What caught my eye this week.
Much younger readers who’ve known nothing but the lifestyle-curbing consequences of Brexit – not least no right to live and work across the continent like their parents enjoyed without a thought – may find this hard to believe.
But Monevator lost a big chunk of readers in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum.
Many Leave voters didn’t like it when I de-cloaked as someone who thought the whole thing was a crock – and threw this little website into the (futile) fight against the hardest Brexit on the table.
You see, at the time the investing media and forums were dominated by 50-something Blimps spouting a bizarre blend of nostalgia for Empire, shipbuilding and coal mines, and a hyper-free market capitalism which they claimed would get us past centuries-ago proven laws of economics.
To say it was incoherent is to flatter their position with a label.
And today only the most shameless Brexiteers try to make any economic case for Brexit.
I commend this Leave voter on this week’s Question Time for at least not blaming perfidious Remainers for the glaring absence of a Brexit dividend:
#Newsnight audience member on voting leave: “I don’t regret it … it’s a generational thing ”.https://t.co/7kmessYy9v pic.twitter.com/LujZ4ab3hl
— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) January 30, 2023
Still, it takes some cognitive dissonance to say on national TV that Brexit was touted as something that would take 20 years to deliver economic benefits.
I know you can’t be bothered with me running through the laundry list of campaign claims again.
But like the many Leave voters who also say their Referendum win had nothing to do with racism – somehow forgetting a decade of bile from Farage culminating in Nazi-inspired propaganda on the eve of the vote – anyone claiming Johnson and chums warned it’d take a couple of generations to see any financial benefits of us leaving the EU faces the inconvenient fact that 48% of us were also there.
And I for one will never forget what they really said.
Three years of counting the cost
As I will also always note, there was a credible – albeit to my mind quixotic – political argument for Brexit.
If the fullest possible technical sovereignty for the UK was all-important to you (despite any apparent downsides to its absence) then Brexit was a reasonable price to pay for it.
And at another end of the multi-faceted coalition to Leave, racists and xenophobes also had a case.
But if you truly believed Brexit would deliver economic benefits – or if you knew it wouldn’t but you were a leading Brexiteer who decided to dupe the public – then when will you put your hands up?
There is a feeling among the commentariat that the waters have broken on this dam of denial.
I’m not convinced. But three years on from Brexit, and it is striking how even the ever-timid BBC couldn’t find much to ‘balance’ the economic argument on its Newsnight special this week.
The latest for those who’ve lost track of the score:
- The UK is the only G7 economic yet to recover its pre-pandemic size – Reuters
- The IMF says we’ll fare worse than Russia, which is under international sanctions – Sky
- Almost all the 71 post-Brexit trade deals just replicate our EU arrangements – BBC
- The Bank of England says we can no longer grow more than 1% without inflation – FT
- Brexit has left the UK economy 5.5% smaller – Bloomberg
- Brexit supporting areas have fallen even further behind post-Brexit – Bloomberg
- UK car manufacturing output is back to 1956 levels – Fleet News
- Farmers aren’t happy with Brexit – Guardian
- Fisherman aren’t happy with Brexit – IntraFish
- Xenophobes aren’t happy with Brexit – The Migration Observatory
- We’re seeing the worst strikes and industrial unrest since the 1970s – Bloomberg
- No wonder: Brexit has ‘cracked Britain’s economic foundations’ – CNN
- Net retail sales of UK equity funds have been negative every year since the Brexit referendum in 2016, with cumulative outflows reaching £33.6bn – FT
The numbers are in. From an economic perspective Brexit has been a car crash.
Here’s what you could have won
What, if anything, can be done about it?
Well we could rejoin the EU. Personally I believe that’s far more likely to happen in 20 years than the economic reality-defying renaissance envisaged by the Question Time audience member above.
But for now it’s off the table.
At least PM Rishi Sunak seems somewhat pragmatic, even if he has to keep throwing the same rhetorical discombobulation to the loons in his party.
If his government can sort out the (entirely predictable) issues in Northern Ireland, then perhaps it will pave the way for a renegotiated trade settlement with the European Union.
Maybe even something sensible like the softer sort of Brexit that was thrown off the table in the aftermath of our very close run Referendum.
I appreciate it is unlikely. Free movement remains a lightning rod. Even dashed dreams of effortlessly retiring to the Spanish costas have not persuaded enough Leave voters of the benefits of a quid pro quo.
(With immigration from non-EU countries soaring post-Brexit, maybe these Leavers would support reciprocal free movement deals struck with Kabul or Mogadishu instead? They’re not racist, after all. So I’m sure they’d feel at home under the sun there.)
In the meantime sensible politicians like Jeremy Hunt are left scrambling for anything to take the edge off.
Hunt’s recent speech touting the UK as a centre for innovation was all very well.
But people familiar with, for example, the London-based fintech scene he lauded knows it was built with significant input from a wave of talented immigrants working alongside Brits. Some top players such as Revolut were even founded by immigrants.
What’s more, the government has actually been cutting back on support for innovation. See for example its curbing of R&D tax credits for smaller companies.
With the numpty-wing of the Tory party already calling for income tax cuts just months after the Truss fuss, you can understand why Hunt’s March Budget will blather on about ‘Brexit benefits’ in the way a parent calms a stroppy child by making promises about Father Christmas in April.
But there are no benefits and there’s ever less money to offset the damage.
That’s it. That’s the bottom line.
Don’t believe the hype
Brexit was of the same fantastical populist thinking that saw man-child Donald Trump vow to build a giant continent-spanning wall and Hugo Chávez give communism a second go in Venezuela.
But unlike those disasters, we’ll be living with ours for decades to come.
Maybe the optimists are right and the tide is changing. Perhaps Brexit support will dwindle and be contained to the right-wing of the Tory party and other useful idiots, and the rest of us can try to inch back towards a more sensible economic integration with the giant on our shoulder.
But I think it’s more likely that when this recession ends and the dead cat of the UK economy bounces, Brexiteers will seize on it as evidence that their mendacious project is working.
There will definitely be investment in the future in Britain. There will be new and fantastic British companies. Our universities will continue to turn out some of the brightest innovators in the world.
None of that will have anything to do with Brexit – but when some of it inevitably delivers, it will be claimed as a Brexit dividend.
Our GDP will grow a bit, and Leave supporters will hail it as evidence we’re not shrinking.
There will be no understanding of the counterfactual. Or that we’ll be starting hundreds of billions of pounds in the hole.
I asked an AI for its impression of Brexit.
All very gloomy, but I will add that – aside from ripping away the rights and freedoms you were born with – Brexit needn’t curb your life chances on an individual level.
The long-term advocates of Brexit were always the free-est marketeers of the Tory party.
Similarly, by looking after your own finances – and judiciously investing in global markets, perhaps rebalancing into currency gyrations whenever the pound has a funny turn – clever Monevator readers of a capitalist bent can prosper in a post-Brexit regime.
Have a plan B, in case it all goes truly south. (I mean a second passport or similar).
But I personally think that’s less likely to be needed than it was six months ago. (I’d guess less than 5%?)
The Mini Budget threw a bucket of cold water over the majority of politicians and business leaders. Now nearly everyone understands that rhetoric doesn’t pay the interest on our debt, nor nurses’ wages. Hopefully this has innoculated us against the worst populist derangements.
No, it’s a decade or more of falling behind our European peers that’s nailed-on for us now. Perhaps with more drama to come over Scottish independence.
And for what, eh? Crown stamps on pint glasses?
Ho hum.
Have a great weekend.
From Monevator
FIRE: Emergency midwinter broadcast – Monevator
Family Investment Company: the FIC FAQ – Monevator
From the archive-ator: reasons to rent a house instead of buying – Monevator
News
Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view click through to read the article. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing to sites you visit a lot.
Bank of England raises interest rates to 14-year high of 4% – Yahoo Finance
We’re aware we mustn’t push rates too far, says BoE’s chief economist – Guardian
House prices fell for the fifth month in a row in January… – Sky
…even as rental prices surge to hit a new record – In Your Area
Bill to extend maternity protections passes in House of Commons – Guardian
Shell reports highest profits in its 115-year history – BBC
FTSE 100 closes at new all-time peak – BBC
Cardboard box demand plunging at rates unseen since Great Recession – Freight Waves [h/t AR]
Are we headed towards a ‘polycrisis’? The buzzword of the moment explained – Vox
Products and services
NS&I brings back one-year fixed rate bonds paying up to 4% – NS&I
Will the interest rate rise trigger a stampede for tracker mortgages? – Guardian
Transfer your ISA, SIPP, or general investing account to Bestinvest and get up to £1,000 in cashback. Existing customers included! Terms apply – Bestinvest
Cost of fixed-rate mortgages to fall as UK inflation outlook brightens [Search result] – FT
Scams: FCA blocks more than 10,000 ads from Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube – Guardian
Push into illiquid assets exposes UK pension savers to higher fees [Search result] – FT
What to do if you’re one of the 600,000 who missed the self-assessment deadline – Which
British homes for sale in areas perfect for spring walks, in pictures – Guardian
Comment and opinion
What is retirement? – Humble Dollar
How to survive the financial shocks of redundancy [Search result] – FT
Why gold is valuable – Of Dollars and Data
Are the new private pension reforms enough? – FT Advisor
The best and worst decades to be a saver and investor [US but relevant] – AWOCS
We’re probably not in a low-return world – Morningstar
Retiring at 62? The French have it absolutely right [Search result] – FT
Victor Haghani and Nobel Laureate Myron Scholes on the golden rules of investing [Podcast] – Elm Wealth
How long it takes different asset classes to recover [as measured via fund proxies] – Morningstar
The cost of being single – Yahoo Finance
Retired early and wondering what to do? How about fighting for everyone else – Guardian
Crypt o’ crypto
UK government consulting on future regulation of crypto assets – GOV.UK
Proposed rules set a modest post-Brexit diversion from the EU – Coindesk
Work-in-progress mini-special
People are more receptive to radically re-imagining their work lives – Paul Millerd
American’s fever of workaholism is finally breaking – The Atlantic via MSN
Ten harsh lessons from ten years of entrepreneurship – Darius Foroux
Endless diversification won’t get you deep work you love doing – Young Money
The real cost of shadow work [Search result] – FT
Naughty corner: Active antics
The importance of long-term earnings forecasts – Klement on Investing
The value rotation is just getting started in Europe – Verdad
This is a really trashy rally [Search result] – FT
An old letter from Seth Klarman on the forgotten lessons of 2008 – Investment Talk
Weighing up recession risks vs the prospects for a new bull market – Investing Caffeine
Kindle book bargains
How to Make the World Add Up by Tim Harford – £0.99 on Kindle
The Making of a Manager: What to Do When Everyone Looks to You by Julie Zhuo – £1.99 on Kindle
Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – £1.99 on Kindle
The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data by David Spiegelhalter – £1.99 on Kindle
Environmental factors
In Norway, whale watchers churn a “soup of chaos” – Hakai
How much is a sustainability label worth? – Klement on Investing
Trouble at sea – Biographic
The coming wave of climate legal action – Semafor
Off our beat
Everything you can’t have – Morgan Housel
The antidote to envy – More To That
The hidden link between workaholism and mental health – The Atlantic via MSN
The ‘OK’ computer [History of the pioneering Apple Lisa] – The Verge
Easy steps to improve your health in old age – Humble Dollar
Nothing drains you like mixed emotions [Couple of weeks old] – The Atlantic via MSN
And finally…
“I have taken to living by my wits.”
