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They don’t tax free time

Hamster on a wheel: At least he doesn’t pay income tax

This is a bit of a meandering and personal rant. Feel free to skip it!

A new year, a wobbly stock market, and naturally a young not-so-young investor’s thoughts turn towards topping up his SIPP.

And as I pondered how big a lump sum to shock and awe the boys down at Hargreaves Lansdown with, two factors came to mind:

  • From April, dividends will be taxed more heavily.
  • Pensions are going to be revised again in the March Budget, too, and it’s unlikely that Monevator readers’ many sensible suggestions will be in the driving seat.

I’ve been self-employed for most of my working life, but I’ve only been set up as a Limited Company for about a third of it.

And to be honest, my earnings have only really been big enough to make much difference how I paid myself for the last four or five years.

(Before then I was mostly on borderline artist-in-a-garret rates, at least compared to my conventional London friends).

Now if I do nothing from April, the new dividend tax rates mean my tax bill will be around £2,000 higher than it would have been under the old system – thanks to a 6% rise in my effective tax rate.

We debated whether this was fair when the change came in, so let’s put that to one side.

What interests me now is how I find myself responding.

Fund-a-mentally

I’ll say right away that I’m not a very money motivated person.

That might strike you as an insane comment to make, given that I run a personal finance website and spend half my days clucking over my ever-growing nest egg.

But it’s sort of true.

I’ve never followed any line of work for the pay check, really (as my employers from my 20s would no doubt gleefully confirm).

And I don’t spend much money, either.

In fact I probably look like a bit of disaster to some of my peers.

What matters to me is freedom to do what I like – or more accurately to avoid doing what I don’t like.

That’s why I am self-employed, and why I far prefer to work from home.

It’s also my motivation for investing: I find everything about conventional work suffocating.

I don’t want a freedom fund or even a f***-you fund.

It’s more like a survival fund for me.

You’re having a half!

Given my ambivalence towards slaving away for mere money, taxation is a vexing issue.

Without wanting to get political (my post-Thatcher reflections were a better place for that, or even – contrarily – my lament about income inequality) I’m happy paying roughly 20% or so in income taxes.

And I guess I can live with 25-30%.

Any more tax than that and I strongly suspect I’m just supporting other people’s lifestyle choices, rather than the essentials of State and a worthwhile safety net.

Unfortunately, add together corporation tax and the new dividend tax and I will be paying an effective 46% tax rate1 on any income over £43,000 or so – and in reality I’ll be paying it well before then, given my portfolio still has unsheltered savings, bonds, and equities outside of my ISAs and SIPP, where any cash returned will register as income.

Now £43,000 might strike some of you as a lot of income, depending on how and where you live.

But trust me it’s very mediocre among my peers in London.

Yet striving to boost my income – only to hand over almost half of the extra to the Government?

I find the thought pretty demotivating.

Confused future pensioner

One obvious solution is to direct all the would-be higher-rated income into my SIPP instead.

As I say, I’m not in the mega-earner category or anything like it. So this could effectively shelter (or at least postpone) a good swathe of my income from the new dividend tax meat cleaver.

But sadly, that’s where those upcoming pension changes start to worry me.

Could George Osborne bring in new restrictions, or even retrospective measures?

It wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Friday’s off – tax-free

I have plenty of other thoughts swirling around about all this.

For example, it makes clear yet again how much better it would be to own my own home from a tax perspective.

While I desperately try to grow my investment portfolio as tax-efficiently as I can and to keep manageable the tax take on my income that after all has to pay the rent, my friends who own their own places see their (lottery winning) tax-free capital gains roll up year after year after year.

Of course they’re not paying tax on the imputed rent element of their home equity, either.

And then they bewilderingly declare that their £750,000-£1 million property is not a financial asset, just to further annoy me.

Home ownership in this country really is the killer tax break that keeps giving.

But with London prices having moved from extreme to insane to “oh, so this is what my grandmother meant when she said flinched at 50p for a bag of chips that used to cost a ha’penny”, that’s for another day.2

No, I’m thinking I should simply forget about earning more money.

Instead I could keep my lifestyle costs low and pay myself with free time.

Yes it will delay financial independence by a few years.

But given the upcoming tax whack and the unsheltered assets I’m already struggling to tuck away into ISAs each year, not by so much as it might.

And best of all?

They don’t tax free time.

(Yet.)

Note: Thoughtful responses about how you personally address these conundrums very welcome, but ad hominem attacks declaring that since I earn more than you or your cousin Nigel I should be happy I don’t pay 80% tax rates will probably be deleted.

