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Book Review: Living Off Your Money by Michael McClung

Cover of Living Off Your Money by Michael McClung

How should you manage your money when you retire? Should your portfolio change when you finally sign your F.U. letter to the boss?

Is the famous 4% rule really safe or is there a better way?

While the passive path to accumulating your pension pot is well lit by blogs, books, and preachers of the gospel, the more difficult question of how to safely ration your retirement savings has no simple answer.

Attempts to supply a silver bullet to retirement spending often flounder. Proposed solutions may be unrealistic, mistranslated, too narrow, or grossly oversimplified on their journey from academic journal to custom and practice.

Michael McClung’s achievement is to survey that landscape with the rigorous eye of an engineer who wants to build a house that won’t fall down.

He’s poured his findings into Living Off Your Money. It’s a practical, safety-conscious, and evidence-based manual that DIY investors can use to avoid the retirement quicksands.

Hazards ahead

One big thing lifelong savers need to grasp as they contemplate retirement is that we become more vulnerable as we rundown our stockpile.

An unfortunate sequence of returns can put us on a crash course early on. Inflation and even the blessing of a long life can put us on prison rations in our twilight years.

The situation is worsened because traditional retirement rules-of-thumb like the ‘4% rule’ are about as reliable as ‘red sky at night’.

The 4% rule is prone to failure, numerous caveats that don’t fit into 140-characters or fewer (or even 280), and it’s barely applicable outside the US. And where the 4% rule can leave some retirees on the brink of poverty, it can leave others departing the stage with most of their hard-earned loot unspent.

The system offered by Michael McClung takes a data-forged sword to those twin-headed terrors. His design relies upon two important techniques that many retirees may struggle with:

  • Dynamic asset allocation
  • Dynamic withdrawal rate

Dynamic asset allocation means that your yin and yang of equities and bonds is no longer fixed by some permanent cosmic ratio. Instead, your percentages can pitch up and down depending on the motions of the market.

A 50:50 portfolio could, with McClung’s system, average between 30%-70% equities over the course of a retirement.

In extreme conditions you could end up with 100% of your portfolio in equities. Conversely when equities are storming ahead you’ll convert them into high-quality bonds, ensuring there’s fodder in the barn for when winter comes. And when equities are blown away like dandelions in a category five hurricane you’ll live on bonds until they’re gone. There’s no automatic annual rebalancing here.

With a dynamic withdrawal rate, your income rate can also vary every year.

A tempestuous retirement could see withdrawal rates swing between 2.5% and 6%. Benign conditions might bless you with an average withdrawal rate of 7.7%. When your portfolio swells, a dynamic withdrawal rate lets you spend more. When conditions worsen you batten down the hatches.

All this may make the system sound random, but it’s rather that the plan flexes in response to market feedback. It gives you a brake and an accelerator to apply rather than putting you on rails until your retirement train terminates.

If that sounds like market-timing, it isn’t.

Trial by data

Living Off Your Money builds on the work of other retirement researchers. (These guys have lower profiles than North Korean late-night comedians, and are probably only familiar to you if you’re into obscure financial planning journals.)

All have sought to improve upon the cult of 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawals plus annual rebalancing.

For his part McClung reverse-engineers their systems, tests them to within an inch of their algorithms, and then bolts together the best parts to come up with his recommendations.

The major difference between McClung and most other retirement researchers is that McClung has subjected these formulas to more tests than a talking ape.

Standard practice is to pit your proposals against the historical performance of US equities and bonds and leave it at that.

The danger is that a system that worked well when US assets outgrew those of most other nations may not look so clever when planted in poorer home soils. Even US investors may not enjoy such sunny days again. Non-US residents have no reason to expect to.

McClung guards against this by testing his contestants against the UK and Japanese datasets. Neither has enjoyed the same hot-hand as the US.

No retirement strategy trumps all others, everywhere, every time. Optimisers are missing the point – you might as well try to optimise a baby. What works in one situation won’t always work in another. McClung acknowledges this and recommends a plan that:

  • Works well during historically difficult retirement periods
  • Is robust across geographies
  • Maximises withdrawals
  • Avoids catastrophic failure like a zombie plague
  • Leaves a large margin for error

He doesn’t stop there. McClung also checks his system versus the chilling effects of a low-growth world. His recommendations assume a globally diversified portfolio and performance. McClung’s mindset is world-first, not America-first, which makes his work directly applicable to UK investors in a way that most retirement research isn’t.

