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US historical asset class returns

Here’s some useful data on US historical asset class returns, both in regular ol’ USD terms and, more usefully for UK investors, GBP flavour.

By converting US returns into sterling and subjecting them to the wealth-stripping acid of UK inflation, we can see if American investment exceptionalism holds up for Brits.

We’ll start with US asset class real returns including reinvested income (in USD) since 1900:

US historical asset class returns 1900 to 1923 in chart form

Data from JST Macrohistory1 and Aswath Damodaran. July 2024.

As you can see, equities (stocks) have done much better than bonds or cash over the long-term.

Three important caveats:

  • The seemingly inexorable rise of equities disguises many setbacks, such as the 2008/9 bear market.
  • The US has been one of the very best performing countries in stock market terms over the past 124 years. Extrapolating this to other regions (or even into the future) could be misleading.
  • A UK investor putting money to work in the US faces currency risk, which can increase or reduce your returns, as we’ll see below.

Let’s now look more closely at US historical annualised2 asset class returns including gold and commodities.

US asset class annualised returns (% per annum)

2023 10 years 20 years 50 years 90 years 124 years
Equities (stocks) 21.9 9.2 7 7.1 7.1 6.7
Government bonds 0.5 -0.4 1.1 2.7 1.4 1.4
Gold 9.2 2.3 5.6 2 1.3 0.7
Commodities -10.9 -3.8 -2.6 0.5 3.4
Cash (Treasury bills) 1.6 -1.4 0.9 1 0.4 1

Data from Summerhaven3, BCOM TR, JST Macrohistory4, Aswath Damodaran, The London Bullion Market Association, and Measuring Worth. July 2024.

Investing returns sidebar – All returns quoted are inflation-adjusted, annual total returns (including dividends and interest). Investing fees are not included.

As the table shows, US equities have delivered returns far ahead of inflation.

There are only a few other stock markets in the world that can compete with the US, as our World equities post reveals. (That article needs an update, but if you’re thinking Scandinavia and the other Anglophone countries are contenders – plus South Africa – then you’re on the right lines.)

While USD gold and commodity results are nothing to write home about, their government bond and cash returns have trounced their UK equivalents even more soundly than equities in relative terms.

But the question is: do monster-truck size US profits hold up for UK investors once brought ashore?

US asset class annualised returns in GBP (% per annum)

2023 10 years 20 years 50 years 90 years 124 years
Equities (stocks) 16.5 11.6 8.3 7.5 7.3 6.9
Government bonds -4 1.8 2.3 3.1 1.6 1.6
Gold 5 4.9 7.1 2.3 1.4 0.9
Commodities -15.9 -1.4 -1.3 0.6 4
Cash (Treasury bills) -2.9 0.8 0.3 1.4 0.6 1.1

Source: see table one

The pound strengthened against the dollar in 2023, weakening US returns once translated into sterling. Moreover, our annual inflation rate was considerably worse too, reducing a UK investor’s real return further.

Over longer periods, the secular decline of the pound has boosted US returns for UK investors: a useful hedge for the loss of purchasing power associated with our waning influence.

And yet over the very long-term, it’s mattered little whether you consumed your US profits in pounds or dollars. On the UK side, the currency gains were mostly offset by our higher inflation (see the 124-year column).

Most Monevator readers likely invest in a global tracker fund and thus their fortune depends far more upon US equities than any other market.

But should we also be positioned in US Treasuries ahead of gilts?

Well, read that article and you’ll see that superior US bond returns don’t always arrive when we need them – i.e. in the midst of a stock market crisis.

Using historical asset class returns

An understanding of historical returns is important because it helps us get over behavioural quirks such as recency bias.

Recency bias is the tendency we all have to think that things will continue in the same vein as they have recently, even when the long-term data says otherwise.

For instance, if you go out in a T-shirt and shorts in October in Scotland without checking the weather forecast – just because it was sunny yesterday and the day before – then you are suffering from recency bias.

(You’ll probably soon be suffering from the flu, too!)

