What caught my eye this week.
Has winter dragged on for you too, or is it just me? I asked ChatGPT if the weather has been unusually cold and it waffled on for a bit with some anecdotes and then said I should check with the BBC.
Which seemed pretty unhelpful, but then I thought it’s also scarily similar to what you’d actually hear if you asked your nearest mate.
Anyway it has been especially chilly for the past few days. January saw the UK’s coldest night since 2015. Meanwhile on renewable energy investor forums I see debates about whether the slowdown in the North Atlantic conveyor has caused the wind to not blow as much as was forecasted. Which could explain why I’ve worn gloves every day since November.
But I also know I’m prone to Seasonally Affected Depression.
Every January I think I’ve dodged it and then it kicks in – well, about now – and I find myself reading articles about emigrating to Australia.
And yet crazed with cold fever I also ran these numbers on living on a canal boat. A definite case of jumping out of the refrigerator and into the icebox.
Chill brains
A big problem with emotions is how they skew judgement.
For instance I just saw this story about the Met police objecting to a new jazz club in Covent Garden on the grounds that drunk patrons might get mugged on the way home. It seemed ridiculous and I despaired at what London has become since I first arrived in the early-1990s.
But actually…safer is one thing it has become. So am I properly weighting that as I read the story against what mostly appears to me to be the enfeebling of London’s citizens and its nightlife?
Politics is where this emotional distortion effect looms largest.
Perhaps you’ve read in my previous Weekend Reading links how someone’s perceptions instantly reverse in the US depending on whether their favoured candidate is in the White House? So far-reaching is Trump’s chaos theory politics that I don’t doubt it’s affecting me too.
Then again there’s enough to be dispirited about closer to home.
Not least that despite demonstrably hobbling the UK economy – to the tune of £1,750 per person, annually – with his economically insensible Brexit, Nigel Farage is back and doling out his sounds-about-right slop to the same credulous faction who fell for it last time.
We’re told his resurgent Reform party could even dethrone the Conservatives.
Who knows? Though nobody could do a better job of unseating the Tory party than the Tory party managed over the past decade.
The Reform party this week said it would tax renewable energy, reflecting the party leadership’s long history of climate denial. Soon British policy could be driven by the motiviations of an angry middle-aged man in a near-empty pub on a Wednesday afternoon shouting at the television in the corner.
Elsewhere The Atlantic is reflecting on how Covid deniers won – politically, not scientifically – and Politico listed the 37 ways the supposedly disavowed ‘Project 2025’ has already shown up in Trump’s executive orders.
It’s depressing.
Cold comfort
But maybe you’re depressed about me bringing politics to your otherwise favourite financial resource?
Well I have some sympathy, believe it or not.
Over the past six months I’ve grown increasingly irritated at how one of my favourite small-cap share pundits has spent years bemoaning British doomsters as unpatriotic while he dismisses the idea that Brexit had any impact on the UK economy – even as he repeatedly sees an economic recovery around the corner and then is mystified when we instead limp along in semi-stagflation.
Stick to shares, I mutter – obviously in large part because I disagree with him.
Perhaps as you did with me above.
Naturally I think I’m even-handed. For example I flagged up the failings I saw in Rachel Reeves’ budget.
But then I would think that, wouldn’t I?
We all believe we’re above-average drivers.
The big political currents underway seem too important to avoid any mention of on my own website, even if only from a narrow financial perspective – which I do mostly try to stick to. It’s a highfalutin thing to say, but it almost feels irresponsible to look the other way when I have a platform.
Yet I really can see the sense in Jaren Dillan’s perspective at We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards, when he argues it’s okay to ignore politics:
Do you want to be right, or do you want to be happy?
Let’s say you choose the former. Good luck? Maybe get back to me in four years with a list of what you actually accomplished.
Yes, I am suggesting that we are all impotent. Yes, I am suggesting that one person can’t make a difference. Yes, I am just that cynical.
But deep down—do you disagree with me? Do you think that your rage-posting on social media is going to make a difference? Not only will it not make a difference, it is counterproductive, because, chances are, you’re turning people off in the process.
I know he’s probably right. Who has changed their mind about Brexit, despite its non-existent achievements? The polls have mostly turned against it only because so many of its supporters have died.
Oh well, at least my portfolio is up nicely so far in 2025.
And we’re inching towards spring…surely?
Have a great weekend!
p.s. Moguls: I didn’t get a chance to send out the Monevator merchandise email this week – so don’t worry, you haven’t missed out on the fashion event of the century. The next two to three days for sure!
From Monevator
Investing in infrastructure – Monevator [Members]
Lab-grown diamonds – Monevator
From the archive-ator: Should you invest in buy-to-let through a limited company? – Monevator
News
Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view click through to read the article. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing to sites you visit a lot.
