What caught my eye this week.
There have been several times over the past couple of years when I’ve had to admit to myself I miss the pandemic.
Not, it goes without saying, the horrible deaths.
Nor the vaguely wartime spirit and the disaster movie nightly briefings.
Not even the pretty good go of it that Monevator readers and myself made of talking – and constructively disagreeing with – each other through the early uncertainty, science, and economics of those first few weeks (before the debate metastasised into just another of the bifurcations that everything resolves to now). Though I do have fond memories of those conversations.
No – I mean the feeling of being completely off the hook.
Of not berating myself for declining to YOLO through some particular evening but preferring to stay in with a book.
Or of not feeling that I had to see a certain few people who to be honest I now haven’t seen since Covid. (They probably felt the same way.)
The quiet peace for large stretches of time of simply being alone.
You’ve got to fight for your right
Perhaps it’s unsurprising I found myself taking the other side of an essay this week in The New Humanist urging us all to finally shake off the pandemic and to get out more.
In The Introverts Are Winning, author Marie Le Conte laments how:
In the years after restrictions were lifted, many naturally outgoing people – this writer included – have found it that bit harder to get their friends out of the house.
Plans somehow require more effort than ever to get made, and are always at risk of getting cancelled at the last minute. A spontaneous pub trip, once a cornerstone of British social life, now takes work to organise.
All true of me. Indeed if you defined me by my social life, I went into the pandemic a slightly grumpy 35-year old and came out a young-ish 50-something.
And these days, when it comes to going ‘out out’, as my girlfriend would say (over WhatsApp, of course, where much of our relationship happens) I very often cba.
Le Conte quotes French philosopher Pascal Bruckner – author of The Triumph of the Slippers – who believes:
“A new anthropological type is emerging: the shrivelled, hyperconnected being who no longer needs others or the outside world. All of today’s technologies encourage incarceration under the guise of openness.”
Which… seems a tad harsh?
Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded
But I don’t know. Maybe Bruckner’s right.
Because when the author of The Introverts of Winning in The New Humanist makes her case for visiting the outside world, it sounds to me like little more than a charity drive for my local newsagent.
Le Conte does not paint a compelling picture of that realm of strangers, awkwardness, intolerance, and rage.
Indeed compared to the joy of staying in – where everything is predictable, and most of human culture is at the end of a finger tap or the click of a remote control – choosing to have a spontaneous meeting with some other zombies who’ve stumbled blinking into messy and literally unfiltered reality sounds about as appealing as letting a drunk carol-singing rugby team in one by one to use your downstair’s loo.
Mushroom for a funghi
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a social recluse. Not even a wallflower.
For years The Accumulator thought I was an outright hedonist, until he knew me better.
I enjoy social stuff on my terms and my schedule. It’s all the unwanted stuff that does me in.
But I do find it easy to be alone.
I once did a work-related psychometric test, and the chap who conducted it (who for various reasons I knew independently of this test) raised an eyebrow when he gave me the result and told me he almost never saw people like me in testing – because they never made it to an office job.
I watch news stories about intrepid explorers living alone for two months with a shrug. So easy!
Coop me up in the International Space Station with a couple of others though and I’d be out the waste disposal chute long before my time was up.
I’m a high-functioning ultra-introvert in what was– until the pandemic – always an extrovert’s world.
Let’s all not meet up in the year 2000
Add it all up and even I know that I would hate to go back to prescribed global lockdowns.
My bout of Covid I mentioned before that started a few weeks ago has given way to what my GP calls a resilient ‘rebound infection’ and I’m now on antibiotics – plus rest and more rest.
As a result, I’ve spent most of the actual sunny bit of this summer canceling engagements.
It’d be nice to see my friends. It’s all a bit more 2020 than I’d prefer.
But, on the other hand, to go back to 2019?
Or even to the early 2010s – the last time that I commuted daily back and forth on a crowded tube to an office in the rush hour – with all that entailed?
Or to feel like I had to stay out in some pub, front room, club or garden party for an extra hour and then another hour because someday I’d be 30/40/50-years old and I’d regret leaving?
Well someday has come and I don’t regret the times I did leave.
I have other regrets! But overdoing it just to keep up with the extroverts is not one of them.
Not going out to work, either
Incidentally and on an investing note, this is all what’s kept me from piling into commercial property.
A favourite old real estate stock I follow is yielding 9%, has all its offices in ring-fenced special purpose vehicles so shouldn’t collapse in a realistic worst-case scenario – and as I wrote a few weeks ago I believe interest rates are coming down anyway.
But maybe the return-to-work bounce has peaked too?
That’s not something we had to consider before when judging the commercial real estate cycle. What went down may no longer come back up.
The world is different. Bruckner is right.
He’s got the whole world in his hands
Maybe you’re an outgoing party-mainlining extrovert and if so good for you.
If these difficult years we’re living through have excelled at anything, it’s making more room for self-identification. Let the party crowd party harder I say.
Even I will see you at some future party. But I’m not sure which – and I won’t be at the one after that.
Not now – not after the pandemic. It broke that compulsion. Now there’s simply too much good stuff to stream on Netflix and Spotify instead. And all those specialist aquarium videos to watch on YouTube that didn’t exist five years ago, let alone when I was a fish nerd of a kid.
If enjoying so much good stuff makes me a ‘shrivelled, hyperconnected being’ then all I can say is shrivel me more.
At home alone
I know some of my carelessness about hitting my social step count nowadays must be an age thing too – my 35-to-55 transformation notwithstanding.
But still I wonder – worry even – whether future generations of introverts will enjoy the same get out of jail card on their tendencies that I now do, whatever Bruckner thinks.
Because awareness of that card was what the isolation of the pandemic gave us. A rare gift.
Future introverts may well have everything they need in their living room – or on a quiet walk in gloriously deserted countryside. (With everything else they need summonable on their phones, of course).
But I suspect they’ll be made to feel guilty about it.
What about you? Do you miss the greatest excuse for not going to a wedding since WW2? Or have you been revenge socialising since the moment the last curfew ended?
