Weekend reading: will the SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic floats sink index funds?

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  Mogul

  1 Delta Hedge May 30, 2026, 12:24 pm

  Looking forward to reading the weekend links (on Eurostar to Paris! 😉 ) and thanks as always for the time and care putting them together.

  Guess Anthropic*could* be the real deal.

  Claude 4.8 is/about to drop, revenues exponential (5x run rate since end 2025).

  SpaceX not so much.

  Impressive tech achievement. Take my (Yorkshire man’s cloth) cap off to that.

  But break it down and you’ve got a profitable satellite launch company which is (to date) heavily dependent on Starlink, which (given cost to user) is, in turn, a demand (not capacity) constrained market.

  Due to (Space based radiative to vacuum versus Earth bound convective to atmosphere) cooling and maintenance issues, I’m very much not convinced that orbital / Lagrange point data centres can be made to ‘work’, if not fail technically then at least not pay off economically.

  And then this business is mated in this IPO with the deeply loss making xAi, which is declining IMHO (Grok is definitely in the 3rd tier here, behind Claude, and then both of OAI / GPT 5.5 and Alphabet / Gemini 3.5).

  To wit, you’re paying upfront on faith for a hell of a lot of future growth on an at best (for any operating segment) very low double digits revenue growth.

  Whereas Anthropic at 5x in 5 months (admittedly unsustainable) is coming in at a ludicrous revenue run rate increase CAGR of about 3,000%!!!

  Even if that falls next year to low hundreds of percent annualised, it’s just a so much more meaningful proposition than Musk’s madness (with or without the Mars stuff).