– Sherlock Holmes, The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes
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After some influence by Monevator.com and observed facts from everywhere, the Lady and I had a serious discussion about emigration this week to Europe.
One of the joys of a burgundy passport and dual national status I guess.
Kids complicate things and the UK’s low tax (ISAs for example) make it a hard choice.
If we had less, it would be an easier decision. The trappings of wealth perhaps?
But the prospect of deteriorating public services, lowering standards of living and everything else that Brexit Britain offers makes us want to move – as a sense of long term “it’s for the best”.
Remainers leaving? Brexodus? Call it what you like but Brexit has been a disaster.
Brexit reminds me of the miners strike of the 1980s. You pick your side and make your choice. I know people who still don’t / won’t talk to each other some 38-39 years later. What odds on Brexit fostering the same animated feelings in 2054? Irrespective as to whether you voted leave or remain, there isn’t much evidence (in my eyes) that it’s been the success it was touted.
I do think mistakes were made by both sides….False promises from Vote Leave and threats from Vote Remain.
Very few benefits have materialised as predicted by Vote Leave. Economic forecasts don’t look good. Who in the right mind wants to wait 25+ years to see any benefit? For Vote Remain, this little isle doesn’t take too well to threats. We almost have a FU spirit hard-wired into our DNA that stretches back to 1940. ‘Back of the line’ said Obama; FU said the average voter.
No matter which camp you reside, things don’t exactly look rosy for the UK.
Investor, what negative effect has Brexit had on you personally?
Re the article about the fall-off in demand for cardboard boxes,there is another indicator of the impending recession ahead i.e. the plunging cost of sea freight. Last year,I shipped a 40’container from China to Hamburg,the cost was US$18,500.00,the same shipment would now cost approximately US$2000.00.
It was always a fallacy based on being duped or being a dupee craving power and ironically, control.
Two main points that should have been avoided – like him or loathe him, byt David Cameron made the wrong and horrendously miscalculated decision to put the in/out ref in his manifesto, just to try and placate a few loons on the fringe of his party. And the ridiculous choice of a simple yes/no question presented without any resonable plan to a vast majority of the population (on both sides) who don’t understand the complexity of global trade and economics. (Let alone Farage et al banging the awful brown-people-coming-over-ere-are-bad-drum)
As Super Hans said, you can’t trust people Jeremy, they like Coldplay and voted for the Nazis.
The Yorkshire Bylines blog is always interesting reading, especially the David Davis Downsides Dossier, which iz currently at 909 downsides and, erm, 23 upsides of Brexit https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/brexit/ &
https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/regular-features/the-davis-downside-dossier/
Having shared office space in a previous job working in tourism with the UK office with the trade department of a region of an EU country, I trust those who know more about it than me when they say it is a shitshow.
Thanks again for the article and links.
“What odds on Brexit fostering the same animated feelings in 2054?”
I don’t know, I really don’t think so. Did you see that UK map the other day showing which places still felt that leaving was the right decision? It was pretty much only Boston and Skegness that were still in that space.
Also, entirely anecdotal, but what used to be flaming online battleground from 2016-2020 between remainers/leavers now to me seems very eerily quiet. Only the very most bizarre people are really still bothering to claim they think it’s going great, and they’re generally so laughable that you wouldn’t even bother engaging.
For me though, it’ll continue to jab in my side for the foreseeable. I’m now having to mess around with Schengen day calculators to live my life, and fielding questions from snarky/genuinely confused Germans as to “whether I needed a visa to come here?”.
Unfortunately I feel the nuance that many UK people detested the idea from day 1 is often somewhat lost outside of the UK, so they just kind of assume we all thought it seemed an amazing idea and worse that we all carried the same sort of hubristic attitude that the key proponents had. Having to defuse that idea before engaging normally is a real shame.
@CC while I can’t speak for @TI, for me it meant I had to change jobs. My previous role involved regular travel to an EU country, however after Brexit the position was moved to said country from the UK. While I am very fortunate to (now) have a nice maroon EU passport thanks to a Northern Irish born grandfather, my partner does not and therefore would either fall foul of the ridiculous new travel rules or have to jump through hoops for resident/work visas (let alone the impact on their own London based job). At the end of the day, I did not wish to either uproot them or move without them and commute at this point in our lives, so I left the job and the industry for a contract role, then a few months of job searching, delaying FI plans, house move, having kids. Just one personal example, if needed.
I think one of the biggest crimes of Brexit is the impact on free movement, and opportunities for the younger generation to live and learn other nations and cultures with the removal of the ERASMUS scheme and it’s inferior replacement.
There will be three big blocs in the coming decades, USA, EU and China. To be outside of that, sourcing trade deals with smaller blocs and nations, replacing the better deal we already had with the EU is madness, and less noticed due to the slow puncture of the damage rather than immediate blowout.
@WCTL — I don’t know, you do find recanting Leave voters who claim they “weren’t told about the downsides”. Generously I suppose we might put it down to what media you were reading. It’s hard to know what Remainers could have done for the best; defending the status quo against a public (temporarily?) ready to believe fairy tales was always a tall order. We said the economy would suffer and it has. That’s not a threat, it’s a fact. I agree there were some stupid extreme statements (20% house price crash), presumably as an attempt to meet the nonsense written on the side of buses and so on in the field of battle. As a ‘slow puncturist’ I find that hugely regrettable, partly because it was unlikely and partly because it’s given Brexiteers a scaffold for their ‘project fear’ after-story. Bottom line is when you wrestle with a pig you both end up covered in muck I guess.
I think the miner’s strike analogy is a good one. I certainly don’t feel I was wrong about anything, except that immigration has held up. I didn’t expect that; I couldn’t have believed at the time that even that crop of lying politicians and populists would simultaneously tout ‘curbing pressure on housing and services’ etc by reducing immigration as a Brexit benefit while afterwards enabling it to continue. I’m less innocent these days. 😐
@Atlantic Span — I think it’s a hugely hopeful sign that trade is normalizing. China coming back online will help too.
@GFF — I do occasionally think the same. Maybe I’ll liquidate most of my ISAs, pay off the debts, and move to Portugal or the Med islands. The trouble is I love London and I (mostly) love the UK too for that matter. It’s my home. It’s difficult.
@CC — The pound crashed so I’m poorer on the global stage. My country is poorer, so (if I wasn’t an investing wiz) my economic prospects would be weaker. I can no longer live and work in Europe — a rich continent full of variety and hundreds of millions of smart interesting people — and nor can my friends and family. And they have to jump through hoops to come here. A massive loss of post-WW2 freedom. For nothing. Racists in my country were emboldened and I have to live alongside them. I could go on.
@JDW — It was a gambit that backfired for sure. I will always believe more confident and capable politicians could have at least negotiated a softer Brexit though. Whatever the vote was, it wasn’t a mandate for hard Brexit.
Oh god, not again. Given everything else going on, most people don’t even think about Brexit much these days. Obviously you feel your personal life plan was affected and you will never forgive those you consider responsible for screwing things up for you. We get it. But, oh god.
@far_wide — Indeed, I think by the time Brexit happened many were regretting it though few said so.
All you had to do was to visit the Brexit day ‘celebrations’ in Trafalgar Square. At one end were (literally) a few thousand Brexit supporting blue rinse types with picnics and Union Jacks and a stage featuring non-entities.
At the other end of the square were (literally) a few hundred thugs and racists.
That was it.
I’m a Londoner. I know what mass celebration looks like. The Olympics. Many Royal events. Obama.
And I’ve been at events featuring a million people (anti-war march, the biggest anti-Brexit march).
The idea that Leavers didn’t bother showing up because it was in the bag is a total joke. The whole thing is a nonsense hoisted on us by a minority of zealots who seized a moment of crisis and adroitly exploited it, after sowing the seeds with 20-30 years of lies.
Even the guy who ‘got Brexit done’ had a pro-Remain speech in his back pocket until the last minute.
And some people still defend it.
Better to be a poor loser than a sucker. 🙂
I am constantly surprised that so many very intelligent and articulate people have been unable to get past Brexit. It has become the bogeyman that touches almost every part of their lives. I hope that none of them remember how they acted and how they felt when the UK voted for independence from the EU. I am quietly confident the benefits will be felt slowly (but significantly) over the next few decades, as the other EU members start acting in their own self-interest.
When the Brexit-caused-this hobbyists in the future compare how things are for the UK at that time and how they felt when it happened (and even now) it might cause significant cognitive dissonance and denial:
“No, I didn’t write hundreds of words about it every month, I just got on with it.”
