What caught my eye this week.
Considering the high hurdle that politicians and business leaders have set themselves for something to be considered a sacking offence, I was surprised to see the boss of National Savings & Investments (NS&I) resign this week.
Of course, the NS&I FUBAR was a rough experience for the 37,500 people affected. NS&I’s mistakes saw bereaved families facing delays accessing their relatives’ Premium Bonds with a total value of up to £476m.
To give just one example from a BBC report:
Tracy McGuire-Brown from Newbury in Berkshire […] took six years to claim £2,000 in premium bonds her late father had left in his will.
The 61-year-old former care home manager says she “cannot describe how upsetting and frustrating” it was to deal with NS&I, and that she had to send in her father’s will and other original documents at her own expense.
“It was the most awful, awful experience,” she says.
No doubt – and not what anyone wants to deal with in the wake of the death of a loved one.
However, NS&I has more than 24 million customers holding £240bn with the institution, so the number affected is relatively small. According to Which the problems were caused by administrative failures – bad, certainly, but not malicious. The long delay between problems emerging and NS&I coming clean is problematic, but again the scale of the operation mitigates this to some extent.
With all that said – and, again, not to make light of having to fight to get your own money back – I think the real reason boss Dax Harkins had to go was because NS&I is held to a higher standard than a typical High Street bank, on the basis of its 100% government backing.
Trust buster
I’ve often recommended NS&I savings or Premium Bonds to fretful – but essentially financially uninterested – friends and relatives looking for somewhere safe to put their cash. Especially after the financial crisis.
No worries about bank runs with NS&I, or Financial Services Compensation Scheme limits, or your savings somehow getting muddled up in riskier lending. Just okay interest rates, the infinitesimal chance to win big with ERNIE, and a recommendation made in the same vein as nobody getting fired for buying IBM.
Also, faith in NS&I’s systems underwrites the Premium Bond draw.
There are already conspiracies about which Bonds win and who gets what prizes. NS&I can do without incompetence creeping into the mix, too.
Further reading:
- A terse apology from National Savings & Investments – NS&I
- NS&I boss replaced as savers left waiting for millions of pounds – BBC
- What caused the missing NS&I savings, and what you should do – Guardian
- Another take on the scandal and next steps if you’re affected – Which
- NS&I will have to pay compensation in some cases, say ministers – This Is Money
Have a great weekend.
From Monevator
Commodities are working – Monevator
The natural yield model portfolio wheels are turning – Monevator [Members]
From the archive-ator: A plan to be financially independent in ten years – Monevator
News
OECD says UK will be hardest hit by Iran war, sees 4% inflation – CNBC
World faces ‘stark and deep recession’, says BlackRock boss – This Is Money
Temporary petrol shortages possible at some pumps, warns ASDA – Guardian
How Trump and the oil price move in sync [Charts] – BBC
Reminder: the state pension age rises in April – Which
Buying UK housing most affordable since 2015 on price-to-earnings basis… – ONS
…as London house prices drop again… – City AM
…but rents are at an all-time high relative to incomes – Sky
Final candidates for seven new towns named – BBC
SpaceX’s mooted IPO valuation is in another orbit – Sherwood
Government defends landlord tax hikes as ‘fairer’ system – Property 118
FCA launches later life mortgage [a.k.a. equity release] study – Mortgage Strategy
Who ate all China’s stock market returns? [Paywall] – FT
Products and services
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The savings accounts that will pay you up to 5% – Which
How to swap houses for your holidays – Guardian
Don’t rely on AI to find you the best savings deal – Which
Get up to £3,000 cashback when you open or switch to an Interactive Investor SIPP. Terms and fees apply, affiliate link – Interactive Investor
HSBC, Barclays, Nationwide, and Halifax hike mortgage costs – Yahoo Finance
Five-year mortgages now cheaper than two-year fixes again – Mortgage Strategy
Fixed-rate mortgages go above 5.5%, but 4% trackers are available – This Is Money
Get up to £1,500 cashback when you transfer your cash and/or investments to Charles Stanley Direct through this affiliate link. Terms apply – Charles Stanley
Natwest switch offer: £150, or £250 for Premier account – Be Clever With Your Cash
What are passkeys and why should you use them for security? – Oblivious Investor
The best and worst family deals at major UK attractions – Be Clever With Your Cash
