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Pensions and Inheritance Tax: Rugged by Reeves

We’ve been challenged by pension planning on Monevator before. In particular you may recall my previous post on a fictional middle-class duo, Sarah and Stephen, and their pensions-and-IHT-planning saga.

Near the end of that piece, I read the vibes coming from the presumed shoe-in of an incoming Labour government and confidently declared:

Nor do I think it’s likely they bring pensions into people’s estates.

Pensions are trusts, and this would require the overhaul of quite a bit of trust law.

Well, chalk this up as another episode in the long drama of Finumus Predicts Poorly.

And let it serve as another reminder not to take anything as anything as gospel from semi-random internet pundits. Me included!

That said, I did hedge my bets in a later article, warning:

Over the long run, I doubt ‘beneficiary’ pension pots compounding tax-free for decades will survive the ‘Someone has £1bn in their pension’ headlines. We’re not America.

But I didn’t think the unravelling would come this quickly…

Pensions join the IHT parade

Starting April 2027, defined contribution (DC) pensions will fall within the scope of inheritance tax (IHT).

While the exact legislation is still to be hammered out, let’s assume the worst. (Generally the best approach to tax policy, especially for cynics).

Labour’s moving of the goalposts is not just a headline grabber. Bringing DC pensions into the scope of IHT creates significant problems, especially for those who’ve been diligently building retirement savings to double as intergenerational wealth vehicles.

Let’s have a quick refresher on how the system presently works.

The (simplified!) current rules:

  1. Pension assets are outside your estate for IHT purposes.
  2. On death, assets inside your pension can be passed to beneficiaries, as per your Expression of Wishes.
  3. If you die before 75, beneficiaries can withdraw tax-free (but they don’t have to – they can instead let the pot grow indefinitely).
  4. If you die after 75, beneficiaries pay income tax on withdrawals, but no IHT.

This structure has long been a favorite of tax planners for IHT minimisation.

Combining generous tax relief on contributions with tax-deferred growth and IHT-free transferability? It’s a potent cocktail – akin to having your cake, eating it, and then feeding it to your heirs in perpetuity.

But come April 2027, the party’s over.

The New World Order

Under Labour’s proposed new rules:

  • Pension pots will face 40% IHT.
  • Beneficiaries will also pay income tax on withdrawals, regardless of the original owner’s age at death.

One or the other might have been tolerable.

But both? It’s brutal.

[Editor’s note: The early consensus from Monevator readers is that Finumus’ worst-case scenario is excessively fatalistic. The suggestion so far, they note, is that the income tax regime on inherited pensions will remain the same. This would mean no income tax if the donor dies before age 75. We will not know for sure, of course, until we see the proposed legislation. Please read and add your own thoughts in the comments.]

To illustrate why Labour’s new rules could be so tough, let’s compare some outcomes.

If you start with £100 in a pension, under the current system, your descendants can keep that £100 compounding tax-free forever (as long as they never draw it down).

What about under the new system? Well, that same £100 shrinks to mere pennies over five generations due to compounding taxes.

Changing the rules like this effectively introduces a wealth tax of ~1.33% per year on assets in pensions.

And unlike other assets, pensions are trapped. You can’t give them away to sidestep IHT – or at least you can’t without paying income tax.

I feel another meme coming on…

Meet the victims: Sarah and Stephen

Let’s revisit our fictional friends from my previous post, Sarah and Stephen.

The doughty duo were last seen convincing Sarah’s parents to fund their pensions to the tune of £360,000 to save both IHT and to give them a bit of financial breathing room.

Since then:

  • Sarah successfully squeezed £360,000 (gross) into their pensions.
  • Their kids, Amelia and Jack, are now at university.
  • Stephen netted £1 million from a venture investment.
  • Their ISAs and SIPPs have soared in the bull market.

Their net worth (including gross value of pensions) now sits at £7.3m.

If they die tomorrow, their estate would owe £1.58m in IHT. But if they die post-April 2027? That IHT bill balloons to £2.7m. That’s an extra £1m gone to HMRC.

Dinner table drama: a clash of generations and expectations

Over dinner, Sarah unveils the grim numbers to Stephen, her spreadsheet glowing ominously on the kitchen table. Stephen’s initial reaction is one of stoic resignation.

“The kids will be fine,” Stephen says, sipping his wine. “We’ve given them a great education, a leg-up most people can only dream of. They’ve got to stand on their own two feet eventually.”

