What caught my eye this week.
Britain has a problem with its workers. No, I’m not only thinking about the ones you can’t find to fix your boiler. Or the increasing number missing in action because they’re away striking for higher pay. Or even necessarily those a few of you wanted to send back to Eastern Europe for doing too good a job.
I mean the would-be workers who aren’t workers anymore.
Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, noted this week that there are 270,000 people fewer in employment than before the pandemic struck in early 2020.
The economy meanwhile is slightly larger, with a 1.2% increase in GDP.
As many people who run businesses will know, the UK’s problem right now is not a lack of job vacancies but a lack of people to fill them.
Worse, that 270,000 figure doesn’t capture the full extent of workers ‘lost’ to the jobs market.
“To work that out we need to estimate the number of people who did not enter the labour market, or decided to leave it, because of the pandemic,” says Stewart.
Since we can’t ask them all about their rationale, Stewart does some guesstimates:
It seems likely that the sharp rise, of over 250,000, in the number of people of working age classified as suffering from long- or short-term sickness since late 2019, is largely pandemic related. This seems plausible given that ONS data show an estimated 2m people suffering from self-reported long COVID at the beginning of June, of whom over 400,000 said it had limited their ability to undertake day-to-day activities “a lot”.
The pandemic also seems likely to be a major factor in the decision by more than 50,000 people of working age to retire, a change that goes against the recent trend of later retirement. […]
Student numbers have also surged, with uncertainty and dire predictions of job losses encouraging more young people to stay on in full-time education. Again, the data are unclear, but we estimate that roughly 100,000 people may be in education today for such reasons.
Finally, there is the effect of the pandemic, and of Brexit, on people coming to work in the UK and on foreign workers who were already here. The data are incomplete, but HMRC reports that between June 2019 and June 2021 the number of EU nationals on UK payrolls fell by just over 170,000. […] Some workers were likely always planning to return home however, and new immigration rules have prevented a new generation of EU citizens from moving to the UK.
Summing the increase in the number of people who are sick or retired, additional growth in student numbers and falling numbers of EU workers we get to 570,000 people.
So we have more than half-a-million fewer workers doing productive work, drawing a salary, and paying taxes. Many of whom would probably still be in work, if not for the pandemic one way or another.
That is is pretty staggering – even for someone like me who was wary of the frozen in carbonite theory that turning the economy off and on for lockdowns would not have vast economic consequences. (Which is not to say we shouldn’t have done it anyway, especially in early 2020).
Indeed those consequences have actually shown up in high inflation and lower output – as well as far higher public debt, of course – rather than directly causing joblessness.
So it seems it’s the high toll of Covid on health that’s the problem?
Well maybe. But maybe not exactly.
United in suffering
Another interesting analysis of the UK’s worker shortage was conducted this week by the always-excellent data miner John Burn-Murdoch for the Financial Times [Search result].
Burn-Murdoch sees roughly the same half a million workers missing when he surveys the UK. But he has even less time for cozy explanations such as people reassessing their lives and optionally retiring early.
Rather, Burn-Murdoch blames chronic illness:
Of the roughly half a million Britons aged 15-64 missing from the workforce, two in three cite long-term illness as their reason for not holding or seeking a job.
It would be easy to point the finger of blame at Britain’s handling of the virus, but the data suggest otherwise.
And as fans of his work would expect, Burn-Murdoch has a pretty convincing graphic to back up his case.
One of these recoveries is not like the others
Source: FT
Staggering, isn’t it? Just eyeballing the chart, only the US and arguably Turkey are remotely similar. And both of those have now got onto a better trajectory.
Of course you could offer other theories besides chronic illness.
All three of these countries entered the pandemic led by populist leaders who made decisions accordingly. Perhaps that skewed the eventual outcome?
The US and the UK both offered generous fiscal relief for workers, too. A right-leaning view might be that safety-cushioned workers haven’t felt the need to hurry back into employment.
However plenty of the other countries offered support packages.
For his part, Burn-Murdoch sounds almost apocalyptic:
With direct impacts of Covid ruled out, the most plausible remaining explanation is grim: we may be witnessing the collapse of the NHS, as hundreds of thousands of patients, unable to access timely care, see their condition worsen to the point of being unable to work.
The 332,000 people who have been waiting more than a year for hospital treatment in Britain is a close numerical match for the 309,000 now missing from the labour force due to long-term sickness.
This is the Financial Times he’s writing for remember, not The Guardian.
Again, one flagged up the long-term health consequences of making it harder for people to access care during Covid at your peril. Trust me, I got the heated reader responses to prove it.
That said I’m sympathetic to the view that it was the virus – not the lockdowns – that was to blame for much or even most of this.
For example, why should doctors and nurses have taken even more risks from a novel virus, particularly pre-vaccination? People avoiding GPs to avoid catching Covid might have been making their own rational decisions, too.
But I do feel there wasn’t enough mainstream airtime given to setting the clock on this time-bomb. Which in turn helped to push it to the lunatic fringe as the debate became polarized by late-2020.
Readers won’t be surprised to hear I also finger Brexit.
With open borders with the EU, the NHS could be rapidly recruiting to cover its strained workforce and treat more patients (if sufficiently funded, obviously).
As things stand it’s scrabbling in a hamstrung economy with the rest of them.
Jobsworths
As the owner of a blog about financial independence, I lapped up stories about The Great Resignation and people swapping joyless jobs for early retirement.
But this seems to have only happened at the margin.
Rather, a lot of more people seem to be too sick for employment. Which is a human tragedy.
Finally, let’s be wary with the ‘kids don’t want to work these days’ popular with Barry Blimps.
Besides the fact that it might be hard to blame them given the economic odds stacked against them (high house prices and rents, inflation, student debts) it’s a trope old as the hills:
A Brief History of Nobody Wants to Work Anymore
🧵
— Paul Fairie (@paulisci) July 19, 2022
Where do you think all our workers went? Let us know in the comments.
And have a great weekend!
