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What is GDP?

What is GDP?

GDP – or Gross Domestic Product – is a measure of the overall economic output within a country’s borders over a particular time, typically a year.

GDP is calculated by adding together the total value of annual output of all that country’s goods and services.

GDP can also be measured by income by considering the factors producing the output – the capital and labour – or by expenditure by government, individuals, and business on that output.

  • Real GDP is the gross domestic product adjusted for inflation
  • Nominal GDP is the gross domestic product without taking into account inflation.

What is the GDP growth rate?

The change in GDP from one year to the next (or from quarter to quarter) can be given as a percentage. This is called the GDP growth rate.

The real GDP growth rate is a much more useful measure of economic growth than the nominal rate.

If a country’s GDP is growing at a nominal rate of 5% but inflation is running at 4%, only 1% of the growth is down to improved economic output. The rest is just because prices of goods and services went up.

What is GDP really worth?

The GDP shows how well a particular country is doing economically.

A recession, for instance, is defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth.

One drawback of GDP however is that it can only measure what the government has measured. Anything traded without the government knowing won’t be included in the GDP, which can be significant in some countries.

Also, it’s worth stressing GDP is a purely economic measure. A brutal dictatorship might whip a decent GDP growth rate out of its workforce, for instance, but it wouldn’t say much about the standard of living in that country!

Similarly, some environmentalists have argued that our obsession with growth has led to an over-exploitation of the Earth’s resources.

GDP as a formula

The GDP can be represented by the following formula:

  • GDP = C + G + I + NX

Where:

  • C = All private consumption
  • G = All government spending
  • I = Investment by businesses
  • NX = The country’s net exports (total exports – total imports)

To discover what is the GDP of particular countries, try the CIA World Factbook.

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The financial end-of-year reviews: 2008

Financial journalists were just about the only winners in 2008. Whether it be Robert Peston on the BBC, the bookworms of The Economist, or the gorgeous anchor babes on CNBC, business reporters have had more front pages than Madonna.

Now they’re squeezing every drop from 2008 with their end-of-year roundups.

No time to read them all? Here’s what they’re saying in summary:

[continue reading…]

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Money can’t buy me love

What follows is a personal post, but I believe it’s relevant to investing. I won’t be discussing underpriced stocks or earning more money. Instead I’ll share something that for me puts the business of personal finance into perspective. Call it an end of year message.

I’m visiting my parents. In the next room, my gentle and intelligent father is asking my mother when he’ll have to leave the house again. It’s the third time he has asked in the past half hour. I can’t make out all the words, because he is slurring them.

He’s confused and agitated. Soon he’ll ask my mum – his wife – to take him to the bathroom. He goes every 45 minutes, sometimes messily. I wonder if they’d ever thought of such things when they met 40 years ago.

Dad wooed my mother one summer by the beach. He took his pasty, portly frame to the seaside every weekend, talked about surfing, and hid that he couldn’t swim. Mum was a church-goer who’d never had a drink. And now here they are, old and still together even as they fall apart.

I could not be more proud of him and her, nor more grateful that he’s still around to frustrate us and make us smile. In two days he’ll go back into the hospital for further treatment, but if he keeps getting better then he could eventually come home for good. Or at least for as long he gets.

Well, how did we get here?

Three months ago I left London in a hurry on a weekday afternoon. I’d bought the Financial Times to take my mind off what I’d heard an hour before: my father had suffered a massive cardiac arrest. He was in an ambulance. My mother was in shock, having initially mistaken dad’s heart attack for one of his practical jokes.

(She laughed with him even as he spluttered in the chair and pulled faces. Being his son, despite everything I can’t help but smile at that. I think it speaks of a life well-lived.)

Dad was given CPR by a neighbour whose arthritis meant he had to fall in agony to his knees to pound my dad’s chest. My mother wasn’t sure if dad was still alive, or even where the ambulance had taken him.

On the train I barely glanced at the newspaper, and I still can’t really believe what it said. Lehman Brothers was gone and stock markets were in free fall. These were historic times. This could be a new 1929, geared up for the globalised generation.

