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Weekend reading: Can we take back control from Brexit?

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[A quick update on Brexit thoughts for those who want to reasonably discuss it. For those who don’t, please feel free to skip to the links.]

Imagine having anticipated something for 30 years, finally getting the freedom to do it, and then making a car crash out of it.

But enough about my progress as a mid-life singleton. I’m thinking here of the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party.

You know – those 40-odd guys who can’t muster up enough votes to unseat the UK’s most ineffectual leader since Hugh Laurie’s Prince Regent in Blackadder the Third, and yet who’ve somehow managed to send 63 million of us towards an apparently imminent impoverished future.

You might think the World Class farce we’ve endured over the past 30 months would see me smiling.

After all a second referendum is looking ever more likely, if still not odds-on.

But unfortunately, I continue to read and hear abundant evidence that most of the Leave voting contingent still doesn’t get it.

And that means despite the demographic challenges of that faction (i.e. its original margin of victory is literally dying) it’s quite possible Leave could win again.

Especially if the Remain side sticks to the previous policy of dull facts over bus-splattering bullshit fabrications.

No wonder Leave voters seem almost as angry as Remainers:

A second referendum is a horrible solution to a stupid problem, with plenty of downsides.

However from my perspective it has the minor virtue of being less terrible than all the other alternatives.

Whose Brexit is it, anyway

Can we not stop this death march? Absolutely no one seems happy with the direction of travel.

Not even the Leave voters, that’s the most galling – if unsurprising – thing.

Blogger Ermine came close to capturing this contradiction at the heart of the Leave vote with a graphic this week. Leavers are represented here by the two Mickey Mouse ears on top of the smug metropolitan elite mug:

What @ermine’s Venn diagram is missing though is the set of people who voted either Leave or Remain to make us poorer.

Perhaps that’s because it doesn’t exist – despite even the Government admitting that’s what we face.

True, a tiny set of Brexiteers have belatedly conceded that a No Deal Brexit will hit us in the national nads.

That, they now say, is a price worth paying for sovereignty / blue passports / the right to negotiate trade deals with Madagascar and Kazakhstan.

But all the leading Leave-supporting players continue to lie to the electorate.

Theresa May herself rounded off her Deal Debate Dodge by harking back to the supposed ability of Brexit to reduce the inequalities and insecurities she spoke of in the aftermath of the vote – despite almost every single analysis of Brexit showing a net negative impact, economically-speaking.1

If you want sovereignty or fewer immigrants from Brexit, fair enough. Own that. Don’t claim the tooth fairy too.

But sadly, the very few Leavers I come across in real-life are still saying things like “The EU needs us more than we need them.”

The same EU that has run rings around us in negotiations.

The EU that has stuck firmly together, despite all forecasts to the contrary, and strangely believes more in its vision of togetherness than in the fantasies of Brexiteers.

The EU that takes 44% of our exports, while we take 8%2 of theirs.

The roughly 450 million of them versus the 63 million of us.

The UK vs the EU is a negotiating position that only looks attractive to Tories of a certain class raised to see greatness in the self-destruction of The Charge Of The Light Brigade.

“C’est magnifique, mais ce n’est pas la guerre; c’est de la folie”.3

Barry Barricades

What I missed when I created Barry Blimp – the archetypal Home Counties Leave voter of not inconsiderable means and more than a few years – was his zealotry.

Because I now see a big chunk of the Leave cohort want Brexit no matter what.

In fact I rather think some would enjoy it if we had ferries piled up outside Dover and food rationing at Tesco.

Obviously I feel vindicated when I think back to the insults hurled at me when I ventured my opinion on my own blog that many Leave voters didn’t know what they’d started, or that this would drag on for years.

But that’s about as satisfying as telling the person in the seat next to you that yes, you were right that the 747’s engine sounded a bit funny as the Captain shouts “Brace, brace!” over the tannoy.

There seems no good solution to this mess now. Revolutions have started over less.

