening year.

The rewards of passive investing stretch far further than saving a few quid on fees, right?

Have a balmy weekend.

[continue reading…]

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Image of a woman doing meditation to illustrate how stress-free applying for credit can be

In my early 20s I was a debit card kind of guy. I’d save what I could, and frowned at the thought of borrowing money that I didn’t have on plastic, to pay for goods and services I didn’t need. I also (mistakenly) believed that applying for a credit card would be harmful to my future credit score.

While ‘credit score building’ wasn’t taught in school, I knew some people had better scores than others. I also vaguely understood that creditworthiness was important to get a decent mortgage.

Now I’m more financially astute, I appreciate that credit cards have a lot of other uses besides giving free and easy access to cash.

But what about that relationship between credit cards and credit scores? Is that still a legitimate concern? Will applying for a credit card negatively impact your future creditworthiness?

Let’s take a look at how credit scores work, and what happens when you make an application.

What happens to your credit score when you apply for a credit card?

Every time you apply for a credit card you must undergo a credit search. These searches are deemed either ‘hard’ or ‘soft’.

Hard searches are more common when you make an application for credit. If you undergo a hard search as part of a credit card application then it will show on your credit file.

Other lenders will be able to see this later. They will know you made an application for credit on a particular date.

A ‘hard’ search is logged even if you aren’t looking to borrow money. For example, you may just want to apply for a credit card to earn cashback or rewards on your everyday spending.

Soft searches, on the other hand, are more lenient. Only you can see soft searches on your credit file. Lender’s can’t.

Soft searches are rarer than hard searches. They mostly apply to current account applications. And even then, many current account providers still require applicants to undergo a hard search.

Hard searches aren’t all that concerning

Now for the good news. While hard searches may seem scarier than soft searches, they aren’t really a big deal.

Yes, hard searches leave a visible mark on your credit file. But they aren’t recorded forever.

Most hard searches will drop off your credit report after a year, according to the credit reporting giant Experian.

With this in mind, if you applied for a credit card over a year ago, it will probably no longer have any impact on your future creditworthiness.

Even more importantly, visible marks on your credit file DON’T give lenders any indication on whether you’ve been accepted for a card.

If you’re rejected for a credit card, you needn’t be embarrassed that other lenders will be able to see that another lender has shown you the door.

It’s still worth minimising the number of credit applications you make

Even though most applications for credit are removed from your credit file after a year or so, it’s a bad idea to apply for credit cards like there’s no tomorrow.

Remember, any credit applications you make do remain visible on your file for up to a year.

So if you make multiple credit cards applications in a short space of time, lenders may get the idea you’re in dire financial straits and are desperate for cash. This can paint a picture that you’re irresponsible with money, and therefore less likely to repay anything you borrow.

In other words, make several credit card applications in a row and there’s a high chance you’ll find yourself in a rejection spiral.

If you are ever rejected for a credit card, it’s best to take a step back and properly assess which cards are most likely to accept you, before you continue to make applications.

Card credit eligibility checkers can protect your credit score

Every credit card lender has its own acceptance criteria. Apart from a handful cards of that offer pre-approval before you even apply, lender’s borrowing criteria is often top secret.

And so you often won’t know whether you’re likely to be accepted for a card before you make your application.

This is where credit card eligibility checkers (or calculators) can be very useful.

Eligibility checkers enable you to enter your details and get a view on your chances of acceptance for various cards – without having to encounter a hard search.

Some of the better eligibility checkers – such as the one managed by MoneySavingExpert – also list cards that offer pre-approval.

If you’re pre-approved for a card then you’ll definitely get it if you go on to apply.

Credit file vs credit score: what’s the difference?

In simple terms, your credit file (also known as a credit report) contains your personal details, plus any past or present debts you have. It also details any missed debt payments.

Your credit score meanwhile is a figure that credit rating agencies have come up with, based on your credit file. Lenders may use this score when determining your overall creditworthiness – though each lender ultimately makes it own decision on whether to give you access to credit.

You have a right to access your credit report and score from any of the UK’s big credit rating agencies: Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax.

Getting a credit card can help your credit score

One of the biggest myths in personal finance is that using credit cards can only be harmful to your credit score.

In fact, the opposite can be true. A credit card may actually help boost your creditworthiness.

For example, if you have little or no credit history – which is typically the case for students or new graduates – then lenders won’t have much of an idea as to the likelihood of you managing credit responsibly. That is why students typically have mediocre credit scores.

If this applies to you, then one way of boosting your credit score can be to sign up for a specialist ‘credit card for bad credit’. Such cards often have low acceptance criteria, though in return, they come with enormous annual percentage rates (APR).

However, high charges shouldn’t be an issue if you fully repay your balance each month.

If you don’t think you can or will keep up with your repayments, then don’t get a card. Period!

But if you do get one of these specialist cards, spend responsibly, stay within your credit limit, and clear your balance each month, then you should see your credit score improve after six months or so.

We’re out of time to dive into the different ‘bad credit cards’ available. Honestly, there isn’t much to choose between them. But two popular brands to begin your research are Marbles and Capital One.

Do you pay any attention to your credit score? Is there anything I’ve missed above? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Bear market recovery: how long does it really take?

An image of a graph with a picture of a bear over it to illustrate a bear market recovery

How long does it take equities to recover from a bear market?

By that I mean not just how long does it take for a bear market to end. Bears can be officially over in months.

But how long does it take us for us to recover our losses? To get back in the black?