Let us know in the comments below. Especially if you can tease out an investing-related angle.
And have a great weekend whoever you’re with – or without.
From Monevator
Monzo pension: is it any good? – Monevator
From the archive-ator: I, Robot – Monevator
News
Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view click through to read the article. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing to sites you visit a lot.
Bank of England cuts rates to 5% – BBC [Are you ready for lower rates?]
US recession fears fuel swings in interest-rate expectations – Morningstar
Winter fuel payments scrapped for pensioners unless on benefits – Which
UK house prices on track for 2% rise in 2024 – Zoopla
Controversial stablecoin Tether says it made $5.2bn in the first half of 2024 – The Block
The business cycles of India and China are decoupling – Apollo
Products and services
New lender offers mortgages of six-times income – This Is Money
TSB has launched a £190 current account switch offer – Which
How to spot car boot sale bargains – This Is Money
Open an account with low-cost platform InvestEngine via our link and get up to £50 when you invest at least £100 (T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – InvestEngine
Virgin 10% regular saver review – Be Clever With Your Cash
What’s behind the 10-times jump in some home insurance premiums? – Which
How to pick a financial advisor – Guardian
A personal cybersecurity concierge is a new perk, and need, among the wealthy – CNBC
Writer retreats for sale, in pictures – Guardian
Comment and opinion
Ways in which Rachel Reeves could raise £22bn of tax – Tax Policy Associates
Waiting for ‘the dip’ to invest – Oblivious Investor
Has the FCA’s Consumer Duty helped consumers? – Which
Bond ETFs are eating the bond market – Financial Times
Insurance boss issues warning over using pensions to drive UK growth – Guardian
Calculating what grandparents’ childcare is really worth – This Is Money
How to invest in a classic car (without crashing your finances) [Search result] – FT
The 11th Commandment: keep politics out of investing decisions – A.W.O.C.S.
Risk – We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards
Fantasy Island – Humble Dollar
US alternatives-in-ETFs that will someday come here mini-special
Managed futures ETFs gaining traction on diversification benefits – Morningstar
BlackRock leads firms racing to put private assets into ETFs – Bloomberg via Yahoo
‘Dr Doom’ Nouriel Roubini looking to launch his first ETF […] – Bloomberg via W.M.
Naughty corner: Active antics
Likening fund flows to ‘Ponzi maths’ – CAIA Association
To infinity and beyond bonds – Man Institute
The negative impact of crowding on active performance – Alpha Architect
The flipside of financial innovation: why contracts fail [Research] – SSRN
Kindle book bargains
The Happy Index by James Timpson – £0.99 on Kindle
Freakonomics by Steven D. Levitt – £1.99 on Kindle
Smarter Investing by Tim Hale – £9.29 on Kindle [£9.29! But rarely reduced]
Rebel Ideas: The Power of Diverse Thinking by Matthew Syed – £0.99 on Kindle
Environmental factors
Marketing a tote bag as reusable is silly. Say no to more stuff – Guardian
Homeowners can get up to £2,000 off a heat pump with a Halifax mortgage – T.I.M.
The very hungry urchins – Hakai
Pre-Covid austerity in the UK hurt climate goals and energy security – K.O.I.
Robot overlord roundup
As Snippet says, this chart explains why AI start-ups are getting all the VC money – Bessemer
What is AI? The definitive guide – MIT Technology Review
The AI-enabled restaurants of the future – Semafor
Just four companies are hoarding tens of billions of nVidia GPU chips – Sherwood
Silicon Valley’s trillion-dollar leap of faith – The Atlantic via MSN
How does OpenAI survive? – Ed Zitron
Off our beat
The United States of Cults – The Lefsetz Letter
The finality of everything – More To That
One man’s IVF journey – Guardian
So, you say you want a revolution? [Podcast] – Hardcore History via Apple
Sympathy for the CD – Guardian
Inside the race to make the fastest running shoe [Info-story] – FT
Warren Buffett’s breakup with the Gates Foundation will hurt the world – Vox
Click me you idiot – Sherwood
Russia’s surprising consumer spending boom [Search result] – FT
‘Humongous’ fort found in Wales rocks theory of Celtic-Roman peace – Guardian
Think like an Olympian – Vox
And finally…
“No one ever told me that grief felt so like fear.”
– C.S. Lewis, A Grief Observed
Like these links? Subscribe to get them every Friday. Note this article includes affiliate links, such as from Amazon and Interactive Investor.
“A previously unknown Roman fort discovered in Pembrokeshire in Wales overturns assumptions that the area’s indigenous Celtic tribe was on peaceful terms with the Roman invaders.”
Priceless. How about ‘a humoungous Roman fort explains why the area’s indigenous Celtic tribe was on peaceful terms with the Roman invaders’?
It would be pedantic to point out that no known ancient writer referred to the inhabitants of the British Isles as “Celtic”.
I was surprised to learn that Britain had been in the top 10.
“Britain ceases to be top 10 manufacturer for the first time on record”, The Telegraph, 29 July 2024
https://archive.is/HDWba
p.s. it’s the enforced extroversion that I find so tiring, given the right circumstances and people I’m more than happy to socialise.
“p.s. it’s the enforced extroversion that I find so tiring, given the right circumstances and people I’m more than happy to socialise.”
This really struck a chord. Anything forced (client side events, certain family events, teambuilding etc) and it’s a drag and a lot of “that’s 2 hours of my life I am never getting back” type comments.
I loved lockdown 1.0 the world just stopped, the weather was beautiful, I grew a beard, made dens with my kids and pottered around doing diy at a newly learned pace. It may have been different if stuck in a city flat but my children instantly settled into a carefree semi-feral way of living which we all look back on with fondness. This detachment from the outside world also helped me to be phlegmatic when checking my plummeting portfolio.
“Do you miss the greatest excuse for not going to a wedding since WW2?” Actual (as my kids would say) LOL (as my kids would not say).
I concur with similar feeling. Covid bring lots of positive such as work from home. Before that didn’t know that’s even a possibility. I even don’t love so much going for holiday now as it seems so crowded and not comfortable.