(That may sound melodramatic if you don’t know your history. I suggest you Google the origins of the French Revolution, the English Civil War, or the American War of Independence before you jab your finger in my chest.)

To be clear I’m not predicting revolution – let alone hoping for it, from any perspective – but there’s got to be a non-zero chance.

Currently we are just living through a nationalist coup, and that’s bad enough.

The irony is for many on the right, Jeremy Corbyn is a revolutionary Marxist.

Politics has abandoned the center ground. As a result, lots of people are going to be very unhappy, however this turns out.

Our politicians need to get a grip, fast.

From Monevator

Money is power – Monevator

From the archive-ator: The characteristics of an entrepreneur – Monevator


Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view you can click to read the piece without being a paid subscriber. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing if you read them a lot!4

UK economy slows as car sales fall – BBC

Property market at weakest since 2012 as Brexit takes toll, says RICS – Guardian

ECB ends €2.5tn eurozone QE stimulus programme – BBC

Luxury goods inflation running at nearly 6%, says Coutts – Guardian

Richest parts of London generate 30x cash of poorest parts of UK – ThisIsMoney

Scotland freezes threshold for higher-rate income tax – Guardian

Crowdcube investors threaten legal action after Emoov goes bust – ThisIsMoney




Check out the collapse in the price of solar powered energy – Vox

Products and services

Are real or fake Christmas trees better for the planet? – Guardian

Small energy providers keep going bust. Is switching too risky? – ThisIsMoney

Investors flock to venture capital funds [Search result]FT

Britain to force broadband providers to tell customers their best deals – Reuters

Ratesetter will pay you £100 [and me a cash bonus] if you invest £1,000 for a year – Ratesetter

Examining the risks and rewards of securities lending for funds – Morningstar

Investec’s new notice savings account allows 20% withdrawals – ThisIsMoney

Questioning the $1million retirement maths special

$1 million isn’t enough – Fat Tailed and Happy

The hardest problem in finance – The Irrelevant Investor

$1 million? Meh. [US but relevant]The Belle Curve

Comment and opinion

Stellar take on the savings-versus-investment-returns debate – Get Rich Slowly

Situational spending – Seth Godin

Index-investing critic takes aim, fires, misses – Bloomberg

Rational versus reasonable – Morgan Housel

Financial planning – Indeedably

Three investing maths mistakes to drive you nuts – The IT Investor

The current danger for stocks: Fear itself – Morningstar

Why you need a money mentor – The Cut

The reason many billionaires aren’t satisfied with their wealth – The Atlantic

The wonderful Portfolio Charts has had a makeover – Portfolio Charts

How to measure a company’s growth rate – UK Value Investor

The best investing white papers of 2018 [For nerds/pros]Savvy Investor

Crypto corner (December 2017 nostalgic edition)

Four days trapped at sea with crypto’s nouveau richeBreaker Mag

Yes Bitcoin was a bubble. And it popped… – Bloomberg

…but is it time for believers to buy back into Ethereum? – AVC

Prices are down more than the ‘fundamentals’ [My quotes]Chris Burniske


The EU rebuffs Theresa May on Brexit — six takeaways [Search result]FT

Lord Heseltine nails it on Brexit [Video] – via Facebook

“This was the second failed attempt to unseat May in three weeks, for a bunch of guys who’d be picked last for paintball and are led by rejected Paddington villain Jacob Rees-Mogg.”Guardian

EU leaders scrap plans to help Theresa May pass deal after disastrous meeting in Brussels – Independent

Sir Ivan Rogers on Brexit [Full speech] – University of Liverpool

How Ireland outwitted Britain on Brexit – Bloomberg

Don’t know why people see a nasty, racist fringe to the Leave vote… – via Twitter

Kindle book bargains

The Barcelona Way: How to Create a High-performance Culture by Damian Hughes – £1.09 on Kindle

The 100-Year Life: Living and Working in an Age of Longevity by Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott – £2.99 on Kindle

James Acaster’s Classic Scrapes by James Acaster – £0.99 on Kindle

Off our beat

Habits are the compound interest of self-improvement – Farnham Street

Population mountains [Striking 3D maps of global populations]The Pudding

KFC debuts fried chicken-scented fire logs ahead of Christmas – Fox News

We need academic conferences about robots, love, and sex – Slate

And finally…

“For half a century the competition to produce the fastest stock price-printing machine was almost as frantic as the pursuit of the stocks and the shares. Indeed for many, the two were inseparable.”
– Selwyn Parker, The Great Crash: How the Stock Market Crash of 1929 Plunged the World into Depression

Like these links? Subscribe to get them every Friday!

