What caught my eye this week.
The surge in mortgage costs as millions have rolled-off barely-there fixed-rate mortgages has been a bit of an anti-climax, hasn’t it?
Sure the resultant property market is far from perky. And life is certainly tougher if you’ve had a higher mortgage – or rent – bill to pay, on top of the rest of the cost-of-living crisis
But we’ve not seen a massive nominal house price crash. Let alone a wave of repossessions.
According to an ongoing deep dive by This Is Money this week:
The Bank of England’s latest figures showed the value of outstanding mortgage balances with arrears increased by 9.2% in the three months to December 2023, compared to the previous three month period.
Arrears rose to £20.3 billion, which was 50.3% higher than a year earlier.
The proportion of mortgages that were in arrears increased to 1.23%, which UK Finance says is the highest proportion since the final three months of 2016.
These are leaps to be sure. But they sprang off a very low base.
Overall there are still only 107,000-odd mortgages in arrears. That’s roughly half as many as at the peak of the financial crisis.
Going nowhere
What’s the difference? High employment, I’d say. As long as people have their jobs, they’ll throw everything at their mortgage for as long as they can.
This Is Money cites evidence that savings are being depleted. Some of that may be going on mortgage payments, and that can obviously only go on for so long.
But equally it doesn’t really prove huge stress. Most people who have savings were probably running their budgets with some wriggle room in the first place.
Where I do see stress is in the buy-to-let market.
There’s not been a wave of selling there either, clearly. But I don’t see many people too enthusiastic about becoming new landlords today – and those that are keen are surely being swayed mostly by past performance figures.
Those earlier gains were achieved by a huge escalation in price-to-earnings ratios for property and a historic grind lower in rates. We might see a little of the latter, as rates dip over the next couple of years. But could multiples really go higher?
We’ll see, but right now the numbers don’t stack up – not in London, anyway, despite a population boom.
The flat opposite for me has been looking for a tenant for months. The rent set by the hard-charging Foxtons agency is likely too optimistic. But I still can’t make the yield work for its owner, compared to other places they could invest the money.
Nevertheless with interest rates much more likely to fall than rise following the encouraging inflation figures this week, the UK property market has once again proved to be a mighty end-of-level boss.
People would have – and did – predict carnage in 2022 when rates began to rise.
But the price crash has been in real terms only. And money illusion dulls that pain.
Article errata
I hate having to do this, but unfortunately we published two mistakes this week. They were immediately updated on the web site. But I don’t want to spam anyone’s email inbox with corrected resends, so this will have to do.
By far the most important is that bond funds pay income gross – that is, with no tax deducted.
With my co-blogger The Accumulator away, I took over updating duties for his bond tax article. And I totally missed a change in the legislation some years ago.
On the one hand, this is why we revisit old articles and try to keep them up-to-date. That original article was written in 2015. This tax change alone proves it was long overdue a makeover.
On the other hand, look what happens when the stock-picking guy is let loose near fund stuff. Please lobby The Accumulator to get his priorities’ straight!
At least the second error has his fingerprints on it. Because no, Japan hasn’t posted superior equity returns to the US over the past over however many years. Not even in real terms and after its recent rally.
I suppose @TA was writing under the influence when he let this gremlin through. But I should have spotted it myself, so mea culpa.
We consider getting nerdy investing stuff right a USP of Monevator. Apologies from us both.
Have a great weekend!