  1. Note: 46%, NOT 52.5%. The combined corporation tax and income tax rate for a higher rate tax payer is 20% corporation tax plus (80% of 32.5%) on the dividend, which equals 46%. []
  2. Or another country. Or another part of the country. Either would help deal with the income issue, too, in that I’d almost certainly have to earn less. []
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The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q4 2015

The portfolio made 1.03% in 2015.

Remarkably, our Slow & Steady passive portfolio now has five candles on its birthday cake. And while its growth rate won’t make anyone’s wishes come true overnight, the portfolio is piling on the pounds at a textbook rate that’s comfortably in line with expectations.

We’ve made an annualised gain of 6.8% over the five years, which amounts to a real return of just over 4% a year once you knock off inflation.

That puts the Slow & Steady ahead of the FTSE All-Share, which grew a nominal 6% annualised over the last half decade. Exciting.

Our portfolio has been buoyed by a large slug of US equities, which put on 13% per year over the five-year period. There’s one in the eye for the many over the years who advised trimming the US because it’s overvalued. Those naughty market-timers!

The US does look frothy by the light of the tools we have available but those measures only explain about 40% of the variation in returns.

In other words, trying to outfox the market is quite likely to leave you out of pocket.

Meanwhile, emerging markets – supposedly the only economic bright spot on the horizon when we first started the Slow & Steady project – are the one asset class that’s really dragged us down, losing an annualised 3.88% over five years.

So much for the moribund West and the Asian Century, eh? At least as far as our cache of capitalism is concerned to-date.

Agreeably average

Despite the inherent unpredictability of the markets, our 4% annualised gain sails very close to the 3.8% return we’d have expected from a 70:30 portfolio based on the UK’s historical growth rates for equities and gilts1.

Really, this is a statistical quirk. We can’t expect portfolios that are riding on market turbulence to habitually deliver the historical average, especially over a relatively short five-year run.

But it does go towards showing that a passive portfolio can be expected to deliver reasonable returns over time using little more than a consistent, diversified, low-cost strategy and a steady dripfeed of cash.

Micromanagement as a response to the worries of the world is just guessing – and markets will always fluctuate. For example, despite losing nearly 8% in six months earlier this year, we’ve ended up just over 1% on the past twelve.

Here’s our regular spreadsheet snapshot:

193. S&S Q4 2015_portfolio

Note: Global Prop, Dev World, Small Cap and Inflation Linked bonds show one year returns. (Click to enlarge).

In raw cash, we’re up 21.23% since we started. That’s a £3,862 gain on total contributions of £18,130.

The Slow & Steady portfolio is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000 and an extra £880 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, heavily tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and catch up on all the previous passive portfolio posts here.

New Year, same plan

While others attempt to rebalance their lives and maybe lose a few kilos – New Year, New You style – we prefer to rebalance our portfolio and trim our equities.

Each year we shift 2% from our equity allocation over to UK government bonds.

This is known as lifestyling and it’s designed to lower the risk level of your portfolio as you run out of years left to recover from the large stock market crash that lurks around the corner. (We just don’t know which corner.)

When it happens (not if) we’ll be relying on our boring bonds to be our portfolio counterweight – limiting the depth of our plummet by pulling in the opposite direction. (We hope).

  • In our first five years we’ve moved from a highly aggressive 80:20 equity:bond split to a still fairly fearsome 70:30.
  • In another five years, we’ll have moved to a borderline bellicose 60:40.

As of now, we have 15 years left on the portfolio’s investing clock, and I’m comfortable with the level of risk this far out.

The 2% equities cutback is going to come from our UK fund. We’ll add 1% to the conventional UK government bond fund and 1% to our inflation-protected UK government bond fund.

Currently the portfolio is a little slanted towards UK equities in comparison to the wisdom we’re receiving from the world’s investment crowd.

The UK makes up about 7% of global stock market capitalisation right now. That means we should give it around a 5% slice of our total portfolio, once you take into account that we’re 70% in equities.

Originally the Slow & Steady portfolio was more heavily biased towards home but subsequent research has led me to conclude this is just a comfort blanket.

I’m weening myself off it over time.

All a question of rebalance

Next we’re going to rebalance the portfolio back to its target asset allocations.

Ordinarily, we only rebalance if an asset veers wildly off course – more than 25% above or below its target allocation (or after a 5% change if the asset represents more than 20% of portfolio).

This annual move, like the shift to bonds, is a risk management exercise. Our aim is to try to ensure the portfolio doesn’t get overloaded with riskier assets.