The Living Off Your Money strategy can also be calibrated for shorter and longer retirements. That is especially handy if financial independence is on your ‘to do’ list.

Don’t misunderstand me – McClung isn’t claiming his method is fail-safe. Very few retirement strategies would look good after a dose of German-style hyperinflation and being on the wrong side of two World Wars.

There are no guarantees, only probabilities.

The downside

There’s always a downside in investing and the trade-off demanded of you by the Living Off Your Money approach to retirement spending is that you can tolerate a volatile income and asset allocation.

Yes, you’ll probably be able to spend more over the course of your retirement. But there will be times when you’ll need to spend less. (The reality is that many retirees do naturally vary their income anyway outside of the confines of the retirement researcher’s lab.)

Sticking to the plan may also mean going all-in on equities in extreme conditions. Many retirees couldn’t cope with those strains.

To help alleviate some of these issues, McClung explains ways to take the edge off his purest prescriptions.

Floors and ceilings can be used to contain your equity allocation. There’s also an extensive section on creating guaranteed income to cover the bills when your withdrawal rate dips alarmingly low.

You may need to work longer to be able to afford such optionality. That’s the price of sleeping well at night.

Easy doesn’t do it

While McClung is a master of retirement theory, he doesn’t wallow in it. He never loses sight of his goal of creating a book that can genuinely help people.

The explanations are clear, and McClung carefully ropes off step-by-step practical sections that can be chewed on separately if you’d rather skip the methodology hors d’oeuvres.

Yet his work is steeped in integrity. McClung goes to great pains to explain his guiding principles and assumptions and – unlike some financial writers – all of his recommendations can be fulfilled in real life. There’s even a spreadsheet on his website to support anyone who wants to implement his strategy.

None of this changes the fact that reading this book and managing your portfolio by its light requires a fair degree of investment literacy.

The truth is, nobody should manage their retirement investments without a strong financial education and Living Off Your Money can help school anyone, regardless of whether you ultimately apply its teachings.

Long-term Monevator readers will be in their element. But if you just want to get by with a couple of blog posts and a few simple rules that could be printed on a tea towel then this isn’t the plan for you. Your best bet would be to accumulate so many assets that you are left with plenty of room for error.

On the other hand if you have a strong risk tolerance, genuinely enjoy engaging with investing, and want to do more with less then McClung might just change the course of your retirement.

If you’re not sure which camp you fall into then McClung has made three sample chapters available for free.

Alternatively, check Living Off Your Money out on Amazon and let us know in the comments below what you think of it.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

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{ 76 comments… add one }
  • 51 The Accumulator November 19, 2017, 7:20 pm

    Personally, due to the bond outlook I intend to be on the aggressive side of McClung’s recommendation. Probably 40% in bonds. No less. If equities underperform then the bond side of the equation will be liquidated and I’ll end up with a much higher allocation in equities as time passes. We’re most vulnerable to sequence-of-return problems in the first 10-years, so it is a good idea to have a generous bond buffer during that period. If equities outperform and cause me to buy more bonds, well hey, it’s not a problem because the portfolio growth is lifting me clear of emergency situations anyway. Interest rates may well have risen by then too.

    The beauty of this system is that it has several self-correction mechanisms which Hale doesn’t. Hale’s prescription is more of an accumulation portfolio.

    However, I think McClung won’t work for anyone who’s uncomfortable with a portfolio that could go to 100% equities in their dotage. Given today’s outlook, it’s easy to understand why anyone would quail right now at committing a large chunk to bonds, I think it’s the potential for bonds to completely disappear from your asset allocation that needs to be given real consideration. There’s also an inherent danger in projecting the current situation out to the next 40 years.

  • 52 The Accumulator November 19, 2017, 7:24 pm

    @ Lewis – yes, sorry, I think I was confusing matters with my rushed commenting 🙂

  • 53 Barn Owl November 19, 2017, 8:54 pm

    Thanks @TA, that’s a good summary of the issues.

    For Mrs Buffet, we assume that she has so much money from Warren’s will, that she is not planning to spend it all in her lifetime. In which case she can leave the excess in equities. Hence his proposed asset allocation of 90: 10.

    More practically, if you are convinced you have retirement covered and are thinking about legacy, then you could have more in equities (for 40 years time).

