Weekend reading: uncertainty, everywhere, all at once

What caught my eye this week.

I suppose it’s an occupational hazard of writing a weekly column that you become prone to thinking you’re living in particularly excitable times.

So for the record I agree that a 1930s Monevator would have been plenty preoccupied with the Great Depression and the backdrop to war.

Similarly, students dropping out of the rat race and Neil Armstrong popping onto the Moon would have provided plenty of food for thought in the 1960s.

Just since this blog started, we’ve had a financial crisis, riots in the capital and beyond, an economically witless rupture with Europe, and a global pandemic.

Even so, in 2026 the historical tumble dryer really does seem to have gone into a fast-spin mode.

And I’m not even talking about the latest grim Epstein revelations.

Top Trumped

Tellingly, the two factors driving this year’s tumult are tracked here in Weekend Reading by special link sections I introduced on account of their potential to cause mayhem.

The first is the ongoing disintegration of political norms in the United States under Trump.

As an independent floating voter, I happily ignored politics on this website for the first decade of Monevator’s existence.

The reason Brexit eventually loomed large on Monevator was, firstly, that it fell outside the normal political programming; secondly, that I was sure it would hit both our national and personal finances (see the chart below); and thirdly, because of what it represented – to me, a tech-enabled rekindling of an ugly old populism.

That was also why I began tracking US politics after Trump’s re-election.

That this man could be President after what happened in the 6 January Capitol riots was already beyond the pale. It pointed to those same populist forces growing stronger.

True, both Republicans and Democrats had been polarising into more extreme positions for years. But Trump represented a new and anarchistic impulse that boded even worse.

It seemed to me very likely that his taking office would have consequences for the whole world. And that, of course, is exactly what we’ve seen.

You needn’t be woke to wake up

I’m not talking here about whether you like Trump’s persona or not. (There’s no denying he’s charismatic.)

Indeed perhaps you can live with the President of the United States telling female journalists they should smile more – rather than answering questions about child abuser Epstein – or posting a video depicting the Obamas as apes.

For my part, it makes me feel angry and ill.

But all of us should be concerned by Trump’s kicking over the global order he inherited on entering the White House.

Trump’s domestic extremism is no exaggeration, as the Financial Times notes:

The speed, scale, flagrance and persistence of the Trump administration’s deviations from established legal and constitutional norms during his second term have been so dramatic that it bears stepping back and taking stock.

Within hours of his January 2025 inauguration, Donald Trump had pardoned hundreds of people convicted of political violence — a hallmark of aspiring autocratic regimes — and shown tacit support for violent resistance to electoral setbacks.

Days later he removed legal protections from civil servants and fired 17 oversight officials charged with tackling fraud and corruption.

By March the administration was in open conflict with the courts, summer saw police firing rubber bullets at protesters and the removal of the labour statistics agency chief in the wake of weak jobs numbers, and this month brought the criminal investigation into Fed chair Jay Powell and the shootings of Renée Nicole Good and Alex Pretti by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.

While US history is hardly free from political violence or maltreatment of disfavoured groups, this blitz on America’s citizens, institutions and — by many estimations — the constitution itself ranks as arguably the most rapid episode of democratic and civil erosion in the recent history of the developed world.

But to my mind Trump is not just an American problem. And not only because the way he runs his office can only embolden similar characters elsewhere. (See Trump’s Profiteering Hits $4bn in The New Yorker for a recap of his business as unusual).

It’s more because, from a selfish perspective, the end of the global rules-based order that Trump is undoing – to no benefit for the US, incidentally – enabled countries like the UK to earn more from trade, spend less on defence, and enjoy higher living standards.

Noah Smith describes what we’re getting in exchange for that system as ‘international financial anarchy’, arguing it’s why gold has been on a tear for the past year.

Smith warns:

Goldbugs are thus right about gold’s durable safe-haven status, but they’re not right that this is a good thing.

Gold isn’t a superior system — it’s a desperate fallback for a world in which the people who were in charge of the superior system abdicated their duties.

Which sort of takes the shine off the rally, eh?

