Weekend reading: Can we take back control from Brexit?

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• 1 Keith December 14, 2018, 6:31 pm

  A long-read link for the Brexit section:
  https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/
• 2 Alex December 14, 2018, 6:45 pm

  Another revolution?
  Beware of the fishermen’s wives and their knifes while they gut fish on the Thames .
• 3 ZXSpectrum48k December 14, 2018, 7:05 pm

  I don’t think politicians can get a grip. Brexit opened up a can of worms. It made it clear that that the mapping between political parties and the views of the population has broken down. For decades, parties approximated these views using a one-dimensional approach; a simple left to right spectrum, primarily a function of your economic position. Brexit made it clear that other issues matter equally deeply to the voters (globalisation, nationalism, multiculturalism and immigration, social liberalism, deindustrialisation etc). These overshadowed the economic arguments and don’t fit that simple mapping. Whatever the outcome of Brexit, these issues will not go away since most of them have little to do with our position in or out of the EU.

  For me Brexit is just a symptom of the 20th century nation-state looking increasingly obsolete in the face of 21st century challenges. No surprise that the major political parties, that represented those nation-states for so long, also look completely ineffective.
• 4 MrOptimistic December 14, 2018, 7:07 pm

  @K. That’s not a nice read. Will read again. Thanks for the link. Perhaps with a coherent opposition with a clear position things may have been different, at least other options available. From here it looks like a hard Brexit, but hopefully not disorderly. With the current discourse even a second vote is at hazard. It was always unrealistic to deny that WTO might be the end game.
• 5 The Investor December 14, 2018, 7:17 pm

  @Keith — Thanks, have added.

  @ZXSpectrum48k — You wrote:

  For me Brexit is just a symptom of the 20th century nation-state looking increasingly obsolete in the face of 21st century challenges. No surprise that the major political parties, that represented those nation-states for so long, also look completely ineffective.

  Agreed. One of the biggest ironies of Brexit is seeing people grasping for nationalism when all the major problems including some of their gripes are international and most of the daily conflicts have never been more atomized, border-less, and state-less (e.g. The ongoing identity politics debate.)
• 6 ed December 14, 2018, 7:25 pm

  Ha loved the bloomberg link – I agree UK didn’t grasp the significance that the border would play on negotiations.
• 7 Tyro December 14, 2018, 7:49 pm

  Another addition to the Brexit readings:

  https://ucl-brexit.blog/2018/11/29/how-come-such-a-weak-deal/
• 8 MrOptimistic December 14, 2018, 7:51 pm

  From what I have read, the Good Friday agreement set the course for a united Ireland. No surprise the DUP are keen on anything which might detail that. However, even if Theresa threw the DUP under the bus, and with it a third of her own party, the opposition would still join in the debacle. Can’t see there is anything to grab for politicians to get a grip.
• 9 Sam December 14, 2018, 7:59 pm

  Interesting post, thank you for sharing.

  I’m one of the (estimated) 27% of under-25s who did vote for Brexit. My primary reason was for sovereignty, but also partly due to concerns with immigration, etc. I’m willing to accept that we may be worse off as a result of leaving the EU, but as to the extent of the possible damage I am sceptical of the official forecasts (as is Paul Krugman, who is hardly a Brexiteer headbanger – https://order-order.com/2018/11/29/economist-won-nobel-prize-trade-theory-sceptical-carneys-forecasts/).

  Ultimately, I believe that there are more important things in the governing of a country than GDP points. If, as I do, you believe that sovereignty of the nation state is one of the highest ideals, then a vote and (maybe) some economic damage seems like a good deal in return. Other peoples have had to shed a whole lot more for the same things.
• 10 Faustus December 14, 2018, 8:02 pm

  A good read as always. What is alarming is how deluded so many people seem to be about the impact of a disorderly no-deal outcome, which looks more possible by the day. The latest polls suggest that in a Remain vs No deal referendum the latter would still get 43%. That is only because many believe the lies repeatedly told by May, Rees-Mogg, Johnson and the tabloid press that ‘no deal’ will involve no problems.

  The reality is that it will cause immense disruption to every aspect of our lives, force many companies to relocate out of the UK, cost jobs, raise prices and make us all significantly poorer. I work in a field (transport and infrastructure) where the impacts of no deal have been known for many months, yet the Brexhitters in Parliament simply refuse to listen. The tragedy is that the millionaires like Mogg, Johnson et al will suffer much less than the people they fooled.

  The Brexhitters will quickly find in this scenario that the public will want someone to blame for the disaster (and the public never blames itself!). I suspect the resulting unrest will make the gilets jaunes protests in France look like a Sunday afternoon picnic.
• 11 MrOptimistic December 14, 2018, 8:49 pm

  How is it that Jeremy Corbyn isn’t part of the rogues gallery? Labour have sufficient MPs to provide a rallying point but what have they done as Her Majesty’s opposition?
  Are we so cynical that you believe people set out to deliberately fool people in that way. Having accepted that leavers have fooled themselves, why are you not consistent in thinking that MPs can’t do it to themselves? Do you think R M and J are smarter than Joe public? I actually think these people believe what they say and that is where the problem lies, they think they are right.
• 12 Earlyretirefree December 14, 2018, 8:55 pm

  I can’t decide what’s the most irritating thing about Brexit (there are so many) but let’s start with this:

  All of the main political players (meaning both factions of the Tory party plus Labor) argue that we need to deliver Brexit and “respect the democratic decision made by the people in 2016”. However, they all seem to be more interested in political point scoring that working together to reach a consensus on how to best navigate Brexit. Because of the continual squabbling, we’re effectively running the clock down to a potentially catastrophic no-deal Brexit.

  The initial vote to leave the EU was non-party political and should have remained so. How could it not?

  The only glimmer of hope (and my personal prediction) is that the politicians see that no-deal is completely unacceptable and we delay article 50 to enable there to be a further referendum on the different options (1. the deal on the table. 2. No-deal. 3. Remain)

  And to those who say that is a betrayal of democracy I ask this – “exactly what form of Brexit did you vote for?” followed by “Show me one other person who had the exact same definition”
• 13 rdw December 14, 2018, 8:57 pm

  I voted leave, and now after 2 years I deeply regret it. Systematically, one by one, every Brexit claim has been picked apart and shown as snake oil. I almost can’t believe JRM et al are still appearing on TV spouting their non-sense. I now hope for a second referendum to have the chance to stop this mess before it’s too late. This would likely come at a cost of major social unrest which is not something to be desired.
• 14 MrOptimistic December 14, 2018, 9:09 pm

  Well that would work for me but would be best if the governing crowd recommended it in unison, otherwise the nuclei for polarisation would remain.
• 15 The Investor December 14, 2018, 10:19 pm

  I think that’s what I mean by “get a grip”. I think the Commons should vote down this bad-for-all pointless deal, and then there at least should be another Referendum, if not a rescinding and long-term kick down the road before re-issuing Article 50 when we have some unity in Parliament as to where we want to go.

  I’d be more sympathetic to the idea this was a betrayal of the Referendum if anything like a plan had been agreed upon even by the Leave faction, let alone some sort of unity coalition (which is what a monumental change like this should have involved from the start, not May’s my-way-or-the-highway madness).

  In reality there is literally no plan. That is of course what infuriates the Europeans, too. No plan was ludicrous enough before the Referendum but perhaps tactically forgivable, it was surprising/shocking in the aftermath, and it is now downright dangerous.

  The Tory Eurosceptic fringe will never accept No Brexit. Ideally the Conservatives would boot them out and they could have their own fringe party. But that will probably mean permanent Labour government (or coalitions with the Tories which just reintroduces the problem) which is obviously not acceptable to the Tory leadership or its voters, nor many floating voters like me I expect, and it was why Cameron went down this road in the first place.

  I don’t have a good answer. I reluctantly accept that Britain has a ‘European problem’. That’s why it’s there in the Tory party, and why Leave won. Personally I believe it’s based on decades of fantasy and fear-mongering against a backdrop where in reality the EU by and large for nearly everyone did exactly what it said on the tin, with some ugly sausage-making aspects that all governing systems involve, and which certainly compare well with our current parliamentary proceedings. But whatever, that argument has been lost once already. 🙁
• 16 diy investor (uk) December 14, 2018, 10:30 pm

  I originally voted for Brexit in 2016. The commons overwhelmingly voted to give us a referendum and promised to implement the result…and we are still waiting.

  The PM got off to a good start with her Lancaster House speech but sadly had backtracked by the time we got to Chequers. I realise that expecting the establishment to deliver something they think is a bad idea is not realistic.

  Sadly there is no political will to deliver on the vote. The waters have been muddied by a strategy of attempting to please remainers by retreating from Lancaster…then retreating from Chequers until we end up with a deal which pleases neither remain or leave…quite an achievement.

  The vote was binary…leave or remain and we voted to leave. Yes, if we can leave with a good trade deal that would be preferred but this looks unlikely at this late stage so my preferred option from here would be a negotiated deal on WTO adding the uncontroversial parts of what we have so far.

  Although this is the default position, I suspect the MPs will not go with this as most of them want to remain. The possibilities are therefore another general election which may not be decisive or despite ruling it out, PM will agree to another referendum. If you know what the question would be then I take my hat off to you!

  Another referendum would be a sign of failure in our democracy and a slap in the face to all those ordinary people… the left-behinds, no university education, many of whom had not voted for years who were persuaded to come out in the hope that their vote on this occasion could make a difference. They were told this was a once in a gerneration decision…they were warned that voting leave could cost them their jobs…maybe 500,000 gone by Christmas…and they were prepared to risk the downside because, in their heart of heart, they did not trust the EU and wanted to regain control of sovereignty so that our Parliament had the final say in all the things that affects their lives.

  They will feel betrayed and let down…a very familiar feeling…and I am with them 100%
• 17 DeeperBlue December 14, 2018, 10:46 pm

  It’s about democracy: see Tony Benn here from 2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWnpbEMMsNw
  Remainers cannot explain why we should be governed by the unelected EU Commision.
  Remainers usually are people who have been on holiday in Europe a few times and enjoy the food and drink and sightseeing and have no understanding of how it is run for the interests of the large corporations and financial institutions.
  The most successful, peaceful and prosperous countries in Europe are outside the EU! (Norway, Switzerland).
• 18 The Investor December 14, 2018, 10:52 pm

  Remainers cannot explain why we should be governed by the unelected EU Commision.

  Easy. The ‘unelected EU Commision’ is the EU civil service. It’s just like our civil service. Our elected representatives in the European Parliament have to ratify anything they come up with. That’s the EU democracy in action.

  It’s very simple. So simple that if you still don’t understand that then I suppose you don’t want to.
• 19 Paul December 14, 2018, 10:55 pm

  The idea of a country wanting to have jurisdiction over it’s own laws, borders, waters and trade agreements is rather antiquated now that you mention it. Silly me. What was I thinking?
• 20 The Investor December 14, 2018, 11:03 pm

  @DIY Investor (UK) — I left a long comment on your site about the Lancaster House speech that was never published. I am not sure whether it was rejected or (more likely I think? 🙂 ) eaten up by the spam software or similar.

  Anyway, the point is if I were you I would consider letting go of the Lancaster House speech.

  The reason that it hasn’t been implemented is because has been explained literally thousands of times now May’s stated aims were incompatible with her red lines. You can’t have frictionless trade on the same terms with have with the EU while being outside the EU, not paying anything in, not accepting free movement etc.

  This is so obvious that I am personally staggered why Leavers don’t get it.

  At best you could say it was a bananas opening gambit on the grounds you should always ask for the sky in negotiations and then see what you end up negotiating down to.