“There was no way to know that Brexit would work out at the time, I am not even sure it has – not in the way the public was told it would.”
“There were no signs that the EU would become what it did.”
“When those idiots voted to leave, the EU at the time was a shining example of success, with countries all over the world looking to replicate it.”
I feel the way I did at the time, even now. As Benjamin Franklin is quoted as saying: “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”
@green_as_grass — Still around? As I warned politically ignorant Leave voters who complained I was “still going on about Brexit” three months after the vote (and ahead of four years of pitched Parliamentary battles, let’s not forget) I will be giving my honest take on Brexit for DECADES. Because it will still be affecting us.
Anyone who isn’t up for that can ignore the posts or is welcome to unsubscribe. 🙂
I’ve moved away from the UK. That’s not a boast – it’s actually quite sad but I think my kids have a better future now.
Brexit wasn’t the only reason for moving but it certainly added to the ‘let’s go’ side of the discussion.
@Sam — Who isn’t “getting on with it”? For my part I’m still working, bought a flat, paying the mortgage.
Businesses who were/are against Brexit have spent literally billions coping with the extra paperwork and regulation, and funding stupid regulatory operations that basically duplicate exactly what we had before.
We’re ‘getting on with’ the costs of your (economically) damaging project. But that doesn’t mean we have to like it, nor that we won’t seek to change the terms of the arrangement in the future.
Zero extra safety in practical terms has been achieved by Brexit. Almost certainly the opposite.
At the best we’ve been ‘protected’ from a future fight over deeper integration with a bunch of hugely reasonable people who are more or less exactly like us in every meaningful way.
Moving away from Brexit for a moment, I really wasn’t expecting to have coffee ruined for me by the ‘improve yourself article’.
“2. Drink filtered coffee. Drinking unfiltered coffee, such as Espresso, Turkish and French press, can raise your cholesterol level 10% to 15%. Since these types of coffee don’t use a filter, they allow a cholesterol-raising chemical called diterpenes, found in coffee beans, to enter your body. ”
I have somehow lived my life thus far avoiding this apparent fact and enjoying all sorts of coffee guilt-free. I can’t help but wish I hadn’t read this!
@Sam personally I’m amazed people are still so naive in the weight of cold hard evidence that they are either blinkered or deluded. Ho hum.
From the sunlit uplands and sitting on their own OBR forcast of a 4% reduction in GDP, our own government shared this week IMF backed G7 economic information this week showing the UK at the bottom of the pile for forecasted economic growth in 2023, which included France, Germany and Italy in addition to the wider Eurozone.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/
Accordingly to the IMF, our economy is due to grow, er, -0.6% in 2023. The only negative one forecasted. Can’t think why!
While of course there are myriad reasons for the current issues of inflation, energy, cost of living, as @TI says, the consequences of Brexit are harmful for the many reasons mentioned. The successions of bad governance and governments making bad decisions over a short space of time and damaging policy is certainly harming our response on a global level.
Much of the more important parts of human make seem to be divided equally in half -presumably because it’s an evolutionary successful trait-males/females,liberals/conservatives etc
Political leaders need just to move a small proportion of the population therefore to get a democratic mandate
Incompetent leaders are therefore easily and consistently undone-current state of affairs?
Conversely competent leadership can as easily run the ship but these leaders/politicians see to be very thin on the ground-are there any?
Competence means appealing to a meaningful democratic majority
There seems to a singular lack of ability to do this
Also it’s not an economic argument yet-people’s belief systems are much more powerful as a driving force unless of course mass starvation,inability to heat a home occur then economics come to the fore
Working abroad,import/export business do not factor in many peoples lives
Holidays to Spain seem to be running at pre Brexit levels -probably what most of the populace think the Continent is for -sun and sand!
Historically of course U.K. has always had an on off relationship with Continental Europe
In fact the current state of affairs could be argued as the more normal scenario
It would be too much here to go into the reasons for this
Trying to understand the reasons for the current situation is as much fun as studying investing !
That’s enough from me!
xxd09
JDW and Investor, I’d be p****d off too if my plans / finances had been spoiled in that way.
Nobody asked, but I’ve not seen any difference to my life for better or worse. Or have I and not noticed?
Ps. “The other EU members start acting in their own self-interest”. Well one of the most likely candidates Italy won’t leave the EU any time soon. They may have a populist eurosceptic right-wing government, but even they know full well they need to financial support being in the EU brings – in particular a massive Covid recovery fund.
@cc well, you did! 😉
“what negative effect has Brexit had on you personally?”
Glad you have been unaffected – have a nice weekend. 🙂
@TI – Another Brexit benefit for your list…
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/feb/04/brexit-causes-collapse-in-european-research-funding-for-oxbridge-universities
@Sam who wrote: I am constantly surprised that so many very intelligent and articulate people have been unable to get past Brexit.
As Omar once wrote, “The moving finger writes…” so why not get on with whatever is left.
Be concerned if you must, about the annual 100k school/college leavers without basic qualifications, the 15% of workers who have no savings, and the 35% who couldn’t survive a month before their cash ran out.
Something for educators, past and present, to ruminate as they ponder their forthcoming pay and pension increases whilst wondering why their chosen profession has lost it’s way, public respect, and purpose.
Something I still find amazing is that if a couple both with only British citizenship move to Ireland (or Northern Ireland) and have a child, that child is still automatically entitled to Irish citizenship with no requirement on duration of residence for parent or child.
@Andrew — Ireland is well aware it benefits hugely from such inward migration.
Great links at the end, as always.
@JDW Ok I should have said neither of you asked me.
At least you care enough to wish me a good weekend, you too
In the interests of balance I’d point out that there arguments against those in all the articles you quote . You may or may not consider these authors Blimps
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/what-impact-is-brexit-having-on-the-uk-economy/
I suppose the point is that a lot of the “Brexit has been an economic catastrophe” arguments rely heavily on contestable assumptions about where we’d be if we hadn’t left the single market. (Counterfactuals if you like).
FWIW I accept that Brexit will have had some negative economic impact – if you increase frictions to trade that’s a near certainty. But I would argue that the negatives have been far less than remainers predicted (eg look up historical projections of City job losses), that domestic economic policy is much more important vis a vis growth and that in any case the democratic deficit in decision making by the Commission was the reason to leave. Nation-based parliamentary democracy was being eroded and for the long-term that was storing up deep trouble (in my view).
For those who call upon people to get over Brexit, would they also ask to forget our other mistakes of the past? Or those of harsher regimes? Are future British citizens ever likely to deny their history?
For me it is a sick joke of a thing, a “what have the Romans ever done for us” sketch in reverse, A “don’t mention the war” gag in a very British sit com.
I don’t know anyone Brexit has not had a negative effect on.
Lest we forget.
JimJim
C’mon it’s about time you put it behind you mate. What’s done is done. I’m not convinced, despite your negative view of UK, that Europe is roaring ahead. Quite the opposite.
@Andrew
Irish (and therefore EU) citizenship is easy to obtain for about 10-15% year of the Uk population
Indeed there was much swearing in our home when one of brexit voting neighbours cheerily told my wife that he and his whole family were applying for their Irish passports before Christmas because he was “sick of queuing”
Luckily he just got made redundant due to ‘economic conditions’
Schadenfraude ensued
@Passive Investor — The economic impact at this point is undeniable. Just look at the graphs in those articles, we’re the only country yet to regain 2019 levels and we’re even doing worse than sanctioned Russia. It’s not a coincidence. As you say it was nailed-on; I can’t quite recall if you were also saying that five years ago, I do know you’ve always been on the constitutional angle with Brexit. I agree some people made some more extreme economic predictions about the consequences of Brexit, which I never associated with myself with. But I don’t recall many prominent Leave campaigners talking about the ‘economic cost’ worth paying…
Anyway on the sovereignty note, somehow 450 million citizens of the EU who in my experience are more or less just like us — and just as proud of their own countries and as nationalistic if not more so — somehow labour on under the ‘undemocratic’ EU framework, as nationally sovereign countries.
In fact, their support for the EU has increased since Brexit.
I don’t believe 17 million people in the UK have astutely spotted something they’re missing.
Thanks for the links. Quite like the song playlist style titles and AI generated impression. Being a borderline Boomer almost GenX I could well be dead before the country sees any benefits of Brexit, but good luck to all otherwise!
I’m confused, having booked a summer holiday abroad for the first time in years do I need some sort of visa to travel to the EU? UK Gov site says no, ETIAS site says maybe in 2023. This sort confusion now is one of the maybe minor issues. Oh and ordering something online from the EU or even getting something bought in the UK that goes to the EU for warranty repairs has the potential of couriers asking for money before handing it over. Even heard of people buying from a UK online shop that ships direct from Germany having this issue. Why would anyone vote for all this hassle we now have on top of everything else?
@far_wide – keep drinking your coffee if you enjoy it. One of life’s pleasures – maybe I’d better not follow that link!
@ TI, Brexit was 2 barrels to our own 2 feet no doubt, but is there a danger your passion on the subject blinds you to the bigger picture?
There have been a lot of recent research into the UK’s productivity and GDP/head. Gordon Brown of all people produced some excellent stuff on it recently
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Commission-on-the-UKs-Future.pdf
Most of the graphs in there are zingers, but the one on p23 most caught by eye. For the 2 decades into 2007 (credit crunch) the UK was 1st or 2nd in GDP growth per capita in the G7 (& massively productive etc). Since the credit crunch we’ve been joint bottom with the Italians. The US (whose credit crunch it was lest we forget) are now top.
Taking a step back and correlating with the politics. Major was doing his (limited) best to just make things work. Blair/Brown just wanted tax receipts and productivity to fund their public sector plans – they were insanely happy for people to get insanely rich as long as they paid their taxes etc. So the City was making boatloads & all PAYE by the way (despite sniped to the contrary).