  1. Yes, a couple of things might be made better for a tiny subset of the population. But as we’ve discussed before, almost every serious economist believes those benefits would be grossly outweighed by the economic negatives. They’d be far better addressed directly via redistribution or government investment. []
  2. Or 18%, in a certain light. []
  3. “It’s magnificent, but it’s not war; it’s madness” – General Pierre Bosquet. []
  4. Note some articles can only be accessed through the search results if you’re using PC/desktop view (from mobile/tablet view they bring up the firewall/subscription page). To circumvent, switch your mobile browser to use the desktop view. On Chrome for Android: press the menu button followed by “Request Desktop Site”. []

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{ 131 comments… add one }
  • 101 AAJ December 17, 2018, 12:53 pm

    Leave or remain, that is the question. Not Brexit of course, but what to do with my investments. I think that I’ve spent far too much time discussing Brexit – and I can’t change this and far too little time thinking about what to invest in – I can change this!

    Surely, (active) investors should have be discussing their flight to safe assets (US, Gold) over the past 6 months. Ditching volatile assets (UK and Euro small companies) and lowering exposure to assets their expect Brexit to harm (UK, Europe).

    After all, if people think Brexit is or will be a disaster, what are you going to do about it financially?

  • 102 ermine December 17, 2018, 1:57 pm

    After all, if people think Brexit is or will be a disaster, what are you going to do about it financially?

    You’re way too late to the party if what you are going to do about it mainly lies in the future. I bought gold and shifted to foreign assets before the vote, because I expected it to go the other way and one should always buy a bit of what you don’t expect to happen. I bought some more occasionally in the intervening time. Oddly enough I am to some extent betting on it not being as much of a disaster as I expect it to be, and yes, in my heart of darkness I really hope it won’t happen too. That damned referendum was advisory, not tablets of stone brought back from God. I am more than happy for all my activity since 2016 to turn out to be a misallocation of capital if Brexit doesn’t happen

    So I buy some of those foreign assets in an index fund hedged to the GBP. At the moment the assets are going down about at the same rate as the GBP, which is nice (as a buyer). If it is as bad as I expect then I will have made a bad call as the GBP goes titsup and cable is 0.5USD=GBP.

    I hold vastly too much cash, true, in crappy GBP, though I’d also be prepared to sell some of the gold, because I expect to see a load of snarling and gnashing of teeth in the months to come and there may be buying opportunities if UK assets fall faster than the £.

    But let’s face it, the time for forestalling activity is gone, it was preferably before the sudden rush of blood to the head in 2016. Fortunately I bought most of my foreign assets before then, and I am at the end of my working life so I won’t need to buy much more with my rotten post 2016 £s. I guess if you are young and have 20 years of working life left then your wages will hopefully track Brexit induced inflation after a while and you will buy your foreign assets with more £s but your savings rate will be roughly the same, just the numbers of £s will be higher.

  • 103 rick24 December 17, 2018, 2:20 pm

    For the small number of pro-Brexit voters I have spoken to – ordinary people – the issue actually boils down to sovereignty, not economics. They don’t want ‘people’ (Brussels) telling them what to do. “We were always outvoted on everything”. They see Brexit as a way of preserving a way of life that they love. So if they were to be convinced to stay in, one would have to show that being a member of the EU does not essentially compromise sovereignty; that we weren’t always “outvoted on everything” (e.g. that we have like-minded nations within the EU but that agreeing compromises means you don’t always get everything you might like and yet is beneficial); and that our culture won’t necessarily be changed in ways we don’t like (but I can see why the nation state might be thought to be the best guarantor of the latter).
    For me, sovereignty was not such a defining issue but I can see why for others it can be.
    I’m not looking forward with relish to a 25% reduction in the value of sterling and a future of relative decline. What a car crash!
    On the small matter of demographics: people tend to become more conservative with age, so insofar as conservatism is associated with being pro-Brexit (not a given, I know: I am a pro-remain conservative (small ‘c’)), there may not be a material change in the proportions of pro-leave and pro-remain due to age.

