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How to waste money

AI image of some bouncing lottery balls with the caption: What’s the draw?

Every month my sister sends me angry abuse over WhatsApp – although happily it’s not directed at me:

“Look at these idiots! Their stupid smug faces. What will they do in there every night? Binge watch GoggleBox while drinking cans of Stella in the fifth bedroom and then get lost looking for the third bathroom.”

Strong stuff, considering the object of her ire is invariably just whatever average-looking couple won this month’s dream property in the Omaze house lottery.

But my sister isn’t a misanthrope. Having a mock moan about the lucky winners is part of a ritual for her.

Cathartic I suppose. Maybe it’s partly what she pays Omaze £10 a month for.

Grand designs

After a year of these texts I took the bait and signed up to the same raffle myself.

Not to grump, mind you. I don’t need any excuses for that. 

Why then?

I suspect it was to give myself permission to daydream as materialistically as any Kardashian, albeit only for 15 minutes rather than for half-a-dozen TV series.

Omaze’s £3-5m properties are not so much out of my league as from another sport: one of those bling-y affairs with ‘World Series’ in the title.

And truthfully, even if I did have the money to buy an Omaze property for myself – so a net worth of £10m or more, by my reckoning – I don’t think I would.

There’s the running costs, the alienation of my friends. I’d rather have more investing money to play with.

So it’s more likely that a cute Kardashian with a crush is going to stalk me for six months than that I’d ever inhabit a ‘stunning six-bedroom country estate with its own luxury spa, wine cellar, and stables’.

But I do like nice things and I love nice homes.

And for £10 a month I get to be somebody different for a moment.

I’m not in it to win it

You might be shocked to hear that your supposedly financially astute friend on the Internet does something as dumb as playing a lottery.

But I mostly think it’s £10 well spent.

Besides the enjoyment factor, I suspect it’s a pressure valve that releases a bit of steam from my always being so returns-orientated with almost all my money for the last 30 years.

“Why not just look at the photos of each month’s prize home and save yourself £120 a year?”

Because I’m not stupid. Of course there’s statistically almost no chance of me winning. But the odds aren’t zero. And that makes all the difference.

“Buy a national lottery ticket instead. The odds are better and you can live wherever you like if you win!”

That’s very rational of you. And I’d agree if I was trying to maximise the expected value of my £10-a-month payment in financial terms.

But I’m not, because the expected value is nearly zero whether I play the lottery or do the house gamble.

If I was being sensible, I’d probably put the £10 a month into buying more Premium Bonds.

Even there though, the expected return on every incremental £10 is still near-zero. Only as the extra cash piled up over the years to tilt the odds on my total Premium Bond pot would I be having my cake (the chance of winning a million) and eating it (prizes won with average luck equating to a decent interest rate).

But that’s already more thought than I want to put into this silly £10 a month I throw away.

I just want to gawp at the ‘rustic fire-pit where you will gather your friends for long conversations overlooking the sea’ and dream.

Spendy and still thrifty

Everyone has a few things like this. They don’t make sense but they are fine to do anyway.

Writers as diverse as Ramit Sethi who will famously Teach You To Be Rich and Ermine over at Simple Living in Somerset are both totally okay with you spending some money on things that bring you joy.

For Sethi, penny-pinching is pointless. What matters is to find a way to support and live the life you love, rather than sleepwalking into a default mode of living.

Sethi is mostly against home ownership at today’s prices, for example. But supposing nothing brings you more pleasure than great tailoring? Then he has no problem with you spending thousands on a made-to-measure suit.

Ermine calls this living intentionally. He’s vastly more frugal than Sethi. Even so, I suspect he has a garage full of electronic gizmos that 95% of us would consider a total waste of time and money. And Mrs Ermine grows her own vegetables that would probably cost a fraction of the price in the shops.

More power to them! These are things that bring them joy and the relatively modest – and, crucially, easily afforded – cost doesn’t matter.

Save the money elsewhere.

Car-less and carefree

So much of the angrier disputes in the personal finance space come down to clashes that look like arguments about money but are really just squabbles about taste.

Even the almost irreproachable Mr Money Mustache is, to my mind, a little too harsh about driving what he calls too-big and too-expensive clown cars.

Don’t get me wrong! I have zero desire to spend any money on a clown car myself.

I’ve never owned even a normal car, and when I once worked out how much this had saved me – living in London, where life is fine without a car – and what those savings were worth compounded via my active investing, the number was so outlandishly high that I thought I’d see more readers rage-quit Monevator over it than Brexit.

