What caught my eye this week.
If you traveled back to the year 1900 and told people that, in 125 years, adults would live 30 years longer than they did, the late Victorians would be astonished—and likely envious.
Another three decades to work, rest, and play!
Think of all those extra Saturdays down the mines or in the sweatshop factories they’d enjoy. And all those extra lumps of coal for Christmas.
Well here we are in 2025 – expecting to live into our 80s and almost all with lives of far less physical hardship – and yet it’s rare to read a story about increasing longevity that isn’t tainted with doom.
I agree politicians would struggle to deliver a good news message about a population of older yet healthier citizens remaining productive for many more years. Disinformation is off the charts today.
And yet as Andrew Oxlade writes in This Is Money this week:
Research cited in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, based on samples in 41 countries, suggested the average 70-year-old in 2022 had the same cognitive ability as a 53-year-old in 2000.
It is a remarkable improvement for such a short period. The report, published last month, suggested such improvements mean those employed at 70 see a 30 per cent uplift in earnings.
Oxlade explores the financial implications of longer and more productive lives. Like myself, he doesn’t see getting out of work entirely as always the best goal for most people – or even a possibility for many.
But having a decent Chasing Cows fund brings more than just an all-out card:
Optionality can help future-proof you from the stick of rising pension ages. And it is always good to have options, as you don’t know how you will feel about life and work in the future.
In any event it’s hard to see – and given the implications, you wouldn’t want to see – State pension ages not being higher in the future.
Still crazy after all these years
Indeed Denmark has just raised its retirement age to 70 – the highest in Europe.
The BBC reports:
Since 2006, Denmark has tied the official retirement age to life expectancy and has revised it every five years. It is currently 67 but will rise to 68 in 2030 and to 69 in 2035.
The retirement age at 70 will apply to all people born after 31 December 1970.
Meanwhile the age at which you can claim a UK state pension will start to rise again next year. It will hit 67 by March 2028.
I’m caught squarely by the move, unlike my co-blogger the wizened old Accumulator. He’s just snuck under the wire.
Good for me! Personally I’ll be delighted at having to wait a couple more years to access my State pension if that’s the cost of having a few more years to enjoy this beautiful planet.
Cynics will retort that I say this from a position of privilege. I’ve got my (hard saved and carefully invested…) capital at my back. I don’t expect to retire into near-poverty after a hard life of earning nothing much.
That’s true. But firstly to some extent you make your own luck – we all understand around here the power of saving even small amounts over a lifetime. (Remember the Tin Can millionaire? He was Swedish, incidentally.)
Secondly, I’m not convinced that the happiest people are always those with the most money.
We all know counterexamples – people who seem to get by on little more than thin air with a relish for life – albeit I’d rather not take my chances with them!
Your mileage may vary. Fair enough. But do you really want to be thinking like the person quoted in The Guardian headline this week who called the pressure to delay retirement: “Ludicrous and unfair”?
From the article:
Although some thought the IMF’s idea was good, an overwhelming majority expressed outrage, typically describing the concept that older people should retire later to ease fiscal pressures as “disgusting”, “ludicrous” and “unfair”.
“Seventy is not the new 50. That’s propaganda,” said a 63-year-old NHS admin worker from Dundee. “Having worked since the age of 18, retirement cannot come soon enough for me. I find travelling for work stressful and long for a time when my days are my own. I am tired.”
For many more working class people, retirement will indeed be a relief.
But I question whether it will be the panacea they hope for, given they’re mostly going to be financially pressured, and that in at least some cases they lacked the imagination to see it coming for the past four decades.
It’s a great thing we’re living longer, healthier lives. Let’s plan for it and look forward to it.
Let’s invest as if we’ll make it to 100!
Have a great weekend.
From Monevator
Investing for beginners: risk versus reward – Monevator
Buying The Living is Yield-y: a natural yield model portfolio – Monevator
From the archive-ator: Why you should write a will – Monevator
News
The FT no longer allows access to articles via search. Paywalled articles noted.