  • 104 HariSeldon December 17, 2018, 3:47 pm

    A no deal Brexit is undesirable and will cause disruption but it’s surprising how quickly people/business adjusts.

    Southampton is nearby and deals with a lot of non EU as well as EU shipping and they manage.

    I am not making light of the issues but it’s amazing how quickly businesses can adapt.

    Having managed a company that lost a major customer (60%+ of our business) I was horrified and because of the geographic location of the business and nature of the industry, feared for the worst.

    In practice it all worked out very well, offered new services , found work outside the local area. ( Switzerland, Brazil and Eire ) clearly this is anecdotal but if I had a lot of notice , I would have presumed disaster, redundancies etc. A classic who moved my cheese moment.

    I voted Remain and I hope we take the easy route but in the event of the worst occurring I suspect it will work out. I’d be confident that long term we will rebuild our trading relationship with the EU and hopefully draw closer again

  • 105 Brod December 17, 2018, 3:54 pm

    @rick24 – I think, though, that as the oldest “conservative Brexiteers” cohort die and are replaced by the ageing of younger cohorts, the younger cohorts will not necessarily be “conservative Brexiteer”. Just “conservative”. If that makes sense. I.e. being older is not the cause of Brexit supporting, merely a correlation. If you’re one of the younger cohort and slightly more likely to be a remainer, you’ll remain a remainer when you move to the older cohort. Maybe 😉

    What are we doing to prepare for Brexit? Well, I was always globally diversified, so only had 9% UK exposure. I sold some international equities and that’s held in £s waiting for a buying opportunity as I thought at this end of the bull market I was over-exposed. I’m now 26% in UK equities, short-term Gilts and cash and 74% global. ASs I intend to live in the UK, I feel happy with that position. Of course, add in my house and small government DB pension, and it’s a lot more than that.

    Also, my wife’s a Data Scientist and I’m encouraging her to try and get a job abroad where she might be eligible for a passport for me and the kids (7 & 5). She can commute each weekend. I think there may be an almighty tech brain-drain to Amsterdam, Barcelona, Lisbon, Frankfurt, etc.. I quite fancy Lisbon myself.

  • 106 Kraggash December 17, 2018, 5:20 pm


    “Southampton is nearby and deals with a lot of non EU as well as EU shipping and they manage”

    Hey, its near me too!
    But, of course, non-EU trade is still done under the EU trade agreements that are in place. So a short term ‘disruption’, and you can imagine the type of deals we would get to replace them, being in a bit of a desperate situation, and not having the clout of the EU. I am sure resource-rich countries such as Canada and Australia would be happy to sell us natural resources. I struggle to see what they would buy in return…

  • 107 sir steve December 17, 2018, 10:02 pm

    Like some others I suspect that we are heading for another referendum. But the issue of which question/which options should be on the ballot paper is a tricky one. Having 3 (or more) options would be unlikely to give a clear cut result – even we went down the alternative preference route. Like @ Learner, I think we should consider a 2-stage referendum with a binary choice at each stage. The first stage question could be ‘should we accept the Theresa May/EU negotiated deal – yes or no?’. If yes wins, that’s it – we leave under the negotiated deal. If the electorate rejects it, we move onto the second stage, when the binary choice could be between remain and leave with no deal. This would have a strong democratic justification (‘you said you wanted us to leave the EU; this is the best deal we have been able to negotiate on your behalf; do you want to leave on these terms?) and give a clear outcome. It wouldn’t of course guarantee that we’d get a ‘sensible’ result (although what is judged ‘sensible’ will depend on your perspective on the whole Brexit issue). But it would also force the electorate to confront the serious and hard choices that our politicians have thus far been unable to make – and to do so at a time when we all know a hell of a lot more about what’s involved in leaving the EU than we knew in 2016. Disclosure: I voted Remain in 2016 and would probably vote No and Remain in a 2-stage referendum.