The upshot of this rebalancing back to our (predetermined) asset allocations is we’ll be putting a lot of money into bonds – less risky assets – and Emerging Markets – risky but seemingly cheap at the mo’.

In the case of emerging markets we’re also hoping for a rebalancing bonus – buying an asset when it’s relatively inexpensive and capitalising when (if) it bounces back in the years ahead.

But again, it’s important to stress we’re not making a judgement call here – rather we’re just staying in line with the asset allocation we previously set.

Finally, we need to adjust for inflation. We invested £870 per quarter in 2015 but RPI has gone up by about 1.1% over the year. So from now on we’ll need to top-up our quarterly contribution by a tenner to £880 to account for cash’s loss of value.

Incoming!

Q4 is income bonanza time for our funds. They paid out £313.23 in dividends and interest, which we’ve promptly fed back into the growth machine courtesy of our automated accumulation funds.

Here’s how our income massed up:

  • UK equities: £80.31
  • Developed world equities: £159.37
  • Global small cap equities: £4.82
  • Emerging markets equities: £36.15
  • Global property: £18.86
  • UK Government bond index: £13.72

Total dividends: £313.23

New transactions

We’re lobbing another £880 into the market’s maw while rebalancing each fund back to its target asset allocation. That means:

UK equity

Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust – OCF 0.08%

Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63

Rebalancing sale: £369.97

Sell 2.391 units @ £154.77

Target allocation: 8%

Dividends last quarter: £80.31

Developed world ex-UK equities

Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund – OCF 0.15%

Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73

New purchase: £50

Buy 0.221 units @ £226.27

Target allocation: 38%

Dividends last quarter: £159.37

Global small cap equities

Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund – OCF 0.38%

Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05

No trade

Target allocation: 7%

Dividends last quarter: £4.82

Emerging market equities

BlackRock Emerging Markets Equity Tracker Fund D – OCF 0.24%

Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642

New purchase: £396.03

Buy 400.432 units @ £0.99

Target allocation: 10%

Dividends last quarter: £36.15

Global property

BlackRock Global Property Securities Equity Tracker Fund D – OCF 0.23%

Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71

No trade

Target allocation: 7%

Dividends last quarter: £18.86

UK gilts

Vanguard UK Government Bond Index – OCF 0.15%

Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374

New purchase: £382.55

Buy 2.66 units @ £143.80

Target allocation: 15%

Dividends last quarter: £13.72

UK index-linked gilts

Vanguard UK Inflation-Linked Gilt Index Fund – OCF 0.15%

Fund identifier: GB00B45Q9038

New purchase: £421.39

Buy 2.853 units @ £147.71

Target allocation: 15%

Total dividends = £313.23

New investment = £880

Trading cost = £0

Platform fee = 0.25% per annum.

This model portfolio is notionally held with Charles Stanley Direct. You can use that company’s monthly investment option to invest from £50 per fund. Just cancel the option after you’ve traded if you don’t want to make the same investment next month.

Take a look at our online broker table for other good platform options. Look at flat fee brokers if your portfolio is worth substantially more than £20,000.

Average portfolio OCF = 0.17%

If all this seems too much like hard work then you could instead buy a diversified portfolio using an all-in-one fund such as Vanguard’s LifeStrategy series.

Take it steady,
The Accumulator

  1. Historical growth rates from the Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2015 minus 0.1% fund costs. Fund costs already subtracted from the Slow & Steady portfolio results. []
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Star Wars gift giving

Here at Monevator Towers we’ve hung the Out to Christmas *hiccup* Lunch shingle on the door, and we won’t be back until 2016.

Are you stuck for a last-minute Christmas present – or maybe something to help with those long days incarcerated enjoying quality time with the family?

Here are a few of 2015’s best new money-related reads to get you and your family and friends more Monevated:

The Devil’s Financial Dictionary – Jason Zweig spells out everything that’s wrong with how we think about money and investing. Funny.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction – All the cool kids are reading it. If you’re skeptical about people’s prospects of making accurate forecasts, then this is the book for you. (And if your uncle is skeptical, then this is the book for him.)

Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioural Economics – Brainy effort from the grandfather of behavioural economics. (Before you click through, have a think about which bias you’re about to exhibit…)

The Rise of the Robots – 2015 was the year that the puny apes who call themselves Earthlings finally began to consider their upcoming doom at the hands of their AI superiors [oops – did I print that out loud? reboot! reboot!]. Martin Ford’s account won FT/McKinsey Book of the Year for outlining the human dimension.

Other People’s Money – Veteran UK economist and author John Kay has had enough of the financial sector siphoning away our wealth. Persuasive.