Staying in suits me just fine and yes I miss not having to explain that I don’t want to go out and being able to WFH as much as I like and only going into the office when it makes sense.
‘Enforced extroversion’ has always been my worst nightmare
It occurs to me that people who still read long syllable-heavy blog posts in 2024 rather than watching a 17-year old rap about Vanguard for five seconds on TikTok probably do lean introverted. But perhaps I’m being sniffy… 😉
Come on extraverted Monevator readers! Please do chime in and give us the other side 🙂 We don’t want to have an introverted love-in here.
Actually, what do you call a gathering of introverts?
A contradiction.
(Just made that up but, equally sure that I am not the first to. Don’t want to Google it and spoil the joy…)
An excellent, thought provoking write up this week, Investor. Resonates incredibly well with me.
I used to commute 5 days a week into London from the coast. Physically not commuting or WfH were huge exceptions. Then came lockdown. It was the happiest time of my working life (but the saddest for so many, as you rightly point out). I was in my ‘cave’ surrounded by loved ones. My two worlds morphed into one. Whilst the treadmill stopped, in the end the world didn’t. Lockdown showed a different lifestyle option to the conventional norm can and does work. It was a massive reset for me.
I work in sales / consultancy / project management. I put my twin brother’s hat on when I leave the house and I become Mr Corporate until I walk back in the door in the evening (I neither have a twin nor a brother). As soon as I’m inside, the ‘cape of fake’ is immediately removed and it’s back to shorts / T-shirt in the summer or thermals in the winter.
I’m not the biggest fan of people. When out, my wife and I pick the quiet corner for a meal. Or the back streets in the local town or city to avoid too many people. I’m hugely contended in my own company. I crave a quiet weekend to enable a full reset for the next week. Loud pub or quiet walks? No contest. Party or peace? Again, no contest.
> a quiet walk in gloriously deserted countryside. (With everything else they need summonable on their phones, of course)
Leave the phone at home. It has no place in the countryside, and if it’s decent countryside there’s not enough signal to connect you with the hive-mind anyway 😉
Tether is an absolutely incredible story. The company is blatantly a scam, refusing to be properly audited for many years because no auditor “understands” their business. They print billions of “tethers” on a regular basis in order to manipulate Buttcoin. I don’t know how long they can keep the grift going for, but surely they can’t keep this going indefinitely. Buttcoin of course is a “ponzi”/greater fool scam in itself, and it would be wonderful to see its demise alongside Tether.
I don’t miss any of the mass gatherings, or 10+ people birthday dinners where everyone’s talking over everyone just to build up a hangover for the next day and being £100 short by the time they get home. However as an introvert myself, I do notice that my very cherished introvert friends (the rare breed with whom you can spend 4-hour-long deep and interesting conversations about everything and not getting burnt out by it) have locked themselves more into their solitary bubbles, too. It’s hard to get anyone out of the house these days, and occasional whatsapp conversations don’t make up for a walk in the park and a cuppa.
Meanwhile the extrovert world seems to go downhill even faster – I have recently found myself longing to preserve at least a tiny bit of etiquette and basic manners, amidst people in professional settings not being able to respond to enquiries, teenagers rushing to snap up the last free seat on the tube with a big fat victorious grin on their face, or general lack of customer service in random settings. Or maybe that’s just me experiencing my post-pandemic transitioning from 35-to-60-year-old “back in my youth”-lady? Time to retreat into my gardening era, I guess.
Covid did me the favour of killing off my commute (which was about ~90m each way).
4 years now, and I’ve only been back to an office a handful of times – 3 times for IT, once for show and twice to a vendor’s place for a day out.
I haven’t stayed in though. I’m much more connected in my local community (through the kids) and it’s much better.
So, losing the commute was good and being a better father and local has obvious advantages.
Long may it continue – WFH that is.
I would love to deal out some extroverted comments here but alas I can only join the introverted love-in. Nothing better than setting out for a countryside walk with the dog and seeing nobody .
Forced socialising is sooooo 2019.
Last night we went out for the first time in a while.
Babysitter was £90 plus her Uber back. Food was £150 in Borough Market. Drinks after £110.
Aside from these prices roughly doubling in since the pandemic, previously doing that pre-kids a few times a week, quickly becomes a noticeable dent. No idea how youngsters could afford it. Yet loads were out. But then again, why live in London otherwise?
Thank you @TI for a such a joyous post and hope you’re feeling properly better soon. Whilst 100% concur, the extrovert angle is that Mrs 2MY, gregarious party girl who loves a five-second Vanguard TikTok rap, also identifies as a lockdown (not covid) lover. I worry that my somewhat spectral tendencies may have rubbed off, but she assures me that she’s just adaptable! Investment angle is that this is the period in which I happened across Monevator and been converted from interested tracker to active DIY management. I consider the absence of expensive IFA to be my side hustle, for which I am in your debt, thanks a million (well a little less actually, but hopefully growing)!
@Marco #10: couldn’t agree more. But the shocking truth is that crypto has won. I think that we will all be worse off for it (socially, morally, economically). Crypto sceptics like me can either try and will the flood waters back, or just give up futile resistance and try and swim with the tide.
@TI: qualified introvert here. Only child syndrome – I like socialising but never seek it out. Could happily go back to a softer version of lockdown, so long it was not accompanied by a pandemic. And, channelling @ermine, the open country is a wonderful escape from the human fish bowl of the towns and cities.
Very grateful for the, as ever, excellent links which I’m working through.
Thank you especially for including the Michael Green piece on Ark (per your reply in an earlier thread).
I’m not actually yet fully persuaded by Gabaix and Koijen’s “Inelastic Market Hypothesis” (“IMH”), and I’m rather less still buying into Mr Green’s interpretation and application of that in his own writing (as it relates to cap weight index trackers for the major indices).
However, I absolutely do think that the IMH generally, and Mr Green’s arguments specifically, do need to be taken very seriously.