  • 54 The Accumulator November 19, 2017, 9:42 pm

    Yes, agreed. Conversely, if I was just scraping by then I’d want a heavy allocation in inflation-linked bonds, or inflation-linked annuities – as much guaranteed income as possible.

    Actually, that’s something I forgot to mention earlier. Later in life, perhaps around age 70, if things look iffy then I’ll consider liquidating some of my portfolio (perhaps most) in exchange for an inflation-linked annuity. The State Pension will come into play and there’s always a reverse mortgage if things are really dire. So there are fallback positions if the market deals us a bad hand.

  • 55 Mr Optimistic November 20, 2017, 8:13 am

    @TA. Thanks. To avoid doubt (by me), coupons and dividends collect in a cash bucket which is drawn first (exhausted each year) then supplemented by bond sales ? Must read it again with a better focus.

  • 56 Mr Optimistic November 20, 2017, 8:23 am

    Ah, just figured it out! Yeah, pollution by a natural yield predudice is a source of confusion.

  • 57 Passive Pete November 20, 2017, 6:02 pm

    I too was surprised by the sell bonds first message, plus the other highlight for me was that the usual total market portfolio performed poorly in retirement. The concept of Harvesting Ratio got me thinking that I might adjust my current portfolio which is loosely based on Tim Hale’s book. I agree that the HR is largely based on US data and, as the book says, it needs more research. However I’m prepared to make some adjustments based on the current research.
    Thanks also to @TA for confirming that I appear to be able to find the correct inputs to the spreadsheet. The recent discussions have helped me clarify my plan of action.

  • 58 Mr Optimistic November 26, 2017, 12:40 pm

    I wonder if he hasn’t been a bit too ambitious with his wanderings off into asset allocation. As I read it, and am now re-read information, the prime harvesting strategy is indifferent to the nuances of equity allocation providing you were diversified, and the bond allocation was a mix of short/ medium term treasuries. In the asset allocation piece, this has become a portfolio tilted towards small companies and value, with a wodge of reits, and the bond allocation has suddenly acquired TIPs.
    I haven’t tried the spreadsheet yet but I would be hesitant in accepting an initial drawdown rate of 4%, let alone higher, if only because the 4% rule has been savaged recently as too optimistic.

  • 59 The Accumulator November 26, 2017, 5:26 pm

    Regardless of who you read, the most important asset allocation you can make is between equities and bonds. The majority of your returns will turn on that decision. However, you can attempt to optimise by diversifying across factors (e.g. small and value) and other assets (e.g. REITS) and sub-asset classes (e.g. inflation-linked bonds). There’s no guarantee this optimisations will improve your position but they have worked out well across long-term horizons. This is standard and not new.

    The 4% rule as savaged is nothing like McClung’s solution and that’s the foundation of the book. The common-or-garden 4% rule is based on withdrawing an inflation-adjusted fixed amount every year. So if inflation goes up by 3% between years 1 and 2 and your portfolio doesn’t rise too then you’ll be withdrawing more than 4% in year 2. McClung’s methods and others like them have safety mechanisms that mitigate the blind step up prescribed by the standard 4% rule. Still, the lower a withdrawal rate you can accept the safer you’ll be so your caution is sensible, it will just cost you more.

  • 60 Mr Optimistic November 26, 2017, 11:47 pm

    Ok and thanks. Am I right to think that the harvesting logic is independent of the details of the equity allocation? Happy enough with 50:50 but not sure either about the tilts or about buying TIPs to then just sell them out for income from day 1. Seems odd to me when short duration bonds were the underpinning for the harvesting logic. Still reading!

  • 61 Passive Pete November 26, 2017, 11:50 pm

    I agree that the ‘traditional’ 4% harvesting ratio is currently likely to be too optimistic. However, the calculated initial drawdown rate is based on the Extended Mortality variable withdrawal strategy which can decrease if market conditions are unfavourable, as demonstrated in the example at the end of chapter 4. Therefore there is an adjusting mechanism built into the calculation of future years harvesting rates that would reduce the percentage below 4% should the portfolio performance be less than originally anticipated.
    I think the book tries to build up marginal gains by starting with the basic harvesting strategy then introducing variable withdrawal strategies that improve overall income on average. It then introduces the harvesting ratio to help identify stronger portfolio types as you describe.
    I agree with @TA that the important asset allocation is between bonds and stock, and this is demonstrated early on in the book in Figure 5.
    I’ve pretty much finished adjusting my portfolio away from large US stocks and into small, EM and REITs.

