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Weekend reading: Are you ready to spend all your money?

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What caught my eye this week.

Switching from saving to spending can be tricky for self-directed investors.

In the old days the transition was easier. You stopped working, drew a pension controlled by your previous employer, stared at the carriage clock you’d been given on your last day and wondered where all time went, and then died too few years later.

(Okay – easy-ish!)

Today, though, final salary1 pensions are an endangered species. Saving for yourself means more complication on the way up, because you’re responsible for figuring out how much to put aside to invest for your retirement.

It also puts more of a burden on you to figure out how much you can spend a year on the way – ahem – down.

These aren’t simply mathematical problems, or even questions of risk.

With a little effort, most people can devise an investment plan to save for retirement.

And while low yields from fixed income have muddied the waters, in principle working out what you can withdraw and spend from your portfolio in retirement is also doable.

You make a few assumptions, put them into a calculator, and out pops your annual living allowance. Sure you’ll be roughly wrong as much as roughly right, but you can course correct along the way.

A state pension takes the edge off running out of money too soon, too.

Spenders versus savers

There is a further, less-discussed challenge with retirement spending though: the mental jujitsu required to turn from being a lifelong saver into a rest-of-life splurger.

Those still saving their way out of the rat race may dismiss such concerns. And statistics do suggest it’s not hard for everyone.

According to the Association for British Insurers:

The average rates at which people are withdrawing money from their pension could see people running out of money in retirement if they do not have other sources of income.

Full withdrawals have risen to their highest level since [pension] freedoms were introduced: 40% of withdrawals were at an annual rate of 8% and over, which is not sustainable.

Clearly a significant chunk of the population are used to spending most of what they can, and retirement doesn’t change that. The only (good) reason they were able to build up their pensions in the first place was because they couldn’t get at the money.

But the sort of people who regularly read Monevator are cut from a different cloth.

Many of us remember the travails of the blogger SexHealthMoneyDeath. Among other things, he found the transition to spending so hard he went back to work. I know I’m not the only person who wonders what happened to RIT, too.

Hopefully he’s living it up in Australia and is too busy to tell us about it!

Seize the day, boys2

But this unusual year is changing some perspectives, I believe. Maybe it’s helping motivate a few reluctant spenders?

I mentioned a while ago I’d decided to quit my main source of income. That longstanding contract came to an end a few weeks ago. For now I’m effectively living off my investments. For various reasons I don’t really like doing this, and I don’t think it will last. But I don’t believe it would have happened at all without six months of on/off lockdown introspection.

Of course The Accumulator is also now financially free and pondering what next.

So it’s in the waters around here…

Retiree Dennis Friedman wrote this week at Humble Dollar that he hardly recognises the spender he’s become:

I woke up one morning, looked in the mirror and didn’t recognize the person looking back at me. Who is this person? It can’t be me. I’m not the same person I was five or six months ago. I don’t know if it’s the pandemic that caused me to behave differently or if I’m going through some kind of midlife crisis.

No, it can’t be a midlife crisis. I’m almost 70 years old, plus I don’t feel my life is boring, empty or meaningless. In fact, I actually feel good about myself and my life.

Instead, what I don’t understand is why I have a different attitude toward money. All my life, I’ve been a supersaver [but] recently, I’ve been spending gobs of money in ways I never would have in the past.

Dennis’ piece is a modest and self-aware reflection on how one man found he’d broke through the barrier. Worth a read if you’re in a similar position.

Meanwhile at Bloomberg Farnoosh Torabi tells us she has changed her views and now plans to die with an empty bank account – so clearly she’s gotten over the hump:

If 2020 has taught us anything it’s that life is uncertain. Through this lens, I’ve started to abandon some conservative personal finance principles.

This summer, for example, I went against the adage of “staying the course” with retirement and stuck my hand in my IRA to shed some stocks. I also bought a house in what can be considered a risky environment. To date, I have no regrets.

In my latest move away from what many financial experts preach, I’ve forgone the aspiration of leaving a financial legacy. The concept of bequeathing an inheritance just seems to make less sense today.

Instead, I want to experience my legacy by spending most, if not all, of my money on meaningful experiences and investing in the people and causes I believe in — all before I leave Earth.

I like that word ‘uncertain’ in this context.

Some people push back against the idea that Covid-19 has changed us with statistics about how few people – especially not even vaguely old people – have died of it.

I agree. That’s not the main point, however. I believe it’s by revealing how fragile our day-to-day ways of living are – by revealing the assumptions and obligations we live by – that the pandemic has given many people a few existential moments.

That is, it’s not so much the loss of life as the lockdown.

For most readers (and ultimately for me, for that matter, I hope) the full-on shift to spending down savings remains many years away.

But if 2020 has logged a carpe diem reminder into our memory banks, it yet could prove useful when that day comes.

Have a great weekend!

[continue reading…]

  1. A.k.a. ‘defined benefit’ []
  2. And girls, obviously. Quoting Dead Poet’s Society. []
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The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q3 2020

The Slow and Steady passive portfolio was up in the third-quarter

For a relatively flat quarter, things don’t half feel nervy at the moment. Our Slow & Steady Passive Portfolio scraped a 2% gain over the last three months. We’re up year-to-date by a miraculous-seeming 5%.

