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Weekend reading: You say you want your freedom

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What caught my eye this week.

I read an interesting article this week about a former US politician who now lives in France.

The gist is that having failed to transform US society to his more liberal tastes – we’d say socialist in the UK – the former Democrat Jim McDermott chose to move to France instead:

Today McDermott calls himself an immigrant. He lives alone. He barely speaks French. But he’s a big fan of the French motto ‘Liberté, égalité, fraternité,’ and says that communal spirit is evident both in his everyday interactions with his neighbors and how the French government treats its people.

When he arrived in France, he needed to fill a few prescriptions but didn’t have a French primary care doctor. The pharmacist looked at his empty pill bottles and refilled them, no questions asked. When McDermott finally got a French physician, he received a brand-new CPAP machine at no cost. A month later, someone came to make sure it was working properly.

“Coming to France is like a drink of cold water,” he says. “Once you’ve had this experience, it’s easy to see all the ways in the U.S. you’re getting screwed — well, not screwed per se, but definitely overcharged.”

It’s a thought-provoking admission, albeit one that recalls a challenge often issued by the far right: “If you don’t like how things are, why don’t you F-off leave then?”

(Well, because many people cannot, realistically, for starters. But let’s put that to one side for now.)

Go your own way

I remember being struck 30-odd years ago by the politics of Neal Stephenson’s novel Snow Crash.

This science-fiction classic is today remembered mostly for what it foresaw – and got wrong, of course – about technology, especially the coming Internet-everywhere era.

But Stephenson’s portrayal of a world where people signed-up to join different ‘affinities’ that most matched their personal politics – with financial and legal consequences, and regardless of geography – was striking, too.

No nationalism. Extreme individualism.

Going through my student-y anarchist phase at the time (in an academic sense) I’m not sure I even recognised this as the dystopian vision I’d now clearly see it as.

I’ve heard that some ultra-libertarian sorts in the US still don’t get the joke, and consider Snow Crash a bit of a Bible.

It’s not hard to see how signing up to a regime of very low taxes, a fine-based legal system, and a policy of extreme neutrality, say, might appeal to those whose appetites were whetted by William Rees-Mogg’s also prophetic The Sovereign Individual.

And to be fair, after the Brexit schism in the UK and looking at polarised party politics in the US, the appeal of only having to deal with, support, and be held accountable by those who share your values is pretty relatable, whichever side you’re on.

Little lies

Let’s say you believe, like I approximately do, that we should have a flat and ultra-simplified tax rate of perhaps 30%, across all income and gains, 0% corporation tax, that the state does too much for the wealthy (and older) middle class but not enough to lift up the young and properly poor, and that the very rich should pay a wealth tax. (Maybe 1% annually on assets over £5m – and they should be publicly lauded and celebrated for it, too).

I’ll never be able to vote for such fiscal policy. Existing parties might even see some of those desires as contradictory. (I don’t think they are, but that’s my point).

Wouldn’t it be nice if I could opt into a group who shared my views?

Well yes, until you think about the realities.

What ‘club’ with the means to actually support them would welcome in the poor and hopeless?

What to do with the unrepresented and destitute outside your front door?

Who pays for the army and the border police?

And so on.

Snow Crash touches on these issues, as well as offering (from ancient memory) satirical solutions. Private security, obviously, and swarms of nano-bots that keep the individual safe from rival factions.

Moving to another country, like the former US politician did, seems more practical in the real world .

Through this lens, our intractable immigration issues might be seen in a more generous light as a vote for Western-style capitalism with a safety net, as much as the global poor wanting to share our material prosperity.

I’ve even half-joked to friends that perhaps countries could opt-into being governed by wealthier neighbours. That the US, say, could operate overseas on a sort of franchise system.

(I suppose some would argue this is what the EU does on its Eastern flank. But that’s a can of worms for another day!)

Landslide

I’m curious: as it’s an election year, what would your perfect national political party offer in terms of tax, spending, and personal finance and investing?

Share your thoughts in the comments below. (But let’s not get into third-rail, off-topic political stuff like the death penalty or defunding the police or whatnot. I’ve tried to stick to the financial stuff, please reciprocate…)

Have a great weekend.

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Choose your fighter [Members]

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Should you ever find yourself researching a couple of meme stocks du jour for a long article, plan accordingly. Block out 48 hours – ideally a weekend – and get in the snacks. Warn your significant other you won’t be showering. Type like fury.

When I decided a fortnight ago that the more-or-less mutual debuts of Trump Media & Technology Group (Ticker: DJT) and Reddit (Ticker: RDDT) on the New York Stock Exchange could make for an interesting Moguls post, I didn’t expect a quiet life.

This article can be read by selected Monevator members. Please see our membership plans and consider joining! Already a member? Sign in here.
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The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q1 2024

How quickly things can change! Another bumper quarter for global equities has helped to chase the blues away like a glimpse of spring sun.

Our Slow & Steady model portfolio has plumped up 3.7% in the last three months. That’s on top of the 7% gain the quarter before that.