Then the credit crunch and the chattering classes decided that ‘banker bonuses’ were the cause of our ills. Osborne was nothing if not in tune with the Today program and went with it, ordering Stephen Hester to decimate the Investment bank at RBS (he refused and resigned the next day), letting French socialist Barnier kneecap Les Rosbif etc etc etc. Fair enough if what you care about is the optics and the politics, rather than the jobs/tax receipts/productivity/GDP. Fair to say the US took a very different path indeed (and are now top of all those tables).
Brexit is just a continuation of that path, choosing policy on memes rather than what will drive our prosperity. It’s almost enough to make you nostalgic for Blair!
@all — Thanks for all the comments.
@far_wide — Sorry, I was already familiar with that downside to coffee! I restrict myself to one strong espresso a day for that reason. (Sometimes more when out and about, and always last by 3pm for sleep). Coffee has loads of health benefits that to my mind offset this health negative, plus as has been said it makes life worth living! 🙂
@Vroom — Well FWIW I agree with almost every word you’ve written there 🙂
But I don’t see that as being incompatible with thinking Brexit was a joke that has further weakened our prospects. You can believe all these things at once.
One of my innumerable issues with Brexit was that (aside from technical sovereignty and arguably xenophobia enabling) Brexit is a solution to no problems. Productivity / a lack of investment is just more to add to the long list. (E.g. In as much as ‘leveling up’ is even possible it didn’t need Brexit. We could have increased minimum wages if growing inequality was the issue. Etc).
As evidence for my at least attempting to keep an open mind, you might recall I saw some positives in the underlying Truss/Kwarteng Mini Budget (though of course not the contemptuous neo-Tory delivery). I cited productivity specifically as the reason: https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-i-wouldnt-start-from-here-if-i-were-you/
I recall waking up in the morning after 2 major events in the past 24 years with a bad feeling that things would be different going forward.
One was 9/11 and the other was Brexit.
The first one was easier to accept and get used to but Brexit has been very hard to accept and one still does does not know how bad things will get in the UK.
Knowing not to ‘buy’ Brexit was as simple as looking at who was ‘selling’ it. It was a move orchestrated by targeted advertising from shady sources abroad, sold by Tory Eurosceptics to benefit the wealthy, deregulate the economy and avoid the (then) forthcoming EU tax evasion legislation. Little wonder it was pushed by the likes of JRM and Aaron Banks.
Brexit could not have been timed worse, economically. The identity issue is a big one; not just for leavers. Ceased feeling British following the referendum. Have nothing in common with the Mail/Telegraph view of the world and foreigners; “the Germans”, “the French”, “taking our jobs, homes” etc. No longer felt any support for the England national football team. Fortunately as a dual UK-EU national my right of free movement remains. The biggest indicators on how you voted were age and educational attainment. Surveys showed the thin leave majority had tipped to remain before 31.1.20. John Curtice now calls this “voter replacement.” Meaning more young new voters, less elderly ones. For at least 10+ years, rejoining is a non-starter. But if current economic trends remain the same, and unless the UK restructures its economy the way many leavers believed and “levels up”, demographic change will result in an even larger pro EU majority in the UK population. Just as younger generations in NI have a different outlook. But what that results in, well there are too many unforeseeable elements to predict what will happen in say 20-30 years. Including how attractive rejoining the EU is to future generations versus remaining as Little Britain.
@ The Investor. I am happy to put my hand up and say I misjudged how traumatic Brexit would be both in terms of the UK national divide and the negotiating position of the EU and therefore the economic effects. I naively thought that the EU would come to terms with Brexit and would want to keep trade as frictionless as possible. Instead of this they have stuck by the principle of maintaining freedom of movement which is really about the political project (not economic). Brexit terrified the Commission and to stop their project falling apart they’ve been determined not to keep trade frictionless despite the fact that this harms the EU economy too. An organisation which wants to administer a ‘punishment beating’ to a member that has the temerity to leave isn’t attractive to me.
Your comment about 450 million somehow labour on just feels a bit complacent to me. (Political systems that lack democracy are OK until they’re not and people look for other non peaceful ways of expressing their political will). It also ignores the huge number of those 450 million who don’t want to be members of the EU.
We won’t agree I am sure but thanks as ever for all the investing pearls on the Monevator site.
far_wide (#15) – Perhaps this doesn’t apply to everyone. I used to drink 6 double espressos per day, now it’s only 3 or 4. Despite my double espresso habit, I have never had high cholesterol (had it measured often in medical check-ups as I am over 55). I do like having a really large bowl of porridge for breakfast and enjoy eating oily fish regularly though.
If I were you, I wouldn’t give up my espressos that easily 🙂 You can get your cholesterol level checked and find out if you there is any need to follow up on this news.
£850+ extra per month to be single: in my opinion this is a tax/cost worth paying upfront for autonomy and true freedom (unless you miraculously meet your true life partner)!
The article strips out the other costs avoided, especially for my gender: high(er) potential likelihood to suffer emotional, financial or physical violence, divorce and/or simply a dull life of stultifying compromise.
I’ve loved owning my own key my whole life. I’m richer on every level for paying this price. Of all my friends, only one has a relationship with her husband that I would choose for myself.
I’ve loved defying norms and saying no to proposals and ending romances whenever they faded.
I think working on money market trading floors in my early twenties was instrumental in learning to exert power like my male colleagues and cut losing positions without regret.
@London a long time ago
I would agree with you on that singleton premium – I’m glad that I’m able to pay my bills/mortgage on my own and love my freedom and autonomy.
Thank you for this. It can never be pointed out too often that if you voted for Brexit, you really didn’t have a good reason. You really, really didn’t. Really.
I have to say I have never had a single conversation with anyone about how they voted in the Brexit referendum (or overheard any such conversation, with the exception of a bit of ‘because of Brexit’ weariness). On a macro level it’s clear we (or the state, to be more precise) will collectively be a bit poorer but for most individuals the economic impact will be negligible, or be perceived that way at least. The ‘sick of the queues’ reference above is probably the main one many not running import businesses or trying to staff care homes will have noticed – and every time I fly out to Europe I curse little England for making me stand in the plebs queue.
@E&G, not sure of your logic. If we are collectively poorer then on average we will be individually poorer – though some groups will suffer more than others and you may be in one of the luckier groups. But as you say the hassle in entering other countries (which we were told wouldn’t happen) and the extra cost of mobile phone calls (ditto) are an irritation to all of us, regardless of whether we have personally suffered the effect of trade friction.
We have a Brexiteer friend who continues to claim the outcome is wonderful – but it is noteworthy that after the vote he immediately applied for an Irish passport (courtesy of his grandmother) that isn’t available to us Remainers.
Off main topic but what caught my eye was the markets having a very positive January. The Nasdaq is up ~15% YTD, helping to recover a lot of last years portfolio loss. Reasons to be cheerful and all!
Calculus (#45) – Even more impressive is the Russell 2000. It used to lag the S&P500 by more than 7%, but now it’s more than 9% above the S&P500. Happy days are here again! This week, my total portfolio reached a new all-time peak 🙂
#Calculus & TBDW
Highs in my portfolios too. Are you secretly relishing ‘feeling’ rich(er) again? I’m not a big market watcher these days so not really bothered by the ructions but I still feel ‘smarter’ when things go well!
@ weenie, I always look out for your comments and try to read your blog …
Sending you best regards …
House! I have filled the card with the same old slurs:
– stupid/thick/didn’t know what they were voting for
– racist/little Englanders/little Britain
– most leavers regret it/the leavers are dying off to be replaced by remainers
That’s democracy folks, you don’t always get your own way. It’s not going to change anytime soon, that ship has long since sailed. It’s over for a generation. Forget it. Wipe the tears away. Move on.
I’ve always been an ardent Remainer, and like @Carlos left Britain to secure a better life for my children when it became clear the wages of Brexit were finally coming due. And what a reckoning it’s been…
I do know friends who, rooted in their cultural history of opposition to Europe, will always view Brexit as a victory regardless of the costs, a rare win against the technocratic elite. We will never see eye to eye on this with us as they aren’t even talking the same language (metaphorically). They will never concede that this was a colossal mistake, and would rather die facedown in a puddle than turn around and admit they were wrong.
Seneca said “Only time can heal what reason cannot.” let’s hope it does and we can all clean up this mess within my lifetime.
Jonathan B, I mean there’s not a lot that is directly tangible for most folk – in the abstract we know it means less nurses/carers/roads being maintained/fewer jobs created etc. but it’s very difficult to say that it would have been my care affected, my street that didn’t get the potholes filled or that it was me that lost a job or job opportunity. And consequently it means for most, even with a general sense that Brexit was daft and driven by ignorance and lies, it barely registers in their lives.
@ TI, True, true. The pendulum does finally seem to be swinging, with all sides talking increasingly earnestly of the need to grow the pie etc. Fingers crossed Starmer means it!
I’ve never been to a dinner party but just incase the daily fail have provided a guide on how to interact with the blimps of the world and what questions they may ask . https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-11714171/10-awkward-questions-throw-EU-Rejoiner-corners-dinner-party.html
I don’t know if I’ve suffered from Brexit yet, or even the covid crisis. If I recall correctly my portfolio shot up 5k shortly after the referendum and with the covid crisis I’ve socked away loads and have made a few K in the last week in correlation with the all time FTSE 100 high.
I seem to enjoy a crisis or at the very least profit.
So can we have some more silly-nomics please??? Bring back kamiquasi maybe?
Well, just before Brexit happened I hopped on a plane and secured myself temporary Spanish residency in an afternoon. This summer, we’re off on holiday to Spain where we’ll start (and hopefully complete!) the process of getting my wife and children the same. My wife is Latina, so needs just two years residency and taxes in Spain to become a citizen and my kids will get it too. So in a couple of years, once the kids are settled in secondary school, she’ll move to Spain and get the citizenship while I and the kids will stay here. Fingers crossed!
All this to get back what my children were born with and had taken from them – the option to live and work in and with the citizens of 27 other countries..