  But the poisonous thing is, self-evidently, many Leavers seem to have believed it was actually a credible potential outcome. It never, ever, was.

  I have no argument with you supporting a transitional/planned WTO arrangement. I think it’s ridiculous to give up our great deal in Europe for such crappy terms outside it but fair enough, that’s a personal decision on the benefits/costs, and if you care more than supposed lost sovereignty or freedom of movement than me then it may be worth the sacrifice. As I say, fair enough.

  That kind of planned-WTO arrangement is an implementable plan, that’s the key thing. If May had said that was what she was going to implement in Lancaster House I would still have been angry about it — because it’s a dramatic change in our position on the basis of the small majority win in favour of Leave — but at least it would have been internally consistent.

  That’s the other terrible aspect to all this. Many Leavers clearly still seem to believe it was possible to have our cake and eat it, even while being by far in the weaker negotiating position and despite the past two years being a massive reality check! So now they feel betrayed that something that was never possible is not going to come to pass. (Not Brexit — I mean an amazing “all done by Tuesday, they’ll be knocking down our doors” Brexit.)

  Incredible to me, but perhaps I’m more hard-headed than I thought.

  (I don’t expect you to suddenly see this point of view but that’s Brexit in a nutshell, eh? All the best anyway, hope you have a great Christmas and New Year! 🙂 )
• 21 DeeperBlue December 14, 2018, 11:19 pm

  “The ‘unelected EU Commision’ is the EU civil service. It’s just like our civil service. Our elected representatives in the European Parliament have to ratify anything they come up with. That’s the EU democracy in action.”

  I had to laugh at that. Do you really believe that? Crikey!
  Do you realise that it is the unelected EU Commission and only the unelected EU Commission that can make formal proposals for legislation? Imagine if our civil service was the only body who could propose new laws – instead of MPs and political parties!
• 22 The Investor December 14, 2018, 11:19 pm

  The idea of a country wanting to have jurisdiction over it’s own laws, borders, waters and trade agreements is rather antiquated now that you mention it. Silly me. What was I thinking?

  What you present as self-evident is far from the case. That’s why 27/28 EU states are staying in the EU, and why very nearly half of your fellow citizens feel the same way.

  Why is that? Well, partly because it is 2018 and the things you mention are somewhat antiquated, yes.

  Laws — We make up most of our own laws. Most EU laws are laws we’d immediately implement anyway (as we may be about to do as “rule takers” under some version of Brexit.) These countries are reasonable countries, and are basically like us. Nobody gets to have everything their own way — the UK is routinely run by Governments that had less than half the popular vote. So presumably you don’t feel you made up those laws either.

  Waters — If you mean fishing, that industry is literally the size of bike shop Halfords. It’s irrelevant in 2018. If you mean defensively, we are not going to be invaded by the sea because it’s not 1600 or even 1941. If we are, we’ll shoot them down, or nuke them if need be.

  Trade agreements — You might not want to make your own trade agreements when they’re worse on balance (not in every last instance) than the ones you make with 450million other people at your back. Certainly that’s my view.

  Borders — Well, this is legitimate from a Leaver POV. I can’t argue for the EU with respect to freedom of movement if you don’t like it.

  However I would point out that the UK didn’t even police non-EU immigration to the level demanded by Brexiteers, at all, for decades. So there was a ton we could have done, if it was so important, and didn’t.
• 23 The Investor December 14, 2018, 11:22 pm

  @DeeperBlue — Yes, I do believe that because it’s true. I’m fully aware of how it works. Countries set the EU Commission tasks and they come up with legislation that is then accepted or rejected by countries. That seems a feasible way of working across a body of half a billion people and 28 States but if you have a better alternative I’m sure the EU would love to hear it.

  Also, the UK civil service does effectively outline and implement UK law, under direction by Parliament. Do you think MPs sit there drafting thousands of pages of legal text?

  So many Leaver positions that are stated as if worldly wise are just fanciful I’m afraid.
• 24 NorthWestIan December 14, 2018, 11:36 pm

  I agree the politicians should get a grip. The route to this could be for the Cabinet approved withdrawal agreement and future relationship be put to a Commons vote. After falling at this fence the Article 50 clock ought to be paused and a cross party team comprising leavers, remainers, doubters and the ultra’s of all shades of opinion be tasked with preparing a new heads of agreement for the departure of the UK from the EU. A realistic time frame for completion of this task should be agreed at the start but it would have to be completed before the next general election. The UK would remain in the EU and recognise that the referendum result has to be delivered. I think this would be the third and final strike for the politicians, they couldn’t agree on the Cameron deal, nor the May/Cabinet deal, if they can’t deliver on a cross party basis then it would be relevent to ask what on earth are they for?
• 25 MrOptimistic December 14, 2018, 11:37 pm

  Frankly this is getting frightening. Might impact my investments but I have huge overweight in cash and unhedged US treasuries. That doesnt stop me worrying about my children’s jobs. Brexit is, or perhaps now was, manageable but I feel like a third class passenger locked down on the Titanic’s lowest deck.
• 26 Matt December 14, 2018, 11:46 pm

  You present assumptions as facts. It’s your blog and you can write what you like, but I won’t be reading it anymore.
• 27 Steve December 15, 2018, 12:54 am

  This hokey kokey Brexit is nothing to worry about, it looks like the EU and May have been working out how to fake a break from the EU without actually breaking away, I would imagine they are just trying to find the right time to sign and finish it off, maybe they will give the UK one last win and MPs will be happy. I think what has happened in France has spooked them.
  I read in IC that only 15-16% of our economy is accounted for by imports and exports, and around half of that is with Europe.
  WTO or trade deal whatever deal we come up with won’t make that much difference in my opinion.
  We pay plenty of money to the EU for supposed free trade and that lost expense will easily pay for WTO tariffs.
  Anyway I see WTO highly unlikely, I also find it unlikely both parties haven’t already agreed, I just find the whole thing like when a car salesman has to go and ask his boss because the deal is so good, same thing as when a window sales person has to ring the boss. It just reeks of staged event. To help sell it to the public.
  The trouble is, folks have woken up to the fact that all the EU top jobs are un elected and the EU is totally disconnected with the public, and that’s still not fixed, Look at France and other EU countries yellow vest etc. Until the public all over the EU get more of a say the whole thing is in jeopardy.
  Remember if they make it look easy to leave, all the big contributors will want to leave eventually, it has to look impossible and it has to look bad for everyone.
• 28 mousecatcher007 December 15, 2018, 1:01 am

  Is there any more pointless activity known to mankind than debating Brexit? ‘Dialogue of the deaf’ doesn’t even come close.
• 29 dearieme December 15, 2018, 1:02 am

  “Scotland freezes threshold for higher-rate income tax”: how does this work? If you move house to Berwick or Carlisle do you start being taxed at English rates? Will a pied-à-terre be enough? Or will people have to wangle being employed “by the firm’s English branch”? How about people who work in the place called “virtual” (I know a youngster with such a contract of employment)?

  Will this provide yet another incentive to avoid being an employee and to become a contractor with one’s own company registered in England and Wales?

  I envisage families with (say) lower paid Mum living in Scotland, with the university-bound children, with higher paid Dad living in England, ten yards away. What fun. It’ll be like the old days when people walked into England so that they could enter a pub on a Sunday. Or the less old days, when people would cross the border in the other direction so that they could use a Bank or Building Society at the weekend.
• 30 Hariseldon December 15, 2018, 1:11 am

  But isn’t the significance of Irish Border largely a factor of the DUP supporting a minority government?

  Without that influence I rather suspect that the border would be less of an issue.

  If we do have a default hard exit, then Ireland will probably end up with a border of sorts and will have ticked off the UK in the meantime….
• 31 Beb December 15, 2018, 10:03 am

  ” those 40-odd guys who can’t muster up enough votes to unseat the UK’s most ineffectual leader since Hugh Laurie’s Prince Regent”

  To be fair to the Brexiteers, they mustered 100 no confidence votes.
  And to be fair to Ms May, I’m not sure who could have done better. The labour party havent exactly being doing their job as opposition. I say this as a left of centre voter.

  On good days I can be quite positive about the Brexit process. Parliament have 2 jobs, to do what is best for the country, and carry out the will of the people. I suppose this is what happens when they come into conflict, this is democracy in action, and I have to wonder how many countries would have fallen into civil war at this point, eventually parliament will pull it together and pull us back from the precipice etc, etc.

  On the bad days, not so much.

  I’m broadly with you on the rest of the post, we do need a 2nd referendum. Why oh why will neither of the 2 major parties offer us one? It isn’t like any of them can offer an achievable vision of Brexit that a majority of them can get behind.
• 32 Neverland December 15, 2018, 10:12 am

  I’m just surprised that everyone who still wants to leave doesn’t realise that the way Ireland is pushing us around now will be the way the UK gets pushed around by every big economic block in the future…

  …and for those who are keen on new trade deals those will also include exceptions to UK immigration rules also
• 33 JimJim December 15, 2018, 10:24 am

  From the comments I have read above, the storm of argument will continue to rage for some time.
  I have some questions.
  1 Is there evidence that it has already hurt our economy?
  2 If so will it continue to do so?
  3 Do we still believe the pain is worth the gain?
  4 Are the very people who voted for it suffering the most?
  5 Is this ironic, or just and fair?
  6 If 4 is not true what would be just?

  I pose these as rhetoric obviously but feel free to reply if you must!

  A second vote, well, from the confines of a city, it might be a dangerous thing when all the angry people who live around me in the countryside lose faith in democracy and descend upon the capitol. If it happens, you might want a vote to see if you want a second vote to make sure we may have changed our minds first? (I say this with tongue in cheek)
  Personally I just want it over now, as quick as possible so we can get back on with the new status quo. Interesting times are for the birds! Lord give me stability.
  🙂
• 34 Ben December 15, 2018, 10:41 am

  @neverland

  Yes, I believe the EU made a mistake when it said we couldn’t negotiate trade agreements with other countries. I would love (maybe not the right word) to see the proposed US trade agreement. And I’m sure the Brexiteers would love it even more.
• 35 diy investor (uk) December 15, 2018, 11:04 am

  Thanks TI.

  I remember a lengthy comment from you to my Brexit Fudge article in July but nothing since then I’m afraid.

  I am not holding on to Lancaster btw, just saying I think this sums up what I thought I was voting for in 2016 and yes, a good starting position for the negotiations… an end to free movement, ability to strike our own trade deals, an end to the single market and customs union and an understanding on the nature of our trading relationship after leaving.

  The PM should never have conceded the backstop arrangement last December but I guess she was desperate to show progress and conclude phase 1.

  Since this point she had a car crash GE and subsequently hung on to her position but moved towards Chequers under the increasing influence of Robbins and has aimed for a half-in, half-out arrangement which ended up with the current ‘deal’.

  Wherever we end up from here will be a disaster in my opinion because the political establishment at Westminster have refused to embrace or accept the decision to leave. This failure to uphold democracy will have far-reaching consequences far greater than any economic downside arising from leaving the EU.

  My other big concern is the time and energy consumed by Brexit which has left little time for any other important business. How they will address climate change for example really makes me wonder if this lot/system are fit for purpose.

  Finally, likewise have a good Christmas and all best wishes to you and your readers for the New Year…it’s gonna be interesting for sure!
• 36 Stephen Almond December 15, 2018, 11:15 am

  “It’s very simple. So simple that if you still don’t understand that then I suppose you don’t want to.”

