Weekend reading: Summertime, and the living is queasy

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• 1 ermine August 21, 2020, 11:29 pm

  > So far in my circle it’s only a few of the self-employed and small business owners that have obviously suffered.

  You clearly move is a better quality of circles most of the people of working age I know have lost their work.

  Counterfactually I moved the other way and am working at a very low number of hours but a decent hourly rate, both because I can’t do some of the recreational things I’d otherwise want to do due to restrictions or disinclination, and also because I, probably irrationally, fear some aspects of the financial future

  Many thanks for the quote and link!
• 2 The Investor August 22, 2020, 1:44 am

  You clearly move is a better quality of circles most of the people of working age I know have lost their work.

  Do you mean their jobs or as you rather precisely say their work? I know plenty of people who’ve been unable to work. But off the top of my head I can’t think of anyone who has been sacked yet in my personal circle. As I say the limited company owners are the exception — eg a conference organising friend whose business mostly vanished, a movie buisiness freelance – these guys have seen their income go. But I’m wracking my brains trying to think of who I’ve overlooked who was sacked. Again, none yet. Perhaps we’ve been lucky but the unemployment rate suggests not.

  (P.S. You’re welcome as always! 🙂 )
• 3 JimJim August 22, 2020, 7:04 am

  Is the math(s) correct in the this is money article @TI? “the UK economy will shrink by 10.3% in 2020 and only post 6.2% growth in 2021. That would leave our economy 4.5% smaller at the end of 2021 than it was at the end of 2019.”
  I get it to 4.74% smaller by the end of 2021 by those estimates.
  JimJim
• 4 Richard August 22, 2020, 7:08 am

  I know quite a few, myself included. I am thankful I kept that cash now.
• 5 Matt August 22, 2020, 8:23 am

  I think there’s a difference between London and the rest of Britain (as usual!). I have no recent experience of London, but understand that Central London in particular is still a bit of a ghost town. My own experience of the South west is that road traffic is back to normal and the shops, restaurants and cafes are busy again. Don’t bother trying to eat out Mon-Wed unless you booked a week in advance! Speaking to family that managed to get reservations, the tourist areas in Devon and Cornwall are very, VERY busy.

  So I suspect the economy *is* coming back, but not as it was before.
• 6 JimJim August 22, 2020, 8:34 am

  @Matt, adding to that, after our staycation last week in Chester, Shrewsbury, Ludlow, Malvern and Bury St Edmunds. I can confirm that bookings were essential in the evening Mon – Weds, and in the first three places at lunch time too for the better eateries. Most, when asked, reported bookings slightly down on the first week of the offer but were still managing to fill the reduced capacity they were operating at. Tourism was evident in all places although not overly crowded. A lot of locals were taking advantage of the meal deal.
  I will say that we were careful to tip our servers handsomely at a rate above our normal level at the full cost of the bill, something that servers were reporting reduced income on when asked.
  JimJim
• 7 Neverland August 22, 2020, 8:53 am

  Millions of people died in the Spanish flu epidemic in the early 20th century and the Black Death in the Middle Ages. The world didn’t stop turning.

  There is plenty of money out there to fix all the problems but it resides in a relatively few people’s portfolios.

  Some of them read this blog.

  I’m happy to make a couple of predictions:
  – taxes are going up, probably a lot
  – in 20 years no one will be talking about conovirus apart from something that happened just before the UK left the EU
• 8 Warren Bogle August 22, 2020, 8:58 am

  I came off furlough two weeks ago thankfully but my company has announced a collective consultation for most members of staff which will give them the opportunity to make us redundant if we are not busy in October.

  I do think we are going to see further government support if the economy doesn’t recover. If you look at the US they are likely to provide further stimulus and the rest of the world will no doubt follow. This is a big shift from past austerity.

  As for equities, I question why the equity premium when the Fed Put is so reliably in place and expect further boost when a tested vaccine is announced. Also, what are the alternatives?
• 9 Gentleman's Family Finances August 22, 2020, 9:05 am

  In Scotland – Hospitality where I live seems to be back to normal – queues outside cafes all week not just Monday to Wednesday.
  Don’t know about the evening/night economy.
  Shopping centres and things like that are still very quiet.

  Traffic seems up from the trough but I do know that there is live information gathering but it doesn’t seem to be publicly available (maybe someone knows better) but overall down.
• 10 Brod August 22, 2020, 9:11 am

  I think this is the lull before the storm.

  My wife works for one of the bigger consultancies and their Q4 projections are looking pretty dreadful. Billing of just 50% this quarter, projecting 40% for Q4. Their clients aren’t planning big, new projects anytime soon. So the cuts will come, not to retail staff this time, but smart, well-paid young professionals, many renting in London. Who will pay their rent? Maybe the younger ones will move back in with Mum & Dad. More voids, less demand for rentals means more BTL mortgages not being paid or falling rents, eventually increasing repossessions? Less money circulating generally. And do they really need so many higher grades? School fees, holidays two or three times a year, those lovely his ‘n’ hers Beemers on plan?

  Personally, I haven’t been in the office since February, so haven’t used public transport or bought a sandwich or had a beer after work. My work shirts are hung up and gathering dust. We are though, making one last push on the house to get it to how we want it (I predict we’ll be spending a lot more time here) then I’m waiting for my wife to be made redundant. But we prepared for winter when the living was easy. The offset mortgage covering 95% of the outstanding; an emergency fund for 2 years; ISAs if needed.

  Although I’m a civil servant, I expect there to be a large redundancy programme next year. Luckily, I can go into drawdown and should be able to take my small civil service pension early if the terms are the same as last time (though I don’t expect them to be.) I could probably replace my post-tax income indefinitely but it would be a very bare existence with no one earning.
• 11 Matthew August 22, 2020, 10:49 am

  Its good to see a wall of worry that we may have something to climb up

  I think the people still in the markets/ buying them up are by and large the people not at risk of redundancy. People and companies have now had time to prepare for a 2nd spike and no deal. People are still spending one way or another as the rishi dishis show, and when that ends they’ll buy takeaways and cars and netflix with their spare money. Its all already priced in

  If there was no upcoming vaccine it would be bleak for some sectors but it does look/feel likely to come

  Btw more people would use sanitiser if you also supplied moisturiser – that sanitiser really dries your hands quickly, not nice
• 12 ermine August 22, 2020, 11:10 am

  > rather precisely say their work?