However for many people – the cliché being men around my age – a dream car is something they’d willingly forego a thousand restaurant meals to own.

Now this is where I’m supposed to cite the sticker price of a truly expensive and obscure luxury vehicle.

But honestly I have no idea.

Is a Skoda Esprit a thing? What about an Aston Martian?

Romantic interlude: the French connection

The only time I recall ever wishing I owned a car was when I was 22 and doing badly at romance.

Still to develop the awesome armoury of lady-killing prowess that I can bring to bear today (note: my exes’ recollections may vary) I’d spent weeks trying to attract the interest of a disinterested French girl in a murky watering hole in a yet-to-gentrify Kings Cross.

We often ran into each other, thanks to our shared love of obscure indie bands. She even bought a copy of my fanzine!

And then one night she was actually with me at the bar, laughing – truly – at my jokes about Sartre, and furrowing her brow at my oh-so-insightful comments about the fusion of grunge and proto-BritPop.

So funny, she laughed, putting a hand on my shoulder.

Had I heard about the after-party in Hackney?

Obviously I hadn’t. But I mumbled something non-committal.

Cool, so did I have a car?

In those long ago pre-Uber days, getting in and out of still-dodgy Hackney was best done in a helicopter if you were a young French women living her best life in the capital.

But alas, I didn’t have a car.

A flicker of something on her face, and later she smiled at me not unkindly as she left with an up-and-coming journalist we both knew.

“He’s got a car!” she whispered with a wink over her shoulder.

Car parked

So yeah, there was that. And considering the episode still lives rent-free in my head after nearly 30 years, maybe I can’t truly say not owning a car has been 100% profitable.

But on the other hand, well, everything you’re thinking about a relationship built on wheels…

Plus of course I’ve got my bigger financial freedom fund at my back thanks to living a car-free life.

So no, I didn’t need to spend a cumulative six-figures over the years on cars.

Spending stereotypes at dawn

Besides, if I had chauffeured that French belle to somewhere off the Tube map that evening, then my life might have turned out completely differently.

Which would mean I might not have met my lovely girlfriend of today!

Although…while I’d be immeasurably poorer in uncountable ways if such an unthinkable outcome had occurred – okay, yes, she recently subscribed to Monevator – at least it would have saved us some friction over money.

You see my girlfriend, S., likes to buy clothes.

Fair enough, except she doesn’t seem to wear them very much.

I don’t mean she’s a nudist – although she is more curious about those beaches than I am.

Rather that I’m regularly sent photos of new outfits being tried on – or I’ll see them on her social media – but by her own admission most of these purchases are lucky to get an outing once a year.

Dressing down

To me, buying clothes not to wear them is ridiculous. If the sunshine holds, then this afternoon I’ll be heading out in my favourite multi-pocketed shorts that I’ve been wearing every week in summer for most of the past half-decade.

And let’s not even get into the environmental consequences of wanton clothes purchasing. (Here I fully agree with Mr Money Mustache on the ecological costs of clown car proliferation, too.)

But wait! I’m seeing her to-me-wasteful spending through my own lens of what matters.

I’m not looking at some £100 dress – unworn so far – through all the phases of the joy it’s bringing…

…the hunting, the rejecting, the anticipation, the looking at herself in the mirror and being happy with what she sees. The whimsical thoughts about when she might wear the dress and how it’ll make her feel.

S. is a bit younger than me. Long-time readers will know I think young people are already rich. A nice white shirt and well-fitted jeans and I think she’s a knockout. The rest would look better to me in her ISA.

But so what? This isn’t about me. There’s more in her ISA already than for many her age. And despite fairly modest earnings (by London standards) she’s also got no debt and even helps out her parents with their mortgage.

Who am I too judge an extra few dresses a year?

What’s more, for her part S. believes I put too much weight on my living space.

I book nicer hotel rooms than I need to – and I’m far more precious about my flat, which I mildly splurged out on to recreate the vibe of an upscale boutique hotel.

A hotel that S. would never pay a premium to stay in herself.

So who’s right?

Neither of us, of course. It’s pointless arguing about this stuff, so long as the major financial bases are being covered.

Nobody is right or wrong when it comes to how you waste money.

At the margin

I could conclude with a few academic studies that look at how best to spend your money.

Draw practical conclusions from research papers like To Do Or To Have or Spending Money on Others Promotes Happiness – or books such as The New Science of Smarter Spending.

