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The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q4 2024

Well that’ll do nicely. The Slow & Steady enjoyed 9.5% growth over the past year. Not bad for a portfolio on auto-pilot. I think it’s fair to say that reports of the death of the 60/40 portfolio are greatly exaggerated.

Here are the latest numbers:

The Slow & Steady is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000. An extra £1,310 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and find all the previous passive portfolio posts in the Monevator vaults. Last quarter’s instalment can be found here.

With the exception of global property, our equity holdings had a spectacular year:

Source: Morningstar Portfolio Manager

The returns for Emerging Markets, Global Small Cap, and the UK’s FTSE All-Share would look wonderful if they weren’t put in the shade by the blowout performance of Developed World equities – specifically US equities.

Indeed the S&P 500 delivered nearly three times the return of its nearest Developed World compadre this past year:

Source: JustETF

And this isn’t a new story. The US has been the Slow & Steady portfolio’s main engine of growth over the course of its 14-year lifespan:

Charts like this can shake your faith in the power of diversification.

If this is a free lunch then it comes with a bad case of food envy.

Where to go from here?

Do you want some more of what the guy in the cowboy hat is having? Or are you (sensibly) wary of piling in near the top?

There are three options as I see it.

You could:

1. Fold your non-US cards and project that the current trend will continue forever. Because that usually works out, right? [Editor’s note: Strong ironic tones detected.]

2. Conclude the trend contains the seeds of its own demise, as hinted at by valuation measures. For instance, Research Affiliates’ expected returns metric forecasts a real US annualised return of just 0.04% for the next decade:

If this version of the universe comes to pass, then ditching your diversifiers now to go all-in on Team America would be precisely the wrong move.

3. Finally, you could ignore both visions of the future, remembering that the US can indeed lag the rest of the world for years but also that the switchover point is inherently unpredictable:

How often do world equities beat US equities. This chart shows that the lead changed hands 10 times between 1919 and 2023.

Data from JST Macrohistory1, The Big Bang2, MSCI and Aswath Damodaran. August 2024.

The longer-term view revealed by this chart shows that lengthy periods of dominance are quite common.

They do end – or at least they always have before – yet in the meantime the winners in those eras probably seemed ‘locked-in’ to many investors at the time, too.

Worldly wisdom

The World index is now 72% occupied by US shares. If the S&P 500 continues to crush it, then World funds will pass that on, mildly diluted by the also-rans.

On the other hand if other locales do have a moment in the sun, then with a globally-diversified portfolio you’ll at least have some exposure to those new sources of momentum.

Personally I’m uncomfortable banking my net worth on any single sector, country, or asset class.

I’m happy to take my time getting to where I’m going, which is exactly why we called this project the Slow & Steady portfolio and not the Get Rich Quick Or Die Trying Mega-Punt portfolio.

Long story short: stand down, as you were.

Fourteen years down, six to go

I can scarcely believe it but the Slow & Steady portfolio is now 14-years old.

Back in 2010, I gave it a 20-year time-horizon – never thinking that was a destination this series would ever arrive at.

Now it looks like we might.

In the meantime, the original £3,000 seed money has multiplied to nearly £91,000 thanks to regular cash injections, reinvested dividends, and capital gains.

Here’s the story in a chart:

The first half of the journey was almost a cakewalk, barring the launch year’s knock back:

And the portfolio has only suffered one serious blow, in 2022. That year saw a bad-enough 13% loss in nominal terms – but a knuckle-gnawing 20% takedown after inflation.

Indeed, inflation went on to pour cold water over 2023’s glowing 9.2% result too, leaving us with a tepid 1.8% return in real terms.

Inflation stayed becalmed for most of my adult life. Yet old hands – and books – had warned us for years that ballooning prices was the most fearsome enemy we might face as investors.

Well, now we’ve lived it. Hence all the articles we’ve published on various ways to defend against galloping money rot.

Landing the plane

Still, such setbacks have done little more so far than knock the froth off the portfolio’s early promise.