  • 62 Passive Pete November 27, 2017, 5:28 pm

    The default assumptions for comparing the harvesting strategies are 60:40 equity bonds, 30 year retirement and portfolios of bonds in intermediate (not short) term treasuries and stock in 70% total market and 10% each in small company, small value and large value.
    The ‘bonds first’ strategy was shown by Spitzer and Singh to perform better than other types of strategies such as age related or annual rebalancing.
    Therefore I think you are correct in thinking the Prime Harvesting strategy is independent of equity allocation strategies noted later in the book. I think the tilts are just a marginal gain that you might choose to ignore or work around as we can’t simply replicate those suggested funds here in the UK easily. I’ve bent the rules a little to avoid too many changes to my original portfolio. However I think that in order to make any meaningful improvement you might need to accept the bonds first approach to harvesting. The waterfall mechanism of starting with 50:50 equity:bonds then selling bonds to fund retirement only works if you allow the original ratio to change such that equity can become a much higher percentage as bonds are sold but equity is retained during lower performing periods.

  • 63 Mr Optimistic November 27, 2017, 11:19 pm

    Thanks, being too fussy with equity allocations would also make the rebalancing more complicated and expensive. Didn’t the equity allocation avoid large cap altogether? I will recheck. If so it would mitigate against general global trackers which are capitalisation weighted, and the bonds first harvesting strategy also stands against multitasset funds, eg Vanguard LS. This, together with my predilection for a direct holding in IL means some thinking ( or a hybrid approach).

    I will plough through the spreadsheet to see what the initial drawdown ratio is but I shall stick to no more than 3% in the early years and see how I get on.

    Thanks for your patient replies.

  • 64 IanH November 28, 2017, 2:22 pm

    I’ve just finished a first reading of McClung’s book and think it has a lot useful ideas, in line with many of the earlier commenters. The basis for both dynamic withdrawals and dynamic asset allocation are well grounded in the historical data, and these methods survive out of sample testing. McClung make the case for a portfolio with equal investments in each asset class rather than in proportion to market cap. I’ve wondered before if this is a better option, but have followed the global market cap plan along the lines advocated by Lar Kroijer and others. McClung recognizes that his equal balanced portfolios (e.g his Triad one) will be less comfortable for typical investors, and evaluates wider range, but all the best performing portfolios using his methods are equal balanced. What I’d like to be able to do is work out how my own portfolio measures up with his key measure, the Harvesting Ratio, to assess how far off it is compared to his 4 candidate portfolios. Broadly speaking I’m about 60%/40% equities/bonds with the bulk of the equities developed world but boosting EM to about 13% and keeping UK bias down a bit. The big difference with a typical global market cap portfolio and all McClung’s main candidates is their lack of large cap elements in both US and Intl equities, much more emphasis on small cap, and large and small cap value for US and Intl. He even splits EM into small and value elements for equal investment. So I’ve got no feel for whether it would be a radical re-working to rebalance to say a Triad portfolio or if I am in about the right ball-park and the changes would be good, but second-order effects to an already diversified portfolio, though based on market cap. Insights on this would be welcome. I note Accumulator has already thought through some of the potential for UK fund choices, so perhaps there is more to come there. Add the Triad to the example portfolios at some point?

    McClung’s portfolio also contains REITs. Not sure about this either. I adopted the view that the large cap firms are all heavily into property anyway (Lars K again I think) so there is no point in having a separate REIT element in your portfolio. I read something about weird taxation rules on them too, which further put me off them. How crucial are REITs to the success of adopting a McClung-style approach I wonder?

    Finally, McClung doesn’t say much about bonds at all, by design. I guess that’s as this is the ‘living expenses’ pool and you just stick to as simple as possible plan, almost a savings plan, and forget about it. In my case I’ve gone down a bit of a rabbit warren by adding non-UK sovereign bonds and corporate bonds to my UK gilt and IL bond funds. Plus a bit of cash for the next couple of years expenses and some P2P lending. So it could be I need to tidy this all up a bit, but I am loath to tinker further without good reason. Foreign debt and corporate bonds are a useful diversifier, according to Lars Kroijer, but I wonder if he has backed off from this position in the latest edition of his book – does anyone know if that is so?

