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Weekend reading: It’s the final Budget countdown

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What caught my eye this week.

Just 26 sleeps to go until the new government’s first Budget on Wednesday 30 October. And I cannot recall there ever being so much pre-match jitters.

I could have filled the links below with forecasts, evasive action tips, and threats to emigrate. Hardly what anyone would call a honeymoon period, let alone the good vibes of Tony Blair’s 1997 win.

Even those who didn’t vote for Blair admitted the national mood music went up a level overnight. This time the change has been more like somebody coming in, turning the music off and the lights on, and telling everyone to sod off home.

And I say that as someone who has more sympathy than most with the view that the State’s finances are atypically feeble.

There have been worse economic periods, for sure. Seldom did they unfold though while so many in power gaslighted us with tall tales about how great things were – and millions believed them.

(In short: where did you spend your ‘Brexit dividend’, eh?)

Black rod

With that said, Labour made a rod for its own back by waiting so long to hold the Budget.

It’s like sitting outside the headmasters’ office all day before you’re seen. Almost as bad as the punishment!

For my part I haven’t much to add beyond what I wrote in my articles on the potential capital gains tax (CGT) hike and whether CGT fears could be presenting us with opportunities.

Monevator readers added tons of value in the comments to both articles, incidentally. Go read them if you haven’t.

I would also note that in less than four week’s time the picture will be clear.

ISAs

If you plan to fill your ISA, I say get on with it ASAP. It’s hard to see a downside, given the risk of a cut to the annual allowance.

In practice I suspect any new ISA rules would begin from April next year. Still, why risk it?

However I certainly wouldn’t take out ISA money fearing withdrawals could be taxed in the future. I wouldn’t risk shrinking my ISA tax shield on the very unlikely odds of retrospective taxation.

(Exception: if you have a flexible ISA and if you can definitely put the money back in post-Budget Day if required, different story…)

Pensions

Pensions are trickier. There are reports of people cashing in their tax-free lump sums now or maximising their contributions, in case the rules change.

Yet the former might not be tax optimal for you if nothing changes (depending on wildly varying personal circumstances) while if you’re stretching yourself to load up your pension, you could face other day-to-day spending difficulties. Remember, pension money is locked away for the long-term.

This is not to go into the myriad edge cases that dance around on the threshold of pension drawdown and the like. Take care whatever you do.

Calm before the storm-let

Finally beware of excessive panic due to someone else’s political agenda.

The right-wing papers are having a field day – and worries around pensions and the like are a pre-Budget staple anyway.

But usually not too much happens in practice.

Personally I do expect some things to change but not everything. And I’m not going to do anything hugely radical on the back of that.

Have a great weekend.

From Monevator

The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q3 2024 – Monevator

From the archive-ator: Fixing your financial posture – Monevator

News

Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view click through to read the article. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing to sites you visit a lot.

Huge shift in interest rate predictions as BoE chief says cuts could be more ‘aggressive’ – Sky

The US added 250,000 jobs in September, defying fears of a slowdown… – Guardian

…but UK economic growth was slower than thought in spring – BBC

New HMRC figures show £1.4bn sits unclaimed in Child Trust Funds – Which

Reeves urged to end panic over pension tax raid… – Telegraph via Yahoo Finance

…while chancellor vows to “Invest, invest, invest” [Search result]FT

OpenAI raises $6.6bn in largest venture capital round ever – Axios

Record quarterly global ETF flows just topped half a trillion dollars – FT

England urged to bring in minimum price on alcohol – Guardian

The listed companies still adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet – BlockWorks

The Chinese market has suddenly gone vertical – Axios

Products and services

Five big banks cut their mortgage rates – This Is Money

Lloyds Bank offering a £200 switching bonus – Which

Get £100-£2,000 cashback when you open a SIPP with Interactive Investor (T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – Interactive Investor