  • 108 The Borderer December 17, 2018, 11:46 pm

    My biggest fear is a Corbyn government. All other worries regarding ‘hard;, ‘soft’, er … any kind of Brexit pale into insignificance.

    Would be good to see a blog on how best to deal with that.

  • 109 The Borderer December 18, 2018, 12:08 am

    @Ermine (102)

    I’m afraid I can’t see the rationale for hedging you’re investments back to a currency that is falling and will continue to fall post insanity.

    It was falling anyway.


  • 110 ermine December 18, 2018, 12:36 am

    @The Borderer I have benefited in GBP nominal terms from Brexit, because fortuitously most of my investments were made before 2016. In four years at most my investing career will come to an end as a net buyer, because I am at the end of my working life.

    I will be more than happy if Brexit is cancelled. I will give up some of those gains with the strengthening pound by I will live in a country that dodged self-immolation by the skin of its teeth.

    The dilemma was what to do with contributions post 2016. Again fortuitously these are not a large part of my investments.

    If Brexit is cancelled, the strengthening pound will make post 2016 investments appreciate. If it isn’t, those will be stuffed, as you say. But I get to keep the nominal uplift in my main pre 2016 investments. Small consolation, ebcause though the numbers are bigger the inflation in imported goods means my foreign assets are the same value in real terms. But better than my GBP assets including pension, which will fall.

    Our host described it better in his post than I have managed. My situation is not to be generalised, I am Barry Blimp in age and accumulation profile though not outlook 😉 By doing this I am leaning slightly against the risk of Brexit getting cancelled causing me to give back all the Brexit nominal boost. I don’t really expect that to happen, but you know, three months is a long time in politics. Sometimes you have to place a stake on what you don’t expect to happen in the interests of diversification. I didn’t need this Brexit-induced volatility and I want to hedge some of the currency part while still holding productive assets, rather than holding more gold or foreign currency.

  • 111 hosimpson December 18, 2018, 5:31 pm

    The army – the fucking army – is now on standby in preparation for a no deal brexit. I don’t know who can still say at this point that brexit was a good idea, y’know, sunny uplands and all that shit, but (sadly) I’m sure these people exist.

  • 112 Brod December 18, 2018, 6:06 pm

    @hosimpson – Tories playing macho again, eh? Bet Jean-Claude’s scared now!

  • 113 Factor December 18, 2018, 7:48 pm

    Two separate acquaintances, who each joyfully said that they had voted Leave at the time of the referendum, have individually suffered a memory “lapse” and now claim to have voted Remain. Hmmm!

  • 114 hosimpson December 18, 2018, 8:20 pm

    Sounds like my dickwad boss, who was skipping (yes, he was, no, I’m not exaggerating) and doing fistpumps – actual honest to god fucking fistpumps (not a good look on a short balding guy in mid 50s, imho) the day after the referendum, when he came in late to work becaus (he said) he had to go to the polling station in the morning… So he went from that to now claiming – quote unquote – “I didn’t even vote in the referendum!”.
    I fear lying may run deeper in Brexit than Boris’s stupid bus.

  • 115 The Weasel December 18, 2018, 8:22 pm

    @hosimpson Surely that’s just the reptilian euphilic remoaner elite ramping up project fear?

    @Factor must be the same virus that Moggy just caught. Sky quotes him saying he now “fully supports” the PM, I wonder what the Barrys of the UK make of that..