Sadly, that’s a much longer slog… 

UK bear market recovery times

A chart showing the length of UK bear markets

The financial software people at Timeline have produced an excellent chart tracing the severity and length of UK bear markets.

They calculated the recovery time for £100,000 of UK equities after each bear market from 1926 to the end of 2021. 

The graph line reveals the extent of the loss at market bottom. 

The END dates show when your investment finally breaks even – that is, when your investment is worth £100,000 again (dividends reinvested). 

The data reveals that the:

  • Average bear market recovery time is 18 months
  • Shortest bear market recovery time was 11 months (Fallout from the US ‘Vietnam War’ recession)
  • Longest bear market recovery time was two years and seven months (Dotcom bust)

That’s recovery time after the end of the bear market itself. 

How long does the whole thing take?

The total duration of a bear market event is more daunting when you add its downward leg to the recovery time back to breakeven:

Total bear market recovery times for UK equities presented in table format

Data from the Timeline Chart 2022. Dividends reinvested. Nominal returns.

The total length of a bear market including recovery time is: 

  • On average: three years and one month
  • Shortest: one year and four months (Coronavirus crash)
  • Longest: five years (Dotcom bust)

Quite the buzz kill, right? The total recovery time was still over a year for even the short yet savage 1987 and pandemic crashes – despite the fact that both lasted only a couple of months as bear markets. 

And grim as these totals already are, they also miss out a crucial component: inflation

Because as investors living in the real world, we don’t care about the beauty contest that is nominal wealth.

We care about our purchasing power. So we need to know how much our investments are worth in real terms.1

The question: how soon do we recover from a bear market, taking into account inflation?

UK real-return bear market recovery times

Professor Wade Pfau calculates the UK stock market took 11 years to recover in real terms from its 1972-74 crash. As opposed to four years and ten months in the nominal returns table above.

And using crude annual returns, I’ve calculated the real recovery time for a few more UK bear markets (dividends included) as follows:

Bear market Nominal recovery Real recovery Real duration
1929-32 1935 1932 3 years
1937-40 1941 1944 7 years
1972-74 1977 1983 11 years
2007-09 2011 2013 6 years

Ironically, UK deflation shortens the real recovery time of our version of the 1929 crash.

But when it comes to the other three UK bear markets, factoring in the wealth-whipping headwind of inflation pushes out recovery times significantly. 

US bear market real-return recovery times

We can calculate real-terms recoveries more accurately thanks to publicly available data for the US stock market.  

Here are the inflation-adjusted bear market recovery times for the S&P 500:

A table showing bear market recovery times for the S&P 500 using real, inflation-adjusted returns, and dividends reinvested

Calculations made using DQYDJ’s S&P 500 return calculator. Monthly returns. CPI-adjusted. Dividends reinvested. Fall % is a nominal return.

Now we have a more realistic view of the impact of multiple bear markets

Bear market recovery time, adjusted for inflation, and including the down leg measures:

  • On average: four years and four months
  • Shortest: six months (Coronavirus crash)
  • Longest: 13 years (Dotcom bust)

However, if we bundle up the series of slumps that marked the Great Depression, we get one giant bear lasting from September 1929 to January 1945. That’s 15 years and four months until you broke even.2

At least that’s better than the oft-quoted 25 year recovery time that doesn’t include dividends or deflation, and is based on the narrower Dow Jones index.

We can see that inflation adds more than a year on average to bear market recovery times by crudely comparing the UK’s nominal three year and one month average to the full-fat four year and four month total bear duration. 

Moreover, the US suffered three lost decades. One great bear leaves investors covered in paw prints every 20 to 25 years. 

There’s a fairly clear, if imperfect, correlation between the depth of the decline and the length of the recovery. 

Once we’re slammed into -45% territory then you’re looking at a real return recovery time of half a decade or more. 

What’s the worse case scenario?

As detailed in our gargantuan bear markets primer, major meltdowns can be brutal. It took more than 31 years to recover from Japan’s 1989 stock market crash

The worst bear I’ve read about is Austria’s 89 year wait to breakeven. That followed a -96% carve-up in 1914-25. 

My best investment advice: don’t invest all your money into an empire that loses a world war and is permanently dismembered in the aftermath. 

In fact, even Austria’s death plunge isn’t as bad as the total wipeouts sustained by Russian and Chinese investors after their Communist Revolutions.

Buy and hold definitely doesn’t work when the Marxists shut down the stock exchange. 

Living in the real world

Above we’ve considered market data. But in reality, the bear market recovery time we experience will be further drawn out by investment costs.

We can improve our results by pound-cost averaging through the downturn – and by diversifying into defensive assets such as government bonds ahead of time.

The chart below shows how a higher allocation to high-quality government bonds sped up the recovery from the coronavirus crash vs a pure equities portfolio:

Source: JP Morgan: Guide to the Markets. 31 May 2022. Page 63.

Perhaps even more importantly, a 60/40 portfolio dramatically reduced the severity of the bear market.

Experiencing shallower swoons makes it easier to stay the course. It’s far harder to come back from a bear market if you panic sell after a deep loss, lock in your losses, and then miss the rebound.

Take the right steps to protect your portfolio ahead of time. It’s usually too late once a bear market runs wild.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

  1. Real returns subtract out inflation from your investment results. They’re thus a more accurate portrayal of how your capital has grown in relation to purchasing power than are standard nominal returns. []
  2. The November 1936 recovery from the 1929 crash lasts only a few months before the next bear begins in March 1937. []
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