Sarah isn’t so sure: “Fine? In this economy? You have remembered that they are both studying humanities?”

Sarah reminds him that the cost of housing has ballooned since their own days as scrappy young professionals.

“Even with decent jobs, Amelia and Jack will struggle to buy a home in London unless we help,” she argues. “Add in student loans, higher taxes, and the cost of living – they’ll be working harder for less. And now, a good chunk of what we planned to leave them will be eaten by this new pension tax double-whammy.”

Stephen sighs but doesn’t counter. Sarah has a point. Their £2.7m post-2027 IHT bill could be as much an entire post-tax career’s worth of income for their kids.

That stark figure prompts Stephen reconsider his laissez-faire attitude.

“It’s not about leaving them a pile of money to blow on avocado toast and electric cars,” Sarah presses. “It’s about giving them options – the same options we’ve had. Financial freedom and choices. Security.”

By the end of the meal (and a bottle of wine), the conversation has veered from pragmatic planning to a lamentation of modern Britain.

They reminisce about the 1990s – lower taxes, cheaper houses, rising wages – and wonder how it all went so wrong.

“We’re not just managing money here,” Sarah concludes, a bit teary-eyed. “We’re managing their future.”

A camel through the eye of a needle

As Sarah digs into spreadsheets, she realises their pensions will need to be spent down – flipping their previous ‘pensions-last’ strategy on its head.

This will actually be quite difficult, she discovers as she runs the numbers.

For simplicity, Sarah bundles their SIPPs together and assumes both her and Stephen retire at 55, die at 85, enjoy smooth 3.5% returns, and make no further contributions to their pensions:

If they limit withdrawals to paying basic rate tax, then they’re not going to get it all out.

If they are prepared to go to take a 40% hit though, then maybe they can:

Stephen points out that 30-year gilts have a 5% YTM right now, so Sarah’s 3.5% return assumption is a bit pessimistic. So she plugs that in. 

Yeah, they are not going to make it.

They should probably just assume that they’re going to have to pay 45% to get it all out at some point.

What’s the new plan?

For now the couple will:

  • Only make further pension contributions if they can effectively achieve at least 50% tax relief. (For example income taxed in the 60% band, or with Employer’s NI via Salary Sacrifice). 
  • Think about retiring earlier than they otherwise would have.

And in retirement they’ll:

  • Prioritise running down pensions as soon as they retire.
  • Gift assets from their ISAs and other holdings to reduce taxable estate.

The generational headache: from one tax trap to another

The pension changes don’t just complicate Sarah and Stephen’s plans. They cascade upstream to Sarah’s parents and downstream to her children.

As the family’s de facto CFO, Sarah realises she has to juggle three generations of financial puzzles, each affected differently by these changes.

Sarah’s parents, Mike and Mary, are in their early 80s. Their SIPPs are smaller, but still substantial enough to pose problems.

Sarah’s immediate focus is to get Mike and Mary drawing down as much as they can while staying in the 20% income tax bracket.

“Every pound we can get out now saves Amelia and Jack from paying 40% IHT plus income tax later,” she explains to her increasingly confused parents. “It’s simple maths!”

Then there’s the tricky issue of skipping a generation.

If Mike and Mary’s pensions pass directly to Sarah, they’ll fall into her estate, creating a tax nightmare. To avoid this, Sarah gets them to update their ‘Expression of Wishes’ forms to redirect those funds to Amelia and Jack instead.

But even this has its pitfalls.

“The kids could inherit £420,000 each in their early 20s,” Sarah frets. “That could either set them up for life – or ruin their work ethic.”

Sarah tries not to think about what will happen when their children’s children face the same tax quagmire.

Pensions as poisoned chalices?

As Sarah continues crunching the numbers, she starts to question everything she thought she knew about pensions. What was once the family’s golden goose – a tax-efficient savings vehicle and inheritance tool – now looks more like a poisoned chalice.

Let’s take Amelia’s hypothetical future. By 2030, thanks to Sarah’s strategic planning, both children each inherit sizable SIPPs – say about £600,000 each, boosted by earlier contributions. These balances are enough to provide financial security, but the tax implications loom large.

For example, there’s going to be little point in Amelia making pension contributions once she starts work. (Unless it’s to avoid marginal tax rates of 20,000%.)