Right now our annualised return is bang on average at 4.2%.3

However the next six years will have an outsized impact on the portfolio’s eventual fate due to sequence of returns risk.

If this was not a model portfolio but rather our life savings – and if we couldn’t afford to take a big loss from here on – then there’d be a strong case for allocating more to wealth-preserving, short-term inflation-linked bonds than we currently do.

Portfolio maintenance

We rebalance every year so that our portfolio doesn’t drift too far from our preset asset allocation.

Meanwhile our key equity/bond split is fixed at 60/40 for the remainder of the portfolio’s lifetime.

As the Developed World performed spectacularly in 2024 and bonds handed us another year of defeat, rebalancing amounts to selling off around 4% of our primary equities fund to plough into cheaper bonds.

Perhaps we’ll be rewarded for such saintliness in the next life – or maybe in the near future, if equities have a shocker in 2025.

Either way, remember rebalancing is about controlling your exposure to risk rather than juicing returns.

Our final move is to shift our 40% bond asset allocation by 2% per year until this sub-component is split 50/50 between conventional gilts and short-term index-linked bonds.

Which means that this quarter:

  • The Vanguard UK Government Bond index fund decreases to a 23% target allocation
  • The Royal London Short Duration Global Index Linked (GBP hedged) fund increases to a 17% target allocation

The reason for this is we believe short-term index-linked bonds help defend the purchasing power of a portfolio once you’re ready to spend it.

(See our No Cat Food decumulation portfolio for more on our thinking.)

Inflation adjustments

We increase our regular cash injections by RPI every year to maintain our inflation-adjusted contribution level.

This year’s inflation figure is 3.6%, and so we’ll invest £1,310 per quarter in 2025.

That’s an increase from £750 back in 2011. We’ve upped the amount we put in by 75% over the past 14 years simply to keep our nose ahead of inflation.

New transactions

Every quarter we’ll drip-feed £1,310 onto the stalagmites of our funds. This time our trades play out as follows:

UK equity

Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust – OCF 0.06%

Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63

New purchase: £72.87

Buy 0.262 units @ £277.74

Target allocation: 5%

Developed world ex-UK equities

Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund – OCF 0.14%

Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73

Rebalancing sale: £3222.39

Sell 4.46 units @ £722.32

Target allocation: 37%

Global small cap equities

Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund – OCF 0.29%

Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05

Rebalancing sale: £21.81

Sell 0.048 units @ £456.45

Target allocation: 5%

Emerging market equities

iShares Emerging Markets Equity Index Fund D – OCF 0.19%

Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642

Rebalancing sale: £161.45

Sell 77.532 units @ £2.08

Target allocation: 8%

Global property

iShares Environment & Low Carbon Tilt Real Estate Index Fund – OCF 0.18%

Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71

New purchase: £403.84

Buy 171.789 units @ £2.35

Target allocation: 5%

UK gilts

Vanguard UK Government Bond Index – OCF 0.12%

Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374

New purchase: £1434.45

Buy 10.985 units @ £130.58

Target allocation: 23%

Global inflation-linked bonds

Royal London Short Duration Global Index-Linked Fund – OCF 0.27%

Fund identifier: GB00BD050F05

New purchase: £2804.48

Buy 2653.248 units @ £1.06

Dividends reinvested: £196.10 (Buy another 185.52 units)

Target allocation: 17%

New investment contribution = £1,310

Trading cost = £0

Average portfolio OCF = 0.16%

User manual

Take a look at our broker comparison table for your best investment account options.

InvestEngine is currently cheapest if you’re happy to invest only in ETFs. Or learn more about choosing the cheapest stocks and shares ISA for your situation.

If this seems too complicated, check out our best multi-asset fund picks. These include all-in-one diversified portfolios such as the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds.

Interested in monitoring your own portfolio or using the Slow & Steady spreadsheet for yourself? Our piece on portfolio tracking shows you how.