Charlie Munger: The Complete Investor – Trent Griffin (himself no lowly player in the lifetime achievement stakes) has been studying Warren Buffett’s brilliant sidekick for a few years now. This book brings together all the wit and wisdom of every armchair investor’s favourite nonagenarian.

The Art of Execution – Blame the rise of passive investing or the miserable performance of the UK stock market in recent years, but it hasn’t been a vintage period for hands-on investing books. This one stood out for its unusual spin; it considers how the most successful investors manage to put up great returns despite picking duffers. The reviews are strong; I haven’t actually read it myself yet. (It’s on my Kindle, ready for the Queen’s Speech.)

A Wealth of Common Sense – Ben Carlson’s collected writings are the nearest thing I can offer to die-hard passive investors from the 2015 crop of new investing books – not because Carlson’s a purist, but because his engaging and thoughtful writing will lead pretty much everyone to the conclusion that indexing and rebalancing and otherwise ignoring the market is best for their wealth. Great blogger, too.

Thanks for reading in 2015 – and see you next year!

 

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How To Lose Money in 2016

A sad investing clown, yesterday.

HEY YOU!

Do you have too much money?

Are you feeling guilty about rising inequality – and are you brave enough to personally do something about it?

Perhaps you’re fed up with your friends entertaining each other with stories about how they lost the lot on their stock picks or were ripped-off by a pension provider – and now you see that your sensible investing mindset is good for your wallet but bad for your pub cred?

Or maybe you just watched Brewster’s Millions too many times as a kid?

Well fear not!

A brand new year is almost upon us, and with it the chance to turn over a new leaf to ensure you don’t make a single bright penny when you could be chucking one away instead!

If you want to lose money as an investor, then this is the guide for you.

These Seven Top Tips to Self-Destructing Your Wealth in 2016 will have you turned away by the bouncers at the 1% Club faster than you can say: “World’s Worst Investment Strategy.”

Get ready to lose the lot!

1. Sign up to some bearish investing websites

Good investing starts with a long-term businesslike mindset, so to really invest badly, it’s vital you start rotting your thinking without delay.

Where better to begin than by overdosing on some of the doom and gloom newsletters that have been predicting Financial Armageddon since, well, the start of the last bull market?

They’ll have you swapping your carefully chosen funds and shares for baked beans and survival kits in no time.

Ideally find one that offers occasional tips on Russian gold miners, Panamanian oil explorers and the like.

That way you’ll get twice the bang for your buck.

2. Buy shares tipped by crazy-sounding people on social media

Once you’ve got an appropriately short-term trader-orientated pseudo-investing mentality going on, you’re ready to start pumping away your money on duffers.

Sure, you could swap your cheap and effective trackers for expensive actively-managed funds.

But now upfront commission has been done away with, high cost active funds are more for gentle folk who only want to do relatively badly when investing.

We’re trying to really crash and burn here!

Most fund managers are smart, not stupid. That’s why they find it so hard to beat each other and their index – and it’s why very few proper funds actually blow-up.

If you’re lucky you might have access to some sort of hard-charging 2/20% style hedge fund pursuing an esoteric investing strategy that’s ripe for a fall – perhaps emerging market or energy related high yield debt in today’s climate – but most of us would-be losers aren’t so fortunate.

No, for us the old way remains the best way to lose money – churning an ever-changing concentrated portfolio of loss-making story stocks that are kept alive by little more than a hope and a prayer.

A great way to begin is to buy shares tipped by a stranger you’ve never heard of called something like UltraBu11ish!Penguin443.

You don’t know anyone named like that?

Don’t worry – these people are a doddle to find on Twitter or on other social media platforms or discussion boards.

If you’re really lucky, he or she will claim inside information, or possibly reveal the existence of a ‘big seller’ who is about to stop dumping the shares, clearing the ‘overhang’ and enabling a rally.

(Fear not – the rally will never materialize and you’ll see your shares comfortably dwindle away towards nothing as you wait).

Alternatively, the tipster’s long experience of investing in the stock market whenever the High Street betting shops have closed might give them insights into the wily ways of market makers, enabling them to spot when these dastardly City folk are ‘shaking trees’.

Note: You don’t have to know what on earth ‘shaking trees’ is all about.

To lose money you just need to slavishly buy whatever they tip, sit back, and watch your portfolio plummet in a matter of days.

Easy!

3. Trade as much as possible

Studies have shown that those who trade the least tend to have the best performing portfolios.

So to lose money as quickly as possible, it makes sense to constantly churn your shares like it’s illegal to actually own the things.