Loft-style apartments for sale, in pictures – Guardian
Comment and opinion
Could the triple-lock be scrapped, and should it be? – This Is Money
Index funds work – Money Changes Everything
Echoes of history: what the oil shock means for your money [Paywall] – FT
Seven lessons from ‘enoughfluencers’ on how to live a simpler, happier life – Guardian
Yes you can beat the market by avoiding its worst days. But you won’t – Morningstar
Why are young people taking so many unwise financial risks? – Bloomberg Advisor Perspectives
Safe until crisis: what 300 years of wars reveals about government debt – CEPR
Your financial past isn’t true. Neither is your future – The Net Worthwhile Weekly
The quiet transformations that separate investors from stewards – Bogumil Baranowski
How to compare well – Mr Stingy
The woes of managing money for a friend or relative – Financial Samurai
Hendrik Bessembinder has updated his influential stock return study [Research] – SSRN
Naughty corner: Active antics
The big problem with UK investment trusts – City AM
VCTs brace for record season after ‘bonkers’ tax relief cut – This Is Money
The reality of setting up as a solo investment advisor – Flyover Stocks
Ex-US markets look a good bet for value investors… – Verdad
…as Verdad’s founder Dan Rasmussen warns on private equity and more – Arena
In Elon Musk’s mind, SpaceX and Tesla have already merged – Sherwood
Tetra Pak: the shape of innovation – Quartr
Kindle book bargains
The End of Reality by Jonathan Taplin – £0.99 on Kindle
Boomerang by Michael Lewis – £0.99 on Kindle
Money Men by Dan McCrum – £0.99 on Kindle
Economica by Victoria Bateman – £0.99 on Kindle
Or pick up one of the all-time great investing classics – Monevator shop
Environmental factors
Britain sets new wind power generation record – RE News
Green energy enquiries surge as households fear price spike – This Is Money
Plug-in solar panels to become legal in the UK – Which
Evan Davis: heat pumps work for me – BBC
Earth’s climate increasingly out of balance – World Meteorological Organisation
The carbon burden of US companies – Klement on Investing
An unstoppable mushroom is tearing through North American forests – BBC
Robot overlord roundup
So long, Sora – Spyglass
Human musicians are doomed – Klement on Investing
Inside China’s robotics revolution – Guardian
There will be no permanent underclass – Of Dollars and Data
Not at the dinner table
The world’s policeman is on the take – New York Times [h/t Abnormal Returns]
Treason in the futures market – Paul Krugman
There isn’t always a ‘long arc’ of morality – Noahpinion
Democracy watchdog finds Trump aiming for dictatorship – Guardian
There’s an information void at the heart of the Iran war – Bloomberg
The voter fraud fraud – The Bulwark
Off our beat
Cheap drones are reshaping the war in the sky – Reuters
Five years of lessons from running a bookstore – Ryan Holiday
“I escaped North Korea with my mum. But…” – BBC
The clock in our genes – Aeon
Scientists identify a speech trait that foreshadows cognitive decline – Science Alert
The indirect – and sometimes surprising – benefits of vaccines – Stat
Google search tips and hacks – Card Catalog
And finally…
“Human beings have a remarkable ability to accept the abnormal and make it normal.”
– Andy Weir, Project Hail Mary
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Thanks for the link to the WMO report, here’s a short extract:
“The Earth’s climate is more out of balance than at any time in observed history, as greenhouse gas concentrations drive continued warming of the atmosphere and ocean and melting of ice, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These rapid and large-scale changes have occurred within a few decades but will have harmful repercussions for hundreds – and potentially thousands – of years”.
Obviously these climatic changes will impact the global financial system and it would be good to hear the thoughts of other experienced investors on this. It seems to me with everything going on in the world, investing has become much too risky to continue any longer.
John -before you give up on everything perhaps reading an alternative view with blogs like ClimateSkeptics plus it’s reports might generate some perspective
Armageddon is a perennial human favourite and no doubt will occur at some point but probably not just yet-“Keep calm and carry on” is possibly a more viable state of mind to be in
xxd09
@John — I agree on the trajectory, which is one reason why I’ve included environmental links on this financial blog for many years and why I wrote this post 15 years ago:
https://monevator.com/environmental-degradation-and-wealth/
Alas, politics has gone even stupider and a significant cohort of the electorate more wilfully ignorant since then.
That said, I wouldn’t say it’s a reason not to invest. Everything has risk, including not investing, as we don’t know the future.