You might also enjoy a refresher on why we think most people are best choosing passive vs active investing.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

  1. Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2019.  The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3), 1225-1298. []
  2. Dmitry Kuvshinov and Kaspar Zimmermann. 2021. The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run. Journal of Financial Economics, Forthcoming. []
  3. 2024’s annual inflation figure is currently estimated to be 2.5%. []
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Weekend Reading logo

What caught my eye this week.

Welcome back and Happy New Year! I hope you got just what you wanted for Christmas, and that you continue to get what you want for the rest of the year.

Well, just so long as what you want includes a sufficiently severe enough case of investing obsession to keep you coming back to Monevator throughout 2025.

Of course if you’re reading this article – and it’s not because you were sloppily Googling for old Mr Motivator videos to kickstart your fitness goals – then you’re probably already a bit of an investing nerd.

And that makes you unusual. Indeed I can’t remember a time when most people were less interested in shares.

If I allude to Monevator when meeting new people then I usually get more questions about crypto, side hustles, or buy-to-let than anything about the stock market.

In contrast, 20 years ago there were investing programmes on daytime TV and realms of coverage in the business pages.

That’s mostly all gone – and TikTok videos about YOLO-ing into MicroStrategy shares are a poor substitute.

A land of unbelievers

To the extent that this all reflects a sober move towards passive investing, I can hardly complain.

I might be a stock picking nutter but that’s not what I believe most people should do.

And while my co-blogger The Accumulator can bore for Blighty on the 4% rule – seriously, don’t get trapped with him in the kitchen at a party  – index fund investing is largely set-and-forget. There’s not much to make a TV show about.

However I don’t believe the eerie quiet really reflects a nation secretly growing rich on their global trackers.

The Financial Times just published data from Abrdn (sadly that’s not a typo) showing Britons have the ‘lowest appetite’ in the G7 when it comes to stock market investing:

Okay, we are doing well for investing in pensions. So perhaps there is a bit of slow and steady compounding in retirement accounts crowding out the enthusiasm for shares I recall from the past.

Moreover, the FT explains the sky-high US allocation to directly owning equities partly reflects that it has so many more very wealthy people. In contrast those of moderate means prefer to invest in housing.

Not that the US becoming so much richer than us is a comfort. But it is another story.

Spread the word

However you interpret this data, I think it’s a shame so few directly invest in equities.

Investing in the stock market made me financially independent in 20-odd years without a rockstar income.

And while there was certainly plenty of hard saving and a bit of luck (or even – cough – skill) in the mix, I still believe snowballing your way to financial freedom via the stock market is an aspiration open to everyone, not just the rich.

If you do too then let’s spread the word to more of our countrymen and women in 2025.

I’ll do my bit with this website. But how will you get your friends and family to tune in?

Besides regularly sending them Monevator articles, I mean.

Let us know in the comments, and have a great weekend – and a great year.

p.s. A quick thanks after dozens of new Monevator members signed up following my Christmas post. I’m a bit flummoxed as to why this call to action did so well, to be honest. But my hunch is the stream of generous comments from existing members played a part. Social proof is a powerful force and reading so many people saying nice things probably reassured a few more into joining us. So thank you!

[continue reading…]

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Amateur activist [Members]

Monevator Moguls logo

You weren’t rewarded for contrarianism in 2024.

If you decided in January that enthusiasm for A.I.-related companies looked frothy, US indices seemed stretched, and that as inflation eased and rates normalised we’d surely see a rotation into something – anything – other than the same half-dozen and a bit tech behemoths that drove returns in 2023, then woe betide you for having ideas above your station.

This article can be read by selected Monevator members. Please see our membership plans and consider joining! Already a member? Sign in here.
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Weekend reading: Merry Christmas everyone

Weekend Reading logo

What caught my eye this week.

I can’t deny the Monevator Christmas party is always a little awkward, but I look forward to it every year.

It’s the anonymity that makes it tricky. Not just keeping our identities secret from the waiting staff, but also from each other.