Overall, annualised returns are now back to a healthy 7%. Call it 4% after inflation. If you own an equity-heavy passive portfolio you’ll be happier still.

Here are the numbers, in Zippity-Doo-Dah-o-vision™:

The Slow & Steady portfolio is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000. An extra £1,264 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and find all the previous passive portfolio posts in the Monevator vaults.

While much of Q4’s rise was accounted for by a surge in government bonds and property they’ve both subsided a little since.

Instead we’re back to the established routine: US large caps as the motor of our passive portfolio.

Our Developed World fund had approximately 50% in the US when we first invested back in 2011. Now that allocation has climbed to over 70% – a worryingly high exposure to a richly-valued stock market and an economy stoked on government stimulus.

The Investor wrote an excellent piece for Mavens on how to think through this situation, including your options for taking evasive action.

He also turned up a Larry Swedroe article on just how hot the US market would have to run to repeat the returns of the last decade.

In short: we’d need a Tech Bubble Part II to get anywhere close.

Needless to say I won’t be selling the Slow & Steady’s equity allocation to plough it 100% into an S&P 500 ETF anytime soon.

However neither am I about to advocate for a wholesale shift into a World ex-US tracker.

American idle

For one thing, the Slow & Steady portfolio is only 28% US large caps when you take the whole portfolio into account.

And even if we did dilute the Developed World fund’s US holding back down to the 50% level where we first invested, the US large cap allocation would only be reduced to 20% of the total portfolio.

Said differently – the portfolio is already adequately diversified. If Big Tech’s future returns are sub-par, a 28% to 20% shift won’t make a huge difference.

Secondly, nobody is predicting negative returns for the US. Just that the market must surely mean revert – and that some other region must surely take the lead for a while – because the S&P 500 doesn’t win every decade.

I’ve been reading predictions like this for more than a decade. Nobody can make a strong case for any other market besides, “it’s cheap.”

Mean reversion is not a physical law. It’s a pattern found in the last 100 years of data. It doesn’t mean that cheap markets can’t get cheaper.

The Russian market looked awesome value before the Ukraine War. I’m glad I didn’t bet my shirt on those stocks.

In my personal portfolio, I siphoned off cash to deploy in emerging markets and UK equities for years because they were cheap. That hasn’t worked.

It did teach me a useful lesson about trying to outwit the market though.

I can’t do it.

New transactions

Every quarter we nourish our portfolio with £1,264 of investment fertiliser. This fresh muck and brass is split between our portfolio’s seven funds, according to our predetermined asset allocation.

We rebalance using Larry Swedroe’s 5/25 rule. That hasn’t been activated this quarter, so the trades play out as follows:

UK equity

Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust – OCF 0.06%

Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63

New purchase: £63.20

Buy 0.24 units @ £262.85

Target allocation: 5%

Developed world ex-UK equities

Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund – OCF 0.14%

Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73

New purchase: £467.68

Buy 0.722 units @ £647.54

Target allocation: 37%

Global small cap equities

Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund – OCF 0.29%

Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05

New purchase: £63.20

Buy 0.148 units @ £428.36

Target allocation: 5%

Emerging market equities

iShares Emerging Markets Equity Index Fund D – OCF 0.19%

Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642

New purchase: £101.12

Buy 53.63 units @ £1.89

Target allocation: 8%

Global property

iShares Environment & Low Carbon Tilt Real Estate Index Fund – OCF 0.18%

Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71

New purchase: £63.20

Buy 27.95 units @ £2.26

Target allocation: 5%

UK gilts

Vanguard UK Government Bond Index – OCF 0.12%

Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374

New purchase: £316

Buy 2.355 units @ £134.21

Target allocation: 25%

Global inflation-linked bonds

Royal London Short Duration Global Index-Linked Fund – OCF 0.27%

Fund identifier: GB00BD050F05

New purchase: £189.60

Buy 179.546 units @ £1.056

Target allocation: 15%

New investment contribution = £1,264

Trading cost = £0

Take a look at our broker comparison table for your best investment account options. InvestEngine is currently cheapest if you’re happy to invest only in ETFs. Or learn more about choosing the cheapest stocks and shares ISA for your circumstances.

Average portfolio OCF = 0.16%

If this all seems too complicated check out our best multi-asset fund picks. These include all-in-one diversified portfolios, such as the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds.

Interested in tracking your own portfolio or using the Slow & Steady investment tracking spreadsheet? Our piece on portfolio tracking shows you how.

Finally, learn more about why we think most people are best choosing passive vs active investing.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

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Weekend reading: The Trading Game

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What caught my eye this week.

Every decade or so, some rebellious storyteller escapes out the back door of an investment bank, breaks the code of omertà, and tells all on how top-tier financial services really work.

Michael Lewis and Liar’s Poker in the 1980s. Nick Leeson with Rogue Trader in the 1990s. Why I Left Goldman Sachs by Greg Smith in 2012.

And now Gary Stevenson with The Trading Game.