UK inflation surges to 3.5% on April bills shock… – Sky
…but typical energy bill will fall by £129 from July, says Ofgem – Sky
Starmer confirms U-turn on winter fuel payment cuts – Guardian
Trump threatens 50% tariffs on EU and 25% on smartphones – BBC
Reeves suggests no cut to total £20,000 ISA limit, but cash ISAs still in play – This Is Money
Londoners working from home could boost pension pot by £236,000 – City AM
Moody’s downgrades US credit rating, citing growth in government debt – CNBC
UK’s 50 richest families own more wealth than 50% of the population, study finds – Guardian
Kensington and Chelsea house prices fall to lowest level since 2013 [Paywall] – FT
Brexit episode 34394394939 mini-special
New trade deal to reset relations with EU… – Sky
…almost a decade after Brexit nearly broke them – CNN
…though predicted £9bn boost is only a 0.3% offset to the long-run 4% p.a. hit to GDP [Paywall] – FT
…and success will depend on whether promises are delivered – Sky
…because, like octopus, the latest UK-EU deal is a mixing blessing – BBC
Recall 55% of Britons polled in January thought Brexit a mistake. Only 11% saw success – YouGov
Products and services
UK’s first new current account in three years pays 3.25% – T.I.M.
A closer look at two new 100% mortgages – Which
Mortgage rates ‘set to creep up’ on jump in UK inflation – Property Industry Eye
Get up to £1,500 cashback when you transfer your cash and/or investments to Charles Stanley Direct through this link. Terms apply – Charles Stanley
Mastercard to pay out £100m to millions of customers – This Is Money
Are private medical insurance perks worth it? – Which
Santander axes debit card cashback – Be Clever With Your Cash
Get up to £100 as a welcome bonus when you open a new account with InvestEngine via our link. (Minimum deposit of £100, T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – InvestEngine
UK-wide parking app to be rolled out after pilot scheme – Guardian
The best restaurant discount restaurants and apps – B.C.W.Y.C.
Homes for sale with access to coastal paths, in pictures – Guardian
Comment and opinion
Innovation and stock market bubbles – Verdad
Owners of second homes in Wales are having to sell up. That’s a godsend – Guardian
Teach kids about money early – Humble Dollar
You can’t put a price on mental freedom – Of Dollars and Data
30 great quotes from financial history – CFA Institute
How sequence risk can derail your retirement, with Wade Pfau [Video] – YouTube
Scar tissue – Best Interest
Life is about trade-offs – A Wealth of Common Sense
The (still) Simple Path to Wealth [Podcast] – Morningstar
New international standards coming measuring GDP and inflation – K.O.I.
Government bond mini-rout mini-special
Why the bond market is barfing – Axios
New 30-year gilt pays 5.375% – This Is Money
The curse of understanding finance – We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards
Why interest rates are shooting up all around the world [Podcast] – Bloomberg
The bond market is not amused – The Bond Dad
The Japanese government bond market is in trouble [Paywall] – FT
Naughty corner: Active antics
The hardest day to invest is always today – Ted Seides
S&P 500’s earnings momentum brightens as tariff-induced cuts dwindle – Sherwood
Create a Python script to automate portfolio rebalancing [Research, nerdy] – SSRN
Strict rules haven’t helped this market-timing ETF [US but interesting] – Morningstar
Kindle book bargains
Hype Machine: Inside the Cult of Crypto by Joshua Oliver – £0.99 on Kindle
The Price of Money by Rob Dix – £0.99 on Kindle
The Great Crashes: Lessons from Global Meltdowns by Linda Yueh – £0.99 on Kindle
Failed State: Why Britain Doesn’t Work by Sam Freedman – £0.99 on Kindle
Or pick up one of the all-time great investing classics – Monevator shop
Environmental factors
The right’s opposition to renewables is anti-scientific and anti-economic – Paul Krugman
Using thermal drones to help protect Australian tree kangaroos – Yahoo
How an idealistic tree-planting project turned into Kenya’s toxic, thorny nightmare – Guardian
Batteries that absorb carbon emissions one step closer – The Conversation
Robot overlord roundup
The siren song of advertising – Generative Value
AI and work: some predictions – Cal Newport
The Agentic Web and original sin – Stratechery
AI agents will do the grunt work of coding – Axios
China has taught AI to lie – Pete Warden [h/t Abnormal Returns]
Not at the dinner table
Is the US a ‘high-level equilibrium trap’? – Noahpinion
Trump orders the government to stop enforcing rules he doesn’t like – W.P. via MSN
Guess who’s coming to dinner with $TRUMP – Sherwood
Off our beat
Man in Norway wakes to find huge container ship in his garden – BBC
The value of institutional memory – Tim Harford
Nobody reads – We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards
Inside China’s ‘stolen iPhone building’ [Paywall] – FT
Why money and power affects male self-esteem – BBC
How one tiny ancient language spread across the world – Slate
Turn every page – Brad Feld
“They’re not paying me enough to care” – Seth Godin
And finally…
“Never buy anything from someone who is out of breath.”
