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The Warren Buffet passive portfolio

Warren Buffet: One of the world’s richest men, perhaps its greatest living investor, a global philanthropist, sage, paragon of modesty, and a damn fine letter writer to boot. If I had my way this guy would be on posters on every street corner as the West’s answer to North Korea’s Dear Leader.

To cap it all, Buffet loves passive investing, as previously noted by The Investor.

So much so that his instructions for his legacy to his wife are to invest the bulk of the money in index funds:

My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s. (VFINX)) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors — whether pension funds, institutions, or individuals — who employ high-fee managers.

Talk about keeping it simple!

Warren Buffet's passive portfolio

So how would you translate Buffett’s advice into a passive portfolio that UK investors could buy?

Like this:

Asset class Fund Allocation (%)
Equities Vanguard US Equity Index Fund 90
Short-term government bonds Vanguard US Government Bond Index Fund 10

The US Government Bond fund is hedged to Sterling. 66% of its securities count as short-term.

Of course that’s all well and good for someone who lives in America, or plans to emigrate.

A UK homebody version would look like this:

Asset class Fund Allocation (%)
Equities Vanguard FTSE UK Equity Index Fund 90
Short-term government bonds (gilts) SPDR Barclays Capital 1-5 Year Gilt ETF 10

Note: See our cheap tracker guide.

The snag is that the UK equity market isn’t as large or as diversified as the US.

Britishers are well advised to go global:

Asset class Fund Allocation (%)
Equities Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF 90
Short-term government bonds (gilts) SPDR Barclays Capital 1-5 Year Gilt ETF 10

Note: See our cheap tracker guide.

That’s a very simple portfolio that’s poised to take advantage of the march of global capitalism.

Over the long run you should benefit from the high expected returns of equities. Yet you must be prepared to endure the trauma of heavy losses along the way when you devote 90% to a risky asset.

A passive investing champion like Larry Swedroe would generally only recommend a 90% equity allocation if 15 years or more of investing lies ahead of you.

Over that kind of longer time horizon, equity returns are more likely (but not certain) to average out to something that resembles their historical record.

Asset allocation decisions

My guess is that the Buffet passive portfolio can afford to invest 90% in risky equities because Mrs Buffet will not rely upon the stock market portion for her essential living expenses.

The chances are that the bequest is big enough to cater for the basics purely from the government bond portion.

If that’s the case then the portfolio’s asset allocation reflects the fact that you can take more risk on the equity side – in the hope of better returns – as long as you’re not banking on those returns to enable you to live.

If you don’t need the money soon, or you have other options – such as property to sell, a reliable income from other sources, or the ability to get another job – then you can afford to take more risk, too.

In that instance, your age doesn’t matter, although your risk tolerance does.

The less you can afford to lose or the fewer options you have or the sooner you’ll need the money, the more you should ramp up your bond allocation.

Risk free return or return free risk?

Warren Buffet is as sceptical as anyone about the prospects for bonds but plainly he knows that short-term government bonds are a good source of liquidity.

Short-term government bonds:

  • Are unlikely to default (in the case of UK and US bonds).
  • Perform well during turbulent market conditions.
  • Do okay against inflation or rising interest rates (when in a fund) as they mature quickly and are reinvested at a better rate.
  • Are low volatility (in other words, you’re extremely unlikely to find the value of your bonds halves just when you need the money).

Short-term government bonds generally offer stability and low growth and are the bungee in your portfolio that slows its decline in value when equities plunge. They can protect a portion of your nest egg when you need to crack it open, meaning that bonds are still worthy of a place in most portfolios, despite ongoing nervousness about interest rates.

Whether the exact detail of Buffet’s passive portfolio is for you is beside the point. It’s the underlying principle that counts: If passive investing is good enough for his nearest and dearest then it’s probably good enough for the rest of us.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

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Weekend reading

Good reads from around the Web.

A warm welcome to you if you’ve found Monevator today after hearing Mark on Money Box on BBC Radio 4.

If you want to learn more about the pros and cons of discounted funds, check out our recent article.

And there’s plenty more to dig into after that…

Why you should read Monevator

Monevator is about investing money for the long-term, whether it be for your retirement, paying off your mortgage, financial freedom, or some other goal.

We also write about saving, property, entrepreneurship – and now and then just rant about whatever gets our goat.

