Weekend reading: Donald Trump is not a Boglehead

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• 1 Mike Rawson August 22, 2015, 12:25 pm

  PostCapitalism is an interesting if misguided book.

  You can read my review here: http://the7circles.uk/the-end-of-capitalism-postcapitalism-by-paul-mason/
• 2 Tyro August 22, 2015, 12:59 pm

  TI: “My biggest problem with Trump’s equity portfolio though isn’t where he’s invested it, or how – it’s the puny size.”

  Add to that his puny earnings. I heard him on TV or radio recently boasting that he earns $400,000 a year. Only four hundred grand? Given all his lucre-attracting activities and assets of 8 billion ? If that’s not a spectacularly bad return on capital, I’m a banana …..
• 3 Neverland August 22, 2015, 1:12 pm

  Trump’s father was a self-made manhattan real estate tycoon

  Donald’s only real claim to fame is not losing the family fortune (although he’s come close) some pretty x-wives and a couple of low rent TV shows

  Ross Perot or even Romney were a bit more to look up to on the business front

  I can’t believe they are talking positively about Carly Floerntino as VP given what she inflicted on hp

  The Republican Party rivals Labour in its capacity for self harm

  I think it’s the presence of deep pocketed backers for both who reward idelogical purity and not electoral success
• 4 Gregory August 22, 2015, 1:15 pm

  @Allan Roth “As the holding period increases, the probability that stocks will outperform fixed-income assets increases dramatically. For 10-year horizons, stocks beat bonds about 80 percent of the time; for 20-year horizons, about 90 percent of the time; and over 30-year horizons, NEARLY 100 percent of the time.” “Because of the large drop in government bond yields over the past decade, the 11.03 percent annual return on long-term government bonds just surpassed the 10.98 percent on stocks for the 30-year period from January 1, 1982, through the end of 2011.” See Stocks for the long run 5th by Jeremy Siegel
• 5 paul August 22, 2015, 1:43 pm

  why are you terrified of trump? he is fantastic. after bush, clinton, bush, obama terms why would you be terrified of trump. he is a businessman and has generally sound principles as compared to the others. he cannot be any worse than the rest.
• 6 david August 22, 2015, 3:38 pm

  @Paul – A few years ago Trump said USA should invade Libya and steal all the oil fields, so who knows how many insane eternal occupations he’ll want to try, while maybe getting UK governments to go along with the stupidity, leaving Britain undefended so they can occupy more oil fields in foreign lands. Obama is a beacon of sanity compared to messianic Bushist/Blairite nutjobs.
• 7 Learner August 22, 2015, 5:24 pm

  What IS the closest US equivalent of an ISA? ie tax advantaged non-retirement savings.
• 8 Learner August 22, 2015, 6:16 pm

  To answer my own question – there isn’t one. There are various retirement savings vehicles but nothing that doesn’t penalise heavily for “early” withdrawal.
• 9 Luke August 23, 2015, 9:30 am

  Thanks very much for the weekend roundup. A wee typo re. recent stock market falls – should read ‘wringer’, not ‘ringer’. A laundry reference. Which reminds me, time to go and do some 🙁
• 10 The Investor August 23, 2015, 11:36 am

  @Luke — Oops! Thanks fixed now.

  @Learner — I think Roth IRAs are the closest thing, just on what I’ve picked up on the side over the years, but I believe withdrawals are age-related/linked. (Why all this guessing in a world of Google, eh? 😉 Feeling nostalgic I suppose.)

  @all — Re: Trump, I suppose I was asking for it with my throwaway quips about him but I’ve had some pretty extreme comments from Pro-Trump-ists that I’ve deleted. (Not from regular readers I presume, as all were US-based, but I could be wrong).

  Of course people are free to support who they like and I’m sure elements of his plans have some merits that are at least worthy of debate, but some of the immigration/gender-based rhetoric was pretty strong, and regardless of the merits of those arguments (or otherwise) I don’t think Monevator is really the appropriate forum for debating them.

  Hope that you see where I’m coming from at least, if I nuked your comment. Enjoy the rest of the weekend!
• 11 The Investor August 23, 2015, 3:46 pm

  @The reader who is still commenting about Trump and I’m still deleting — I’d happily debate such matters in a pub with you. I’ll entertain almost any viewpoint in a proper forum for its discussion. I don’t want to invite that sort of discussion onto this site though; from experience no good can come of Internet discussions about such matters, and as it’s off-topic to this site I’d rather just not get it started.
• 12 Dom August 23, 2015, 9:36 pm

  I always love reading your weekly post, it’s the perfect accompaniment to a coffee on a Saturday.