My mother initially mistook dad’s heart attack for a practical joke

I’d expected the economy to blow up for years; not the death of investment banks – like the bankers themselves I’d assumed they were smarter than that – but an end to the boom times, especially in property. Now it was unwinding in spectacular fashion, and my mind and heart was elsewhere.

I spent the train journey gathering the family together, making mobile phone calls to the people my mother couldn’t reach (which was nearly everyone, since she had probably used her mobile phone twice in her life. Dad’s phone was found to be broken, and we realized later it had been blasted to uselessness by the emergency defibrillator). Like a true Brit, I’d flushed with embarrassment when I turned in the space between the carriages where I was making the calls to discover a dozen disembarking commuters looking at their toes and avoiding my eyes as a mark of mute respect at what they’d heard.

That shocking Financial Times lay unread on my seat – an appropriate addition to a suddenly crazy time that overnight changed how I saw my world.

In the long run, we’re all dead

I’d expected my dad to decline for even longer than I’d been skeptical of the global property boom.

Seven or eight years ago dad was diagnosed with prostate cancer, at less than 60 years old. When I heard I was disbelieving at first, like most adult children of thoroughly loving parents when they’re reminded they’ll one day live in a world without them. But one of the best investments I ever made was to then bury an unspoken competitiveness that had marred my relationship with my father in my self-obsessed twenties, and to get to know him anew.

I traveled down from London much more often. We built a birdhouse together. He taught me to hammer and saw again; this time I listened, watched and learned, and for his part he let me make mistakes and even offered the odd word of undeserved praise. We both agreed it was a shame we hadn’t managed to reach this understanding when I was a child, no longer caring why we hadn’t.

Dad responded to the cancer battle both positively (the thing receded) and badly (the various side-effects of the cancer treatment can challenge a man). Meanwhile we mended fences, poured foundations for garden furniture, and memorably salvaged a greenhouse at midnight in a cold, wet British winter in a gale. Hands frozen and completely ineffectual, we were eventually laughing like mad seamen as the wind tugged at the skeleton of plastic and aluminum. I held a torch in my teeth, dad stuffed one in his shirt. It pointed up so his face glowed like some jolly demon. We could have been eight-years old.

Dad tried to retire early and had to wait. I was quietly furious at his lack of options, and started Monevator with a post about a nameless relative’s pension plight. I didn’t say then that it was my father because I didn’t think he’d like to read about himself as requiring sympathy, pity or even anger. Now I don’t believe he’ll ever read my site.

The sensation of cliché doesn’t last once you arrive at an intensive care bed. It’s suddenly very real.

He has made huge strides, though. When I arrived from London that first night, I went from my anxious relatives in the waiting room to dad’s bed in the intensive care ward like a finger running down a checklist of clichés from soap operas. It all seemed too familiar, like how the first time you visit New York you feel like you’ve lived there before.

The sensation doesn’t last once you arrive at the intensive care bed, however. It’s suddenly very real. All the tubes going into every bodily opening. The machine breathing for your father. Bleeps punctuating the hush. Every variable of being alive monitored and noted down by blue-robed medical staff – like priests in a cathedral dedicated to keeping sparks of life alight.

Opportunity costs

I can’t tell you that as I sat there holding my father’s hand for the first time in 30 years that I decided investing and the pursuit of some modest wealth was wrong. I didn’t think that then and I don’t now.

But I did finally realize – suddenly and in a powerful way – that it was all ultimately for nothing.

We can save, we can invest, we can calculate what replacement income we need to escape the rat race. But for all of us – whether we’re poor or we run a business empire that spans continents – our world will one day fold in, and everything that matters will recede to a few rooms and faces. And after that, honestly, to a bed and a few breaths. Any comforts then are between an individual and their faith or philosophy.

Particularly in those first days, when I could sneak away to be angry without being seen, I thought even more that my father had been dealt a rotten hand. I knew he hadn’t, really – born into the developed world healthy, smart, and to loving parents, he missed the Second World War and the skirmishes that followed and enjoyed those decades of opportunities for those who could take them.