But I called this post How To Waste Money for a reason. If I wanted to riff on How To Maximise The Impact Of Every Marginal Fifty Pence You Spend then I’d have done so. (Or more likely gone for a walk).

My point is I believe it’s totally okay to waste a bit of money now and then, provided you’re solvent and investing wisely.

Just be sure to waste money on things that are still – however silly – worth it to you.

Then save most of the rest.

Don’t sweat the small stuff

I guess this whole article might seem irresponsible to some people in the personal finance sphere.

But I write it in the certain knowledge that – like me – most Monevator readers are far more likely to suffer from Buffett’s Folly than from going crazy on the horses.

To my mind I’ve never been one for stinting on every penny, or for over-indexing on the latte factor.

But ‘to my mind’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.

The truth is I still rejoice at buying bargains with yellow stickers in my local M&S, despite my FIRE status.

And I’ve never had to budget, because I hugely underspend quite naturally.

Since my 20s I’ve always ‘paid myself first’ by putting a chunk of all I earn into savings and investments.

Indeed if I have any actionable financial advice to share today then it’s to automate your savings. Then you don’t have to sweat the lattes when it comes to spending whatever is left each month.

But you almost certainly do that already. And we’re in the minority.

How many would-be house raffle entrants do you think would write 2,000 words to justify a £10 flutter?

Answers on a postcard – although a postage stamp would suffice. The number is vanishingly small.

The luxury of losing a little

To conclude on a more downbeat note to show I haven’t suffered some kind of brain event in arguing for all this frivolity – a quick tale from my gym.

I’ve got to know one of the cleaners there quite well over the years.

The other day I came across her in the cafe with a bunch of lottery tickets spread out over the table. There must have been at least a dozen. She was checking them off manually against the results on her phone.

My first instinct was to tell her she should buy her tickets online so the checking is done automatically. No risk of missing out that way.

But after five decades I’ve finally learned to occasionally keep my mouth shut.

This was clearly part of her ritual. Going through the numbers with a pen and imagining with every new entry that it could be her.

So far, so similar to my Omaze-ing £10-a-month stupidity.

The difference, clearly, is what our little bets represented versus our respective financial situation.

If she buys this many tickets every week, then that must eat up a meaningful percentage of her disposable income.

Maybe even of her net worth, I don’t know.

I guess if she was a family member or close friend I would have lectured her. But it wasn’t my place, and instead I learned something.

“You have to try to win to make things different, don’t you?” she said in her heavy accent with a smile. “You have to hope and dream.”

I’m effectively an opt-in-only runner in the rat race. She’s not going to join me by saving and buying a tracker fund with – what – £50 a month? Not at her age anyway.

Maybe those lottery tickets are worth a lot more to her than to me after all.

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{ 37 comments… add one }
  • 1 Carl March 20, 2025, 3:25 pm

    I have been mocked many times (mostly online) for playing the lottery. I agree – it is all about intentional spending and recognising how your own psychology plays into financial decisions. If buying those tickets was compromising my financial stability or future, I would stop immediately. But it isn’t. And it is buying me some psychological comfort in that each week I know my FIRE date could come forwards by a decade. There is literally no other purchase I could make that would achieve the same outcome.

  • 2 TheFIJourney March 20, 2025, 3:52 pm

    Yeah completely agree with the main point on view here. I don’t try to judge other people’s expenditures unless it’s more or less crippling them in the present and the future. I also can’t compare my own frivolous expenses to another, what brings us all joy can be so different (long as not hurting anyone!)

    On a personal a note, I used to be far more spendthrift in the past but I have loosened up since then immeasurably for the better. My FI amount has moved a lot higher as well as I don’t aim for a kind of ERE level of FI anymore like I once did. I still choose wisely and love getting bargains and discounts though and this is never likely to change…

    ‘Don’t sweat the small or occasional large expenditures if it brings you joy and doesn’t affect you all that much in the long run’

    TFJ

  • 3 Maj March 20, 2025, 4:08 pm

    Ahem ! @ TI – Don’t judge a book etc. A few years ago, that cleaner may well have been me. Working several jobs while building the FI fund…. Your cleaner friend may well be the millionaire next door by now.

  • 4 Dazzle March 20, 2025, 5:14 pm

    Simple living in Suffolk – that’s a blast from the past

  • 5 Delta Hedge March 20, 2025, 6:42 pm

    No car for coming up 15 yrs now. Drove from 1994 to 2010. Second hand cars. One bill after another. Decided to see if could manage without for a year. 15 years later…

    Give it a try. Public transport’s not quite as bad as you probably think, even out of London (live in rural North now).