  I have to say though after recently having a child and watching my net worth take a bit of a battering, I’m not a big fan of reading any of these people bragging like the business insider link.

  Although I guess I should just refocus and say this can be me!

  I’m not so sure about the focus on property though, I’m not much of a DIYer.
• 13 theRhino August 23, 2015, 9:59 pm

  @Dom – I know where you’re coming from, It was reading of the frugality and contrarianism of travelling across europe in peak holiday season to spend time in a luxury villa that made me wince.

  Could be that I just inhabit a different demographic though and I am outside the intended target audience.
• 14 Neverland August 24, 2015, 9:57 am

  Its always a happy Monday morning when the FTSE drops 150 points 🙂
• 15 The rhino August 24, 2015, 10:24 am

  Time to dust of the hitchikers guide to the galaxy. Find my towel and DON’T PANIC
• 16 The Investor August 24, 2015, 10:28 am

  @Dom @TheRhino — Personally I found the story candid and inspiring, and included it partly because I was thinking about all the Financial Freedom naysayers in the comments on that Savings link the other day.

  Yes, this is a tough few days to be an investor — but of course there were times when he was hit too on his journey to $1m, too (he cites the US property downturn in fact).

  As you say Dom for me this is a time to say “somebody else has been here, too” and to keep your eyes on your plan. 🙂

  I don’t know where the holiday in the luxury villa comment comes from, I don’t recall that part, but he can spend his money how he likes as far as I’m concerned, and it doesn’t take away lessons for me personally on how he made it.

  I really despair of some of this “oh he talks of a life of frugality and then goes skiing” type commentary, which we saw a lot of the other day with the criticism of a certain US PF blogger.

  The whole point of having these plans for me is the frugality and the investing is a means to an end, not a religion to be adhered to until death.

  If he’s made $1 million and then chooses to spend some of that money (or more likely the income thrown off) doing something profligate, good luck to him.

  He’s given himself options; the point of options is you’re allowed to take some of them. 😉

  If your path is more of the Jacob ERE/SLIS/my co-blogger route of cut your cloth very fine to get to the finish line early and don’t spend money anymore than you have to afterwards then fair enough, it’d be inconsistent to suddenly talk about chartering a boat in Monaco.

  But living well below your means forever is not the plan for all of us on the FI journey. 🙂
• 17 The rhino August 24, 2015, 10:54 am

  @TI Was referring to the EA link
• 18 Mathmo August 24, 2015, 11:33 am

  Thanks for the links, TI. Quite a few will have the choir nodding sagely, but one or two new thoughts in there.

  I rather like the BI article. For me the message was that you get rich by playing with property not working. You also get poor that way. (That’s generally been true over the past 40 years and created a lot of wealthy individuals). But if you do get lucky and make it, then there’s real skill in hanging onto it by switching streams to a classic balanced investing approach. I suspect the frugality side of things was just the icing on the cake compared with moving net worth through big undiversified property bets. Probably essential to keeping it, however.

  However, the stand-out message this week is TMFs reminder that we are — to paraphrase The Sting – “not as tough as we look”. I’ve been steadily making mistakes all my life in all spheres of incompetence, and managing my finances is no exception. From the heady days of building my net worth in dot com share to fat finger trades in commodity routs, I’ve done them all. Oh look – I’ve just doubled my holding instead of selling it. I’ll just wait a few more days for the emerging markets price to recover. That Gold looks cheap compared with last year, I’ll have some of that. And then finding that my portfolio is out of shape because of all the bargain chasing, so I can’t take rational decisions when things move.

  So I’m increasingly clear in my own mind that I am part of the problem, and also that the only defence against me doing what I want, is me following my set of rules, and quite possibly a small sandpit to play in (to stop me playing in the big one). You can be told this so many times, but there’s nothing like screwing it up yourself for learning a lesson.

