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Weekend reading: The office

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What caught my eye this week.

Will we or won’t we? Go back the office that is. Although I say ‘we’ to give the vibe that we’re all in this together. But rather like a backyard reveler in Downing Street during a pandemic, I walk to my own beat.

More than 20 years ago I discovered I could mostly do my job from home, and more efficiently too.

“Sod the office!” quoth I. “And be damned with the commute.”

Perhaps I capped my (traditional) career prospects, but I never looked back in terms of quality of life. Working from home was like playing the game on easy mode. More time, fewer distractions, chores done incidentally during screen breaks, and always in for deliveries.

Most of you also now know that drill now.

Indeed, one good thing about lockdowns – bar the parties, natch – has been the world discovering how practical it is for more people to live this way.

Well, I say ‘good thing’ to again hit an inclusive note – but for me it’s been a step backwards.

More people in Waitrose at lunchtime. Everyone wanting to Zoom instead of just leaving you to get on with it. Double-digit house price growth in my fantasy rural retreats. The world has changed.

For many workers all this freedom is a revelation.

Bloomberg reports this week that 55% say they will quit if forced to return to the office.

No wonder we’ve all asked how long it will last.

Life’s too short

US cheapo broker Robinhood is just the latest firm to offer most of its staff permanent work from home, saying:

Our teams have done amazing work and built a strong workplace community during these uncertain and challenging times, and we’re excited to continue to offer them the flexibility they’ve asked for by staying primarily remote. 

Facebook and Twitter are two other big tech firms that have pledged to enable staff to keep working from home.

But Google has just taken a step in the other direction. While stressing it was forging a hybrid model rather than enforcing office labour, it nevertheless just plunked down $1 billion in additional commitments to its UK offices.

Reuters reports that:

Google plans to refit the building so it is adapted for in-person teamwork and has meeting rooms for hybrid working, as well as creating more space for individuals.

The new refurbishment will also feature outdoor covered working spaces to enable work in the fresh air.

Google says it will eventually have the capacity for 10,000 workers at its UK sites, including the one being developed in London’s King’s Cross.

Rishi Sunak, UK chancellor, even put his name to a quote that celebrated the move as a commitment to the UK tech sector.

On that political note though, I did wonder as I watched Google executives do the interview rounds whether this was in part a PR move?

The company was rolling out huge office buildings around King’s Cross before the pandemic. It was already pretty all-in.

Why not give the UK government something to cheer about ahead of the next furore over corporate taxes or some dodgy militants on YouTube?

Extras

A $1 billion is a lot to spend on PR though. Clearly Google is serious about its 6,400 UK workers having at least a foot in office life.

However this vision couldn’t stop Google postponing its global return to work plans last month, as the Omicron wave hit.

Many others have done the same. And of course in December it became official UK government guidance again to work from home if you could.

Those who believe the traditional office’s days are numbered think these delays have put the final coffin in things returning to how they were.

Nicholas Bloom, professor of economics at Stanford University, told the BBC that any hard return-to-office dates are dead:

“Endless waves of Covid have led most CEOs to give up, and instead set up contingent policies: if, when and how to return to the office.” 

Bloom believes that at the least the future will be hybrid now.

I see pros and cons. For example I chose to go into a client’s office a couple of times a week for a few years, which also gave me a bit of social contact. But it also meant I couldn’t exactly leave London for the Orkney Islands.

Hybrid working takes wholesale geographic reckoning off the table.

Perhaps that’s why the populations of UK cities have held up better than some predicted during the so-called ‘dash for space’.

After Life

A scattered workforce can make the office seem a bit of a nostalgic throwback, like wearing bowler hats to work.

As one worker told the BBC:

“I won’t come in regularly until there is a critical mass of people here.

There’s no point in leaving the house if I end up doing video calls anyway.”

The bottom line is I still don’t think we know what will happen next.

This week veteran commentator Barry Ritholz pointed out what a weird recovery we’re seeing across the spectrum.

No wonder those April 2020 thoughts of two weeks at home and we’re done seem so quaint these days.