How to get a mortgage if you’re self-employed – This Is Money

Supermarket Christmas delivery slots – Be Clever With Your Cash

Nearly one in three who check their credit report find mistakes – Which

Open an account with low-cost platform InvestEngine via our link and get up to £50 when you invest at least £100 (T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – InvestEngine

eBay scraps fees for most sellers – This Is Money

How to get a free will this month – Which

Homes for sale close to British woodland, in pictures – Guardian

Comment and opinion

Single people feel penalised on prices – Guardian

Bill Bengen: 4% and beyond! [Podcast] Humans vs Retirement

Perfection versus greatness – Root of All

The S&P 500 is having its best year of the 21st Century so far – Sherwood

As withdrawals surge, five questions to ask before accessing your pension – Which

Retiring smarter – Humble Dollar

Does the bucket approach to retirement income work in practice? – Morningstar

Once again: imports do not subtract from GDP – Noahpinion

Artificial advisor mini-special

Can A.I. turn you into Warren Buffett? – The Hungarian Contrarian

Your next financial advisor will be on an app – Bloomberg via W.M.

Naughty corner: Active antics

New titans of Wall Street: How trading firms stole a march on big banks [Search result]FT

The beginning’s of a private equity ‘super-cycle’? [PDF]Dawson

How Manchester United loses money – Sherwood

Even enemies of the US hold dollar reserves – Klement on Investing

A majority of US active bond managers beat the market – II

Kindle book bargains

Failed State: Why Nothing Works and How to Fix It by Sam Freedman – £0.99 on Kindle

Technofeudalism: What Killed Capitalism by Yanis Varoufakis – £0.99 on Kindle

Bad Blood: Elizabeth Holmes and the Theranos Scandal by John Carreyrou – £0.99 on Kindle

Casino: The Rise and Fall of the Mob in Las Vegas by Nicholas Pileggi – £0.99 on Kindle

Environmental factors

Solar boom in China turns energy prices negative – Semafor

UK to finish with coal power after 142 years – BBC

The poachers who could save Mexico’s mini-porpoises – Hakai

Robot overlord roundup

Ray Ozzie on the future of intelligent machines [Podcast]I.L.T.B.

Chatbots might ease the loneliness epidemic – Freethink

A.I. put my dad out of a job and I’m worried – Financial Samurai

A day in the life of a food delivery robot – Sherwood

The Contentapocalypse is coming – Epsilon Theory

The US dockers strike is a microcosm of Us vs The Machines – Kyla Scanlon

How the steam engine can help us make sense of AI – Morningstar

Off our beat

Even Americans think their anachronistic democracy needs reform – Pew Research

Can liberals be trusted with liberalism? [Search result]FT

The Gambler’s (non) Fallacy – The Leap

How bad is inflammation, really? – Vox

Evidence of ‘negative time’ found in physics experiment – Scientifica American

What Wall Street’s pioneering women put up with – WSJ [h/t Abnormal Returns]

Living in a material world [Podcast]A Long Time in Finance

A brief history of Lebanon – Uncharted Territories

Growth means choosing a different kind of pain – Raptitude

And finally…

“If he had learned anything from his parents, he learned that business was a matter of relationships.”
– T.J. Stiles, The First Tycoon: The Epic Life of Cornelius Vanderbilt

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{ 33 comments… add one }
  • 1 helfordpirate October 5, 2024, 2:17 pm

    I may be wrong but don’t think this is how the ‘bed & breakfast’ rule for CGT works! The sale is a disposal with respect to CGT regardless – the issue is what is the acquisition cost. The shares sold are first matched with any shares bought on the same day, then with shares bought in the next 30 days (the B&B rule) and then with your past holdings. So if the shares/fund have moved in price in the 30 days you may still have a gain or loss. However, broadly the tactic you suggest is likely to work to some extent unless there is a large price movement.
    See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/shares-and-capital-gains-tax-hs284-self-assessment-helpsheet/hs284-shares-and-capital-gains-tax-2021
    For the record I have been disposing of gains up to my basic band allowance and taken the 10% CGT hit.

  • 2 The Investor October 5, 2024, 2:20 pm

    @helfordpirate — Ah, now you’ve said that I do seem to recall the prices are rejigged. I’ll edit the copy before I send the email — thanks!