  I do mean work. The better off were self-employed, and their area of occupation – very loosely speaking tours and tourism related has fallen dramatically, another lot are associated with broadly event management, that ain’t going anywhere fast for a while. The less well off were minimum wage ZHC. One of them, absolute hat tip to her enterprise, manage to get a non-ZHC min wage employed job in a shop catering to what few visitors there are.

  The self-employed crew are basically stuffed. If they have savings they might be able to make it because there is something unusual about the place which means visitors will pick up again – there is some evidence the low-water mark has turned, and as long as we allow Europeans into the country after Brexit they may have some custom. Whether the event restarts is currently unknown. Farming is currently surviving but very variable, and what happened to catering getting turned off overnight was an absolute bastard for a lot of dairy producers.

  I admire the enterprise on one young couple who have set up a farm stall on a piece of waste ground which sells fine milk direct from local farms, and another crew who used to rent out holiday cottages but now run a farm shop. There are probably enough retirees around to keep them going into next year. We eat a damn sight better in exchange for paying a little bit more. And these facilities are pretty much open air with some shelter against the rain.

  Anecdotally, eat out to help out has helped the decent restaurant kickstart under a new name – they were fortunate enough to not have to stiff their local suppliers by going bust, but the chef heads it up now. We’ve done our bit.

  Cornwall was absolutely rammed. I am never, ever, going to go to a campsite again while the kids aren’t at school. If that means I don’t go on holiday for the next year, well, so be it. And fellow Brits, for God’s sake take your damn rubbish home if the bins are overflowing!

  London is a different country 😉
• 13 The Investor August 22, 2020, 11:37 am

  Thanks for the comments all. 🙂 Does sound like there’s a difference between London and much of the rest of the UK. I’ve heard to phrase ‘doughnut cities’ to describe the likes of London with Covid — hollowed out centers, fatter suburbs — and perhaps we’re seeing that, too.

  Re: The GDP maths, agreed, I tweaked my copy to give a range of a 4-5% GDP drawdown as precision is clearly a bit spurious here anyway. 🙂

  @ermine — Thanks for the extra colour. It does sound like we’re talking about /seeing broadly the same thing. Self-employed / small businesses that can’t access support getting mullered, others waiting for the shoe to drop. The exception is the zero hour contract crew. Those I know like this I’d call freelancers and they earn well. I must admit my London circle doesn’t include many in that bracket except the guys I know at the local indie coffee shop etc. Family in the provinces are different but so far are holding up.
• 14 JimJim August 22, 2020, 1:11 pm

  As an afterthought, and for information, we had our Staycation away from the hot-spots as we live a mile away from the lake district national park and it is rammed. To the point that even the periphery is suffering holiday traffic at the moment. A chain of pubs we usually visit, Brunnings and Price, reported at one site a large turnover of staff and positive recruitment. Anecdotal but interesting.
  TI, The math reads better, just me not liking the percentage down then up (same =same) thing that it looked like 🙂
  JimJim
• 15 Matthew August 22, 2020, 1:20 pm

  Zero hour contracts might’ve saved a lot of companies going bust, since its easier to scale down at short notice

  Also those that don’t survive will make market space for those that do, but since when small cap companies can still be fairly substantial compared to sole traders maybe some would be more predator than prey
• 16 Alex August 22, 2020, 1:25 pm

  Would I be correct in saying that the very low interest rate environment that we are in makes buying bonds now a bad idea? Because the bond yields will be lower?

  However, equities haven’t had a severe protracted bear market since 2008, so equities seem overvalued at the moment (if we assume reversion to the mean by means of some inevitable crisis intrinsic to the financial system in the near future, e.g. banks leveraging themselves on collateralized loan obligations). So in this circumstance, does it make sense to invest lump sums into equities or bonds?

  Some general thoughts would be helpful/interesting if you’re not allowed to make specific advice!
• 17 Richard August 22, 2020, 1:29 pm

  Cashflow is king. I am of the view that this will actually make the economy stronger by sweeping away bad / zombie companies and allowing new / better companies to take their place. The issue is most people are unlikely to have the cash to survive the transition intact if they get kicked out of their current job. Plus needing new skills means a likely cost of retraining and starting again.

  I think it likely there will be a rush to the bottom for salary / pricing (for freelancer types) as it becomes an employer market. I know I am considering entering the freelance space now…..
• 18 Vanguardfan August 22, 2020, 1:38 pm

  Anyone working in the arts and entertainment has seen their work and their income vanish, with very little prospect of return in the medium term. Obviously some have qualified for govnt support. I know a few musicians and actors, things are looking pretty dire in that sector.

  It will of course take a little while for the true extent of the job cuts in the wider economy to become apparent, as businesses work out whether/how they can make money in the coming months.
• 19 Ruby August 22, 2020, 1:54 pm

  @ The Investor – I find it hard to see a sustained recovery so long as HMG’s covid strategy remains so incoherent and capricious, not matter how much Haldane tries to talk it up. For all the fighting talk about getting the economy back on its feet, confidence is endlessly being undermined by the messaging – ‘second wave coming’, ‘national lock down may be necessary again’, ‘ foreign country x on the naughty step at 24 hours notice’. The result, of course, is that people remain fearful and confidence levels are low, and this manifests itself in the savings rate going up, capex being deferred, and vacancies falling. While the mood music remains this way it’s difficult to see the spring in our collective steps returning and I suspect an extension of the furlough scheme is inevitable. If the messaging changed to one of greater emphasis on us having to ‘live with it’ and hospitalisations and deaths, rather than endless hysterics about infections levels, perhaps people would begin to believe the worst is really over, become rather more optimistic in outlook and start deploying capital for the longer term/starting new businesses etc. I won’t be holding my breath!
• 20 Hariseldon August 22, 2020, 7:13 pm

  @Alex

  Bond yields suggest that future returns will be low for some time but bonds have appeared expensive for many years now….. 0.5% will appear attractive if equities kick down 25%.

  As regards the valuation level of equities, absolutely no one knows, they might not know it but they haven’t got a clue ! The market price of equities is by definition the presently correct level, in the view of buyers and sellers of equities.

  Those low bond yields tend to support higher equity valuations.
• 21 Alex August 22, 2020, 9:00 pm

  @Hariseldon

  Thanks
• 22 Dave August 23, 2020, 7:19 am

  You are correct. The virus was and is the single self inflicted biggest over reaction ever.

  The scores are in boys. Luckily when you look at the chart produced by the ONS, the 5 year average flu deaths have almost halved but the “CV” figures handily went up by almost the same as the flu deaths fell.

  Good job the symptoms are so different or they could have got confused. And someone might suggest all we did was rebrand flu.

