What caught my eye this week.
Well so much for the adults in the room. It turns out all the grown-ups in government are on the front benches. But Corbyn’s kiddos are still pulling the strings.
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves reminded me this week of college students back home to do a bit of babysitting.
At last it’s their turn to earn beer money watching Netflix! But they can’t be dealing with the actual kids so they lock them in a spare bedroom with a Nintendo Switch to amuse themselves.
Wait – is that smoke?
Spot the moment the resultant surely-terminal footage of a tearful Chancellor Rachel Reeves went viral:
Belaboured castle
Anyone who thinks this week’s bonfire of Labour’s modest welfare reforms must finally represent the low-water mark for British politics might want to book an appointment with 2029.
Because it’s now clear that sitting behind Starmer and Reeves are a cohort of leftwing MPs who don’t and won’t care how out-of-whack with they are with the mood of the nation.
Reeves always faced a thankless and perhaps impossible task. She and Starmer made it even worse by imposing fiscal constraints that won the election battle but have hamstrung the subsequent war.
Now either tax rises or more borrowing must come following this week’s events. And/or a loosening of those rules, which can only happen via the blood sacrifice substitution of a new Chancellor.
Probably all three? And neither the electorate nor the bond markets will approve.
It’s all good news for Nigel Farage and Reform. They can keep promising populist tosh to their credulous supporters, while postponing their own inevitable implosion for any future contact with our rickety reality.
Buckle up.
Counting the cost
It’s true I was never crazy for the Starmer/Reeves duo.
As I wrote after 2024’s General Election:
I’m not expecting miracles. I’m barely expecting anything.
Just not shooting ourselves in the foot for a few years would be nice.
The best hope for Labour – and more importantly the country – is that stability and sanity at the top, plus some judicious low-cost tweaks to planning and policy – might unlock capital spending and investment.
Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt had already halted a seven-year-long limbo competition that had taken the bar for standards down to historic lows. I dared to believe Labour might raise it.
However given that – near-uniquely among commentators – I remember and am not afraid to state that Brexit has permanently impaired the UK economy and is responsible for at least £40bn in missing tax revenues – pretty much the sum that all these spending battles are being fought over, though the news reports never mention it – I noted:
This time things really can only get better.
Except that unlike in the 1990s, it’s now more akin to when you come around from a heart attack and a machine is faintly beeping in the background.
…and all we’ve had since waking is hapless palliative care.
Higher taxes on business (such as Employer’s NI), strong talk but little visible results yet on planning and infrastructure, still higher spending, and leaders too fearful to name the blunder that partly put us in this hole.
Belittled Britain
I know it’s boring to be reminded of it again, but it shouldn’t be controversial.
You can’t leave a huge trading bloc that boosted Britain’s GDP for 47 years without economic harm. And you can’t expect that damage not to show up in the nation’s finances.
Well, this is it showing up.
Add to that an unfortunate succession of further costly crisis – Covid, Ukraine – and the UK never stood much of a chance.
We needed a political titan – a Thatcher, an Atlee, maybe even a Heseltine – with the vision, command, and charisma to push through evasive action commensurate with the bodyblow of leaving the EU.
At best we’ve had journeymen. At worst shysters.
Allocate those labels to suit your prejudices. We can all agree that faced with a Herculean task we’ve been short one Hercules.
There aren’t easy options. But curbing state spending was a better difficult decision from here.
At least I’d have made it a multi-generational effort. Toughening up welfare payment rules but getting rid of the unsustainable pension triple-lock as a quid pro quo for starters.
We’re on a road to nowhere
As things stand, following this latest retreat fund manager Gordon Shannon told City AM that the markets will demand tax rises to maintain fiscal stability:
“The market is requiring you to put up taxes, so you do that but then that pushes down growth more, which makes everyone a bit less happy to make investments in the UK. So more money leaves, so your borrowing requirements are higher because you’re trying to support an economy that’s now floundering.
“What do you do there? You’ve got to borrow more.”
“And that means that, you know, an awful lot of things just won’t happen, whether that’s building a new factory or employing new workers starting a business, a lot of these things won’t come through. And at the margin, that definitely means a lowering of the growth trajectory…which was already in a pretty lackluster state. So, yeah, you’re in a bit of a hell slide there.”
