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World stock markets: How historic returns have varied by country

World stock market returns data shows big variations between countries.

Deciding you should invest outside of the UK but then electing to put all your money in China is a case of out of the frying pan and into the wok.

It doesn’t spread your risk, and it exposes you to the biggest fear that most of us have when we make an investment, which is the potential for an all-out loss.

Studies have shown that as a species we prefer two birds in the hand to a potential five in the bush – if they come at the risk of a dead parrot.

In other words, we’re more averse to loss than we’re greedy for gains.

And that’s important in the context of overseas investing, because some countries have done far better or (more scarily) far worse over the long-term.

Long-term returns from different countries’ stock markets

 Annualised real return:
GBP (UK pounds)
Growth of £1 since 1900
Australia6.4%2,134
Belgium3%38
Canada5.2%520
Denmark6.8%3,388
Finland4.9%375
France-0.1%0.87
Germany3.5%74
Italy1.7%8
Japan3.6%80
Netherlands5.5%742
Norway3.9%118
Portugal-0.2%0.81
Spain3.8%101
Sweden5.8%1,069
Switzerland5.7%968
U.K.4.8%341
U.S.A.6.9%3,703
World6%1,344

Data from JST Macrohistory1, The Big Bang2, MSCI, Russell/Nomura Japan Index, Aswath Damodaran and FTSE Russell. August 2024.

Small differences in returns matter

This cumulative real return data for each country was a real eye-opener for me the first time I saw it.

It’s a reminder that seemingly small differences have a major impact when it comes to compound interest.

In terms of annual return, the difference between investing in shares in the U.K. versus the U.S. doesn’t look like that much:

  • Averaged over the past 124 years, the annualised real return from equities3 for a British investor is 4.8%.
  • Over the same period, U.S. investors enjoyed a slightly higher annualised return of 6.9%.

What’s 2.1% between two countries divided by a common language, you say?

Well, over the long-term such small differences really do add up:

  • A U.K. investor who reinvested all her dividends since 1900 would have multiplied her portfolio 341 times over.
  • A similar US portfolio would have multiplied 3,703 times!

And these are two countries where returns have historically been in the same ballpark.

World stock markets’ cautionary tales

In contrast to those happy Brits and Yanks, an extremely proud French investor who put all their money in France’s lower-returning equities would actually have lost money.

The magic of compound interest turned out to be a cheap party trick in their case. Instead of our French Rip Van Winkle (and a bit) waking up to a snowball of money, they would discover their original stake had shrank 13% (even with dividends reinvested!)

And it’s not as if France is Russia. There was no Communist Revolution to explain away the failure of ‘stocks for the long run’ here.

It wasn’t even due to the devastation inflicted by two World Wars.

Rather, a post-war bear market fed by industrial nationalisation, high inflation, and currency depreciation did the real damage.

The recovery began in 1983 and since then France has enjoyed excellent stock market returns. So there’s no reason to believe the French market is intrinsically radioactive.

The key lesson is that when old hands warn that investing is risky, they mean it.

Sometimes, in some places, those risks can overwhelm every comforting shibboleth we investors like to cling to: mean reversion, compound interest, and investing for the long-term. All of it.

Countrycide

No one lives to 124 (yet) and none of our most elderly were wizened old investors. So some people might say that looking at returns over such a very long period is misleading.

I disagree – provided you’re not using the data for more than what’s reasonable.

As a way of seeing how different countries have produced very different long-term returns, it’s perfectly useful.

But the data shouldn’t be used as a basis for cherry-picking one country over another when deciding how to allocate your money for the future.

Rather, it reinforces the case for diversifying very widely using global tracker funds – because every tale of success and woe is different.

Not one world stock market (yet)

Why has Denmark pulled away from Sweden and Norway?

For that matter, why are its returns only a hair’s breadth behind superpower USA – winner of the 20th Century?

It’s not like Denmark qualified as an Anglophone, New World, emerging market in 1900.

Yet those are the explanations used to explain the success of the US and Australia – even though Canada’s performance is only fair to middling.

What’s more, Denmark’s stock market has been on fire the past 20 years whereas the UK’s has been moribund. Consequently Britain has slipped into the bottom half of the table, after decades as one of the leading lights.

And while it’s true that losing a World War is bad news, Japan and Germany got to much the same result by quite different routes.

For example, German society was devastated twice in the 20th Century, while Japan’s spectacular stock market recovery was famously derailed by a contemporary bursting asset bubble and three decades of secular stagnation.

Correlation is not destination

Some would argue that world stock markets are now too closely correlated for this historic data to be of much interest.

I say: not so fast!