Yet selfishly I still thought about how he’d done the right thing, only to be struck off a decade before the actuaries ought to be claiming him. Why hadn’t he drunk, womanized, gambled and brawled? Why not?

Perhaps this is what everyone thinks at times like these: life assessment. As he had done so many times when I was a child, my father was making me think again about what my life was really all about.

Healthy is wealthy

Ten weeks ago – two weeks after he was admitted – I sat in a room with doctors who explained that though they didn’t really understand the brain at all (and thus they couldn’t be definitive) things looked extremely bad.

Out of the corner of my eye, I could see the small room inside which my dad was on a padded bed, clawing at his face, chewing off his own lips and oblivious to the world except for a few reflex actions.

The doctor implied (not unkindly) that we’d best hope for another heart attack.

Tonight my father got a question right in The Weakest Link that I got wrong. (“What did Admiral Horatio Nelson say England expects every man to do?”). Dad getting the answer right (“His duty”) was a tiny moment in a day in which I’d had to explain to him once more what socks were, walk him 20 yards around his garden in as many minutes, and scold him as if he was a schoolboy for nagging my mum. But life with him now is all about these tiny moments.

We are lucky in the UK to have the National Health Service, where dad has got pretty good treatment. Sure, there’s been a slip here and there, and fault to find if you wanted to find it (family keeping an eye out definitely helps a patient). But most of the medical staff have been great, and the freedom never to worry about the cost of it all is something it’s hard to appreciate enough.

I dread to think what the uninsured cost of dad’s nursing treatment and latterly occupational, speech and other therapy would be in some countries. So dad is ‘lucky’ again – and don’t take my word for it, he told a visitor just this morning, curled in his chair, reaching for the words, that many are worse off then him. I could have cried. Perhaps I should have.

Do I wish I’d made millions, to make dad’s pain easier for everyone? Yes… and no. No if it had meant that in pursuing those riches I’d been unable to spend leisurely weekends getting to know my dad again. And not if it meant I was too mission-critical to my company to spend half of the past three months with him and my mother when every day felt like an ending.

I dread to think what the uninsured cost of dad’s nursing treatment and therapy would be in some countries.

I don’t want to finish this article on a rousing conclusion. I don’t think there is one. It’s one thing to argue the merits of index funds versus active management, quite another to dare to suggest how anyone should live their lives – especially when I’m clearly still finding my way for myself.

Perhaps all I’m trying to say this: As we save money and invest for the future, whether for retirement or for some rainy day when the roof falls in, it’s too easy to forget why we bother. Whether it’s fear of being trapped in a job you hate, worries about your children, dreams of doing something exciting, or any of a hundred other good reasons – life is why we need the money. We don’t live for it.

It’s often said that nobody on their deathbed wishes they’d spent more time in the office, but I bet a few wish they’d spent more money before the end. Even a penny to your name isn’t worth much where we’re going.

This site is about making, saving and investing money, and that’s not going to change. I’ve dozens of articles I’m really looking forward to writing, about everything from corporate bonds and property to entrepreneurship and philanthropy. And I’m surer than ever that spending less than you earn and investing the difference is vital to a happy life, however else you choose to live it.

But I bet every reader has – or will one day have – a story like mine and my dad’s. None of us are sitting in some garret counting our pennies. At least not without an occasional glance at the sun rising and setting, and at the people milling around below.

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Small cap stocks can increase your portfolio returns, but they’re also more risky investments than large caps. In this post I’ll outline the six key advantages of investing in small caps versus bigger companies, and I’ll also point out some of the extra risks.

Advantage #1: Smaller companies are less well researched

An army of analysts, brokers, traders and journalists pours over every share listed on the major stock markets. Each individual is looking for an insight that others have missed such as:

  • Increasing earnings (perhaps hidden by unusual expenditure)
  • An overlooked new product
  • The arrival or departure of a key executive
  • Undervalued assets on the balance sheet (particularly property)
  • Legal developments
  • Too much cash being spent on the corporate washrooms
  • One of a million other things

A useful nugget might be revealed in an interview in the trade press or be buried in the small print of the company’s final results. Anything material must be declared to the market, but a lot of investing comes down to judgement. If you understand the ramifications of a piece of information better or more quickly than others, you still have an edge over them.