  Very smug! Our civil service doesn’t have 7 presidents, nor does it endlessly appear front and centre in all negotiations and deals.
• 37 Neverland December 15, 2018, 11:24 am

  @diyinvestor

  You are falling into the common leaver trap of forgetting that treaties involve more than one country and that other countries apart from the uk have their own internal politics

  Theresa May’s policy for implementing Brexit was flawed and naive from the very beginning

  Lancaster House was just another illustration of how naive the Brexit case is

  People who understood how the EU worked just left eg Ivan Rogers

  Messy compromise was always inevitable.

  The EU will always pick the interests of a member (Ireland) versus a non member (UK) – and it will continue to do so at every stage going forwards
• 38 The Investor December 15, 2018, 11:38 am

  @Steve — The yellow jersey riots in France are a direct response to Macron’s national policies! Oh the irony. Hand waving at anything dodgy that happens and blaming the EU is how we got in this mess.
• 39 The Investor December 15, 2018, 11:41 am

  @Steven — Well you can call it smug if you like. I make no claim I’m a genius for understanding the obvious. 🙂 As for the presidents front and centre, hang on I thought it was murky and untransparent? Can’t win. 🙁
• 40 Norfolk December 15, 2018, 11:43 am

  Brexit confidence reminds me of learning to drive, once you’ve mastered the basics, you think you’re a genius and anything seems possible now. Older heads try to impart wisdom, reminding you that just because you haven’t seen something doesn’t mean it isn’t possible, you are responsible for operating a machine that can kill, so you can crash and your world can change for that. But many will still believe they would never crash because they’re too good for that, so effectively then, crashing is not real to them.

  This confidence born of ignorance, (the lack of life experience to form even a little wisdom) means any attempts at reason is a waste of time, they just have to crash to have a chance of maybe then accepting it’s a reality and then reality cannot be avoided, no matter how much faith you have in unicorns.
• 41 Steve December 15, 2018, 12:16 pm

  So how come the yellow vests are going to other countries then, the problem arises when the people vote is someone who says they will do xyz and that suddenly disappears because either the EU don’t allow it or other reasons, like Jeremy corbyn for instance, he says he will take back the utilities and trains etc, stay in the EU etc but the EU don’t allow that!
  Same as Cameron, reduce immigration, but the EU don’t allow it. Fake democracy, once you’ve seen it you can’t forget.
• 42 diy investor (uk) December 15, 2018, 12:41 pm

  @Neverland

  Thanks but I understand the EU 27 have their internal policies and agendas. I also understand what ‘leave’ would look like and the path we have taken so far looks nothing like close.

  If anyone is falling into a trap, it is remainers who either settle for some sort of BRINO or who want to reverse the referendum and think somehow that these options would be politically acceptable.

  The 2016 referendum must be respected and politicians who fail to understand this will deserve the consequences. I really hope I am wrong but I fear we are heading for a crisis of epic proportions.
• 43 MrOptimistic December 15, 2018, 12:51 pm

  The last thing I want is a government that does what I say just because I said it. I want a government of people who can take a wider more long term view of what is, on balance, best for all of us with access to alternative perspectives, expertise and advice not available to me. So I am not keen on binding rererenda. Unfortunately, I don’t see the current occupants of the House as being of adequate capability, irrespective of party.
  Brexit, of itself, is not self-immolation but it is a radical change which needs careful and thorough management. That the country might be worse off in strictly economic terms at least for sometime isn’t a clinching argument if the driving factors are political, such as fear of an expanding hedgemony ( think
  European defence force and fiscal alignment), lack of ability to chuck the leaders out every now and again ( loss of control of our own destiny), inability to modulate the cultural effects of someone else’s cultural biases ( vision of a united Europe and encouragement of the flow of people for homogenisation).
  No point banging on about economic consequences as if it was the only factor.
  Few in the UK think if themselves as European in the way that eg the Dutch do. Ironically, the Scots and Irish fervently maintain their separateness even within the Union (whilst decrying being dragged out if the European Union).
  We could have helped ourselves by modifying the distribution of the social wage but this was not addressed (except for a brief consideration of national of cards – that went well).
  Wondering how our health service ensures those not entitled to care are made to pay, wondering about the cost of educating children who can’t speak English, of providing translators in court etc etc etc risk being labelled blimps of Proto-racists and the BBC held no truck with that sort of thing.
  For example, the day immigration from Romania was allowed the BBC TV were on hand at Luton airport to interview the first arrival. He said he was here to find a job. Oh what chuckles. Oddly, the BBC didn’t revisit to do an audit anytime after.
  This dismissal of legimate concerns has cause the build up of anger and resentment we now are dealing with. If people feel concerned then their concerns are legitimate, even if misplaced.
  Well done every!
• 44 Ben December 15, 2018, 1:08 pm

  @diy investor
  “The 2016 referendum must be respected and politicians who fail to understand this will deserve the consequences”

  The problem with that vote was that it wasn’t /for/ anything. It was against the EU yes. But didn’t actually resolve a way forward. Thus the current mess. Where the largest bloc that actually agrees on anything substantive is the remain bloc.

  Added to that, the fact that the leave campaign promised a land of milk and honey, where we could have all the benefits of remaining in the EU. Without any of the draw backs.
  We now have an actual realistic proposal on the table, shouldn’t we, the people have a say on that? I would say that anything less were undemocratic.
• 45 Haphazard December 15, 2018, 1:11 pm

  @Keith thanks for pointing out the fascinating speech by Sir Ivan Rogers. He presumably knows what he is talking about, having served as the UK’s representative (=ambassador) to the EU. I think his letter to his staff, on resigning, encouraged them to keep trying to “speak truth to power”. His speech comes across as an extended version of that theme.
• 46 bob December 15, 2018, 1:33 pm

  I love this blog, agree with most of what you write but your Bovis or Halfords comparisons with UK fishing are pretty fatuous.

  If Halfords or Bovis had outlets up and down the country in some of the UK’s most remote communities where there is little if any opportunity of other employment. If Bovis or Halfords had been employing families in these communities for generations and they were so embedded in the fabric of these places then you might have a point. But they aren’t and you don’t.

  Go to Leverburgh, Peterhead or Castlebay harbour and tell the fishermen that the CFP debate is irrelevant because their industry represents a tiny fraction of UK GDP….. Like much of the Brexit debate, this issue runs deeper than numbers, its about people’s livelihoods, their heritage and how they feel.
  I don’t claim to know in all honesty whether the CFP represents a good deal for the UK but I do know that there are many highly respected persons within that industry who think that the UK gets a pretty weak deal.
• 47 Vanguardfan December 15, 2018, 2:10 pm

  I genuinely don’t understand why leavers are so upset with May’s withdrawal agreement. I think it’s probably close to the best that could be done, if you want a) to leave the EU b) to withdraw from FoM c) do not want a hard border in Ireland and d) want to retain the best trading conditions with the EU possible given the previous 3 desires.
  So when people say ‘this is not the leave I wanted’, I am left wondering really what people did want? What would it actually look like? If it’s basically all of the above but you’re not bothered about d), then what do you think are the consequences of that?

  I also think that the WA and the political declaration still leave everything to play for in relation to the future arrangements with the EU. So we aren’t even fighting over a definitive ‘deal’ yet.

  I’d prefer to remain, but if one does accept that we should leave (and I think in general remainers underestimate the problems with not carrying out the referendum result) then this doesn’t seem the worst outcome, not by a long way. Compromise is inevitable.
• 48 Norfolk December 15, 2018, 2:30 pm

  ‘I genuinely don’t understand why leavers are so upset’

  It’s because they were promised the earth, right now, at no cost (fings can only get be’aah) and now for some unknown reason its not happening. But they’d believed, so all your facts, expertise or logic might as well be another language/planet, it’s no contest vs blind faith.
• 49 diy investor (uk) December 15, 2018, 2:32 pm

  @Ben
  “The problem with that vote was that it wasn’t /for/ anything. It was against the EU yes. But didn’t actually resolve a way forward. Thus the current mess”
  Sorry but the vote was simply to leave the EU. It has been interpreted as ‘leave with a deal which protects jobs etc’ and May and her close inner circle have ruled out no deal. This is why the ship is sailing towards the rocks.

  If people who actually believed in leaving and respected the public vote were in charge of this process we certainly would not be where we are now.
• 50 Vanguardfan December 15, 2018, 2:44 pm

  @norfolk, it’s the leavers I’d like to hear from, not people assuming they know what leavers wanted….
  @diyinvestor – so, is the problem with May’s deal that it tries to save jobs? Does ‘believing in leaving’ mean that you don’t care what happens to people’s jobs? (Genuine question).
• 51 MrOptimistic December 15, 2018, 2:45 pm

  @Vanguardfan. It’s not a withdrawal agreement really, it’s setting the boundaries the detailed and meaningful negotiations to come. That’s why sound bites from the Spanish on Gibraltar and the French in fisheries have touched a nerve. Add to that the support shown to Eire by the EU and then the backstop lock in mechanism and it should become more apparent! May’s deal is appalling when seen as a starting point and not the end.
• 52 Ben December 15, 2018, 2:51 pm

  @diy investor
  Well as I said the vote wasn’t for anything, so yes that can be interpreted a million different ways, and is being. May’s is no less legitimate than yours or mine.

  I very much doubt any brexiteer would have done better, and your argument is starting to sound very ‘no true Scotsman’, May’s ‘solution’ is respecting the public vote. Even if neither you nor I are happy about it.
• 53 Vanguardfan December 15, 2018, 2:51 pm

  My impression of May is that she is respecting the public vote. You seem to be saying that withdrawing on any agreed terms with the EU is somehow not actually leaving. I don’t get that, sorry. How does the alternative work?
• 54 MrOptimistic December 15, 2018, 2:55 pm

  @Vanguardfan. May’s deal is only the starting point, it sets out the basis and constraints for the real negotiations which will next happen. That’s why the sound bites from the Spanish on Gibraltar and French on fisheries have touched nerves. They think it’s open season and everything and anything is on the table. Then there’s the manifest backing of the EU for Eire which includes the backstop: nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So May’s deal invites you to go to the negotiation table with your hands tied and the requirement to potentially offer everything up and you can’t leave until the Irish border is sorted to Eire’s satisfaction.
  I voted Remain but through clenched teeth! Hope this gives one perspective the leavers mentality.
  The deal is the starting point. Get on that train and you’ll get offer when others decide you can go.
• 55 Vanguardfan December 15, 2018, 2:55 pm

  @mroptimistic, yes I understand the WA is just that, and the actual trade deal remains to be negotiated. I’m not clear about the rest of your post, whatever point is obvious to you is not obvious to me, can you explain? (Clearly I’m being slow here, but I do want to try to understand).
• 56 MrOptimistic December 15, 2018, 3:03 pm

  Sorry, seem to having trouble with this site. Didn’t mean to double post. Wonder if TI us pulling some levers!
  First off its why accepting the deal is not actually leaving, post #53. The rest of my duplicated ramble is to anticipate the negotiating position we will be in if we start on that basis. I must say it does seem clear to me. Good you repeat your question please, I thought I provided the perspective 🙂
• 57 Vanguardfan December 15, 2018, 3:04 pm

  Thanks. Yes of course the trade negotiations are going to be painful and we do not have a strong position. And of course Ireland is still an island. These are, to me, reasons why leaving is a bad idea. How does ‘proper’ leaving (not May’s deal) make this better? (To leavers).
• 58 MrOptimistic December 15, 2018, 3:04 pm

  Figured it out, have to hit next comments!
• 59 MrOptimistic December 15, 2018, 3:09 pm

  Yes but leavers have decided on that already. Now the limitative May’s deal are an obstacle that will prevent achieving the end point they envisaand anticipate. In that they are correct as far as it goes. No point saying but we think you’ll be worse off than if you accept it, and btw even more worse off than if you had voted remain like me. Those decisions have been made, and not for strictly economic reasons, as I tried to explain about 700 posts ago ( not all mine).
• 60 FI Warrior December 15, 2018, 3:33 pm

  A lot of comments these days seem to be warning that if the will of half the people is not respected by implementing the most extreme option, (vs even some compromise) then there could well be ‘chaos’ when they’re disappointed. Even if that’s not a veiled threat, then Ok, what of the will of the other half of the people; why are they worth less? Also who’s to say there wont be violence on the streets anyway with more years of austerity under the same sovereign rulers who specifically chose to do that and still were voted in again to carry on with it? (People get angry when they are afraid and/or in pain, irrespective of inclusion within the EU club)

  Maybe, when out of the EU, any fall in quality of life will be acceptable because people will understand that it was the price they chose to pay to be free and so will be happy to bear it. It might sound counter-intuitive to ask for more pain, but there is an undeniable precedence here, with the rulers promising endless austerity for the vulnerable half of the population being re-elected just recently.