Hubble is maintaining a long list of big or famous companies’ back-to-office strategies. What’s your favourite firm doing?

Wherever you are, have a great weekend. The evening’s are getting lighter!

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FIRE update: nine months in – the onset of winter

FIRE update: nine months in – the onset of winter post image

Before FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early), my bleakest time of year was always the first day back to work in January.

The real magic of Christmas is that we collectively agree to suspend reality for a precious few days. It’s as if we’ve been gifted an enchanted remote control that pauses the world.

Then some fool unfreezes it again and we’re back to business as usual.

As work problems piled up faster than party invites in Bojo’s inbox, my answer was to immediately book another holiday.

Must. Have. Something. To look forward to.

Post-FIRE, there’s no cold bucket of reality to the face.

It’s midwinter and the short days still seem to close early like a sleepy village shop.

But if simple pleasures are the secret to a good life, then FIRE lets you order a constant supply.

Plumbing the depths

My first day back after Christmas this year was spent having a Mr Money Mustache-style new skills adventure.

Not to overshare, but the toilet packed up.

And if the last year has taught me anything about Brexit Britain, it’s that I can’t get a plumber when I need one. They forgot to mention that one on the bus.

But what a chance to fully embrace the FIRE lifestyle! Exchanging pointless blah-blah meetings for the free-time to learn new tricks instead.

Isn’t that what it’s all about?

Okay, so I’m not rigging up a solar still or travel-hacking my way around Asia.

But c’mon! You gotta take it where you can get it.

At this point, I must confess that I’m not a DIY enthusiast. My opening gambit was to google: “How does a toilet work?”

I was starting from a low-skill base. But a mere five hours later I’d uncovered a torn diaphragm in my Fluidmaster Pro Bottom-Entry Fill Valve.

As painful as that sounds, I fixed it with 97p worth of new seal. The master toilet was back in business!

High-fives were declined by Mrs Accumulator until I’d been hosed down in the garden.

Alright, it wasn’t that bad but I’ll still spare you the harrowing mobile footage documenting the gruesome detail.

How much would my plumber have charged if I could get him? £100 to £150 I’d guess.

Instead, as an ex-knowledge worker, I got to feel semi-useful for a change.

I’ve heard of the happiness U-bend but maybe this is taking it too literally?

Flush with success

So FIRE isn’t all all-glamour and chasing cows, huh? Seems not. But at least it wasn’t another bog-standard day at the office.

I no more want to fix toilets for a living than I wanted to mop up torrents of BS in my old profession.

The killer is routine. The killer is doing the same thing day in, day out, and at a hundred miles an hour.

With time on your side, most problems dissolve away.

Even a slow day can be filled with fun in disguise.

Making a home. Playful verbal jousting with Mrs TA. Discovering an unexpected talent for following YouTube videos then claiming all the credit.

I can’t go back.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

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How to spot a bear market bottom

Legendary investor Jim Slater lived through the 1970s stock market crash: the worst slump since the 1930s.

The London share index was at a 21-year low in 1975.

If you find yourself in the midst of a bear market then clearly Slater’s seen a thing or two.

Let’s hear what he has to say. (My comments in italics).

Slater’s tips on spotting a bear market bottom

Cash is king
At the bottom of a bear market, everyone agrees cash is the best place for your money. Even fund managers will be holding stacks of cash. This money eventually goes into the market, starting the next bull run.

Value is easy to find
Share prices, as measured by low P/E ratios, will be near to historical lows. The average dividend yield will be high, and shares may be selling at a discount to their book value. In 1975, the FTSE Ordinary Share Index stood at 146, with an average P/E of 4 (!)

Interest rates falling
Slater says interest rates have usually started falling from a high level near the end of a bear market. Lower interest rates will eventually revive economic activity.

Money supply rising
Broad money supply tends to be increasing at the turn of bear markets. Money is the lifeblood of the economy. Also, increasing supply will tend to push up asset prices.

Investment advisers are gloomy
The consensus view of advisers will be bearish. If everyone believes the market is going down, it should already have done so.