    Update: I’ve removed the whole section and need to think on it some more. It does seem unlikely that I’ve stumbled upon a viable mitigation (/holding) strategy that I’ve not seen mentioned elsewhere. For anyone interested, I was musing about disposing of CGT liable assets in the 30 day window and then repurchasing if nothing changes in the Budget. As @Helfordpirate has very helpfully flagged (before I sent the email version out — thanks!) there are complications with this. Would be interested in anyone’s thoughts though 🙂

  • 3 Boltt October 5, 2024, 2:30 pm

    Re Single supplement whingers

    Anyone else lacking in empathy for those saying it’s not fair (to be single)?

    I have to:

    Share a bed (never 50:50, but does come with perks!)
    Share a bathroom (well en suite for me)
    Compromise on tv programs/music
    Live with less sq ft per body
    Car share
    Compromise and be more tolerant
    Tidy others mess (perhaps 45:55 no perks)

    It’s quite simple to take advantage of BOGOF offers – take a friend and bill share.

    While I’m moaning there’s still 20m free bedrooms – hopefully the budget (or labour) will do something to improve the allocation and friction issues.

    Final comment – my daughter has 800 sq ft 3 bed semi. 2 adult kids, 2 smaller kids, 2 parents, one bathroom. 133 sq ft pp – did I mention the huge dog and cat, make that 100 sq ft per body.

    Singles always have the option to share/couple up, moving in the other direction is expensive for other reasons….

  • 4 xxd09 October 5, 2024, 3:12 pm

    Re Brexit dividend ….
    OECD seems rather pleased with U.K. performance-“robust” -only the US ahead inevitably-albeit the US holds to similar business model to the U.K. -that pesky Anglo “ free trade” attitude!
    Across the Channel however in contrast rather a lot of doom and gloom-politically going right and economically stagnating-Draghi was particularly down with his latest economic prognosis
    Protectionism (and over regulation) – default European economic policies causing problems
    But who knows what will happen tomorrow!
    Re budget-staying the course and sitting tight -a sound investment policy?!
    xxd09

  • 5 Paul_a38 October 5, 2024, 3:12 pm

    I used the capital loss on a holding to allow me to sell another stock which had a substantial gain. With the combined sales proceeds I bought a fund equivalent to the loss making one I had sold (strategic bond). Equivalent but different. My understanding of the bed and breakfast rule is to preclude buying back the original loss making stock as part of this sort of transaction.

  • 6 helfordpirate October 5, 2024, 3:23 pm

    @TheInvestor
    Assuming that you are selling passive trackers I think you can get the effect you were looking for using equivalent trackers from another vendor.
    e.g.
    Sell Vanguard X tracker and buy iShares X tracker.
    IF Rachel jacks up CGT
    THEN feel smug, you have crystalised a gain in the old CGT regime.
    ELSE (within 30 days)
    Sell iShares X tracker (gain or loss depending on index X)
    Buy back Vanguard X tracker (loss or gain depending on index X)

    The loss and gain will cancel each other out and you are back where you started – less spreads and transaction costs.

    I think!
    Not for me though!
    Probably a way using your spouse also and of course CFD & Options….

  • 7 Al Cam October 5, 2024, 3:45 pm

    @TI:
    Re: “If you plan to fill your ISA, I say get on with it ASAP. It’s hard to see a downside, given the risk of a cut to the annual allowance.”

    That is what I thought – well until last Saturday anyway. Out of the blue, I received a ‘good news’ letter that day. Said letter informed me that my DB pension was to be increased back to my date of commencement – some eighteen months ago. I also received in the same post another letter confirming my annual income drawdown (I/D) amount, carefully calculated such that I could use the net I/D cash to help fill my ISA and still just remain within the basic rate tax band. Without further action, the DB ‘good news’ would have pushed me into HRT.
    I certainly did not see that one coming!

    FWIW, I still agree with your JFDI suggestion re ISA’s.

  • 8 B. Lackdown October 5, 2024, 3:50 pm

    Here’s what Google’s AI told me when I asked for the date of the next VUKE dividend

    The next dividend date for Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (VUKE.L) is projected to be 11.69% from September 24, 2023 to September 24, 2024.