  What price pride? Lots of former British colonies fought for independence knowing full well that they would be probably be poor forever after in a shark tank world where trade is settled with playground bully rules. (China is the second most powerful nation and yet is being given serious grief by the steriodal US right now, so what’re the UK’s chances?)
  The question you could ask is: ”What countries are the boat people coming from, can you eat pride, why do they leave if being a free, poor minnow out of a trade bloc is fine?”
• 61 Vanguardfan December 15, 2018, 3:36 pm

  Ok. Of course there were more than just economic reasons behind the Leave vote, as there were also for remain. I’m not sure that ‘leave, even though there may be an economic cost’ is the same thing as ‘leave in disarray, no matter what the cost’. And I do not accept that leaving is not leaving. It’s clear that by agreeing the withdrawal agreement we become a third country and are by definition outside the EU legally. Ergo, we have left.
  My worry is that if May’s deal is unacceptable, it seems that the range of actually available options that are acceptable to leavers is very very small, and if it exists at all, comprises only the most damaging of all options (in fact it’s almost as though it’s authenticity will be proved by how much damage it causes). It’s really hard to believe that people (of the person in the street variety) actually do want chaos and instability. And if they do, then they will obviously lose the sympathy of the pragmatic remainers who would actually prefer to find a way to honour the result, and leave the EU in the least damaging manner.
• 62 The Investor December 15, 2018, 4:47 pm

  @bob — Cheers for thoughts. If it’s any consolation (I suspect the opposite!) my “fatuous” comparison wasn’t made glibly, it was made pointedly.

  Of course I understand that for individuals affected, change in any industry is important.

  It’s equally true, of course, of the three million EU citizens working in the UK, or the c.180,000 people directly employed by the UK auto industry whose livelihoods / way of life is threatened by Brexit, to name but couple of populations. (Versus just c.24,000 in fishing.)

  I choose to compare it to Halfords because to me this sums up the Leave rhetoric. It’s mostly narrative and colour — your own reply cites a few evocative and remote place names, which elicit sympathy even from me more than bald stats about *many millions of people* potentially threatened by a poor/no trade deal.

  Such colour doesn’t stand up to statistical / intellectual scrutiny. You have a point though in that it’s a more compelling story; to my mind it’s a big reason why Leave won.

  It’s for this sort of reason that people like me think the Leave rhetoric is generally backwards looking. The UK earns many many billions in invisible overseas earnings. The City generates c.10% of tax revenues (from memory). Immigrants are on balance net contributors to the State. Britain’s future lies in high-end intellectual/intangible services, not in making ships again as some Brexiteers would like.

  None of this sounds as good as “control of our waters” and “protecting our fisherman”, with all the cultural bells and whistles that come with that, and that I am certainly not immune to. (I’m a hobbyist historian!)

  Besides the rhetoric, fact is the world changes. Politicians need to be looking to the national good, not to some sort of national policy by way of heritage industry.

  In my lifetime the number of people employed in the coal industry went from over 250,000 to <2,000 today. Painful for all involved. People and communities ultimately adapt or die.

  The idea that 24,000 people in a dying and tiny industry should take up such a large swathe of the debate (not least because they are already existing in a 30 year status quo) is utterly dispiriting to me and another sign of how anti-rational this project is.

  Anyway, we can agree to disagree, glad you normally find something you like here! 🙂
• 63 diy investor (uk) December 15, 2018, 5:36 pm

  @Vanguardfan
  “so, is the problem with May’s deal that it tries to save jobs? Does ‘believing in leaving’ mean that you don’t care what happens to people’s jobs?”

  I am from a traditional working class background growing up in a coal-mining community in South Yorkshire in the 1950s so of course I care what happens to jobs.

  If you care to read my latest article ‘Another Fine Mess Olly’, I try to explain in detail the problems with the current deal.

  I guess any sensible government would have prepared a fall back position based on WTO after the referendum. To negotiate without this option would be pure folly and May did say once or twice that no deal would be better than a bad deal but clearly she did not mean it and more importantly, the EU knew she did not mean it.

  A good deal would have been best but a negotiated deal on WTO is the next best option considering where we have ended up.

  I understand it would be far from ideal but I really do not think another referendum is the answer. It would take months to set up, both sides would be making all kinds of claims just as before, the actual question to ask is unclear but I suspect the establishment would be happy with a binary choice – May’s deal or Remain, and how would that go down? Remain win with 95% of the vote on a 25% turnout…utter chaos.

  I really do not know how things will pan out. I hope it can be resolved soon because there are many other matters crying out for attention and for the past 3 years Brexit has dominated the agenda.
• 64 Hospitaller December 15, 2018, 5:56 pm

  A few thoughts on “Brexit”:

  1) I think what will happen next is along the following lines. Firstly, Parliament will get to vote on the options of May’s deal and EFTA (as close to an off-the-shelf option). If it is then confirmed that there is indeed no Parliamentary majority for either of these, then MPs will be asked to vote on a new referendum, choosing between Remain and Leave (with no deal).

  2) A second referendum may go Remain or Leave’s way. If rationality was present, there would be no contest and Remain would win but there are an awful lot of people around who boasted to their pals that they voted Leave last time and they find it very difficult to admit to a change of heart. Sorry is the hardest word etc., I am okay with a new referendum, regardless. If we are going to make ourselves poorer, make our personal lives less easy, quite possibly restart the “Troubles” (read: war) re Northern Ireland, then it has to be a decision taken with eyes fully wide open.

  3) Our political system has now developed a specific problem which is hugely anti-democratic and will need sorting sooner rather than later. Unable (good) to get their political wishes enacted by the normal means, extremists have invaded the membership of both the Labour Party (Momentum) and the Conservative Party (overwhelming recent membership entryism by ex-UKippers). That is why the ERG have been so keen to get May out because, if she goes, they know they are bound to get their hard Brexit candidate “chosen”. The idea is to get to choose the party Leader before anyone else gets a say. This is a very unhealthy situation.
• 65 MrOptimistic December 15, 2018, 6:03 pm

  High probability Labour table a no confidence motion against TM ( not the government) on Monday I have heard. If the DUP sit on their hands or cross the chamber and a fraction of the 100+ Conservative MPs do the same then it will get interesting as all the chips will be in the air. Causes the Cons all sorts of turmoil, displays them playing internal politics while Rome burns, ensures their next leader inherits a poisoned chalice. Have convinced myself it must happen!
  The EU will not countenance a fresh start so the only direction of travel is then another referendum.
  This might go on a bit.
• 66 two shillings and sixpence December 15, 2018, 6:37 pm

  Enjoyed the Bloomberg link “ How Ireland outwitted Britain on Brexit “ Only time will tell if they have pushed to far. Part of me feels that the EU will give in but so far i have been proved wrong.

  The Irish Gov have stuck with the Backstop as without it there will be a hard border. I know there have been X and Y options to prevent a hard border but i can see any of them working other than Northern Ireland staying in the customs union. Nor do i see the UK trying to solve the boarder issue unless under the greatest pressure hence the back stop.

  Perhaps the EU have stood by Ireland as they could see at some point in the future that a hard border could result in Ireland being the next country to leave the EU.
• 67 ZXSpectrum48k December 15, 2018, 6:55 pm

  Sovereignty seems a key issue for many Leavers. I’m just sceptical that this sort of sovereignty exists in any practical sense. The globalized world is massively interconnected and interdependent. This undermines the ability of any single state to govern its economy (the power of megacorps, free flowing capital). It makes it difficult for states to assert laws or to trade without conforming to the regulatory standards of major trading blocs. It’s weakens a states ability to tackle transnational problems like climate change and terrorism; and to protect the national ‘culture’ from outside influences. Sovereignty used to mean independence; now realistically it means learning to manage dependencies. I don’t understand why returning sovereignty to Westminster will magically improve matters.

  Moreover, I don’t see why many Leavers are so keen on the crash out that the Tory Ultras assert as their vision of a no-deal Brexit. This is a nasty amalgam of extreme interests. Aristocrats that see themselves as born to run the UK and hate the EU that took away their rightful power; anti-statist libertarians for whom the supranational EU is a natural enemy; and free-market disaster capitalists who want a bonfire of regulations and worker’s rights, and low taxes, preferably followed by some asset stripping and privatising the NHS.

  For the life of me, I cannot see this will improve the situation for those ‘left behind’ or actually 90%+ of the population. There will be no “taking back control” for the population; the serfs will remain serfs but the faces of the overlords will have changed.
• 68 Mr Bajokoses December 15, 2018, 7:17 pm

  @diy investor You are strangely silent on the subject of Ireland. What’s your solution? As such a strong advocate of Leave I presume you have one…
• 69 Jura December 15, 2018, 7:35 pm

  I’m with you regarding sovereignty. The whole ‘taking back control’ thing mystifies me. I’m not aware of any EU imposed legalisation that has negatively impacted upon me personally. I am aware of positive impacts (EWTD for example). What makes people believe that UK politicians have their best interests at heart?- you’re kidding yourself on! As a Scot I feel equally (un)happy with May, Gove, Hunt et al as I do about being governed by the European Parliament. When we ‘take back control’ will the streets become paved with gold and free jelly be available for all? The country will still have all the problems it has now, and more.
• 70 William Baker December 15, 2018, 7:36 pm

  Vanguard Personal Investor UK have just published an update in respect of their pension launch along with a good pension calculator. Envisage launch will be early 2019 as product is being tested prior to launch.
• 71 The Investor December 15, 2018, 7:47 pm

  @Jura — As I said above, it sounds better. That’s really just about it. I’d be ready to be called smug again, except in 30 months I’ve still not heard any concrete examples of truly poor / onerous EU law except freedom of movement, if you don’t like that kind of thing.

  Even Johnson trotted out the bendy banana shibboleth and he’s supposed to be the brainy one.

  Literally 2.5 years of everyday Brexit headline news — and they’ve come up with nothing. Just inaccurate claims like the yellow jersey connection earlier on the thread.

  To us it’s obviously sound and fury signifying nothing; to them we’re just not listening.

  A toxic combination. 🙁
• 72 diy investor (uk) December 15, 2018, 8:24 pm

  @Mr Bajokosis
  “You are strangely silent on the subject of Ireland. What’s your solution? As such a strong advocate of Leave I presume you have one…”
  Strangely this matter was never really aired in the debates leading up to the vote. I assume nobody realised it could be the issue it has now become. Of course Mr Varadkar came to power in mid 2017 and strangely, shortly thereafter, the border came into play and was quickly latched on to by the EU negotiators who saw the advantages it could offer.

  The EU are very good at exploiting an advantage and I am sure it has served them well after we foolishly agreed to the backstop last December.

