≡ Menu
Weekend reading: The perversity of the Lifetime Allowance for pensions post image

Good reads from around the Web.

Pensioners often seem as cosseted and fussed over by the government these days as pandas on the verge of getting it on in a panda sanctuary.

They’re a protected species, guarded by the pension triple-lock against the austerity that has hit other potentially vulnerable groups, and shielded from radical policies to, say, address the housing shortage that might turf sensitively coax 70-somethings and their cats from four-bedroom family homes that they can’t really afford.

That’s not to say many pensioners (perhaps including you 🙂 ) aren’t relatively poor despite a life of hard work, or that they haven’t done their bit, or that we should punish them for giving us Brexit. ((I fully know not all old people voted for Brexit by any means, and saw and met many wonderful and wrinkly Remainers on the march the other week. Just as not all Leavers are xenophobes. Etc etc.))

I just mean that when it comes to fueling the great engine of State – which most of us agree needs to be paid for – pensioners’ pennies have been kept away from the furnace. (Don’t get me started on the new Inheritance Tax rules that came in this week, although to be fair I see that as more of a perk for the beneficiaries).

We’ve even had the pension freedoms, which have given richer pensioners a sense of control akin to when they got their first Austin Allegro.

The 55% tax strikes back

Standing against this smorgasbord of delight for pensioners (and arguably would-be pensioners) is the ludicrous Lifetime Allowance, which former Pensions Minister Ros Altman lambasts in The Telegraph this week.

For those too young, impoverished, Ostrich-like, foreign, or accidentally reading this website to know, the Lifetime Allowance for pensions basically sees the Treasury taking your projected annual pension at the time you begin receiving it and multiplying it by 20. If the resultant sum is over the Lifetime Allowance – once £1.8 million, but £1 million today – you could see an effective tax charge as high as 55% on the excess. There are protections against this, but they’re a mind-bender.

Now, £1 million might seem a fortune to some of the frugalistas among you. But keep in mind it would currently buy an index-linked annuity paying merely £20,000 a year. It’s also easily breached by those on generous final salary schemes, such as those in the public sector.

Equally, the Lifetime Allowance is very hard to plan for if you’re younger and contributing to say a SIPP that’s invested in a bunch of index funds. If the market does well, you could end up being penalised for years of extra cautious saving and diligent investing. Holidays you could have taken, restaurants you might have tried – all gone up in tax smoke.

The counterargument is that the State isn’t in the business of given people a rich retirement. That may be true, but wouldn’t a Lifetime Contribution allowance – akin to the ISA allowances, and adjusted to take into account defined benefit schemes in the public sector – be a fairer and less random system?

Because as things stand, as Altman points out, people are retiring early merely to avoid it – including some super-valuable workers that we might prefer to see carrying on into their 70s.

Altman writes:

If you are on course for a £50,000-a-year pension by the time you’re 60, you will know in advance that you will come in over the limit.

In these circumstances, it makes sense to retire before you reach that point, which you can do at any age from 55, and take a reduced pension (the earlier you retire, the lower the pension).

This lets you avoid hitting the Lifetime Allowance, because the new rules don’t take into account that this lower pension would be paid for more years. They ignore the fact that you would probably receive the same amount – or even more – over your lifetime. By taking the lower pension, you can avoid the draconian pension tax, and still get the same expected pension payments in the end.

This encourages GPs and senior workers to retire much younger than they otherwise might.

This was a new perspective for me. Indeed Altman makes a pretty convincing case that the Lifetime Allowance is doing few favours for anyone, including society at large.

[continue reading…]

{ 72 comments }

The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q1 2017

The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q1 2017 post image

You know how we humans like to shoot the messenger when they bring bad news? Well, I feel like I should be treated to a ticker tape parade and my choice of wives. Because here’s the latest dispatch – our investment garden is looking very rosy right now. Last quarter was good, and things have only gotten better thanks to Trump, Brexit, Hawaiian pig farmers, or your own rationale du jour.

