Good reads from around the Web.
This week saw the media, the pundits, and even the politicians come alive to the fact that the 300-year old United Kingdom might imminently be torn asunder by what seems to be a chess gambit gone wrong.
Even more amusing/tragic is that this fight is being waged by leaders who boast all the gravitas of the Mr Men in a pillow fight.
I’m not going to get into the politics or even the economics of the situation. There are plenty doing a better job than I could, including what it might mean for investors.
Personally, I started considering the impact of Scottish independence years ago.
And so did the market.
Odd behaviour
As a whole, the market is clever enough to have spotted this referendum was coming, even if most of us seemingly forgot about it.
The moves we saw earlier this week in the pound and in some UK shares – especially on Monday – reflected the market adjusting to a surprisingly tight poll, not a sudden awareness of the possibility of Scottish independence. That’s long been priced in.
I’ve noticed some people struggle with the idea that something can be ‘priced in’ and yet there’s still volatility and uncertainty.
For a colourful analogy, you might think of a horse race – only one where hidden somewhere in the stands is a sniper with a grudge against horses.
As the race begins, the odds are whatever was determined by the betting at the bookies. They reflect the sum total of the best guesses of everyone who has put their money where their mouth is.
Once the race begins and horses begin to drop, the odds of winning change. Some victims are out of the running. Other horses now look better placed. Eventually some gamblers might even spot – or think they spot – a pattern as to which horse the sniper will turn on next. This could give them an edge.
If a 33-1 outsider gallops over and away from its competitors to victory, it doesn’t mean such a victory wasn’t priced in.
It was priced in – at 33-1.
The initial odds priced in what was known, to the best of everyone’s conflicting interpretation.
But things change. It’s not about black or white, but rather lightening and darkening shades of grey.
We’ll see
Luckily, horse racing isn’t a blood sport and nor – as much as both sides might deserve a custard pie in the face – is the Scottish Independence campaign.
Besides, despite all the media narratives and panicking politicians, the FTSE 100 index doesn’t seem very much more bothered by the prospect of Scottish independence than whatever was priced in last week.
I just watched a CNBC presenter wrap up a piece on the ‘mayhem’ in UK share prices with a cut to the closing figures for the UK, French, German and Italian markets for the week. She was shocked – the UK was the best performer.
Now admittedly that’s probably partly because the coincident weaker pound is so good for so many UK companies.
But still, if you think what we saw this week in share prices was panic then you’ve forgotten what it was like in 2008.
For what it’s worth I strongly suspect “No” will carry the day, and I think the market does too.
But that doesn’t mean it’s complacent. It means it’s handicapping the odds, and those are the way they stand right now.
Odds are not certainties. That’s what the vote is for.