  With millions still on “furlough” or unemployment deferral scheme as it is know, the next few Q stats are going to be horrible.

  The government still pretending there is any danger to anyone is pure political party damage limitation when the media start reporting that the overall deaths from this year is a tiny peak that is 8th in the past 28 years.

  https://hectordrummond.com/2020/07/17/another-jaw-dropping-graph/
• 23 Simon T August 23, 2020, 7:50 am

  Interesting links this weeks thanks
  From deep in the Lincolnshire Fens I can quite happily say that I know of nobody who has been affected workwise. Most of the people I know are Farmers, Self Employed Tradesmen (construction, bricklayers, chippies, joiners, decorators, roofers, fencers – you get the idea) and a few Engineers.
  An interesting aside, the price of Rib of Beef at the local Butchers has gone up 100% and they aren’t even bother sourcing it anymore. Reason why.. The Mon-Wed eat out scheme, the catering industry has basically bought out the supply for those wishing to have a Ribeye steak at a discount.
  And another interesting aside, the house prices have gone up again this month – so maybe 15-20% in a few months, most of the viewings are from people down south.
• 24 Simon T August 23, 2020, 7:58 am

  .. and something that caught my eye this week..
  The 1957 and 1968 flu outbreaks in the UK, both with horrifying death tolls (in the same league as the UK Covid today)
  I lived through the later one unknowingly (as a 3 year old), and the deaths were in the younger age range as opposed to the current pandemic.
  Lancet article here https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31201-0/fulltext
• 25 D August 23, 2020, 8:30 am

  Not so long ago, staying in a cottage or on a campsite in the UK would have been called a “holiday”. Taking a week off work but staying in your own home, perhaps because you couldn’t afford to go on holiday, would have been called a “staycation”. This year it feels like anyone who couldn’t have their usual 2 weeks in Florida or wherever is whingeing on social media about their “staycation” in a crappy UK seaside town. If the UK economy is as screwed as it sounds, people might have to revise their expectations going forward.

  From 1st August companies had to pay employers NI and pension contributions on furloughed employee wages. From 1st September they also have to pay 10% of their gross earnings. After “standing by our employees” and doing the right thing for 5 months, the time unfortunately came for us to lay most people off this month. I’m sure we’re not alone in reaching this economic reality.
• 26 Al Cam August 23, 2020, 8:52 am

  As I am neither a Biologist or a medic I found the following, admittedly rather long, article interesting and it is currently not behind the usual ECONOMIST pay wall
  https://www.economist.com/essay/2020/08/20/viruses-have-big-impacts-on-ecology-and-evolution-as-well-as-human-health?fsrc=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2020-08-21&utm_content=article-link-1&etear=nl_today_1
• 27 xxd09 August 23, 2020, 10:09 am

  Truly it’s a reset moment those of us interested in finance were expecting We thought it would be due to large debts being run up by countries
  The virus has however turned out to be the tipping point-the last straw etc etc!
  Will it be a bounce back with all the current inefficiencies removed or wipeout
  Probably a return to a recognisable normal eventually but it will take years with many casualties – in finance but mostly in other areas of people’s personal lives-holidays abroad, free speech,university education, music and arts etc etc
  xxd09
• 28 Tony Edgecombe August 23, 2020, 10:40 am

  @D That’s been bothering me. In. my mind a staycation was staying at home and taking days out locally.

  Anyway we are off to Devon in a month or so, hopefully all the brats will be locked away in school by then.
• 29 Dave August 23, 2020, 10:45 am

  Well said Ruby, the whole parliament (Gov and Opposition) have been appalling. Endless fear laden messages. In ability to equate rising “positive tests” with increased testing.

  Rates of tuberculosis in this country are currently higher than the “pandemic” yes we don’t shut down anything for that.
• 30 Matthew August 23, 2020, 10:49 am

  @dave – theres no quick acceptable way for the government to say not to worry about it, the actual years of life lost might be minimal but “its the cause of” (or straw that broke the camels back) of so many that even trump & co had to act. Also elderly dying off is not good for conservative vote chances

  I do think though that if we can demonstrate that we can get the death rate down to that of flu, we can justify letting it rip – a tentative step was recently in saying we wont close schools again
• 31 Dave August 23, 2020, 10:52 am

  On a similar note. The man was 100% accurate.

  “ Dr. John Ioannidis, the C.F. Rehnborg Chair in Disease Prevention at Stanford University.

  In a March 17 STAT article, Ioannidis warned the world was looking at what could turn out to be a “once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.” He worried central planners were making sweeping and reflexive changes without sufficient data.

  Locking people up without knowing the fatality risk of COVID-19 could have severe social and financial consequences that could be totally irrational, Ioannidis warned.”

  https://fee.org/articles/john-ioannidis-warned-covid-19-could-be-a-once-in-a-century-data-fiasco-he-was-right/
• 32 Jonathan August 23, 2020, 10:58 am

  Thanks @AlCam, that is a great widely ranging biological essay. It is odd that it doesn’t seem to be credited, the author clearly has an impressive mind.
• 33 Dave August 23, 2020, 11:00 am

  Hi Matthew,

  The Norwegian Prime minister stood up on TV a couple months ago and apologised for “panicking and over reacting” to the virus.
  They realised the whole thing was over in March but they didn’t have the data at the time. Now they did. Life returned to normal in Norway. Round of applause for Norway’s PM

  With regards to flu, The article above points out that this “pandemic” is actually only the 8th largest “flu season” in the past 28 years.

  The government are just trying now to back out of the corner they painted themselves into

  It’s all just politics now.
• 34 PC August 23, 2020, 12:13 pm

  Glad to see I’m not the only one who thinks of a holiday in England as ++ a holiday ++ and a STAYcation as STAYing at home while being off work.
• 35 weenie August 23, 2020, 1:16 pm

  Like you, TI, thus far, no one in my circle has lost their job. The one friend who was put on furlough and who has since returned to work described the 2 months off she had as “the best break she’d ever had”. It was a little disconcerting that I felt a little jealous of her time off, yet I would not have been happy if my employer had put me on furlough.

  The good news is that we are still recruiting, although it must be weird for our new starters to begin their career working from home instead of meeting their team in the office.

  Local traffic is nearly back to normal in terms of jams; shops neither feel empty nor full, just steady.