Think the lovechild of Liar’s Poker and Rogue Trader combined with a dash of Thomas Piketty on the side. You won’t be able to put it down, unless you hate swearing or laughing out loud.

You’ll probably learn something, too. I certainly did.

All the usual tropes are present. The ninth dan obscenities. Wanton moneymaking. The guys who can’t say no to anything, including just another day in the office.

In some ways it’s almost a relief.

I mean, I’m as allergic to excessive wokery as the next Gen X-er, and it’s honestly nice to hear that filthy-mouthed fishwives could still find soulmates in the City, if only they could make it to the 35th floor of the appropriate temple of finance.

On the other hand, if Stevenson is to be believed – and he comes across as very believable – then the Monopoly money mentality of bankers quickly shrugged off the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

And that’s not so easy to cheer.

The remunerative mill

It’s hard to remember now how revered bankers were, before the sub-prime crash turned credit crisis.

The market was always right, we’d been told. Risk had been smoothed away. A bunch of my university peers went to work for big banks – you’d think they’d joined the priesthood.

When the financial system tottered in 2008 and 2009, they got a bashing of course. Yet how much has really changed?

Most of my complaints from 2009 about financial services – especially its ludicrous salaries – still seem true today.

Consider, say, vanilla equity fund managers. Almost all nice people as far as I can tell. They work hard, speak eloquently, and yet nearly all fail at the one thing they’re paid to do – beat their benchmark. A return an index fund can deliver for ten basis points nowadays.

These managers are still paid very handsomely, every year. Even as passive investing eats up their assets as inexorably as The Blob.

Imagine if highly-paid dentists routinely left your teeth worse than they found them – and yet still got, well, highly-paid.

Wouldn’t something change?

Maybe the high pay is inevitable. My longstanding theory is an excess income is just a perk of any job that involves dealing with a lot of money.

This sounds trite but I’m serious.

Working in the money mine

Back in school a friend’s mum had a job at the Smiths crisps factory. There were always boxes of crisps at their house.

When I volunteered in a charity clothes shop on Saturday as a student, we got the first pick of the fresh donations.

An estate agent I knew didn’t even bother to list the best doer-uppers that came to him. He did them up himself.

Get a job in the video games industry and you get free Xbox games. Work behind a bar and you’ll never be short of a drink.

Secure a role in finance and there’s money everywhere. Soon some of it will fall into your pockets. You don’t even have to do anything illegal.

There’s a scene early in The Trading Game, where Stevenson makes £77,000 for his employer in a few minutes – just apropos of a casual, random conversation with the bloke at the desk next to him. He’s not yet even a proper trader with his own P/L at this point.

Moreover just a year or two later he’s able to put on a ten-figure trade, apparently because his new boss doesn’t know what his real job is.

As Joachim Klement says in his review at Klement on Investing:

The key achievement of Gary is that he paints his colleagues and himself as both sympathetic people you want to hang out and have a beer with and at the same time people who completely lack any sense of ethics and are driven only by their unbridled greed.

And it paints a vivid picture of how – at least in the 2000s and early 2010s – major banks let these guys run rampant without any real checks on their behaviour or the risks they take.

“Money money money, must be funny, in a rich man’s world…”

Nice work if you can get it

I’m not saying financial services jobs aren’t difficult or competitive or useful. Or that people don’t work long hours and get burnout.

But I do say plenty of jobs fit that description. Everyone from hrdwrkn nurses to software developers to street cleaners.

Yet they don’t get paid six-figures in their mid-20s to do it. Not least because they don’t work with money.

Perhaps you think the free market would have flushed out this excessive self-enrichment if it wasn’t actually warranted?

Maybe, but I’d point you again to the fund managers who we all know mostly fail. They’re still coining it. It doesn’t look like ruthless capitalism at its finest.

Think too about who sets financial service salaries. Yes – other people in financial services. It’s almost a Ponzi scheme.

(This becomes very apparent if you study the accounts of any firms with big investment banking divisions, incidentally. It sometimes seems a miracle that shareholders get any share at all.)

I know I sound self-righteous. To be clear if you’re working at an investment bank and making a fortune by being in the right place at the right time, deploying other people’s money without taking any risk with your own – then truly, good for you.

I’m saying it shouldn’t happen like this. At least not so trivially.

Not that you shouldn’t do it, if you want to and can. Seize the opportunity!

In fact, I expect many more will want to if they read Stevenson’s book, the same way the Liar’s Poker expose recruited a new generation of bond traders. Stevenson’s story is so entertaining, even as it darkens.

Actually, better than reading it, hear it as an audiobook.

Stevenson – an ex-grime MC – sounds like one of the cast of TopBoy interning with Gordon Gecko. He’s poetic, compelling, foul-mouthed, and very funny. I was left feeling more informed, but also a bit dirty.

Perhaps I’ll turn to Private Equity: A Memoir next, as a cleanser. (Thoughts on that over at The Lefsetz Letter).

Have a great long weekend! Even more links than usual to get you through to Tuesday…

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