From Monevator
Best multi-asset funds – Monevator
Higher interest rates haven’t (yet) derailed my mortgage strategy – Monevator
From the archive-ator: what I learned about investing from a cult card game – Monevator
News
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UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9.4%; could be 12% “by October” – Guardian
Britain faces a summer of strikes as inflation and falling real wages bite – CNBC
London boroughs where houses ‘earn’ as much as their owners… – Evening Standard
…versus London’s desperate rental market crisis – Evening Standard
GSK spins off £30bn Haleon in biggest European listing for a decade – CNBC
Ukraine and Russia sign deal to restart grain exports – Guardian
Are long bonds still only for fools? [US but relevant] – Morningstar
Products and services
NS&I increases rates on savings products: how do they compare? – Which
Open an account with InvestEngine via our affiliate link and get £25 when you invest at least £100 (new customers only, T&Cs apply) – InvestEngine
Green upgrades could cut UK energy bills by £1,800 – Guardian
Single-stock [US] ETFs enable you to leverage or short the likes of Tesla [But…] – ETF.com
Open a SIPP with Interactive Investor and pay no SIPP fee for six months. Terms apply – Interactive Investor
Startup Atlantic Money offers money transfers up to £1m for a £3 flat fee – ThisIsMoney
Glamorous getaways to rent, in pictures – Guardian
Comment and opinion
You’ll probably never run out of money – Mr Money Mustache
There will always be sorcerers – Of Dollars and Data
Why your 60/40 portfolio isn’t working in 2022 – Morningstar
Nine key questions and answers for investors – Humble Dollar
Gold shines as a haven in 2022 – Morningstar
The humblest thing an investor can do is buy index funds [Podcast] – Morningstar
Why more money won’t lead to financial independence – Darius Foroux
Metrics – Indeedably
Penniless at last: the returns from coin collecting – Humble Dollar
Ease, comfort, and time – Fortunes & Frictions
Risks and rewards of the FIRE movement – ThisIsMoney
Crypt o’ crypto
Elon Musk’s Tesla sells most of its Bitcoin holdings – BBC
Naughty corner: Active antics
Reflections on the investing process: QA with Michael Mauboussin – The Manual
Generation moonshot: why young investors aren’t giving up on risk [Search result] – FT
Berkshire Hathaway: the incomparable compounder [Podcast] – Business Breakdowns
Peter Spiller: Look at the 1960s, not the 1970s, for economic lessons [Search result] – FT
Focus on finding good businesses, not cheap stocks – Rational Walk
US inflation mini-special
The last time US inflation was this high – A Wealth of Common Sense
Should the Fed continue to raise rates? – The Bonddad Blog
Inflation problems persist, not least thanks to resilient consumers – Tker
Kindle book bargains
Thinking Better: The Art of the Shortcut by Marcus du Sautoy – £0.99 on Kindle
Banking On It: How I Disrupted an Industry by Anne Boden – £0.99 on Kindle
Amazon Unbound: Jeff Bezos and the Invention of a Global Empire by Brad Stone – £0.99 on Kindle
Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It by Scott Kupor – £0.99 on Kindle
Environmental factors
Fish poop might help corals overcome bleaching – Hakai Magazine
The search for the geological signal that will define our destructive era – Orion
Larry Swedroe: what does a change in ESG rating tell us about returns? – TEBI
The infamous 1970s report that predicted civilization’s collapse – Wired
Kylie Jenner apparently takes her private jet for three-minute flights – Mic
Brexit ceaselessly stupid mini-special
Brexit after Boris Johnson – Prospect
Brexit made Dover gridlock inevitable – Independent
Off our beat
The digital nomad visas luring workers overseas – BBC
Haves and have-yachts – The New Yorker
Why you should quit your job after 10 years – Bloomberg via Pocket
Cut the meetings, make more friends [Search result] – FT
Machine-learning identifies new molecules for chemical weapons… – via Twitter
…and I’m shocked, shocked, to see robot dogs mounted with guns – via Twitter
Why European swimmers took so long to learn the front crawl – Slate
And finally…
“To build wealth it didn’t matter when you bought US stocks, just that you bought them and kept buying them. It didn’t matter if valuations were high or low. It didn’t matter if you were in a bull market or a bear market. All that mattered was that you kept buying.”
– Nick Maggiulli, Just Keep Buying
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I know of quite a few people who were hanging on for a few more years untill retiring. Covid came along and changed their mind. Better to have some fun time rather than a bit richer and dead.
Sadly like so many, I have a personal anecdotal connection to this – my sister is one of them. Otherwise a previously healthy 33 year old woman currently long term signed off work (now 5 months) with long Covid symptoms and suspected POTS and still waiting a formal diagnosis. Lost in the sea of NHS appointments, waiting times and being passed around from department to department with no answers. She wants to work, but physically can’t, even desk work is too much for her. Her employer is being fairly unhelpful (wants her to come in and won’t offer any real wfh or flexibility, when she physically can’t make it down the street) She’s now stressed even further as her sick pay has expired and shes now on statutory sick leave, counting the days awaiting her next confirmed appointment with a cardiology specialist in, erm, October. The mental anguish on top of this for her is terrible to see, let alone the figures of hundreds of thousands of similar situations across the country. Other than offering support both in person and potentially financially, if needed, it’s really hard to watch.
Thanks again for the update and information, an informative read, as usual. Have a nice weekend all.
From my vantage point as an old retiree with children and grandchildren at the coalface I could see various scenarios happening
People seemed to be at full stretch in public services (where my kids work)-like a taut string!
People in business should arguably always be full on!
Back to public services -administrative overload seemed to be a major cause especially as it was mostly useless to the frontline workers (where my kids are) and worse was obviously a job preservation exercise for 9-5 administrators
Covid came as an immediate relief but old ways soon returned
A taste of “freedom via lockdown “however was enough to make many people reconsider their work/life balance
If they have enough income/savings they are gone to a more sustainable life which may well be less lucrative but liveable and fun
I don’t think they will be coming back any time soon
xxd09
PS the FT is a left wing financial paper-been for years
Making money and left wing thoughts may not appear to be obvious bed fellows but the FT remarkably manages to do both
Rather reminds me of the inherent contradiction of being a rich Christian !
@TI. UK Labour Force Employment Change (q/q) printed at 296k on the 19th June. That’s the highest number since Apr 2014 and well above the normal range. It’s been trending strongly higher since the start of 2022. In fact employment change has not been below the normal trend levels since 2Q21.
So, yes the labour force is smaller than pre COVID, but the first derivative (which is what always matters) is positive and, right now, very very positive. People are returning to work at the fastest rate in almost a decade. The same effect is being seen in the US. The Great Retirement was a story for late 2020/early 2021. It’s rotating into the Great Unretirement. Not really surprising when all those overly optimistic retirees see their portfolio down and the cost of living up.
This recent report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) somewhat contradicts Burn-Murdoch’s theory, see: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/16087
@xxd09 the FT is not left-wing under any metric surely, it is economically liberal rather than politically left.