We are still seeing some highly divergent outcomes. Take Denmark versus the UK over the past decade:

  • Denmark = 13.9% real annualised return (GBP)
  • UK = 2.3% real annualised return

Those are two highly correlated markets but, even though they normally head in the same direction, correlation tells us nothing about the amplitude of their individual performances.

Correlation is useful in helping us to identify complementary asset classes, but it doesn’t tell us that all equities are interchangeable.

Lessons from history

In Fooled by Randomness, author and Black Swan-spotter Nassim Taleb points out that an investor in Russian or Chinese companies at the start of the 20th Century who suffered a complete wipeout would tell a rather different tale about ‘investing for the long term’ than the Americans who write all the investing books.

Who is to say that the 21st Century won’t hold similar surprises?

It’s easy to believe the fate of Imperial Russia or China has little application for modern citizens of the rich world.

But just look at France again. That was a society as advanced as any on the planet, yet deliberate government policy choices ruined its stock market. The same could happen anywhere, even in the US.

Spreading your money across world stock markets remains a good idea to reduce the risk of being 100% in an all-out lemon for 40 years, as well as for the more general diversification benefits.

Note: This article on world stock markets has been updated. Comments may refer to previous data, but in most cases they are still relevant and interesting. Especially mine.

  1. Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2019. “The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3), 1225-1298. []
  2. Dmitry Kuvshinov and Kaspar Zimmermann. 2021. The
    Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run. Journal of Financial Economics,
    Forthcoming. []
  3. The real return is the return after inflation has been taken into account. []
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Weekend reading: tracking your trackers

Our Weekend Reading logo

What caught my eye this week.

Long-time readers may recall that my investing life is ruled by an enormous multi-sheeted monster of a Google Spreadsheet.

This spreadsheet doesn’t just track my actively-managed portfolio and its returns.

It also keeps tabs on everything from my private investments to the cashflows that enable me to unitise my returns and so keep score versus the professionals.

My spreadsheet also surfaces interesting data and charts, such as where I’m geographically exposed and what proportion of my wealth is tax-sheltered and how.

There’s even an implied sustainable withdrawal rate sheet with various scenarios.

Needless to say, this spreadsheet also tells me my up-to-the-second net worth. (For good or ill).

Naturally this value includes the asset that is my house, as well as the liability of my mortgage.

But because I have various windows onto my financial status, I can see figures with or without the house/mortgage. (And the same for my pension).

Such distinctions help because, for instance, your personal home is an extremely important asset that should be factored in when you consider your net worth and financial posture – but for most of us it can crowd out insights into how your ‘true investing’ portfolio is structured.

For example, if you have 5% in a REIT and 45% of your net worth in your home, then you have 50% property exposure. Sometimes it’s useful to think that way. More often not so much.

I even have a ‘liquid/illiquid’ view that groups my pension (for now) and my private investments together as being functionally inaccessible.

This is handy to see what I could get at as cash if I had to cut and run. (The hopefully very unlikely Plan B aka bugout scenario…)

I did it my way

Some masochistic readers have asked me to share this sheet – or at least the template – as we do our mortgage repayment-or-invest calculator.

But I’m not sure that’s the best idea. Mostly because I created this sheet to fit my personality and goals over the years.

I’m weird, and yours will be different.

Case in point: when I open it up, the first two sheets of my spreadsheet are watchlists – a fairly futile attempt to stop me focussing on the noisy movements of what I do own, and instead pay attention to the potential of what I don’t own.

At times I’ve even buried all my return data in a separate sheet at the end of a long line others, though that’s not my current set-up.

Again: an attempt to force better behaviour through structure.

Creating and evolving your own spreadsheet like this will teach you things about how you invest, too. And that’s valuable in itself.

They did it their way

Perhaps I will post more about my sheet someday.

But in the meantime check out Nick Maguilli’s article this week on how to track your net worth at Of Dollars and Data.

Nick’s shared his own net worth-tracking spreadsheet, too.

Its vastly simpler than mine, and probably better-suited to the majority of our sensible passive investing readers. You can always use it as a starting point if you want to build something more complicated.

One snag is last time I looked live UK fund data is a lot harder to come by with the Google query functions Nick employs for his ETF-based portfolio.

I have less than 1% in non-listed funds at present and I just update the values manually when I think it matters. But from memory you can scrape fund price data from Yahoo Finance with alternative calls to bring live values into Google.

A few years ago Fire V London shared a spreadsheet that pulled fund data from Hargreaves Lansdown, so that’s worth checking out too.

A Google search reveals this is a common roadblock. If anyone has the current and definitive solution, please do share it in the comments below.