Finumus doesn’t want anybody to know who he really is, you see. But when you land your private helicopter in the pub garden it’s a bit of a giveaway.

Meanwhile my false beard always gets covered in gravy.

Secret Santa adds to the surreal air, but again it’s easy to guess who gave what.

Did I really need The Accumulator’s slightly musky Chillbreaker now the cost-of-living crisis is over?

And while Squirrel accepted her framed stock certificate of a triple-levered uranium ETF – blatantly from Finumus – with good grace, TA groaned as he unwrapped a copy of One Up On Wall Street.

“Every bloody year…” he complained, warding off Peter Lynch’s stock-picking classic with a copy of Tim Hale’s Smart Money – which he carries with him everywhere to shun temptation, like a Holy cross.

Lynch’s book flew back through the air at me – it’s not easy to duck when you’re sporting a three-foot long beard – and I packed it away for next year.

(Stay hungry, stay frugal!)

Then there are the gatecrashers.

It’s nice enough when Lars shows his face for old time’s sake. And it’s heartening to see The Greybeard grown fat on his equity income trust dividends after all these years.

But is that not Ermine in the corner? Plotting something with a bright-looking fellow on a dusty old Sinclair computer?

When the whole of yesteryear’s Team Monevator turns up expecting brandy and mince pies, I’m afraid to say we sneak out the back door and escape via that waiting chopper.

Monevator membership revenues are going quite well, but we’re not running another Studio 54 here!

Thank you, thank you

Talking of membership, a huge thanks to the many readers who now support this site with a few quid every month. It’s made a big difference.

I was reading Ed Zitron this week on how the Internet, media, and just using a computer has been progressively ruined over the past decade, and I thought again that I’d probably have turned off Monevator if enough people hadn’t signed up to support our work.

Zitron writes:

As every single platform we use is desperate to juice growth from every user, everything we interact with is hyper-monetized through plugins, advertising, microtransactions and other things that constantly gnaw at the user experience.

We load websites expecting them to be broken, especially on mobile, because every single website has to have 15+ different ad trackers, video ads that cover large chunks of the screen, all while demanding our email or for us to let them send us notifications.

I know – of course we do some of this ourselves.

We show ads to non-members on the website, and I prompt new visitors to sign-up to read us by email. We (sparingly) use affiliate links. And some of this involves the same tracking stuff we’re all exposed to on every other site on the Internet, apart from possibly Wikipedia.

I suppose a few people may consider us adding a membership tier to be part of this ‘making everything worse’.

Well I don’t.

I love the membership tier and the purity of email.

Some dwindling number of diehards will never accept that creating digital products and destinations for years on end has to be paid for somehow.

But for the rest of us I prefer a model where we directly pay for things.

I do it myself with other websites and newsletters. Though I accept the costs add up, and there is a limit.

If you are of the grumpier persuasion, you’d probably be surprised at everything I turn down.

Paid-for links to crypto, currency exchange, and loan sites. (We never sell links). Well-known companies asking us to create stealthy articles to promote their products. Lucrative guest posts by SEO firms. The long trails of clickbait ads that even old-line newspaper sites have at the end of every article these days.

Again, you might say you’re looking at an advert next to these words on our website right now.

All I can say is that this is the thin end of a very thick wedge. And I fight to stay at the right end.

We’re still standing, yeah yeah yeah

Zitron’s article turned a bit hyperbolic but I agree with most of it.

However where I disagree is his broad brush claim that media sites have done all this ‘enshittification’ for vast growth and profits.

In fact they’ve usually made endless compromises and degraded the experience to near-unusable levels either because they are desperate not to go bust or because they already went bust and the new owner is squeezing out whatever juice is left in the brand. The big platforms have sucked all the air and money out of the Internet, and everyone else is left to starve.

We’re spoiled in the UK. We have the BBC and (whatever you think of the politics) The Guardian, two of the least-polluted free media sites left standing.