If Amelia doesn’t add another penny to her pension but lets it compound at a conservative 3.5% for 35 years, it grows to £2m. At 5%, it hits £3.3m.

A fantastic outcome on paper, clearly. But when Amelia eventually withdraws funds, she’ll face income tax at higher rates. And since she can’t leave her pension untouched for her children (thanks to the new IHT rules) she’ll be forced to draw it down aggressively or see it taxed again upon her death.

This realisation leads Sarah to stop contributing to her children’s SIPPs altogether.

“What’s the point?” Sarah laments. “All we’re doing is building them a tax headache for the future.”

Sarah looks at all this in despair, and she honestly doesn’t understand how this can be not ‘raising taxes on working people’.

She starts to wonder: how bad can five years in Dubai really be?

What do you think?

We’d love to hear what people think of Sarah’s situation. In particular, some practical tips amongst the outpouring of sympathy – or otherwise – would be most welcome.

I’m going to be coming back to wider IHT planning options for Sarah in future posts, and I’ll doubtless be covering: gifting rules, trusts, life insurance, life assurance, family investment companies, and possibly at this rate, emigration. I might even talk about (gulp!) annuities

Of course there’s also policy risk to consider. Sarah might retire early, start aggressively drawing down her pension, pay tax on it, and then see a 2029, Farage-led, Reform / Tory coalition government abolish IHT on its first day in power.

Want to add something to the discussion? You know where the comment are…

Be sure to follow Finumus on Bluesky or X and read his other articles for Monevator.

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The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q4 2024

Well that’ll do nicely. The Slow & Steady enjoyed 9.5% growth over the past year. Not bad for a portfolio on auto-pilot. I think it’s fair to say that reports of the death of the 60/40 portfolio are greatly exaggerated.

Here are the latest numbers:

The Slow & Steady is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000. An extra £1,310 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and find all the previous passive portfolio posts in the Monevator vaults. Last quarter’s instalment can be found here.

With the exception of global property, our equity holdings had a spectacular year:

Source: Morningstar Portfolio Manager

The returns for Emerging Markets, Global Small Cap, and the UK’s FTSE All-Share would look wonderful if they weren’t put in the shade by the blowout performance of Developed World equities – specifically US equities.

Indeed the S&P 500 delivered nearly three times the return of its nearest Developed World compadre this past year:

Source: JustETF

And this isn’t a new story. The US has been the Slow & Steady portfolio’s main engine of growth over the course of its 14-year lifespan:

Charts like this can shake your faith in the power of diversification.

If this is a free lunch then it comes with a bad case of food envy.

Where to go from here?

Do you want some more of what the guy in the cowboy hat is having? Or are you (sensibly) wary of piling in near the top?

There are three options as I see it.

You could:

1. Fold your non-US cards and project that the current trend will continue forever. Because that usually works out, right? [Editor’s note: Strong ironic tones detected.]

2. Conclude the trend contains the seeds of its own demise, as hinted at by valuation measures. For instance, Research Affiliates’ expected returns metric forecasts a real US annualised return of just 0.04% for the next decade:

If this version of the universe comes to pass, then ditching your diversifiers now to go all-in on Team America would be precisely the wrong move.

3. Finally, you could ignore both visions of the future, remembering that the US can indeed lag the rest of the world for years but also that the switchover point is inherently unpredictable:

How often do world equities beat US equities. This chart shows that the lead changed hands 10 times between 1919 and 2023.

Data from JST Macrohistory1, The Big Bang2, MSCI and Aswath Damodaran. August 2024.

The longer-term view revealed by this chart shows that lengthy periods of dominance are quite common.

They do end – or at least they always have before – yet in the meantime the winners in those eras probably seemed ‘locked-in’ to many investors at the time, too.

Worldly wisdom

The World index is now 72% occupied by US shares. If the S&P 500 continues to crush it, then World funds will pass that on, mildly diluted by the also-rans.

On the other hand if other locales do have a moment in the sun, then with a globally-diversified portfolio you’ll at least have some exposure to those new sources of momentum.

Personally I’m uncomfortable banking my net worth on any single sector, country, or asset class.

I’m happy to take my time getting to where I’m going, which is exactly why we called this project the Slow & Steady portfolio and not the Get Rich Quick Or Die Trying Mega-Punt portfolio.

Long story short: stand down, as you were.