All hail massive fiscal expansion! It feels about as real as a cartoon character running on air after running out of road.

Don’t look down! But do look at these soothing quarterly numbers brought to you by Pangloss-o-vision:

The annualised return of the portfolio is 8.94%.

The Slow and Steady portfolio is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000. An extra £976 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and catch up on all the previous passive portfolio posts.

Age of uncertainty

The thing about living in an age of uncertainty is that even a week feels like ages. It’s as though each revelation from the relentless drip-feed of my news app must herald some fate-altering butterfly effect.

Every crunch of the COVID statistics, every mood-shift in the US polls, every whisper about the President’s health pushes a button – demands an urgent update of my world view, working practices, and portfolio position. It’s a switchback ride between exhilaration and exhaustion. No wonder we’re hyperactive.

Unless we’re passive investors, of course. In which case we try to sit back and enjoy endure the ride.

There must be something you can do, Dr Accumulator?

One of the less acknowledged truisms about our portfolios is that they represent mini-models of the world through which we try to impose order on the chaos.

Like playing Sim City or building a model railway, our portfolios enable us to pull levers that make us feel like we’re in charge. For a few precious minutes at least.

There’s clearly a correlation between anxiety level and portfolio change. I spent an afternoon wondering what I should change about the Slow & Steady portfolio to bolster it against the paradigm shift that surely must have occurred these last few months.

Doing nothing in these circumstances is like believing that JFK was shot by a lone gunman. Naive!

But what to do? Let’s run through the gamut:

  • Buy gold – the ultimate chaos insurance. Shame it’s already appreciated 20% in the last year.
  • Ditch bonds – who wants to earn negative yields? But there’s no better volatility buffer.
  • Investigate alt investments – feels like diving into a shark pool covered in tuna paste. These seem to be classic black box traps for investors wanting to believe in miracles.
  • Reread my Investment Policy Statement – like Van Helsing clutching a crucifix before the Prince Of Darkness. (Yeah, right! Does anybody ever do this? Ya, dweebs.)
  • Cut some costs – maybe, but our funds still look pretty competitive bar some new ETFs on the block that don’t yet have a convincing track record.
  • Change platform – Result! There’s something in this.

It turns out that moving our model portfolio to a new platform would cut our costs. It’s the one constructive change I can make that doesn’t require pre-cog ability, and it also usefully diverts my unquiet mind.

Change management

Right now we’re notionally paying 0.25% in platform fees on a portfolio valued around £57,000 – that’s £142 per year.

Move to Lloyds Share Dealing though and we’d pay:

  • £40 platform fee for our stocks and shares ISA.
  • £42 for a year’s worth of fund purchases (£1.50 x seven funds x four quarterly trades)
  • An estimated £12 for rebalancing sales1 (£1.50 x eight)
  • Total platform costs at Lloyds would be approx £94.

Or 33% less than our current outlay of £142, which is only likely to rise.

Okay, now that’s a change worth making – assuming Lloyds have the funds we want. I’ll investigate that and look to switch the Slow & Steady portfolio to a flat-fee broker in the next episode.

Otherwise, I’m just gotta sit on my hands. Where’s my passive investor’s bible?

New transactions

Every quarter we mix £976 into our financial cocktail while the Chancellor sprays everyone with punch. Our animal spirits are split between our seven funds according to our predetermined asset allocation.

We rebalance using Larry Swedroe’s 5/25 rule. That hasn’t been activated this quarter.

These are our trades:

UK equity

Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust – OCF 0.06%

Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63

New purchase: £48.80

Buy 0.276 units @ £177.38

Target allocation: 5%

Developed world ex-UK equities

Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund – OCF 0.14%

Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73

New purchase: £361.12

Buy 0.872 units @ £414.10

Target allocation: 37%

Global small cap equities

Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund – OCF 0.29%

Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05

New purchase: £58.56

Buy 0.194 units @ £301.81

Target allocation: 6%

Emerging market equities

iShares Emerging Markets Equity Index Fund D – OCF 0.18%

Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642

New purchase: £87.84

Buy 50.922 units @ £1.73

Target allocation: 9%

Global property

iShares Global Property Securities Equity Index Fund D – OCF 0.17%

Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71

New purchase: £48.80

Buy 25.272 units @ £1.93

Target allocation: 5%

UK gilts

Vanguard UK Government Bond Index – OCF 0.12%

Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374

New purchase: £302.56

Buy 1.594 units @ £189.86

Target allocation: 31%

Global inflation-linked bonds

Royal London Short Duration Global Index-Linked Fund – OCF 0.27%

Fund identifier: GB00BD050F05

New purchase: £68.32

Buy 62.62 units @ £1.09

Target allocation: 7%

New investment = £976

Trading cost = £0

Platform fee = 0.25% per annum.

This model portfolio is notionally held with Cavendish Online, however they’d just announced they’re closed to new business. Take a look at our online broker table for other good platform options. Consider a flat-fee broker if your ISA portfolio is worth substantially more than £25,000.