It means non-core taxes up again while mainstream tax thresholds are frozen for even longer. The economy paddling nowhere. And voters who feel like they’re going backwards – or who increasingly even leave the UK, if they are rich enough.
There better be something distracting to watch on Netflix…
Have a great weekend.
From Monevator
Our updated guide to find you the best broker – Monevator
How to keep Child Benefit and retire richer despite the High Income Child Benefit Charge – Monevator
From the archive-ator: Why I’m saving and investing for the disaster to come – Monevator
News
Rachel Reeves poised to cut ISA allowance – Yahoo Finance
Disposable income per head slumps despite economic growth – City AM
First-time buyers and retirees set to gain from mooted mortgage changes – Independent
UK on track for biggest year of takeovers since 2021… – City AM
…even as IPO fundraising in London is at a 30-year low… – CNBC
…though Revolut and Octopus mulling joining new Pisces exchange – City AM
AstraZeneca pops on news CEO wants to move base to US – Proactive Investors
MPs tell Rachel Reeves Lifetime ISA rules are ‘nonsensical’ – City AM
Santander to buy TSB: what does it mean for customers? – This Is Money
IFS proposes abolishing triple-lock in wide-ranging pension review [Research] – IFS
House prices see biggest monthly fall for over two years – BBC
Products and services
NS&I launches new fixed-rate savings accounts – This Is Money
Robin Hood offers EU customers access to 200 ETFs and stocks – ETF Stream
Get up to £2,000 when you switch to an Interactive Investor SIPP. Terms and fees apply. – Interactive Investor
Goldman Sachs’ Marcus offers 4.55% one-year savings to new sign-ups – Marcus
Warning over hefty car renewal price rises – Guardian
Get up to £100 as a welcome bonus when you open a new account with InvestEngine via our link. (Minimum deposit of £100, T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – InvestEngine
Experian (re)launches free credit reports – Be Clever With Your Cash
Budget airlines increase cabin baggage sizes ahead of EU rules – Guardian
Homes for sale with outbuildings and studios, in pictures – Guardian
Comment and opinion
£100,000 isn’t a big salary, and we need to talk about it – City AM
Why financial independence is overrated – Of Dollars and Data
Passive investing is fuelling the rise of mega-firms [Research] – Morningstar
Whatc new FCA ‘targeted support’ rules mean for your finances – Which
Slow, steady, sustainable – A Teachable Moment
The boomerang bankers for whom escape becomes exile [Paywall] – FT
How house sitting services enabled one couple to save to buy in London – Standard
Can you get Berkshire-like returns without Buffett? – Meb Faber
Solving the retirement income puzzle [Podcast] – Humans vs Retirement
Private markets update mini-special
Private equity mid-year report – Bain and Company
A valuation reckoning looms – Verdad
The past is prologue for private equity fund returns – K.O.I.
Naughty corner: Active antics
WisdomTree Europe Defence ETF passes $3bn AUM in three months – Trustnet
Buying baskets of swan-diving stocks can work – Morningstar
Just keep going, or reflect and adapt? – Value and Opportunity
How Harry Stebbings went from a podcast to a $650m VC firm – Forbes
This metric suggests it’s time to chase US stocks – Sherwood
London-listed companies pile into Bitcoin [Paywall] – FT
Surprisingly winning chat with billionaire Mike Novogratz [Podcast] – My First Million
Productivity mini-special
Why ‘micro-efficiencies’ are on the rise – Guardian
A new approach to productivity – VegOut
Kindle book bargains
The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell – £0.99 on Kindle
Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology by Chris Miller – £0.99 on Kindle
The Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon by Brad Stone – £0.99 on Kindle
Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less by Greg McKeown – £1.99 on Kindle
Or pick up one of the all-time great investing classics – Monevator shop
Environmental factors
In Japan, fewer people doesn’t always mean more biodiversity – The Conversation
Scientists question this startup’s plan to save the oceans – Associated Press
Can mirrors in space and underwater curtains save the Arctic ice caps? – Guardian
Dual heat domes hit Europe and US [Paywall] – FT
Leeds-Liverpool canal lock gates closed due to lack of rainfall – BBC
Robot overlord roundup
How to get the most out of AI deep research – Operator’s Handbook
Swedish ‘vibe coding’ AI startup Lovable raises $150m at near-$2bn valuation… – T.N.W.