Mobile phones have made this easier than ever. Perhaps you could do a bit of surreptitious trading at work, whenever you visit the bathroom or during particularly boring presentations?

Also, try to sell low and buy high.

This will maximise the speed at which you lose money.

4. Ignore trading costs

One reason turning over your portfolio is expensive is because trading costs money.

Sure, you can trade frustratingly cheaply with online brokers nowadays, but if you can wrack up 5-10 trades a day then you will soon offset their stupidly low charges.

Remember, it’s not just the multiple dealing fees that will be losing you money.

You’ll also pay the spread between the buying and selling price on the shares, and Stamp Duty is usually payable at 0.5% a pop when you buy a share in the UK, too.

A truly madcap day-trading approach is ideal, as it brings together the power of short-term myopic emotional investing, your compounded trading costs, and all that awful advice you’re now getting from your new friends on Twitter.

5. Borrow money to invest

It’s possible that even after following these tips you’re still not losing money at a rate that makes you comfortable shopping exclusively for yellow-stickered Best Before bargains at a grocer that’s being closed down for health and safety reasons.

So if you’re still suffering from excessive wealth – or you just want to get poorer faster – know that borrowing to invest is an ideal way to accelerate your plans.

Normally when you buy a share – even the sort of awful pump-and-dump penny stocks you’ll be specializing in – the most you can lose is all the money you put in.

Sounds a lot, sure. But losing it all can take months or even years.

However if you borrow and then buy with the proceeds, you can actually lose more money than you have and end up in debt!

This will help you lose all your money far faster than you might have thought possible before.

What’s more, punting on penny stocks with borrowed money raises the chances that you’ll make terrible short-term decisions in a panic, adding fuel to the self-immolating fire.

And if you’re really lucky you could end up trying to dig yourself out of the red with a series of ludicrous long shots that all go wrong!

Now the bad news – your bank manager is unlikely to actually give you any money to fritter away on the stock market.

Instead you might have to get creative with credit cards and other forms of misappropriated and hugely expensive debt.

Making ginormous spreadbets you don’t understand is another easy way to magnify how much you can lose with your ill-informed wagers.

Finally, do explore so-called ‘leveraged ETFs’, which multiply the daily ups and downs of the index that they track.

Best of all are leveraged ‘short’ ETFs, where the idea is you make money if the market which they follow goes down.

The way short ETFs are structured, you can lose money if you hold them for a few days or weeks – even if the underlying market actually does fall!

Genius.

If you don’t understand why this is the case (and very few people do) then they should be an ideal addition to your arsenal of money losing hand grenades.

6. Avoid ISAs and pension wrappers

If you follow all these tips, the chances of you making any money from investing in 2016 are very slim indeed.

However even a loser can get lucky once.

Perhaps somebody nefariously ramps one of your penny stocks while you’re spreadbetting in the men’s room – and now you’re faced with a massive winner on your hands!

Well, one way to ensure you keep as little of your capital gains as possible is to always invest outside of tax efficient ISAs and pensions.

This way you could be liable for capital gains tax when you sell – and if you receive any dividend income then you may well have to pay tax on that, too.

By shunning ISAs and pensions you stand the best chance of giving up a chunk of any profits that you should accidentally happen to make.

7. For professionals only: Fraudsters and boiler rooms

If you’re a mature professional who has enjoyed a lot of success in life, you probably feel that you’ve earned the right to avoid all this rigmarole when you want something done fast.

Well, the good news is you won’t necessarily have to get your hands dirty to be relieved of all your hard-earned wealth.

No, there’s an entire subterranean industry of hucksters, con men, scam artists and other criminals who just can’t wait to tell you about an investment that’s right for you.

An investment that will earn you at least 22% a year, and that is extremely timely (in fact, you might only have until next Tuesday to instruct your bank to wire them £39,232).

At this point though you and I must part ways.

You see, being a humble sort I’ve never been fortunate enough to be called by somebody who only has my best intentions at heart, and who for some reason wants me to get the guaranteed rock solid gains that they could otherwise enjoy for themselves.

However I do know from numerous consumer watchdog programs, regulatory warnings, biographies of gangsters and so forth that these things invariably end in tears.

So go ahead and ‘invest’ in that once in a lifetime opportunity – in the sure and certain knowledge that you’ll in no way derail your plans to end up far poorer at the end of 2016 than you began.

As they never said on Hill Street Blues

Let’s not be careful out there!

Note: If you’re a boring old traditionalist who wants to grow their wealth over the long-term rather than blow up in a blaze of glory, simply do the opposite of everything in this article to hugely improve your returns. But really, where’s the fun in that? You must be a hoot at parties!

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