  Where there is a will, I am sure there is a way to resolve this issue but why would the EU wish to find a solution when it suits them better to maintain their advantage.

  I believe the use of border trade agents are very common in other areas of the EU so this combined with a range of other measures already agreed in the WA and the fact that checks do not need to be carried out at the actual border could resolve the whole issue. I understand exports from NI to the EU account for less than 0.1% of EU trade so I just question the integrity of the EU on this issue.
• 73 MrOptimistic December 15, 2018, 9:29 pm

  @TI. Don’t suppose you watched the TV series The Prisoner back whenever it was. Or Jimi Hendrix singing Freedom at the Isle of Wight. There is a psychological element to things. For some people the notion of living in a cell is intolerable even if it is comfortable and there really is no need, or advantage, in leaving. Perhaps the sound and fury is communication in a language you dont understand? It’s not that people are not listening to each other, it’s that the different perspectives make it unintelligible.
  Ever watched a science fiction film where the protagonists rebel against a secure and comfortable order to gain ‘freedom’. Did it make sense as you watched it and the happy ending was the ‘heros’ triumphed and escaped? Ok, The Matrix. The point is, it’s a fantasy, but the fantasy draws on something within us which we believe, perhaps stupidly, transcends and defines us. It’s that sort of thing you need to factor in to your analysis.
• 74 A long term investor December 15, 2018, 9:35 pm

  You might want to read this for a more mature view of Brexit (it’s a bit lengthy, but if you’ve just been exposed to the crass sound-bites, you may find it a bit of an eye-opener):

  https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/
  The UK’s former representative to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers spoke at the invitation of the University of Liverpool’
• 75 A long term investor December 15, 2018, 9:44 pm

  Why does no one ever ask the question ‘where will we put the border posts’ when discussing the Irish border?

  We don’t want freedom of movement, so we MUST have border posts somewhere between us and the Republic. Either between Ireland and Northern Ireland, or on the UK mainland.

  No border posts, no way to stop EU nationals freely entering the UK.

  The whole level of debate on Brexit makes me laugh. Very few, and I alas include senior UK politicians, seem to understand anything about the EU. There’s no point arguing with ourselves. We should be arguing with the other 27.

  The only saving grace I see? If we have no deal, the Tory party is finished. If we don’t have no deal, the Tory party is finished. So something to look forward to.
• 76 The Investor December 15, 2018, 10:05 pm

  It’s not that people are not listening to each other, it’s that the different perspectives make it unintelligible.

  Yes I think you’re right. I’ve spent some time trying to understand the emotions behind Brexit (because to me there is very little logic to it, except purist sovereignty (but in reality a loss of power / force projection), a potential end to Freedom of Movement if you hate it, and related cultural issues that range from understandable to the dark side, which are obviously personal to each of us.)

  The closest read I think is the ‘local/traditional/inward versus globalist/independent/outward’ dichotomy that also perhaps explains Red State Trump and similar conservatives versus the vast bulk of the Liberal/coastal elites in the US.

  These tendencies have probably always been with us but in the past we all lived together. But for the past 30-50 years we’ve been mobile, both socially and geographically. We’ve moved to where we feel most comfortable, and we’ve married people more like us, both educationally and culturally/economically. (Rather than meeting in the church or local pub, the factory owner marrying the secretary, etc).

  Hence the stereotype of the bright young things going to the big cities (which are all pro-Remain) and hanging out with people and never meeting any Leave voters, and the people in the non-Uni cities/ London feeling left behind (but also perhaps feeling representative of the ‘real’ people) in the rest of the country.

  A Leaver may lambast me for reducing his/her position to a binary categorization here, but remember I’m doing the same for Remainers, too, and I’m reaching for a solution. Yes of course we’re all a mix. I also feel some of that local/national pride/whatever, just like most of them have some appreciation for self-determination/other cultures/whatever.

  It’s where the balance lies that seems to throw the emotional switch.

  Jonathan Haidt is one of the most referenced thinkers on this, though I have to confess I’ve only read/watched stuff about what he’s written, not the source itself (https://amzn.to/2RXK0yi).
• 77 Jonathan December 15, 2018, 11:15 pm

  At this moment in time, there are two essential questions for commentators: how and why did the country get where we are, and how do we find a resolution from here that is attainable and not too damaging to the UK as a whole.

  The second needs people to make decisions. Theresa May needs to have the guts to test her proposal with a Commons vote (most people think it would lack sufficient support) and Jeremy Corbyn needs the guts to see if a no confidence motion could succeed and force a change of government either internally or via a general election (also likely to fail, though I suppose further chaos could swing the balance). That would force parliament to identify a way forward that does have majority support, which would seem to predict a second referendum since the only obvious alternative is the no-deal Brexit. While it may not currently be possible to predict the outcome of a referendum, at least if detailed proposals rather than speculative fictions were on the table we would end up with a direction.

  The question of how we got where we are already needs a whole book to address (and it will no doubt be the subject of many in due course). I see one of the biggest as the fact that Cameron called a referendum which created a “democratic mandate” that had no precedent for a country which is a representative democracy; the outcome wasn’t a policy of either the governing party or the opposition but neither felt they could deny it even though most MPs thought it wasn’t in the national interest and neither did they have any idea what it had to look like. Then there has been the failure to realise that it needed negotiating and negotiations involve two sides with the UK the weak partner; the outcome will inevitably lead to compromises on both sides and with the benefit of hindsight May perhaps started with the wrong “red lines”. But underlying everything was the failure of Cameron to realise that there was an appetite among voters to challenge the status quo, and that if they were told the bogeyman was the EU then many would vote against it.
• 78 Fremantle December 15, 2018, 11:42 pm

  “@Steve — The yellow jersey riots in France are a direct response to Macron’s national policies!”

  My understanding that this was a good old simple grass roots tax revolt. For years the tax system favoured diesel, and now it doesn’t. Given that transport is a significant cost for poorer non urban French, they protested.

  As with many of these public protests, they get out of control through exuberance of youth, influence of co-opters and over reaction by the state.
• 79 MrOptimistic December 16, 2018, 12:26 am

  The trouble is it is very easy to be ‘against’ something, and once a popular movement starts it attracts all manner of frustrations and discontents to it even though they may have nothing in common. But when you are threatened, you group together. Then the genetics kick in, the same genetics which dispose us to favour family and nationality, or even, inexplicably a football club. So we lock shields and take courage from our solidarity. Anti-capitalist, anti-this that and the other.
  Not so easy to bridge gaps and agree a solution which is distasteful, in some respects, to all . But that’s what our politicians are supposed to do and currently they are failing us.
• 80 The Rhino December 16, 2018, 2:14 am

  Everything by Haidt is good, but the righteous mind is critical reading with respect to Brexit. Get it read!
• 81 Neverland December 16, 2018, 11:01 am

  @DIY investor

  ” I understand exports from NI to the EU account for less than 0.1% of EU trade so I just question the integrity of the EU on this issue.”

  You understand is superficial and wrong.

  The Republic of Ireland is Northern Ireland’s largest export market. It is estimated that 21% of businesses in Northern Ireland either exported to or imported from the Republic of Ireland in 2016. Source: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8173#fullreport

  Basically your “solution” throws the economy of all of Ireland under a bus for your own political aims.

  Unsurprising 55% of people in Northern Ireland voted to remain in 2016.

  The EU is acting to protect the economy of a member state from the actions of a non-member state.

  It is one of the benefits of EU membership….
• 82 TahiPanasDua December 16, 2018, 11:10 am

  I am sure that The Investor is speaking tongue in cheek when he mentions the desire of some to return to blue British passports. Given the knowledgeable readers of this website, there is surely no need to inform anyone here that there is no such thing as a European passport. Our current documents are British passports and the colour could have been changed to blue at any time.
• 83 RetiredinLondon December 16, 2018, 12:56 pm

  The EU project is slowly but surely collapsing. You can not have a political union across countries that differ vastly culturally and economically. This is why you are seeing a rise in populist movements and also why Europe continues to be the worst economically performing region in the world.

  Why would we in the UK want to be part of this? Surely its better to have full control of our destiny despite any short term pain? Also i fear if we are still part of the EU and say a country like Italy goes bust, we would have to pay more into any sort of bail out. Isn’t it better to just leave (deal (as long as its good) or no deal) so that we don’t have to be an even bigger net contributor into the EU project?

  Most voters of leave are generally unhappy with their standard of living and want to see some change. Leaving the EU will trigger that change and all facts point to the people left behind being better off in the long run outside of the EU.

  I live in London and have worked here too in financial services. I had voted to leave because i can see the writing on the wall for the EU – they will collapse. We simply should distance ourselves from this collapse as much as possible and this is a great opportunity to do so. Do not blow it.
• 84 Lord December 16, 2018, 1:39 pm

  @RetiredinLondon

  We should quickly destroy our own economy on the off chance that the EU may perhaps, or perhaps might not, implode one day in the unspecified and vague future.

  As the UK is the first country to leave the EU what possible facts can you refer to? There are no other cases.
• 85 ZXSpectrum48k December 16, 2018, 1:56 pm

  @RetiredinLondon. The UK has provided a total of €6.5bn via the EU for two bailouts: €3bn for Ireland in Nov-10 and €3.5bn for Portugal in May-11. The UK made further contributions via the IMF. In addition, in 2010, the UK provided €3.9bn in bilateral loans to Ireland. In 2015, when the third Greek bailout was agreed, it was also given a bridging loan of €7bn from an EU-wide fund. The UK was have been indirectly liable for around €855mm of the loan, through its share in the EU Budget. This has been repaid. It should be clear that these are utterly negligible sums, not even €10bn in total.

  If the Euro broke up, say via Italian exit, the liabilities in that situation are most clearly observable through the Eurosystem’s TARGET2 balances. Germany is the largest creditor at just under €900bn. To be blunt there is only one large country in the eurozone that is causing significant imbalances: Germany. Germany’s runs a huge current account surplus with the rest of the eurozone and this has resulted in their fiscal deficit reducing over the past two decades in what is virtually a perfect mirror image of how the Italian deficit has risen.

  I agree that the eurozone is unsustainable in it’s current format but I cannot agree that the UK being part of the EU makes us somehow more liable. In 2011 the EU leaders agreed that the UK and other EU countries which are not in the eurozone, should not be part of any future bailouts. The 2015 and 2016 deals further underlined this. The ECB would cover any liabilities that would have fallen to the UK or other non-eurozone countries. Of course, The UK clearly would suffer economically very badly from a eurozone collapse whether we are in/out.
• 86 Grislybear December 16, 2018, 2:53 pm

  Its easy to see why some people voted to leave thr EU, £350 million a week for the NHS and everything would stay the same. I would have voted for that myself but I knew Johnson, Farage and Gove were liars.
  @ diy investor, I dont recall seeing 500,000 jobs gone by Christmas on the side of a bus during the referendum cant imagine many takers for that.
  By the way I wonder how Jacob Rees Mogg is getting on with shifting his business interest to Dublin, how Nigel Lawson is getting on with his French Residency application and how Farage is getting on with his German passport application. You can say what you want about those boys but they know which side their bread is buttered.
• 87 diy investor (uk) December 16, 2018, 4:06 pm

  @Grislybear
  “I dont recall seeing 500,000 jobs gone by Christmas on the side of a bus during the referendum cant imagine many takers for that.”

  This was what we were told a month before the referendum. Either people did not believe it or they thought being out of the EU was worth it.

  https://www.gov.uk/government/news/britain-to-enter-recession-with-500000-uk-jobs-lost-if-it-left-eu-new-treasury-analysis-shows

  The reality of course turned out to be very different!
• 88 The Investor December 16, 2018, 4:37 pm

  [@all — Thanks for a very good discussion, as Brexit things go, by the way. Not one comment deletion required so far!]