UK economy saw 0.1% growth in final months of 2024 – Yahoo Finance
Why 1.5m Britons are still hunting for a job – Guardian
Annuity sales jump 24% to a ten-year high – ABI
Nationwide claims big cash ISA deposits are funding a lot of mortgages – Guardian
Government must stop ‘ridiculous’ proliferation of millions of small pension pots – IFS
First-time buyer market rebounds with 19% more purchases… – IFA Mag
…but beware: just seven weeks until stamp duty increases – This Is Money
Thames Water launches appeal to raise bills even higher – Guardian
Non-dom tax raid forces Castle-owning fintech founder out of UK – CityAM
Local government pension schemes headed for embarrassment of riches [Search result, nerdy] – FT
2025E Capex / 2025E Net Income
What will be the return on the Magnificent Seven’s A.I. spending? – Verdad
Products and services
How Vanguard plans to play disruptor again – FT
Barclays and Santander cut mortgages rates below 4%… – What Mortgage
…but Barclays has also cuts its easy-access savings rate to just 1.26% – T.I.M.
You can get up to £3,000 cashback when you transfer your pension to Interactive Investor. Terms and fees apply. – Interactive Investor
Goldman Sachs targets leading role in active ETFs in Europe – FT
Will you miss out on the full state pension? – Be Clever With Your Cash
…some people are struggling to find out – This Is Money
Open an account with low-cost platform InvestEngine via our link and get up to £100 when you invest at least £100 (T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – InvestEngine
What does ‘making tax digital’ actually mean? – Which
Vintage experts on 21 ways to buy secondhand treasures – Guardian
Does living in a hard water area make energy bills more expensive? – This Is Money
Homes for sale with links to TV and film, in pictures – Guardian
Comment and opinion
OBR gloom spells trouble ahead for Rachel Reeves – The Spectator
Feeling guilty about an inheritance – Kindness FP
“My 1.3% mortgage rate is soaring to 4.5%” – Telegraph via Yahoo Finance
The misery value of money – A Teachable Moment
Baby Maeve and the Ovarian Lottery – Best Interest
The five types of wealth [Podcast] – Plain English
More evidence index fund flows are boosting large cap share prices… – K.O.I.
Think you’re too smart to be caught by scammers? [Search result] – FT
The perils of line-item thinking – Behavioural Investment
Why speculators are still running wild when money is no longer free – FT
Never apply for a job online again – Hot Takes
$1 million is still a lot of money… – Of Dollars and Data
…but who wants to look like a million dollars these days? – Guardian
Alternative assets mini-special
Financial firms are still pushing to turn alternative assets into ‘liquid alts’ – I.I.
Did real assets hedge the Covid-era inflation spike? – CFA Institute
US endowments join crypto rush by building Bitcoin portfolios [Search result] – FT
Naughty corner: Active antics
Broken markets? – The Brooklyn Investor
OnlyFan’s sticky business model – SatPost
An interview with Fundsmith founder Terry Smith [Podcast] – R.W.H. via Apple
Commoditisation in the active management industry – BakStack
Primary sources – Rational Walk
The house of cards built by startups and VCs – Crunchbase
Kindle book bargains
Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb – £0.99 on Kindle
The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor – £0.99 on Kindle
Edible Economics by Ha-Joon Chang – £0.99 on Kindle
Taxtopia by The Rebel Accountant – £0.99 on Kindle
Environmental factors
World’s sea-ice falls to record low – BBC
Long-term investors split with asset managers over climate risk – FT
It’s hard to cut out single-use plastic for even one month – Guardian
London’s new super sewer is now fully connected – BBC
Robot overlord roundup
Three observations – Sam Altman
Ex-Google boss fears for AI ‘Bin Laden scenario’ – BBC
The embarrassing failure of the Paris AI summit – Transformer
Two AIs discuss AI in an AI podcast – Not Your Advisor [and how to fool them]
At work, a quiet AI revolution is underway… [Search result] – FT
…but not at one law firm, which now restricts AI use – BBC
Trade wars mini-special
Trump VAT threat raises fears of hit to UK – BBC
Deglobalisation: diversification rather than decoupling – Klement on Investing
When are tariffs good? – Noahpinion
Mario Draghi: Europe has successfully put tariffs on itself [Search result] – FT
Off our beat
100 years of London skyscrapers – Londonist
How to achieve immortality – The Honest Broker
Why Gen Z will never leave home – Maclean’s [h/t Abnormal Returns]
LinkedIn is a weird, workaholic wasteland – Sherwood
Is romance in movies dying? The stats are in… – Stephen Follows
…and they’re also in on whether people hate Coldplay – Stat Significant
How to write a good sex scene – Lit Hub
And finally…
“As soon as something stops being fun, I think it’s time to move on. Life is too short to be unhappy. Waking up stressed and miserable is not a good way to live.”