Pssst… John not Robert Burn-Murdoch. 😉
Thanks for the reminder that Mr Money Moustache is always worth reading.
JDW @ 2
I’m sorry to hear that.
When your sister’s SSP ends (and she receives the SSP1 form), she can apply for new style ESA. This is not means tested, eligibility is consequent on her last 2 years NI contributions.
Another benefit to look at is PIP, again not means tested but additional money to help with illnesses and disabilities.
Both are subject to an assessment (outsourced by the DWP). More details here:
https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/benefits/sick-or-disabled-people-and-carers/pip/
https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/benefits/sick-or-disabled-people-and-carers/employment-and-support-allowance/
If your sister does apply, I would suggest seeing if her local advice charity has capacity to help with the ESA50 and PIP2 forms.
@Andy.T — Oh dear, that’s an unfortunate piece of brain misfiring. Thanks for the correction!
It’s hard to come up with a conclusive answer when we don’t bother to measure immigration and emigration at the ports. I can’t see why we wouldn’t other than wanting to bury our heads in the sand.
@Alice Holt thanks for those, much appreciated
The FT article seems to be based on self reporting, ie people saying they can’t work because of long term illness. That is not the same as saying they cannot work because of long term illness.
The UK has always had a problem with productivity. A comparison with the standard of living in Germany was the main reason I voted to join the Common Market.
The NHS is a behemoth which will swallow all the resources we throw at it. Have you ever been in a hospital and wondered at all the staff at desks, or walking around, carrying massive paper files ?
Is the NHS efficient in terms of value for money or quality of outcomes ? Try suggesting it needs a root and branch review and see how your re-election fares.
Did it ever make sense for the UK to grow vegetables which are more efficiently produced elsewhere but with the problem shrouded by exploitation of wage differentials and cheap airfares ( and the UK benefit system and NHS providing a social wage supplement).
In theory a squeeze on labour should make capital flow elsewhere, improving productivity through investment and shifting to areas where we have a comparative advantage.
But politics will get in the way just as it has over many flavours of government in addressing the shortcomings of the NHS.
And yes I think attitudes to work have changed ( this is ‘ my truth ‘ and I wouldn’t wish to deny anybody their ‘best life’). Loyalty to your employer, colleagues, company doesn’t seem to be much if a thing. Let alone loyalty to your country ( did someone say ‘ we are the English’?).
Sorry if that characterises me as Barry in your mind.
How to change this ?
Doubt anyone can but a change to proportional representation is probably a necessary first step unless a war or something happens by.
JDW must agree to disagree
The more radical left still think they are liberals which I feel I am-a child of the “60,s” albeit with a rather small “c” due to my age
The transformation of the FT over the many years amused me and I now only need to read the Guardian and Independent to cover that end of the political spectrum
xxd09
The change in IR35 assessments probably caused quite a few people working via Limited Companies to assess their situation and think…. “I’ve got enough cash to pack it all in now”. It did for me anyway 🙂
A possible factor – with house prices so high, anyone inheriting a house in the South East effectively gets Lottery win -sized lump sum : certainly enough to retire on
JDW – Sorry to hear this. Your case does make clear how untimely medical intervention is contributing significantly to people being out of work for longer. I hope the NHS challenge is recognised as the top priority problem to be solved.
@Mr Optimistic – Looking at NHS vfm in comparison to other nations, this graph of life expectancy vs expenditure/capita https://i.redd.it/yxw248cyb4d91.png suggests it is certainly possible to do worse.
I just LOVE how people who don’t work in it just think the NHS is super inefficient. It’s not – in fact there are reports that say it doesn’t have enough managers for the scale of its requirements! I agree that there are some pointless management jobs in it – diversity managers, wellbeing managers (Yawn) But ask drs, nurses etc if they want to be doing all the necessary admin stuff that makes it work rather than treat patients and I think you might guess what answer you will get. They have too much of it now without adding more. As for the whole “root and branch” thing, every government for the past 30 years has tried that and look where we are – it just pisses off all those doctors and nurses.
A long term failure to train enough healthcare workers is the main reason for the problems plus failing to retain those you have through pathetic pay rises and stupid pension rules and overwork. You can’t employ people to do all that “catching up” in 12 months when they DON’T EXIST.
As to the number of people with chronic illness – so much of it seems to be mental health related. Why do we suddenly seem to have so many young people with chronic mental illness? What is it about our economy/culture/society that is leading to that? Perhaps we should consider that we’re doing something wrong? The whole “happiness” market is a bit daft but the sheer size of it surely tells us something.
I discussed Long Covid further with my GP(daughter) after all the interest in Monevator threads
Amongst the poorer sections of society (her patients) it is not a significant problem as so many other lifestyle issues are currently overwhelming this section of the population
For the luckier/better off? sections of the population-probably Monevator bloggers- the impact of Long Covid is random ,discriminatory and therefore very disturbing
She knows of one close colleague-female GP-mid 40,s – fit 3 kids etc who got Covid before vaccinations and is now in a wheelchair and won’t work again
No other member of family affected
Some docs -vaccinated- in hospitals also getting affected by Long Covid -high viral load?
It does seem that an individual’s particular and unique genetic susceptibility is very important
More info coming out all the time
xxd09
@Sara. My wife is from a medical family and we have friends who are employed as doctors and nurses. They, and the evidence of my own eyes, are the basis of my opinions. The NHS is not the envy of the world, far from it. It suffers from being free at the point of delivery, which inevitably trends towards rationing in one way or another for example. However my point is that it is not possible to discuss the NHS apolitically or without emotion. Of course it folds into social care in a broader sense.
I reckon a number of issues have stemmed from, or been accelerated by, the change to two working adults per household. I am not saying it is a bad thing, it certainly released women from the financial trap of marriage, but it has first released a lot of workers into the workforce, and I would argue that this has favoured white collar and public service over other employment. Second it introduced the need for industrial levels of child care, and third it finished off the extended family throwing more burden on the state.
So things are much better than the 60’s ( well excluding GP services), but change is not necessarily unalloyed progress.
@Sara — Thanks for the inside view. I go back and forth on the NHS.
At the end of the day I’m a supporter of it more or less as is because (a) we already have it and broad support for it, and I’m wary of revolution (b) I think it’s effectively very targeted towards need, compared to other potential state redistribution efforts (c) there’s a lot of yuck/difficulty in medicine (things you don’t want to think about, decisions you don’t want to make) that aren’t so amenable to market forces (d) look at the chart from @xeny above, it took me a minute to even see the US!