    Tbh, if any aspect is disappointing, then it’s rail. But even that’s only borderline dysfunctional (we’re a small sized country though, so should do it better/cheaper). Busses are super cost effective (£3), and more or less reliable.

    And it’s not like car ownership and driving is a bed of roses.

    Think of public transport as a ‘shared chauffeur driven’ service, but without the need to find and pay for parking; have insurance; or pay for road taxes, for repairs and servicing. Or to suffer depreciation and initial capital outlay. Or pay a chauffeur. You get the picture 😉

  • 6 Rhino March 20, 2025, 10:25 pm

    @carl #1 your playing of the lottery pales into insignificance in comparison with your incorrect use of the word literally as an intensifier. I certainly know which issue I would choose to mock you online for… To be fair Jane Austen did it as well (not the lottery)

    On the car issue, do none of you have big heavy things that you need to move about the place? How do you go windsurfing or take things to the tip?

    There’s a lot to be said for easing up a bit on the purse strings. Probably doubly so for the average monevator reader. I literally do mean that.

  • 7 Delta Hedge March 20, 2025, 10:35 pm

    Re heavy items: Not sure about windsurfing but…Round these parts local businesses deliver in and around the village mostly without extra charge. £6 on a sturdy shopping bag on wheels from the local hospice shop covers the mile each way on foot for the weekly food shop run. And large items that won’t get collected by bin men get carried – by hand – 2 miles each way to the recycling centre. Like cold showers, it builds character 😉

    Having said that, I do go a bit mad for second hand books. I’m only paying 50p to £2 for ones that’d be £10 to £30 new mind. But over the past 15 years I’ve amassed 3,500 (when I last tried counting them).

  • 8 Rhino March 20, 2025, 10:53 pm

    @DH – just updating my prior inaccurate mental model of you with a hardcore Sisyphean Northerner. You must be good at making bookshelves?

  • 9 Delta Hedge March 21, 2025, 12:30 am

    Bookshelves from said hospice shop, although have had a remarkably cheap local joiner put in some built-in shelving too. Still relying on Tufferman though for metal shelving in otherwise mostly empty garage for the last 1,500 odd. Advantage of having no car 🙂 Spending is like getting blood out of stone for me, but that might be unfair to stones.

  • 10 Martin T March 21, 2025, 2:53 am

    @DH if you’re 1m from a shop and 2m from the tip, that’s suburban for the north! Here in the properly rural north it’s 8m and 3 hills to the nearest shop and GP, with no public transport in sight. 14 to a supermarket or tip. No car? No chance.

  • 11 Delta Hedge March 21, 2025, 8:10 am

    It’s a big village. Small rural market town would be equally apt to describe.

    There’s either a minimum settlement size needed for no car in terms of facilities and/or one needs to be on a rail/bus to somewhere larger nearby.

    Having said that, exceptionally, one could, if push comes to shove, use a taxi (if available) but, save for one horrific downpour, I’ve avoided that expense to date.

    If, however, it’s a place with fewer than say 1,000 people (give or take) with no buses, with no GP or general shop, with no post office, no butcher or baker etc then, yeah, no car = no option.

    The planners call the larger villages like ours Rural Service Centres. Something to watch out for if you want to avoid development risk.

  • 12 xxd09 March 21, 2025, 8:39 am

    Very noticeable in our rural area that playing the lottery weekly (plus assorted scratch cards) are a big deal for the less well off part of the population-big sums of money involved
    I see £10 notes regularly handed over by people who obviously don’t have a lot of cash to spare
    Reason? Gets you through the weekend (like your favourite football team) with a dream that might come true till you have to go back to that less than desirable weekly job
    Human beings are odd creatures -dreams can override reality for most of us for long periods of time -perhaps a life sustaining mechanism for many of us
    I remember the words from the musical South Pacific-“If you don’t have a dream how you gonna have a dream come true?”
    xxd09

  • 13 Grumpy Old Paul March 21, 2025, 10:20 am

    No car (lack of interest plus dyspraxia and poor eyesight). I live in a town with a Co-op and a Highland Main Line railway station 1/4 mile away. Similarly to @DH I find local businesses tend to deliver. I get a monthly non-perishable/freezable food delivery from Tesco (delivery charge £1.50) which offers a much larger range of produce than the Co-op.
    I watch the pounds rather than the pennies and am very happpy to spend money on things which give me pleasure. These include choice plants and shrubs for my tiny garden, single estate loose leaf Darjeeling, coffee beans, decent wine and high quality mixed nuts all of which I order online from down south. The only relatively expensive luxury is my wood burner. My hi-fi is good enough for my ageing ears and I bagged four Chromecasts about 10 years ago which allow me to cast audio from my mobile or laptop to my sound system and decent internet radios in the kitchen and bedrooms. No Sonos or Apple products.