– Richard Branson, Screw It, Let’s Do It
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Sorry I know this is a bit off topic but as we’re talking about the decline of the state. Has anyone been following the SEND children and councils having statutory duty to ferry them to school. Apparently 9800 is the average taxi cost per child. Meanwhile these send badges seem to be being given out like confetti due to all the financial incentives. Not sure whether it’s SAD like yourself but I just think this country is finished now. Far too many takers and not enough people happy to contribute.
Also just seen the Terry Smith link I’m halfway thru the podcast he seems a cool guy.
@TI
I found the FT’s How Vanguard plans to play disruptor again link paywalled. I also tried searching in Google in a private window and clicking the subsequent link method but to no avail. I guessed it worked at the time but they’ve switched off public access since?
Yes .. mad politics that seems bad long term yet the value of my SIPP keeps rising. It can’t last.
Jim, we have an EHCP for my son and that took over 2 years to get – this was 2015-2018 so pre Covid, since when things have spiked.
If you think getting an EHCP is easy then you haven’t gone through the system to get your child an EHCP.
> Seasonally Affected Depression
Surely you’re well off enough to bunk off to somewhere a bit warmer for a couple of months? I considered Madeira for that sort of thing, but in general, go south young man 😉
Blighty hasn’t really got the range of latitudes that the US has to do snowbirding but London has three airports at last count. The FI usually are flexible on timing. You’ve obviously got to watch out for your 90 days out of 180 EU visa rule if you have plans later on. Appreciated S.A.D. is about light levels rather than the correlated temperature drop, but you get more light further south too.
Yeah, I’m with you TI. Not enough sunshine and too much Trump. I should follow Ermine’s advice and establish a regular winter getaway. I’m already avoiding the news even more than normal.
Spoonbill I was referring to SEND not EHCP. I’d guess obtaining a send badge for a kid wouldn’t be too hard nowadays. How else do we explain the massive rises? I’m sure there is lots of genuine need out there but where do we draw the line. Parents in this article can’t take their kid to school because of work. So either stump up the taxi fare with the wages from work, or change to part time and take your kid to school seems pretty simple to me. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68665303
@Jim #1
I like to think I’m a pretty positive person, but I agree – it feels like the UK is done for. I can barely read the paper anymore – it’s just annoying, and the politicians seem to make everything worse.
Talent will move increasingly to the states and we’ll slide downhill a little quicker.
I’ve been talking of retiring abroad for too many years and missed the NHR in Portugal, but Cyprus and Greece look very generous. No tax on dividends and 5% on Pensions for 17 years….
Maybe things will look better in the spring, on the plus side the UK is a tax haven for pensioners (TY 24/25 anyway).
@TI Not sure this is the right forum for ill-informed comments about children with special needs and the stresses and strains on their parents. Facile suggestions about complex topics are not welcome.
Jim,
Nobody gets a LA funded taxi because they have been obtained a “SEND badge” – whatever that is meant to be. A school might place a child on their SEND register as they can see the child has significant learning difficulties of some type, that really just means they are on the radar for the school’s SENCo and they then do their best to put in something to help them out. Usually this is very little as state schools are extremely stretched, and it’s not a legal obligation for them if no EHCP is in place.
You have to fight for years with a system designed to be as unhelpful as possible to get an EHCP, which is a legal document setting out the child’s needs and how they should be met. Then you have to find a school which agrees it can meet need. Each part of the process takes months at best, but usually years. It’s painfully slow.
A taxi might be necessary where local authorities have no suitable provision within their boundary, as the law states that for placements out of catchment, transport should be provided.
Some LAs have started to ask families to work out their own arrangements as they are nearly bust, which is not legal but it takes a long time to appeal/go to tribunal over such things.
None of this situation is the fault of the families struggling with a system that is hopelessly under resourced. Children don’t like taking taxis out of their own area to a school miles away, it lengthens their school day and they often end up stuffed in with several other children with their own struggles.
What would improve the situation massively is if all local authorities had enough capacity to give places to children with EHCPs within their boundary, avoiding the need for funded transport.
That would be expensive. So Labour are making noises that they are going to all but stop issuing EHCPs and increase training for mainstream school staff so SEN children are placed there. This might work for some, but it will fail quite a lot of families.
In Wales, there is no system to get an EHCP. So many families end up leaving the education system and do their own thing, sometimes with a home ed community.
Anyway, just wanted to put you straight about taxis. Any family with that arrangement will have been through hell before they have reached the stage you’re looking at, it’s a harrowing process that you would not wish on anyone.
Yes it’s been a bit of a slog of a winter by the time we hit this stage of the year. Warmer temperatures and the clock change seem long overdue.