  And I’m with @PC – a staycation in my mind is where I stay at home while off work.
• 36 FI Warrior August 23, 2020, 1:45 pm

  Apparently, the main reason the Swedes were relatively unpanicked with this viral drama is that the public trust their govt. and health officials quite a lot. Interestingly, this has something to do with their political setup, whereby (if I remember correctly) the general health experts are genuinely autonomous and wield real independent power. As such, if politicians want to get political capital out of a crisis or create panic to enrich their corporate backers, they can’t easily do it. This is mostly why there has been a fact-based, hysteria-free policy, reacting to the constant stream of incoming data, instead of knee-jerk aping of what everyone else is doing. So an electorate mature enough to think for themselves. And if with the wisdom of hindsight, this virus turns out to be just another aggressive flu equivalent, they will be grateful they didn’t trash their economy.
• 37 Neverland August 23, 2020, 5:32 pm

  @FI Warrior

  No, the reason that the Swedish didn’t lock down their population is that for the last few years they have been preparing for a war with the Russians

  As a pretty small country the only possible strategy is involve their whole population in the consensual effort to prepare for war

  So when you’ve preparing your population for a crisis for a few years and one comes along, what do you do?

  Panic like headless chickens (a.k.a. the English approach) or follow through with your plan to involve your whole population on a consensual basis?

  They just followed the plan they had pretty much, ad libbing the virus part.

  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44208921

  There are at least four material reasons I can think of that the Swedish approach would not have worked in the UK:

  1. Trust in the UK government vs. Sweden (the one you identify)
  2. Preparedness
  3. Quality of healthcare in UK vs. Sweden
  4. Quality of old age care in UK vs. Sweden
• 38 Ruby August 23, 2020, 5:54 pm

  @ FI Warrior – what I find admirable about the Swedish response, particularly Tengell’s, is that he stuck to his guns. However independent the set may be over there he must have been under enormous pressure to fall in with the response of other countries. No one would have criticised him had he done that and all credit that he chose to different. He may or may not be proven correct. Meanwhile, back in the hysterical zone, I see that England recorded it’s first zero for hospital deaths a few days ago but I haven’t seen even a mention of this on the news. Similarly, of 140/- hospital beds under 500 are occupied by covid patients. c/f #19 I find economic recovery is inconceivable if we’re not even interested in acknowledging that things may be turning around and using it to start restoring confidence.
• 39 Factor August 23, 2020, 6:09 pm

  Off topic but in these sobering times I’m sure Monevatorites won’t begrudge me my moment of quiet joy. My younger daughter received her GCSE results for 11 subjects on Thursday, from a state grammar school, and achieved 9 A* grades and 2 A grades. Yes, teacher assessed but the school is always unflinchingly fair and even-handed, and the grades merely reflect the similar end of year results that my daughter has regularly gained as she progressed through the school.
• 40 Seeking Fire August 23, 2020, 6:26 pm

  Deaths from CV in the UK seem very likely to have been reduced from the lockdown – social distancing works. The UK is not Sweden. The UK has a population of 66m vs 10m in Sweden. London has a population of 9m, Stockholm has a population of <1m. We have another 9m in the south east. England population density is 275 people per sq km vs sweden at 25 per sq km. and so on. Had we followed Sweden's approach the number of deaths would have been substantially greater with the NHS being overwhelmed. CVID is not the flu, overall mortality is greater than the flu and for pensioners very substantially greater than the flu – all the data supports that. Moreover, it is not correct to suggest the lock down was the [sole] cause of the economic downturn – activity across all areas was falling substantially prior to the lock down. So in my eyes, the data shows that the lock down has averted a substantial amount of deaths. We have followed the approach that most other European nations have and many other countries have globally and so if the UK is wrong most other countries are also wrong. Having said all of that, a much better counterpoint to that argument is Germany who seem to better than everyone economically and controlling viruses and I think appears to be the model from which we need to learn from – It looks as if they protected elderly people much better. So I struggle with the Sweden narrative a bit.

  On the other hand….I think the approach was wrong but this reflects where we are as a society. As a society we are trying to suppress volatility to negative tail events (eliminate death, eliminate a economic downturn, save any jobs, save all businesses, health capacity, pump up the stock market). We did it in 2008 and we are doing it again now. But such actions will definitely have future negative consequences – increased debt, zombie businesses, people dying from other health conditions, lack of children education, less money to pay for future public services, a more vulnerable country to future extreme events and so on. And so, I believe that as a society, we should not have 'locked ourselves down' and broadly speaking got on with it and accepted the deaths. But society is very different to how it was fifty years ago, perhaps because life expectancy has increased so much. Death is seen as unacceptable. The NHS is the national religion despite the mistake of pushing people into care homes that spread CV. I feel we are more focussed on the elderly who are at risk than the young who clearly are not. Schools should never have shut. Under no circumstances AT ALL should they shut again given this is not particularly dangerous to young people. We should start prioritising young people over elderly and economic growth over mostly everything as it pays for everything instead of money printing. There should be no future lock down except for elderly & vulnerable people who should be asked to stay at home to protect them with adequate support financial & social care provided. If there is taxation increases, it should be on elderly – raise pension age, eliminate triple lock, NI on pensions given the societal lock down was largely for their benefit. Children are already going to pay for it through the £2 trillion net debt and reduced funding for public services in the future. But I wouldn't raise taxes at all given the UK can borrow at negative rates or virtually zero. I doubt the govt has the guts for any of this. So meandering rant over, which no doubt lots of people can disagree with although if you do what is the plan if there is no vaccine?

  I agree with the author and others that the economic fall out is looking very bad for the winter. Hard to believe that my net wealth is up materially since the pandemic in nominal terms. I guess it's a reflection of how irrelevant the UK is in isolation to the rest of the world given I'm heavily tilted to global equities and other global assets e.g. Gold, $TIPS. Back in March, I made a comment (a few people laughed) that I felt this would be accelerate a shift from west to east – the economic growth chart seems to support this. The UK and much of Europe is slowly sliding down the scale economically and with it influence. I keep recalling from the book 'when money dies' on Weimar Germany of a house wife who bought any share available to try and retain some purchasing power to her money. To some degree this may be occurring here. I struggle with the GMO link. Money has to flow somewhere – you have to asset allocate – so if the discount rate is zero than equities naturally should be higher. Equally could it really be a surprise if equities fell 50% from here?