It’s also very unclear how outcome A will affect investment B.
Being diversified and factoring in the possibility for some long tail risks is the most rational response IMHO.
@xxd09 — Human-caused climate change is a proven scientific fact, supported by approaching 100% of serious scientists who have looked at it.
Have a look at this:
https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/debunking-eight-common-myths-about-climate-change
As you know I have an especially low tolerance for anti-vaccine, anti-climate change, and similar unscientific quackery in these comments.
As the likes of @ZXSpectrum48K has amplified in these discussions before, this slide into unreason is causing major damage in the world – from politics to science to the environmental to global trade – so while I’ll happily accept a debate over say nuclear vs wind or on climate change mitigation versus climate change prevention, this isn’t the place for denialism.
There’s (alas) a big Internet out there ready to hear such inanity.
Re NS&I, I’m not sure that replacing the CEO with someone from HMRC can be considered an upgrade as far as customer service is concerned.
Thanks for the penultimate link, I learned something new that should be of help to get better search results.
@John Crises that are foreseen well in advance are almost never as damaging as widely predicted. I would have few concerns about the ultimate impact of something as slow-moving and generally understood as climate change on the global economy. What’s going to get us eventually is likely to be something sudden and completely out of the blue, maybe a super volcano, a massive Earthquake or a nuclear war.
@The Investor – thanks for the link to your 2010 article…excellent and some interesting comments.
Of course, 16 years ago, the global warming was just 1.0C above pre-industrial levels and we have now moved on to ~1.5C and on track for the critical 2.0C by 2036 as we see absolutely no sign of phasing out fossil fuels.
You referenced the global population at 7 billion, it’s now 8.3m and heading for 9bn by 2036.
We have another three years of Trump and judging from the chaos of the first year, I can’t imagine what he might do in that period but I certainly would not rule out the use of nuclear weapons as a last resort to save face over Iran.
I’m afraid of what’s coming down the line for my children and grandchildren and share the conclusion of the late James Lovelock – “the scientist who coined the Gaia thesis – reckons it’s already too late”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8594000/8594561.stm
I would be really appreciate an update to your 2010 article to reflect the changes to investing risks during the intervening period…
I’m no climate denialist, but what does this actually mean ‘The Earth’s climate is more out of balance than at any time in observed history,’? Is it hotter, colder, getting hotter quickly? Out of balance just doesn’t mean anything. And what does ‘observed history’ mean? It’s such a rubbish, woolly sentence. Climate change is a problem for humans, not so much for the planet. It doesn’t care, it’s seen it all before, to far greater extremes. And on population, it’s already topped out, go and read some Rosling. Population is something that can be really accurately predicted well in advance.
@Rhino — You might try reading their huge report and accompanying data, rather than criticising an inevitably imprecise one-line summary.
I agree with your that the world doesn’t care, and even if we nuke it life will go on eventually. What should matter to human beings though is not nihilistic bravado but the relatively few short millennia more we’re likely to be around for it mattering to us.
Of course the Earth changes all the time, but the speedy pace of human-caused climate change in geological terms (and consequences such as species extinction and ecosystem collapse) is closer to the impact of an asteroid than a gradually reshaping over thousands of years.
I don’t have kids so it’s more a matter of abstract moral concern to me (and aesthetics I suppose) but if I had children or grandchildren I’d probably be on the streets with the activists. 🙂
@John Edwards — I am not sure I have much constructive to add. You could have looked at all this and thought ‘buy renewables sell fossil fuels’ (as one somewhat prominent UK investing blogger did before closing down their website a few years ago, on reaching similar conclusions to you). And then the wilfully ignorant elect the strategically opportunistic Trump and he goes on a war against green energy and says things like ‘drill, baby, drill’.
We’re not so far off from the generations who burned menstruating women as witches and worshiped rocks, I suppose.
Again, the best I can offer as a long-term response is diversify widely, don’t buy a home near an estuary, and be aware if you consider relocating to a country that can’t protect its borders as the impact on farming in say North Africa (already evident and driving population movement) really kicks in.
@reactive — Well I kind of agree, in all but the doomsday scenarios some kind of economy will survive. “Time bombs don’t explode” has long been a handy mantra of mine. Let’s not forget to add pandemics to your list.
@Bassavoce — You’re welcome, it’s a good one hey? A couple of weeks old but I made the rare decision to include it anyway given how useful it is.