Little reaction to bad news
When bear markets stop falling on bad news, it can be a sign the market is bottoming out. Slater’s theory is that most of the weak sellers have already sold out. Shares therefore shrug off the latest bad news as long-term holders wait for better times.

Few IPOs
There are very few new issues (IPOs) at the bottom of bear markets. Entrepreneurs with successful companies would rather wait for more optimistic markets, to get a higher price for their creations.

Disinterested media
Press and TV comment shrinks as the public lose interest in shares. Financial articles are universally bearish, and bullish articles are ignored as the work of madmen. The classic contrast in our times is with the late 1990s tech run, when every magazine had a new billionaire CEO on the cover.

“Don’t talk to me about shares”
Nobody believes there’s any point in owning shares in a bear market, since everyone has suffered huge losses. The subject of the markets will rarely come up at parties. A good contrast would be with the property bull market that ended in 2006. Back then you could hardly reach for a bread roll before somebody declared they were buying property to let.

Changes in market leaders
Sectors that have enjoyed many years in the doldrums often start to recover, which may reveal the new leaders in the next bull market. Growth stocks also become “ridiculously cheap” according to Slater, as their P/E rating plunges to the levels of mediocre plodders. Again, think of the dotcoms – tech shares didn’t lead the 2003-2007 bull market, they handed the baton over to commodity stocks.

Upturn in the Coppock indicator
The Coppock indicator is a technical analysis tool that produces buy and sell signals for the markets. An upturn in the Coppock indicator has got a pretty good record as a strong buy signal. The Investors’ Chronicle in the UK publishes Coppock Indicator analysis.

Unemployment
Slater quotes a study by Matheson Securities that looked at ten stock market turning points, and found bear markets usually began on average ten months after unemployment started falling. Rapidly rising unemployment could therefore indicate a bear market is nearing its end. Presumably this would be because companies are shedding costs and becoming leaner and meaner.

Want more of Jim Slater’s wisdom? Check out his investment guide, The Zulu Principle.

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An introduction to PrimaryBid

Image of a painting from the old Amsterdam Stock Exchange with text “First Among Equals”

This article on PrimaryBid is by The Lone Exchanger from Team Monevator. Every Monday sees another fresh perspective from the Team.

Ping! A fresh notification popped up on The Lone Exchanger’s mobile phone.

He glanced down at the screen, read the message, and began his mental calculations…

Primary colours

One of the many frustrations of life as an active retail investor is you’re bottom of the pecking order.

Trading fees are higher and access to research is limited, compared to what the professionals enjoy.

It’s also much harder to participate in company fundraisings.

Technology is slowly changing things, however. And that’s to the benefit of everyday investors like you and me.

Dealing fees have been slashed to zero by apps such as Freetrade. Independent stock research is available on platforms such as Twitter and Substack. There are also more investing podcasts.

As for improving access to company fundraising – enter PrimaryBid.

PrimaryBid is an app-based platform. It enables retail investors to more easily invest in new raises alongside institutional investors.

The service is free to use. Launched in 2016, it already has over half a million users.

PrimaryBid is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. It even boasts the London Stock Exchange among backers of its recent $50m fundraising.

Shaking the tin

Some access to fundraising was already made available by existing brokers.

But PrimaryBid offers a far wider selection, and makes the process easier.

When a company wishes to raise money via issuing shares – known as equity financing – it traditionally has several options.

If the company is privately held, it can move onto a public stock market. This happens via an Initial Public Offering (IPO), also known as a flotation.

Here the company employs investment bankers to produce a prospectus and to ‘sell’ the company’s prospects to (traditionally) deep-pocketed institutions. The institutions buy shares prior to an official listing on the stock market.

This pre-IPO activity determines the initial share price when the company goes public. Only then can retail investors usually get in. After the shares have officially started trading on the stock market.

A second route – for companies already publicly listed – involves issuing new shares. (Sometimes called a rights issue or a placing). Placings may go to existing shareholders or to large fund managers.

Due to the logistics of getting multiple investors together, this route has also mostly been limited to large institutions. Occasionally brokerage accounts offer retail investors the opportunity to subscribe. But it’s certainly not standard.