  Tail risks for the UK (Brexit, rising debt, an economy with low productivity, limited innovation and heavily dependent on a few sectors, ageing population, weak political leaders across the board, lack of innovation in the economy) continues to rise. What to do – global equities, gold and $TIPS for me with sterling reserves. I note the cost of $ insurance has fallen given the $ is now 1.31 vs 1.20 recently. With US$ debt of near $20 trillion (does anyone believe that's been paid back?!?) – the outlook for the $ doesn't seem that strong but if you have some assets in a fiat currency the $ feels to me a safer bet than the £. I'd back the US over the UK any day!
• 41 Ruby August 23, 2020, 6:48 pm

  @ Seeking Fire – good meandering rant! It often seems to be overlooked that those who are most vulnerable to this virus, the over 65’s, are already permanently furloughed by merit of them receiving state or other pensions. Them taking steps to protect themselves while the less vulnerable but economically active start going about rebooting the economy seems to me to be a more measured way of going about this. That’s not to overlook the under 65’s who are vulnerable, but economically the burden is significantly less. I don’t suppose it’ll happen that way though.
  Anecdotally, a chum’s son goes back to school in a week or two to start A levels but it will be a just 3 days a week. I have a suspicion that the back to school process will be this Government’s Waterloo and while one suspects Williamson will obviously be a goner I won’t be surprised if the fallout is greater still.
• 42 Vanguardfan August 23, 2020, 8:48 pm

  @ruby. The one critical step that needed to be implemented, if we were serious about protecting the elderly from increasing transmission of the virus, is routine testing in care homes and for home care staff. Without that, rising community transmission will ultimately find its way back into the care homes and the homes of the vulnerable elderly.
  It was promised in July. Still no sign of it happening. That really tells you what you need to know about the government’s lack of seriousness about actually taking effective action.
  Doesn’t augur well for schools, does it?

  Instead, we get lazy, illogical and ineffective local lockdowns slapped on without even a coherent framework. I am in despair of the incompetence of the government. I don’t even care what it’s overall plan is, herd immunity, suppression, eradication or whatever, I just wish they would show some indication of actually giving a damn about the population.
• 43 Vanguardfan August 23, 2020, 8:51 pm

  And frankly if we do get another round of care home outbreaks in the winter, there will be absolutely no excuse for it this time.
• 44 Al Cam August 24, 2020, 9:35 am

  Seems to me that the focus of a lot of peoples C-19 complaints – the government – is both misplaced and somewhat naïve. As I see it, the real “problem” is much closer to home.
  Social distancing works but you must practice it, no exceptions, no ifs, no buts, no sometimes, no religious/cultural exceptions, no maybe’s!

  Thus, IMO, the best the government can hope to do in the face of a clearly non-compliant populace is support development of an effective vaccine.

  Lastly, Brits are well-known for their inventiveness and creativity, a lot of which essentially springs from their individualistic approach to life. Thus, wide-spread non-compliance with social distancing should not really be a surprise to anyone.
• 45 Neverland August 24, 2020, 9:54 am

  @Vanguardfan

  The government has no plan beyond managing the day’s news grid through a set of announcements that play well with focus groups in the midlands and hoping that a vaccine turns up soon.

  Turns out electing lazy morally vacuous incompetence to high office can have adverse consequences, who knew???
• 46 FI Warrior August 24, 2020, 10:31 am

  @Neverland, interesting on Sweden. @Ruby, indeed, you would think that if the narrative being pumped out 24/7, wall-to-wall on the mainstream media seems to have switched to spiraling cv cases but with no mention of the more relevant actual deaths definitely attributed to cv, then the logic would be it is now relatively mild and not something to live in terror of. It’s harder to row back on a policy that you went all-in on though and easier in a blame culture to muddle on by copying what the majority are saying and doing, safe in the knowledge that sufficiently scared people don’t think much.
• 47 Tony Edgecombe August 24, 2020, 10:55 am

  @Al cam There are two sides to this, I suspect the main problem the government is going to face is getting the other half of the population out again. Lockdown or not a lot of people are going to sit this whole thing out and I can’t say I blame them.
• 48 Griff August 24, 2020, 11:18 am

  Seems to me a lot of keyboard warriors
  both in the daily rags and here are quick to call the government for their handling of the virus but I bet were as frightened as I was at the beginning and was happy that the government did what they did to prevent the NHS tipping over. Nobody and I mean not even the loyal vanguard followers on here knew where we would be in August with the death rate thankfully falling and people creeping back out for a pint and even god forbid back to work. I personally know of one person who has been in hospital since March and is still in a bad way. As for work I’m fortunate in that I don’t know of anybody who has lost their job but then I only know/associate with bread and butter workers who will no doubt plod on with the 8 till 5 after all this is just a ‘remember when story’.
• 49 Ruby August 24, 2020, 11:42 am

  @ Griff – I sure lots of us were anxious at the beginning, it would have been rather irrational not to have been in the face of the unknown, but in many of us that lifted pretty quickly. The idea that lock down was required to ‘protect the NHS’ or ‘build capacity’ may have had some merit but, if that was the case, the whole strategy seems to have been a pretty spectacular failure. We now essentially have a one disease healthcare system and no other disease is considered as important as covid. The patient backlog will take years to clear, it’s difficult to see a GP face to face and I gather A&E may now become by appointment only. In addition the extra capacity is now being dismantled. What’s left is a health service that is deified but no longer capable of functioning as an institution that provides a wide range of healthcare services to all comers. It has been materially downgraded and one suspects the health of the nation will be infinitely poorer for it.

  @ al cam – I think that’s looking at it from the wrong end of the telescope. This government has never trusted the good sense of the people but insisted in regulating our response to this to the finest degree. People are not stupid and they will take the precautionary action they consider necessary as they have done for thousands of years. As for the vaccine, well let’s hope, but micro managing a population while scientists goo off chasing rainbows doesn’t seem terribly sustainable to me.
• 50 The Weasel August 24, 2020, 12:33 pm

  I’m one of the 1 in six who is back to the office in London. But only because I’m being forced to by my backward company.

  Having everyone commute again is 1) pointless, for those of us who can work from anywhere, and 2) unfeasible, given the rules. You can’t socially distance in a packed train.