Fourteen years down, six to go

I can scarcely believe it but the Slow & Steady portfolio is now 14-years old.

Back in 2010, I gave it a 20-year time-horizon – never thinking that was a destination this series would ever arrive at.

Now it looks like we might.

In the meantime, the original £3,000 seed money has multiplied to nearly £91,000 thanks to regular cash injections, reinvested dividends, and capital gains.

Here’s the story in a chart:

The first half of the journey was almost a cakewalk, barring the launch year’s knock back:

And the portfolio has only suffered one serious blow, in 2022. That year saw a bad-enough 13% loss in nominal terms – but a knuckle-gnawing 20% takedown after inflation.

Indeed, inflation went on to pour cold water over 2023’s glowing 9.2% result too, leaving us with a tepid 1.8% return in real terms.

Inflation stayed becalmed for most of my adult life. Yet old hands – and books – had warned us for years that ballooning prices was the most fearsome enemy we might face as investors.

Well, now we’ve lived it. Hence all the articles we’ve published on various ways to defend against galloping money rot.

Landing the plane

Still, such setbacks have done little more so far than knock the froth off the portfolio’s early promise.

Right now our annualised return is bang on average at 4.2%.3

However the next six years will have an outsized impact on the portfolio’s eventual fate due to sequence of returns risk.

If this was not a model portfolio but rather our life savings – and if we couldn’t afford to take a big loss from here on – then there’d be a strong case for allocating more to wealth-preserving, short-term inflation-linked bonds than we currently do.

Portfolio maintenance

We rebalance every year so that our portfolio doesn’t drift too far from our preset asset allocation.

Meanwhile our key equity/bond split is fixed at 60/40 for the remainder of the portfolio’s lifetime.

As the Developed World performed spectacularly in 2024 and bonds handed us another year of defeat, rebalancing amounts to selling off around 4% of our primary equities fund to plough into cheaper bonds.

Perhaps we’ll be rewarded for such saintliness in the next life – or maybe in the near future, if equities have a shocker in 2025.

Either way, remember rebalancing is about controlling your exposure to risk rather than juicing returns.

Our final move is to shift our 40% bond asset allocation by 2% per year until this sub-component is split 50/50 between conventional gilts and short-term index-linked bonds.

Which means that this quarter:

  • The Vanguard UK Government Bond index fund decreases to a 23% target allocation
  • The Royal London Short Duration Global Index Linked (GBP hedged) fund increases to a 17% target allocation

The reason for this is we believe short-term index-linked bonds help defend the purchasing power of a portfolio once you’re ready to spend it.

(See our No Cat Food decumulation portfolio for more on our thinking.)

Inflation adjustments

We increase our regular cash injections by RPI every year to maintain our inflation-adjusted contribution level.

This year’s inflation figure is 3.6%, and so we’ll invest £1,310 per quarter in 2025.

That’s an increase from £750 back in 2011. We’ve upped the amount we put in by 75% over the past 14 years simply to keep our nose ahead of inflation.

New transactions

Every quarter we’ll drip-feed £1,310 onto the stalagmites of our funds. This time our trades play out as follows:

UK equity

Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust – OCF 0.06%

Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63

New purchase: £72.87

Buy 0.262 units @ £277.74

Target allocation: 5%

Developed world ex-UK equities

Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund – OCF 0.14%

Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73

Rebalancing sale: £3222.39

Sell 4.46 units @ £722.32

Target allocation: 37%

Global small cap equities

Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund – OCF 0.29%

Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05

Rebalancing sale: £21.81

Sell 0.048 units @ £456.45

Target allocation: 5%

Emerging market equities

iShares Emerging Markets Equity Index Fund D – OCF 0.19%

Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642

Rebalancing sale: £161.45

Sell 77.532 units @ £2.08

Target allocation: 8%

Global property

iShares Environment & Low Carbon Tilt Real Estate Index Fund – OCF 0.18%

Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71

New purchase: £403.84

Buy 171.789 units @ £2.35

Target allocation: 5%

UK gilts

Vanguard UK Government Bond Index – OCF 0.12%

Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374

New purchase: £1434.45

Buy 10.985 units @ £130.58

Target allocation: 23%

Global inflation-linked bonds

Royal London Short Duration Global Index-Linked Fund – OCF 0.27%

Fund identifier: GB00BD050F05

New purchase: £2804.48

Buy 2653.248 units @ £1.06

Dividends reinvested: £196.10 (Buy another 185.52 units)

Target allocation: 17%

New investment contribution = £1,310

Trading cost = £0

Average portfolio OCF = 0.16%

User manual

Take a look at our broker comparison table for your best investment account options.