AI is eating the software that ate the world (maybe)

The other big tumult in 2026 is being driven by – shock horror – artificial intelligence.

Huge market dislocations have hit both legacy software companies threatened by AI insurgents, and also the listed behemoths who are deploying oceans of capital into supporting all this AI that nobody else is really yet paying for.

Here’s just a sampler of the week’s news:

• Software stocks hit by Anthropic wake-up call on AI disruption – Reuters via Yahoo
• How the AI trade has changed (for the worst) in 2026… – Sherwood
• …and how it now threatens a Wall Street cash cow – Wall Street Journal
• Big tech loses $1.35 trillion as AI spending fears spark sell-off

It’s emblematic of the times when shares can sell off both because they are being disrupted by AI – and because investors are nervous about those same disruptors.

Though that’s not necessarily illogical.

Maybe cheaper AI models are going to crush margins for nearly all software companies, while delivering merely commodity profits to the big AI companies and the hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon?

An everyone-loses scenario, in other words. It’s enough to give a stock picker heartburn.

Disruptors disrupted

Passive investors may wonder, as some did before 2022’s rout, whether I’m crying wolf.

The markets are still near all-time highs, after all.

However, turnover beneath the surface has been pretty wild.

Multi-trillion-dollar Amazon began Friday down 10%, for example. Meanwhile a whole host of former ‘software as a service’ darlings are 30–50% below their peaks.

Even the UK market has not been immune, as some of the rare few companies in London that seemed to have a nodding acquaintance with the 21st century were overnight cast as losers on the arrival of a new plug-in for Claude AI:

The question: is AI going to destroy ‘old economy’ (guffaw!) tech stocks, or does the re-emergence of investor nervousness about the lavish spending plans of the likes of Microsoft and Amazon suggest more of a dotcom bubble-bursting type moment?

And if there is a dotcom crash parallel, will it still only be a matter of time, anyway – like how the Internet eventually did remake everything from music and movies to taxi cabs?

Or conversely, will AI run out of puff like, say, the metaverse or 3D printing or NFTs?

Pick your knows

For my part, I’ve rarely been more uncertain about how things will go.

How ironic! The potential dispersal among the winners and losers seems extreme, which in theory means lots of opportunities for portfolio outperformance, and yet the existential-level uncertainty is enough to make even a veteran active investor want to pause stock picking, buy the whole market, and let them fight it out for a decade.

I’m probably not going to do that. But that doesn’t mean it’s not a good idea.

Value conscious

On the other hand, perhaps it’s all just the age-old cyclical ups and downs dressed up with new buzzwords and fears?

The following chart is certainly suggestive:

Source: FA Mag

Who knows? But when it comes to ‘interesting times’, I think I’d rather have been confronted by the hippies!

At least they had good tunes.

Have a great weekend.

From Monevator

The Financial Services Compensation Scheme – Monevator

FIRE-side chat: Actively frugal – Monevator

From the archive-ator: Tax-efficient investment – Monevator

News

Interest rates held at 3.75% as BoE cuts growth outlook – Yahoo Finance

OBR: millions more to be hit by salary sacrifice curbs – Professional Pensions

The average house price is now above £300,000, says Halifax… – Guardian

…with one in 45 UK homes worth over £1m, per Savills – Property Industry Eye

Harry Styles and Anthony Joshua among the UK’s top taxpayers – BBC

One in seven UK landlords don’t make a profit – Landlord Today

At least 1m people missed the self-assessment tax deadline – This Is Money

FCA fails to act on premium finance insurance ‘rip-off’ – Which

Driverless cars in London ‘by the end of the year’, says Waymo – Standard

The latest estimate of the economic costs of Brexit on the UK – Econofact

Products and services

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Santander launches a 2% deposit mortgage for first-time buyers – Which

Some lenders are quietly hiking mortgage rates… – This Is Money

…so here’s how to get the best deal if you’re remortgaging – Guardian

Get up to £3,000 cashback when you open or switch to an Interactive Investor SIPP. Terms and fees apply, affiliate link – Interactive Investor