Hence it’s very misleading to consider just the last couple of years of asset class returns when deciding how to construct a long-term portfolio.

Only cash and very short-term government bonds provide a secure return over a short period.

All other asset classes are too volatile for that.

For example, let’s consider the equivalent historical data for the US as seen from the vantage point of 2013.

Returns to 2013: US asset class annualised returns in GBP (% per annum)

2013 10 years 20 years 50 years 90 years 114 years
Equities (stocks) 28.8 5.1 6.5 5.5 7.1 6.4
Government bonds -13.8 2.7 3.7 2.5 2.1 1.5
Gold -30 9.4 3.2 2.8 1.5 0.5
Commodities -12.6 -1.1 2.2 2.1
Cash (Treasury bills) -0.4 -0.2 0.9 1.6 1.2 1.1

Source: see table one

You can see the long-term return figures are little changed (for instance, equities had returned 6.4% p.a. over the 114 years to 2013, versus 6.9% p.a. over 124 years to 2023).

Shorter-term though, things are different.

Against popular expectations, 2013 was a stellar year for US stocks. Yet 10-year returns still bore the scars of the Global Financial Crisis, while bonds and gold were uplifted by the same.

Over the longer term, the traits of the different asset classes typically reassert themselves, although the true potential of gold is still a mystery.

The long and short of it

Stocks tend to outpace other asset classes over the medium to long-term precisely because they are far riskier over the short-term.

If the expected returns from equities weren’t higher than bonds, then nobody would choose to own them over less volatile and ultra-safe bonds – and the prices of stocks would accordingly fall until their expected returns rose.

That’s exactly what happened after bubbly periods for equities such as 1999 or 1929.

But while all this looks obvious in hindsight, timing the market to try to avoid booms and busts is notoriously difficult.

Nearly all the methods of stock market forecasting you’ll read about have proven very unreliable, and the best method isn’t much better than that.

This means that most people trying to save and invest for the future are best advised to follow a passive investing strategy, rebalancing their portfolios periodically to smooth out the booms and busts.

Over the long term – such as 40 years of investing towards retirement – the characteristics of different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and cash should play out like they have in the past.

For that reason, if you’re using an investment return or compound interest calculator then it’s okay to use long-term historical returns as a proxy for the interest rate function required. Just bear in mind that the US stock market has been one of the best-performing of all developed world nations.

UK historical asset class returns offer a more cautious reference point.

  1. Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2019. “The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3), 1225-1298. []
  2. The average annual percentage amount by which each asset grew (or shrunk) over the period. []
  3. Bhardwaj, Geetesh and Janardanan, Rajkumar and Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, “The First Commodity Futures Index of 1933,” Journal of Commodity Markets, 2020. []
  4. Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2019. “The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3), 1225-1298. []
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Back to Ack [Members]

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The 60% gain in the year or so since I featured Pershing Square Holdings (Ticker: PSH) in my first Moguls post was giving me a headache.

Obviously I wasn’t pained by making money.

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Weekend reading: Not going out

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What caught my eye this week.

There have been several times over the past couple of years when I’ve had to admit to myself I miss the pandemic.

Not, it goes without saying, the horrible deaths.

Nor the vaguely wartime spirit and the disaster movie nightly briefings.

Not even the pretty good go of it that Monevator readers and myself made of talking – and constructively disagreeing with – each other through the early uncertainty, science, and economics of those first few weeks (before the debate metastasised into just another of the bifurcations that everything resolves to now). Though I do have fond memories of those conversations.

No – I mean the feeling of being completely off the hook.

Of not berating myself for declining to YOLO through some particular evening but preferring to stay in with a book.

Or of not feeling that I had to see a certain few people who to be honest I now haven’t seen since Covid. (They probably felt the same way.)

The quiet peace for large stretches of time of simply being alone.

You’ve got to fight for your right

Perhaps it’s unsurprising I found myself taking the other side of an essay this week in The New Humanist urging us all to finally shake off the pandemic and to get out more.