  Anyway, those equities look cheap, so I’ll tidy everything up once I’ve bought a few more this morning…
• 19 theRhino August 24, 2015, 12:52 pm

  i’m sure there was a monevator article on how to defensively hold onto wealth once you’ve lucked out and got it, it looked at the rothschild portfolio in all its spectacular diversity as an example. unfortunately can’t find the link

  (looking for it reminded me of just how many monevator articles exist – it is a massive back-catalogue!)

  i have the sinking feeling i am going to be a lot poorer when i do my accounts at the end of the month – but hey-ho thats life – its good training – make sure the investing muscles are hopefully strong and the mental tendons and sinews still capable of holding them in place..
• 20 The Investor August 24, 2015, 1:36 pm

  @theRhino — Hmm, I don’t think you should put your name down for “data scientist” when the next career fair comes around. 😉

  Typing “Rothchild” into the Search Bar top right of this page produced the article as the second entry:

  http://monevator.com/preservation-of-wealth/

  I think we all have to realize that different people are saving and investing for different reasons, and in different ways. Some people, apparently, are doing it to live below their means until they make it and then to continue to hoard or grow their wealth indefinitely.

  More power to you if that’s you, I’m not here to judge, at least not today. 🙂

  But if somebody else achieves financial freedom and then decides to use that freedom to take a holiday with some of their excess capital or income, then more power to them, too.

  (Also, I do see you conceded that you might not be the target demographic, and of course you’re entitled to your views about it all. Just making conversation, and I guess partly trying to counter the Hairshirt / Pessimism Police tendency that I’ve seen gathering in comments about financial independence on Monevator in recent weeks…)

  @all — Yep, rough week. We all have our different ways of moving through such periods. Mine would make my co-blogger race to the bathroom with an upset stomach. 🙂 His is to do nothing and rebalance annually. The general/historical statistics are on his side. My temperament is on mine for me personally. Again, we’re all different.

  @Mathmo — Yes, a pretty humbling few days. Usually is when the tide goes out a tad! Some of my positions and dithering is revealed as contradictory, when just a few days ago I was marveling at my own bold genius.

  I joke, of course, but only at myself. I love bear markets, because as @theRhino eludes above this is a chance to get tougher, including on yourself.
• 21 theRhino August 24, 2015, 1:59 pm

  nice one TI – didn’t see that search bar – that is the link i had in mind

  its grey and raining hard here on the coast – the pathetic fallacy is not lost on me as the FTSE drops into the 5000s. I love it!
• 22 SemiPassive August 24, 2015, 3:05 pm

  This sell off is getting pretty hairy now, the wealth preservation aspect of the Harry Browne permanent portfolio is getting more appealing every day.
  Too late to sell stocks now though and crystallise those losses, been there and done that. But it is a reminder that focussing only on yield (why I’m not currently holding gold) can increases risk of capital loss.
  On the plus side for those topping up, will see a whopping 5% yield on the FTSE100 soon?
• 23 Edmund Blackadder August 24, 2015, 5:11 pm

  I started investing in October 2013 and have stashed away around 11k in various trackers – and Royal Mail – so this is my first real experience of falling off a cliff and to be honest…I feel alright really. I understand that mkst of this is the result of panic or those trying to play the market – the irony of the CBI predicting improved growth the day the FTSE100 losed 4.67% is sublime (and yes, I know the two aren’t linked, but anyway).

  I’m looking forward to deploying my cash reserves and – finally – buying into the US.

  It’s the work of Monevator and similar blogs that has me so sanguine though. I imagine without this ground i’d be approaching self-harm about nowish.
• 24 Mathmo August 24, 2015, 6:15 pm

  @blackadder — this isn’t a cliff. 😉
• 25 Innovator August 24, 2015, 7:36 pm

  I’ve been extremely underinvested for a while, have been waiting for the buying opportunity, and am currently sitting on about £250k in cash, I have no other assets, rent my house, no meaningful pension, well aware from recently discovering this site this is a stupid position to be in. Sell off in last few days has now made stocks attractive, given I’m in my mid 20s and additional rate tax payer, once my ISA is full should I be buying in a pension or just a normal broking account? Whilst weary of this being the last year to get full tax relief on a sizeable lump sum, I’m not sure I trust the government to leave any investments untouched for the next 40 years, though 40 years of returns should mean a relatively small outlay now is big by the time I retire? However, should UK property ever correct (I’m confident it will do eventually) I’d like to keep some money aside for a deposit. Any suggestions as to what I should do, and are ETFs or funds better over the long term?
• 26 Mathmo August 25, 2015, 9:22 am

  @Innovator — what a wonderful position to find yourself in, and with an awareness that you ought to be doing something. The answer in part depends on your income and expenditure and how that is likely to remain stable or change over the next decade. In particular, if you can get your lifestyle into a nose-up position (ie spending less than you earn, you can really go to town on investing the capital you have). You should read every page of Monevator. If I were you, I would get lots of opinions. The following is my plan in your boots:-

  ASSET ALLOCATION
  First up you need to decide how to invest it, regardless of wrapper, and what rules you are going to follow. If you aren’t a very rulesy person, then pick investments that require less gardening. The monevator pages on asset allocation are brilliant. Bear in mind that picking the right one is less important than sticking with the one you pick. Given your desire for an available deposit, I’d be 60% global equities (VWRL, why try harder?), 10% bonds (SGLO or VGOV) and 30% cashalikes (Santander / Zopa).