However with that said we can all see it’s far from perfect.
I don’t doubt funding is part of the picture after 11 years of Conservative rule in the face of multiple economy challenges, but equally, I can’t recall a year when the NHS didn’t need more funding. Even in the Labour years when money was hurled at it there were calls for more. We can all see what it costs us by looking at a breakdown of where our taxes go. It is not ‘free’ for barely any Monevator readers, but rather free at the point of service — if they can get it. We all have our anecdotal stories there, too.
But focusing on efficiency, my experience is it is not very efficient at a patient level. Admittedly this major experience is now about a decade old (my post-stroke and now-passed dad).
Emergency care was, as best as I can tell, excellent, and the immense amount of care he required in the two months following as he emerged from a frankly vegetative state into someone well enough to go home and watch TV quizzes with me (erratically) was beyond reproach.
However all the follow-ups were various forms of frustrating and inefficient, from trying to book an appointment to even parking the car, to doctors who sometimes didn’t seem to have any of his records (we repeatedly had to tell cancer specialists he’d had a stroke).
Even when he was still in hospital my mother had to repeat at least once a day what was wrong with him to new nurses on duty, and sometimes intervene to get/hold back particular drugs. Again, as best I could tell this was because his condition was passed on all but word of mouth from carer to carer.
I know the NHS / government bungled that big IT overhaul a few years ago, so perhaps that’s part of the problem.
But you can see why people wonder when they encounter this sort of thing about the sheer size of the thing, and whether it’s not a problem as much as it offers economies of scale.
No axe to grind here, and as I say broadly a supporter. (And as people always add and it seems to be true, nearly all the staff were great and seemed to be making the best of it). Cheers!
@amit thanks. It is certainly no criticism of the front line NHS staff, who have unfailing been friendly and helpful where they can be and are likely equally as frustrated at the ‘system’. On the whole they do the best they can. Certainly grateful for the NHS recently for another family emergency that involved a 5 day A&E trip and long term care and cover post that.
It’s an interesting debate certainly. I am full of admiration for the NHS as an idea, especially after the shock of the cost just getting an appointment to see a doctor during a US visit a few years ago.
I would have scoffed at the thought of going private until fairly recently and generally dislike the barrier of costs to healthcare provision (ie the quality and accessibility is the same and free to all at the point of use, one I don’t mind funding as a taxpayer) but going through a completely unrelated and prehaps minor long term chronic ankle injury recently, I went private for the first time via a work healthcare plan, and whisper it – it was great. I was fortunate to be in a position to have done so (aware that many aren’t), but it certainly sped up the initial diagnosis and treatment that could have taken years otherwise.
I think ultimately its a few factors and I’m not informed enough to provide the answers (my aunt has recently retired after 40 years on NHS staff, so only really third hand information from her) but i suspect its years of austerity, lack of investment, Brexit causing issues with retention, recruitment and long term care staff leaving, either through having enough or retiring and causing a huge knowledge gap, all coming home to roost, on top of the impacts of a pandemic that an already creaking service wasn’t prepared for.
Businesses hiring low-skilled workers are surprised when they can’t find them, yet they continue to offer inflexible, often minimum wage offers. If they can’t find the workers it’s on the business. It’s not because people “don’t want to work”.
UK health spending has basically been increasing at a steady rate despite who is in government since the war.
New Labour did a big increase then held down further increases – overall affect pretty much stuck to trend.
“Austerity” was more spin than reality in the uk public sector (with the exception of local government and defence which saw sustained real terms cuts):
https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/real-spending.png
@xxdo9. Ft a left wing newspaper, that made me laugh. Norman Tebbit was saying the same 40 years ago. In the real world the FT is politically a right of center, business/ financial newspaper.
I used to be Mr Active (i.e., sports, hiking, DIY). Since catching COVID-19, I’m finding myself regularly going straight to bed for a 45 minute ‘nap’ when I get home from my commute to town. I’m absolutely shattered (I’ve been commuting for a decade so it’s not a new ‘thing’).
Diet is good, I’m not overweight, no vices and yet to hit 50. It’s like Duracell has been replaced by a Value imposter. Finally got a doctor’s appointment booked for bloods, ‘samples’ and scan. That was a mission. Find myself ever so forgetful too. Something has changed.
I’m not giving up but some days I question just how much longer I can carry on. Stubborn bastard in me won’t allow the white flag to be raised, but it’s a borderline call each time. I do wonder how many other people feel like this as several people I work with are in the same boat. Scary.
Covid flattened me for around 3 months. I could do everything I was doing before, it just felt much harder. I kept having bouts of brain fog making my white collar job near impossible to do at the same standard as before. My blue collar job was passable as I could do it more or less on auto-pilot, and I had just enough physical reserves to manage those demands.
IMO, the FT tends to be left-wing socially and mildly right-wing economically. It is certainly pro-establishment.
@ Rob – That’s very sad to hear. I know of a few others in the same boat. Relatively young, relatively fit but have had a terrible long-term reaction to the virus. Hopefully you’ll begin to climb from this low point and there’ll be break-throughs in treatment to boost you on your way.
Re: NHS debate – I’ve not experienced an overseas healthcare system, and I don’t have close friends or relatives working in ours. I’ve come across a few comparative studies of Western healthcare in my time, and they tend to conclude the same thing: the NHS is pretty decent. Not the best, not the worst. It suffers from underfunding relative to competitors. But we seem to get a reasonable deal for what we put in.
And while the experts I’ve read always agree the US system plunders cash like a pirate, they don’t cite the NHS model as flawed. There seem to be advantages and disadvantages to every country’s approach.
Still, I’m fairly sure no matter what industry any of us work in, we’d be pretty aghast if some politico rocked up every five years to usher in their ‘sweeping reforms’.
My guess is that wastes vast quantities of time and energy to no great benefit versus the alternative of helping people do their jobs.
I’m 59.I am a skilled blue collar worker and have always enjoyed my job.It is quite physically and mentally challenging though, so until recently my focus was on retiring pretty soon. However, the recent introduction of a 4 day week, based on 100% pay and productivity, 90% of the hours but 80% of the days (4 instead of 5) has transformed my quality of life and I am now thinking, I will probably keep going for at least another 5 years , maybe more even.
That one extra day off has made such a difference to the overall moral in the company.
I think employers who have staffing issues need to think outside the box.
60 hours slogging it out for minimum wage and crap conditions just isn’t acceptable post COVID.