– Burton Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street
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1995 and I started a new job and during induction a guy from finance was discussing the DB Pension and said good news and bad news ‘Good news, you are all in an excellent pension scheme and you should all live longer, the bad news, you might not get the state pension you was promised’. The room erupted with disgust whilst I sat in silence pondering. I soon realised that the great state pension could not go on forever in its current guise. I’ve argued for years that the welfare system will bankrupt the country as the workforce diminishes and the country becomes like Japan with an aged society.
A very positive start to my weekend! Thank you, @TI.
Years ago at my first job, perusing the in house magazine, a slighty older colleague pointed out the typical short time between featuring in the reports of retirement presentations and in the obituaries. His conclusion: retirement is positively harmful , best to keep going as long as one can with work.
Some form of “light duties” or reduced hours could perhaps keep more folk in work to their benefit and that of us all, but most workplaces are very poor at providing such options. Needs to be addressed better if we are all to work to 70.
#1
Oh that the UK was like Japan!
Is the New 30-year gilt pays 5.375% (This is Money article above) worth investing in as part of your Stocks/Bonds portfolio balancing ? Seems inflation-beating for the most part if 2-3% is maintained.
Some of those legendary investors are living / lived to a ripe old age. E.g. John Templton, Ed Thorpe (saw him doing pull-ups at 91 recently), Buffet, Munger.
Something about learning new things all the time being associated with part of the brain whose size is correlated with longevity – anterior cingulate cortex I think
Re: “the average 70-year-old in 2022 had the same cognitive ability as a 53-year-old in 2000”
I find this really confusing, as I did when I read it a few weeks’ back. A 70-year-old in 2022 was a 48-year-old in 2000, so there’s only a 5 year age gap between the two groups. So what is it telling us? Were the 2022 group much smarter than those 5 years older than them in 2000? Or were they the same but haven’t lost it in the intervening years? Or a bit of both?
As a wise man once said: “The great secret about the National Insurance fund is that there ain’t no fund”.
In the Pete Warden item “China has taught AI to lie”, the Tiananmen Square image description says “three tanks” but FWIW the image clearly shows four tanks.
AI “error”?
Good catch, Invariant. Makes me wonder if it is lead in petrol related.
“said a 63-year-old NHS admin worker from Dundee. … I am tired.”
We must all know tradesmen who have retired because their knees or back have let them down. What, though, lets down an NHS admin worker? Bum?
I accept that the state pension age will need to go up to prevent the govt from going broke. But please can we decouple the age when you’re allowed to draw your private pension (the ‘normal minimum pension age’) from the state pension age. The former is currently 10 years before the latter. I don’t think it’s right to penalise those who have taken personal responsibility and filled their personal pension by delaying the time from which they can access it. Appreciate this is whistling in the wind, but wanted to get it off my chest
To read FT articles just copy and paste the URL at archive.ph
Works for everything
Cracking set of links this week and cracking set of comments. I think the Danes have the right sort of idea, but a superior mechanism would be to peg retirement age to Healthspan (average age at which the population develops a serious disease). This would give the government a direct financial incentive to link healthcare policy to healthspan which I’m sure we would all appreciate. Might stop them from watering down every public health initiative in the face of lobbying for example
@TI, isn’t it nearly time for @ TA’s fourth year FIRE anniversary?
In June 2024, he wrote that he planned to return to full time work for a year to rebuild the bridging fund stash post house renovations?
I’m keen for the next chapter/instalment and I bet others are as well!! I hope the lovely house refurbishment has been a success … But what next?