@The Great Escape
Yes, that’s true. But also in democracy you retain the right to continue making the argument and oppose and debate the issues, especially when said argument to remain is increasingly shown to be valid from an economic perspective.
@The Great Escape – democracy also means being able to change your mind.
Why do we have to wait a generation?
I hear this a lot from my Brexit friends every time a Brexit negative comes up: well it’s happened now. As if that’s it and there’s nothing that can be done. Head down plough on.
@JDW – agreed – but no political party seems to want to ask the obvious question.
@Brod
I’ve had a look at the D7 passive income visa (Portugal) and the Spanish equivalent (needs much higher income). My understanding is that you need to be a tax resident and be there 6-8 months a year. Portugal being much more generous on tax for 10 years.
Can you give a little more info on your solution – are you a tax resident and what tax rates you expect to pay, thanks
Thank you, Neil McC, for the Daily Mail link. I was a borderline remainer and was surprised at how disappointed I felt when the vote result was announced. A trusted source shows imports from the EU are down so at least the pain appears to be working both ways. The link from the Mail cannot be considered a trusted source, but if it is true that part of the cost of rejoining would be replacing Sterling with the Euro, then it is game over as far as I am concerned. However, if it’s not true . . .
@London a long time ago (#47) – If I ever feel richer, it’s probably due to having lower expectations than most people 😉 I’m not a big market watcher either, but check systematically every week to monitor the noise. I want to make sure the volatility of my total portfolio remains quite low.
Long time reader, but commenting for the first time. Thank you for such a great blog!
As an EU citizen, I lived and worked in the UK for almost a decade when the referendum result had hit. Spent months in disbelief and was watching the circus of ‘getting it done’ the following years with intense feelings of betrayal, disappointment and powerlessness – that’s what the 3.5 millions of EU citizens living in the UK had been served with.
Fast forward 6 years, got our affairs in order, the jobs, the visa for the partner, sold the house in August’22 and moved to the EU country I’m from. With that, taking close to £500k of assets with us and more to come when we access our DC pensions. Plus, all the taxes we will not pay and the cash we will not spend in the good old Little Britain…
I must say, Brexit was not the only reason to move, but it certainly cemented the decision. Our kids will too have more options when and if they need them.
In the days after the Referendum, Cameron, Johnson and Gove legged it. May did what she could for a sensible deal but had to fight both extremes with no majority. That intransigence at both ends brought you Johnson. Super.
I voted as a Lexiter. And then for Labour in the 2017 election. We didn’t quite make it; I think things would be different in 2023 if we had.
Here’s the thing: if you want global trade, with wealth spreading over vast majority of “normal” people in the world, then here in the UK we have to get a lot lot poorer – you know this. Commentators here, including me, hope we will be somewhere near the top of the pile. But what about your siblings, your children – how will they fare in the global world? Obviously some here have amassed generational wealth and they can ensure that that trickles down, to their descendants.
There will still be, make no mistake, the thin layer at the top creaming off large sums – you’ve already seen this in the past few years! Some because of talent, but a lot due to criminality, corruption and contacts. I will never be in that layer, so I’d like a kinder, fairer country, that doesn’t allow global companies to shift jobs abroad, import cheap labour and treat humans as consumer units. Yes, I’m asking for Utopia, right? We won’t get that in or out of the EU.
Also, I’ve been married to an Italian for over 20 years. I have to stand in a different queue now when we visit? Fair enough.
(And I haven’t even started on climate issues – only so much doom I can cope with on a Sunday!)
Thanks @TI and @TA and all contributors – making this a great read every week!
Boris Johnson is currently saying that its a good idea for Ukraine to join the EU. I wonder why he doesn’t want Ukraine to negotiate its own trade deals and have all the other benefits of being outside the EU. Why does he dislike the Ukraine so much. Why would the hero of Brexit want to wish ill for Ukraine. Could it all be just a load of lies.
Before Brexit I was what, as an adult, I’ve always thought myself to be, a happy realist. Now, albeit one of the 48.1%, I’m still a happy realist.
To varying degrees, those whose posts here evidence their unhappiness (sorry but that includes you @TI) probably have aims that are unrealistic.
> With the numpty-wing of the Tory party already calling for income tax cuts just months after the Truss fuss,
Haaalllloooo – she’s baaaaack
Such a bear that when you borrow money for your tax cuts before cutting spending you get to put up with the instinctive views of the lenders, which is that your bonkers, so they charge the moron premium 😉 Don’t want to listen to economic orthodoxy? Don’t ask ’em to lend you money for your harebrained unorthodoxy is a damn good start, He who pays the piper calls the tune, Lizzo.
Not much that can be done about Brexit now, mate, but there’s still time to spike this the obvious turf-rolling for the mendacious Pied Piper Bozza Comeback/tribute band. SOSDD.
I sorta hear you on the freedom axis, but as far as personal economics, I am not so sure. But I had already earned pretty much all the money I will ever earn by 2016 and shovelled the slight majority of it in international equites like you keep telling us to. So while I still don’t think the B word was the greatest thing since sliced bread, I am not sure I am feeling quite the level of your burn. Mind you, if the AI is collecting the general sentiment, I’d say it’s with you. OTOH maybe the AI knows it’s you. If Barry Blimp asks the same perhaps the AI will give him all sunlit uplands and a shining city on the hill
@ermine — I’m richer personally because of Brexit (in GBP terms) and I expect this to continue.
This isn’t about my finances.
I suppose GBP matters much more for us now moving abroad is so much more of a ball ache for most.
(Again, I have the assets to golden visa into the EU as well as other options anyway. Shockingly, my political views are not all about me, again. 😉 )
@Boltt – no I’m not a tax resident. For that I would need to be a permanent resident I believe. And no idea about tax rates, though I believe there far, far fewer of the ‘tax advantages’ (aka ISAs and pensions) that the UK has. It’s not some sort of tax arbitrage scam. Just securing more options for my children.
I think you’re referring more to a Golden Visa type scheme which doesn’t apply to me as I secured my privilege pre-Brexit.
Thanks Brod, I didn’t realise it was possible to “bank/preserve” rights without being a permanent resident before the deadline.
“House prices fell for the fifth month in a row in January…” hardly newsworthy since we were celebrating 10 consecutive months of property value increases as recently as May 2022, and even then, there were greater runs pre-2016
https://www.independent.co.uk/money/house-prices-record-high-growth-b2081685.html
… still, house price falls are probably a direct consequence of Brexit too 😉
Read the headline so skipped the usual drivel and went straight to the weekend reading. Thanks for these great links. Then went by the comments as that will be full of more of the same. I’m afraid you can’t accept that the first thing needed for markets to succeed is democracy. We won in 2016 and after three and a half years of hell (created by whining losers) this was reaffirmed in 2019. If you had just accepted it and not cut off your nose to spite your face we may have been in a better place.
“If I can’t have my country as I want it then nobody will!”
If remain had won would chaos created by leavers have been tolerated? I think not.
@London a long time ago, Haha yes maybe a bit, or just pleasantly surprised that my cunning tech-biased asset plan hasn’t imploded yet!
@TBDW, Interesting on the Russell 2000. Good to hear things are going well – could be we will see all boats rise on the tide this year, if inflation gets under check.
@E&G, fair enough, I get the point that the hit to the economy caused by Brexit is not such that one can directly attribute a personal impact to it. Even though we all in aggregate experience the potholes in the road (are they there in my road by chance or because there isn’t the money to fix them?) or the increasing difficulty in accessing healthcare (is the A&E wait due to underfunding or because there was a major road accident locally a little earlier?)
But readers of Monevator should all be very aware of the compound interest effect. Over time the fairly modest annual shortfall in the economy will compound to put us much further behind where we ought to be.
I find it odd how a number of people express a desire how leavers should just move on. Firstly one can imagine the counter factual had remain ‘won’…would Messr’s farage, mogg, gove etc have shut up? Secondly our ongoing relationship with continental Europe will be omnipresent forever. It’s called geographical proximity.
If you asked almost any economists, business leaders or politicians in a moment of rare honesty, what is the easiest lever to pull to increase growth and therefore increase funds to pay for public services the answer would be to rejoin the single market.
And I say that as someone who sat on the fence due to the technical sovereignty + immigration argument and still would on a re-run.
But the economic arguments were blindingly obvious to anyone who understood. Unfortunately a lot of people didn’t and were, candidly, lied to by politicians such as Michael Gove .
“We can take back the billions we give to the EU, the money which is squandered on grand parliamentary buildings and bureaucratic follies, and invest it in science and technology, schools and apprenticeships.”
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/michael-gove-why-i-m-backing-brexit/
The article is quite compelling reading. Much of it is technically correct but in practice bullsh*t.
The huge irony is that now the brexiteers are running the show we continue to totally muck up immigration. Presumably migration of 0.5m last year from non-eu nationals, a very large amount through universities is not what those who voted for brexit for immigration reasons thought would happen!
The economics will likely necessitate a much closer relationship with the EU than Brexiteers want. It’s hard though to envisage a rejoin, unless the wheels properly fall off in the UK as the conditions likely imposed to constrain the Perfidious Albion perception would be worse than the deal we had.
EU is a political union – there has never been any historical example of monetary union without fiscal union and that means political union. In a nutshell that’s the strongest argument for Brexit.
But it’s also the case that outside of the warmth of the EU, the door is shut and life’s harder, colder and poorer. So us Brits have to work harder to make up for that fact that we’re out of the EU. And so fair, as I entirely predicted, we are completely failing to do so.
We could turn it around in a decade or so, if politicians started to be honest, levelled with the electorate and started making some serious efforts to boost short, medium and long term productivity with the population accepting that living standards are unlikely to improve for a while. Energy self sufficiency from an economic, geopolitic, and climatic perspective needs to be a top-3 priority. Bugger all chance of that – the next election will largely be fought on who will give a few more sweeties to stop the NHS falling over.
I’m a regular reader and lurker, but thought I’d add my two cents.