  TAX WRAPPER
  I’d put 100k in a pension straight away as a top-up (you can use previous years allowances). The Govt are going to mess around with pensions, but there are too many people with pensions at around this level for them to annoy (see also: housing, TI). This will take some weeks to set-up usually, so good luck getting “corrected” prices. I’d also put myself on a programme of saving to get 100k+ inside ISAs over the next decade with 50k remaining in some cash or near-cash accounts (Santander for you and your wife/husband gets close: if you don’t have a wife then as a 25 year-old with 1/4 million in cash, you soon will have). In the meantime a naked brokerage account can hold the remaining equities. Perhaps pick a few accrual stocks so that you are dealing with capital gain only — ishares has a few.

  TIMING
  Once the cash is in there, I’d be looking to get it into the assets gradually. You might be excited by the recent correction but there’s a good chance that:-
  i) the market will recover before you get cash into these accounts
  ii) the market will get much worse after you buy
  You can’t know, so relax about it. Spend a minimum of 6 months to get invested. I’d actually be looking to spend a year on the task. Preferably automatically using our broker’s regular investment function to take you out of the equation.

  Good luck. Enjoy being a multi-millionaire retiree at 40.
• 27 Neverland August 25, 2015, 9:36 am

  @Innovator

  Are you self-employed or an employee?

  If is the former I would set up a limited company ASAP

  If its the latter I would try and figure out a way to incorporate myself

  Corp tax is going down to 18%, income tax is 45%

  Anything else is window dressing
• 28 PB August 25, 2015, 11:26 am

  To add to what @Neverland said, all dividends that my Ltd company earns from its ETF investments are free of corporation tax!
• 29 Mathmo August 25, 2015, 11:30 am

  Although note that dividend taxes are going up and NI avoidance is going to go away. If you have the money in the clear, then why incorporate?
• 30 Topman August 25, 2015, 11:47 am

  I remember reading in a semi-tabloid, many moons ago, some “sage” investment advice by one Adam Faith (whether or not the former pop star I know not) viz:-

  “Buy when others are selling, sell when others are buying, spread your risk and think long term.”

  I bought £44k of ISA shares this morning; on croise les doigts!
• 31 Topman August 25, 2015, 11:55 am

  @Mathmo – “….. get into the assets gradually.”

  I “hear what you say” but the balance of the received wisdom that I’ve picked up along the way is that it is better, in the long run and all things considered, to invest “lump sum” rather than “drip feed”.

  You think not?
• 32 Neverland August 25, 2015, 12:58 pm

  @Mathmo

  Incorporation allows you to just pay corporation tax and basic rate income tax and smooth your income, up to a limit

  If you have ample liquidity you just go from paying a lot of higher rate tax to taking your money out more slowly

  There is also some ability to use business losses against corporation tax in other years

  This works best when:

  i) its a family business
  ii) you are coming to the end of your working life
  iii) you have irregular income
• 33 magneto August 25, 2015, 5:11 pm

  @Topman
  “@Mathmo – “….. get into the assets gradually.”

  I “hear what you say” but the balance of the received wisdom that I’ve picked up along the way is that it is better, in the long run and all things considered, to invest “lump sum” rather than “drip feed”. ”

  Only with hindsight will the ‘received wisdom’ be proven correct or otherwise.
  Some consider ‘lump sum’ is a form of market timing! rather than average in over say 1 to 2 years.
  Others assume (perhaps correctly) that the market moves more often NE than SE so ‘time in the market … etc’.
  Personally think valuations will have a say in which works out the better.
  Is the financial press wasting time publishing valuations if we decide to ignore them?
• 34 Mathmo August 25, 2015, 5:57 pm

  @Topman — I’ve read a study which compares drip-feeding vs lump sums on a back-tested basis and IIRC the conclusion is that an immediate lump sum is better about 95% of the time as you get your exposure earlier to a working asset.