Does he want a pony now? Ha. Keen to know if the new j.o.b is still great and if it has inspired a permanent rethink.
@Andy Defresne #12
Once you realise that the second objective of a Government is to raise as much revenue as possible (the first being reelection) you’ll understand the reason for this policy. Which is: Later in your career you’re likely to be earning more than earlier. So, there’s an incentive to keep such people working as the tax take will be higher.
Cheers all for the comments. 🙂
I’m aware of the archive solution for paywalled links, but as I’ve shared with other readers who have (generously) taken the time to email me, I’m not happy using it here and sending it out to thousands as it’s basically pinching their content as far as I can tell. One thing to use personally, another to industrialise it in this reading list. (I was happy with my previous search compromise, as obviously they were aware it was possible, and readers still saw their site and ads).
And of course we have a paywall ourselves so it’d be rather hypocritical too.
Publishing online is absolutely under the cosh now. Ad rates and traffic has already collapsed, and AI is putting the boot in.
Nobody likes to pay for stuff, especially digital stuff, I understand.
But it’s entirely possible we won’t even be able to compile a Weekend Reading link list like this in a few years. Everyone will just have to talk to their chatbots, or watch YouTube I suppose.
@Andy — Agreed, it would seem to be a sensible compromise to enable people to access private pensions early. I don’t even see a downside from the government as it gets that money out into the economy rather than being (tax) sheltered away for longer, too.
@TI – I think the government is playing the longer game by not allowing early access to private pensions – greater chance there is money unspent to get IHT from, and people able to retire early are more likely to be higher economic contributors, so they’d rather minimise an incentive for them to retire earlier.
@12/16/18
The reason why pensions can only be accessed 10 years before state pension is to manage the risk that people spend it and fall back on the state for housing and other benefits
Clearly we can all retire when we want – it just means savings/isa/gia to fund the pre Sipp access period.
@TI ‘Nobody likes to pay for stuff, especially digital stuff, I understand.’ with one exception – the fabulous content being put out here! Thanks all at MV Towers, keep up the good work
“If you traveled back to the year 1900 and told people that, in 125 years, adults would live 30 years longer than they did, the late Victorians would be astonished—and likely envious.”
Not every word ending in -ly is an adverb. “Likely” is one of those. It’s an adjective, and modifies nouns, for example in “a likely candidate”.
“I agree politicians would struggle to deliver a good news message about a population of older yet healthier citizens remaining productive for many more years. Disinformation is off the charts today.”
Disinformation is not “off the charts today”. The amount of political disinformation (a calque derived from a Russian phrase uttered by Joseph Stalin) in the world has diminished markedly since the fall of the Soviet Union and its associated central-European socialist regimes.
If you begin an article by talking about the late Victorians, please don’t be surprised if you’re held to some sort of historical quality standard later on.
While the data are now slightly out of date, the article at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/articles/howhaslifeexpectancychangedovertime/2015-09-09 suggests that life expectancy at birth has increased by 30 years or so since 1900 (as per your text), but life expectancy at 65 has only increased from about 11-12 years in 1900 to 18-20 years in 2010 (and about 20-22 years now), i.e. by about a decade or so. Reductions in child mortality from over 200 per 1000 births in 1900 to 4 in 2020 explains a large proportion of that increase. Public health (e.g., vaccination and sanitation), improved working conditions (e.g., health and safety), and access to medical treatments explain much of the rest.
Thank you for the link to the Seth Godin piece. Short but packs a real punch!
@Rhino — Thank you so much! 🙂
@Boltt — That’s one motivation for keeping us locked out of private pensions, but as your answer reflects it also disincentives people to save into them. Which of course will also leave more people falling back on the State. 🙂 Perhaps it was fair enough when the State Pension age was lower, but I think there’s a strong case for unshackling the link from here.
@AlanS — Thanks for the more granular detail. 🙂 Perhaps our time traveller is talking to a newborn… 😉 That said my quick Google did give me an ambiguous answer from Gemini. Perhaps we’re safe from AI a little longer.