If they (or either of them) are wrong, then their detractors need to try and rebut each and every point which they make directly, and not just (as they have done somewhat disappointingly to date) fall back on saying that Mr Green has not understood index trackers (he clearly does) or that it’s self serving scaremongering (it isn’t – in fact Mr Green thinks that there is no real alternative left to index trackers).
Not sure I am an introvert or just a lazy extrovert. I agree, the pandemic was like a big reset. I live on a quite road in a quiet area and it is noticeable how the traffic in the evenings and weekends isn’t what it was, and the background ‘hum’ from Bedford isn’t there anymore. Surprised hospitality hasn’t taken a bigger hit.
Always hated weddings, well the prolonged receptions, worse as it cost money to go and you have to buy a gift. Funerals have the advantage there.
One final comment……£90 for a babysitter!
My dream retirement is to be and to live where Fulton Mackay did in Local Hero.
The rest of you can f.o. 😉
Another one for introversion camp (although I don’t want to go on one).
But I think I’m slightly more extreme than most. The pandemic was not that much difference for me – and didn’t really put me out at all. I’ve always been this way – extreme -but got worse as I’ve got older. From primary school felt I didn’t belong/fit in and didn’t really get on with most. Never liked any schools/college/Uni – hated it all – couldn’t wait to leave and do my own thing.
TBH, never liked extroverts – most extremely annoying, don’t like “in your face” type people/braggarts – I’m not really interested in what latest stuff others have got/are doing/their kids either but that’s the trouble with them they are unable to keep themselves to themselves so best to keep away to save myself.
I’ll be honest (as there’s not much point lying and I am pretty frank) – don’t like anything much in groups and when left school didn’t last long with office jobs – just couldn’t do with the people. I’ve never ever been a team player. So always worked self employed/alone mainly (did work with father in early days but he was same as me anyhow). Can’t do with holidays with other people (apart from partner) – too much conflict/annoyance and in fact limited where I will go now as don’t like crowded places or busy restaurants and bars – so much so that when I last went some 7 years ago and couldn’t find a quiet enough restaurant, so I went to the supermarket instead bought some cold stuff and ate in my room.
Don’t do anything involving loads people – events/gatherings/pubs/concerts/cinemas/theatres/clubs/BBQ’s etc. My partner has attended weddings on her own. May sound like life is “not for me” but I like it on my own terms only and “fun” to me is often loud, really for kids – and extremely overrated. Not for me. I don’t like enforced jollity either – like you MUST celebrate your birthday/christmas/valentines day – none of which I do. I like my own quiet enjoyment. I feel some other people don’t like this stuff either but go along with it as they feel forced due to pressure from others/what is the “norm”/traditional/expected. To hell with that. Can’t stand Christmas – too much of what I don’t like and what’s to celebrate in getting another year older – just another year nearer to death! Cards are a waste of money – they only end up in the bin – save the money. I’m frugal anyway as you would perceive. As someone else said prices of everything have gone through the roof since the pandemic – not just bills/food/fuel but most things as I understand it holiday prices have spiralled, car prices, building materials & getting work done (although I don’t get much done as don’t like others in house). This is just profiteering on a grand scale I think – inflation has not added all this to prices – it’s just companies taking advantage of the situation and feel like they can get away with it. It was found to be the case with supermarkets and lately petrol stations and holiday companies profiteer way above supply/demand during school holidays as it is extortionate – although as you would guess I don’t have kids and isn’t any time I would go. Try to go where there are no kids.
Like my own space away from people – even my partner to be fair. Can only spend so much time then need my time – I like isolation. I’m surprised I even have a partner but she pursued me and I did give in in the end. Been together 25 years but no intentions of marriage in the next 25 – if I live that long. It took me 11 years to live with her for God’s sake!
I don’t like neighbours either – they are all a noisy loud set near me, dogs barking, loud music playing outside. My own island would be nice. Paradise itself. If only.
What I miss from the pandemic is the walks in our local rural countryside with the soundscape free of the noise of machinery like traffic and aircraft etc. I could walk about 1/2 mile from home and just hear bird song and the scurrying of squirrels, badgers etc with the wind in the trees and crops. I’m not sure I will ever experience this again where I live, it must be what the countryside was like in a pre-industrial age. I lean to introvert and don’t like crowds but I have enjoyed going to live music events since the pandemic – a recent trip to Wembley to see Mr Springsteen being one of the best 3 1/4 hours of entertainment for the money spent … if you like that sort of thing. Mind you, the young chap sitting next to me spent most of the time scrolling Instagram on his phone..what’s up with that – I wonder what his pandemic was like…just endless days of scrolling perhaps?
@David #19: a beautiful and brilliant film.
Interesting if rather sad feedback from my son -a deputy head in a secondary school in Scotland
Results for the latest Higher exams show a 10-13% drop in pass rates for schools in “poorer” areas and a 3-4% drop for the more affluent catchment areas
Children who clinically were not really affected by Covid have paid a high price to protect the rest of us
Personally as an older person (78)) I think restrictions were perhaps valid for my cohort but after 3 months into the pandemic when the clinical picture was clearer keeping the same restrictions on the kids was very damaging
xxd09
@Delta Hedge, I also totally agree re: Tether, though I wouldn’t say crypto has in any useful sense ‘won’, apart from the fact that it seems likely Bitcoin will continue on existing (unless, hilariously, it was to be hacked or something like that).
Crypto to me now seems completely tarnished in most people’s minds, and most people lump Bitcoin into that too. Those that don’t tend to be disturbingly fanatic about it.
Mostly though, people don’t talk about it all. If you don’t follow crypto or anti-crypto or investing forums you might barely ever hear people mention it these days.
If one considers Bitcoin as an investment purely cynically as I know some do, well, it’s ‘interesting’ to me because it has useful properties similar to Gold in walking its own path to some extent. It’s volatility could be an asset in small doses. However, I personally don’t wish to help directly perpetuate something that’s generally harmful in many ways, and I also still believe there’s a tail risk that it could implode somehow. Tether being one possible source of issues there of course.