Finally, if you’re just looking for an off-the-shelf tracker, then here’s how The Accumulator does it with Morningstar. Note that TA prefers money-weighted returns to unitisation.

What better project for the long weekend than overhauling your portfolio tracking? (I’m not entirely joking, given the weather…)

Enjoy!

[continue reading…]

{ 45 comments }

Reasons not to downsize in retirement

Reasons not to downsize in retirement post image

When I suggested recently that more pensioners might downsize in retirement to unlock spending money and reduce their outgoings, I also adopted the brace position.

However the expected barrage of age-appropriate invective never came.

Sure, the odd pensioner hefted a verbal brickbat in my direction.

But overwhelmingly the replies were thoughtful, proportionate.

Dare I say worldly-wise.

Partly to honour such inter-generational reasonableness – but more because it makes for a good counterpart to my piece – I’ll highlight their counterarguments today, out of the mouths of not-so-babes and Werther’s Original-sucklings1

Size isn’t everything

The lengthiest reply came from John over email. Here’s his full note, with a few light edits for clarity:

Hi Investor

You are preaching to the converted. There is no question that the young (in general, like you I am not wanting to feather bed the shysters) are getting a bum deal.

Particularly the young whose parents do not own a house with equity, giving them the ability to support their kids financially.

We, personally, have been lucky and done financially much better than we could have hoped when we were young.

Housing has been a significant element in that; not just the money, but the physical comfort, self-confidence, and status which goes with it.

These incremental benefits have a cumulative beneficial effect. House purchase was the basis on which my parents, who bought their first house in the 1950s, were able (along with being penny-pinching savers) to provide us with a deposit for our first flat. And it’s enabled us to do the same for our children. 

It was always drilled into us that the only debt we should have was a mortgage for a house. Only houses were ‘as safe as houses’. The risks in buying a house were regarded as negligible, so it is difficult to understand why some regard their primary or only house an ‘investment’.

Sure there are some risks, and certainly differential returns, in owning one house rather than a share in the whole housing market.

Our experience illustrates this:

  • Our first property, three-bed flat on the borders of Brixton and Clapham, cost £6,500 in 1971 and our mortgage was £4,500.
  • Today it would be valued at about the same price as our five-bed house with good garden in a small town in the East Midlands; we had a £50,000 mortgage on that when it was built for £87,000 in 1987. 

At the risk of providing you with too much information:        

We are 77 years young, fit and well, and our house might be valued at the average you quoted in your piece. We justified building a house on this scale 35 years ago on the grounds that we had four children at home, but I don’t think they would have suffered if they had had to double up.

The other reason was that we found a plot in the middle of a small town from which the kids could walk or bike to schools and recreation. We had previously been in Manchester, where we parents operated an intensive taxi service for our young kids.    

We are likely to remain in this house for the foreseeable because:

  1. We have no compelling reason to move elsewhere.
  2. Why should we sort out our junk? The kids are already estimating the number of skips that will be required when the time comes and they won’t be arsed to sort it all. Their houses and gardens are already full.
  3. It is handy to have the space when kids and grandkids visit. They still do visit and we like to think it is not just to review what they think may be their inheritance. We have explained that we think there are a number of better causes than them which will benefit from our estates unless our funds are consumed by care costs. 
  4. We can afford it: comparatively good standard of building and insulation; property taxes do not reflect the value of the property; paying for gardeners, when we cannot cope alone, will be relatively low-cost. The tax system has massively favoured home owners: I seem to remember getting tax relief on mortgage interest payments in the 1970s. Further, a lot of our income is from ISAs on which we pay no tax. 
  5. Our current location will allow us to get to supermarkets, several pubs (you always need access to more than one in case you get banned from one) and restaurants on the level if we are reduced to using zimmer frames. Most of the three-bed houses in the town are much further out of the centre.  
  6. At present (we hope it changes in the budget) there is an inheritance tax benefit in leaving a house valued at up to £1m to our descendants. 

As with marriage, there’s a lot to be said for sticking with what you’ve got to minimise both mental and physical effort and cost. I like to think such inertia is the product of a relaxed approach and if that signifies a lack of ambition to strive for perfection, then so be it. ‘Good enough’ was the standard applied by my social worker wife when considering whether children should remain with their parents.  

I am grateful for your newsletter. You find fresh ways to express eternal truths/values as they relate to money and explain them in the context of the realities of the current marketplace.

Regular reminders help to keep me within sight of the straight and narrow.

All good wishes,

John

I can be annoying to have everything you put into print these days nitpicked over in the comments, compared to 25 years ago when you could loftily opine in peace.