In The Introverts Are Winning, author Marie Le Conte laments how:

In the years after restrictions were lifted, many naturally outgoing people – this writer included – have found it that bit harder to get their friends out of the house.

Plans somehow require more effort than ever to get made, and are always at risk of getting cancelled at the last minute. A spontaneous pub trip, once a cornerstone of British social life, now takes work to organise.

All true of me. Indeed if you defined me by my social life, I went into the pandemic a slightly grumpy 35-year old and came out a young-ish 50-something.

And these days, when it comes to going ‘out out’, as my girlfriend would say (over WhatsApp, of course, where much of our relationship happens) I very often cba.

Le Conte quotes French philosopher Pascal Bruckner – author of The Triumph of the Slippers – who believes:

“A new anthropological type is emerging: the shrivelled, hyperconnected being who no longer needs others or the outside world. All of today’s technologies encourage incarceration under the guise of openness.”

Which… seems a tad harsh?

Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded

But I don’t know. Maybe Bruckner’s right.

Because when the author of The Introverts of Winning in The New Humanist makes her case for visiting the outside world, it sounds to me like little more than a charity drive for my local newsagent.

Le Conte does not paint a compelling picture of that realm of strangers, awkwardness, intolerance, and rage.

Indeed compared to the joy of staying in – where everything is predictable, and most of human culture is at the end of a finger tap or the click of a remote control – choosing to have a spontaneous meeting with some other zombies who’ve stumbled blinking into messy and literally unfiltered reality sounds about as appealing as letting a drunk carol-singing rugby team in one by one to use your downstair’s loo.

Mushroom for a funghi

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a social recluse. Not even a wallflower.

For years The Accumulator thought I was an outright hedonist, until he knew me better.

I enjoy social stuff on my terms and my schedule. It’s all the unwanted stuff that does me in.

But I do find it easy to be alone.

I once did a work-related psychometric test, and the chap who conducted it (who for various reasons I knew independently of this test) raised an eyebrow when he gave me the result and told me he almost never saw people like me in testing – because they never made it to an office job.

I watch news stories about intrepid explorers living alone for two months with a shrug. So easy!

Coop me up in the International Space Station with a couple of others though and I’d be out the waste disposal chute long before my time was up.

I’m a high-functioning ultra-introvert in what was– until the pandemic – always an extrovert’s world.

Let’s all not meet up in the year 2000

Add it all up and even I know that I would hate to go back to prescribed global lockdowns.

My bout of Covid I mentioned before that started a few weeks ago has given way to what my GP calls a resilient ‘rebound infection’ and I’m now on antibiotics – plus rest and more rest.

As a result, I’ve spent most of the actual sunny bit of this summer canceling engagements.

It’d be nice to see my friends. It’s all a bit more 2020 than I’d prefer.

But, on the other hand, to go back to 2019?

Or even to the early 2010s – the last time that I commuted daily back and forth on a crowded tube to an office in the rush hour – with all that entailed?

Or to feel like I had to stay out in some pub, front room, club or garden party for an extra hour and then another hour because someday I’d be 30/40/50-years old and I’d regret leaving?

Well someday has come and I don’t regret the times I did leave.

I have other regrets! But overdoing it just to keep up with the extroverts is not one of them.

Not going out to work, either

Incidentally and on an investing note, this is all what’s kept me from piling into commercial property.

A favourite old real estate stock I follow is yielding 9%, has all its offices in ring-fenced special purpose vehicles so shouldn’t collapse in a realistic worst-case scenario – and as I wrote a few weeks ago I believe interest rates are coming down anyway.

But maybe the return-to-work bounce has peaked too?

That’s not something we had to consider before when judging the commercial real estate cycle. What went down may no longer come back up.

The world is different. Bruckner is right.

He’s got the whole world in his hands

Maybe you’re an outgoing party-mainlining extrovert and if so good for you.

If these difficult years we’re living through have excelled at anything, it’s making more room for self-identification. Let the party crowd party harder I say.