Unless that tail risk does materialise, it (Bitcoin, mainly) will probably just motor on in much the same way that even more ridiculous things like Dogecoin and GME do as well. Dogecoin has in fact at many points in the last couple of years been outperforming BTC. It’s the future! 😉
On the India v China Apollo chart in the links: GDP growth does not equal investor returns. Often, it’s remarkably decoupled.
From the table you might conclude that the PRC had been trounced economically by India over the past 20 years. But nothing could be further from the truth. China has outstripped India on all GDP metrics over the whole period, and comprehensively so. Researcher Geoff Roberts has compiled a list of China’s recent economic wins:
– Foreign goods trade is up 6.1% to $2.9 trillion year-on-year.
– The trade surplus is up 12% compared to 2023.
– China is the number one trade partner of ASEAN.
– China has had a record crop of 150 million tons of cereal grains.
– The Chinese courier sector handled 80 billion parcels, up 23% year-on-year.
– SMIC is the world’s number two pure-play microchip foundry, after Taiwan’s TSMC.
– China Telecom acquired 23% of QuantumCTek, patenter of Micius, the world’s first quantum communications satellite.
-Chinese commercial aerospace launched 39% of China’s 26 rockets.
– Chinese invention patents rose 43% to 524,000 annually.
– China is the first country with 4 million domestic invention patents in force.
– Baidu’s 1,000 robo-taxis in Wuhan will break even in Q4, and will be profitable next year.
– China has 47% of the world’s top AI talent.
– China added no less than 2000 AI courses to school and college curricula since 2019.
– Of world-class institutions doubling as research leaders, 7 out of 10 are Chinese, including the top one: the Chinese Academy of Sciences, ahead of Harvard.
The US was relying upon India to maintain a counter balance. But India’s Narendra Modi and China’s Xi Jinping have moved closer. India on July 25 endorsed opening to direct investment from China, frozen since the Himalayan border clashes of 2020. And Asia Times’ newsletter Global Risk-Reward Monitor reported on July 11 that ‘Modi asked Putin to help India resolve its longstanding border dispute with China’.
So, it’s not a case of China failed and India succeeded. Rather, Chinese’s success has not rewarded western investors and has not translated into conventional western success metrics for listed companies, like earnings per share as shown in the Apollo chart.
Paraphrasing Star Trek, it’s capitalism but not as we know it. Market Leninism and not Marxism Leninism.
@xxd09, the teacher’s union was all over it as I recall and all those otherwise paying for child care wouldn’t want to miss out. The legacy of covid seems more to be economic than medical. Heard of one case ( big company) where the clever dick employees tried to charge their employer floor rent for wfh. Didn’t get very far but entitlement seems to have ratcheted up just as productivity slipped even further down.
Looking back I think the biggest mistakes were ‘herd immunity’ -also a factor in child innoculations, and lax commercial decisions – too generous payouts and too easily abused.
However generally intentions were good ( excluding NHS procurement obv.) so I try not to be cynical.
If you loved the idea of being forced by your government to stay home and lose your personal freedom and choices that should never be taken away from you is pure stupidity. I was luck enough too have a job that didn’t require me to do such a thing is beyond lucky. Covid was real but the loss of jobs and lies that are coming out now about forced vaccinations is unbelievable! Never again!
@(don’t) join the club #20 – there ought to be a get together for us like minded souls that we can all not turn up to because of some (fictitious) prior engagement.
COVID was a lovely period for the kids and I. The better half, being more extrovert, found it harder. I never went into the office once for 18 months. Utterly brilliant. In the last year, I’m seeing a serious attempt across the hedge fund industry to get portfolio managers to go in 4 or even 5 days a week. The management argue it will improve collaboration, improve training for juniors etc. It’s all BS. Empirically, performance seems to be dropping as time spent in the office rises. It doesn’t generate collaboration. It generates groupthink. Correlation goes up, diversification down. As for training juniors: why would I want to do that? I’m paid on a %, training people subtacts from my bottom line. Frankly, I’m locked in for another 18 months or so, but I’m seeing others just retire since they don’t need the cash and the office is not where they want to be.
It’s the same for the kids. COVID was brilliant for them. Schooling from home was a total win. Not only was it more efficient given no wasted time with registration, breaks etc but academically much better. The lessons were done by the best teacher as lectures. No questions to slow the lessons down. Could be rewatched at leisure if you missed something. All done by 12 noon. Followed by loads of homework questions and finally a Q&A tutorial period if you didn’t understand something. They found it so much better than the normal school day. Allowed them to do everything at their own pace and then have the rest of the day off.
ZX Spectrum 48k-same for my grandchildren -upper middle and well funded homes/activities/tutors-like yours? but poorer families with less resources stuck in high rise flats -the ones that a functional school run by functional adults are a veritable life saver were very badly affected-unfortunately a very large part of the school population
xxd09
Further to my comment #17 and Michael Green’s piece on Ark in the Weekend Links; he’s appeared yesterday on Blockworks Macro (by VanEck) “Forward Guidance” channel on YouTube discussing the same issues (Inelastic Markets Hypothesis) over here:
https://youtu.be/N_-oRE4bDUc?feature=shared
Another qualified introvert here. I have some regular activities that put me in front of people (I teach – more a hobby, than a profession and I mountain bike with a group of friends). There are regular tensions with work colleagues. One in our team likes to dominate, is a bit of control freak and is an extrovert. They absolutely hate the fact that the team is now scattered to the four corners of the UK – and is regularly proposing in-person activities that see us traipsing around the country to meet in sessions that are agenda’d within an inch of our lives. Most of the rest of us would rather not.
Extroverts don’t need defending. Workwise I had a great lockdown, the City was empty so my ride to work was a pleasure. Only those who really wanted to be in came in, so it made for a fun and very productive environment.
It felt a little like rolling the date back by a couple of decades. People were telling jokes that would usually skirt with a call from HR, there was a lot of laughter and some very strong conversations about getting jabbed or not.
I used to look forward to going in on Monday just for a chat with the cleaners and security guards. I still make the effort to see the cleaner who left a shower unlocked for me ( they were officially closed because while washing your hands was COVID kryptonite, showering was apparently just asking for trouble) and ask after the family.