  • 14 Gordon Mead March 21, 2025, 10:46 am

    Slightly off topic but I read an article a while back about memecoins. It was the time of the NFT hysteria. Why would people buy these memecoins and NFTs? It’s a terrible investment strategy! The hypothesis is that people weren’t buying them as investments. They were treating them as lottery tickets. Maybe this Shiba Inu coin will be worthless or maybe, just maybe, it will go 1000x. And the buyer is happy with that.

    I like Ramit’s stuff as I’m approaching deccumulation and I need to train myself to enjoy my money (Of course, his message about intentional spending and saving is worthwhile at any life stage). I will always love those yellow M&S stickers though!

  • 15 LALILULELO March 21, 2025, 11:24 am

    Every few weeks I buy Schrödinger’s lottery ticket. It stays on the fridge for weeks as it could possibly be a winner until I actually check. While I think I’ve won a total of £35 over the decade of doing it, that little daydream most days is worth the occasional £2.

  • 16 AW March 21, 2025, 12:02 pm

    My spending usually involves buying few but nice things. If you avoid the implulse spending on tat, a few luxuries here and there are easily accommodated. To that end, I find by far the best money-saving measure is to remove adverts from my life, to the maximum practicably achievable extent. Once you realise that adverts are just carefully constructed methods of manipulation designed by companies to make you want something you don’t need, and previously didn’t even want, the more you realise how insidiously dangerous they are. My own tactic on this is to watch tv almost exclusively through BBC iPlayer and Netflix. The Netflix subscription cost more than pays for itself in this regard. I also try to follow the rule of only buying expensive items after a cooling off period, to prove to myself that my desire is genuine and not a fleeting whim. I’ve found that these kinds of purchases are far more rewarding, and suffer from less hedonic adaptation in use/ownership.

  • 17 Delta Hedge March 21, 2025, 12:18 pm

    There’s nothing so wonderful as being able to walk in the countryside.

    The views (and absence of urban blight on the landscape) are priceless but free (or at least it’s not all that noticeably much > expensive/ sq ft round here as compared to the nearest cities).

    I sometimes wonder if city folk ‘waste’ money on urban tractors, pilates and therapy etc because deep down urbanism / modernity makes them unhappy.

    It’s not a natural condition.

    Marshal Berman summed it all up like this:

    “There is a mode of vital experience — experience of space and time, of the self and others, of life’s possibilities and perils — that is shared by men and women all over the world today. I will call this body of experience “modernity.” To be modern is to find ourselves in an environment that promises us adventure, power, joy, growth, transformation of ourselves and the world — and, at the same time, that threatens to destroy everything we have, everything we know, everything we are. Modern environments and experiences cut across all boundaries of geography and ethnicity, of class and nationality, of religion and ideology: in this sense, modernity can be said to unite all mankind. But it is a paradoxical unity, a unity of disunity: it pours us all into a maelstrom of perpetual disintegration and renewal, of struggle and contradiction, of ambiguity and anguish. To be modern is to be part of a universe in which, as Marx said, “all that is solid melts into air.””

    The unhappiness of the self defeating urban consumerist hedonic treadmill also reminds me of this scene of dialogue in the classic film from 1981, “My dinner with Andre”:

    https://youtu.be/MRBZDmf1jSw

  • 18 dearieme March 21, 2025, 1:40 pm

    “over the past 15 years I’ve amassed 3,500”: think of them as a fuel reserve for your wood-burner. We used to find that newspapers (remember them?) wrapped up tightly and tied with a bit of wire made excellent fuel for our Baxi open fire. We also got free wood from the beach, which would need only to be washed free of salt and then stored for a while to dry.

    Years ago my wife found the answer to winning raffles. Take our small daughter along – a win was almost guaranteed. It led me to suggest to a psychologist that he should look into the heritability of luck. It led my wife to suggest that we should rent our daughter out to friends, having renamed her Winalot.