    My key questions then are: is the first-order benefit gained from applying McClung’s drawdown and portfolio allocation strategy rather than annual rebalancing to fixed asset proportions; and is modifying a globally diversified market cap portfolio to a Triad (or similar) portfolio necessary to benefit from McClung’s strategy or is the global cap portfolio likely to be adequate and the required changes only offer second-order benefits?

  • 65 Humble Pie November 28, 2017, 4:19 pm

    My interpretation was that the drawdown/withdrawal strategy is independent of the exact asset allocation. The triad and other recommended portfolios in the book are just those that (according to McClung’s testing/analysis) have the best chance of retirement success.

    Whether you include small/value etc should really depend on your own view of how much these are likely to outperform the simple global market cap portfolio over the term of your retirement. McClung thinks they will but if you search around you will see that there are mixed views even from the industry heavyweights.

    I’m also not sure about REITs. I include some as a diversifier but I thought in general they have a smaller expected return than general equities. It wouldn’t surprise me if some other sub asset classes (eg infrastructure funds) do just as well for this purpose.

    FWIW I’ve settled on the following for the equities portion of my portfolio:
    25% Developed market cap
    12.5% Developed small cap
    12.5% Developed value
    20% Emerging markets
    20% UK (plan to reduce this home bias over the next few years)
    10% REIT

    This is fairly similar to the portfolios in Tim Hale’s book. After reading McClung I’ve increased small cap and value but didn’t feel comfortable going all in.

  • 66 Mr Optimistic November 28, 2017, 9:58 pm

    @IH. Re LK 2nd edition , ‘….adding other government and corporate bonds….makes good sense’. So seems still ok. I have bought three copies of the book so hope the minor copyright infringement is tolerable 🙂

  • 67 Passive Pete November 28, 2017, 10:51 pm

    Good questions, but I don’t think there are simple clear answers as the book describes different metrics for measuring the different stages.
    To my mind there are three stages of improvement from the default 60:40 total market portfolio and a fixed rate inflation adjusted withdrawal rate with annual rebalancing.
    1. The Prime Harvesting strategy, where figure 26 shows its success rate as 94.4%, for a 5% withdrawal rate compared with a success rate of 77.8% for the default position shown in figure 5.
    2. The Extended Mortality variable withdrawal rate can improve the efficiency of the strategy as measured in the HREFF-3 column from 68.7% in figure 48 to 99.7% in figure 59.
    3. The composition of the portfolio can be made more robust as shown in figure 124 where the Total Global Market has a HR of 0.18 and MSWR of 4.8% compared with the HR-8×12 (similar to the Triad) that has a HR of over 0.35 and MSWR of 6.8%.
    It’s therefore difficult to ascertain the levels of importance for each stage as we are effectively trying to compare apples with pears. We’ll all have different views and priorities, some might want to leave a legacy, in which case they might not want the most efficient harvesting mechanism.

  • 68 IanH November 29, 2017, 11:38 am

    @MrO – thanks for the info on LK’s 2nd ed. He noted in the press release for it that there were simplifications and I wondered if that was where they would be.

    @Humble – I agree with you that including small cap and small value is taking a view on the market. On balance I’m still in the ‘take no view’ camp. It could be that as these sectors are I think higher variance they potentially increase the frequency that the 20% harvesting boundary is breached, so improve the efficiency of the method. I imagine this is a second-order effect.

    @PassivePete Thanks for indexing those key relevant points back into the book. I’m wondering if the ordering of the points is coincidentally their ranking in their impact. Points 1 & 2 I have got a good grip on, but I will have to re-read on the point three material. This looks like a much bigger effect than I remembered, but I wonder how robust it is. My recollection is by this point in the book he’d had to substitute a proxy scaled market, and argue for the applicability of the measures over short time scales, so this suggests to me a major re-jig of my portfolio would be premature.

  • 69 John Pilkington December 8, 2017, 12:38 am

    Bought the book. Fascinating. Trying to apply it to the UK financial landscape is a bit trickier. So I guessed at a withdrawal rate. ( I couldn’t even get the US links on his spreadsheet to work). I got the impression that the asset allocation of your portfolio isn’t that important, as long as it is diverse. I suppose some of the UK Vanguard Global tracker funds (for example) might do.