PrimaryBid steps in to make things easier. It connects retail investors interested in a placing or IPO with companies raising capital.

Platforming

Accessing these offers via PrimaryBid is straightforward.

First you download the app from the Apple or Android app store. You then go through a sign-up process. This includes the usual due diligence and ‘Know Your Customer’ checks.

You will be asked to name your broker and submit your account number. This is so PrimaryBid can make sure that any securities you purchase via its platform end up with your broker.

There are two caveats worth mentioning.

Firstly, your chosen broker must be a partner of PrimaryBid.

Most if not all of the ‘traditional’ stock brokerage accounts are on-board. Fidelity, Hargreaves Lansdown, Halifax Share Dealing, Interactive Investor, Lloyds Share Trading, and X-O are all partnered, among others.

However share trading apps such as Freetrade and Trading212 are not.

The second caveat is that due to HMRC restrictions, securities purchased through the PrimaryBid app cannot be transferred into an ISA or SIPP held at your brokerage. (Note that the PrimaryBid FAQ page implies you can get investments into an ISA or SIPP if you apply via the broker. The broker then applies through PrimaryBid.)

Let’s start the bidding at…

With everything set-up, you can browse existing opportunities. You’ll also be notified on your phone with details of any new fundraising.

Opportunities on PrimaryBid fall into three categories:

  • Initial public offerings
  • General placings
  • Accelerated book builds

IPOs

For the first category, you will get a period of time to research the opportunity. This includes the publication of a prospectus and often an expected share price range to ponder.

As ever, the devil is in the detail. An IPO prospectus is extremely detailed (no surprise given all the lawyers involved). Expect many devils to be buried.

For example, when leafing through the Deliveroo IPO prospectus, I spotted a large section discussing the risk of countries in Europe classifying riders as employees, rather than as contractors. That’s something you could well have expected to have an impact on margins. A potential red flag!

Placings

Listed companies can raise additional cash through placings.

Usually you will be given an outline of how the company will use the cash. Acquiring a rival for instance, or perhaps to make an investment into physical assets. (Real estate, a solar panel farm, or similar).

Generally you will have some time to think about investing in placings. This ranges from a couple of days to a few weeks. Often you’ll find these same offers advertised at your brokerage, too. They can be aimed at a large pool of investors, and aren’t necessarily PrimaryBid exclusives.

Accelerated bookbuild

Now the category that raises the heartbeat!

An accelerated bookbuild is a swift process. It is generally concluded within a day or so – more often within a few hours. Earlier this year I saw one close within 90 minutes.

An RNS is issued either before or more often after trading hours. This news alerts the market about the upcoming fundraising.

The RNS will detail the amount being raised, how the cash will be used, and sometimes the share price being offered. (Often that’s at a discount to the prior closing price). There will also be additional information, such as whether any directors or major shareholders are participating.

You may not see a share price mentioned. This will be determined by the bids put in by institutional investors. Retail investors should get the same price in the end. However you’re effectively investing blindly.

If there’s high demand your subscription may be scaled back, with priority given to new shareholders over existing ones. (PrimaryBid determines your status by asking whether you are an existing shareholder on subscribing.)

If you choose to invest, you’ll make a payment via your debit card. There can be a minimum investment amount, usually £250.

Upon their admission to the stock market your shares should be speedily transferred to your nominated brokerage account.

Wrapping up

PrimaryBid is another useful tool in an active investor’s kit. It offers simple access to opportunities that would otherwise be unavailable to us.

Directly investing through fundraisings can even be way of avoiding dealing charges, because the shares go directly into your broker account.

I’ve used the platform to subscribe to eleven offerings over the past year. The process is fairly slick, although not on a par with the likes of FreeTrade.

One downside PrimaryBid has in common with other apps are notifications designed to grab your attention. The aim is to increase the likelihood of you investing. Be conscious of this. Think before committing any funds – particularly with quick raises such as accelerated bookbuilds.

Placings, IPOs, and accelerated bookbuilds can be complicated. Let’s hear your questions and comments below!

See more articles by The Lone Exchanger in their dedicated archive.

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