It’s written by two ordinary people, from our perspective as savers and investors.

Most of our articles are long, a bit nerdy, but (we hope) always readable and entertaining.

We write long articles because while investing can be easy and simple, too many people have been confused, misled, or misguided over the years.

We’re doing our bit to put that right!

If you’re new to the site, you might get started with our guide to passive investing.

A few good reads to begin with include:

There are hundreds more articles in the archives, so please do dig around!

You should also check out our broker comparison table to find the cheapest home for your investments.

Make yourself at home

The rest of this post consists of links to money and investing articles on the web that I’ve found interesting this week.

I do this every Saturday morning, and there’s always something worth reading.

We have more information about investing at our fingertips than any previous generation. But at the same time it’s never been harder to know what to do with your money – nor more important to take charge of your financial future.

[continue reading…]

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Why investors should be wary of discounted funds

The big beast of British investment platforms, Hargreaves Lansdown, has revealed the special discount rates it has secured on index funds.

On the face of it, Hargreaves now hosts the cheapest trackers on the market. From UK equity to emerging markets you could easily put together a diversified portfolio using its range. A range that consists of reputable BlackRock and L&G index funds especially discounted, thanks to Hargreaves’ powers of persuasion and market dominance.

Sadly, while the funds are super competitively priced, Hargreaves’ charges for using their platform are not the best.

The reality is you can buy a much cheaper portfolio using standard-priced index funds from a broker that’s happy to keep a smaller slice of the pie for itself.

What they give with one hand they take away with the other

The table below shows the full cost picture once you add in platform fees.

Every Hargreaves Lansdown fund pick is more expensive overall in comparison to rival Charles Stanley Direct when you add the two fees together:

Hargreaves exclusive index funds OCF (%) Platform fee (%) Total (%) Charles Stanley
regular index funds
OCF (%) Platform fee (%) Total (%)
L&G UK Index C 0.1 0.45 0.55 Royal London UK All Share Tracker Z 0.14 0.25 0.39
L&G US Index C 0.12 0.45 0.57 BlackRock US Equity Tracker D 0.17 0.25 0.42
BlackRock Continental Euro Equity Tracker H 0.12 0.45 0.57 BlackRock Continental Euro Equity Tracker D 0.18 0.25 0.43
BlackRock Japan Equity Tracker H 0.12 0.45 0.57 BlackRock Japan Equity Tracker D 0.18 0.25 0.43
BlackRock Pacific ex Japan Equity Tracker H 0.15 0.45 0.60 BlackRock Pacific ex Japan Equity Tracker D 0.21 0.25 0.46
BlackRock Emerging Markets Tracker H1 0.25 0.45 0.70 BlackRock Emerging Markets Tracker D2 0.29 0.25 0.54
L&G International
Index C
0.2 0.45 0.65 Fidelity Index World Fund I 0.15 0.25 0.40
L&G All Stocks Gilt
Index C
0.1 0.45 0.55 Vanguard UK Government Bond 0.15 0.25 0.40

Note: Dealing costs are zero. The above table shows a representative sample of the full HL range.

What’s the difference?

You’d pay 34% more overall for the privilege of holding a portfolio of Hargreaves Lansdown’s “super low cost” trackers in comparison to their equivalents at Charles Stanley, using the following assumptions:

  • The portfolio equally weights the seven fund categories above (excluding the International fund which wouldn’t be needed).
  • Costs are calculated on a portfolio that’s smaller than £250,000. Both Hargreaves Lansdown and Charles Stanley offer reduced rate tiers beyond this figure.

The weighted total cost of the portfolios is 0.59% at Hargreaves Lansdown and 0.44% at Charles Stanley.

On a £10,000 portfolio that’s no big deal: you’d pay £59 to Hargreaves and £44 to Stanley. I wouldn’t rush for the door for the sake of £15, especially when may have to pay exit fees.

But as you go up the scale, the gulf widens. On a £50,000 portfolio you’d pay:

  • £295 p.a. to Hargreaves Lansdown
  • £220 p.a. to Charles Stanley
  • £99 p.a. to a fixed rate broker like Interactive Investor or iWeb (assuming you can keep your dealing costs within the £80 threshold, which is eminently doable for a passive investor).