InvestEngine is currently cheapest if you’re happy to invest only in ETFs. Or learn more about choosing the cheapest stocks and shares ISA for your situation.

If this seems too complicated, check out our best multi-asset fund picks. These include all-in-one diversified portfolios such as the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds.

Interested in monitoring your own portfolio or using the Slow & Steady spreadsheet for yourself? Our piece on portfolio tracking shows you how.

You might also enjoy a refresher on why we think most people are best choosing passive vs active investing.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

  1. Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2019.  The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3), 1225-1298. []
  2. Dmitry Kuvshinov and Kaspar Zimmermann. 2021. The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run. Journal of Financial Economics, Forthcoming. []
  3. 2024’s annual inflation figure is currently estimated to be 2.5%. []
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Weekend Reading logo

What caught my eye this week.

Welcome back and Happy New Year! I hope you got just what you wanted for Christmas, and that you continue to get what you want for the rest of the year.

Well, just so long as what you want includes a sufficiently severe enough case of investing obsession to keep you coming back to Monevator throughout 2025.

Of course if you’re reading this article – and it’s not because you were sloppily Googling for old Mr Motivator videos to kickstart your fitness goals – then you’re probably already a bit of an investing nerd.

And that makes you unusual. Indeed I can’t remember a time when most people were less interested in shares.

If I allude to Monevator when meeting new people then I usually get more questions about crypto, side hustles, or buy-to-let than anything about the stock market.

In contrast, 20 years ago there were investing programmes on daytime TV and realms of coverage in the business pages.

That’s mostly all gone – and TikTok videos about YOLO-ing into MicroStrategy shares are a poor substitute.

A land of unbelievers

To the extent that this all reflects a sober move towards passive investing, I can hardly complain.

I might be a stock picking nutter but that’s not what I believe most people should do.

And while my co-blogger The Accumulator can bore for Blighty on the 4% rule – seriously, don’t get trapped with him in the kitchen at a party  – index fund investing is largely set-and-forget. There’s not much to make a TV show about.

However I don’t believe the eerie quiet really reflects a nation secretly growing rich on their global trackers.

The Financial Times just published data from Abrdn (sadly that’s not a typo) showing Britons have the ‘lowest appetite’ in the G7 when it comes to stock market investing:

Okay, we are doing well for investing in pensions. So perhaps there is a bit of slow and steady compounding in retirement accounts crowding out the enthusiasm for shares I recall from the past.

Moreover, the FT explains the sky-high US allocation to directly owning equities partly reflects that it has so many more very wealthy people. In contrast those of moderate means prefer to invest in housing.

Not that the US becoming so much richer than us is a comfort. But it is another story.

Spread the word

However you interpret this data, I think it’s a shame so few directly invest in equities.

Investing in the stock market made me financially independent in 20-odd years without a rockstar income.

And while there was certainly plenty of hard saving and a bit of luck (or even – cough – skill) in the mix, I still believe snowballing your way to financial freedom via the stock market is an aspiration open to everyone, not just the rich.

If you do too then let’s spread the word to more of our countrymen and women in 2025.

I’ll do my bit with this website. But how will you get your friends and family to tune in?

Besides regularly sending them Monevator articles, I mean.

Let us know in the comments, and have a great weekend – and a great year.

p.s. A quick thanks after dozens of new Monevator members signed up following my Christmas post. I’m a bit flummoxed as to why this call to action did so well, to be honest. But my hunch is the stream of generous comments from existing members played a part. Social proof is a powerful force and reading so many people saying nice things probably reassured a few more into joining us. So thank you!

[continue reading…]

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Amateur activist [Members]

Monevator Moguls logo

You weren’t rewarded for contrarianism in 2024.

If you decided in January that enthusiasm for A.I.-related companies looked frothy, US indices seemed stretched, and that as inflation eased and rates normalised we’d surely see a rotation into something – anything – other than the same half-dozen and a bit tech behemoths that drove returns in 2023, then woe betide you for having ideas above your station.

This article can be read by selected Monevator members. Please see our membership plans and consider joining! Already a member? Sign in here.
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