…while GitHub CEO asks: has AI made ‘learn to code’ obsolete? – Freethink
ChatGPT wipes out entry-level jobs – City AM
Productivity, AI, and pushback – Seth Godin
Second-order beneficiaries of AI [Research, April, PDF] – Morgan Stanley
Not at the dinner table
Would you rather have cheap energy, or stupid culture wars? – Noahpinion
The alarming rise of officers behind masks in the US – Guardian
Off our beat
Biscuit museum’s Jaffa Cake display reignites old debate – Guardian
The story of how Google became Google [Podcast] – Acquired
Are two Star Wars Jawa figures from the 1970s worth £60,000? – This Is Money
The ascendance of algorithmic tyranny – Noema
Salvation from slop – Not Boring
The U-shaped happiness/age curve has become a slope [PDF] – NBER
Indie music legends pick their favourite Oasis songs – Guardian
And finally…
“To finish first you have to finish.”
– Charlie Munger, Damn Right!
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I cannot recommend highly enough the Brad Stone Amazon book. 99p is a steal. Great column as always (if depressing).
Concur with your sentiments TI.
Can’t we have just one significant politician and honestly discuss the state of the UKs finances with no bias and a credible financial plan.
We had the Tories throwing the towel in early after they had sunk the economy. Labour handcuffed by election promises on the economy. Reform rubbing their hands in delight. They recently took over my local council on an anti-woke platform. Unfortunately, they are failing to attend meetings such as Adult Care, Planning etc., thus providing no leadership and now no answers to the budget deficit they inherited.
Who was it again who said “it’s the economy stupid”?.
Yep. Hate to do it but I agree with you.
When did our politicians become so bad at politics ? Throwing money at unions and asking nothing in return?
Maybe it will be the IMF again.
Anyone still have Fire aspirations?
Just a comment on the ‘Why financial freedom is overrated’ article.
I’ve seen this idea crop up a lot, that people need to work to be happy, because they lose purpose otherwise. The author talks about financially ‘flexing’ when mentioning being financially independent, but this is the biggest flex of all. It basically says that “I do a really important job and the world would be much worse place without me”. Well good for you, but this isn’t true for most people. Most people do crappy jobs that involve making money for corporations. I’ll be damned if I can see where one derives a sense of purpose from that.
I’ll agree partially with the idea of financial freedom and the ability to swap a meaningless job for one that pays worse but offers fulfillment and purpose. But it’s hardly a given that one can simply walk into one of these jobs.
Great analysis as always.
Never be afraid of exposing the elephant in the room – in the UK’s case Brexit – and the colossal damage it has inflicted on the British economy. But as you suggest, we aint seen nothing yet compared to a 2029 scenario in which the same idiots who brought us that disease will be charge of the country. Perhaps the time is already ripe to begin thinking about how to protect ourselves from the inevitable chaos?
@Lee Briggs. “Can’t we have just one significant politician and honestly discuss the state of the UKs finances with no bias and a credible financial plan.”
It wouldn’t work. Politicians who try to be honest become unemployed at the next election. A majority of the electorate doesn’t want reality and will vote out anyone who tries it. More than anything, the electorate wants anger and grievance. Their fantasy is that they are hard done by. That it was somebody else’s fault for their (false) perception that their life is not as good as they deserve. Reform, like Trump, offers grievance a plenty. Reform is a symptom of irrationality that inflicts an ever larger part of the population.
> Reform is a symptom of irrationality that inflicts an ever larger part of the population.
Are there any recognized causes for a growing part of the population being so afflicted? Accepting it is political suicide to discuss the situation honestly, moving towards an electorate where it would no longer be so is a helpful first step.
@AW I’ll agree partially with the idea of financial freedom and the ability to swap a meaningless job for one that pays worse but offers fulfillment and purpose. But it’s hardly a given that one can simply walk into one of these jobs.
The wonderful thing about financial independence is that you can take a job that pays nothing but offers fulfillment and purpose, aka volunteering. You don’t need to be FI to volunteer, but it helps considerably as you’ve no ‘day job’ to get in the way.