    I think it fair to say I will not be taking advice from an AI app in the foreseeable.

    The hype is off the scale unjustified, this stuff is worse than useless even after billions of dollars of development. I know market timing is naughty but we must be within months of an emperor’s new clothes crash?

  • 9 Bally001 October 5, 2024, 3:55 pm

    Xxd09

    Shss- don’t mention this too loudly. The TI is so blinkered in his views on Brexit that any good news is , in his eyes, probably the result of alien activity. No other reasonable explanation

  • 10 The Investor October 5, 2024, 4:21 pm

    @xxd09 — You write: “Re Brexit dividend …. OECD seems rather pleased with U.K. performance-“robust” -only the US ahead inevitably-albeit the US holds to similar business model to the U.K. -that pesky Anglo “ free trade” attitude!”

    This is not a Brexit dividend.

    As discussed here and elsewhere, the UK grew GDP per capita faster than other members during the entire time from joining leading up to the Brexit vote. (102% UK versus 99% Germany and 74% France).

    Being in the EU worked great for us, economically-speaking. To the extent we’re still doing okay outside of it (and one quarter here or there is irrelevant) that’s not a dividend, it’s business as usual.

    Claims that it held us back (economically) were economically illiterate.

    Source: https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/brexit

  • 11 The Investor October 5, 2024, 4:24 pm

    @helfordpirate — Thanks, that is the crucial tweak in there (switching to another holding share) as I read the rules now too. Would like to hear other views though!

    Of course as you say there’s also transaction costs. Not very meaningful for a tracker but a different story if you were say trying to manage around a portfolio of illiquid AIM stocks…

  • 12 The Investor October 5, 2024, 4:32 pm

    @Al Cam — Close shave! Yes, as I hope the copy is clear I’m only saying crack on with filling ISAs if you can and plan to. Pensions are more complicated and need a lot more thought.

    @Bally001 — Here’s a bit of alternative reading for you, if you can put the Telegraph down for a minute:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-off-uk-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-says.html

    Goldman Sachs as of February 2024 has Brexit hitting us to the tune of 5% of GDP. I don’t really think those US-based Masters of Universe have a dog in the fight 😉

    In as much as there are ‘aliens’ queering the pitch then I’d look to Russia invading Ukraine, which has surely had a bigger impact on Germany in particular than us. And the China slowdown of course, due to the likes of Germany being better at exporting heavy goods than us.

    But as I say I don’t think a year or two is what’s important.

    Being outside the EU will make us poorer absent enormous economic and social change (Singapore-ism) which we have singularly failed to implement, not least because most Leave voters didn’t want it either.

    This was predicted and it’s happening.

    As always if you voted for Brexit for some other reason (lower immigration? Oops! Better political leadership? Double oops! You like queuing at the borders to collect stamps? You can have that one…) then fair enough. But there isn’t an economic argument for the UK to have done it.

    Probably enough Brexit for one week I’d suggest, both sides have had their say and it was one throwaway line in the post.

    Cheers!

  • 13 Silent Knight October 5, 2024, 6:02 pm

    Could you explain why @helfordpirate’s plan works in CGT terms but @TheInvestor’s original suggestion didn’t? If you replace “iShares X Tracker” with “savings account” and add a second “THEN” step of “On day 32, buy back Vanguard X tracker”, isn’t that what TI effectively suggested?

    I understand TI would potentially be out of the market for 32 days, and helfordpirate avoids that, but I thought the objection was CGT-related.

  • 14 ermine October 5, 2024, 6:47 pm

    @B Lackdown #8 > The hype is off the scale unjustified, this stuff is worse than useless even after billions of dollars of development.

    In subjects I know about I’ve generally found AI worse than it used to be reading something on a subject I knew in the papers – journalists skim-read stuff and make enough mistakes but AI takes “not even wrong” to a much higher level.

    What AI is terrific at is generating information spam that is polluting the web to an extent SEO never managed. It’s crossed the 50:50 noise:signal mark on search, and perplexity scores about 1 great win in about 20 misses. It lies with a talent unmatched by humans, though it has the same problem of not keeping its story straight.

