≡ Menu

Monevator HYP: Second anniversary

The Monevator demo HYP celebrates its second anniversary

Time flies when you’re running a high-yield share portfolio that – by design – you only look at once every few months or so.

Just one year ago my demo HYP was celebrating its first baby steps.

And those steps had been of the clumsy and stumbling kind.

The portfolio’s value was down 6.6% (ignoring income) since I’d had the bright idea to put £5,000 into it back in May 2011. The wider market was down by roughly the same amount, too, and so was the basket of three investment trusts that I picked for a second benchmark.

A year and a bit on, however, and things are looking far brighter. That’s share investing for you!

Below I’ll report how the terrible twos weren’t so terrible for my demo portfolio, which has grown nicely over the last 12 months.

Before that, I’ll share a few links to answer some of the questions you may have.

You can also read and bookmark all the articles about this HYP.

Note: I stress again this is a demo HYP. It is not a reflection of my entire investment strategy or asset allocation – it’s a small real money side portfolio created for interest and education for us on Monevator. Please don’t get hung up on the £5,000 invested figure, as that was just what I chose to commit for tracking purposes. In real-life I wouldn’t consider running a HYP like this with less than £20,000 invested, and £50-100,000 would be more like it.

The HYP valuation: Two years (and a bit) in

So where do we stand after year two? That’s the critical question, and sadly I forgot to ask it until four trading days had passed since the anniversary of the last snapshot on 10 May 2012.

What a muppet! I put real money into this demo to make it easier to track, and I keep forgetting to check-in on the anniversaries.

Last year I overcome my forgetfulness by painstakingly recreating the entire portfolio from historical prices and then crosschecking them with a second source.

This year I’m afraid I didn’t have the time. May was just a madly busy month.

So instead, I’m going to report where the portfolio (and the benchmarks) stood at close of play on 16 May 2013. That’s a few days more than a full year.

It’s not a big difference – the UK market moved less than 1% in the interim – but I suppose I can’t now be quite as outraged as The Accumulator gets about sloppy reporting from funds. It’d be a tad hypocritical.

Anyway, here’s where the portfolio stood at the close of 16 May 2013:

Company Price Value Gain/Loss
Aberdeen Asset Management £4.73 £505.62 102.3%
Admiral £12.62 £179.30 -28.3%
AstraZeneca £33.90 £271.49 8.6%
Aviva £3.47 £195.35 -21.9%
BAE Systems £4.06 £308.54 23.4%
Balfour Beatty £2.26 £171.23 -31.5%
BHP Billiton £19.12 £199.33 -20.3%
British Land £6.39 £267.16 6.9%
Centrica £3.87 £306.62 22.7%
Diageo £20.51 £411.57 64.6%
GlaxoSmithKline £17.08 £323.81 29.5%
Halma £5.26 £353.70 41.5%
HSBC £7.49 £284.89 14.0%
Pearson £12.04 £264.67 5.9%
Royal Dutch Shell £22.86 £257.06 2.8%
Scottish & Southern Energy £15.93 £300.48 20.2%
Tate £8.62 £351.85 40.7%
Tesco £3.74 £226.46 -9.4%
Unilever £28.40 £357.39 42.95%
Vodafone £1.97 £291.50 16.6%
£5,828.00 16.6%

Note: The portfolio was purchased on the morning of 6 May 2011, with £250 invested into each of 20 shares. All costs (stamp duty, spreads, and dealing fees) are included.

By the one year mark on 10 May 2012, my invested capital had fallen from £5,000 to £4,670. By 16 May 2013 it had grown back to £5,828.

That means we saw a year-on-year capital gain of roughly 25%.

Looking through the portfolio’s holdings, I still regret picking two insurers, though that’s hindsight speaking. On a brighter note, Tesco had recovered substantially – it was down 22% last year on my initial purchase price. (Since this snapshot it’s fallen back again. Every little helps? Not here!)

The big winner of the year was Aberdeen Asset Management. Its share price doubled on the back of rising markets.

If this portfolio does well over time then critics will say I was lucky to pick shares like Aberdeen. Such criticism is valid, but it’s also missing the point. This is an actively constructed portfolio, not an index fund. It will have a skewed result. That’s the risk you take, and that you’re potentially paid for.

Also I have never seen a portfolio of shares that didn’t show big gaps between the best and worst performers after a couple of years. The same would be true in an market cap weighted index fund, for that matter.

Buckle up! After 5-10 years the gap will between the leader and the laggards in this demo HYP will be several hundred per cent or so.