  • 70 Passive Pete December 9, 2017, 11:04 am

    @John Pilkington I had a few problems with the spreadsheet links too but I managed to find the information eventually by digging around the federal reserve website and using google. I calculated the overall valuation level to be 3.3 whereas @TA calculated it as 3 (6 weeks previously).

    My inputs are:
    Market value of equities outstanding 25,306.4
    Net worth 23,293.7
    ICAGR20 4.87%
    CAPE10 Value 31.30
    Developed markets CAPE 10 24.3
    EM CAPE 10 16.5

    I agree that asset diversification is more important than where it’s allocated. Figure 124 was illuminating for me in that it shows that the MSWR can be improved significantly without increasing volatility by diversifying into REITs and EMs and by using equally weighted allocations. @IanH has highlighted that this section of the book is based on Simba’s spreadsheet that has data for only 27 and 40 years, so it’s less robust than other parts of the book. Still it was enough for me to make changes to my portfolio.

  • 71 John Pilkington December 9, 2017, 7:17 pm

    Many thanks for that information, Passive Pete, and your comments. This is such a helpful community.

  • 72 The Accumulator December 10, 2017, 9:41 pm

    @ John – I googled ‘Market value of equities outstanding Federal Reserve’ and got the pdf as the top result: z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States Flow of Funds, Balance Sheets, and Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts

    I’ve exchanged a few emails with the book’s author – Michael McClung – and he mentioned that he sees equities as the main inflation hedge. As long as you have access to high quality government bonds then he’s not concerned about access to linkers.

    @ Ian – Michael also made a wise and reassuring comment: Good strategies should have built-in resiliency to moderate variations.

    Perhaps a reasonable analogy is that it’s like eating well. You could eat cauli instead of broccoli every now and then, it probably won’t make much difference. You can even have the occasional cream cake. But there comes a point where you’re eating cream cake so frequently and not broccoli that you’re on a different regime.
    I think Passive Pete is right when he says that diversification across broad asset classes with historically sound returns is more important than the precise allocation. Still, Lars’ portfolio is really designed for accumulators whereas Michael has gone a step further by taking a range of lazy portfolios and testing them against his criteria for retirement.

    To pick up a few points: the historical evidence for small and value factors is robust but there’s no guarantee they’ll work in the future. I suspect what’s at least as important here is that the factors aren’t strongly correlated with a large cap portfolio. Same with REITS. HumblePie is right that they have a lower expected return than equities but they have a reasonably low correlation too, so are a very useful diversifier. You’ll get some property exposure by investing in a global equity portfolio but a far greater degree of diversification by choosing a dedicated fund. There isn’t any tax funny business to worry about if you invest in a REIT index tracker.

  • 73 victor January 3, 2018, 10:57 am

    hi,
    Is this a website for professionals?…I was trying to read the comments and the language made me feel that. any idea for a newbie who wants to invest into a SIPP…nothing fancy, just funds with medium risk…looking at the likes of VLS60….

  • 74 ianh January 3, 2018, 12:05 pm

    Hi Victor
    Just ordinary self-investors here, not finance professionals. You have landed on a post that appeals to people interested in details of different portfolio spending strategies. If you use the ‘custom search’ box top right on the homepage you can find more relevant articles. For example, this is one http://monevator.com/using-vanguard-lifestrategy-funds-life/ is closer to what you want.

  • 75 The Accumulator January 3, 2018, 9:23 pm

    Hi Victor (and thanks ianh)
    We’ve lined up some ‘start here’ posts here: http://monevator.com/category/investing/passive-investing-investing/

  • 76 John Pilkington January 11, 2018, 1:31 pm

    Hi, I don’t know if anyone is still looking at this, but I have been ‘practicing’ with the spreadsheet from the book. My fortunate position is that I have a pension that will cover my essential needs and a pot of savings invested. So, I don’t really need the 50 stocks / 50 bonds balance suggested by Michael as the starting point for most people. I’m wondering if the figures would work for an 80 stocks /20 bonds balance.
    I’m thinking the valuation tilt would be 60 % (the highest given) for a 30 year outlook. (I’m referring to the second and third ‘sheets’ or tabs on his spreadsheet).
    Also, with an 80% stock holding, I would expect the withdrawal amount to be more variable year on year depending on the past year’s inflation percentage (which is also on another sheet in the spreadsheet).

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