The ‘Chancellor’ was crying on the front bench during PMQs. Hello. I didn’t think it could get much worse after Blair and then the Tories, but just look at the state of it ffs. She lied to get the job and she’s clearly not up to it. Some lippy and a fake smile the next day won’t fix this circus.
@Ecomiser (#8)
I think that’s largely the conclusion I come to. Financial independence means you can do whatever you want, even if that means doing it for free. There’s no cost of failure, so no pressure. Financial freedom suggests you still need to work, but that may simply mean you swap a crappy well paid job for a crappy low paid one. Hardly aspirational. Financial independence must surely still be the goal.
Very much a post that plays to the gallery/prejudices of the mostly very affluent inhabitants of this blog.
I’m not actually a Labour voter, but it seems to me that the Labour MP’s who have pressured the government in recent days are not some ‘loony left Corbynites’, but, at root, MP’s with traditional Labour views of what is important.
What ZX said.
However, TI, I have to push back on the hand wringing over the climb-down. Make no bones about it, the proposals were terrible policy and terrible politics.
Others have already written plenty about what a shambles these “reforms” were (see for example, Frances Coppola). I’ll leave it there, as I don’t want to write war and peace (and believe me, one could on all the flaws in the proposals).
Safe to say, if this was the best Starmer, Reeves and Kendall could come up with, then the adults really aren’t in charge.
Unfortunately we get the politicians we deserve. No party is advocating taking the really difficult decisions, because doing so would make them unelectable.
Unfortunately this means things will deteriorate until a crisis forces the government’s hand. But that’s going to be messy.
It’s exactly the same with climate change, Ukraine, and I’m sure many other issues. Tentative steps that achieve small short term wins, or at least the appearance of, but make the likely worst case scenario slightly more inevitable.
Some paid jobs are kinda fun, most are not. Many volunteering jobs are also not terribly fun, because they are often made up of tasks the paid staff don’t want to do, and/or that the organisation cannot afford to pay for – and for sure, no-one wants to risk a volunteer walking off or damaging something mission critical.
This is one of the dilemmas I face. I’m FI, but have carved out a niche where the hours, work, conditions and pay suit me very well so I might as well keep doing it.
Nothing sums up the current situation like the current Durham Miners Rally where the Palestinian ambassador has been invited as guest of honour no doubt to declaim his current thoughts on the Gaza situation and Jews in particular
The Local Council-now Reform run and presumably representative of the local community has publicly been declined an invitation
These are very deep divisions
Brexit of course is but another example-there are many others
Not sure what the answer to this conundrum is but it increasingly looks like a really serious crisis -financial crash?-is the only way a resolution will be arrived at by installing some sense of reality to our ruling class and their voters
What are investors to do?
Very sad times
xxd09
Labour was given a large majority – albeit on a relatively small share of the popular vote of a more right-leaning public – on a platform that relentless emphasised growth and stability, not more welfare and higher spending.
I’m not making a moral judgement or political opinion here, in particular, just stating facts.
So far we’ve had economic growth-damaging taxes on business and now a week of chaos in Parliament that seeped into the financial markets. Something I’d hoped we’d seen the last of.
I’m not here to stand up for the Welfare bill. I have read the critiques, and I can see it seems hasty and ill-considered, maybe even cruel.
On the other hand, I’m not a young man any more and I cannot remember ANY cuts to benefits or welfare that were acclaimed as thoughtful and reasonable, maybe even kind.
So, you know.
But anyway this bill was what the governing Labour party — with a sizeable majority — put to Parliament, and was routed on. That is inept.
If any readers think I’m talking my book for the affluent classes, you should wait to see the guys waiting in the wings to take over.
Similarly, if we lose the faith of the bond markets again and the UK’s chunky borrowing costs on the national debt rise still further, you can tell me then if you think I was unreasonable making these statements now — ahead of and trying to ward off the far deeper spending cuts that would then be deemed necessary.
Finally, again, I’m hugely sympathetic given that I never forget this country is trying to support the spending expectations of yesteryear on an economy that was purposelessly damaged by Brexit and that few have the guts to remind the public about.