Every asset class is higher. The portfolio has put on over 4% in three months and a staggering 11.8% on an annualised basis. That’s well above historical averages. The FTSE All-Share has managed 9.8% over the same period.

Here’s the portfolio in 8K RetinaBurn™ spreadsheet-o-vision:

Slow & Steady portfolio tracker, Q1 2017

So that’s another one-up for globally diversified passive portfolios.

The Slow and Steady portfolio is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000. An extra £900 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, heavily tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and catch up on all the previous passive portfolio posts.

Wait a second – is everything going a bit too well? Shouldn’t we do something? Y’ know, tweak a few knobs to keep the pace up, bob and weave to evade onrushing disasters?

The US – it’s overvalued right? Everyone says so. Maybe we should dial back on that and switch into something cheap. How about Russia? That Vladimir Putin knows a thing or two…

Whenever my brain starts playing these kind of tricks on me, a good antidote is to consult this jellybean chart from Vanguard:

Which asset wins guessing game

The chart hurts my eyes, but it also shows the annual asset class winners and losers over the last decade. Each asset class is colour-coded, so you can quickly feast on the patterns that emerge.

Except they don’t. What we’ve got is a violent patchwork quilt that even grandma would burn because the pattern is about as meaningful as Snakes & Ladders.

For instance, emerging markets topped last year’s table. Up from bottom place the year before, and in 2013, and in 2011. Yet that period in the dumpster came after taking the top spot three times out of four from 2007 to 2010. Though the same asset class took the wooden spoon in 2008. It all tells you more about the volatility of emerging markets than anything else. Be prepared for a wild ride.

North American equities haven’t been out of the top three for the last four years – hence the current frothy valuations – but they registered six years of mostly mid-table mediocrity before that. Reversion to the mean then?

Interestingly, global equities have managed a top half performance in every year bar two. Diversification is looking pretty sound again. Take that brain.

The clash of colours on this table is nothing more than the flashing reels of the world’s most complicated casino. Nobody can predict the winners with any long-term consistency. And the Irrelevant Investor blog has this brilliant chart on how today’s US bull market stacks up against its predecessors.

How far does the US bull market have to run?

If history is any guide then today’s US bull market could have a long way to run. Of course it might not, but you could give up a lot of upside by swinging away now. I don’t bet against America, although I accept that the future returns of a highly valued market are unlikely to be as lucrative as a cheap market in the long term.

If you simply must do something, take a look at over-balancing. In the meantime, I’m going to stay out of the fiddling game and let the chips fall where they may.

We’re nicely diversified. Something’s gotta be the loser but for now let’s just enjoy the fact that everything is coming up, er, trumps.

New transactions

Every quarter we grease the market’s palm with another £900. Our cash is divided between our seven funds according to our asset allocation.

We use Larry Swedroe’s 5/25 rule to trigger rebalancing moves, but all’s quiet this quarter. So we’re just topping up with new money as follows:

UK equity

Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust – OCF 0.08%

Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63

New purchase: £54

Buy 0.287 units @ £187.65

Target allocation: 6%

Developed world ex-UK equities

Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund – OCF 0.15%

Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73

New purchase: £342

Buy 1.109 units @ £308.29

Target allocation: 38%

Global small cap equities

Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund – OCF 0.38%

Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05

New purchase: £63

Buy 0.24 units @ £261.96

Target allocation: 7%

Emerging market equities

BlackRock Emerging Markets Equity Tracker Fund D – OCF 0.25%

Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642

New purchase: £90

Buy 61.058 units @ £1.47

Target allocation: 10%

Global property

BlackRock Global Property Securities Equity Tracker Fund D – OCF 0.22%

Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71

New purchase: £63

Buy 32.077 units @ £1.96

Target allocation: 7%

UK gilts

Vanguard UK Government Bond Index – OCF 0.15%

Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374

New purchase: £234

Buy 1.44 units @ £162.48

Target allocation: 26%

UK index-linked gilts

Vanguard UK Inflation-Linked Gilt Index Fund – OCF 0.15%

Fund identifier: GB00B45Q9038

New purchase: £54

Buy 0.287 units @ £188.15

Target allocation: 6%

New investment = £900

Trading cost = £0

Platform fee = 0.25% per annum.