Benchmark 1: The iShares FTSE 100 tracker

As outlined in my benchmarking article, I will compare the progress of my demo HYP against two alternatives – a cheap ETF, and a trio of investment trusts.

Remember all these returns will be capital returns only, as with the demo HYP.

The ETF benchmark is a hypothetical £5,000 that was invested into 836 shares1 of the iShares FTSE 100 tracking ETF ISF, acquired via Sharebuilder.

As previously discussed, the ETF shares were notionally bought at £5.98 per share. The (tiny) purchase costs were taken into account, and there was no stamp duty to pay.

Here’s where the ETF stood at close of 16 May 2013.

Company Price Value Gain/Loss
iShares FTSE 100 ETF £6.72 £5,614.54 12.3%

Note: Prices from Yahoo.

The ETF has not yet recovered as much as the HYP from its first year fall. Not surprising given the dash for yield we’ve seen in the markets in the past 18 months.

Benchmark 2: A trio of income trusts

I also follow three income investment trusts as an alternative to the HYP.

Again I assumed these were bought via Halifax Sharebuilder, and again I averaged the opening and closing prices on 6 May 2011 to get the initial buy prices. Stamp duty and a penny spread on each trust’s price were factored in.

Here’s where a hypothetical £5,000 pumped into these three trusts stood on 16 May 2013.

Trust Price2 Value Gain/Loss
City of London IT £3.65 £2,000.26 20.0%
Edinburgh IT £5.92 £2,086.25 25.2%
Merchants Trust £4.80 £1,878.14 12.7%
£5,964.65 19.3%

Note: Prices from Yahoo.

Equity income trusts have been on a tear this year – it’s that chasing dividend income theme again. Discounts have closed, and in many cases income trusts have stood at significant premiums to their assets for long periods.

This has boosted the share price return of the trusts over this period, and thus the performance of this basket over the demo HYP. The situation will likely reverse if dividend income goes back out of favour, and the trusts fall to a discount. They will have many shareholdings in common, after all.

I think investment trusts are a good halfway house between being an enthusiast who fancies managing a portfolio of shares, and a passive investor who invests via an ETF or tracker fund.

So far that’s playing out with a superior return for the trusts, even after their management costs.

The trusts offer a more stable return than the DIY portfolio, too. They are more diversified. They also hold a cash buffer to top-up payments in the lean times.

If you want the same safety net for your own portfolio – perhaps because you plan to live off investment income – then you need to build-in your own cash buffers. This will effectively delay when you can start drawing an income by 6-12 months, since you’ll need a tranche of cash to load up your buffers.

Income comparison

So much for capital, what about the all-important income?

  • For the HYP, I simply added up all the dividends I received over the period 11 May 2012 to 10 May 2013.
  • For the hypothetical ETF and trust holdings, I went through the dividend records (via the Digital Look and the iShares website) and added up their payments due over the same time frame.

Here’s what each system generated in income over the year:

2012 2013 Change Purchase yield3 Current yield4
HYP £181.95 £229.19 26.0% 4.6% 3.8%
ETF £155.05 £172.11 11.0% 3.4% 3.1%
Trusts £183.56 £245.52 33.8% 4.9% 4.1%

Note: Yields are rounded to one decimal place.

This is the first full year where all payments made were due to the portfolios, which is why some of the year-on-year gains in income are so large. (Last year’s income figures were subject to a few ex-dividend dates that fell before the investments were made).

This means we can now see exactly what each portfolio paid out in income over the 12 month period.

So far the trusts are doing very well on an income basis, too. We’ll have to see what happens over the longer term.

Needless to say, the current yields on all three portfolios are still much higher than you’d get on bonds or cash.

Finally, while a HYP is an income strategy and I wouldn’t recommend it for total return, I know many of you are curious about how the demo HYP would grow if you reinvested the dividends each year.

That’s a whole new kettle of fish (or more accurately a can of worms) which I’ll look into in a follow-up post.