I’m a fairly positive chap but the world has never felt more dangerous to me. I’ve no idea the direction the US will ultimately end up taking but I wonder when we need to start worrying about the 60%+ weighting in our index funds.
On emigrating, these southern European countries are economic basket cases too though right? Granted the weather’s nicer, but I did read some studies a while back saying weather was poorly correlated with mental health, other factors weighed more heavily. That said, I think a month or so out of the UK winter can be a spirit lifter, especially as that way you get to experience a significant delta in temp as opposed to upping sticks permanently. I think canaries can be good for this if done right, lots of sports people do winter training blocks over there.
The wages in the states are crazy, but it’s a funny old place. Not for everyone. When I go over there I can’t square away how they get the basics so badly wrong yet still lead the world. For example, you can’t pay for a meal or fuel in a sane way, walking seems to be an extreme sport and the food is worse than awful. It puzzles me. Scandinavian countries seem to be most sensible, but the weather is even worse! You can’t really win?
@Rob is quite right @Jim, EHCP is super hard. And also if you your child is Autistic getting diagnosed which is also required for EHCP also takes years, and it’s really a pandemic as children on ASD are rising exponentially and there is no explanation and as usual “science” rejects a lot and there is no good support for it as nothing proven scientifically.
Mainstream schools are not prepared to deal with such children and Special schools have huge waitlists as mainstream rejects a lot of kids. It’s really bad, not only in the UK actually but everywhere in the world.
@Rhino – I dunno about southern European countries being economic basket cases, Spain seems to be putting out some decent economic data recently… although granted for the previous 15 years it wasn’t so good, but any visit during that time it always seemed rather pleasant to me. The impact of climate change might be a threat to the longevity of it as a pleasant destination however
@flotron – yes I did see a few articles suggesting Spain was on the up. I was just talking big handfuls over past few decades say, Spain has had historically poor unemployment figures. I dare say a visit to parts of the UK could seem quite pleasant over the summer?
Good to have some additional information around comment #1. I’ve seen substantial efforts at our local comp to increase SEN provision as a governor there. This is helping to alleviate some of the pressure on the local specialist schools. The ‘taxis like confetti’ doesn’t chime with my experience either. LA funding is very tight.
@never give up – “I wonder when we need to start worrying about the 60%+ weighting in our index funds”
Well with Trump, Starmer & Rayner clusterfuck here and mad dictators around the world – I’d say start now but probably a bit late already to do that much about it. Plus if you have quite a bit in GIA accounts, as I do, you can’t easily just switch out funds without a large CGT bill waiting for you these days. With miniscule CGT allowance you can’t even bed & isa each year without it resulting in CGT bill for doing so – never mind about living from it.
I don’t know just about Farage bashing – it’s the damned lot of them! The political class are not worth anything IMO. They are all self serving and as corrupt as each other – whether in US, here, anywhere pretty much. Whoever we vote in nothing changes – it’s just a similar debacle with whoever – the Tory dropouts, the Labour ongoing crapfest (couldn’t run the proverbial p*ss up in the brewery – that’s if there’s any left due to number pubs they’re putting out of business) or Farage’s lies to grab power, won’t even mention divvy Davey. They are all liars and as corrupt as each other – the expenses scandal was just one example of that – they were all in it together then. Agree with others – this country’s done for.
Agree it does seem a great idea to get out of this hell hole of a country and somewhere warmer with much better resorts – not dilapidated/run into the ground and nowt spent on em for decades but when you actually do and negotiate all the bother of getting to airports (minimum couple hrs each way for me), getting any decent & inexpensive parking for car and then shitshow of being managed through security like cattle waiting in line at the slaughterhouse for their fate, often delays due to our weather or this, that or the other (could be likely an ant crossing the runway and so environmentalists protesting!) Then you get to the other end and transfers aren’t there. The food can be hit and miss and the tea is often like dishwater. Oh and don’t forget all the calamity/stress beforehand to arrange this stressbuster of a jaunt – hopefully while not getting scammed online in the process, having to fit in around any work/other commitments, worry of house when away and if local scum in area will be trashing the gaff before you get back – as well as stress when you get back catching up with everything. Feel you need another couple of holidays just to cope with it all – makes you wonder why the hell bother? Think I’ll just stay in not so great Britain and watch the rain on the windows.
Argh @AS, I was waiting for the but, the glimmer of hope, the positive ending, the correcting course of action and it never came!
@TI: emigrate Auz/weather blues. We all make our own weather & take it with us:
https://youtu.be/b99vu9bH2Zc?
🙂
“despair at what London has become”: yeah. Check out the silent hole where there used to be a music scene. When Fabric shut the party was truly over. Truth be told though, this backward looking, uptight and reactionary country has had a downer on fun since long before s.63(1) CJPO 1994 and the absurd and over the top backlash against the Castlemorton Common rave on the May 1992 bank holiday weekend.