Even I will see you at some future party. But I’m not sure which – and I won’t be at the one after that.

Not now – not after the pandemic. It broke that compulsion. Now there’s simply too much good stuff to stream on Netflix and Spotify instead. And all those specialist aquarium videos to watch on YouTube that didn’t exist five years ago, let alone when I was a fish nerd of a kid.

If enjoying so much good stuff makes me a ‘shrivelled, hyperconnected being’ then all I can say is shrivel me more.

At home alone

I know some of my carelessness about hitting my social step count nowadays must be an age thing too – my 35-to-55 transformation notwithstanding.

But still I wonder – worry even – whether future generations of introverts will enjoy the same get out of jail card on their tendencies that I now do, whatever Bruckner thinks.

Because awareness of that card was what the isolation of the pandemic gave us. A rare gift.

Future introverts may well have everything they need in their living room – or on a quiet walk in gloriously deserted countryside. (With everything else they need summonable on their phones, of course).

But I suspect they’ll be made to feel guilty about it.

What about you? Do you miss the greatest excuse for not going to a wedding since WW2? Or have you been revenge socialising since the moment the last curfew ended?

Let us know in the comments below. Especially if you can tease out an investing-related angle.

And have a great weekend whoever you’re with – or without.

[continue reading…]

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Monzo Pension: what’s on offer, is it any good?

Monzo Pension: what’s on offer, is it any good? post image

The Monzo Pension has launched more softly than a marshmallow rocket lofted on a cotton wool plume.

And so far Monzo’s new offering looks strangely unambitious and feature-free, while simultaneously being quite innovative with its focus on solving customer problems such as: “How on Earth do I get a grip on my pensions without knowing much about pensions?”

Dive in for our thoughts on the Monzo Pension, how it works, and – crucially – how its key features stack up against comparable products on the market.

How does the Monzo Pension work?

Unlike any other pension scheme we know about, the Monzo Pension doesn’t want your money. At least not the new money you may be paying into a workplace pension or SIPP every month.

For now at least, Monzo’s pension is aimed squarely at sweeping up the trail of old pensions that many of us leave behind as we move from employer to employer.

It’s not easy to remember everyone you worked for. (Sometimes it’s preferable to forget.) One or two changes of address later and your annual statement from the pension providers of WeLikeEmYoung&Cheap PLC disappears into the void, never to be seen or thought of again.

Which is exactly how millions of people in the UK get detached from the Infinity Stones of pension power scattered around their own personal cinematic universe.

Monzo’s innovation is to offer itself as the superhero that will reunite these pension shards for you.

Actually, this isn’t really a difficult quest. Indeed Monzo outsources the task to its pension tracing partner, Raindrop.

Other pension providers use Raindrop too. You just need to tell the pension detectives who you worked for and when, while ponying up your National Insurance number.

Yet tracking down old pension pots is one of those things that’s hard to get around to if you have a life. (Note to self: get a life.)

So kudos to Monzo for nudging its customers into action.

What investments does the Monzo Pension offer?

Once your cash ker-chings into your new Monzo SIPP account it will be funnelled directly into your choice of investment fund.

And you can have any investment fund you like so long as it’s BlackRock.

Specifically a BlackRock LifePath Target Date Fund.

Is that it? I have a choice of… one fund?

Yep.

Monzo is big on keeping it simple.

Still, if it’s only going to offer one fund then Monzo has made a pretty good decision:

  • BlackRock is a leading global fund provider. We’re completely happy to use its products ourselves.
  • A Target Date fund is a very sensible, hands-off, multi-asset fund that’s ideal for anyone who is investing for their retirement.

There are actually nine Target Date funds – but they vary only as much as trains following the same route do. The difference lies in the time they leave the station, not in their quality of service or final destination.

The relevance of each fund is signified by its target year. For example, the BlackRock LifePath Target Date Fund 2055 is intended for people who want to retire sometime in 2053 to 2057.

Want to retire in 2052? Then it’s the BlackRock LifePath Target Date Fund 2050 for you.