This YBS Christmas savings account pays a bumper 5% – This Is Money

Co-operative Bank switch offer: £100 + £75 – Be Clever With Your Cash

How fixing your energy bill can save you money – This Is Money

Get up to £1,500 cashback when you transfer your cash and/or investments to Charles Stanley Direct through this affiliate link. Terms apply – Charles Stanley

Buy-to-let mortgage rates are falling – Which

How to save at the cinema every week – Be Clever With Your Cash

The risks of buying holiday caravans and lodges – This Is Money

Flats for sale with outside space, in pictures – Guardian

Student loans mini-special

Rachel Reeves clashes with Martin Lewis over student loans system – BBC

Britain’s inequitable student loans [Paywall] – FT

The government should address ‘unjust’ situation – This Is Money

Bad and getting worse: for students, the system is a disaster – Guardian

Comment and opinion

How happy do you need to be to be happy with money? – The Root of All

Should you wait to claim your state pension? – Which

How to make your wealth and health anti-fragile – A Teachable Moment

What’s wrong with flats? 40% of owners are selling at a loss – This Is Money

Everything costs more because of the algorithm [Canadian but relevant] – Walrus

Is inflation higher than we think? – Of Dollars and Data

What we do when things go up (a lot) – Behavioural Investment

When it comes to retirement, fear is an invitation – The Purpose Code

A framework for understanding market (in)efficiency [PDF] – Morgan Stanley

Naughty corner: Active antics

The UK stock market has buyback fever – Schroders [h/t Snippet]

Older people consumer differently – Klement on Investing

What comes after the AI bubble could be electrifying – Tker

Investment intensity and long-term stock returns [Research] – SSRN

Kindle book bargains

The Wealth Ladder by Nick Maggiulli – £0.99 on Kindle

How to Work Without Losing Your Mind by Cate Sevilla – £0.99 on Kindle

Million Dollar Weekend by Noah Kagan – £0.99 on Kindle

The Retirement Handbook by Ted Heybridge – £0.99 on Kindle

Or pick up one of the all-time great investing classics – Monevator shop

Environmental factors

Peak oil is coming – Unchartered Territories

Flawed economic models mean climate crisis could crash economy – Guardian

Disease outbreaks in China’s fur farms threaten global health – Knowable

A UK climate report backed by the intelligence services was quietly buried – The Conversation

Vast seagrass meadows could shield the British coastline – BBC

Climate change threatens the Winter Olympics – The Conversation

Living with meat: humanity’s favourite food – Guardian

Robot overlord roundup

New site lets AI agents rent out human bodies – Futurism

Your phone edits your photos with AI. Is it distorting reality? – BBC

The music industry’s cautious embrace of AI – FT [h/t Abnormal Returns]

Pinterest sacks engineers for tracking AI-related job cuts – BBC

AI’s apocalyptic job prophecy is about to become reality [Paywall] – Telegraph

Grok AI undressing controversy mini-special

Inside Musk’s bet to turn Grok into a porn generator – Washington Post via MSN

Peak deepfake – Panoptica

Condemnation of chatbot reached ‘tipping point’ after French raid – Guardian

Not at the dinner table

It’s tragic a decent PM will be brought down by Mandelson’s sleaze – Guardian

Trump blames Canada – Public Notice

The ‘democratic recession’ is global – Guardian

Trump: Republicans should ‘take over the voting’ and ‘nationalise’ elections – BBC

Profiles in cowardice, tariffs edition – Paul Krugman

Where do billionaires come from? [Research] – SSRN

Off our beat

Japanese cherry blossom festival cancelled because of tourists – Guardian

How to use boredom as a performance enhancer – Two Percent

Many Victorian cities grew tenfold in a century – Works in Progress

India’s snakebite crisis is killing tens of thousands a year – BBC

Kenyan job seekers were lured to Russia, then died in Ukraine – W.P. via MSN

[I endorse] the case for A Knight of The Seven Kingdoms – Guardian

Spurious correlations – Kottke

And finally…

“He commuted to his Canadian office in a Ferrari, though sometimes snowy conditions forced him to use a Bentley.”
– Sebastian Mallaby, More Money Than God

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