TBH the tax we pay subsidised all these rubbish companies with universal credit top ups anyway.
If you can’t afford to pay or treat your employees properly, then you don’t really have a viable business.
The race to the bottom is over.
I’ve been a GP in the NHS for 25 years, a doctor for 30 years. While I don’t suppose the NHS is the system you would get it you were designing one from scratch now, I don’t think it’s the system that’s the fundamental problem. I reckon 5-10% of my workload is trying to expedite operations/extending sick notes/discussing pain relief while patient hobble along awaiting procedures etc. I was getting the same before the Blair government injected more money, and I genuinely found that issue more or less disappeared for a few years. You then have the costs of drugs etc. This isn’t inefficiency- this is scientific progress. Biologic drugs are mega-pricey and if NICE says drug is allowed, it’s allowed. Sometimes people’s quality of life is transformed by these, of course, but NICE never say what drug should be stopped to allow a new one though!
The biggest issues though are social ones- the knock-on effects of obesity, drugs and lack of social care are just enormous.
The NHS is not perfect however- systems with a (small) element of personal insurance seem to be a bit more efficient, probably by people having a financial interest in altering their behaviours a bit, as they get lower premiums. This was nicely highlighted recently by a study that found people who self-referred to Weightwatchers/Slimming World lost a bit more weight than a matched cohort who were referred to an NHS-run service giving identical advice- there’s nothing like a bit of skin in the game.
@windinthefens.
I agree. Here in Scotland, prescriptions are free so it is not uncommon for folk to get the likes of Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, cough medicine etc on prescription instead of from the supermarket.
Apparently a packet of 30p paracetamol from Aldi , the equivalent on prescription costs about 10 fold. NHS or someone is paying for that.
I have been talking to my company owner about adding a health care policy as an employee benefit. Benenden Health complement the NHS, where they basically step in for ailments that have a long NHS waiting list. It’s around £12 a month so not too costly for either employer or employee, if as an opt in.
Things like this could be scaled up to compliment the NHS rather than replace it..
Thanks @windinthefens, what you say confirms my impression from outside the NHS (but having been peripherally involved). While the structure may not be perfect, it may be there can’t be a perfect structure, resource would be far better directed to making the current structure work well than on tearing it apart.
At the moment I find myself needing a lot of medical treatment, and things have been pretty good. There was a delay at one stage due to the first Omicron wave which set things back, but otherwise I feel looked after. There have been some minor niggles – but those are due to the NHS having spent too little on admin not too much, communications issues that needed resolving by clinical staff when they would better have been using their professional expertise.
Comparison with other health systems is difficult; my time in the States was when I had minimal healthcare interactions. My sister was well looked after in Germany for a complex condition. The fact that things worked so much better here after a decade of catch-up funding from the Blair government (does anyone remember most ambulances arriving within 8 minutes, 4 hour A&E waits being rare, referrals within target) suggests the main problem is too few resources for staff to provide the service they would wish. A bit of manpower planning would help too. And a little bit of joined-up thinking about social care.
@Mr Optimistic
> Loyalty to your employer, colleagues, company doesn’t seem to be much if a thing. Let alone loyalty to your country ( did someone say ‘ we are the English’?).
Loyalty is earned.
I’m only 10 years in to my career. I learned in my first job, a small business of just 7-8 employees, that loyalty to your employer gets you nothing. Absolutely nothing. No employer gives a shit if you walk out the door. You’re replaceable.
I’ve seen a CEO tank a healthy perfectly profitable business through persuit of greed (houses, flashy cars) and then lay everyone off when the tax bill comes due. He had o sense of awareness that he had power over people’s livelihoods.
You can’t leave a legacy at work. I write software and I can tell you that it doesn’t matter if you’ve worked at a company for 6 months or 20 years. The day after you walk out the door every line of code you wrote and had pride in becomes legacy… a burden to those who aren’t familiar with it. Noone cares what you achieved when you’re gone, except you.
If you can feel good about the work you do, and improve yourself (skills) while doing it, great. Other than that the pay cheque is all that matters.
As for loyalty to your country? Within the last 5 years we’ve been stripped of opportunity by leaving the EU, taxes are higher than ever and the cost of housing is robbing millions from having any spare cash to invest for themselves or their children. Loads of consumer protections and human rights laws are soon to be stripped away, and privacy law in this country is appalling.
Bah.
If you look at the absolute percentage of people not working in the UK in the charts it’s pretty low compared to other economies. So maybe we are not doomed after all.
There could be any number of demographic reasons for the changes.
I am a bit bored with articles telling us why we are doomed. That’s one of the things I like about MMM.
@Andy I was working through a Limited Company when IR35 was introduced in 1997. I considered myself a ‘disguised employee’ and was certain HMRC would come to the same conclusion. I therefore declared myself accordingly and paid the substantial extra income tax and national insurance. Most of my erstwhile colleagues and subsequent freelancers either took a different view or, more likely, decided to take the chance that they’d never be challenged by HMRC. And in every case, they were correct. Those that remain are now all caught by the new assessment regime, but not before accumulating a lot more cash than myself (in some cases over a period of a quarter of a century), no doubt affording them the option of an earlier retirement date than they’d otherwise have had (or, arguably, entitled to).
Prior to Covid I was in my late thirties in a comfortable, mid-manager finance role in the civil service – with a DB pension and as safe a job security anybody can reasonably expect to have. Lockdowns in central London with a toddler allowed my wife and I to reevaluate our path. My wife works for a global firm so was fortunate enough to be in the position to first ask for, and then get approval, for a transfer to Australia (her place of birth). This enabled her to work from home in Australia (and be closer to her family) and for me to resign from my comfortable, but ultimately unfulfilling job.
We emigrated in late 2021 and have purchased a rural property. The change in lifestyle has been considerable and after a couple of wobbles questioning whether we were mad for doing it, we are so pleased we did.
Our son is in a fantastic local nursery and there is a real sense of community here – something that I found lacking, certainly in the places I lived in London, but also in the provincial towns I lived in. We are living ‘the good life’ – setting up a veggie patch, planting trees, buying chickens and brewing beer.
I’m unsure whether I will get back in to finance or have a complete career change and utilise our land by going down a permaculture route. We can live off my wife’s wage and have a reasonably comfortable life, which we are very fortunate and grateful for. I guess it’s easier to say being in this position but covid helped us realise that there is only so much money you need. We aren’t by any means super-wealthy. We live in a modest 3-bed house on land that is cheaper than it would be in the UK.