Like others who have commented above, I also am a EU citizen, long term UK resident (since 2001 working and paying my taxes here). Brexit has had a tremendous negative impact in my desire to continue to live in this country. For professional and tax/financial reasons, I am still in London, and will continue to work here for at least 2-3 more years. At that point I expect to liquidate my UK assets (bar my DC pension, which I can’t touch yet) and move to EU land.
The added barriers and forced divergence with Europe that Brexit entails can only take the UK further from where I want to be, both politically and economically. For all the talk of restoring Britain’s place in the world, it has become more insular and isolated than it has ever been, growing slower than all its neighbours and jumping at any chance to stay politically relevant (which will force it to spend a higher % of GDP in weapons and foreign influence/aid than most other countries – cue another drag to our finances).
Additionally, the former pragmatism and practical realism of the british political class has been replaced with an american-style brand of hysteric demagogues, extremism and, quite frankly, embarrassing incompetence.
It is possible that a new batch of politicians come and take advantage of the current shambles, as well as the growing sentiment that diverging from our closest and biggest trading market was a mistake, but that will take more time that I am willing to wait. And the hit to the UK economy will not be reversed in my lifetime anyway.
Now, of course I am only a single data point. However, I can’t be (and I am not) the only one! When people say that ‘the full impact of Brexit’ is still to come, I think of this permanent vicious circle of toxic politics, lower productivity, lower growth, and the trickle of highly paid professionals that will continue to emigrate and take their assets, tax income and contributions out of Britain, for years to come, as their circumstances permit.
Like the man in the video linked in the article says, it is a “generational thing” (he means that it will take a generation for the impact to be seen… which ironically is the only thing he could have said with which I agree)
I’m firmly in the 50-something group. I thought it was insane, I think it is insane and I am certainly outspoken about it. However this has lost me nearly all of my UK friends in consequence.
There is a kind of grieving process that some Leave voters appear to be going through:
1) Denial of reality. This falls into 2 categories. The first is just being delusional. The second is more insidious and the approach taken by many Brexity polititions who still have skin in the game (JRM is a prime example) and involves blatant lies about what has happened to the economy.
2) Yes there are problems, but these problems are down to (variously) Brexit not being done properly (the people have been betrayed), the EU for punishing us (despite us holding all the cards), Remoaners for scuppering Brexit. And probably the fault of immigrants as well.
3) Realisation that what was promised was a fantasy and you have been duped.
Those reaching step 3 is increasing all the time, but not in such numbers that a political party dare present a policy to join the SM, which as @Seeking Fire has said is the obvious way to boost our economy.
@Pendle Witch, I agree with you about the risks of cheap foreign labour, but disagree that leaving the EU has in any way protected UK workers from this risk. The EU was a buffer against that risk, with many on the hard right in this country calling for scrapping of workers rights.
As for Teresa may, she backed herself into a corner by announcing that we would leave the SM and CU. That was a disastrous mistake as it guaranteed a hard Brexit. It was a complete fantasy to think the EU would grant cherry picked benefits of SM membership to a country not willing to be part of the SM.
I am a dyed-in-the-wool Remainer and am enjoying the upsurge in negative Brexit comment, statistics, etc. I read it all assiduously with growing delight.
However, I sometimes feel I am being negative for the sake of some kind of revenge. Reliving a past defeat to look for reassurance that I was right all along may be gratifying but in the end it is not very helpful.
I think we should accept that there is very little prospect of re-joining the EU any time soon and we possibly never will. Maybe we should concentrate on establishing the best possible trading arrangements with our greatest trading partner. That is a difficult enough task and would be time better spent.
TP2
@TP2, you are right that it is unhelpful to spend too much energy complaining about what might have been, when the decision has been made. (That doesn’t mean stopping doing the analysis though). And more useful to look for ways in which the current relationship could be improved.
Unfortunately the current government are obstinately set against that. The EU have made it clear many times that they would be very receptive to discussions about SPS alignment (things like food standards and veterinary checks) which would massively reduce the friction which underlies the Northern Ireland problems. The UK do not seem to have responded constructively, at least at headline political level, and it would no doubt need proper negotiation involving a bit of give as well as take.
For ordinary citizens it is difficult to see what we can do, except wait until the next election and vote out the Conservatives. We can’t tell what Labour would achieve, but at least they don’t carry an influential party-within-a-party opposing anything but the hardest and most destructive trade barriers.
@Jonathan B, I find this resistance to SPS alignment very difficult to understand. Is it because the government secretly wishes to lower food standards so that we can import cheaper food? They claim not, but who knows? Or is it just for dogmatic reasons? “We will not be dictated to over our food standards”. Are they doing it because they want the difficulties in NI to perpetuate? A warped but useful distraction.
Whatever the reasons, our food exports to the EU have to meet the EU’s standards anyway and divergence is just going to increase the red tape for those exporters.
SPS alignment strikes me as a no-brainer and Starmer will likely do that very quickly after he gets in.
I do find it very sad to have seen so many hard-working EU nationals leaving. My next-door neighbour was one of them. A German seed investor/venture capitalist. Been in the UK for several years, with a young family born and growing up here. He brought a lot of investment into the UK, but (along with his wife) just felt totally disillusioned by the animosity to foreigners during the referendum campaign and left a few months after the vote. I have met up with him a few times since as his firm still has investments here, but there is no intention to make any more UK investments apart from funding rounds for the existing companies.
There are pro/cons to Brexit (as with everything else), but I’m sorry to say that ‘The Investor’ just sounds like a petulant child having a tantrum. The UK has many economic woes, but 99% of them are the result of structural problems decades in the making and nothing to do with leaving or staying in the EU. Brexit was the outcome of democratic vote – accept it – and please grow up.
@3MintTea — Another excellent analysis by a Brexit supporter! 🙂
This superficial lack of understanding at least had the benefit of no refuting evidence – and perhaps a bit of political naivety – in 2016. But as detailed above and in these comments, the results are in.
Nobody has said Britain didn’t have problems before Brexit. That is as strawman.
But Brexit has made things worse. This is very easy for a large majority of people to understand given the data that’s come in, including some (but clearly not all) Leave supporters.
Incidentally, from memory the EU outgrew the other member states from its entry in the 1970s until our exit. We were doing fine economically as far as being in the EU was concerned.
If you voted for it for political reasons and are happy to pay the economic/knock-on social cost, fair enough.
If you voted for it for economic reasons you were wrong then and you’re wrong now.
p.s. Oh, forgot to add that you also write:
This is deeply ironic given that c.50-60% of the Leave campaigning showcased “structural problems decades in the making and nothing to do with leaving or staying in the EU” as the the reason to vote Leave (with some political hand-waving and/or xenophobia on the side).
I wasn’t going to bother commenting on this one because I knew what to expect. Insults from the remainers, I’m leaving the country becausec I can blah blah, fell out with my friends blah blah and even the if you don’t like it leave the forum, how childish. I voted Brexit for personal reasons but never once criticised friends who didn’t. It is what it is. Ten years time it won’t matter.
@Griff — I said Brexit is producing economic consequences and they are negative, ergo it was a bad idea.
I agree that we all then conflate and extend that to questions about why and what this vote was for, but both sides certainly do that as you can see above.
What none of you Brexit supporters are doing is saying “look, the UK economy is surging because we’re free of the red tape of Brussels” or “look, the regions are leveling up and benefiting from the curbing of EU migration” or “look, the NHS is in great shape and certainly not riven with strikes because, while it was certainly held back by Covid, we have £350m a week to spend on the NHS“.
The reason there’s none of that is because there’s nothing good like that to say. Even when Jacob Rees-Mogg tried to find good stuff to shout about, the list looked like a parody.
Fine, you own your vote, I respect that. Own the consequences too, rather than saying we’re in the wrong for questioning the consequences, or calling us childish because we didn’t make a bad decision seven years ago and earnestly would like to repair the damage caused by that bad decision in the future.
10 years? For now. 20 years in ten years.
As I say in the article, there will be growth. There will be new companies. IT WON’T BE BECAUSE OF BREXIT. I am triple underlining this now, so nobody can come back in ten years and say (as some already do) “you said it would be a Mad Max wasteland”.
No, I said it would be economically damaging (slower growth, slower investment, worse living standards and public services as a result) over many years, which will compound.
Which is what we’re seeing.
Fine agreed we have political sovereignty. So far it’s delivered widespread political incompetence, the judiciary being branded ‘the enemies of the people’, a liar who got thrown out for serially lying even by a party of toadies, and shortest-lived Prime Minister ever who DIY-ed a mini financial crisis.
I preferred life under the ‘yoke’ of the EU frankly.
I might have expected some pros and cons a few years after the vote but it’s not even a fair fight. There’s no back and forth to be had, because there’s absolutely no pros to offset the cons. Not even immigration reduced for those who wanted it.
People aren’t recanting because they’re people, with confirmation biases etc. Not because they were right.
And of course I have my biases. But I also have the evidence to go alongside my biases.
Bring all the economic benefits of Brexit we’ve seen here to offset all the negatives I’ve listed. To offset a 5%+ reduction in ongoing GDP, collapse in investment, cratering in funding for science.
No? Crown stamps on pint glasses? Nice one.
The Investor
First of all, thank you for your reply.
My own possible niave belief is if the remainers ensconced in the government had accepted the vote and assisted the government in its handling of Brexit then perhaps we would have got a better deal instead of the one that does damage to both sides. For me, it was sovereignty I was voting for. Unfortunately it works out that our own elected representatives are probably incapable of running the country and are as self serving as the EU lot. Doesnt help having the yanks interfering. Would I Vote for Brexit again probably 50/50 or even 48/52.
@Griff, “My own possible niave belief is if the remainers ensconced in the government had accepted the vote and assisted the government in its handling of Brexit then perhaps we would have got a better deal…”
The irony is that most of the problems with getting a deal out of Brexit that might work came from the ultra group of ERG Conservatives. Not a remainer in sight.