@Nebilon — Welcome, I often find that with Godin pieces. @TA can’t abide him *shrug*
@Jonathan — Completely agree that we’re not anywhere near Soviet Union levels of disinformation, though the direction of travel is clear, especially with the current leadership in the US / associated parties in Europe. But it’s true I wasn’t benchmarking against the Politburo. I hold us to a higher standard. 😉
Flyer123, the new 30 year 5.375% coupon gilt is already trading at £98, so YTM of about 5.5%.
These can be a very risky investment if rates climb much higher, so it depends on your time horizon.
But I’m considering adding to my income/drawdown portfolio to lock in a good yield, although I’d have to hold until I’m 84 to guarantee not losing.
Until then, as well as the healthy income it serves as a deflation/disinflation hedge. It won’t work great in the current stagflationary environment but it could be a good time to scale in over the next year. DYOR of course. Others will choose gold and bitcoin as diversifiers as they fear both GBP and USD becoming worthless.
I’m hoping the Bank of England will at least be able to keep inflation to 4% or less over the next 30 years even if they fail (as usual) to ever hit their 2% target.
On cognitive decline, a recent meta-analysis suggests “use of digital technologies was associated with reduced risk of cognitive impairment and and reduced time-dependent rates of cognitive decline.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-025-02159-9
@AlanS There’s also a nice chart here which strips out the impact of infant mortality over time
https://ourworldindata.org/its-not-just-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-improved-at-all-ages
@TI
Thank you for the link to 30 great quotes from financial history.
Had to laugh….
“The most common exit strategy was that we lost all our money.”
—JACK MELCHOR, venture capitalist
@platformer (#27)
Thanks for that link – ourworldindata is a wonderful resource and a model of good data presentation
The suggestion that the average 70-year-old in 2022 had the same cognitive ability as a 53-year-old in 2000 is clearly nonsense and Invariant has already pointed out why it doesn’t make sense. In reality in developed countries I suspect we have got better at keeping people alive longer but with poorer health in those later years. Reduction in smoking, better sanitation and improved air quality amongst other things have been factors too.
It’s a good example of how silly ideas become established when these ideas are based on poor science but get shared and shared again as if they are fact.
Always good to look for the source of the supposed fact. If we attempt to find the source of the nonsense here that takes us to Online Annex 2.2 to Chapter 2 of the April 2025 World Economic Outlook. Looking at that still leaves us with more questions than answers. But reading that you are already realising this is poor quality data with potentially significant selection and other biases for example in who responded to the self reported survey questions. I don’t think they chose the respondents randomly and then sent out people to the homes or care homes of those selected to do the survey and survey tests. More likely those able to understand and motivated to answer the questions and do the tests returned the surveys and those with dementia or other cognitive impairments did not return the survey.
@xeny #18
In my cynical view, I believe a Government’s planning rarely extends beyond trying to win the next election. So they’d rather have the income tax now to help achieve that aim rather than risk, say, Nigel Farage’s future government, getting their hands on the IHT later.
But I want to retire so I can read more books – so there IMF/Oxlade and We’re Going To Get…(insert thumb to nose emoji).
On a (slightly) more serious note, I think boredom is often forgotten in these discussions of working longer. I’ve done the same job for 36 years – and I’m bored with it and the endless management bollocks. Yeah, maybe I could go and sit on a checkout to do something different – but I bet they have management bollocks too!
Here are some US figures I’ve come across this weekend.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
You’ll see that, for example, as of 2021 an American male of age 62 (at which time I understand he’ll be able to draw “Social Security” i.e. his Old Age Pension) can expect to live another 19 years.
The Market Ticker blogger points out that the figures are virtually identical to the corresponding figures for 2004, from which he infers that the huge sums spent on cancer research have probably had no measurable effect on extending US lifespan. (Alternatively, he argues, some unknown causes are undermining US lifespan by just the right amount to cancel out any good done by the cancer research.)
Paul Krugman claims that fossil fuels receive billions of subsidies. If you count not taxing something a subsidy, this is true. And yet renewables receive even more.
Further, fossil fuels raise something like $20b in tax revenue at something like 0.5¢ a kWh compared to $3b tax revenue at 0.2¢ a kWh for renewables.
This doesn’t include the additional cost in transmission & distribution required for renewables and high land use.