However the big benefit of our interactive era is the relentless reminders that your readers are real people, with their own perspectives, hopes, and concerns.

My thanks to John for taking the time to reply with a thoughtful case in point.

Compromising positions

Several other stalwarts of our Monevator discussions also admitted to staying put despite seeing reasons to downsize in retirement.

Long-time reader and contributor Naeclue conceded:

Guilty as charged. Six-bed house and kids have all moved out into their own homes. Not much of an excuse, but we do entertain quite a lot and all bedrooms are used at Christmas.

I have been trying to think what stops us from downsizing. A few things come to mind. We absolutely love the area, having a lot of friends and two of our kids nearby, so we would want to stay in the area.

Three or even four-bed houses locally all tend to have smaller rooms and lack off-street parking. Our preference would be to have a similar house to our current one, but two stories instead of three. […]

Moving is very expensive and a lot of hassle, so we would want to get it right if/when we do eventually move.

Meanwhile Paul_a38 flags ups the uncertainty of end-of-life spending as a reason to stay put (especially relevant given your own home is excluded from means-testing for the entry levels of social care):

I have just seen a second acquaintance beggared by care costs (24 hrs live-in). Budgeting for deep old age is difficult.

Think their care costs were about £150k per year. If you are selling investments subject to CGT, to fund that £500k won’t go far.

Who am I to disagree with such choices? Given the very favourable tax treatment of one’s primary home, even being house-rich and cash-poor may be a reasonable path for those whose primary concern is the ultimate distribution of wealth to their heirs.

But again, that doesn’t imply the government should support such personal preferences against what we must resort to calling the national interest.

Housing stock is in short supply and – in terms of function, not ‘fairness’ – it’s imperfectly distributed.

Subsidising pensioners to live in big houses shouldn’t be on the government’s agenda.

Hands off our homes!

The philosopher David Hume wrote: “It is not contrary to reason to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger.”

Similarly, a reasonable Monevator reader can see that our housing situation is untenable for young people, and that living in a five-bedroom house as a couple or even a singleton is a more egregious luxury than, say, buying a Hermes handbag, given the knock-on effect on others as a result of finite housing supply.

Yet at the same time that reader can still, understandably, not be arsed to move, for their own sake – for liquidity or lower bills – let alone for others.

A couple of readers did take the shortcut to outrage.

Jibber wrote:

This is like reading something from a socialist magazine. How dare anyone suggest that the retired should be taxed (nudged) out of their family homes? What happened to this ‘free country’!

Jibber then raised the ‘I’ve paid my taxes!’ argument that I anticipated as the cousin of the same retort deployed against inheritance tax.

Note I never suggested paying more tax – or even taxing pensioners more at all.

The only concrete policy action I endorsed was not paying them extra cash to heat their roomy homes via the now-restricted Winter Fuel Allowance.

First they came for the Winter Fuel Allowance…

Another reader sporting an offaly good name, Gizzard, made this more pertinent point:

I suppose it’s not a giant leap to means test the hitherto universal state pension. A lot (or even all) of the same arguments apply.

It’s a fair comment – and it can be made whenever a universal benefit is taken away and replaced with some kind of qualifier or means-testing.

But then, exactly the same argument could be made when, say, income tax is raised by 1% (“Why not 100%”) and we’ll surely hear it if capital gains tax is hiked in October too (“Why not take all my gains”).

Yet most of us would see those counterpoints as an absurd overreach, and I think the same is true of objecting to restrictions on the Winter Fuel Allowance on the grounds of ‘what next’?

It’s a one-off tweak and well-targeted, not necessarily the thin-end of a Titanic-shaped wedge.

Pensioners will always be the biggest voting bloc, remember, and all of us hope to end up there. The State pension is surely safe.

Cold shouldered

Away from the downsize in retirement debate, Wireless worried that withdrawing the Winter Fuel Allowance from some pensioners could result in actual pensioner death.

I have my doubts about this, given the means-testing, but it’s obviously a fair concern.

On the other hand, regarding their parting shot…

The WFA money that was to have been paid to pensioners will presumably go towards the higher than inflation pay deals for public sector unions.

It is obvious where Labour’s priorities are!

…all I can say is “I hope so”.

To paraphrase Jabba the Hutt, your pity-the-poor-pensioners mind tricks don’t work on me.

The government has favoured pensioners for too long. To begin with, when the Coalition government introduced the triple-lock, it was fair enough. Pensioners had fallen behind.

But that’s no longer true.

In contrast, the public sector has been starved of funds for the better part of a decade.

