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Weekend reading: Je ne regrette rien

Investing reads

Thoughts on the week, then some good links.

I want to thank you for reading Monevator. It must be hard at times. Over 1,000 people now subscribe to hear me say the UK economy is growing nicely and that UK shares are good value, while virtually everyone else talks about a double-dip recession and a new bear market.

The truth is neither they nor me can be sure – nobody can be – but at least I’m honest about it.

With the FTSE 100 closing the week at 5,045 and the Dow at 10,142, it’s been a bad year for quick gains. The leading UK shares are down nearly 7%; that’s even worse than the US market, party because of the dire performance of BP.

Shares in the stricken oil giant are barely floating above the £3 level. Its price is down 25% from when I wrote that I thought BP shares were good value.

Was I wrong? Yes, and no.

Yes – In retrospect, the situation was still in play. The political fury was close to peaking, but the well was still leaking oil and estimates of the amount gushing out were rising fast. It would have been safer to wait.

No – I was clear that there were plenty of negatives. I also stressed it can often take a very long time (think years) for crisis situations to resolve themselves. Buying a plunging share is a calculated gamble. Buying one and expecting its price to rise tomorrow is wishful thinking.

Most analysts still have ‘buy’ ratings on BP for the same reason I liked the shares at £4.35. The potential reward seem to outweigh the risks. At £3, that case is stronger, although the final costs have risen as more oil has surged into the gulf and the mishaps have continued.

I’ll probably still not buy, having calculated my exposure through passive funds and trusts is 2-3% already, but I can see why someone else would.

It’s the stupid economy stupid

As for the economy and the wider market, no excuses are necessary. I simply tell it as I see it.

This blog would be more popular if I wrote about buying gold three times a week and screamed the sky is falling. That’s what does well on the web. But the whole point of Monevator is it’s a place for my thoughts on investing, with information on everything from the wisdom of tracker funds to the historical returns from equities, via Star Wars.

The forward-looking tea leaf stuff is a sideshow, but it’s honestly delivered.

With the FTSE 100 on 14x historical earnings over ten years and a forward P/E of 9, I still think shares are a bargain compared to nearly every other asset classes. And that’s partly because I think the economy will continue to grow, despite all the doom and gloom.

But shares are volatile, and reading the economic runes is very much a ‘for what it’s worth’ activity. The small print is the big picture when investing.

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George Osborne

Like anyone over 30, I’ve pretty much given up on politicians doing what they say they will. The emergency budget from George Osborne is therefore a surprise.

Here is the bold plan we were promised to do the unpopular to eliminate most of the deficit by 2015.

Here are the big cuts in public profligacy, with 77% of the savings to come from spending cuts rather than higher taxes.

And the pain has been fairly broadly spread, too. The poor are seeing benefits curtailed, the middle classes will pay more tax, and the Queen faces a frozen civil list.

True, the poorest will be hit proportionally as hard as the richest. But this is not a reflection of the Conservative party’s secret inner Himler, as Labour will suggest over the next few days. Rather, it’s a line in the sand against redistribution – an attempt to make work pay.

If solving the problems of the underclass was as simple as throwing money at it, I’d be all for it. But it’s not – in fact, one lesson of the past few years is that state money can make things worse. Nightmarish scenarios where people are kept on benefits by effective marginal tax rates of over 100% if they take a job and lose tax credits are an insanity.

A welfare safety net is meant to catch you when you fall, not keep you trapped when you try to climb higher.

The sensible Lib Dem policy that the Conservatives have adopted of aspiring to remove income tax on those earning up to £10,000 is a step towards making work pay, too. But you have to be in work to gain from it.

Will the  spending cuts hurt growth? I believe that the UK will recover sufficiently to shrug off the impact, particularly as interest rates will now stay lower for longer. Gilt yields should remain restrained, and inflation subdued as workers jettisoned from the public sector keep wages lower in the private sector

As an advocate of free markets, I also happen to believe the private sector will allocate these incoming workers more efficiently than the Government did, and so in time boost UK productivity.

There are huge execution risks, of course. Taking 25% out of Government spending must be done with surgical precision if the patient is to leave the sick bay in better shape than he came in.

What about investors?

Turning from the fate of the UK economy to the narrower pursuit of our own attempts to get filthy rich gain financial freedom, this wasn’t a bad budget for us investors.

True, that relief comes from the ‘nil-nil – could have been worse’ school of thought that’s currently holding sway in the England football camp.