Time will tell whether it was the right decision, but right now it feels like the best thing we ever did.
The MMM article seems to ignore SoR entirely when presenting worst case examples (for Alina). Doesn’t seem worst case at all – the math seems to show a retiree’s investments matching inflation with no volatility – anyone got any investments that do just that? Or have I read it all incorrectly? Just ask a 1999 retiree for whom I am calculating (back of fag packet) that w/r is now knocking on 10 – 13%. Fingers x they get to 2030 in one piece.
A year or so ago, I suffered a serious meniscus tear with constant excruciating pain, leaving me bed-ridden and requiring a fairly straightforward operation to fix. Despite this, because it was elective, the wait time would have been circa two years under NHS – I cannot fathom the pain in waiting that long. Fortunately I used private health care immediately but otherwise I’d have paid the necessary funds out of savings or borrowed the money. The NHS is being privatised at a rapid rate. What cannot continue for ever will stop. If you are going to retire early or indeed retire at all – factor in some savings to pay for what the NHS increasingly doesn’t have the funds to deliver, which is a lot. I don’t even ever bother waiting for a GP appointment – just go private.
A couple of friends were over from Germany last week having emigrated a few years ago. They can see a marked reduction in standards of living since they checked out relative to their own position now. Much better healthcare, cheaper housing, smaller class sizes, better retirement prospects etc etc. Admittedly Germany is in one of the best positions within Europe and on the flip side they are stocking up on the wood burner this summer 🙂
I don’t remotely think we’re all doomed – just that the UK is increasingly…let’s put it nicely experiencing a slow puncture in relative standards of living. The electorate will only eventually be willing to listen to the reasons when it’s tried everything else, which is probably in a couple of elections. At that point there will probably be a great idea of somehow seeking to rejoin the single market. It’s only relevant to this discussion in that the support structures are being gently kicked away and so it puts greater pressure on the individual to have funding to replace those. Global economy though will probably do just fine.
@JDW Very aware of PoTS for my 35 year old daughter who suffered long covid/PoTS for a period of months. A very driven, hard working individual no lack of work ethic, she was floored, POTs is only formally diagnosed after 3 months, until then it is not recognised by the medical profession.
It did get better slowly and she is now working with the aid of strategic naps, private visits to a choiropactor helped a lot, ( why/how ??? She saw suggestions online in a PoTS group.) There is light at the end of the tunnel.
Brief outline of PoTS for those unfamiliar.
Postural Tachycardia Syndrome (PoTS) can be a life altering and debilitating health condition.
Simply standing up can be a challenge for affected people as their body is unable to adjust to gravity.
PoTS is due to an abnormal response by the autonomic (automatic) nervous system and is characterised by orthostatic intolerance (the development of symptoms when upright that are mostly relieved by lying down).
Symptoms include palpitations, lightheadedness, fatigue, sweating, nausea, fainting and headaches, and are associated with a persistent increase in heart rate from the lying to upright position.
Interesting to get a German point of view
As the lights go out in Germany now the only (or was) financial net contributor to the EEC after we left it will be interesting to see how they escape Putin,s clutches etc
Implementing Policies above Nation State level have always been Germany,s Achilles heel
They cannot do it-two world wars show this-their previous efforts!
They will save themselves at the expense of every other European country-Ukraine will be thrown to the dogs
Frankly I am glad we have blue water(20 mile Channel) between us and what promises to be a rough year or two for the EEC
Perhaps we will sink but I doubt it-our people are entrepreneurial and international in their outlook
We have been in this situation before and we seem to survive with our institutions intact-rule of law,freedom of speech etc
“Once more into the breach dear friends…” comes to mind
Plus we have a rather large like minded ex colony in our corner that thinks as we do-why wouldn’t they?
I know who I would bet on!
xxd09
Hey All,
Far too much NHS bashing going on here. Maybe it will take a 1st generation migrant to highlight that healthcare administered free to the point of delivery, even if a bit late (frustratingly) is still an unbelievable luxury, that 75% of the world would bite your hand of to have.
For ppl who want to jump the queue and have the money to do so, pvt healthcare is always an option. In my eyes, this is not a flaw of NHS, it is a feature. In any society, the ones with broadest shoulders should pay for the state expenses, but not necessarily depend on it for services. i.e. by definition, being rich-er than ‘normal’ should allow ppl to jump queues and consequently pay for it (2 times in effect). Anyone who thinks this option shouldnt be available to the rich, I refer you to the countless socialist utopias gone wrong over last 50-100 yrs.
On my part, as a 1st generation migrant, I count my lucky stars, that paying my taxes makes me eligible for a system that (although definitely can be improved) provides healthcare, free at the point of delivery, a luxury that wasnt offered in the country of my birth. At the same time, I am glad, that the pvt healthcare option exists, and is an aspirational goal for me (to give to my family). In essense, I want to work harder, to pay 2x taxes in order to make the pvt healthcare option for my family.
Just my 2 cents from a different PoV.
Regards,
Rishi
@CJ/xxd09 , the problem often is that those sources that try to get to the root of issues through hard analysis often end up with unfavourable conclusions for our incumbent Government.
So when the FT says for example that the vast majority of economists believe that Trussonomics is a very bad idea and ‘here’s why’ , that’s perceived as biased/leftist. If we end up with her as PM, we’ll probably also see accusations being thrown that the OBR and BoE are leftist institutions too, just because they disagree based upon all the evidence they have.
The FT’s recent reporting of Brexit as a financial disaster of course reveals similar ‘bias’ / reporting of facts, as one sees fit!
@SF:
Re: “w/r is now knocking on 10 – 13%” for a US retiree, depending on portfolio, see final table at: https://retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife22.html
Re: “Much better healthcare, cheaper housing, smaller class sizes, better retirement prospects etc etc. ” That is critically dependent on what you describe as “Germany” and “UK”. I suspect you have taken London to be your UK proxy, but am unsure what you have selected for Germany?
Great conversation all — in the interests of keeping the thread constructive, let’s try to keep it to the immediate financial and health issues raised in the article / comments please, rather than getting drawn into speculation about the future posture of Germany as divined by wars 80 years ago. 🙂
(I’m sure I’ll do another Brexit rant sooner or later where we can all get that out of our system again!)
Re: the broader ‘where are the workers’ debate, it feels to me like what we need (but don’t want) is a good old fashioned recession. An event to rebalance supply and demand, give time for China to sort its act out and for whatever new paradigm to emerge as a result of Ukraine to do so too, and for labour markets to experience slack once more.