  1. Well, 835.87 to be precise. Halifax Sharebuilder let’s you buy fractional holdings of shares. All my demo HYP shareholdings are fractional, too. I use the fractional shareholdings in the return calculations. []
  2. I’ve rounded these here for clarity, but have used the exact price in my spreadsheet. []
  3. The last 12 months of income divided by the initial £5,000 invested. []
  4. The last 12 months of income divided by the portfolio value at year end. []
{ 22 comments }

Why your relatives will be glad you’re a DIY investor

close relative of mine has reached retirement age and she needs help with her finances. The situation is not great:

  • A settlement left her with a modest pot that must last her the rest of her life.
  • She now handles her own financial affairs after decades of delegating that trust.
  • While she can shish-kebab a bargain at 20 paces and haggle like a souk trader, she has no experience of the complex financial decisions she now faces. Tripwires are everywhere.
  • She’s terrified of the stock market and sits mostly in cash. Like most people, she can’t equate inflation’s slowly corrosive impact with her eventual ruin.
  • Tentative consultations with financial advisors have taught her enough to be wary.
  • She’s scrambled by a fad-hungry media that treats investing like fashion. The constant switchback of advice leaves her prey to so-called ‘experts’ who offer to make sense of it all.

The reality is she has run out of track. The pot struggles to generate enough income in a low-interest rate world. Inflation is eroding it, but equities are too risky: there’s no crumple zone to absorb a stock market crash.

Spending less is the only emergency lever left to pull (and it’s not like the ambition level was particularly grand to start with). It’s too late to work longer or save more.

DIY investors can help retiring relatives

What a mess

As the holes in the safety net widen and more people are increasingly being left to fend for themselves, DIY investors like us will need to fill in the gaps.

It’s an unnerving responsibility. My own retirement is many years away, so plenty of the details can be left to ferment in a tank marked ‘the distant future’.

But in this role, precision guidance is needed. My relative’s problems need definite answers but, as it turns out, a caring amateur can do a better job than a careless professional…

As I excavated the stack of valuation statements, brochures, and key feature documents, I uncovered a haphazard clutch of active funds and insurance bonds full of stuff that my relative would never have chosen for herself.

It turns out she is 20% in equities. Plus every shade of corporate bond right down to junk, distressed companies, futures, and the same high-yielding UK blue chips in fund after fund – HSBC, BP, Glaxo, Vodafone, Royal Dutch Shell, BAT, and so on.

The usual suspects staff the top 10 holdings in no less than eight of her funds! That’s more redundancy than in the Greek civil service.

The incoherence of it all makes me angry. There’s no strategy, no sense of an architect who has carefully designed an investment machine that operates in all weathers, while taking into account the needs and abilities of its owner.

It’s just a Katamari ball of a portfolio that has rolled around picking up whatever sounds good and pays juicy commission to previous advisers.

Meanwhile the key feature documents all play the same soothing marketing lullaby:

Achieve a sustainable level of income combined with the prospect of long-term capital growth.

Beautifully chosen words that press the retiree’s happy buttons while amounting to absolutely naff all.

The brochure risk indicators offer further reassurance with middling scores that tell you nothing about the risks of putting eight near-identical funds in the same portfolio! Like state propaganda, it’s so much window-dressing that provides cover for misdeeds.

You could blame it all on my relative for not having the nous or desire to rigorously research and question all that they have been told.

Or you could imagine yourself next time you’re handed a bill for the repair of your car. Squinting at the list of meaningless charges and hoping that the reason you can’t see any cowboy hats is because you don’t know any cowboys.

So what to do…?

The primary goal of the strategy I’m working on for my relative is to meet her minimum spending needs while removing as much risk from the equation as possible.

The impact of inflation, stock market volatility, tax, the state pension and a long-lived retirement all need to be taken into account.

The product costs need to be dramatically reduced and the advisors who are still siphoning off commission must be unhooked. I’ll need to be wary of any exit charges here.

Annuitisation is looking inevitable, but a rump of the portfolio will remain to cover the unforeseen.

I want to keep this rump simple so my relative can understand what each component part is for. Hopefully this will provide some kind of defence against future temptations to mess. Maintenance needs to be a doddle, too.

Fancy stuff like desired spending needs and legacies can be dreamt about once we’ve secured the minimum spending floor.

I’ll report back once I’ve firmed up the strategy. In the meantime please do let me know in the comments below about your experiences in this realm – either securing your own retirement or the retirement of someone close to you.

I’d be fascinated to learn what others have done in this situation.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

{ 37 comments }
Weekend reading

Good reads from around the Web.

Well here’s something I’ve not seen before – archive footage of a relatively youthful Warren Buffett discussing some long-forgotten bout of stock market turbulence.

For the first time I get a real sense of why not everyone who encountered the young Buffett and his already amazing results invested with him.

Instead of today’s cuddly grandpa billionaire, we see just the hint of a young buck on the make. Without the benefit of hindsight, we may even see a sharp-suited spiv!