We were warned we might face 40% capital gains tax, and see the annual allowance slashed to just £2,000. As it is the CGT rate remains 18% for lower-rate payers, while higher earners will pay 28%. Best of all, the £10,100 annual CGT allowance remains in place, albeit frozen.

The net result is that by religiously using ISAs and intelligently realising our gains, most Monevator readers will be able to avoid capital gains tax on their share portfolios.

Property investors are a different kettle of kippers. Most disposals of older investment properties will be hit by a capital gain, and it’s likely to be sufficient to move them into the 28% bracket for a year, even if they’re usually lower-rate payers.

But I can’t wring my hands at this. It’s unfortunate that the rules have changed, but we face a property shortage in this country and prices are too high. And retaining 72% of your gains from the biggest property bubble the UK has ever seen is not a bad deal. Property owners have also enjoyed a windfall gain from extraordinarily low interest rates, so it’s swings and roundabouts.

Finally, there’s a hidden treat for investors – and start-up entrepreneuers – in the shape of lower corporation taxes.

Small businesses will see corporation tax fall back to 20% from 21%, which is handy if you’re a freelancer like me.

General corporation is to drop by a penny a year for four years, from 28% to 24%. This article from The Motley Fool reasonably suggests that should mean more profitable UK companies and maybe even higher dividends for investors.

Emergency budget or suicide note?

Back in October I wrote that David Cameron’s Curse was to save the UK and be hated for it. Courtesy of his best chum George Osborne, the saving – and the hating – has begun.

Unfortunately, people tend to remember the good times, and discount what never happened. Gordon Brown broke his own Golden Rule over the cycle to the tune of £485 billion, yet silly Labour propaganda has it that we’re in this mess from bailing out the banks.

We’ll almost certainly eventually make a vast profit on our stakes in the banks, and I think we’ll be better off in the long run from this budget, too.

So well done for now, George. You’d better take my praise for this emergency budget, because in a year’s time there’ll be little enough from elsewhere.

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Weekend reading: England’s dreaming

Weekend reading

My Saturday musings, followed by the week’s links.

Anyone who doubts the power of mental belief only needed to witness England’s dire performance against Algeria in the World Cup last night to have their preconceptions tested.

In Rooney, Lampard, Gerrard, and Cole, England boasts players the equal of any in the world. The rest of the squad is rich in talent, too, even after all the injuries.

Yet England still doesn’t have a team.

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Researching moving abroad

Moving abroad – grass is always greener

There’s a good reason why Australians, Americans, New Zealanders and Canadians speak English. It’s not the winters in the UK that gets you dreaming about moving abroad – it’s the muffled summers, the endless cloud and the grey.

An Italian friend calls Britain ‘The Rock’. From a continental perspective, the UK is a lump of offshore stone, blasted by wind and waves and with all the weather you’d expect from that.

But moving abroad isn’t just about sun seeking. The world is smaller, interconnected, and globalised – yet with very different costs of living in its different corners. If you can earn (or a retire on) a UK income yet reside in a far-flung land, your money can go much further.

Who should consider moving abroad?

Moving abroad is an especially tempting idea for young people in the UK. Priced out of the UK property market and Internet-savvy, smart twenty-somethings who missed their chance with London property could instead try their luck in Lisbon, Bucharest, or Buenos Aires.

With final salary pension schemes closed to them, moving abroad to avoid taxes and invest hard in faster-growing markets has to be worth considering.

Older people with a decent freedom fund or a UK-based income stream are also moving abroad, too. Retiring Brits have been fleeing to Spain for two decades, but you see more adventurous expats in the US, where boatloads of baby boomers are taking their dollars and their love of good service to Central America and South East Asia.

Perhaps the hardest time of life to move abroad is middle-aged with kids. I’m not sure the upheaval is generally healthy for either generation.

Moving abroad is a mental trip

Moving abroad appeals to me financially, but also in terms of the sheer experience of it.

Yet like so many I’ve been rather timid, and found excuses to put it off – that I’m the wrong age, or that I’ll move when I don’t need to work, or that I can’t move due to my father’s health.

The latter is partly true, but as I currently earn most of my money as a freelance and have recently become single and un-tethered again, I’m feeling it may be now-(ish) or never. Otherwise I’m likely to stumble into either a job or another lovely lady, and the window will pass.

Clearly, moving abroad is as much about your mentality as visas or new vistas.

Some useful sites on overseas living

As is obvious, I’m no expert on moving abroad and there’s a bewildering amount to research. It’s one thing to go on a gap year, but another to look to live as a citizen in a new country.

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