  I can quite understand why Leave supporters are skeptical about prophecies of economic upset, given the way the economy has done okay in the aftermath of the Leave vote versus the (foolishly specific) dire predictions some made.

  Of course we have gone from fastest growing G7 nation to slowest, and we were helped out by the (ironic!?) recovery in the Eurozone — and it took far longer to trigger Article 50 than had originally been touted. All those are mitigations.

  Still, things always happen. The fact is employment is currently at an all-time high and the drawdowns/uncertainty to-date is mostly limited to specific sectors such as commercial property and arguably house prices.

  I would strongly expect it would be different if we crashed out without a Deal in March. That’s leaving the EU, not the fear of leaving the EU, and while I must concede I expected the fear to do far more damage than it did, I am sure the reality would.

  Set against that a drawn out exit with No Deal — a negotiated exit or whatever you want to call it — would be far less immediately painful.

  But while I’m here I’d like to put on record as I always do in these discussions that FWIW I don’t expect the UK economy to permanently fall off a cliff if we No Deal Exit. My belief is leaving the EU will (economically but also culturally/politically in my world view) leave us poorer for the foreseeable future (i.e. at least a couple of decades) absent a dire scenario I don’t envisage (like a collapse of the Eurozone where it might indeed be marginally more beneficial to be outside of the EU altogether).

  But ‘poorer for the foreseeable’ might be say 0.1-0.25% of GDP a year outside the EU. It almost certainly won’t be several million unemployed as a result of Brexit, or the economy immediately losing 10% of GDP.

  Rather, it would be a persistent cost exacted across the economy, holding us back, which would come through all the additional hassles and frictions of trade, the lack of free movement, the ageing population, and more.

  The opposite effect of the reason why countries have clamoured to join the EU for three decades, in other words.

  Over a decade or two, that small drag would really add up, as all us students of compound interest know. Eventually it will be a meaningfully smaller economy than we would have otherwise had. (Even the mild hit to GDP we suffered since the vote has cost us tens of billions, albeit not by anything like enough to take us to recessionary levels.)

  But I think I understand @DIY’s point-of-view, even if I don’t agree with it. It’s not that people voted for 500K fewer jobs, or even for £350m for the NHS. That wasn’t the vote. The vote was to Leave.

  In that view, it’s like declaring a war on another country, say. You can’t un-declare a war because it turns out to be far harder than you thought. (Seriously, if I hear one more broadcaster say “It’s turned out to be much harder and potentially painful to leave the EU than anyone thought” — no, it’s just as hard and painful as some of us thought!)

  I think the initial referendum was ill-conceived and tainted enough by everything we don’t need to repeat here to make me *just* come down on the side of throwing it out and having another, but I can see why it infuriates Leavers, and I guess why economic arguments still don’t get much traction.
• 89 Steve M December 16, 2018, 4:45 pm

  The Investor states in his article that:
  “What @ermine’s Venn diagram is missing though is the set of people who voted either Leave or Remain to make us poorer. Perhaps that’s because it doesn’t exist – despite even the Government admitting that’s what we face.”

  The statement that “no-one voted to be poorer” is one that is constantly stated by “remainers”. However, all households received a copy of the UK governments leaflet on the EU. [See https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf%5D

  This leaflet quite clearly indicated (on pages 6 and 8) that there would likely be some years of economic effects if the UK voted to leave – presumably detrimental ones. Yet 52% of the votes that were cast in the EU referendum were to leave – so the statment that no-one voted to be poorer is simply not true.

  In any case if the UK withdraws from the EU customs union the UK economy can trade on different terms with the rest of the world and also NOT HAVE TO impose the EU’s common external tariff on imports from outside the EU, such as on food, clothing etc. This will inevitably change the UK’s economy, in the longer term and who knows right now whether that would make the UK poorer or richer??
• 90 diy investor (uk) December 16, 2018, 5:52 pm

  I guess we could return to all the lead up to the referendum but what is done is done and as @The Investor says, the vote was ‘Leave’.

  I do not know if we will be better off or worse off in 10 or 20 years. We may realise down the road that maybe we had not made a good decision and apply to rejoin.

  I just think that the bottom line for me is that if ever we are to move forward, the referendum result must be respected. However much those who wish to remain in the EU may not like the result, and however much they sincerely believe this is a monumental mistake, if the country is to have any chance of coming back together, they need to find some way to accept the result.

  Any second referendum will compound the divisions, the only people calling for it are those who voted remain, it will undermine our democracy as well as stringing this process out for a further year (at least) and will have all sorts of unintended consequences.

  If the government cannot secure an acceptable deal soon, then the only legitimate way forward which respects the 2016 vote is a negotiated leave with WTO rules which could involve an agreed transition period. As I may have said earlier, any sensible government would have been preparing this as plan B rather than relying on their take-it-or-leave it deal which most people accept is totally unacceptable.
• 91 Learner December 16, 2018, 7:37 pm

  I’m strongly for remaining, more so than many commenters here and even more than The Investor I suspect. But if there’s proper* referendum I would completely respect the outcome – even if that is for a kamakazi no-deal exit.

  *Should the UK:
  1a Remain in EU
  1b Leave EU
  If leaving, should UK adopt the plan agreed with EU:
  2a Yes
  2a No.

  (I’ve participated in a consequential, national referendum with this two-part format. It works well, eliminating vote splitting.)
• 92 Duncurin December 16, 2018, 8:25 pm

  If your primary aim is to bring the country back together again, then perhaps it would be better to remain in the EU. Generally speaking our attention span for issues is relatively short, unless we are continually reminded of them. If Article 50 were rescinded then many people who voted leave would be upset, but time passes and things move on. (Of course in the short term there could be insurrection, mass violence, bloodshed and the complete breakdown of society, but that probably wouldn’t turn out to be as bad as people fear.) But if some sort of Withdrawal Agreement comes into effect next March then we are due for years of humiliating negotiations with a strong EU. This will keep the issues in the public eye and the stress, upset and recriminations will continue indefinitely.
• 93 Marked December 16, 2018, 8:37 pm

  Very interesting conversation.
  As a remainer with 2 kids that are just into 2 digits I am constantly melancholic what leave will do to their chances. I also see the economy at tipping point, just because business investment is not happening. Something needs to happen- anything – so businesses can plan. Interesting article in the Guardian – admittedly a wildly left newspaper- about an online bike and sports store that in January will move to Bulgaria and open its warehouse in Germany. Then Jaguar, having already lost 1000 contractor jobs is looking to lose 5000 employees next year. I don’t believe Jags is a direct consequence of Brexit but it certainly doesn’t help.

  However what I’m lost with is the Leave abject disgust for a referendum (which will not have keep in Eu as an option). To me the objection comes from the fear of failing. I think it’s perfectly reasonable to have a referendum given why do people not have the right to change their mind?
  When thry talk about democracy I find that hurtful. If you look at the 1.2M delta in the vote it means you need to sway 600,001 people to win. Do you not think
  Paul Dachre and Rupert Murdoch through their “weapons” swayed more than that with brain washing? Is that democratic too?

  Either way I have a feeling this will be settled with TM’s deal and a tinker on the backstop. I saw David Davis, Raab and Foster give their alternative vision the other day. Interesting the DUP are there. It still accepted the backstop with a 10 year time limit and negotiated extension there after.

  You see that? 10 YEARS. So we are still talking a long time. Seems a deal can be done.
• 94 Jonathan December 16, 2018, 9:48 pm

  I like Learner’s (post 91) suggestion that if there is a referendum it should be a two-part question. It gets round the worry that if it were round May’s three options (her deal, no deal, no Brexit) there is a risk of stalemate with no overall majority for anything – much like most people analyse the current House of Commons.

  I do think an underlying problem is the reverence expressed for the referendum result, which was hardly overwhelming (I mean, how many thought it was about increasing funding for the NHS?). Britain doesn’t govern by referendums, and so no one knows how to deal with the result. Cameron was enthusiastic for them on the basis they would end up supporting the status quo and thus needing no further political action but of course he failed on this one.

  The nearest equivalent has been the way an elected party’s manifesto promises have been generally respected by the opposition. However by half way through a parliament’s term (in other words two to two and half years later, like now) there is rather less patience with the governing party defending new legislation on the basis it is fulfilling a manifesto promise.

  While from the outside it looks as if a new referendum is the obvious way to break the deadlock if Commons numbers remain intractable, a vote of no confidence and general election is not impossible. Were that to happen (and assuming the rest of the EU would extend Article 50, which would be more of a given for a referendum if Remain were a conceivable outcome) there has to be a worry about whether the public would actually be given a choice. I assume the Tories would have to put the government proposal on their manifesto since they would look pretty silly if they didn’t, but would Labour plump for Remain? I don’t trust them to get off the fence rather than propose another wishful thinking Leave option (much the same as the Rees-Moggites really). The only genuine alternative would be the Liberals who have been consistent Remainers , and while they might attract support the best outcome they could realistically hope for would be as a third party holding the balance of power, in other words back to stalemate.
• 95 Keith December 16, 2018, 10:10 pm

  @diy investor (uk)
  I can’t see that in every circumstance a second referendum would be illegitimate, although I do believe that a high bar should be set for getting to one.

  The way to legitimate a second referendum would be for there to be a general election in which one of the two major parties’ platforms (presumably Labour’s) made the holding of another vote its headline promise. That way, anyone voting for that party would know that it would legislate to hold a second referendum, and if that party (or a pro-Remain coalition of parties) won enough seats to form the next government then surely there could be no question about the legitimacy of a second referendum?

  I put to one side the questions of extending the Article 50 period, amending the EU Withdrawal Act, another hung parliament, turnout and margin (not to mention result!) of a second referendum, etc.
• 96 mike December 16, 2018, 10:22 pm

  Well the comments (including from TI) are better than the article….

  A few economic points:

  1. before the referendum, merely the fact of voting to leave (not even invoking article 50) was predicted to lead to hundreds of thousands unemployed, an immediate “punishment” budget, etc, all of which failed to come to pass. In reality, for example, employment is now at its highest level since records began “despite Brexit”. Leave voters can be forgiven for discounting the continuing predictions of doom from “experts” when talking about a “no deal” exit. And there’s equally some economists – such as Patrick Minford and the non-“ultra” Paul Krugman – that think that leaving the EU will not be the end of our economy…

  2. The Treasury has refused to publish the detailed methodologies behind their forecasts of the consequences of various Brexit scenarios, leading some to believe it is politically motivated scaremongering and built on flawed assumptions. For example some economists believe the Treasury’s assumptions are based on us self-harming by imposing equal tariffs on imported goods that therefore has negative impact on domestic GDP. Why would we do that? It may also assumes there is no economic gain at all from controlling our own policy compared with the EU doing it, and asumes GDP gains from new trade deals with non-EU countries are only 10% of what the EU estimated those gains would be. Given the Treasury is barely able to predict next quarter’s GDP, their specific forecasts for what the situation will be in 10 years time are understandably dismissed by some.

  3. for every Remain voter who thinks that the EU is a beacon of outward looking, globalist free trade, there’s a Leave voter who considers the EU a protectionist bloc supporting German industry and French farmers, opposed to trade with the world. Example: European tariffs on oranges vary on the season…

  4. we have a £67bn trade deficit with the EU. The predictions of deliberate blockades and go-slows at Calais seem unlikely given the EU makes more out of trade with us than we do out of trade with them. Yes, they could be implemented one-way, but that risks tit-for-tat retaliation from the UK, which will hurt the EU more on a per unit basis.