  • 19 Claus March 21, 2025, 1:55 pm

    I previously had a monthly subscription/entry to Omaze as the allure of winning a really nice/big house was strong. I cancelled it when I realised that there was always something not quite right with them.

    Mrs Claus occasionally enters the national lottery, particularly so when the Euromillions is c£150M. We both joke that is her contribution to our family financial planning!

  • 20 gadgetmind March 21, 2025, 4:45 pm

    I have never done the lottery. Not once, nor scratch cards, nor fruit machines.

    The chances of winning are slim to none, and it’s all a distraction from the fact that other than for a vanishingly small set of lucky people, the key to wealth is for most just down to working on your skills and knowledge, working hard, and investing wisely. I’ve tried to explain the proven principle of “Get rich slowly” to younger people and they look at me like I’m from planet stupid.

    Ah well.

  • 21 BBBobbins March 21, 2025, 5:22 pm

    Prompted by this I’ve splashed £2.50 on a Euromillions ticket for tonight. If I can avoid checking my email until Sunday evening it buys me 48 hr of dreaming and then when I almost certainly bag the jackpot I’ll put a few hundred quid behind a bar for a Monevator social.

    nah scratch that I’ll delegate the choice of pub and the logistics to a minion hired for the purpose

  • 22 Delta Hedge March 21, 2025, 5:51 pm

    Lotteries (#15, 19-21), NFTs and meme coins (#14) are a trap. “Knowing where the trap is—that’s the first step in evading it” (Frank Herbert, Dune).

    For lotteries the odds are fixed against you.

    In the stock market (time in the market, versus timing the market) the longer you stay invested the better your odds.

    But in a casino the longer you stay the more you lose.

    And in meme coins the base odds are bad to begin with, realistically, at best, 1.7% chances of 100x-ing:

    https://open.substack.com/pub/marketsentiment/p/the-losers-game

    But, more relevantly, there’s just no exit liquidity in these coins.

    So, even if you somehow got in when it first listed on an exchange somewhere, when you sell you won’t actually get the price that you see on Coinmarketcap or CoinGecko.

    This is what the young uns today don’t seem to get 🙁

  • 23 The Investor March 21, 2025, 6:19 pm

    @all — Cheers for the comments, been a treat reading all the different takes. 🙂

    I love the idea of a Schrödinger’s Lottery Ticket – you could slash the cost of this foible by a factor of four or more, depending on how long the tickets are valid for!

    Just make sure it doesn’t get soggy in there. I suspect winning the lottery and not being able to claim is probably twice as bad for happiness in terms of how rotten it makes you feel versus actually winning the draw.

    Just think of that poor bloke staring forlornly at that refuse tip in Newport, dreaming of his Bitcoin rusting away in a PC hard drive somewhere beneath the buried junk…

  • 24 The Adviser March 22, 2025, 7:49 am

    I’ve always thought of lottery tickets as a bit of a paradox. Rationally, we know the odds are terrible, but the hope they offer is worth the price for many. I have done Omaze and the Lottery regularly, never even come close to winning but it scratches an itch.

    Morgan Housel said something similar on the topic, “Lottery tickets are an investment in hope. The odds are bad, but the payoff is a feeling—one that can be worth the cost, even if the math says otherwise.”

  • 25 Lottery March 22, 2025, 9:52 am

    I think I read somewhere that you can actually engineer a positive expectation on a lottery. The argument went something like this. If the probability of winning the full jackpot is 1 in 45 million then if the lottery costs 1 pound and the full jackpot is more than 45 million, then you actually have a positive expectation! This logic can be applied to any of these types of lotteries.

  • 26 Alan S March 22, 2025, 10:04 am

    Assuming the price of one lottery ticket per week, i.e., about £100 per year, was invested instead (80% UK stocks, 20 UK long bonds, 20% UK cash) over a period of 40 years then historically the value of the pot, in real terms, would have ranged from about £3.6k to a median of £10.6k and a maximum of around £30k. At a drawdown rate of 3.5%, these would have provided weekly income in retirement of about £2.40, £7.20, and £20.20, respectively.

    So, there is an element of luck in investments too, although the range of outcomes are smaller than for the lottery (which is effectively close to zero or £millions). Given that to many people ‘the stock market’ conjures up images of speculation, crashes, and fat-cat bankers (and, possibly, brokers throwing themselves out of windows) giving the impression that it is more of a lottery than the lottery itself and, before the big bang, index funds and online platforms, an expensive one (e.g., some of the funds I invested in in the 1990s had a 5% upfront commission charge together with ongoing costs of 1%). So, is it surprising that some people might prefer to put their spare cash in lottery tickets.