I voted Labour last time and of the current alternatives I’d reluctantly vote for them again. But that doesn’t mean they’re not the barely-best of a bad bunch, or that they’re not making a fist of things.
@TI
“…of a more right-leaning public.”
Really? Why do you say that? Even using the vote result as a gauge, Labour & Green Party had about 40.1% of the vote; Conservatives and Reform 38.0%. Things look fairly evenly divided.
I have to concur with @Trufflehunt that the Labour MPs who opposed the bill were not “Corbyn’s kiddos” and hardly left-wing. But they know that their constituents are asking what Labour has achieved during a year in power; Starmer may claim to see the first green shoots of waiting list reductions in the NHS but those aren’t visible to anyone attending A&E. It looks as if the Labour leadership’s headline policies were to make life worse for those least able to cope with that, the elderly and the disabled, and it was hard for rank and file MPs to sign up for that.
The justification seems to be to “save” small amounts of public expenditure. But we know from 15 years of trying that austerity doesn’t turn the economy around, and what it has done is weakened the public services environment which is needed to support growth. The country needs a different approach, and after all the frustration with Conservative governments the electorate put their faith in Labour to deliver that… and they have flunked it.
I see nothing “left-wing” in the opinions expressed. The first government I became aware of as a child was that of Harold Macmillan, an old-fashioned patrician Tory, but Starmer’s government is to the right of that, and I would say to the right of Heath’s and Major’s too. Current Labour policies are more in line with Thatcher or Cameron. Those backbench rebels simply represent mainstream Labour as it was under Blair or Brown, neither of which were particularly left wing.
The reality is we now have a soft-hard right-wing party in the UK leading in the polls (Reform obviously) and a Tory party that has lurched rightwards in the years post-Brexit.
There’s no equivalent new party on the Left, and without consulting the stats to reply I don’t think the Greens can claim that role either. That said I meant ‘more’ in two sense though — voters more right-wing then they were, yes, but also more right-wing than Labour itself.
Labour has only been in power for nine years out of the last 46 years. That’s about 20% of the time. We can argue about the UK electoral system etc, but this is not a country that leans heavily left-wing.
In any event we all agree Labour ‘flunked’ it. If a majority of the rebel MPs were reasonable as is being argued, then a reasonable and superior compromise could/should have been worked out beforehand. I have my doubts, but the government has failed on either yardstick.
Finally, stand up in Parliament and say the Tories and Reform (/Farage) brought forward these unpalatable choices due to Brexit.
Do it every day. Change the narrative.
They don’t have to argue for rejoining, but at least admit where we are and why.
Collectively we get the politicians we deserve. We don’t want to hear the truth. We recognise something’s not right, there’s no appetite to take difficult decisions so we’ll fight over the share of the pie. A greater amount of our capital will pay for current spending (e.g elderly) through increased taxation which will lower growth further. It’s a doom loop.
Whatever…I barely care any more. The collective electorate is moronic and gets what they deserve. shockingly palliative care, crap state schools, awful court system. I’ve got enough cash now more or less to rise above it. No man’s an island but I’m having a good go. Private schools, health care, lawyers if needed – I can pay my way out of most things now.
Downside is I’m getting totally pumped in PAYE to the tune of hundreds of k each year so will just have to suck it up for a bit longer. After which I’m out of here. There’s still the reasonable possibility of moving to the US workwise where quality of life is clearly much better if you aren’t on the margins but the time to get a green card is a bit problematic. EU passports provide complete optionality too as well.
The bond market will probably intervene eventually.
Seeing as @TI & @TA have done a spoof movie piece before, maybe @TI could channel Carpenter’s (proto cyberpunk) Escape from New York, Scott’s Blade Runner and Gibson’s Neuromancer (‘Escape from Brexit’, or perhaps ‘Let’s exit Brexit’ 😉 ), with @TI as Kurt Russell’s (“call me Snake”) antihero, and a Nigel Farage lookalike for Lee Van Cleef’s Police Chief Bob Hauk (Snake to Hauk “I don’t give a f*** about your Referendum or your Brexit”).
Seriously, bad though it is now, this situation ain’t dystopia, yet.