The weekends were rough but I really enjoyed going to work.
@David #28 – Brilliant, wish I’d thought of that one myself David.
If you could organise – but for the life of me please not a BBQ – can’t stand all the loud riff raff types at those, all chewing on carcinogenic poor quality overcooked (burnt to a cinder) smoky excuses for meat (burgers & sausages the norm).
Just lets make it such as the Introverts Annual (Un)fun day and don’t forget to choose some typically dull and monotonous activities since that should make us all happy – well not “happy,” it’s not a word we’d choose but we might just about be able to tolerate it if everything goes exactly to our liking – which nowadays for me, and at my age, doesn’t happen very much at all – I typically complain all the time and am grumpy even on the best day (Victor Meldrew is tame in comparison) – we’ll all have the same wretched tedious time – guaranteed. But then again we won’t be going anyhow, so problem solved!
I’ll have my enormous book of concocted excuses at the ready – just to cancel at a moments notice without any prior warning (as usual) as I wouldn’t want anybody to come up with a workaround given more time. Could use the parrot excuse this time – you know the parrot has not been too well, he’s disinterested in most things and stopped talking (caught it from me probably). He’s now a deceased parrot (there Monty Python was useful for something after all).
It’ll be good NOT to catch up. All the best, probably.
I hated lockdown, but see how it could have been wonderful for some (like an introvert couple being paid to not work for over a year). I’m an NHS doctor and my wife thinks I’ve repressed a lot of memories of lockdown, although I do remember resenting the claps and predicting how the government, media and public would turn against the NHS when Covid was over.
There seems to be a common thread running through the comments that is greater than just the subject of introversion — more a wider dissatisfaction with modern life and its incessant pressure to consume. I think the lockdowns gave people a sense that there are alternative and better ways of being, which mainly involved opting out of many parts of the system. A call, if you like, to be more like a philosopher (in the classic sense of the word) than a victim of the system.
“Philosophers didn’t play along. They didn’t leave themselves open to manipulation the way most Romans did. Worse, by the simple force of example, they reminded other people that there could be more to life than the mindless pursuit of biological cravings”
https://www.ecosophia.net/the-secret-of-the-sages/
#33 – totally empathise as I too work in the NHS. Claps from voters rang pretty hollow when voters continued to vote for a government who in real terms defunded the service and gave its workers real terms pay cuts.
We had a mixed bag with the lockdowns. I was a self employed business owner and had worked from home in some capacity for 10 years prior so it wasn’t an adjustment as such.
The first lockdown was great. Brilliant weather, a country ‘in it’ together and community spirit seemed to return.
The second lockdown was very different. Our daughter didn’t enjoy home learning (reception age) and missed her friends immensely. We like to do things ourselves as a family but we also enjoy the company of good friends. Both our children are outdoors types and partake in many sports clubs too.
I do think what @eddie said above is true and I actually see it as a missed opportunity. Lockdowns gave many a glimpse into what matters. Family and stripped back life. Bike riding, countryside walks, homecooked meals, localised living. I would say the lockdowns reaffirmed our FIRE plans and although we travel extensively we don’t fall into the consumerism trap as we realise that’s not what matters.
I’ve seen the opposite from most around me. Many seem to be working more than ever and as a result consuming more than ever. Brand new cars every 3 years, gadgets, expensive holidays yet extremely time poor. What seemed like the perfect reset has actually led many to revenge purchasing and consumerism. This has become the baseline for many in the area I live.
Lockdown gave us strength in our convictions. That health, fitness and family are ultimately more important than work. That you can actually opt out of many parts of the system as Eddie stated above.
As far as I can see large parts of the UK shifted direction to more consumerism but less going out and more cars, amazon shit and expensive holidays.
@gt 33
Is it reasonable for everyone to expect real pay increases over time?
I’m not convinced we can afford it, or if our productivity justifies it.
As others have said, the Uk (and much of the west) are living lifestyles we simple can’t afford and something will have to “give”
Looks like the introverts love in is in full swing!
I like the straightforward title of the New Humanist article – ‘The introverts are winnning’. In my view the subtext is that the introverts are winning for the first time ever, in a culture that lauds / rewards extroversion.
This reminds me of one of my favourite Peep Show quotes where Mark says ‘why do the people who want to talk about things always win? Why can’t the people who don’t want to talk about things win?’ Finally, the people who want to talk about things aren’t winning!
It’s an interesting topic and the article’s right in saying that the pandemic surfaced a set of differences that had previously been latent. But that’s because the introvert way of doing things was always assumed to be second best.
I don’t really buy the arguments in the article. We need to go out more to have a laugh with old ladies but also because waiting in queues ‘builds resilience’. Really? The extroverts are saying this because, as the author says, they are having to spend more effort corralling people into pubs.
Thanks for the link @eddie and your sterling work TI
@Boltt. This is the big disconnect between expectations and reality. If we look a public sector productivity between 1997 and 2019, outputs rose 2.3%/annum. Inputs (the cost of providing them) rose 2.2%. So what is termed input productivity was 0.2% (rounding up). Looks poor but at least it’s a positive?
The problem is the way the ONS measures input productivity doesn’t actually incorporate real terms spending. Real-terms spending went up 2.6%/annum (i.e. inputs costs rose 0.5%/annum). So what is termed funding productivity was at -0.3%/annum (outputs/funding).
Since the COVID shock, this has all got worse. Public sector input productivity (outputs/inputs), as of end 2023, was still 6.8% below the 2019 level. Funding has gone through the roof, so funding productivity is much worse, though, tbf it’s hard to extract the impact of COVID yet.
This lack of productivity is going to create huge issues. The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan, in order to meet rising demands upon the service, requires the workforce grow from around 1.5mm now to 2.4 million by 2037. The plan is predicated on labour productivity improvements of 1.5% to 2% per year. We’re struggling to generate 0%!