  • 27 Lottery part 2 March 22, 2025, 10:23 am

    I’m fine with the whole memecoin/ nft lottery type mentality. The real key, as is often the case in trading/ investment is how size your position. If you put 1 % of your portfolio in to some riskier investments and spread that 1 % among several of those risky investments ( ie diversify) then why not have a punt? The most you could lose is 1 % of your portfolio, assuming that all your investments are losses, but the upside is potentially phenomenal.

    @DH 22 -that is a good article. Hidden in there is an interesting fact that about 8% of the coins they backtested did actually hit 100x at some point. I will take those odds all day long. That is a huge positive expectation. Again the key is that you don’t put too much of your portfolio in to these risky investments (ie an amount that you are willing to lose completely) and you diversify.

  • 28 Calculus March 22, 2025, 1:59 pm

    @TI – Enjoyed the interlude – I spent some time in London in the early 90’s in my twenties and yep, Indie gigs. The Intrepid Fox, Mean Fidler, Electric Ballroom, usually ending up at Bar Italia in Soho because it was the only place open. My future English wife brought the wheels – a clapped out Austin 1100 that her Aunt had left her. The engine was prone to overheating so it was heater on full blast, windows down most of the time. For me, even with those few jewels, the nightlife was often underwhelming – hard to get around without a car, closing time too early and the craic per square mile wasn’t there – or maybe I just wasn’t in the know.. Saying that I’ll be back in May for Wide Awake festival and some quality time with student daughter. Small paybacks.

  • 29 weenie March 24, 2025, 10:29 am

    Never played Omaze, not sure I want the hassle of winning a luxury property!

    Was an avid lotto player from when it was first introduced and spent a lot more on tickets when my financial situation wasn’t great. I stopped for many years when I came to my senses but resumed last year, playing the Thunderball for a £1 a week, where the jackpot is ‘only’ £500k, not such a huge sum as to cause me stress! I also do charity lotteries but that’s just donations to a cause, with no expectation of winning anything (although there are occasional wins).

    Good luck with Omaze, TI!

  • 30 ermine March 24, 2025, 11:07 pm

    > You see my girlfriend, S., likes to buy clothes.

    Your job, sir, is to not miss the opportunity to STFU 😉 What S likes, she likes, and you like too…

    I have played the National Lottery exactly once. My favourite lady singer was at Television Centre and had something to do with the selection gubbins as well as a CD to push, and I had gotten a bunch of fellow aficionados to attend. Me and dear ex GF bought a ticket each. Sure as hell it was irrational, but hey, live intentionally. Neither of us won. But we had a good time.

    But yeah, I’ve stood in line in the co-op wanting to buy a pint of milk and seen The System sell empty dreams to people who can’t afford the price of entry. It Could Be you but you’re more likely to be struck by lightning before you collect. Color me cynical but I don’t like those odds. Playing the NL once is all you need to do, lifts the odds from zero to something, then leave it be. Oh and don’t hide under trees in a thunderstorm.

    I hold premium bonds for the same sort of reason. I don’t have to complicate my tax return, it’s almost instant liquidity for a useful amount, and you don’t have to worry about the counterparty going bust. Well, you do, but if HMG defaults you have much bigger problems on your hands!

  • 31 Mrs Ermine March 25, 2025, 7:48 am

    I had no idea that Omaze even existed! Too much house means too much cleaning, or I guess if you’re rich enough, organising someone else to clean, neither of which appeals to me. But increasingly I think I’m out of sync with much of the modern world, and, increasingly, I’m okay with that. And good luck to everyone with their extravagance of choice!

    On growing my own veg. Many people do spend more on growing veg than is justified by the supermarket equivalent value of the veg. Raised beds with bought in compost, fancy tools etc. But I’m pretty confident that these days, for me, it is a net saving – I organise the food at Ermine Towers so there’s some science behind this assertion. I have all the tools I need and I’m a former market gardener so I know how to do it on the cheap. These days I even make plant pots out of old yogurt pots, for example.

    You could argue that the extra house required for a largish garden offsets any saving, but Mr Ermine wanted a detached house (loud hifi and zero noise from neighbours) so and the biggish garden came too so it suited us both. And occasionally getting help with hedges/trees etc, let’s call that an incidental cost of the hifi, shall we?!