When reality hits the fan and the economic data is spread all over the open mouthed faces of the right wing Erg types, personally I do have a little chuckle. Honestly though I could crush a grape over the sadness of it all. Embarrassment and annoyance are my feelings as you stand in the non member queue waiting to get that bloomin passport stamped. What a waste of time, money and opportunity; so so sad.
Can’t we bring the Accumulator in to referee this – seems to be getting out of hand – although I doubt he’d want to, he sensibly seems to keep well out of it all – very wise. I hope he doesn’t come out though (as a closet Brexiteer!) as I for one wouldn’t want to see him Alan Sugar style “fired” from his part-time blogging job! (He’s only just FIRE’d himself for God’s sake – and he needs something to keep him off the streets!)
Being slightly serious for a minute – and I’m not giving my thoughts on the “B” word (on the sidelines on this topic) – I can’t see what any of this is achieving. You, the authors, set the topics and I can see the point of constructive debate but this seems to generate a bit more than that much of the time – sort of destructive arguments and, from what I have seen, it’s only on this particular subject really.
It just seems to wind people up and set otherwise like minded people against each other and, FWIW, it’s never going to change anything anyway is it – however many people on here rant and rave – for or against it or fall out and say they have lost friends/family etc. over it as well – it’s not going to make one iota of difference is it? (I mean it’s not going to change anyone’s mind is it – they’ll continue to believe what they believe, probably until death?) Whatever side you’re on – it’s like the son of a serial murderer trying to convince everyone his father was a good bloke at heart – just not going to happen really is it?
Whatever we may think of it – it’s happened and there is little we, without the power, can do to change that democratic decision until such time as the politicians decide it is.
This is a fantastic blog – with its very highly held reputation on the internet – but does this subject really do it any favours? What do others think? I am fairly new to investing and I know it doesn’t do anything for me – like calling each other all the time – not sensible discussion/debate. In fact when I saw this topic again I went off to read some of the other many good finance & investing blogs as I didn’t want to be involved – which is a shame as Monevator is brilliant at what it does 99.9% of the time with extremely good knowledgeable writers.
But then I thought – isn’t a blog meant to attract like minded readers who come for sound information and discussion/debate in a “friendly” atmosphere – as well as readers helping each other out with tips and our own thoughts – without continually shouting each other down about who is “right” or “wrong” over the old “B” debate. So I thought I would give my observation from the sidelines looking on at it all really.
Monevator says it’s “Motivation for armchair investors” and that it is “a personal blog about money: making, saving, growing, and sometimes even spending it.” This topic does seem a little bit remote from that and more political in nature really (admittedly due to the economics it does affect investing/finances but so do many other things but they are not written about so much or cause such divisiveness/contempt/hate among readers.)
I thought that a blog was written by those with a love and affinity for the subject, as well as great knowledge, to help others without such to learn/benefit and better themselves whilst providing an income for the authors in return by doing something they truly enjoy. I can’t see how this topic does that.
It just sometimes gets to be a bit like the same drunken loudmouths arguing over some “stupid” point in the local pub all the time – that everybody tries to give a wide berth to – before it spills over into violence and blood. It spoils the atmosphere and brings it down. IMO Monevator is best when it does what it excels at and that’s being the best source of information on the internet for investing, money and finance? I don’t know how this sort of heavy pointless discussion enhances that.
I know it’s said that this blog is mainly about passive investing and active investing articles are not favoured as it’s off message (or not in the best interests of most, less experienced, investors) but I feel, as a passive investor, this would not be as harmful and off putting to them as all this “B” stuff as long as it was labelled up accordingly.
Just saying constructively that’s all, how I feel about this topic – just my opinion (tho’ wish I hadn’t said it now – I don’t want to be banned or anything!!!)
@Dave: Fair comment, well put. Would be interesting to put it to a vote.
Dave -rather agree but it is the Investors blog so he can set the parameters any way he wishes
Perhaps all the passive investors here having sewn up their investment policies ie once Asset Allocation has been set are able to and should do nothing and therefore have lots of extra time on their hands to fill-sometimes with political debate @ Monevator!?
One other rather sad thing I also notice more of is the disappearance of losers consent-a vital fact for a democracy to work
Another sigh of our troubled times?
xxd09
@Dave — Cheers for your thoughts, and welcome to the blog.:) Though you probably won’t like the reply I’m about to give, nor the fact that there will be more Brexit related articles in the future. (I try not to do one more than every three months or so, and happily things have calmed down enough for that).
Firstly, as you say it’s my blog and as @xxd09 says I’ll write as I see fit. There’ll be no votes or anything like that. 🙂 I don’t mean that petulantly. I mean that the time and effort involved in stepping up and giving your opinion every week for 17 years is considerable. I am not going to change what I write about based on some readers not liking it — to state the obvious the editorial opinion of Leave supporting readers would rank near the bottom of my concerns. 🙂
Besides, as I opened this piece with, we lost thousands of readers back in the early days of Brexit. It was worth it and I’d do it again.
This is a principle for me, it’s not a marketing effort. (If we were going to write about what was popular for traffic / made more money, it’d be active investing every day and one article on index funds a year as a Christmas special. 😉 )
I won’t ‘out’ @TA more than he’s said publicly on this blog before, but know that he’s broadly of just the same mind as me and he’s described these posts as “important” before. The main reasons he doesn’t hazard a contribution I’d say is lack of interest in spending his time in a mostly futile debate. It’s not that he believes the debate is futile because ‘they won’. Rather because they won’t listen.
This post lost a slightly higher than average subscribers; nothing dramatic. As an editorial strategy the best that can be said for it is it’s polarizing, I suppose, and so helps define the audience.
Brexit is making everyone in this country poorer. It’s highly relevant from that perspective.
True, I think it’s enriched me, but that’s because it’s turned the Pound into a border-line emerging market-style currency and increased volatility across UK assets. This was particularly the case a few years ago, but we saw it was still alive in the Truss experiment (none of which would have happened without Brexit — not the desperation, not the quanta of debt, and not the instant market disquiet at loony UK politicians, who have squandered much of its confidence over seven years). The volatility has proven pretty tradeable for someone who’s spending currency is GBP. I wouldn’t describe that as a triumph for Brexit. 😉
One enormous tell in the people saying “don’t talk about it, the vote is done” (apart from that they’re nearly always Leave supporters, obviously) is as I said earlier a political naivety.
There was copious polling and comment at the time — even boasting from the likes of Dominic Cummings –- that the Leave vote had successfully mobilized a typically apolitical cohort of the electorate. And I have really seen that in these comments over the years.
In the early days Leavers were cross the discussion was continuing after even a couple of months. They clearly had no idea of the constitutional explosion they’d just initiated or the many years of political pain ahead. Even after we’ve lived through it, you still find many saying somehow we should have just got together with a gracious EU and somehow create the best of all possible worlds (from a Leaver perspective). This is not what anyone who understands either politics or trade negotiations would say, ever.
To the infamous boon to the ardent Brexiteers — who are in contrast deeply political animals.
They campaigned for 30+ years about the crimes of the EU, nearly all of which were hot air and the rest (to my eyes) were acceptable defeats in a quid pro quo that everyone needs to suffer from time to time in a relationship. (You think European leftist factions were happy with all the free marketism the Brits brought to the EU over the years? No, some of them were not but they didn’t condemn the project for it).
They then sensed a weakness in both Cameron and the electorate in the uncertainty of the post-GFC years and then they threw everything — from truths (sovereignty) to distortions (commonplace) to lies (notable) to hitherto out-of-bounds (Farage standing in front of Nazi-inspired posters) — to win their vote. Which they did by a tiny margin.
As political creatures, they know the fight is not over. When they say Remainers should shut up and accept 100 years outside the EU, it’s not from a principled position. It’s because politics is always fluid, and the price of their win is eternal vigilance.
They know they wouldn’t ‘shut up’ either. They say it for the political messaging, not because it’s true.
Previous contentious things we don’t argue about constantly are either settled (right for women to vote) and/or obviously beneficial (universal education) or they’re considered too difficult to bring into the public domain (the death penalty).
Things that aren’t entirely settled are forever up for grabs. Membership of the EU would be such given the narrow margin of victory and the fact that if the vote was held today there’s a majority for Remain anyway. But it’s also even more so a question because it’s self-evident there’s no benefits.
Crudely, vote Labour and you might get more public services at the cost of higher taxes. Vote Tories (the old competent lot) and you might get tighter budgets and lower taxes but some cutbacks in the State.
Vote Brexit and you get nothing except being reassured — often by some of the least trustworthy politicians in our lifetime — that you’ve seen off some vague political threat in the future, for which your country has made a massive price in terms of individual rights and freedoms and also economic cost.
Of course it’s unsettled.
Which is a big reason why I’ll regularly — but relatively rarely — feature it here.
The other is I’ve never witnessed such a political charade in my lifetime, and I consider it important to do my part to bear witness. It’s damaging and people need to be reminded it’s damaging. There was a huge consequence to that national moment of recklessness.
Cheers!
@Dave, I appreciate you are someone who has tired of Brexit comments. And many of us wish we could have a way of magicking the whole thing away.
But it makes no more sense to suggest that Brexit and its implications are not a proper topic for Monevator, than to suggest the same about the surge in energy prices. This is a blog for ordinary people who want to learn about personal investing, and if it isn’t relevant to discuss a major factor which affects the main economy in which those investments are made it is hard to see how an intelligent discussion could be had. But as you say, it is @TI’s fiefdom, for better (mostly) or worse.
@TI – massive applause for your extended response #92.
I invest so that I and my family can life good lives in the UK. The country of my birth and a country I broadly like. I have lived elsewhere and enjoyed it, but have also always enjoyed the return to ‘home’. Anyone deliberately making it harder for me to invest and live a good life in the UK is not on my side.