  • 116 mike December 18, 2018, 8:54 pm

    On the Army being on standby – after 4 years of increasingly hysterical warnings of plagues of locusts, nuclear apocalypse and worse to be caused by Brexit, I’m quite glad the army are on standby to maintain law and order when people start panic buying canned goods…

    It’s like the Y2K bug all over again, but this time rather than calm soothing words that everything is going to be ok, we’ve had years of every member of the establishment screaming “WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE!”…

  • 117 Charles Hayton December 18, 2018, 9:21 pm

    “It’s like the Y2K bug all over again,”

    Not entirely sure what you’re implying…

    …but to remedy Y2K “bugs” billions and billions and billions and billions of dollars were spent over the best part of a decade fixing millions and millions and millions and millions lines of code and design flaws in software systems around the globe, testing those systems, deploying them and mitigating the flaws that slipped through the net.

    That’s why the IT world didn’t collapse in early Jan 2000.

    Is that what you meant?

  • 118 The Investor December 18, 2018, 9:24 pm

    This “establishment” label is pretty ridiculous. Come on guys, you’ve got more credible slurs to throw around than that.

    Every Leaver I’ve met in London (as opposed to friends/friends of family in provinces) has been a well-off 40-60 year old white British guy who works in financial services. The financial bloggers who use it on Twitter are similar. I’m not going to claim every reader here who uses the term is the same — obviously I don’t know — but I highly doubt we’ve got members of crypto-anarchist syndicates and communists living in wigwams reading and commenting on Monevator.

    The whole Leave project is the cherished dream of the most Conservative Conservatives!

    True, you/they managed to persuade a lot of non-establishment / disenfranchised / underclass / less educated / whatever term will/won’t offend you the most to win the Referendum. But on anything except the most narrow view and Brexit, the same people this ilk of Leavers call The Establishment are the ones who have been working to support a status quo that has served them fine for decades.

    I’m not saying Remainers are anti-establishment, either, obviously. Clearly not, and clearly the whole country is split all over the place.

    As for the army, I sort of agree with @Mike — I’d have them on alert, too — because why not? Strange things can happen in febrile times (remember the riots a few years ago, that came from nowhere?) and if you’ve got an army you may as well have it on alert. Ridiculous that we’re approaching that point, but there we are.

    As for years of screaming “we’re all going to die!”, well firstly literally nobody has said that and secondly everyone is throwing around more extreme hot takes. It’s like every vocal Leaver is suddenly an expert on constitutions and politics (despite not having apparently grasped how the democratic EU works, in most cases).

    In reality, the world would of course not end if we had a second Referendum. Countries that do Referendums a lot do it all the time, as this BBC article recaps:


  • 119 The Investor December 18, 2018, 9:35 pm

    p.s. I think I’ve botched my retort to “we’re all going to die” given the hyperbole in my subsequent sentences, haven’t I? 😉 But anyway I am on alert about that line of thinking, because my view is the reality of Brexit will be a slow sad seep not a bang, and maybe not even an immediate whimper. Just like the benefits of being in the EU have apparently been too invisible to most over the past 30 years, also.

  • 120 mike December 18, 2018, 9:42 pm

    I was using Y2K as an example of how the powers that be persuaded people that, despite us not knowing where all the bugs were hiding, everything was going to be alright. That prevented panic buying, loss of control, and breakdown in society. Whereas now every opportunity is used to hype up the risks of “crashing out” “cliff edge” “national disaster”, etc as of 11pm on 29th March.

    It will end badly if the rhetoric doesn’t change, whatever the preparations – and I hope there are no remain voters who want to see chaos to say “I told you so”.

    And yes, Y2K required preparation, I was there and working through it. Not every bug was caught, but there also wasn’t an apocalypse either.

    That there has been inadequate preparation for Brexit in all its possible forms is shameful, but, given who is in charge…

  • 121 xxd09 December 19, 2018, 10:34 am

    I was always waiting for the Correction that was due because of our over borrowing and vast debts
    Seems to be happening now
    Each correction has its own format/symptoms-this one seems to be political in form with Scottish Referendum,Brexit,Trump and our continental chums in Italy and France all signs of stress.
    The Bankers have told the Politcians there is no more money-the purse strings are tightening and people don’t like it
    I think we will all get poorer,the balance sheets will be restored to more manageable levels
    and life will resume
    Meanwhile tin hats everyone and hold on for the ride!