    Seriously, it is possible to save money growing veg, if you manage to get hold of an allotment for example, but you have to keep your wits about you. I spent as much of my early adult life as possible on my allotment(s) as possible (and they weren’t trendy then, the old boys who were my neighbours were utterly bemused/baffled by the young woman on the field) and I am quite sure it saved me several hundred pounds a year. I paid my mortgage off at the age of 32. Yes, I know it was back in the day, but I wasn’t on a huge salary. Don’t get me started on how ridiculous house prices are now, I think it is appalling – in my defence I never was, and never will be a buy to landlady.

    Back to veg. Home grown veg is fresher – I cannot bring myself to buy salad leaves as even the fanciest ones seems stale to me. And these days I grow perennial vegetables which have a demonstrably higher nutritient content than annual veg (keeping Mr Ermine’s fur glossy, though he does whinge if I serve too much kale, perennial or otherwise).

    Oh, and you’re quite right. The garage is stuffed with Mr E’s electronic geegaws, many in component form as far as I can tell. Plus a shed. And a study. It seems to make him very happy and I’m all for that

  • 32 Alan S March 25, 2025, 7:53 am

    @ermine (#30)

    My curiosity was piqued so I looked it up. The annual number of lottery millionaires (360 at 7 per week according to https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/life-changing/winner-millionaire-map, although their stats appear to be a bit ‘off’) is about 5 to 10 times the number of people struck by lightning in the UK (30 to 60 according to https://www.rospa.com/leisure-water-safety/leisure-safety/lightning).

    Agree about PB, for normal and high rate tax payers the effective interest rate is currently much higher than the current 3.8% (the exact effective rate depends on how much interest allowance you otherwise use).

  • 33 ermine March 25, 2025, 12:32 pm

    @AlanS My bad, these were Americans. Either the force of rapacious capitalism is stronger over there or the lightning is. I guess since you can occasionally survive being hit by lightning that improves the relative odds of National Lottery collection.

  • 34 Alan S March 26, 2025, 8:10 am

    @ermine (#33)

    No worries – my understanding (which could be faulty, my professional interest in the earth’s atmosphere started at heights much greater than where thunderstorms originate) is that continental America does get hit by lightning quite a lot more often than the UK.

  • 35 The Investor March 26, 2025, 9:48 am

    @Mrs Ermine — Thanks so much for coming back with a report from the front line of gardening for fun AND profit. Very interesting, as my own experience — mostly on/off growing things in tubs and bits of earth in London over 20 years, plus helping parents with their endeavours — suggests we’d be financially better-off if seeds, spades, and garden centres were all made illegal, alongside Class A drugs and betting on prize fights… 😉

    It seems that scale and experience are key….

    A couple of decades ago I used to daydream about doing the smallholding thing (The Good Life, but less suburban) but my ‘achievements’ at growing my own put me off, since in any realistic appraisal I’d have been better off continuing to work from home on my new farmstead and get food delivered from Ocado. 😉

    Very glad it is all working out for someone, and as I said originally I’d never knock it for the enjoyment factor. I don’t think I’ve ever considered a minute of gardening a wasted minute, and typing that out it does make me wonder why I don’t do a LOT more gardening! 🙂

  • 36 Mrs Ermine March 27, 2025, 8:23 am

    @The Investor it’s so interesting comparing notes on how we’ve gardened, and indeed how we’ve chose to live. Gardening for pleasure and wellbeing is a fine way to spend time IMHO.

    If I take a step back from gardening, and indeed smallholding (I went from one allotment to two, to one hectare alongside a full time job then a five hectare plot that became full time work), it will certainly have had a very negative effect on my overall financial situation as compared to the counterfactual me who stuck it out in IT and engineering.

    But I figured out very early on that “a proper job” = “hell on earth” for me, and that I could only earn a living doing something I really cared about, that way I could really make things happen, and that meant being self employed, so after fifteen years of holding my nose and working as a professional engineer I set up my ecological community farm. It was exhausting and fantastic, I don’t regret it for a moment, but it required a pretty extreme level of obsession!

    A side effect of that experience is knowing how to live well on less. It’s a useful life skill, and I see it as a potentially useful insurance against some of the crazier possible futures we all face. But I won’t go into apocalyptic exuberance here

    Happy gardening!

  • 37 The Accumulator March 27, 2025, 12:13 pm

    I have nothing useful to add but I loved this thread!

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