We might have screwed up ties with our nearest and biggest trading partners, be caught in the middle of a global trade war, be only a year out from race riots across Britain’s towns, have real wars raging across the Middle East, with a fascist clown in the White House, a DM debt crisis brewing etcetera, but, looking back to the 1970s (with Nixon, the Yom Kippur war, the Oil Embargo, the three day week, the 1974 miners strike, the rampant inflation, the 1976 IMF bailout and the 1979 Winter of Discontent), things have been a lot worse.
So, chin up.
Equity markets are at ATHs.
And something really big may be brewing in the productivity space (or not) with Machine Learning (and maybe near future AGI).
Always look on bright side of life, as they say (continuing the film theme) in the Life of Brian – or perhaps that should be Vera Lynn’s ‘We’ll Meet Again’ at the end of Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove.
If we’re rescued by technotopia, then it’s time to go all in Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, ASML, Tesla and Palantir. A corporate profit boom and supply side revolution with relentless deflation beckons. Anything long on future growth goes.
And if we’re on the track to stagflation, slow demographic implosion and Peronist madness with ‘our Nigel’ as the Pied Piper, then it’s contrastingly time to load up on gold/silver/miners and Nick Sleep/Terry Smith/Nick Train quality value plays and maybe some defensive deep value from the EM space.
We’ll find out soon enough which of those two paths we’re on. The high road, or the road to nowhere. Fork in the road time again. As it always is.
Would be interested TI in your views on the opinion piece in today’s Times that the UK’s main act of self harm (that makes Brexit seem a minor blip) was to structure government debt too heavily to short and inflation linked, which is why we are more beholden to the debt markets than others. As we saw with Rachel’s tears.
And why we are pretty much stuffed as a country as a result. It was a scary read!
So on the assumption that no government will ever get elected to do what is needed to sort out our debt structure, is there something us current/future retirees need to factor into our thinking, ie given the likely trajectory of gilts?
Thank you Trufflehunt and Jonathan – a rare bit of lazy analysis from TI for me. There are very few Corbynites left in Labour who haven’t already been suspended. The cost-cutting Labour has proposed has been on the backs of the old, disabled and most vulnerable. Most people of any political persuasion find that objectionable.
What is the oldest democracy with universal voting and how has the problem of promising everybody everything been dealt with in the past? Maybe we need to go back to monarchy!?
I think it is wrong to say we have two major parties. Labour and Conservative contain at least 2 sub-parties. Brexit occurred because Cameron was trying to control the right wing rump. Labour, with a large array of one term backbenchers, has just demonstrated a similar lack of control.
Perhaps if we reduced the number or MP’s by a third we might get a more cohesive system.
@Paraquat — If you’re right then I expect we’ll see a surge in support for Labour in the next local/by-elections. (Spoiler: we won’t).
Again, I voted Labour. They have been given a tight leash to run with by an electorate who largely feels taxes on everyday people are now too high and that life is too hard (regardless of the merits of that view) and who was mostly fed-up with the incompetent Tories versus being wildly enthusiastic about Labour. Now they’ve delivered a week of gross incompetence, it will have knock-on effects, and their chances of re-election are receding fast, which by my lights is not a good thing given the other players currently.
Again, I didn’t say anything about the specifics of this bill in my piece — I said this was no way to govern right now. Perhaps Corbynite was too extreme, I could concede that. But in terms of rebelling against the leadership a year into Parliament and massively damaging their own party, it’s very much in keeping.
@David F — I haven’t read the piece and am not an expert on the government debt markets, but my understanding is that’s completely true. Have a lot of inflation-linked debt was a boon for the many years that inflation was quiescent. Now it’s not! Of course you have to remember that linkers themselves were brought in to deal with another credibility gap of a former age, IIRC
The best lucky break Labour have had all year (and there have been precious few) is that Truss already triggered all the LDI stuff three years ago and the pension funds and others since cleared house.
This week’s dislocations probably weren’t enough to trigger a similar doom-loop — especially given we’re hopefully on the other side of the rate rise and inflation fear hill — but one does wonder…?
@TI #19: “Labour has only been in power for nine years out of the last 46 years”: May 1997 through May of 2010, and then July 2024 to date, makes a total of 14 years on my calculator, so about 30% of the period all told.