But countless others have gone dark, or else it would have been better had they done so.

As for independent blogs, maybe 95% of those I’ve linked to in the UK are no longer around.

Honestly, I’m sometimes tempted to turn Monevator into a subscription-only newsletter and switch off the lights, too. It’s a better experience for readers and better for us. No more fighting spam each day!

But we still get so many emails from new people thanking us for helping them take their first steps in investing, or from older hands for keeping them on the straight and narrow.

I’ve collected several hundred of these. That folder is probably the crowning achievement of my working life.

Perhaps I should have tried harder to achieve more, I guess, but anyway I’m loathe to turn off the site while we’re making a difference – however much Google is trying to kill us and others off with its endless algorithm changes.

So again, if you’re signed up as a Monevator member then thank you!

You make it possible for us to continue to keep 99% of the 2,000-plus articles we’ve written free to read. A portion of your subscription covers the 30 minutes or more I spend every day keeping Monevator clear of toxic links, racist and sexist comments, and bit rot.

Hopefully you’re enjoying the extra member content too, of course!

We’re able to go deeper in the member-only articles, especially with my active ones. And it’s very nice not to worry about search engines with them.

Don’t forget you can browse all our Mavens and Moguls posts in their archives. There’s quite a few now!

The weakest link

On the opposite tack, a few members have asked me to paywall more content.

Really – I was surprised too, but I guess it reflects a desire not to be taken advantage of.

Personally I feel we have the right balance with our investing-related content, but there is a chance that I will eventually make the Weekend Reading links a members-only affair.

Doing these links is a service to our regular readers. Nobody stumbles across them via search.

And Weekend Reading is the reading list I’d love to see each week if I wasn’t creating it myself. It takes eight to ten hours to compile each one (much of which consists of reading and rejecting articles you never see links to) but it is a labour of love.

However its roots lie in that better Internet of 20 years ago.

Back then we used to do ‘blog carnivals’ where blogs would link to each other to spread their traffic and credibility around.

Yet besides one or two honourable exceptions – thank you Simple Living in Somerset and Abnormal Returns – almost nobody links freely now.

I’ve included hundreds of links to certain blogs and had at most a couple back to us over two decades. More often zero.

I get it’s harder because we’re a British site and we can be kind of nerdy. But we do have some articles that are universally worthy of linking to.

Even worse, Google probably penalises us nowadays for doing what used to be the right thing and highlighting the best of the web via these links.

It’s so rare to do this now that it’s potentially become an indicator of a spammy link farm.

Ho hum. A halfway house would be to keep the Weekend Reading list free but for email subscribers only. So again, subscribe to the free emails if you haven’t.

Finally, if you’re a member but you’re not getting the emails you expect to see, then please do drop me a line via a reply to this email (ideally) or via the contact form link top-right (risk of getting stuck in spam.)

The system is not perfect, but I can always sort out problems. Ditto if you have log-in issues. (Deleting your cookies usually does the trick).

The best readers on the Web

Okay, that’s a lot in the weeds for a busy Christmas weekend.

I try not to solicit membership too often but the reality is some people churn away (et tu Maven?) so we have to keep topping up.

TLDR: please everyone sign-up as members and then we can stay classy indefinitely.

Beyond that, thanks for reading us for another year.

With all the competition from cat and dog TikToks and belaboured YouTube videos where someone reads out their Vanguard statement for 20 minutes for 100,000 views, we do not take our audience for granted.

Nor, for that matter, the many wonderful readers who add so much value in our comments.

If Monevator still has a USP in today’s universally indexing-friendly age, it’s surely in the quality of the discussions that take place beneath so many of our articles.

Happy new year

Right, that’s us almost done for 2024. I’ll have my Moguls missive out for December but otherwise we’re taking a break until the first Saturday of the new year.

So cheers, Merry Christmas – and see you in 2025!

(Now grab the other end of this cracker TA…)

[continue reading…]

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