  To the popular refrain “nobody voted to be poorer”, a previous commenter has made the point that the government spent £9m of our own money telling us that voting Leave would do exactly that.

  And then there are the non-economic reasons why people voted Leave too…
• 97 diy investor (uk) December 16, 2018, 10:42 pm

  @Keith
  It was only 2017 that we had a GE. The Lib Dems actually promised a second referendum however this was rejected and their share of the vote was just 7.4%. In Scotland the SNP who are firmly in favour of remain lost 21 seats.

  Both of the main parties promised to deliver on the referendum and both increased their share of the vote compared to 2015.

  So, we had the 2015 GE which Cameron won and delivered on his election pledge to give us a referendum overwhelmingly endorsed in the Commons. In 2016 we had the referendum which was won by Leave. Article 50 was triggered after a lengthy debate in the Commons. We had the 2017 GE where both main parties confirmed their respect for delivering on Brexit and between them received over 80% of the vote.

  And here we are 3 months before we are due to leave with a crap deal on the table after 18 months of intense negotiations, no plan B and a growing call from people who voted remain to go back to the people and ask them again.

  This is turning into a sick joke….I’m finished here.
• 98 Duncurin December 17, 2018, 1:00 am

  In one sense, representative democracy is working well at present because Parliament is as conflicted about Brexit as the general public. MPs do take note of public opinion. If that opinion were now 70:30 in favour of Brexit then it would go through on the nod. If it were now 70:30 in favour of remaining, Brexit would certainly be cancelled (probably by means of a second referendum).

  But public opinion on Brexit is still running at about 50:50, and I think this must be a high-water mark for Leave support. Some of the (approx) 50% who still think we should leave now only hold that opinion because they feel the 2016 referendum result should be honoured. And after Brexit the advantages (such as increased sovereignty) will be largely invisible, while the disadvantages will become increasingly concrete, particularly if we leave without a deal. Before too long we could easily reach a position where 70% of the electorate thought Brexit had been a mistake.

  Do not be surprised if we then learn that most politicians had never really been in favour of Brexit in the first place. As Kenneth Clarke said: “before the Iraq war 70 per cent of the British public were in favour of the invasion and most of the Conservative party was in a patriotic fury. Within 12 months you couldn’t meet a member of the public who had ever known anybody who was in favour of it.” Dear old Ken was exaggerating slightly: according to YouGov polls at the time, public support for the war had been 54%.
• 99 Charles Hayton December 17, 2018, 12:11 pm

  The recent Referendum has legitimised a form of lunacy.

  It’s now commonplace to hear formerly rational-sounding citizens demanding that we tear up the stability – economic, political and civic order – that we and our nation has enjoyed, and replace it with a vacuum of chaos in order that we somehow “take back control”.

  As far as can be determined, to “take back control” involves little old England isolating itself and exposing its soft underbelly to the claws of the world’s most powerful nations and trading blocs, with the EU first in line to teach this nation a classic lesson in power.

  Why have so many people seemingly lost their minds?

  This is the sort of mass lunacy you read about in history books, where you shake your head in disbelief at the actions of a population in some other part of the world who managed to destroy their own nation, inviting disorder and ruin into their and their children’s lives, because they appeared unable to act like reasonable adults and chose instead to tear down their entire world.

  “Thank fe&k I wasn’t born somewhere crazy like that”, you might mutter.

  Well you do now.
• 100 Keith December 17, 2018, 12:37 pm

  @diy investor (uk)
  If there is no possiblity of pausing and taking stock, if not necessarily immediately turning back, then we’re left to choose between the ‘crap deal’ and ‘no deal’, which even Mrs May has begun to concede is worse than a crap deal. This choice was inevitable once she set out her red lines in January 2017, whereas the politics of the narrow margin of leave’s victory and the common-sense difficulties of uncoupling a major economy from four decades of integration with the EU pointed to EEA-EFTA as the only viable Brexit destination – politically, economically and in every other respect.

  You make some fair points as to why the 2016 vote should be honoured, which is precisely why I suggested that a high bar needs to be raised against setting it aside. But in the light of 2.5 years of experience there does need to be some route that permits us to set it aside. If there was a rerun which produced another leave majority, given everything that people now know, then I (unhappily but quite definitely) would consider the issue settled.

  On the detail of your points, I know it is often said that both major parties promised in the 2017 GE to respect the referendum outcome, but it is hardly credible that Labour under Corbyn would have gained enough seats to produce the current sorry hung parliament had Labour not been the beneficiary of remainers’ hopes to stop Brexit. To say that remainers could have voted for the Lib Dems is not a strong argument given the country’s FPP system.

  Both parties in 2017 went out of their way to claim the election was not about Brexit, but how for many voters could it not have been in the circumstances? And Labour have been in contortions about it ever since. If there is another election before the end of March then it will, I hope, unambiguously be a Brexit election.
• 101 AAJ December 17, 2018, 12:53 pm

  Leave or remain, that is the question. Not Brexit of course, but what to do with my investments. I think that I’ve spent far too much time discussing Brexit – and I can’t change this and far too little time thinking about what to invest in – I can change this!

  Surely, (active) investors should have be discussing their flight to safe assets (US, Gold) over the past 6 months. Ditching volatile assets (UK and Euro small companies) and lowering exposure to assets their expect Brexit to harm (UK, Europe).

  After all, if people think Brexit is or will be a disaster, what are you going to do about it financially?
• 102 ermine December 17, 2018, 1:57 pm

  After all, if people think Brexit is or will be a disaster, what are you going to do about it financially?

  You’re way too late to the party if what you are going to do about it mainly lies in the future. I bought gold and shifted to foreign assets before the vote, because I expected it to go the other way and one should always buy a bit of what you don’t expect to happen. I bought some more occasionally in the intervening time. Oddly enough I am to some extent betting on it not being as much of a disaster as I expect it to be, and yes, in my heart of darkness I really hope it won’t happen too. That damned referendum was advisory, not tablets of stone brought back from God. I am more than happy for all my activity since 2016 to turn out to be a misallocation of capital if Brexit doesn’t happen

  So I buy some of those foreign assets in an index fund hedged to the GBP. At the moment the assets are going down about at the same rate as the GBP, which is nice (as a buyer). If it is as bad as I expect then I will have made a bad call as the GBP goes titsup and cable is 0.5USD=GBP.

  I hold vastly too much cash, true, in crappy GBP, though I’d also be prepared to sell some of the gold, because I expect to see a load of snarling and gnashing of teeth in the months to come and there may be buying opportunities if UK assets fall faster than the £.

  But let’s face it, the time for forestalling activity is gone, it was preferably before the sudden rush of blood to the head in 2016. Fortunately I bought most of my foreign assets before then, and I am at the end of my working life so I won’t need to buy much more with my rotten post 2016 £s. I guess if you are young and have 20 years of working life left then your wages will hopefully track Brexit induced inflation after a while and you will buy your foreign assets with more £s but your savings rate will be roughly the same, just the numbers of £s will be higher.
• 103 rick24 December 17, 2018, 2:20 pm

  For the small number of pro-Brexit voters I have spoken to – ordinary people – the issue actually boils down to sovereignty, not economics. They don’t want ‘people’ (Brussels) telling them what to do. “We were always outvoted on everything”. They see Brexit as a way of preserving a way of life that they love. So if they were to be convinced to stay in, one would have to show that being a member of the EU does not essentially compromise sovereignty; that we weren’t always “outvoted on everything” (e.g. that we have like-minded nations within the EU but that agreeing compromises means you don’t always get everything you might like and yet is beneficial); and that our culture won’t necessarily be changed in ways we don’t like (but I can see why the nation state might be thought to be the best guarantor of the latter).
  For me, sovereignty was not such a defining issue but I can see why for others it can be.
  I’m not looking forward with relish to a 25% reduction in the value of sterling and a future of relative decline. What a car crash!
  On the small matter of demographics: people tend to become more conservative with age, so insofar as conservatism is associated with being pro-Brexit (not a given, I know: I am a pro-remain conservative (small ‘c’)), there may not be a material change in the proportions of pro-leave and pro-remain due to age.
• 104 HariSeldon December 17, 2018, 3:47 pm

  A no deal Brexit is undesirable and will cause disruption but it’s surprising how quickly people/business adjusts.

  Southampton is nearby and deals with a lot of non EU as well as EU shipping and they manage.

  I am not making light of the issues but it’s amazing how quickly businesses can adapt.

  Having managed a company that lost a major customer (60%+ of our business) I was horrified and because of the geographic location of the business and nature of the industry, feared for the worst.

  In practice it all worked out very well, offered new services , found work outside the local area. ( Switzerland, Brazil and Eire ) clearly this is anecdotal but if I had a lot of notice , I would have presumed disaster, redundancies etc. A classic who moved my cheese moment.

  I voted Remain and I hope we take the easy route but in the event of the worst occurring I suspect it will work out. I’d be confident that long term we will rebuild our trading relationship with the EU and hopefully draw closer again
• 105 Brod December 17, 2018, 3:54 pm

  @rick24 – I think, though, that as the oldest “conservative Brexiteers” cohort die and are replaced by the ageing of younger cohorts, the younger cohorts will not necessarily be “conservative Brexiteer”. Just “conservative”. If that makes sense. I.e. being older is not the cause of Brexit supporting, merely a correlation. If you’re one of the younger cohort and slightly more likely to be a remainer, you’ll remain a remainer when you move to the older cohort. Maybe 😉

  What are we doing to prepare for Brexit? Well, I was always globally diversified, so only had 9% UK exposure. I sold some international equities and that’s held in £s waiting for a buying opportunity as I thought at this end of the bull market I was over-exposed. I’m now 26% in UK equities, short-term Gilts and cash and 74% global. ASs I intend to live in the UK, I feel happy with that position. Of course, add in my house and small government DB pension, and it’s a lot more than that.

  Also, my wife’s a Data Scientist and I’m encouraging her to try and get a job abroad where she might be eligible for a passport for me and the kids (7 & 5). She can commute each weekend. I think there may be an almighty tech brain-drain to Amsterdam, Barcelona, Lisbon, Frankfurt, etc.. I quite fancy Lisbon myself.
• 106 Kraggash December 17, 2018, 5:20 pm

  @HariSeldon

  “Southampton is nearby and deals with a lot of non EU as well as EU shipping and they manage”

  Hey, its near me too!
  But, of course, non-EU trade is still done under the EU trade agreements that are in place. So a short term ‘disruption’, and you can imagine the type of deals we would get to replace them, being in a bit of a desperate situation, and not having the clout of the EU. I am sure resource-rich countries such as Canada and Australia would be happy to sell us natural resources. I struggle to see what they would buy in return…
• 107 sir steve December 17, 2018, 10:02 pm

  Like some others I suspect that we are heading for another referendum. But the issue of which question/which options should be on the ballot paper is a tricky one. Having 3 (or more) options would be unlikely to give a clear cut result – even we went down the alternative preference route. Like @ Learner, I think we should consider a 2-stage referendum with a binary choice at each stage. The first stage question could be ‘should we accept the Theresa May/EU negotiated deal – yes or no?’. If yes wins, that’s it – we leave under the negotiated deal. If the electorate rejects it, we move onto the second stage, when the binary choice could be between remain and leave with no deal. This would have a strong democratic justification (‘you said you wanted us to leave the EU; this is the best deal we have been able to negotiate on your behalf; do you want to leave on these terms?) and give a clear outcome. It wouldn’t of course guarantee that we’d get a ‘sensible’ result (although what is judged ‘sensible’ will depend on your perspective on the whole Brexit issue). But it would also force the electorate to confront the serious and hard choices that our politicians have thus far been unable to make – and to do so at a time when we all know a hell of a lot more about what’s involved in leaving the EU than we knew in 2016. Disclosure: I voted Remain in 2016 and would probably vote No and Remain in a 2-stage referendum.
• 108 The Borderer December 17, 2018, 11:46 pm

  My biggest fear is a Corbyn government. All other worries regarding ‘hard;, ‘soft’, er … any kind of Brexit pale into insignificance.