At the risk of being embarrassed by markets, I’d be surprised if the recent uptick persists, as I believe the Fed will persist in tightening conditions until this is firmly in motion.
I hasten to add that whilst I enjoy speculating in words, my money remains largely in the market barring a tinkering around the edges. It’s easy enough to be wrong about what is known, never mind trying to guess what new world events will shape the next few years for us all.
Chaotic, bureaucratic and incompetent would be my word association with the word “NHS”. Yet, this is my small sample bias. The data suggest the NHS is neither particularly good or particularly bad compared to it’s developed country comparables. It has strengths in terms of critical care and weaknesses in terms of long-term care. The problem is the UK public and their tendency to worship it like some deity.
Based on pre COVID data, the UK was spending around £2,900 per person/annum on healthcare. In PPP terms, Japan is £3,500, Australia £3,600. France £3,700, Germany £4,400, Norway £4,600. The US is a total anomaly at £7,700. Nonetheless, it’s still over 20% less than the EU15 which averages £3,600.
As as a percentage of GDP, the UK spends around 10% of GDP on healthcare. Excluding the US, many others listed above spend 10.5-11.5%. So we spend about 10% less on healthcare on a GDP basis. Add that to the fact that we are simply poorer than most of the countries listed above. We need to compare our the quality of our healthcare to countries more like Spain or Italy, not richer countries like Germany, Australia etc.
So the UK public needs to rebase it’s expectations for healthcare lower or pay more out of their pocket. Around 80% of UK healthcare costs comes straight out of general taxation. Other than the Nordics, virtually no large country tries to support it’s heathcare system that way. The NHS needs to be refocussed on a narrrower set of core services, the rest paid for via private medical insurance. Something more like the Australian system where only 67% of funding comes from government and the other third is from private insurance. Having more private healthcare doesn’t have to mean going the way of the US.
@SeekingFire ” The electorate will only eventually be willing to listen to the reasons when it’s tried everything else”
No. They will just continue to blame their perceived issues on somebody else rather than blaming the right person: themselves.
Al CAM – many thanks that’s what I was referring to (bottom table in your link).
Assuming, Alina’s checked out in 1999 with $100k (75% S&P :25% Bonds), as of today, roughly, her portfolio is worth $55k (circa YTD 12% fall mix across S&P and intermediate bonds) with an estimated withdrawal next year of $7,260 (9% US inflation currently) equating to a w/r of around about 13%. Assuming from here on in returns = inflation with no nasty SOR, Alina will run out money in 2030 thus just by a month or two (!) keeping the 4% rule intact but it’s only just and obviously there’s a lot that can go wrong or right from here.
But I don’t think I’d be relaxed at this point, would clearly have adjusted my spending and nor do I think the sequence of returns from 1999 to now represent a real life worst case scenario. It’s not been great as 1999 – 2009 was was very poor but equally we’ve just had a decade bull market. Just shows retiring into a bear market is a killer potentially. Which MMM doesn’t really talk about as the numbers don’t kind of fit with the narrative…..
Always acknowledging that social security, inheritance (lol) and something might turn up are positives but there some equal negatives you can easily come up with – increased health care spending being the obvious one and you might also fancy living beyond 2030 too!
You’ve been unlucky to have been the 1999 cohort. Being a 2007 cohort is probably much better as the bear market was so short. Maybe the 2022 cohort will be……….?
Hello @TI
Just wanted to report an issue. I’m subscribing to the blog via rss on a news reader and sometimes some articles don’t reach me. I only notice from the weekend reading article when looking at the recap of articles published during the week. For instance this week i did not get the “Best multi-asset funds” article on my rss feed
@SF:
You are welcome.
So called safe withdrawal rate (SWR) is unknown and unknowable in advance. Same is also true of the so called perpetual withdrawal rate (PWR).
What I think is clear is that:
a) the PWR should be less than SWR; and
b) PWR is usually >0%
Everything else is a bit of a gamble with [possibly] bounded odds. That is, set your withdrawal rate too high and you might run out of money; set it too low and you might end up the richest person in the graveyard. Surely we can do better than that?
Re my second point: the website numbeo provides some interesting comparisons; albeit the data is crowd-sourced (ie unofficial) or whatever the correct terminology is.
Seeking Fire (#38) and Al Cam (#43)- By ignoring SoR all together, I think that the MMM post demonstrates a very important point: without SoR you need a much smaller pot than you would imagine to ensure that you will never run out of money.
Of course, it’s impossible to get rid of SoR all together. You can reduce it significantly though. The two essential ingredients driving SoR are your withdrawals and the volatility of your pot. Choosing a sensible SWR takes care of the former and your asset allocation can control the latter, as the link posted by Al Cam demonstrates.
To give another exemple, my most cautious portfolio has had an annualised volatility of about 3.5% over the last 6 years. The annualised return over this time has been around 7.5%. My total pot has an annualised volatility of about 6% and an annualised return of about 9%. In the recent turmoil, I am now down 1.92% from my previous peak at the end of April 2022.
@TBDW (#50):
Fair enough, but I would argue the biggest overall determinant of your outcome is luck – which I do not know how to control.
I would add to luck ( environmental factor) being blessed with good genes
People may argue but probably 50% is the split effect
Being well programmed from birth is a huge( quantifiable?) bonus and sadly undermines most progressive policies unless taken into serious consideration
xxd09
@Al Cam (#51) – Yes, it’s not possible to eliminate chance completely, but you can make it less of a determining factor and improve the odds in your favour. IMHO, that’s all you can expect realistically. Real life resembles Poker more than Chess 🙂
@TBDW:
I guess we might just see things differently.
You may be interested in this summary of the latest work by Pfau et al on retirement strategies that concludes, amongst other things, that: a total return approach is not always the most suitable approach, see:
https://www.kitces.com/blog/risa-framework-retirement-income-planning-client-preferences-total-return-strategy-risk-tolerance/
Tested positive yesterday, grrr. And I mask 100% except for a minute a week showering at the office 1 day. Fairly mild symptoms, like having a bad cold.
Really hoping for a quick and complete recovery now – lingering effects has always been the the real worry.
Serious long covid that affects my ability to work doesn’t bear thinking about, honestly. No safety net here.
@Al Cam (#54) – Thanks for the link to Pfau’s article.
I think that we basically agree that you can never eliminate luck all together just reduce its importance.