“OECD says UK will be hardest hit by Iran war, sees 4% inflation”
4%? I suppose it will, in the sense of passing through 4% on a giddy path upwards. And then pass through it again, downwards, during the transition to depression. But it all depends when and how this foolish war ends, doesn’t it?
Will the ruling revolutionaries in Iran start worrying about preserving the wealth they have presumably accumulated over the last four decades? (Do they read Monevator, do you think?)
Or will they dig in their heels, cross their fingers, and carry on, trusting in the impatience of American voters, the incompetence of the Pentagon, the whims of Mr Trump, and the vulnerabilities of Mr Netanyahu?
On those matters the OECD knows no more than I do.
@TI
“…(as one somewhat prominent UK investing blogger did before closing down their website a few years ago, on reaching similar conclusions to you).”
I think John Edwards is the blogger to whom you are referring? His deleted site was diy investor (uk).
Cheers for the links @TI and for the exciting Yieldy Portfolio update this week – v pleased to get an interim article about it.
On NS&I I suspect this may have also factored in his firing: “ MPs brand NS&I’s £3B IT overhaul a ‘full-spectrum disaster’” More in The Register if interested.
@TA has asked me to not engage in further non-investing related debate for a week, so on reflection I’ve deleted a couple of comments (and my witty and brilliant responses — honestly, but fair’s fair) and I’m afraid I’ll be deleting further climate denialism on this thread. There’s plenty of places to discuss it if you want to.
A significant number of readers are turned off by these debates, and there’s plenty of other stuff we can discuss.
@TI: A wise decision, thanks. I’m sure the majority of the readers will agree with TI’s viewpoints about climate change, brexit etc. However, having these discussions derail every WRs would be unfortunate. I’m not even sure if some of these commenters are real or bots! Monevator is one of the last places of refuge for me in increasingly AI infested and enshitified internet. Long may it continue!
“Of course, the NS&I FUBAR was a rough experience for the 37,500 people affected”.
This seriously underplays the dire customer service and managemen t problems of NS&I which have been well documented for at least a decade. These 37,500 were the tip of the iceberg – many of us who have first hand experience in dealing with NS&I, or getting simple problems sorted have been amazed by the incompetence and idiotic bureaucracy. A simple query unresolved can lead to months of to and fro and end in formal complaint and compensation. . Admin systems are stuck in the last century – truly appalling. . Customers deserve better and proper accountability.
Ironic and revealing that their ‘cost cutting and modernisation’ programme is already 1.3 Billion over budget.
> their ‘cost cutting and modernisation’ programme is already 1.3 Billion over budget.
Indeed, it is the way of the business world. We had a department that went through that repeatedly with each new broom. Saving money was costing them a fortune as one wag quipped. People don’t seem to understand the wisdom of Chesterton’s fence; you must understand how the old system functioned before you can sweep it away.
There is a lot of irony in the Bloomberg article talking about Iran’s internet shutdown leading to an “information void” while the same article is void of the fact that hacked CCTV / traffic cameras were used to kill Iran’s leadership (including Khamenei). And the fact that the US State Department smuggled Starlinks into Iran to facilitate internal insurrection including Mossad agents on the ground (Mossad tweet: “We are with you. Not just from a distance or through words. We are also with you on the ground.”)
It doesn’t matter what you think of Iran, if hacked CCTV was used to kill the US President and Iran was facilitating internal insurrection with agents on the ground in the US the narrative would be entirely different.
Especially in war, the story is much more important than the facts. People don’t march to their death based on the fifth decimal point.
On Chinese stock returns, someone said that in the West prices lead and the government reacts, in China the government leads and prices react. Or the invisible hand vs the visible hand.
Not sure how the first dozen posts veered into a to and fro on climate change denial. If you don’t think that there’s climate change, or there is, but it’s not anthropogenic, then I’d suggest taking 20 minutes to consider the evidence (Arvin Ash, ‘Complex questions explained simply’, “What’s the Evidence for man made climate change”, spoiler alert ‘overwhelming’):
https://youtu.be/-skE4jCuf-w?si=FT8s1ZQ8lORxG391
On NS&I, I rather suspect that it’s a mix of:
– Staff have no commercial experience of difficult multi vendor IT procurement
– Organisation doesn’t understand contract performance needs to be constantly and proactively monitored and enforced (if needs be by threat of litigation)
– Institutional lack of memory as to why NS&I had the pre-existing systems which they did and then no understanding organisationally of what could go wrong and why (@ermine’s Chesterton’s Fence).