    Natural language AI functionality sucks at the mo. AI may e terrific in some cases, but you’ll probably have to program it to some extent. I also feel a dot com moment is needed to take some of this garbage down.

  • 15 Al Cam October 5, 2024, 7:08 pm

    @TI (#12):
    I usually do my ISA filling, etc towards the end of the tax year – but I brought things forward this year for exactly the reasons you gave. And whilst I accepted this may not be without some risk – I was totally unsighted as to what has transpired thus far. I think I am going to be OK now, but will be keeping a close eye all the way until April. Unsurprisingly, my plan is to return to business as usual (re filling an ISA – assuming they still exist, etc) next year!
    Sometimes it just might not pay off trying to be clever; and you certainly have to be prepared to live & learn!

  • 16 ermine October 5, 2024, 10:01 pm

    @AlCam #14 > I usually do my ISA filling, etc towards the end of the tax year

    I’m sure I’ve read some philosophy that you should do it at the start of the TY, time in the market etc. The chart of the outperformance seems to be of the order of 5-8% over a 12 month scenario.

    Inveterate fiddler that I am I usually do half at the start of the TY and then a string of hits through the rest of the year, doing more if I can buy at less that the original price. I’m not claiming any edge for that method, it just makes me feel better. I am usually done by December.

  • 17 Al Cam October 5, 2024, 11:33 pm

    @ermine (#15):

    My income tax position is usually not very clear until near the end of the tax year*. This year, unusually, my income tax situation was seemingly pretty clear just before the middle of the [tax] year. Having decided to exploit this anomaly and bring things forward (such that they would complete before “Rachael Thieves” first budget) completely out of the blue, I was hit by the curved ball (aka my DB ‘good news’). Such is life!

    So wrt timings, IMO it is a case of horses for courses; although I suspect in a lot of (most?) cases: earliest is best for the reasons you give.
    Multiple hits could also work, but may increase costs. Prior to starting my DB (which is paid monthly) I effectively did one d/down per year – but it is pretty clear that other folks prefer to d/down smaller amounts much more frequently.

    *IIRC, you had a not dis-similar situation when you were doing sporadic episodes of paid work and also drawing down your erstwhile DC?

  • 18 Matt October 6, 2024, 9:09 am

    I spent my Brexit dividend (I work in export manufacturing and we did VERY well) on a car. A made in Coventry Jaguar, naturally.

  • 19 Alternator October 6, 2024, 9:16 am

    @TheInvestor @helfordpirate
    Helpful comments from @helfordpirate, thanks. For some additional reassurance on the legitimacy of potentially using the 30-day rule to your advantage, see this article from the abrdn techzone website:
    “Inadvertent disposals. Occasionally an inadvertent disposal can result in gain which was unexpected. The share matching rules can come to the rescue if action is taken quickly and the same shares are repurchased within 30 days.”

    https://techzone.abrdn.com/public/personal-taxation/Practical-G-Share-match

  • 20 ZXSpectrum48k October 6, 2024, 10:10 am

    Reeves can generate more fiscal headroom simply by changing the metric by which debt is measured. Since 2021, we’ve measured public sector net debt excluding Bank of England. That change was made to include losses the BoE is going to make through its QT operations.

    Simply revert that back to the prior metric and, hey presto, Reeves has £16bn more to play with. Rather more useful than the theoretical £5b revenue increase from CGT changes that might actually generate a £3bn loss. Seems the Tory non-dom tax changes are actually going to create a revenue loss and the private school VAT move is probably going to be delayed and generate less than predicted.

    Yes, it’s an accounting swerve, but it was not actually very sensible to change the rules in the first place to account for a specific BoE operation. It will generate some negative comment but the market is now expecting this maneuver (and it’s been built into long-end Gilt yields).

    They can follow that up by starting to whisper to the market about changing the “persnuffle” (public sector net financial liabilities, PSNFL) back to public sector net debt, PSND. Another £50bn windfall for following years. Just have to get the Gilt market prepared for that one, so not for this year.