  As a side note, southeastern has deployed more personnel than usual at their London stations, whose only job seems to be to welcome the 10 or so commuters to the station! I find it extremely odd! Unless it’s some sort of job-retention scheme, why do that now? They didn’t do it before!
• 51 xxd09 August 24, 2020, 12:39 pm

  Rather agree with the previous few posts
  Speaking as a 74 year old+wife of same age -are in the at risk category
  We find……
  Our friends divide brutally into never going out again or going on as before but following guidelines
  Most unfortunately are in still scared stiff camp-sign of old age-?.risk evaluations are harder as cognitive functions decline ?
  We have traveled from Scotland to see/stay with our children in Newcastle and Glasgow
  Our children from London have have stayed in Scotland with us for over 2 weeks
  My wife has always shopped in Tesco and Lidl
  Life pretty much as normal with the restrictions observed
  Are we a bit fatalistic-at our age we have done most of what we wanted to do and certainly don’t want our grandchildren and children’s lives screwed so that we have another year or two
  This is not the attitude of many of our friends
  One feels nowadays in a shipwreck it would no longer women and children first but every man for him/her self
  Seems we live in very selfish times
  xxd09
• 52 Neverland August 24, 2020, 12:40 pm

  @Ruby

  ‘This government has never trusted the good sense of the people but insisted in regulating our response to this to the finest degree.’

  Interesting piece of revisionism you wrote there.

  Probably one of the big reasons for infection taking off in the UK was the government being so slow to act in March and the whole strategy was that they ‘trusted the good sense of the people’.

  Then somebody did some modelling about what the death rate looked like with the infection rate the UK was likely to get and they all panicked.

  Other governments that acted faster and more decisively seem to have had a better first phase.

  Lets face facts – we have the worst death rate and the worst recession in Europe – quite a feat.
• 53 Neverland August 24, 2020, 12:47 pm

  @Ruby

  ‘This government has never trusted the good sense of the people but insisted in regulating our response to this to the finest degree.’

  Thats a spectacular piece of revisionism from you right there.

  For almost a whole month around February and March the government ‘trusted the good sense of the people’ and did nothing whistling hopefully and washing its hands, while other countries took actions.

  With the worst death rate in Europe and the worse recession it doesn’t look like that was the smartest move.
• 54 The Investor August 24, 2020, 12:50 pm

  @all — This is a stimulating conversation but please lean heavy on being civil to keep it constructive. Thanks!
• 55 KayD August 24, 2020, 12:55 pm

  I’ve just come back from a weekend jolly in London and it was not a ghost town. The tube was not empty, neither was the Tower of London, nor Soho, nor China Town and Oxford Street seemed to have a fair few shoppers wandering down on Sunday. I heard lots of regional British accents and also quite a few European languages being spoken as I wandered around. There were French registered cars in our hotel car park. To me it did not appear to be empty of tourists and they seemed to be spending money in the shops and cafes. It was busy!
  I live in a touristy part of the East Midlands and it has been busy all summer.
  My son has started his first proper full time job today in a buildings materials supply company after finishing his degree this summer. He did not get an especially good degree.
  From seeing all this I don’t think our economy is in as bad a state as the media is saying.
• 56 Ruby August 24, 2020, 12:58 pm

  @ Neverland – The call to moderate contacts, wash hands and so on went out in early March I recall, some weeks before lock down, and had the desired effect of bringing down infections. I don’t think it’s disputed anywhere anymore, even by Chris Whitty, that infections were declining at the point of lock down but the government, as you say, lost it’s nerve. I don’t think anyone really knows whether lock downs were helpful for countries having a ‘good first phase’, or attributable to other reasons, conflicting evidence seems to abound. Whether they were effective or not I don’t expect any government to suggest they weren’t anytime soon!
• 57 Neverland August 24, 2020, 1:23 pm

  @Ruby

  ‘The call to moderate contacts, wash hands and so on went out in early March I recall, some weeks before lock down, and had the desired effect of bringing down infections […] I don’t think it’s disputed anywhere anymore, even by Chris Whitty, that infections were declining at the point of lock down [..]’

  You recall incorrectly and it is disputed.

  UK lockdown didn’t even start until 16 March, when the health secretary finally told the House of Commons that all unnecessary social contact should cease.

  UK infections plateaued only in mid-April.

  Proof: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

  You can write all the lies you want but don’t be surprised when you get caught out by the truth.
• 58 Vanguardfan August 24, 2020, 1:23 pm

  At this stage, I’m more interested in how we move forward than rehashing discussion about March.
  It seems to me that relying solely on individual choices is not going to be very effective in protecting the people that are at greatest risk. Government action is, unfortunately, necessary in a number of areas. I’ve already highlighted the need to keep older people safe, especially those who need personal care and therefore cannot socially distance. Likewise there are many people for whom social distancing is not an option, due to their work or living circumstances. If you can choose the extent to which you distance, you should recognise that as a luxury not everyone has.

  I also think it could be a mistake to imagine that because we currently have very few serious illnesses and deaths relative to the number of infections, this means that we are out of the woods. It depends entirely on whether transmission (currently highest in young people, and I don’t blame them for getting on with their lives) spreads into more vulnerable age groups again. I think this is entirely possible, and needs action (yes, from government) to ensure it doesn’t get out of hand.
  I am also watching with some trepidation what happens when schools and universities reopen. I have skin in both those games, I am not worried about the health risks to my offspring but I am very worried about continued disruption to their learning and lives.

  For my own life, I am socialising quite actively, within the rules, and I am getting on with my life as far as possible. I will probably stop going to restaurants, and limit my social contacts, if local cases appear again (currently very few in my county, single figures). It is not a normal life however. I have two hobbies I am still prevented from pursuing, much to my frustration, and I want to travel again. I can’t see my life looking normal until we either get a vaccine, or enough global immunity for the vaccine to not make much difference. I’m hoping for summer 2021.
• 59 Neverland August 24, 2020, 1:45 pm

  @Vanguardfan

  ‘At this stage, I’m more interested in how we move forward than rehashing discussion about March.’

  You usually talk a lot of sense but here I’m going to disagree with you.

  You let people rewrite the facts and you end up with Donald Trump.
• 60 Ruby August 24, 2020, 1:51 pm

  @ Neverland – Matt Hancock addressed the HoC on 16th March and indicated that all unnecessary contact should be avoided but lock down proper didn’t begin until 23rd when Johnson addressed the nation. The peak of deaths was April 8th and your plateauing of infections would suggest a peak death date of early May. I’m sorry you consider my posts to be lies – c/f @ The Investor re civility.
  @ Vanguard Fan – agree it is more interesting, and a thoughtful post. I don’t really get the trade off some scientists have spoken about of schools v pubs – children don’t go to pubs and I don’t think many parents of school age children do as a matter of routine either. Maybe they do. As an early retired I find the travel restrictions most frustrating and, like you, find it hard to see any real change prior to Summer 2021.
• 61 xxd09 August 24, 2020, 2:05 pm

  Scottish schools are entering their third week
  My son a Deputy Head -so far so good -some recalcitrant teachers-how do you disinfect a guitar ?
  If Scotland can manage 3 weeks without catastrophe surely England cannot be far behind
  A daughter -governor in a prison-never stopped working-how could you? I think-don’t quote me about 25 deaths overall-prisoners and prison officers-70000+ prisoners
  Other daughter a GP-cases in ICUs up to 70 from none over last couple of weeks-spike
  “Long Covid” a problem if you get it-not a big respecter of age-numbers unavailable
  xxd09
• 62 Neverland August 24, 2020, 2:12 pm

  @Ruby

  ‘I don’t think it’s disputed anywhere anymore, even by Chris Whitty, that infections were declining at the point of lock down […]’

  ‘Matt Hancock addressed the HoC on 16th March and indicated that all unnecessary contact should be avoided but lock down proper didn’t begin until 23rd when Johnson addressed the nation.’