The key point regarding small caps is these professional analysts overwhelmingly concentrate on larger companies.

Analysts have to pay their bills, too. And they’re much more likely to sell their research to fund managers looking to put millions into a major oil share. Brokers concentrate on bigger companies, too, since they need commission from institutions who deal in volume. And institutional traders aren’t likely to pursue micro-stocks worth less than the value of their own house.

These analysts all cover Apple (AAPL), the tech giant:

Actual, American Technology Research, Argus Research, Atlantic Equities, Bank of America Securities, Barclays Capital, Bernstein Research, BMO Capital Markets US, Citigroup Investment Research, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Research, FTN Midwest Securities, Gabelli & Company, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Kaufman Bros, Kintisheff Research, Morgan Keegan, Morgan Stanley, Needham, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Pacific Crest, Piper Jaffray, RBC Capital Markets, Standard & Poors, ThinkPanmure, Thomas Weisel Partners

These cover Psion (PON), the UK-listed technology small-cap:

ABN AMRO, Panmure Gordon, Seymour Pierce, Teathers Limited

With which share are you more likely to spot something others have overlooked?

Advantage #2: It’s easier to double the sales of a smaller company

  • A small fast food chain can roll its format out to more cities or countries
  • A small manufacturer can devise a breakthrough product that becomes a global smash, quadrupling its sales
  • A one-magazine publisher can start a second magazine

It’s far harder to double the $10,000 million turnover of Starbucks (SBUX) than the $100 million turnover of London-listed Carluccio’s (CARL). Not impossible – giant companies become giants, after all. But by definition only a few big companies will become giants, whereas a lot of successful young companies can and do grow fast.

‘Elephants don’t gallop’ is how investment legend Jim Slater put it. He prefers sprightly small caps to elephants.

Advantage #3: Small caps often get re-rated

Quick reminder: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a measure of how highly rated a stock is. If the market believes earnings are going to rise a lot in years to come, it will pay more for shares in that company now, compared to a plodder going nowhere. In other words, the P/E ratio will be higher for the fast-grower.

Generally, small caps trade on lower P/E ratios than larger companies, at least until their ‘story’ becomes widely appreciated. Not always: tech start-ups soared in the dotcom bubble on stratospheric P/E ratios, and big companies can fall out of favour and see their P/E drop. But usually smaller companies are on lower ratings, perhaps because they’re riskier.

In hunting for small cap growth shares, you want to find an exciting company that’s either new or that has a new story, but which hasn’t been fully noticed by other investors yet. (If everyone believes the company is going to keeping growing at 20% a year, the P/E ration will have already been bid up, and will be vulnerable to a de-rating if they disappoint.)

Jim Slater explains the power of P/E re-rating very well in The Zulu Principle.

You see something special in a small cap company when it is still relatively unknown. This company is lumped in with the other small caps in its sector, on a P/E of say 10. As it outperforms and more people are convinced its earnings growth is sustainable, its P/E ratio could increase to say 20.

This re-rating has a dramatic effect on your returns, compared to if the company simply grew its earnings but wasn’t re-rated:

Let’s suppose the re-rating occurs as earnings are growing at 25% a year and are forecast to keep doing so.

The combined effect of the change in earnings and the higher multiple increases your gain from 25% to 150%, like so:

(100 + 25) x (20/10) = 250
Original investment = 100
Gain = 150%

This dramatic return is what attracts private investors to fast-growing companies.

Be warned, finding consistent growth shares is not half as easy as it sounds. Over the long-term, value investing has a better track record. But the market continually offers up growth company opportunities to those few who can spot them.

Advantage #4: Your knowledge can give you an edge

You’re not going to be the first investor to notice McDonald’s burgers are better than they were. Millions eat at McDonalds (MCD) every day.

but you could be first to spot bigger queues at the Gourmet Burger Kitchens run by Clapham House (CPH).

Expert or local knowledge is more likely to be worth something when evaluating small caps. Your mum might say her new indigestion pills are amazing, but the Big Pharma company that makes the pills already produced research telling analysts that months ago. Your insight was right, but it’s too well-known to be valuable.