  • 21 platformer October 6, 2024, 10:53 am

    @B. Lackdown #8 I can’t recreate your answer with the prompt “What date is the next VUKE dividend?” in any the main AI agents. I generally find Perplexity to be best and it was no different here with the answer below.

    —-
    The next VUKE (Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF) dividend is expected to be declared on December 5, 2024. This will be the Q4 2024 dividend for the fund.

    Based on the available information, here are the key dates for the upcoming VUKE dividend:
    Declaration Date: December 5, 2024 (expected)
    Ex-Dividend Date: December 14, 2024 (estimated, as it’s typically about a week after declaration)
    Payment Date: December 27, 2024 (estimated, as it’s usually about two weeks after the ex-dividend date)

    It’s important to note that these dates are projections based on the fund’s historical dividend schedule. The exact dates may be subject to change once officially announced by Vanguard.

    VUKE pays dividends quarterly, with a current dividend yield of approximately 3.73%. The most recent dividend payment was £0.338036 per share, with an ex-dividend date of September 12, 2024, and a payment date of September 25, 2024

  • 22 Grumpy Old Paul October 6, 2024, 3:59 pm

    @Ermine #14
    Gell-Mann Amnesia. I’ve switched off AI from Google search.

  • 23 ermine October 6, 2024, 8:34 pm

    @AlCam #17
    > you had a not dis-similar situation when you were doing sporadic episodes of paid work and also drawing down your erstwhile DC?

    I was more specifically thinking of contributing to the ISA. My specification on drawing down my DC SIPP was to not pay tax on it so I typically did a 1k drawdown early in the TY, to warm up the vacuum tubes in HMRC’s ‘puter that there be a mustelid here and any resemblance to Croesus was purely incidental. 12*1k was not above the personal allowance, so they swap the emergency tax to normal.

    Then a month just before the TYend to take out the rest, allowing for any money I had earned wile I still did such a dastardly thing.

    That did, of course, mean some years I didn’t fill the ISA in the first half until I knew where I stood, though I always managed to fill it in the end.

    > but may increase costs

    I’m not a high-frequency trader, Vanguard’s daily roll-up works well enough for me. It’s not apparent to me that it increases costs there, though I could be missing something.

    @Grumpy Old Paul #22
    > Gell-Mann Amnesia

    Haha, my bad 😉 I was unaware you could switch off AI from Google Search. I wonder if I will get a ‘Dave I can’t do that’ if I google it.

  • 24 BillD October 7, 2024, 2:15 am

    If you ask Google AI “what is the smallest cathedral in England” it comes back with “Newport Cathedral in Wales is the smallest cathedral in England”. It knows no boundaries!

  • 25 Mike October 7, 2024, 11:06 am

    Hi @TheInvestor @helfordpirate, hopefully I can clear this one up (I do personal tax for a living). Basically @helfordpirate was correct in his reading of the rules – there is no way for transactions to become “self-cancelling” by repurchasing within 30 days, all the same day and 30 day matching rules do is determine what purchase price your sale gets matched to. So if you wanted to hedge the CGT rate increase risk, because your historic cost per share is £1 and it is now trading at £3 per share, you could sell before 30 Oct with a view to buying back within 30 days if CGT rates do not increase. In that case your sale at £3 would be matched to your new purchase cost. Say the shares were £3.10 by the time you bought them back, you would have generated a capital loss, and vice versa if you bought them back slightly cheaper than your sale price. The obvious problem with this is the market risk you take by not owning the share in the intervening period (perhaps tax rates do not change and that makes people more optimistic so the price goes back up before you get to buy back in). That is where strategies like buying a different share with the same or v similar exposure come in (like the iShares vs Vanguard fund mentioned above), that removes the market risk but with a little bit of transaction costs – probably very manageable if you are using a decent broker and trading in liquid shares – much more problematic if the shares standing at a gain are illiquid shares with a large spread!