  • 122 marked December 19, 2018, 10:36 pm

    I can’t believe this Houses of Parliament pantomime.

    A £1.7 Trn economy is about to be wounded in 100 days but the MP’s are playing games about the difference between “Stupid Woman” and “Stupid People”. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a Corbyn fan (and I do believe he said people – I hate the fact I actually agree with him) , but can we put all effort into making the least disruption possible for the jobs of people in the United Kingdom opposed to behaving WORSE than kids.

  • 123 xxd09 December 20, 2018, 12:31 am

    One has the feeling that our leaders are a little out of their depth
    No place to run-the buck has stopped with them
    Pass the parcel games are over and they have to rise to the challenge or get off the pot!
    Asking the people what to do via referendum games are over
    They need to earn their pay and positions by coming up with the goods
    and quick
    Are they fit for purpose- not so far but they are the best we’ve got-God help us
    Perhaps we need hope and pray
    They remind me at the moment of rabbits caught in the headlights
    Let’s hope they get their act together soon

  • 124 Keith December 20, 2018, 5:59 pm

    Some useful discussion over here about the consequences of no deal:

  • 125 The Rhino December 21, 2018, 11:46 am

    Amidst all the brouhaha of brexit, are we witnessing the start of a stock market crash? The 2%/day falls for the Dow are really starting to rack up and the link between the falling pound and the rising FTSE seems to have been severed

  • 126 Adrian Judd December 21, 2018, 12:57 pm

    @The Rhino Cheap money is unwinding, something has to give. I’m not smart enough to know what exactly will happen and I think even some highly paid chaps in the city will take their eye off the ball. US interest rate rises, US/China trade war, Brexit & end of QE for Eurozone = ????

    What I’d like is for someone to figure it out and send me a plan for 2019. Brexit forecasts look worse each week. There must be an investment upside. I’ve only bough gold for the past 6 months. But at some point I want to switch to UK as it looks cheaper each day.

    I may be upset by Brexit, but I want to be a happy investor in 2019 🙂

  • 127 The Investor December 21, 2018, 1:38 pm

    Amidst all the brouhaha of brexit, are we witnessing the start of a stock market crash?

    The start?! I hope you’re a passive investor ‘ignore the noise’ purist @Rhino. 🙂

    The US Nasdaq yesterday flirted with official bear market status, some emerging markets are already there, the FTSE 100 is down 15% since May and is now back to late 1990s levels, and it’s the first year possibly ever where no major asset class delivered a positive return (I can’t remember the specifics of the graph I saw, but I think including cash when you look to real returns.)

  • 128 The Rhino December 21, 2018, 2:00 pm

    You were probably looking at this – https://pensionpartners.com/no-place-to-hide/

    Problem for me is I need to buy a bigger house in 2019 – I just hope houses fall at least as much as everything else (on aggregate) or I’m going to have anchoring issues to contend with.

  • 129 xxd09 December 21, 2018, 6:30 pm

    Government deficit at the lowest its been for 15 years
    Are we getting there?

  • 130 The Investor December 21, 2018, 8:37 pm

    Problem for me is I need to buy a bigger house in 2019 – I just hope houses fall at least as much as everything else (on aggregate) or I’m going to have anchoring issues to contend with.

    This is partly why I finally bought my flat, as I’ve partly written up in my 2,500 word draft of Why I Bought My Flat which I can’t seem to finish to publish. 🙁 Basically for a long time only residential property (and cash) seemed expensive but by late 2017 pretty much everything seemed expensive (certainly for the risks) so I thought why not have various ways to get killed by corrections, rather than just shares, and have a comfy place to do it in. 😉

  • 131 Tony January 3, 2019, 4:21 pm

    Just belatedly read this. Congratulations on a brilliantly incisive article. So good I’ve bookmarked it!

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