Without such improvements, a bigger increase in staff would be required, making the plan even more expensive to deliver. Plus you need to find all those staff. How do you sate that demand without higher and higher wages? Well immigration has been the only way. Yet, as we see, immigration is deeply unpopular. We are in a vicious feedback loop.
1. I suspect the overwhelmingly positive lockdown experiences reported here largely reflects the profile of the majority of Monevator readers. For me and Mrs T (p/t and self employed, large house and garden in the country) it was similarly positive. For my daughter and partner (cramped rental on large estate, both wfh in one room and trying to homeschool 2 teenagers), considerably less so.
Interestingly, quite a lot of newbuild homes are moving away from open plan or incorporating home offices.
2. I am profoundly concerned by the huge growth in anxiety, mental health issues and increased absence from education among that cohort of young people who bore the brunt of lockdown.
I remember at Grammar school we spent half the time walking from one room to another, usually at the other side of the school. This was back in the 70s. Very inefficient. When we got to whatever room we were in next, we sat and listen to some old bloke rambling on for forty minutes. No yearly syllabuses were provided. I think I could have learnt more in one day a week at a well organised set-up.
I didn’t hate school, just saw it as boring and spent the least amount of time I could there.
When I went to work it was similar in many ways. Substitute (work) meetings for (school) walking between rooms and you have similar waste of time. Also I could usually do my weekly work (programming) in about four hours, most weeks.
Every month we had a meeting to discuss the latest “Five Year Plan”. This never seemed ironic to the moron who called the meeting, though perhaps we were the morons as he went on to be a CEO somewhere else. Obviously a visionary.
The business world is made for extroverts. Open-plan offices. Endless meetings. Team “events”. The constant dog-and-pony show expected of leaders. WFH has been a partial reprieve, but the blathering has just moved to video calls, and bosses everywhere (always extroverts) are pushing for office presence again. It can help to negotiate WFH days as part of a new job offer, and make sure to get that in writing in the offer letter or contract.
Of course introverts are rarely found in office jobs. We know that when companies go on about “diversity”, they don’t mean our kind. It is a critical skill to convincingly pretend being extrovert.
There does seem to be rather a serious disconnect between our “better off” -Monevator readers?-and the rest of the population which has been increasing for some time
Our “leaders “ appear to be choosing to ignore this dangerous state of affairs in spite of many red flags
Our disadvantaged young men especially who as a sex have been disproportionately vilified by all and sundry will probably start to cause havoc -males as opposed to females choose to externalise their frustrations
Hopefully some common sense will prevail
A Labour Austerity programme (is there any alternative?) will sadly just inflame the current malaise
Tough times ahead-again?
xxd09
I enjoyed both the New Humanist article and the Guardian article on CDs. The New Humanist reminded me of a recent trip to see my brother in London in which he said that I was a ‘weirdo’ for talking to strangers in pubs there!! Don’t let the country-bumpkin out for his own safety.
Then the Guardian article reminded me how we’ve all been suckered into this endless subscription consumer hell-hole. I too gave away my CD collection. My reward for my stupidity is having to pay money to our Silicon Valley overlords for ever more, or far more likely, starting to slowly reverse the process by collecting the physical media again once I no longer have to subsidise endless Netflix, Spotify and Amazon subs for the teenagers.
Comments #35 and #36 resonated for different reasons.
#35, the unfairness meted upon health professionals is/was profound.
#Eddie #36 +1 for the Archdruid on Ecosophia. In that vein xxd09 #45
> There does seem to be rather a serious disconnect between our “better off” -Monevator readers?-and the rest of the population which has been increasing for some time
This is what secular decline looks like. There’s less to go round. Fifty years ago my dad working a skilled blue collar job could support a wife and child and buy a house on a mortgage in an admittedly crappy part of London on a single wage. I’d have to liquidate a significant part of my networth to buy a house like his, after working a white-collar job for thirty years. Monevator readers spend time thinking about financial independence, people like my dad now probably spend their time thinking about how to make next month’s rent.
I know it’s not popular to assert that the West in is decline but the signs are all around us. Denialists will point to the fact your phone does a lot more and AI! and there have been undoubted improvements in some aspects of healthcare, but the essentials of life are becoming less affordable even if the nice-to-haves are getting cheaper and more functional. Which would you rather have, and Apple iPhone and sleeping on the street or a landline rotary phone and being able to afford a roof over your head?
Myers-Briggs tests have me down as an ‘ambivert’ although I think as I’ve gotten older (and more so post lockdown), I’ve crept closer to introvertism. When I was younger, I think I came across as extrovert mostly because I suffered from FOMO. But I’ve always been happy with my own company, I’ve never been bored (or afraid) being on my own.
Some weekends where I’m not seeing family or friends and I don’t bump into any of the neighbours, the only ‘person’ I talk to is Alexa and I’m fine with that!
Pre-pandemic, I had never worked from home before and I struggled with concentration and motivation in the first couple of months of lockdown. Now, I am far more productive working 4-days a week at home (in complete silence) and my days in the office are just for social purposes. If I don’t feel like being sociable, I am able to do 100% WFH (none of my team members, including my boss, live or work locally to me, in fact, most are not in the UK).
I still attend social events as I feel that I need to maintain relationships and friendships – far prefer quieter pubs or cafes, but my younger friends and colleagues still like places where you have to shout to be heard. These outings often leave me mentally fatigued.
I think I quite enjoyed lockdown, worked throughout so was kept busy during the day, re-connected with some friends over Zoom (and still in touch with them) and miss the quiet streets during the pandemic, when walks down the street were quiet and pleasant, instead of having to breathe in traffic fumes.
T.I : “get of jail card” should hopefully be “get out of jail card”.
Come on @TI and reclusive introverts! Don’t trade the adventure of life for a comfort blanket.
There’s always something to miss about yesterday. It’s ironic to me that the biggest changes eliciting the biggest uncertainty and fear become “fond” memories with time.
Isn’t being FI choosing the best of yesterday to do today and tomorrow?
Shouldn’t we, as introverts, be doing more crazy, uncertain, scary things so that we have better moments we can silently reflect, ponder and learn from?