Average portfolio OCF = 0.15%

If all this seems too much like hard work then you can buy a diversified portfolio using an all-in-one fund such as Vanguard’s LifeStrategy series.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

  1. We’ve sold seven times in rebalancing moves this past year. []
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Weekend reading: Gold fingered

Weekend reading: Gold fingered post image

What caught my eye this week.

I was fortunate to come into 2020 with some gold – ETFs and a couple of miners – in my portfolio.

Please don’t say I’d ‘got religion’. (We know what happens to people who get religious about gold.) But some time after the demise of the last gold bull market I began nipping in and out of gold miners with mixed results, before deciding that gold as an asset class warranted a permanent-ish place in TheInvestor-folio.

Blame time spent fiddling at the wonderful Portfolio Charts. Blame the terrible politics of Brexit and Trump. And definitely consider my thinking aided and abetted by super-low interest rates.

If cash is paying next to nothing, it doesn’t cost much more to hold gold.

Golden tears

Old thinking dies hard, though. In my gut I still believe gold is a dumb investment. Charlie Munger’s observation that “civilized people don’t buy gold” echoes in my head whenever I get smug about the returns from gold over the past couple of years.

Because really, what a silly faff gold is. As Munger’s partner Warren Buffett pointed out, we spend millions digging up gold in one place, and then millions reburying it in a guarded vault somewhere else.

In the meantime, the gold mostly does nothing. As the graphic below from Bloomberg via MSN shows, only a fraction of new gold mined goes into technology. The rest is just shuttled away to sit around – occasionally on wrists, necks, and ears, but mostly in state banks and personal safes and jewelry boxes. Being gold:

(Click to enlarge the folly)

The Bloomberg article explains we’re a long way from running out of gold. This despite how puny most gold deposits are nowadays – because we’re prepared to spend immense energy to squeeze gold out of such stones:

The percentage of gold in ore reserves is falling, from more than 10 grams per ton in the late 1960s to barely more than 1 gram per ton nowadays.

Those concentrations are extraordinarily low – equivalent to grinding up and separating a Statue of Liberty’s-worth of ore to recover a teaspoon of precious metal.

Yuck. It’s enough to make any environmentally aware investor sell all their gold and look forward to dancing on its grave.

Well, maybe after the rally seems over for sure, eh?

Besides, what are you going to buy instead – Bitcoin?

The digital currency needs power equivalent to the output of seven nuclear power stations to keep its mines churning at the last count.

Bring back the barter system I say!

At least when you compound seashells you end up with a beach.

[continue reading…]

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Weekend reading logo

What caught my eye this week.

This year has already had more groundhog days than a count among my peers of the top five Bill Murray movies of all-time – but the last few days have really ladled it on.

It was all so six months ago! Johnson at the dispatch box like a kabuki Churchill. Rishi Sunak promising unprecedented state support to applause from the center, anger from the left (not enough!) and anger from the right (far too much!). An eye across the Channel for a sneak preview of what’s up next. R higher (a little) and the market down (a tad).

Like you I have opinions about this miserable virus, and where we’ve come since March. We may look at the same data and profoundly disagree. Covid-19 has something for everyone – a Rorschach test that can make differences over Brexit seem like a lover’s tiff. Unlike Brexit, however, we’ll only know what was the right decision in retrospect.

[Badum tish!]

A difference engine

I was interested in Sunak’s admission that the economy isn’t going back to exactly how it was. Not that it should be a big surprise to anyone. To paraphrase Boromir, one does not simply walk in and out of a 20% recession. Things will break along the way.

Indeed putting epidemiology and macro-economics aside, I have slightly shifted my view on what has changed because of this virus.

I still don’t think capitalism is finished or passive investing is broken or we’ll have to wait 20 years for a positive return from equities or any of the worst fears from the corona-crash. As my dad used to say: “Don’t be silly now.”

But I have come to believe most of us are being affected on a psychological level.

At first I resisted such talk as premature – fodder to fill opinion columns. But I keep seeing friends and family doing strange things or making atypical decisions. Heck, I’m behaving out of character – and I’m a Poundshop Sheldon Cooper.

Reports keep coming in of an exodus from the big cities, a rise in marriage proposals, a surge in the savings rate…

2020 hindsight redefined

Recent generations tended to get named before they’d barely put a foot into Big School.

But the Depression Babies and the Greatest Generation and even the “god damn hippies” earned their epithets after events had done a bit of transpiring.

Will all of us living through this be named like that? The Covid kids? The corona casualties?

If not yet then what about after another six months of restrictions? Or another year of two steps forward, one foot back? Or five years?

I was on the tube last night to visit a friend suffering a nervous breakdown (not wholly unrelated to the virus, incidentally) and everyone was wearing masks and it didn’t seem odd any more at all.

What will this shock do to how we save, spend, and invest? As with everything Covid, the answers probably go both ways.

When I was a teenager I was involved in a life-threatening motor accident and so was one of my closest friends.

I edit a blog focused on saving and investing for your future self. He’s barely saved a penny ever since and lives like Indiana Jones dodging murderous pendulums.

This pandemic is changing us all, at least a little bit. But how?

[continue reading…]

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