This model portfolio is notionally held with Charles Stanley Direct. You can use that company’s monthly investment option to invest from £50 per fund. Just cancel the option after you’ve traded if you don’t want to make the same investment next month.

Take a look at our online broker table for other good platform options. Look at flat fee brokers if your ISA portfolio is worth substantially more than £25,000.

Average portfolio OCF = 0.17%

If all this seems too much like hard work then you can buy a diversified portfolio using an all-in-one fund such as Vanguard’s LifeStrategy series.

Take it steady,
The Accumulator

{ 72 comments }

Weekend reading: Triggered

Weekend reading: Triggered post image

Good reads from around the Web.

Well it wasn’t a long-game April Fool. As we all know Britain has triggered Article 50, and the process of giving up a lot for a little has begun.

I don’t intend debating the pros and cons again today. Regular readers know my views. Some old regular readers never forgave me them and left the website, which is fair enough.

The PM Theresa May made a good fist of trying to promise everything to everyone. That’s probably the only sensible strategy at this point, although it might bite us back down the line.

But I preferred President of the European Council Donald Tusk’s statement, obviously:

“There is no reason to pretend that this is a happy day, neither in Brussels nor in London.

“After all, most Europeans – including almost half the British voters – wish that we would stay together, not drift apart.”

Yes, nearly half. That’s not something you hear much around our part of the world, eh?

A friend summed up her feelings with the following photo. Some of you can have a snigger at the back if you want to. I’ll delete anything nasty in the comments.

Source: A friend.

It will be interesting to see if triggering Article 50 does lead to any concrete changes in the UK economy. So far we’ve been running on the powerful momentum we had despite, you know, being shackled to Europe and all that, but juiced by the low pound. (And, I suppose, by many households made cheery by what they see as a brighter future, and spending more.)

Like most investor types, I was wrong-footed by the UK’s strength following the vote, though I’d argue I realized and admitted it sooner than most.

Normally uncertainty derails markets. At the least I expected inward investment to fall (which matters because as a nation we’re funded by the kindness of strangers) and the London property market to roll over (which matters because we’re probably in a house price bubble).

Neither occurred. Was it a Wiley Coyote moment due to the delay with Article 50 (which David Cameron had said he’d trigger right away) or has the invisible hand divined things won’t be so bad for Britain?

The crash in Sterling suggests the jury is out, and ordering pizzas and coffee.

Here are a few quick takes on the investing consequences from around the Web:

  • Article 50: Reactions from The City – Financial News
  • Basically the same trawl, but with a few additional voices – Independent
  • What does it mean for UK investors – Money Observor
  • What now? [More passive-minded]Nutmeg
  • What triggering Article 50 means for investors – FT Advisor

[continue reading…]

{ 59 comments }
Weekend reading: Are we marching towards a State pension age of 70? post image

Good reads from around the Web.

Morning! We’re all too late I’m running late for today’s futile march of the damned, so I’ll just put this one out there.

According to the BBC:

An analysis for the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has suggested that workers under the age of 30 may not get a pension until the age of 70.

There are two new reports that have set the bell officially tolling:

  • The drier report from the Government’s Actuary department is the one that’s mooting an extreme scenario in which the State pension age is lifted to 70, as soon as 2054.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news to anyone under 45 or so – and especially to the under-30s.

At least we’re expected to live longer! Get your own money compounding over the extra years, and try not to be reliant on the State.

[continue reading…]

{ 39 comments }