Monzo simply drops your cash into the Target Date Fund that’s closest to the date you wish to retire.

How Target Date funds work

Target Date funds are designed to automate most of the investing decisions you have to make en route to retirement.

You get a diversified portfolio as standard. But your mix of equities and bonds shifts as you approach your target / retirement date.

At the beginning of the journey you’re likely to be hurtling along: pedal to the metal in a portfolio dominated by high-risk, (hopefully) high-reward equities.

By journey’s end though, your Target Date fund is easing off the gas like a fully-autonomous vehicle. As you glide into retirement, the fund will be mostly invested in low-ish risk, low-ish reward bonds.

BlackRock Lifepath Target Date fund glidepath diagram

How a Target Date fund derisks its assets over time. Source: BlackRock.

Essentially, a Target Date Fund prioritises wealth building when you’re decades away from retirement. It then gradually transitions to preserving what you’ve got, the closer you come to needing the money.

This is an orthodox and perfectly respectable retirement path designed to guard against an untimely stock market crash wrecking your plans.

However the Target Date approach is not guaranteed to work – because nothing is.

Target date profile

One weakness of Target Date funds, in our view, is that they’re light on inflation-hedging assets.

A greater concern though is psychological.

Automation creates the impression that you can take your hands off the wheel completely and everything will be okay.

In reality, you still need to periodically check your investment progress and decide whether you’re setting enough aside to support the retirement you want.

With that said, we’re still big fans of target date funds precisely because they simplify the pension-saving process for people who don’t want to handle the intricacies themselves.

Moreover, there’s no evidence that you’ll do any worse for ceding control versus adopting a flashier strategy.

Keep it simple, soldier

Don’t fall for the spiel that a simple investing approach won’t cut it.

The investing arena is a cesspit of FOMO. Like Instagram, investment propaganda is flooded with snapshots of people doing spectacularly well. Or rather people who look like they are doing well – possibly because they or their paymasters have something to sell.

A Target Date fund is the investing equivalent of someone the Instagram algorithm would never promote. An unassuming person you wouldn’t look twice at. Someone who isn’t perfect and has their ups and downs. But someone who nonetheless leads a good life because they focus on what truly matters.

They’re balanced and content and don’t fret about those with a better story to tell.

Are the Lifepath Target Date funds ethical?

You can check out the Lifepath Target Date funds page for yourself. It’s a masterwork of fluffy corporate accessibility unburdened by details.

There’s much talk about ‘considering’ sustainability but no firm commitment. The other key documents similarly neglect to make specific ethical promises.

That said, many of the investments held by the fund are labelled ESG-friendly.

‘Environmental, Social, and Governance’ is the supposedly ethical trifecta of buzzwords touted by financial services nowadays.

In theory the badge indicates your investment is being measured against some kind of ethical standard.

The trouble is working out what that actually means.

You should not assume that an ESG designation means your investments are aligned to your own values.

And don’t presume that your ESG investment incentivises companies to stop manufacturing arms, or to cease polluting the environment, or to refrain from exploiting their workforces.

In short, if you’re serious about ethical investing then the ESG label isn’t enough. You’d need drill into the detail and find out what your fund is investing in and whether that allows your conscience to rest easy.

Another way of putting this: there are no easy answers.

How much does the Monzo Pension cost?

You’ll pay annual investment fees of 0.45% to Monzo and an additional 0.18% to BlackRock.

If you’re a Monzo Plus, Premium, Perks, or Max customer then Monzo only takes 0.35%.

In pounds and pence those fees mean:

  • For every £100 your investment is worth, BlackRock snaffles 18p and Monzo 45p.

Even when your pension pot reaches £10,000, BlackRock would still only take £14 and Monzo £45 per year.

That sounds like buttons and indeed BlackRock’s charge is very competitive versus equivalent products.

But Monzo becomes a very expensive platform if your pension sits north of £50,000.

In fact, when your pension balance reaches £100,000 Monzo will be charging you £450 per year, based on the fee schedule that’s been laid out at launch.