  Would be good to see a blog on how best to deal with that.
• 109 The Borderer December 18, 2018, 12:08 am

  @Ermine (102)

  I’m afraid I can’t see the rationale for hedging you’re investments back to a currency that is falling and will continue to fall post insanity.

  It was falling anyway.

  https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD#charts
• 110 ermine December 18, 2018, 12:36 am

  @The Borderer I have benefited in GBP nominal terms from Brexit, because fortuitously most of my investments were made before 2016. In four years at most my investing career will come to an end as a net buyer, because I am at the end of my working life.

  I will be more than happy if Brexit is cancelled. I will give up some of those gains with the strengthening pound by I will live in a country that dodged self-immolation by the skin of its teeth.

  The dilemma was what to do with contributions post 2016. Again fortuitously these are not a large part of my investments.

  If Brexit is cancelled, the strengthening pound will make post 2016 investments appreciate. If it isn’t, those will be stuffed, as you say. But I get to keep the nominal uplift in my main pre 2016 investments. Small consolation, ebcause though the numbers are bigger the inflation in imported goods means my foreign assets are the same value in real terms. But better than my GBP assets including pension, which will fall.

  Our host described it better in his post than I have managed. My situation is not to be generalised, I am Barry Blimp in age and accumulation profile though not outlook 😉 By doing this I am leaning slightly against the risk of Brexit getting cancelled causing me to give back all the Brexit nominal boost. I don’t really expect that to happen, but you know, three months is a long time in politics. Sometimes you have to place a stake on what you don’t expect to happen in the interests of diversification. I didn’t need this Brexit-induced volatility and I want to hedge some of the currency part while still holding productive assets, rather than holding more gold or foreign currency.
• 111 hosimpson December 18, 2018, 5:31 pm

  The army – the fucking army – is now on standby in preparation for a no deal brexit. I don’t know who can still say at this point that brexit was a good idea, y’know, sunny uplands and all that shit, but (sadly) I’m sure these people exist.
• 112 Brod December 18, 2018, 6:06 pm

  @hosimpson – Tories playing macho again, eh? Bet Jean-Claude’s scared now!
• 113 Factor December 18, 2018, 7:48 pm

  Two separate acquaintances, who each joyfully said that they had voted Leave at the time of the referendum, have individually suffered a memory “lapse” and now claim to have voted Remain. Hmmm!
• 114 hosimpson December 18, 2018, 8:20 pm

  Sounds like my dickwad boss, who was skipping (yes, he was, no, I’m not exaggerating) and doing fistpumps – actual honest to god fucking fistpumps (not a good look on a short balding guy in mid 50s, imho) the day after the referendum, when he came in late to work becaus (he said) he had to go to the polling station in the morning… So he went from that to now claiming – quote unquote – “I didn’t even vote in the referendum!”.
  I fear lying may run deeper in Brexit than Boris’s stupid bus.
• 115 The Weasel December 18, 2018, 8:22 pm

  @hosimpson Surely that’s just the reptilian euphilic remoaner elite ramping up project fear?

  @Factor must be the same virus that Moggy just caught. Sky quotes him saying he now “fully supports” the PM, I wonder what the Barrys of the UK make of that..
• 116 mike December 18, 2018, 8:54 pm

  On the Army being on standby – after 4 years of increasingly hysterical warnings of plagues of locusts, nuclear apocalypse and worse to be caused by Brexit, I’m quite glad the army are on standby to maintain law and order when people start panic buying canned goods…

  It’s like the Y2K bug all over again, but this time rather than calm soothing words that everything is going to be ok, we’ve had years of every member of the establishment screaming “WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE!”…
• 117 Charles Hayton December 18, 2018, 9:21 pm

  “It’s like the Y2K bug all over again,”

  Not entirely sure what you’re implying…

  …but to remedy Y2K “bugs” billions and billions and billions and billions of dollars were spent over the best part of a decade fixing millions and millions and millions and millions lines of code and design flaws in software systems around the globe, testing those systems, deploying them and mitigating the flaws that slipped through the net.

  That’s why the IT world didn’t collapse in early Jan 2000.

  Is that what you meant?
• 118 The Investor December 18, 2018, 9:24 pm

  This “establishment” label is pretty ridiculous. Come on guys, you’ve got more credible slurs to throw around than that.

  Every Leaver I’ve met in London (as opposed to friends/friends of family in provinces) has been a well-off 40-60 year old white British guy who works in financial services. The financial bloggers who use it on Twitter are similar. I’m not going to claim every reader here who uses the term is the same — obviously I don’t know — but I highly doubt we’ve got members of crypto-anarchist syndicates and communists living in wigwams reading and commenting on Monevator.

  The whole Leave project is the cherished dream of the most Conservative Conservatives!

  True, you/they managed to persuade a lot of non-establishment / disenfranchised / underclass / less educated / whatever term will/won’t offend you the most to win the Referendum. But on anything except the most narrow view and Brexit, the same people this ilk of Leavers call The Establishment are the ones who have been working to support a status quo that has served them fine for decades.

  I’m not saying Remainers are anti-establishment, either, obviously. Clearly not, and clearly the whole country is split all over the place.

  As for the army, I sort of agree with @Mike — I’d have them on alert, too — because why not? Strange things can happen in febrile times (remember the riots a few years ago, that came from nowhere?) and if you’ve got an army you may as well have it on alert. Ridiculous that we’re approaching that point, but there we are.

  As for years of screaming “we’re all going to die!”, well firstly literally nobody has said that and secondly everyone is throwing around more extreme hot takes. It’s like every vocal Leaver is suddenly an expert on constitutions and politics (despite not having apparently grasped how the democratic EU works, in most cases).

  In reality, the world would of course not end if we had a second Referendum. Countries that do Referendums a lot do it all the time, as this BBC article recaps:

  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46591250
• 119 The Investor December 18, 2018, 9:35 pm

  p.s. I think I’ve botched my retort to “we’re all going to die” given the hyperbole in my subsequent sentences, haven’t I? 😉 But anyway I am on alert about that line of thinking, because my view is the reality of Brexit will be a slow sad seep not a bang, and maybe not even an immediate whimper. Just like the benefits of being in the EU have apparently been too invisible to most over the past 30 years, also.
• 120 mike December 18, 2018, 9:42 pm

  I was using Y2K as an example of how the powers that be persuaded people that, despite us not knowing where all the bugs were hiding, everything was going to be alright. That prevented panic buying, loss of control, and breakdown in society. Whereas now every opportunity is used to hype up the risks of “crashing out” “cliff edge” “national disaster”, etc as of 11pm on 29th March.

  It will end badly if the rhetoric doesn’t change, whatever the preparations – and I hope there are no remain voters who want to see chaos to say “I told you so”.

  And yes, Y2K required preparation, I was there and working through it. Not every bug was caught, but there also wasn’t an apocalypse either.

  That there has been inadequate preparation for Brexit in all its possible forms is shameful, but, given who is in charge…
• 121 xxd09 December 19, 2018, 10:34 am

  I was always waiting for the Correction that was due because of our over borrowing and vast debts
  Seems to be happening now
  Each correction has its own format/symptoms-this one seems to be political in form with Scottish Referendum,Brexit,Trump and our continental chums in Italy and France all signs of stress.
  The Bankers have told the Politcians there is no more money-the purse strings are tightening and people don’t like it
  I think we will all get poorer,the balance sheets will be restored to more manageable levels
  and life will resume
  Meanwhile tin hats everyone and hold on for the ride!
  xxd09
• 122 marked December 19, 2018, 10:36 pm

  I can’t believe this Houses of Parliament pantomime.

  A £1.7 Trn economy is about to be wounded in 100 days but the MP’s are playing games about the difference between “Stupid Woman” and “Stupid People”. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a Corbyn fan (and I do believe he said people – I hate the fact I actually agree with him) , but can we put all effort into making the least disruption possible for the jobs of people in the United Kingdom opposed to behaving WORSE than kids.
• 123 xxd09 December 20, 2018, 12:31 am

  One has the feeling that our leaders are a little out of their depth
  No place to run-the buck has stopped with them
  Pass the parcel games are over and they have to rise to the challenge or get off the pot!
  Asking the people what to do via referendum games are over
  They need to earn their pay and positions by coming up with the goods
  and quick
  Are they fit for purpose- not so far but they are the best we’ve got-God help us
  Perhaps we need hope and pray
  They remind me at the moment of rabbits caught in the headlights
  Let’s hope they get their act together soon
  xxd09
• 124 Keith December 20, 2018, 5:59 pm

  Some useful discussion over here about the consequences of no deal:
  http://eureferendum.com/default.aspx
• 125 The Rhino December 21, 2018, 11:46 am

  Amidst all the brouhaha of brexit, are we witnessing the start of a stock market crash? The 2%/day falls for the Dow are really starting to rack up and the link between the falling pound and the rising FTSE seems to have been severed
• 126 Adrian Judd December 21, 2018, 12:57 pm

  @The Rhino Cheap money is unwinding, something has to give. I’m not smart enough to know what exactly will happen and I think even some highly paid chaps in the city will take their eye off the ball. US interest rate rises, US/China trade war, Brexit & end of QE for Eurozone = ????

  What I’d like is for someone to figure it out and send me a plan for 2019. Brexit forecasts look worse each week. There must be an investment upside. I’ve only bough gold for the past 6 months. But at some point I want to switch to UK as it looks cheaper each day.

  I may be upset by Brexit, but I want to be a happy investor in 2019 🙂
• 127 The Investor December 21, 2018, 1:38 pm

  Amidst all the brouhaha of brexit, are we witnessing the start of a stock market crash?

  The start?! I hope you’re a passive investor ‘ignore the noise’ purist @Rhino. 🙂

  The US Nasdaq yesterday flirted with official bear market status, some emerging markets are already there, the FTSE 100 is down 15% since May and is now back to late 1990s levels, and it’s the first year possibly ever where no major asset class delivered a positive return (I can’t remember the specifics of the graph I saw, but I think including cash when you look to real returns.)
• 128 The Rhino December 21, 2018, 2:00 pm

  You were probably looking at this – https://pensionpartners.com/no-place-to-hide/

  Problem for me is I need to buy a bigger house in 2019 – I just hope houses fall at least as much as everything else (on aggregate) or I’m going to have anchoring issues to contend with.
• 129 xxd09 December 21, 2018, 6:30 pm

  Government deficit at the lowest its been for 15 years
  Are we getting there?
  xxd09
• 130 The Investor December 21, 2018, 8:37 pm

  Problem for me is I need to buy a bigger house in 2019 – I just hope houses fall at least as much as everything else (on aggregate) or I’m going to have anchoring issues to contend with.

  This is partly why I finally bought my flat, as I’ve partly written up in my 2,500 word draft of Why I Bought My Flat which I can’t seem to finish to publish. 🙁 Basically for a long time only residential property (and cash) seemed expensive but by late 2017 pretty much everything seemed expensive (certainly for the risks) so I thought why not have various ways to get killed by corrections, rather than just shares, and have a comfy place to do it in. 😉
• 131 Tony January 3, 2019, 4:21 pm

  Just belatedly read this. Congratulations on a brilliantly incisive article. So good I’ve bookmarked it!