– Unfounded optimism that the project will work out, with a desire to cover up problems rather than identifying them early and then immediately solving them. Post mortem rather than pre mortem. Optics over substance. And an all round deficit in the necessary degree of paranoia and cynicism required to avoid and mitigate the obvious risks of failure.
– Public sector bias (and perceived procurement process restrictions) invariably favouring bespoke untested ‘Frakensofware’ and systems over just buying something proven and good enough off the shelf. Also a bias to big projects. Why just have and settle for a trusted gopher when you can instead bet the House on a not yet existing White Elephant?
We see similar problems with HS2. For a country which kicked off the industrial revolution we’ve become pretty hopeless at everything 🙁
On SpaceX / Sherwood link:
Efficient Market Believers: Focus on allocation & low costs.
Short Term Investors: Betting on momentum & price changes.
Long Term Investors: Finding the gap between Price and Value.
But where in this framework do investors fit in who are prepared to buy $75B of SpaceX IPO float on a $1.75T valuation (?) given that SpaceX:
-only had an estimated $15B-$16B turnover last year (so paying 110 times trailing revenue and, at $24B revenue estimated for 2026, 73 times forward sales); and that,
– whilst SpaceX made an estimated $8B profit on a standalone basis, Musk has merged it with xAI, which is burning through over $1B in losses per month, with an expected loss of $13B in 2025, and all on an annualised xAI revenue run rate of just $500 mn (a minus 2700% margin!)
That’s before even considering the dodgyness of the accelerated index inclusion for this IPO, which could pose systemic market risk (Riffing of Cypress Hill in 93) ‘Insane in the brain’ (IMHO). Steering clear.
@TI:
Thanks for the links.
Find myself agreeing with Krugman (again) and @dearieme – insofar as 4% seems lowball to me. Probably just the same old nonsense from the pundits including the BoE again i.e. a short, sharp, contained inflation shock – to give you the impression that they have a reasonable understanding of the situation (and how it will develop) as well as some form of control. IMO, they have not, but probably dare not say so, as some wag may then ask exactly what is their purpose?
Just a quick p.s. on the Sherwood link, SpaceX point @my#17 above:
Musk has been overpromising and then under delivering for so long now that it’s become his MO of sorts.
His most recent, $1T value, pay package called for TSLA to go from a $1.1T market cap today to $8.5T by 2035, and selling at least 20 mn EVs and 1 mn Optimus robots p.a. by then.
For a reality check, IIRC, TSLA EV sales are falling 13-14% globally (47% down in Europe) at 1.8 mn, Optimus is a demo product and revenues fell 12% YoY (3% quarterly) with net earnings down 16-23% YoY and negative FCF.
Here’s a summary of Musk’s broken promises on FSD and Robotaxis since 2014:
https://substack.com/@georgenoble/note/c-234740750?r=2kxl2k
TSLA is a hype machine par excellence. Maybe the hype can get the share price to $2,800 ($8.5T market cap), assuming no dilution ( 😉 ) by 2035; but I’d guess that the board would then likely just drop the other requirements to accommodate Musk.
If that happened Musk’s TSLA shareholding would reach $2.45T, which is a big incentive for “number go up”, as they say in crypto.
For balance, one very online TSLA bull (who has 40% in PLTR, 20% TSLA and 40% SPY) has a bull case on TSLA of $7,900 for 2035. I suppose anything is possible in the stock market….
Thanks for the links as always, that search engine link is gold by itself.
I don’t buy the AI risk to musicians, I think there will be a lot of AI generated slop for people who don’t really listen to music, and real music played live will survive just fine for people who do.
On climate change deniers it seems to me that the people online who became experts in world trade in 2016, and then moved on to public health in 2020, are now bringing their expertise to bear on climate science.
@Delta Hedge #19 > Here’s a summary of Musk’s broken promises on FSD and Robotaxis since 2014:
I view the real problem with the arrogant tosser Musk on these is that I might meet one of these damn things coming the other way.
FSD could probably work if we could firstly get all the humans off the road, like at midnight Jan 1 2027. That includes pedestrians not using traffic light controlled pedestrian crossings.
And the upgrade the roads so the roads/traffic lights talked to the FSD cars and maybe the FSD cars talked to each other, within about 50m.