In contrast you can easily find pension providers who will bill you only around £200 for a SIPP that size. Go have a look at our broker comparison table.

Fast-forward a few decades and, with a fair wind, you could plausibly end up with £1 million or more in pension wealth.

Monzo would deduct £4,500 a year for that. Whereas a cheaper fixed-fee pension provider would still only tap you for £200.

Ballers beware

Monzo’s charges are fine if you’re starting out and you want everything in one place alongside your other Monzo services.

But you’ll pay through the nose for the Monzo Pension privilege if (/when) you’ve socked away some serious wealth.

Remember that high costs rob you of investment performance, leeching away pounds that should instead be compounding on your behalf.

Imagine two ghost cars driven by different versions of your future self. One carries too much weight and loses a second per lap, then two seconds, then three, then… you get the picture.

Are my investments safe with Monzo Pension?

Monzo’s Pension scheme is covered by the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS).

The scheme is designed to pay up to £85,000 per person if your FCA authorised investment platform cannot meet its financial obligations to you.

£85,000 is the maximum compensation you can claim for both your Monzo Pension and your Monzo Investments accounts. You aren’t entitled to £85,000 per account.

The same limit applies if BlackRock collapsed. Again £85,000 is the maximum amount you can claim for all your BlackRock investments.

Read up on the rules if you’re particularly concerned about FSCS investment protection.

And do note that the scheme doesn’t cover you if your investments fall in value.

Anything else I need to know about the Monzo Pension?

Although you can’t contribute new money to your Monzo Pension yet, Monzo is planning to switch on this fundamentally basic feature sometime.

Meanwhile, if you want to retire on your Monzo Pension then the options are currently poor. You’d either have to:

  • Buy an annuity with the bulk of it
  • Or take the whole amount as a lump sum – potentially exposing yourself to a large tax hit

The most popular and flexible retirement option – pension drawdown – is not available.

Perhaps drawdown will be enabled in the future. Or maybe there’s no rush because the majority of Monzo’s customer base is far from retirement.

Either way, it’s only a minor inconvenience because you can always transfer your pension to another provider later to access a full range of retirement options.

Happily, Monzo does not charge exit fees if you switch.

Is pension consolidation worth doing?

Not intrinsically. Merging your pensions doesn’t make them worth any more.

There’s no economy of scale you’re capitalising upon, it doesn’t mean they’ll be better managed, and the whole is not greater than the sum of its parts.

Consolidation is good if:

  • Gathering all your pensions together in one place makes things simpler. Paperwork hassle is slashed and you can see how you’re doing at a glance.
  • Consolidation makes sense if your new provider is more cost-effective or offers benefits you weren’t getting elsewhere.
  • That’s about it.

But consolidation isn’t so good if:

  • Your old scheme offers benefits that won’t be honoured by your new provider. Double-check before moving any pension. Ask your old administrator if your pension comes with safeguarded benefits.
  • Your new provider goes bust and your account exceeds the FSCS compensation limit.
  • Your new provider goes bust, you’re retired, but you can’t draw an income until the whole mess is sorted out which takes over a year. (The Monevator house view is that all retirees should diversify across at least two pension platforms to avoid this scenario. It’s very rare but it happens.)
  • Your new provider is more expensive or offers worse investing options than your old provider.

Finally, as Monzo to its credit points out: you should keep paying into any workplace pension you can access, at least up to the limit of the employer contribution.

You can’t beat free money!

A capital idea

As weird as it is that you can’t pay new money into the Monzo Pension (yet), we still think Monzo’s entry into the market is a good thing.

Putting the emphasis on rounding-up old pensions is a truly innovative move that will help a lot of people.

Moreover, the sheer lack of fund choice is incredibly daring in an era where choice is fetishised.

Choice overload is a massive problem in investing. So it is wonderful to see a provider who understands its customers well enough to say: “Do you know what? This will do ya.”

And for many potential users we don’t disagree.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

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