Be the person who instigates the big family get together or does the client stuff but do it on your terms, your way.
It might be the best thing you ever do….
Another leaning towards introversion here. I suspect it isn’t just this website which trends that way, I’d imagine the whole FIRE way of thinking is strongly selective towards introverted thinking. As a group I’d suspect extroverts are much more concerned with the opinions of others which may lead to outwardly showy spending not conductive towards the inner scorecard I associate with introversion and FIRE.
Introvert or extrovert? I don’t consider myself a member of any group. I’m definitely more like Bilbo Baggins: I am very attached to my home conforts in the Shire and reluctant to go on an adventure. Once the adventure starts though, I often grow fond of it and enjoy it. Social activities are an acquired taste 😉
Just transferred £500k to sipp currently in cash – is it wrong to hope for a -30% crash so I can buy s&p500 (or similar) at an almost reasonable price?
Was looking at some more prefs after the RSA ones cashed out last week – they jumped about 6% in a single day, on 0.25% base rate change. Seemed a bit big for such a small change
This is a bit off topic this weekend but it’s still relevant for an investment site. I would just like to compare notes. For a long time I’ve been noticing that the Morning Star report for my most cautious portfolio states that I’ve got some decent alpha (from my modest point of view). This is a surprise to me as I don’t consider myself an active investor and I am definitely not trying to get any alpha. I get a higher return than a 60/40 whole world portfolio with an annualised volatility of about 5%.
I know some professional managers claim that they achieve alphas of around 15% even 27%. My cautious portfolio’s alpha has been just a bit under 4% for ages. Is that common for a DIY passive investor not seeking alpha? What’s everyone else’s experience?
@Boltt #54: 2017 paper (Staff Report 723) from the NY Fed (Tobias Adrian, Richard Crump and Erik Vogt), titled “Nonlinearity and Flight to Safety in the Risk-Return Trade-Off for Stocks and Bonds”. You can Google it for a PDF. TL:DR (the key chart is on p.4): when the VIX has been above 18 (and especially when it’s been over 30) then equity returns over 6 months have generally been good. A high VIX reading (esp. >30) tended to mean revert to a lower reading, and risk aversion/flight to safety was followed by increasing risk appetite, and with it rising share prices. Below a VIX reading of 18 but above one of 10, equity market performance was not as good as that of short duration Treasuries, and way below that of equities’ when the VIX rose above 30.
@Sparschwein I must say the fact that the blathering has moved to video is great, particularly for the team or all staff presentation blathering. You have to be on mute because of numbers attending, and it’s normally acceptable to have your camera off too, so you can get on with the actual job at the same time. Listen to a few minutes or look at the slides and make a half way decent comment or ask a question and you can get the brownie points too
Mind you my recent partial unretirement involves, by contract, 2 short days WFH, although I can go into the office if and when I want
@Boltt #54 again: if you brought the S&P500 every time that CNBC had a Markets in Turmoil special from 2010 to 2022 then your one year gain averaged 40% with a 100% win rate:
https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1522565809708711936?lang=en
@Boltt #54 again: Royal Bank of Canada Capital put out a note from their global equity strategy team yesterday after the CBOE Volatility Index peaked early in the session at 65.7, a post-pandemic high. They state: “It’s already surpassed levels we’ve seen in other periods of intense stress in recent decades…. It’s tough to say where it will peak at, but our back-testing suggests that the S&P 500 is a buy on a 12-month forward basis when the VIX is above 35.” Once above this RBC note that the S&P 500 has historically gained during subsequent three, six and twelve months a respective 6.5%, 14.5% and 28.5% on average, citing data going back to the start of 1998.
Thanks @DH
Looks like I need to do some reading around VIX – it’s not a term I’ve come across. s&P looks high/poor value to me but that’s only v the past and what I’d like to pay – so not really a logical foundation. But I’m still not buying yet..
@xxd09
Very insightful comment re. young men…
Thought this might resonate with many folks here. Investing isn’t just about money, it’s also about how wisely we invest our time.
“your life isn’t an index fund, and the purpose of life isn’t to optimize for some minimum viable income that pays you enough to cover your mortgage as you sleepwalk to your grave.”
https://www.youngmoney.co/p/the-cost-of-apathy
Sorry to hear you have struggled recovering from Covid. I have experienced long recoveries twice from Covid, but not found the health service helpful, only time (several months) has seemed to help. A personal question, so feel free not to answer, could I ask how the Dr. diagnosed a “rebound infection” ? E.g. a specific test etc and what the logic was for prescribing antibiotics / what antibiotics were prescribed? Have you found the antibiotics have helped? If I suffer from this again it would helpful to know – thank you. Hope you recover soon if not already.
@The Natural Yielder — No there was no specific test, it was based on the symptoms, timeline, and what he’s been seeing this year.
I don’t like taking antibiotics and was a bit against doing so but I am now down to just a couple of coughs a day (7-day course of ABs finished last week). Of course perhaps it’s viral and would have run its course or indeed perhaps it’s just general irritation/post-covid inflammation.
When I was in my early 20s I got a lung infection that was bad enough that I needed to breath this steroid gas in an inhaler for a few days / weeks (I forget how long) and obviously that was years before Covid, so who knows.
Currently eating lots of yogurt, kimchi, whatnot, to try to rebuild my gut flora after the antibiotics!
For what it’s worth the difference between this Covid and my last bout was I wasn’t able (/felt unable) unable to rest up for a good week this time (for reasons). I pushed a return to activity, and this seemed to aggravate the post-Covid ‘rebound’ infection too.
Next time I’ll be prioritising rest for sure! I’ll also buy a vaccine booster I think in a year or so.
Good luck if/when you have another bout.
@All: re the China Apollo piece in the links again (my #25): is the PBoC stimulus this week the long awaited catalyst to finally deliver some return to China contrarians? Or is the 15% move up and to the right in recent days just another false dawn? It’s been like the ‘widow maker’ trade of shorting JGBs from the 1990s to the 2010s for those brave enough to take the punt on Chinese equities. Is now finally the time to buy?????