Not gonna happen in my lifetime. Musk has got blood on his hands for being such a twat, he hasn’t brought FSD up to the level of a competent horse. Calling it Autopilot is mad, for starters planes on autopilot operate in controlled airspace, cars don’t operate in controlled roadspace, so that terminology is criminal misrepresentation of the facts.
There’s good stuff to be done in controlled roadspace and truck convoys on motorways perhaps, but the combination of robot driving and people driving isn’t a good one due to the different characteristics. Human drivers are responsible for 5 fatalities per billion miles (2024) according to gov.uk. There will be a higher incidence of crashes as thankfully not every road crash is fatal, but Tesla’s self reported (vehicle safety report Q1 2025) claim of one crash for 7.4 million miles doesn’t impress me that much, particularly as Tesla autopilot fails seem to often be at full speed because autopilot didn’t observe the hazard.
I do enjoy reading the comments but sometimes a remark that Mark Twain made in a letter to a friend comes to mind “You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.”
Thanks for the comments all. A few quick replies:
@Larsen — I think there will always be human artists too, but my line for 5-6 years now is I believe all artists will be Performance Artists, capital P. Yes typically live performances in the case of musicians, but also art connected to a personal story that is somehow more than can be replicated by an AI story. (E.g. a painter who very visibly interacts with the real-world via live TV or similar). As the research showed, AI music is almost there. A year or so ago I was fooled into listening to AI ‘chill beats’ type music on Spotify that came with a whole look and feel, brand identity etc. In the end I have kept the playlist and put it on from time to time because it goes down a treat. As someone who saw over 100 live gigs in my student days I’d quite agree that’s ‘not all music’ but it’s in the mix I suspect.
@ermine — You write:
Are you aware that Waymo is currently doing 500,000 trips a week? Admittedly in a limited geographical range, but it’s expanding all the time and I will be among the first to jump into one when they properly launch in London.
(Unless you meant Tesla’s FSD specifically, but your comments don’t suggest that).
Robot drivers are far safer, based on the data I’ve seen. One problem though is they tend to go wrong in grotesque ways that we don’t like versus a human being. E.g. driving slap bang into a wall for no reason, versus fiddling with a mobile phone. Society will have to decide to what it extent it will stomach ‘death by glitch’ versus lower fatalities overall, IMHO.
@platformer — Well Trump was talking about ‘taking’ Iran’s oil over the weekend, like he was talking about ‘taking’ Cuba last week. And to think people said those of us horrified by his re-election were overdoing it. Anyone who thought that then was suspect, in terms of their political judgement in a liberal democracy — now their ongoing position/support would be laughable if it wasn’t so potentially dark.
@ermine (#21)
“FSD could probably work if we could firstly get all the humans off the road, like at midnight Jan 1 2027. That includes pedestrians not using traffic light controlled pedestrian crossings. And the upgrade the roads so the roads/traffic lights talked to the FSD cars and maybe the FSD cars talked to each other, within about 50m.”
The transition period between fully-human and fully-robot (i.e., right now) is well known to be a significant problem.
Having done a tiny amount of engineering work in this area, it was noteworthy that most of the players were vehicle manufacturers who didn’t appear to give much of a stuff about pedestrians (there were some, apparently genuine, suggestions that pedestrians should be completely separated from traffic by not allowing them access to roads at all and others who appeared to believe that pedestrians would cross the road directly in front of vehicles in the blind faith that the vehicle would stop or swerve.
My (joke) of a suggestion that the trolley (tram) ethical problem could be updated by having people’s phones broadcast their net worth so that in the event of an accident the ‘least worthy’ person could be killed appeared to be taken seriously by some at one meeting.
Communication between cars is already possible (e.g., via 802.11p or 5G), although there are distance limits at junctions, potentially network problems in very busy areas, and privacy concerns. Retrofitting the existing road network infrastructure for communications in the UK would be prohibitively expensive (and potentially be out of date in a decade).
ps I should have added that available data, e.g., see “Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only crash rates by crash type to human benchmarks at 56.7 million miles” suggests that self-driving cars have reduced accidents by about 90%.
This suggests that, on a like for like basis, Weymo has 15.3 times fewer accidents than Tesla FSD (Level 4):
https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/s/Yh94Kd3yDv
Not really surprising given that Weymo understandably chose to use (more expensive and) robust and proven LiDAR over Tesla’s (cheaper but) unproven, limited visual only cameras and, ahem, some ‘AI’.