  The question is whether you can bear the 5%. In general, I am not a fan of sudden moves in a portfolio since it makes you so obviously exposed to the price when you choose to make the sudden move. I like buying on volatility, and if I were 25, I’d be prepared to take a year or so to get into my asset allocation. Not least as I’d probably have some views about what was expensive and cheap at the time. And — with hindsight, I realise I’d screw up about a dozen times getting in there.

  @Neverland — I don’t know this chap(ess)’s tax position, but incorporating free cash doesn’t seem like a good move to me unless it is to engage in a risk venture where the limited liability is useful. It just makes it harder to spend. He’s probably only looking at about 10k of income, most of which could be easily converted to capital gains. If he shuffles a chunk into a pension and some isas then there’s not much left unsheltered and that can be sheltered very rapidly. There’s not enough cash to warrant the cost and inconvenience of incorporation in my view.

  Incorporating serious flows of income is a different matter and I am a fan of that.
• 35 Innovator August 25, 2015, 7:09 pm

  @Mathmo – Thank you for the detailed response, for the next 3-5 years I think it is highly unlikely that I’ll need to spend more than I earn, at the moment I’m saving around 50% of my income, so can be relatively aggressive. No mortgage, no wife and no kids means that I wouldn’t be a forced seller under many circumstances, I would just want to have some cash should there be a big crash in both equities and property at the same time. Regarding the pension, if I put in £100k, can I claim the tax back immediately or do I have to wait for my tax return?

  @Neverland, am an employee so unless set up a company specifically for that I don’t think it would work, and from other posts sounds like I can shelter the majority of money.

  I invested around 10pc in equity tracker today in ISA and am going to drip feed money over next few months as suggested. My main query now is whether I should be exposing myself to property or buy to let in some way (it’s mainly London that feels totally overvalued to me) but the posts on this site definitely don’t endear me towards it!
• 36 SemiPassive August 25, 2015, 8:25 pm

  I’d hedge your bets and buy a house with at least half of it, presumably if you’re in the south east you’ll need a mortgage on the rest. No higher than 60% LTV, for which you’ll get a very low rate. If single maybe let a room out to someone for as long as you can stand.

  15k in a Cash ISA, 20k in Santander 3% account, and maybe some more spare cash set aside for crash. If there is any left then bung in a SIPP but only if you can offset against earnings and get 40% tax relief.
  Then in subsequent years max out ISAs and SIPP allowances.
• 37 Mathmo August 25, 2015, 9:32 pm

  @innovator — You’re welcome, but bear in mind my free opinion is worth what you paid for it: I’d certainly be getting many more opinions, and quite possibly some professional tax advice.
• 38 Tim G August 25, 2015, 11:33 pm

  On the question of lump sum vs. drip feeding, I’m not sure how helpful it is just to consider whether, in retrospect, lump sum investment generally wins out. Given that markets over time will rise (otherwise why invest in them) then lump sums must win out if we only look at returns. (Drip feeding = less time for assets to earn money.)
  I suspect that the 95% outperformance of lump sums quoted above is based on a comparison with pure drip feeding (£100k in one go vs. £100k spread over 20 years), but for most people with a chunk of money to invest the choice is not so much whether to invest it all in one go or to drip feed, but but rather between a single lump sum investment and a collection of smaller lump sum investments spread over a period of a few months or years.
  Maybe a better way to think about it is that the returns from a single lump sum investment will be more volatile than from multiple smaller investments – if you happen to invest at the floor, your investment will make more, and conversely if you happen to invest at the peak, you will be harder hit. In other words, lump sum investment should on average give you higher returns but at the expense of higher risk (a bigger range of outcomes: greater gains but also greater losses). So the first question is whether you are prepared to accept that risk (and whether you need to).
  But it’s also important to remember that volatility in equity markets is not fixed, so I would ask if there is any reason to think that the market is more volatile than usual at the moment. If there is, then it follows that the lump sump has a higher than average chance of producing both higher returns and higher losses. It seems pretty clear that the markets are indeed more volatile at the moment (I’m not calling whether they’re on the way up or down!) and that might be a reason for extra caution before investing a lump sum just now.
• 39 SittingBull August 26, 2015, 9:07 am

  All in! There will be a V-shaped correction and “surprise” rallye. The central banks will keep on printing. Anyone who believes that the FED will hike rates must be kidding.

  100% equities. Nothing else.