Even in the approach Pfau calls “the safety” approach there is an element of luck involved. Your annuity provider might go bankrupt and the government might not honour its promise to guarantee your annuity payments. The state pension might be cancelled because the government just can’t afford it anymore. There might even be a nuclear war. There’s no certainty about anything. All we can say is that some events seem less likely to come true than others. Moreover there are steps that we can take to make undesirable outcomes less likely. This and the deterministic fees from funds and platforms are what we can control and IMHO all that we need to concentrate our efforts on.
I attended a recent retirement party and after speaking with a number of colleagues who ( like me ) are retiring very soon (8 of us gone by Christmas).
The main factor was we all wanted our time, our time to do the things that we have never had the time to do with the white noise of work always lurking over your shoulder.
When you are in certain Government vocations, some can’t give it up, the job they do owns them, it is their identity.
I’m 57 and very recent charges to our pensions and the fact that you no longer have to request to work beyond 60 will suit many ( just have to pass the yearly fitness test).
A great many have no hobbies or interests and without work, they often sink fast.
I haven’t got my full years of pension in but time to go and do something else. I leave with about £20,000 a year and did indeed leave money on the table but my time is more important than money.
I’m off to college in September ( Bench joinery & Carpentry ) and looking forward to doing something that is creative and practical.
The youngest of the group is 49 years old and has done her full 30 years ( the new ones coming have to work forever – although many do not stay beyond 5 years or so).
Some are going back into the job market but only on their terms but so may others have a passion back in their eyes to go explore and taste the fear
Will I look at re-entering the job market after a couple years of college?
Might do but on all my other days off i wish to improve my drawing and art work and improve my canoeing skills – any endeavour requires time and concentration – work will get in the way.
Will it work out?
Time to face the fear and dive in
Very much enjoyed No More Work: Why Full Employment Is a Bad Idea by James Livingston
@TBDW:
Yup – no approach is 100% cast iron guaranteed.
A good related podcast (c. 20 mins duration) is at: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ep-22-risa-profiles-in-retirement-planning/id1533084522?i=1000537261218
Looking at the left hand scale of the FT graphs used, I’m not sure there’s such a problem here…. A bit of ‘graphs-manship’ to make a political point?
People ‘outside labour force’ (which presumably in the UK means paying NI) from 20.5 to 21.5%. Similar or fewer than nearly every other country shown except Holland and Sweden!
Can easily imagine that’s a combination of early retirees, retirees who used to do part-time work not going back, retailers clobbered by Covid and no longer hiring, more people working cash-in-hand, etc. Plus, yes, a few with health issues – but 300k workers too ill to do anything….? Quite a claim.
Also UK child care costs are very high – how many parents were working and paying for this but for zero / marginal benefit, and after Covid lockdowns just decided to keep looking after their kids for a while longer?
On SoR etc., most people overthink it – if there is a serious bear market it is likely because of / alongside interest rate increases, so why not in that situation switch some risk capital to bank savings or fixed annuity? And most people (although not all, I realise) reading this would be able to sell / downsize their home, and will pick up pretty generous State pension in due course. Something Covid (and to an extent Brexit….) has taught me is that many people’s comfort for risk and for change is exceptionally low, especially compared to previous generations. If you’re eroding a few % of capital each year, it really is a high-class issue.
@Marc — Thanks for the heads up. Frustrating. To be honest RSS has become a forgotten black box for us, like for 99% of sites. I appreciate this is disappointing; I too preferred the world of feeds to the social media stream when that battle was still being fought. But it is what it is. 😐
I’ve just checked and our feed is still valid and compliant though. I honestly am not sure what I could do to even check how articles are missing. Possibly we’re filtering something out but if so I can’t remember how!
FWIW I use RSS, via reedbro. And I got the link to the Best multi-asset funds article
@Dark_knight #57
> A great many have no hobbies or interests and without work, they often sink fast.
^ this. I don’t know when it was decreed somewhere in my journey from school to retiree, but somebody clearly sent the memo out, ditch all interests outside work and children.
I have observed these folk have a tough time of it, and arguably shouldn’t retire at all. An aching void to the question what’s life about is a difficult thing to live with it seems, though I would venture that if the answer is work, you’re making a category error, but each to their own 😉
The neighbours in my working class childhood area had interests outside work. They were diverse and sometimes bonkers- one guy made models from matchsticks, there was much fishing, gardening and the like as well as sports.
We’re far, far richer now, but the hinterland seems smaller, IMO because work has done a pac-man job and eaten much of people’s life force. Back in the day, when the factory whistle blew on Friday, people were off the job until it sounded Monday, now the smartphone keeps people on a tight leash.
I’m not surprised people thought there was a better way after the enforced hiatus of the pandemic, although there seems to be some reversal of the trend as people discover the toughness of the ask to retire early, particularly if you come at it older and from a standing start.
I suspect these figures are ultimately lagging. I work for a top US tech company in the UK and over the past 12 months the volume of position poaching amongst competitors and expansions in teams has been unprecedented. Jobs have been everywhere, LinkedIn outreaches which were once welcome became an annoying distraction and I ended up with recruiter conversation fatigue! The positive is that 12 months ago I switched roles to work at a company that has worked out well for me. Recruitment and headcount in this market has continued unabated this year
That was until this week. I know that at least two major Nasdaq companies have put in place recruitment freezes. Even my workplace have now hinted on a company call that their headcount is sufficient to support a materially larger market cap. Oh and the recession word has been mentioned.
I’d expect the narrative on jobs to change very quickly. Certainly the glut in jobs for my role on LinkedIn seem to have disappeared overnight.
Indeed. I had to put my job search (similar industry/region) on hold earlier this year, resumed this month and now all the companies I was considering are in hiring freeze. Check the charts on layoffs.fyi
People aged 15-64 not in or seeking work – many are in education, many are Europeans who’ve left the UK but haven’t been counted, some are parents who can’t rely on the grandparents to babysit their kids while they work, some rather liked not working and continued to do so after the lockdowns finished, some unfortunates are unable to work.
You can assume it’s all down to long covid, but that seems a bit simplistic to me.
@Justin — Not sure if you’re referring to me or other comments, but for my part I’m not assuming it’s down to Long Covid. On the figures here, the health impact rather seems to be *other* chronic diseases that have emerged/developed above trend, perhaps due to the strain on the NHS (through Covid) meaning less/later treatment, as I read it.
p.s. Sorry, I just noticed I missed the ‘can’ in your last sentence there, so I guess you were just make a general point. 🙂