SpaceX aside (which has done some impressive stuff, for sure); when it comes to Mr. Musk, I’m inclined to believe that, while he talks the talk, it’s actually Alphabet who walks the walk (with Willow Quantum Computing Chipset, Project Suncatcher, Tensor Processing Units, Gemini, Google search, Chrome, Android OS, AlphaFold, Deepmind and Weymo). Personally, I’d be long GOOG, and underweight TSLA.
@TI #23 > I will be among the first to jump into one when they properly launch in London.
Nothing moves fast enough in inner London for a vehicle to vehicle crash to be huge, the evening standard bitched about this. If it weren’t for the cyclists I feel safe enough crossing the road in London. I was specifically talking about Musk Autopilot bloviating.
Years ago I did some incidental work on an EU (remember them) project looking at intercar comms, and Alan S seems to indicate this has sort of progressed,
The Tesla fatalities reference is linked here at 5.6 fatalities per billion miles. Given this is almost the same as the collective humans in the UK with their drunkards, the druggies, the gangs, the old gits who can’t see right, the young folk with a need for speed without experience as well as all the ordinary folk going about their daily business, that really doesn’t impress me at all. Particularly as US highways have far more room and lane discipline is far better in the United States than on this crowded island.
I didn’t know that Waymo use a differetn tech to Musk, but all I can say is if the best Tesla can do is average UK human standard, but with the added barminess of high speed crashes and ploughing into fire trucks etc, then no, in no way is this full self driving, in no way is this Autopilot, and IMO it shouldn’t be allowed.
I’ve been in a Tesla with driver assist and I see nothing wrong in that, but the point was this was being driven and DA helped with lane straying etc. Autopilot is a very different thing.
@ermine — Um, that article you reference isn’t talking about FSD. It’s talking about humans driving Teslas (i.e. all Tesla customers to-date) likely assisted now and then with autopilot. At most it’s saying having autopilot available / on sometimes doesn’t make Tesla cars (the brand) safer than other brands. (It suggests it might be because people are even more distracted and accident-prone drivers when they have auto-pilot switched on.)
Respectfully, I’d have a bit of a read around before you reach further conclusions on autonomous vehicles and so on. Your data seems to be wrong even before we get to the conclusions. 🙂
Tesla’s goal is to make it all a lot cheaper and more generalisable by using cameras alone (as humans do, basically). The jury is indeed still out I’d say.
There are other approaches. E.g. London start-up Wayve is essentially trying to produce a fully generalised ‘driver’ that you can plonk down anywhere.
I was too optimistic about AVs — I expected a speedier rollout a decade ago — but that part of the J-Curve is old news. It’s happening, provided we can put up with the horrible glitch-deaths as I said above. (I am not sure ‘we’ can even with massively lower overall casualties but time will tell.)
As I say, Waymo is driving 500,000 trips a week fully autonomous, albeit in a restricted range of cities. The accident rate is magnitudes lower than human drivers, for whatever reason (not least it drives slower…)
FSD isn’t just possible, then, it’s here. Scaling that out may present a challenge, but given they quickly Google-mapped the Earth I don’t think insurmountable. 🙂
@Delta Hedge
Re: “… Personally, I’d be long GOOG, and underweight TSLA…”.
Personally, I’m content with however much of either/both of them are in my global equities passive ETF’s.
I steer clear of everything Google. In my experience they have a go at so many things, and it all ends up looking half-a*sed, or manipulative. I use, reluctantly, an Iphone and constantly think how dated it all feels. Gone are the days of Steve Jobs and the creation of great products. Replaced by the mind numbing ethos of Tim Cook. Noticeable that Warren Buffet’s big investments in Apple only occurred when the Cook era got going.., few new great products, incremental ‘improvements’ to existing lines, locked in users. Just a money generating machine. Yawn.
May I recommend a film to see. ‘Blackberry’. Hilarious account of the rise and fall of Research in Motion.
Meanwhile in the wilds of the north, I’m still waiting for any sign that the issue of EV charging for those of us without off street parking is even being thought about by govnt. Still stuck with an ICE vehicle reading discussions of FSD that just seem like sci fi to me.
I’m not sure what the problem is that FSD is trying to solve. And what works in the US may not work as well elsewhere, I’d like to see FSD trying to navigate Jakarta for example.
I meant to say I was surprised there was no link to the court findings against Meta and Google. There’s potential there for big compensation payouts in the future.