  Facts, UK Covid-19 infections, daily:

  1 March: 12
  16 March: 152
  23 March:957
  1 April: 4,567
  16 April: 4,618
  23 April: 4,583

  Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

  In the words of Gavin Williamson regarding Russia ‘Go away and shut up.”
• 63 Neverland August 24, 2020, 2:22 pm

  @xxd09

  ‘If Scotland can manage 3 weeks without catastrophe surely England cannot be far behind’

  I’m not so sure don’t forget that large parts of the north and Leciester are already in local lockdowns to suppress infection rates: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/north-west-of-england-local-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do
• 64 Ruby August 24, 2020, 2:34 pm

  @ Neverland – your referenced chart (and extracts) record infections by date reported not infections on a particular day (how could it be otherwise). Peak deaths was April 8th, indisputable, from which we can infer peak infections was some 3 weeks earlier ( being the average infection to death period) and prior to lock down. Peak infections following peak deaths as you suggest is rather implausible. If you’re really curious about understanding this, which I doubt, I believe Bristol University did a lot of work on it and I’m sure you’ll find it. Anyway, I think this has been done to death.
• 65 Neverland August 24, 2020, 2:49 pm

  @Ruby

  ‘Peak deaths was April 8th, indisputable, from which we can infer peak infections was some 3 weeks earlier ( being the average infection to death period) and prior to lock down.’

  Disputed, facts don’t bear you out, again:

  6 April: 531
  7 April: 1,009
  8 April: 922
  […]
  20 April: 536
  21 April: 1,116
  22 April: 725

  Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

  But go ahead, keep making stuff up.
• 66 Vanguardfan August 24, 2020, 3:02 pm

  Regarding trade offs between pubs and schools. It’s necessary to look at the problem at a population level. The virus is spread by connections between people, so simplistically, the more connections between individuals in a population, the more opportunities to spread.
  When my son goes back to school, I will suddenly be indirectly connected to maybe a hundred more families in my locality. If all of those are also visiting restaurants, having lunch with relatives, inviting friends round for coffee or dinner, then the number of connections quickly explodes, and along with it transmission. If however we all limit our contacts, other than absolutely necessary for work or food shopping, you can see that the levels of community transmission will be lower. It’s not rocket science, it’s public health 😉 The trade offs are real.
  In Scotland, there have already been a number of school based clusters. In Berlin, more than 40 schools have had cases. It is certain that there will be school cases and clusters in England as well. We just have to hope that they will be contained quickly, and that sense and not hysteria prevails.

  Re universities. They seem to have flown under the radar so far, but I can imagine authorities in Manchester, Leeds, Bristol etc are feeling extremely nervous as they wait to welcome thousands of young people from across the country (and beyond) into student households…let’s say it will be interesting. I do feel sorry for other son starting university life in these times.

  I think it is quite possible that under these conditions the current very gradual increase in daily cases could accelerate rather quickly. I have to say I think Chris Whitty’s recent assessment seems realistic and measured.

  Have a look at the rate of increase in new cases in Spain over the last month – the gradient of the slope is almost as steep as in the first wave. New cases are reportedly high in Madrid, which was the epicentre of the first wave. I find this data the most concerning at the moment.
• 67 Jonathan August 24, 2020, 3:15 pm

  @Ruby, @Neverland, I think you are both making too much of single measurements when there was a lot of scatter. On a smoothed curve of deaths (7 day average) the highest value is at April 14th, which on a 3-week lag would suggest infections peaked around March 24th. Lockdown.

  However the rate of increase started to drop rather before that. That does imply actions taken before lockdown had an effect. There isn’t a point inflexion in the log curve but that change came some time in the first week of April implying a slowdown of infections in early to mid March. Personally I don’t think the exhortation to wash hands would have had a big impact – it seems only a few percent of infections are passed that way – and it will have been other changes in behaviour, possibly those changing to work from home before they were told to. At that point infections were heavily weighted towards London, and you could see from the graphs that were regularly shown when there were daily briefings that tube travel plummeted around mid March. In a crowded tube train it can be impossible to cover one’s mouth when coughing, and there will have been a lot of people within a 1 metre radius.
• 68 Learner August 24, 2020, 3:34 pm

  2020 has been a rollercoaster. Laid off suddenly at the end of April, new job in July. I haven’t met any of my coworkers face to face and the office is closed until early next year at least.

  An interesting feature of the US is that it’s actually impossible to obtain affordable health insurance at short notice (<45 days) and retail healthcare without insurance is a roll of the financial dice. That unemployed period was miserable – compete lockdown to minimize exposure.

  Some coworkers who were laid off at the same time in Spring are still looking for work, and Federal unemployment support has ended so this is going to play out through Fall, with the election looming.

  Most restaurants are open for outdoor dining, some for indoor. Fine in Summer but we will have snow in a couple of months. The hospitality industry is going to face a second hit when the weather turns, with no govt support this time.
• 69 Al Cam August 24, 2020, 4:10 pm

  And the local lockdown in Leicester, that was imposed at the end of June, has achieved precisely what in terms of the infection rate? Admittedly it seemed to start well, but take a look at https://digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/progression [and filter with the UTLA set to Leicester and look at the graph of cases and triages towards the bottom] to see how it has progressed since. For info, a daily case rate of 25 is equivalent to an infection rate of c. 50 per 100 thousand of population for a city the size of Leicester.

  My own pet explanation for this was given above at #44.

  Having said that, I am not sure anybody knows what is really going on and even if we are chasing the correct metrics.

  Now about that vaccine ………. because when all else is lost the future ….
• 70 Neverland August 24, 2020, 4:24 pm

  @Jonathan

  ‘ I think you are both making too much of single measurements when there was a lot of scatter. On a smoothed curve of deaths (7 day average) the highest value is at April 14th, which on a 3-week lag would suggest infections peaked around March 24th. Lockdown.’