I do not want to see environmental and social protections trashed (the avowed aim of many Brexit sponsors – Britannia Unchained anyone?). I do not want to see the NHS slowly privatised and to be dependent on self-financed healthcare in my old age. I do not want to see a good education progressively become the preserve of the relatively wealthy. I do not want to see the opportunities for commercial exploitation of the great research capabilities of our universities wither, because we have gone all Minford and decided manufacturing and agriculture are so last century.
Yes, there were valid reasons to vote for Brexit, but to do so, you had to think the immense economic damage was worth the prize. Since the ‘sovereignty’ is largely an illusion in the the modern multilateral world, as has been repeatedly demonstrated for the UK as a small country, I am doubtful it was.
For expressing these views I was insultingly called a “citizen of nowhere” by a PM determined to push through a hard Brexit to appease an internal Tory party extreme group. The good of the country and its citizens was not even in the room.
Brexit has had a profound effect on the purpose of this site – investing to lead a good life. It won’t go away, it cannot be ignored, and debating how we can deal with the fallout is going to be the stuff of debate for years to come. How could it be otherwise?
“@3MintTea — Another excellent analysis by a Brexit supporter! ”
Actually I voted against Brexit – but I’m revolted by the diatribe and casual slurs of racism from people like you in the Remain camp, as much as that in the Leave camp. Brexit has brought out the worst in society.
In Finance I’ve found that the more I learn, the less I know. You’re clearly well informed regarding personal finance, but your views on economics & politics should probably be taken with a pinch of salt. Distinguished economists are frequently wrong on their economic theses, your views are likely even less valid.
A lot has been written regarding the older generation and their Brexit vote. But very little regarding why they voted that way, apart from “Little Englander” and the assessment from that well known national treasure, “you take the picture I’ll take the credit” David Attenborough, who summed it up from his sixty-year-old ivory tower in one word, uneducated.
As far as I can discern, those living in cities and big towns derived much more from Europe than those living in rural, coastal, and peripheral no-go city areas (excluding farming subsidies) where their standard of living diminished each year, especially for the retired. The fact that the majority didn’t have an Oxbridge first, didn’t help, neither did eight years of low interest rates, diminishing government resources, selling homes to fund social care, and watching grandchildren accrue huge educating debt, many felt abandoned, and voted accordingly.
Government planning pre and post vote was non-existent, bordering on farce. Perhaps one lesson is not to disregard the older, uneducated vote, which so far has been ignored.
Agree or not, the decision has been made, but take comfort that as it stands, the NHS will soon put paid to those who dared to want a better life and facilities, in line with some of those in eastern Europe.
I’d rather spend some of my time eliminating the 780 plus unelected members of the House of Frauds, none of whom has a working back ground in manual or skilled labour, and second only in size to the Chinese National People’s Congress.
@3MintTea — Fair enough then, a not particularly substantive comment from a Remainer then. Followed by another one. i.e. Still no facts refuting my economic points. As per all the non-Remainer replies in this thread. Just some emotive comments about how many Leavers/Remainers are emotive.
You’re entitled of course to your view on my economic/political nous, and I can certainly follow your logic.
However I’d note that pretty much everything I said would happen to the economy and politics post-Referendum has happened (exceptions — much more ongoing immigration than I expected and I suppose I thought we might see more of a hit to the City specifically) and pretty much nothing has happened that Leave predicted, from easy trade deals to Brexit dividends to a funding bounty for the NHS.
So anonymous bloke on the Internet I may be, but I know who I’d rather listen to versus the tiny handful of economists who had anything positive to say about Brexit. The forecast-to-evidence trail to-date would settle it.
@old_eyes — Cheers.
@all — Thanks for the comments. Contrary to the expressed views of a few, I think you’d have to go look hard to find a more reasonable discussion about Brexit than we have here. Obviously it’s massively tilted towards Remain, but firstly so is the evidence now, and secondly I don’t see all the abuse that some claim to see.
For instance, yes, I think racism was part of the Leave vote. So I state that.
Do I think all Leavers were racist? Not at all.
I believe most racists voted Leave, but I don’t believe most Leavers are racist.
It’s not really complicated, and an inability to understand it doesn’t exactly underwrite the continual objection to the widespread (Remainer) view that some Leavers struggle to understand complicated issues.
(Again — *some*.)
Somewhat OT but
> the time and effort involved in stepping up and giving your opinion every week for 17 years is considerable.
Chapeau, sir. And as someone who used some of the guidance to become one of those FIRE gits that jar our Mr Hunt off so much, thank you!
What Ermine said, in spades.
Fully concur with The Investor. We, the metropolitan elite, are sick & tired of these racist Leaver peasants complaining because we offshored their jobs & bought up all their houses for holiday homes. Don’t they understand we need to stay in Europe so I can take Archibald skiing at half-term? And quite why these illiterate Leaver morons believe they are entitled to a basic wage or roof over their head is beyond me. If they’re worried about immigrants taking their jobs and houses, then simply earn more money!! If you ask me, the sooner we remove their right to democracy & self-government the better.
@The Remoaner — That *might* be funny if any of it were germane.
Offshoring has little to nothing to do with being in the EU (see the US) and being outside of the EU if anything makes it more likely. (Fewer protections). Basic wage prospects have gone down outside of the EU, because our economy will be smaller.
The chances of a roof over their heads might have gone up with lower immigration (though I doubt it, as we have a supply problem and it’s increased the cost of housebuilding due to fewer skilled EU tradespeople) — and anyway immigration has gone up, as I noted above, so it’s moot.
The EU is democratic — that it isn’t is perhaps the biggest Leaver lie of all.
Is it perfectly democratic? No, and neither is ours (ask the Scottish). Do we always get what we want? No, that’s democracy. Is it democratic to say we’d like to vote to rejoin the EU for all our sake? Entirely.
I do agree that leaving the EU has made taking holidays to Europe more hassle though. Congratulations, you must be so proud.
Indeed those Brexit wins just keep on coming:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/uk-trade-deficit-with-eu-hits-record-as-brexit-curtails-exports
“Brexit means” the permanent degradation of the British economy and its influence on the world stage.
“Brexiters” not “Brexiteers”, please! They are very far removed from swashbuckling heroes.
Correction to my earlier comment as both plans are Plan A, so:
Plan A (step 1): Move to Canada under the skills program – check
Plan A (step 2): Stay in Canada – check
In the past 12 months we lost $24,000 on the GBP to CAD currency conversion. At least the 2022 inflation rate in Canada is only 6.3%.
Where we are at the moment:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/23/labour-options-closer-ties-europe-norway-style-deal
No good options left: bearing in mind both that rejoining/returning to the EU is now (regrettably) firmly off the table (even by the Lib Dems FFS!), and (tragically) also, in this general election, seemingly outside Overton’s Window of acceptable debate.
Without at least full membership of the Common Market I can’t see how any meaningful part of the £100 bn -140 bn p.a. of lost GNP and more than £40 bn p.a. of vanished tax revenues (and rising fast) can ever be recovered.
A bit silly to post on this old thread but here I am.
I am a Bulgarian who lived in the UK for almost 15 years. Studied at Cambridge, had good jobs in Cambridge and London, started a family. Left the UK in 2019 to go back to Bulgaria. Brexit was not the main reason but contributed a bit to my decision. If I am to pick a UK-related reason for my decision the state of the child care would be a more important one than Brexit. In Bulgaria people like to slag off the state nurseries we have here but only because most of them haven’t lived in the UK. To elaborate my point – the Bulgarian state nurseries are free to use and are mostly situated in purpose-build campuses. Yes, campuses. Because most of them have large dedicated open spaces, separated from the neighbourhood through fences.
But this point is probably of little interest to most readers of this blog.
My main reason to write this post is to address the “low taxes” point some posters make. Income tax in Bulgaria is 10%. It is a flat tax – you could be Bill Gates you still would be paying 10%. Actually, if you are Bill Gates you probably would pay less even if you don’t use an elaborate scheme since dividends are taxed at 5%. Also, you don’t pay any tax on income from stock/ETF trades – as long as the stock/ETF is traded on a regulated segment of an EU exchange. A lot of US companies are traded on these exchanges via ADR/CREST equivalents so you are not limited to EU stocks and ETFs. So low taxes is a bit of a moot point in favour of the UK – at least for me. Oh, by the way, there is also 0% tax on pensions. UK managed, actually, to spoil this for UK pensioners as it included various limitations in the tax treaty with Bulgaria essentially keeping the right to tax UK pensions paid to retirees in Bulgaria. Which is also one more reason why for me “UK” does not evoke “low taxes”.
Anyway, coming back to Brexit.
Personally, I think Brexit was a bad decision. But I feel no passion about it. I got my UK passport before leaving the UK so I am not affected. Neither are my children. I have nice memories of the UK. I think it harmed itself but, luckily, not in a drastic way (e.g. there is no civil war or some other major catastrophic event). Would I like it to rejoin the EU? I personally think – no.
You see, I believe in the EU as a political project. I hope that one day EU will become a scaled-up version of Switzerland. Well-armed and able to stand on its own. I am not saying it should be isolationist. It should allow countries like Ukraine or Moldova to join. But it should be prepared to turn down a UK application if it entails another go of cherry-picking (“we want rebates, opt-outs and opt-ins” etc.). If the UK is to join the EU it should join the Euro, too. It is an essential part of the European project. If the UK is not prepared to do that (and I expect this to be the prevailing mood in the UK even in 20 years) – well, let’s stay separate.
Thank you for sharing @nick12. I hope the UK sees sense and rejoins and that, when it does so, it is a fully fledged embrace of the European project to secure for the continent peoples’ peace and common prosperity through shared values and institutions, a single market with a single currency, and shared mechanisms for investment to build the infrastructure for the future.
Another bitter Brexit ‘dividend’:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/yorkshire-building-society-wont-give-me-my-100000/
I really hope that this man gets his money out from YBS. Five years’ of grief and anxiety. It’s pure Brexit Franz Kafka.
Compare and contrast with the treatment when rich and powerful “politically exposed persons” are involved in a banking issue:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/30/money-trail-questions-over-deposed-bangladeshi-elites-400m-uk-property-empire