And while like most of you I don’t long for more £75,000-a-year Executive Manager of Ensuring Cultural Sensitivities are Respected in All Outgoing Correspondence: Latvian Language officers or whatnot, such positions are trivial outliers in reality. (And some may be more useful than they seem, too, for that matter).

Spending a bit less on pensioners and a bit more on frontline public sector wages, particularly for the young, junior, or lowly-paid?

Count me in.

Give and take

Dread of theoretical worse-case scenarios shouldn’t stop us finding a middle ground.

On that note, a few readers said we need to tweak the system if we want to encourage more downsizing.

Stamp duty is seen as a big roadblock, as well as that shortage of appealing final-stop homes I mentioned in my piece.

Perhaps there’s some merit to the idea of cutting stamp duty for downsizers as perennially floated by the usual suspects?

Better still, get rid of stamp duty altogether – it’s a frictional tax that impedes growth, and works against the easy mobility we’d prefer to see – and replace the lost State income with a more useful levy.

Or – just maybe – see the total tax take remain relatively unscathed, if freeing up the housing market boosts GDP and overall tax receipts to compensate.

Downsize in retirement and run with it

Regular Monevator comment readers will know Mogul member Delta Hedge has become a vital contributor of context, links, follow-ups, and general value-addery.

This time around, Delta Hedge took the downsizing idea and ran with it:

Why stop at downsizing within the UK?

That £1.7m five-bed average London home shown in the table probably cost just £150,000 at the lowest point of the 1990-95 crash. With a 90% mortgage some people are sitting on 100-baggers, and all tax-free due to PPR relief.

Sell that and move to Panama, Bolivia, the Philippines, Portugal, Malaysia, Mexico, Bali, Thailand, or Vietnam.

You can live like royalty and never need worry about qualifying for the Winter Fuel Allowance.

It’d tempt me. Though as Wodger alludes to in his reply, it’s rather late in life to making new friends in Thailand, say. Especially given the unsavoury nature of at least some of your would-be pensioner peers out there.

Better to go in middle-age – maybe as a geo-arbitrage – and to make proper friends with the locals.

Another alternative if you don’t want to downsize in retirement

To conclude on the social aspect, I didn’t mention another strategy, which is to stay in your big house but to share it more widely.

In the US some call this: getting a boommate. To which I say: nice work punsters.

Having shared until into my 40s for FIRE-ish reasons, I know well how every extra pair of hands putting money into the communal pot makes a big difference to the running costs of a household.

But whether you want to spend your golden years turfing a fellow OAP off the sofa so you can have your own turn on Netflix will be a personal decision, obviously.

Given the introverted nature of most Monevator readers, I suspect many of us would rather downsize to a dog kennel.

It has to be admitted though that the health benefits of living a more sociable retirement ring loud and clear in the research data I’ve seen.

If sharing your home does appeal more than downsizing to you, then don’t forget the UK’s rent-a-room scheme enables you to earn £7,500 tax-free from a lodger.

You could even choose a hard-pressed student instead of an out-of-breath oldie as a roommate to better stay in touch with the younger generation.

Such intergenerational mixing also has proven benefits. I suspect it’s especially good for warding-off crotchety old man syndrome for those of us – like me – who don’t have kids of our own.

(Those with kids might have seen them boomerang back home anyway, I guess…)

Like, comment, and subscribe

If you want to keep your home your island, then by all means you do you.

I’d feel the same nowadays.

But at least be a little more social by reading – and even contributing to – the Monevator comments.

This thread on downsizing wasn’t even on investing specifics, yet it still added a lot to anything interesting I wrote in the article.

Indeed I collated lots of other reader comments to include in this summary. From critiques of the mechanics of the Winter Fuel Allowance withdrawal to proposals for replacing stamp duty and council tax with a wealth tax.

But at this point you’re best off just reading the comments for more.

Many subscribers to Monevator by email never visit the site anymore. Feedback over email reveals more than a few of you have forgotten there’s even a website behind your three-times-a-week emails!

On the other hand, other readers have said the Monevator comments are the reason they keep coming back to our site, for years on end.

I’m happy to downsize my ego and say: long may that continue!

As to whether you should downsize in retirement – I’ll see you in the comments for the next round…

  1. Don’t be cross, I’m just having fun with stereotypes and am partial to them too! []
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US stocks vs the World: how often does the lead change hands? [Members]

The US stock market has beaten the World index every year since 2010 in GBP terms. We discuss this often – it’s the major asset allocation dilemma of our time.

Are we nuts for persisting with diversification? Should we just go all-in on the S&P 500 and be done with it?

This article can be read by selected Monevator members. Please see our membership plans and consider joining! Already a member? Sign in here.
{ 21 comments }