  So you go and pick another single measurement which proves your pet theory?

  Jesus, wept.
• 71 Jonathan August 24, 2020, 4:40 pm

  @Neverland, sorry it isn’t me that has a pet theory. April 14th happens to be the single highest point of the smoothed curve of deaths so I pointed that out.

  But obviously it would be absurd to say that accuracy is to just one day. Add in the fact that interval between infection and death is an average of another curve, and the confidence limit for the point of most infections will be quite wide. My point though is that there is actually evidence that the advice issued earlier in March had a real effect, which I think is what you were saying, even if it may not have been enough to turn the rise into slow decline.
• 72 Vanguardfan August 24, 2020, 5:24 pm

  I’m not convinced the local lockdowns are targeting enough interactions of the right kind. And I take the point about compliance. I think you only get really good compliance when a lockdown is more absolute, so it’s easy to see if people are in or out.
  But I think local outbreaks can’t really be adequately controlled with no support for quarantine. We go back to the point about distancing being a luxury. Same for 14 days quarantine. Many people can’t do this without risking their income or even their livelihood. Back to the government again, I’m afraid.
• 73 Al Cam August 24, 2020, 5:54 pm

  @Vanguardfan:
  Respectively disagree: more than enough money has been wasted on the incorrect assumption that enough people will comply if you pay them. Some folks will just not do it even when people are apparently dying in droves around them – which rationally should be a bigger incentive. How do you think the rate got to be so high in Leicester in the first place during the national lockdown?
  However, this behaviour really should not be a surprise to anybody.
• 74 Algernond August 25, 2020, 12:27 am

  The longer this goes on, the clearer & clearer it seems that this is more of a Plandemic, Panicdemic, or more likely a combination of the two I suppose. Whatever it is, the ongoing wanton socio-economic destruction is something I can’t imagine ever being able to forgive. The care home fiasco was incompetence, and some may argue also unforgivable, but what’s going on now is a level of capriciousness I’ve never witnessed put upon the British people by its government in my lifetime (I’m late middle aged).

  Any dictatorial rules currently implemented by the UK government (and some other western governments around the world) appear purely to be for political gain (esp. US State level), virtue-signalling or to keep up appearances because they can’t admit the catastrophic consequences of lockdown.

  With various companies allowing their employees not to come back until mid-2021, unions and government still putting up barricades to proper teaching, and many other professions still not being allowed to resume either properly or at all, the needless national self-harm is continuing.
  A lot of people are just taking the mickey. Others just haven’t thought about it properly, or even at all (#sheeple).

  It of course makes zero sense when comparing to risks of other causes of death. More people have died with Flu & Pnuemonia since early June! Why is there a zero covid death policy if not zero flu death policy, zero car death policy, zero whatever death policy?

  This isn’t happening in non-western countries, and is perhaps a reflection on the not uncommon observation that Western Society is tired and on the wane.
  (I work with subcontractors in various East Asian countries; they give us very strange looks in zoom meetings when we tell them people can choose not to go back to the office).
  Society is sick, and covid is not the malady.

  Maybe Western Society doesn’t deserve to be saved. It’s a shame for the minority of us that think it’s worth saving though.
• 75 The Investor August 25, 2020, 7:54 am

  But go ahead, keep making stuff up.

  Unfortunately I’ve been away from the thread for a half a day and continue to have limited time.

  However I’ve asked court civility and you’re just sticking digd at the end of otherwise useful posts.

  Despite their utility, further posts will be deleted if this continues. It’s not so much the degree as the start of an escalation of name calling That we don’t want or need here. Cheers.
• 76 FI Warrior August 25, 2020, 8:49 am

  @ Algernond, it’s a good chance for the rest of the world to level things up, catch or take us out, those who see no fine robes on our emperor, just corporate capture of our govts enabling looting on a scale people can’t comprehend. Those in the know are getting even richer, while the middle classes are being quietly eviscerated. When this unexpected summer holiday is over and winter starts to bite, they’ll know how it felt for those who woke up on the scrap heap when manufacturing was gutted a generation ago. Ironically the nation will be more united again, but in poverty, with social unrest, like the 1970’s.
• 77 The Investor August 25, 2020, 9:10 am

  @Algernond @FIWarrior — Again, we are getting well off-track here. There are more suitable places on the Internet for general missives against capitalism etc. Cheers.
• 78 Algernond August 25, 2020, 9:31 am

  Just to clarify, I’m not against capitalism 🙂
  Quite the reverse; I’m not sure why the above post came across like that.
• 79 Naeclue August 25, 2020, 10:13 am

  I am normally an optimistic person, but realistically it looks as though the Covid situation in the UK and worldwide is worsening. Increasing infections and despite improvements in treatments we are probably going to see the death rate climbing again. Despite the evidence of a worsening situation, citizens here and worldwide are increasingly calling for the lifting of restrictions, which is likely to happen IMHO as Covid fatigue has set in.

  Be prepared for a very rough winter, stay fit and don’t get ill.

  Also prepare for Brexit chaos (keep stocked up on medicines, fuel, food, toilet paper, etc.). You never know, the government may actually manage the transition well, but their track record would suggest it is worthwhile being prepared.
• 80 Algernond August 25, 2020, 12:09 pm

  @Seeking Fire
  $TIPS hedged or unhedged?
• 81 The Investor August 25, 2020, 1:55 pm

  @Algernond — I was more replying to @FIWarrior’s comment, and in fairness he would definitely be more against what he’d see as crony capitalism then capitalism itself. The point is both your comments were reflective of big themes about a weariness/frustration with the general state of the economic system, together with bits and bobs of emotive language, slang etc.

  We all do it now and then, including me, but the comments on Monevator are better because there’s not much of it, but rather specific discussion about particular issues. Cheers! 🙂
• 82 Matthew August 25, 2020, 3:08 pm

  I think deliberate conspiracy in general is unlikely for most large scale things – there’s no way you could keep so many experts quiet – however they may all be prone to the same prejudices&assumptions due to all having a similar background, and their advice might be a bit too much “one size fits all” and not nuanced for different sections of society

  Expert advice also tends to only consider that voters have motivations that are politically acceptable and good for the whole – not cutthroat – ie where one might personally benefit financially from a brutal brexit/covid policy
• 83 The Investor August 25, 2020, 3:24 pm

  @all — Closing comments here. Have a great week!