Imagine your £50,000 portfolio made a return of 3% that year or £1,500. Hargreaves’ charges would snaffle 20% of that return. Charles Stanley would chomp 15% while Interactive Investor would take less than 7%.

That’s a big difference and it exemplifies why inertia and headline claims of “super low cost” deals are the investor’s enemy if left unchallenged.

Of course if we saw, say, a 20% year, then the percentage of returns eaten up by all these charges would be a lot lower. But you can count on returns closer to the 3% end of the spectrum than the 20% end over the long term.

Hi Fidelity

Fidelity is the other big player who is sounding the horn for its exclusive low cost trackers. Again, the manager’s special is a dish best served to someone else:

Fidelity exclusive funds OCF (%) Platform fee (%) Total (%) Charles Stanley
regular index funds
OCF (%) Platform fee (%) Total (%)
Fidelity Index UK 0.09 0.35 0.44 Royal London UK All Share Tracker Z 0.14 0.25 0.39
Fidelity Index US 0.09 0.35 0.44 BlackRock US Equity Tracker D 0.17 0.25 0.42
Fidelity Index Europe Ex UK 0.16 0.35 0.51 BlackRock Continental Euro Equity Tracker D 0.18 0.25 0.43
Fidelitity Index Japan
0.15 0.35 0.50 BlackRock Japan Equity Tracker D 0.18 0.25 0.43
Fidelity Index Pacific Ex Japan 0.2 0.35 0.55 BlackRock Pacific ex Japan Equity Tracker D 0.21 0.25 0.46
Emerging Markets3 0.27 0.35 0.62 BlackRock Emerging Markets Equity Tracker D 0.29 0.25 0.54
Fidelity Index World 0.18 0.35 0.53 Fidelity Index World Fund I 0.15 0.25 0.40

Note: Dealing costs are zero.

As with Hargreaves Lansdown, Fidelity is second class in every category. It even takes a beating from the institutional version of its own World index fund that’s available from Charles Stanley.

The weighted total cost of both portfolios is 0.51% vs 0.45%.4 In other words, you’ll pay 13% more for Fidelity’s exclusives.

That’s only £6 difference on a £10,000 portfolio but as your wealth heads north of £16,000 then you’re increasingly better off with a fixed fee broker.

Cleaning up

Don’t think you’re getting anything special with exclusives funds – sometimes described as Super Clean by an industry that believes you can shift anything as long as you market it correctly.

Super Clean funds are just low-price share classes of regular funds. In other words, they are exactly the same thing except for the discount.

If the discounted fund’s Ongoing Charge Figure (OCF) plus the platform fee amounts to more than you’d pay for much the same thing elsewhere then who wins? Not the investor that’s for sure.

(Ignore any references to Annual Management Charges (AMC) or any other fund fee formulation that isn’t labelled the OCF or Total Expense Ratio (TER) or “total cost of investing”. AMCs are just another little trick designed to wrong-foot unwary investors and to underplay the true costs of a fund).

What’s more, an ‘exclusive’ fund that’s not stocked by other platforms may cause problems if you decide to switch later on.

You may have to sell your exclusive into cash to facilitate the transfer and buy into a new fund that is more commonly available. That’s time out of the market that could cost you more money and may put you off a switch that would otherwise work in your favour.

So don’t be lured in by special offers designed to make you feel better about paying more for the same thing.

Big brands will always try to leverage their cachet but as savvy DIY investors we should seek out their hungrier, more competitive rivals who are prepared to do us the best deal.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

  1. Full name is BlackRock Emerging Markets Equity Tracker H []
  2. Full name is BlackRock Emerging Markets Equity Tracker D []
  3. Full name is Fidelity Index Emerging Markets []
  4. The assumed portfolio consists of equal weightings of the six equity funds in the table once the World fund has been excluded. This is being generous to Fidelity as the portfolio doesn’t include a gilt fund, a common category where it does not offer a discount. []
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Weekend reading

Good reads from around the Web.

I don’t have a fixed routine for the weekend, besides writing this post of course. But where possible I like to watch videos of Nobel prize winners musing about the markets.

And here’s – eventually, after adverts that sound like a parody – Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, interviewed by US broadcaster Consuelo Mack:

I wish Shiller was my grandfather and that I went to his house for dinner on Sundays. Somebody out there is one lucky grandson!

[continue reading…]

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