  • 26 Faustus October 8, 2024, 12:11 pm

    I see the media is now reporting that Reeves will not attempt to reduce pension tax relief in this Budget. Thank goodness some sense has prevailed in the Treasury. Double taxation on pensions was a terrible idea, promoted mainly by the financially ignorant and various left-wing ‘think tanks’ who never saw a tax opportunity they didn’t like. Apart from being a nightmare for HMRC to administer, it would have hit many millions of middle earners (especially on DB pensions) with substantial tax bills and made pension saving even less attractive, resulting in various unintended negative consequences. There are far better ways for Reeves to improve the public accounts, some of which are proposed above.

  • 27 Boltt October 8, 2024, 1:08 pm

    @ Faustus

    I have a lot of sympathy for a flat ~30% pension contribution tax relief for all.

    A 20% tax payers pay 15% on the way out (80p become £1, 25% PCLS then 20% income tax as state pension is so high) so 85p on exit.

    Most 40% tax payers are 20% tax payers in retirement- so their 60p become £1, then 85p in pension receipts

    It would be better if we all got the same uplift in out post tax pension savings.

    The flat relief would also make excessive pension contributions pointless- who could want 30% tax relief and then pay 40% on the way out.

  • 28 Naeclue October 8, 2024, 1:09 pm

    There has been some talk about charging employers Class 1A NI on pension contributions. In some respects it seems strange that NI is not charged already as pension contributions are clearly an employee benefit. NI is not charged on pension income either, unlike income tax, so ends up being lost (gained by the employee).

    I have no idea how much the measure would raise, but it would also be a substantial cost to the public sector.

  • 29 DavidV October 8, 2024, 4:25 pm

    @Boltt (27)
    >”Most 40% tax payers are 20% tax payers in retirement”
    This may have been the case historically, but fiscal drag has the potential to change the numbers considerably. The vast bulk of my pension contributions received only basic rate tax relief. It was only in the last few years of my career that my contributions prevented me from otherwise being a higher rate taxpayer.
    Now, seven years into retirement, the freezing of tax thresholds, coupled with high interest rates and high inflation with consequential DB and SP increases, have brought me incredibly close to being a HR taxpayer. This year it will only be Gift Aid on my charity contributions that will keep me below the threshold.

  • 30 Boltt October 8, 2024, 4:49 pm

    @DavidV

    I will need to take some actions to avoid HRT when my DB starts in ~ 5 years.

    But we are the lucky ones, the top perhaps 5-10% (although I’ve seen a figure of 20% which I don’t believe).

    To have earnings of £50k more or less means you are worth a £1m – excluding your primary residence. We shouldn’t be too concerned about millionaires – we are the relative winners. Median full time Uk earnings are still under £35k.

    Whilst talking of relative winners – isn’t it a bit generous than we only pay £7.5k tax on the £50k. Workers would pay 21% (£3k Ni). Perhaps NI should be paid on pensions if we can’t face capping tax relief duty to public sector workers being upset.

    PS it’s impressive to be borderline HRT payer as a pensioner and not for most of your career.

  • 31 DavidV October 8, 2024, 9:34 pm

    @Boltt (30)
    I appreciate my good fortune and I suspect that the Chancellor will find ways to dampen it at the end of the month.

    >”PS it’s impressive to be borderline HRT payer as a pensioner and not for most of your career.”
    In fairness, if I only had my pension income I would not be worrying about HRT yet, although I could well be before thresholds are eventually raised once again. However, I also have PCLS from my DB pension’s AVC and from a Section 32 scheme, as well as a modest inheritance. This is taking a good few years to shelter in my ISA. In the meantime, the recent high interest rates on cash savings have pushed me closer to the HRT threshold. I have started taking mitigating action, viz. investing in low-coupon gilts. The reduced dividend allowance also puts me closer to paying HRT on dividends, as this represents the top slice of income.

  • 32 Boltt October 9, 2024, 4:51 pm

    Monevator got a mention on the latest Merryn talks Money podcast

  • 33 The Investor October 9, 2024, 7:30 pm

    @Boltt — Indeed but thanks so much for alerting us as I definitely don’t catch all these things. 🙂 Gave John a cheers on X:

    https://x.com/Monevator/status/1843718475606536572

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