In Buffett’s biography The Snowball there’s a very interesting passage on how some potential investors who met Buffett thought he was too good to be true – that he was running a Ponzi scheme.

That’s why friends and family were the main backers of his early partnerships. They had more reason to trust him.

While I’m as big a fan of Buffett as anyone, I think this charming video is yet more evidence of why the chances of you finding the next Buffett are near-zero.

Even if you’re lucky enough to encounter him or her at a party or in an airport lounge, you’ll probably think he’s set to rip you off. And surely anyone who goes on to deliver Buffett’s long-term record is going to have some rough edges in the early days.

You’d be wise to distrust them, too. Whether by design or luck, the world doesn’t turn out many Warren Buffetts.

Is the bond market finally rolling over?

Just a quick extra note to say that Buffett might have another crash to opine about soon, and that’s a bond market crash.

Whisper it (although many are shouting it) but the first cracks do seem to be opening up at last.

Here are a few links on the subject:

  • How central banks drove down bond yields everywhere – Schroders
  • Good graph showing how the yield curve collapsed – Business Insider
  • These low yields helped support stock market valuations – Motley Fool US
  • But US bonds now yield more than stocks again… – Abnormal Returns
  • …and emerging market bonds could be the canary in coal mine – Telegraph

Who knows if this will be yet another false start for the end of the great 30-year bond market bull run. The asset class has made more comebacks than Madonna.

But one company that must be feeling pretty smug is Apple.

[continue reading…]

{ 2 comments }

Four new ETFs from Vanguard

Vanguard’s new ETFs add to its cheap-as-chips range

I am sometimes asked whether Monevator is a stealth site run by Vanguard to promote its activities in the UK.

Chance would be a fine thing!

So far not one of the pennies collected by the Monevator Empire has sallied forth from Vanguard’s coffers, so far as I’m aware.

Indeed, it’s a bit of a sad reflection of the UK financial media that some people’s first thought is that if you’re writing about a product or investment, you must be being paid by that company to do so.

Now don’t get me wrong – I’d absolutely love the opportunity to run Vanguard advertising on this website.

But even in the absence of such a pleasant happenstance, we’ll continue to write about the best products and services for the likes of you and me – and right now that means heavy lashings of whatever is being served up by the private investor friendly Vanguard.

Cheap as chips

My co-blogger The Accumulator spent the weekend helping his extended family with its finances – whether by going through their accounts or offloading their junk at a car boot sale he didn’t say – and so he requested a week off posting duties.

I know! Slacker.

In his stead I’d like to draw your attention to four new ETFs that Vanguard has just brought to the UK market.

ETF name Ticker TER
Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe UCITS ETF VEUR 0.15%
Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF VAPX 0.22%
Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF VJPN 0.19%
Vanguard FTSE All-World High Dividend Yield UCITS ETF VHYL 0.29%

Note: TER figures from Vanguard.

These Vanguard ETFs are all physically-backed funds – as opposed to the synthetic funds that some commentators consider more risky.

You can find out more information (including a prospectus and factsheet for each fund) at Vanguard’s website.

Rampant Vanguard-ism

The launch of these new ETFs seems a tad opportunistic for Vanguard.

I’ve heard more investors talking about Japan this year than in the previous five years put together, and now along comes a very cheap ETF from Vanguard that enables you to get exposure.

The Developed Europe ETF, with its TER of 0.15%, is also a very competitive offering. It’s certainly cheaper than its closest iShares equivalents, and with 499 holdings according to the factsheet I’m pretty sure it’s more diversified, too. (It does have over one-third of its money in UK shares, so keep that in mind when figuring out your overall asset allocation if your idea of Europe is more like UKIP’s!)

But I think that the new High Dividend Yield ETF could be the most interesting of the bunch, at a time when yield-chasing is still so rampant.

Holding over 1,000 globally distributed stocks (albeit with one-third of the index in the US, reflecting the large size of that market, and another 13% in the UK, perhaps on account of our emphasis on yield) this new ETF could be a cheap one-shot way to create a diversified equity income stream.

The factsheet is touting a forecast dividend yield of 4%. Time will tell if that’s what anyone purchasing this ETF actually receives.

Indeed as this ETF is brand spanking new, you’ll probably want to look into the FTSE Index it’s based on to best understand what you’re buying.

Of course, whether you ought to pursue value-tilted indices such as higher yield versus vanilla market cap weighting with your investing is an open question.

{ 16 comments }