  • Whether this sort of information can be really be ‘new’ in an efficient market is a hotly debated topic. I don’t think the market is always efficient.
  • If you think the market is truly efficient, you should only invest in index trackers, rather than individual shares, whether small cap or large cap. You’ll probably do better than active investors, though we’ll have more fun! (I cover both styles of investing on Monevator, so please do subscribe).
  • If you think the market is somewhat efficient, it’s clear smaller companies offer a lot more opportunity for private investors to spot the information the market has missed

Advantage #5: You can buy small caps, ‘they’ can’t (so be glad you’re not a billionaire)

Some funds are dedicated to small caps, but the majority invest in larger companies.

Imagine you manage a giant pension fund. It’s hardly worth you glancing at the share price of a small cap, because:

  • You won’t be able to invest sufficient money into a small company without moving the share price.
  • Investing across hundreds of companies, you’re not going to be able to keep track of the activities of small caps unless you’re the next Peter Lynch.
  • If you do manage to invest a significant proportion of your millions under management into a small cap, you’ll probably have to declare it publicly. Everyone will then know what you’re buying, and bid up the price (fine if you’ve finished buying, but bad if you’re still building a position).
  • Even if the share price doubles, a small investment will barely impact a massive fund’s returns.
  • Your mandate might bar you from investing in small companies anyway.

Compare that to the portfolios of us private investors:

  • We can invest a significant portion of our wealth into even a micro-cap without moving the price much.
  • We can put our money into as few companies as we choose.
  • We will notice a doubling or tripling of the share price in a ten stock portfolio. (Oh boy, will we notice!)

Advantage #6: Small cap indices have historically produced greater returns than large caps

The advantages we’ve looked at apply to picking individual small cap stocks over large caps. But a broad basket of small cap shares has historically done better than large caps, too, especially when you add value versus growth to the mix:

Exactly why this situation should persist is an old puzzle, but a New York Times article on the small cap advantage proposes an answer:

By definition, an overvalued stock has a larger market capitalization than would otherwise be the case. Its price-to-book ratio is also higher, and thus it is closer to the growth end of the growth-value spectrum. Portfolios of large growth stocks will contain a disproportionate number of overvalued issues, and should, on average, lag behind the market.

The opposite is the case for undervalued stocks. So small-cap value portfolios will have more than their share of them and should beat the market in the long term.

We’re not looking specifically at value versus growth here, which does juice the returns further. The take away for now is that if you invest in a basket of small caps, history suggests you’ll have a good following wind with you.

Remember: Small caps investing is more risky

Small caps offer advantages, but there’s good reasons why even private investors often favor bigger companies:

  • Small caps are more volatile (at both the individual and index level)
  • Small caps go bust (or near as damn it) much more often
  • The spread between buying and selling prices can be large, so your new investment shows a sizeable immediate loss
  • They’re much less liquid – if bad news hits the company, you may not be able to sell your holding quickly, or only at a very low price
  • They’re arguably more prone to hype and investment mania
  • Small caps are often more closely correlated with the domestic economy

So is it sensible to invest in small caps?

The evidence says investors should drip money into index trackers over the long-term. You’ll get the average market return that way, and you won’t pay all the fees associated with buying and selling individual shares, let alone over-trade and do worse.

One middle-way solution is to invest say 10% of your portfolio in a small cap fund, to get some benefit of the broader small cap gains we considered earlier without taking on too much volatility. Several small cap index trackers and ETFs track the North American market. UK investors aren’t so lucky, and are best off looking at cheap investment trusts with decent long-term records, such as Aberforth Smaller Companies and the Rights and Issues Trust. Avoid expensive small-cap funds with up-front charges!

But suppose you decide to invest some portion of your worldly wealth into individual stocks, rather sensibly buying the market via index trackers. Perhaps like me you enjoy the challenge. You find investigating companies interesting, and you’re prepared to risk doing worse than a passive investor for the possibility of doing gloriously better.

In that case, I believe investing in small caps versus large caps has advantages we just can’t afford to ignore in seeking an investing edge.

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