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Crypto ETNs: what you need to know

Exciting news: after four years of prohibition, UK retail investors will again be able to buy exchange-traded notes (ETNs) linked to cryptocurrencies.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) lifts its ban on 8 October. Compliant products will likely hit mainstream brokers shortly thereafter.

According to the FCA, 12% of UK adults own crypto assets (around seven million people) and 26% of non-crypto asset owners say, “they would be more likely to buy crypto assets if the market and activities were regulated.”

In other words, crypto is gaining acceptance as a part of many people’s investment portfolios. (At least until the next crypto winter.)

What we want to know is:

  • What type of crypto products has the FCA approved?
  • How do they work?
  • Do they actually track their associated cryptocurrencies?
  • What are the risks?
  • How are you protected if it all goes horribly wrong?
  • What about tax?

That will do for starters.

The big win

Exchange-traded products of all types (ETFs, ETNs, and ETCs) enable more everyday people to invest in an asset class without getting embroiled in all the hassle that direct ownership usually brings with it.

  • Don’t want to research the ‘best dynamite-proof safes’ to house your gold bar collection? Buy a gold ETC
  • Don’t want a herd of cows turning up on your doorstep? Buy a commodities ETF
  • Don’t want the next Sam Bankman-Fried to nick all your crypto? Buy a crypto ETN

You get the idea. With exchange-traded products, you can outsource the grief of asset ownership to trusted providers for a reasonable fee.

However that doesn’t mean all exchange-traded products are the same.

If you buy an MSCI World ETF then you can be pretty sure you are getting well regulated exposure to over a thousand leading stock market-listed companies.

But ETNs are not ETFs. And crypto ownership entails different risks to share ownership.

Importantly, you don’t actually own any crypto when you invest in this type of product. But the ETN issuer may well do. That exposes it and you to a steaming jungle of risks that I’ll touch upon below.

Meanwhile the rest of this article will help you go into all this with your eyes wide open.

What are crypto ETNs?

The FCA has only green-lit the sale of crypto ETNs (not ETFs) to retail investors in the UK.1

The UK-approved crypto ETN headlines are:

  • Bitcoin or Ether are the only cryptocurrencies that can be linked to via an ETN for now
  • The ETN must track the market price of its cryptocurrency – often via a third-party index
  • It should be physically backed by a non-leveraged asset. That underlying asset can be Bitcoin or Ether, but it doesn’t have to be
  • ETNs aren’t protected by the FSCS compensation scheme. (Neither are ETFs for that matter, though hopefully you’ve chosen a broker who is)
  • Crypto ETNs are tradeable on the London Stock Exchange
  • ETNs can be bought in your ISA or SIPP, so long as the issuer has ticked the necessary boxes
  • ETNs are not governed by the warm and cuddly UCITS regulations
  • Total Expense Ratios (TERs) are likely to range from 0.15% to 2%

ETNs aren’t new. They’ve been used to track certain assets (like old-school currencies) long before crypto.

Indeed crypto ETNs aren’t new either. They were offered to the UK public up until they were restricted in January 2021. And they’ve gathered billions in assets from UK professional investors and European retail investors since then.

These existing products are obviously the ones most likely to come on-stream for retail investors after 8 October. Which is handy for us, because it means we can size them up beforehand.

Notable names

Crypto ETNs are issued by both traditional investment asset managers and crypto-native outfits.

Familiar names that already offer ETNs in the UK and Europe include WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, VanEck, and BlackRock.

Crypto-focussed brands include 21Shares, Bitwise, Coinbase, and Valour.

Crypto ETNs: the dark and dingy details

ETNs are debt securities rather than investment funds. In exchange for your cash, you get a promise that the issuer will pay you a return in the future.

What happens if the ETN’s issuer defaults? In that case you may be paid less than you are owed – or not at all.

In debt parlance, you’ll ‘take a haircut’. Probably one that feels more like the medieval lock-chopping practised by religious maniacs than a nice tint and blow-dry down your local salon.

But what might prevent you from getting entirely mullet-ed in such a scenario is collateral.

A ‘collateralised’ ETN protects the value of your investment with a big stash of assets lodged with an (ideally) independent and reputable custodian.

Should your issuer be unable to pay, this collateral can be sold to honour the debt.

You might ask does your issuer stow away enough collateral to cover the value of its obligations? Is the collateral good quality? Will it fetch enough on the market to pay back investors during a crisis?

All good questions, which you’ll have to answer on a case-by-case basis (and by delving into the details provided by your ETN on its website).

The dating game

ETNs can be dated or undated debt instruments.

  • Dated means the ETN has a fixed maturity date. Just like a bond does.
  • Undated means the security is theoretically perpetual – like a share (or an old-fashioned ‘consol’ if you’re a bond aficionado or a Jane Austen fan).

You’d expect crypto ETNs to be undated – that is, for the security to be available so long as there’s a market for it and nothing blows up.

But an ETN can be called. This means the issuer can redeem it at any time – paying back investors with the cash in the collateral kitty.

It’s worth reading the ETN’s prospectus to understand what happens in the event your chosen product is redeemed early. Especially the sections on how the claims of other parties will be paid before the investors.

You’ll likely come across choice phrases such as:

…following satisfaction of all priority claims, such Security holders [that’s us!] may not receive payment of the Early Redemption Amount in full and may receive substantially less and may potentially receive nothing.

There’s lovely.

There’ll also be an early redemption fee to boot.

So choose an ETN that’s stocked with plenty of collateral. The issuer is under no obligation to make any other assets available in the event of a shortfall.

Let’s get physical

ETNs can be synthetic as opposed to physically backed.

A synthetic ETN employs a swap-based derivative to deliver the performance of the underlying asset. This introduces another layer of counterparty risk, because the company providing the swap could fail.

This may be moot for now, since it looks like only physically-backed crypto ETNs will be admitted to the London Stock Exchange. But it’s still worth checking if you’re compiling a shortlist of candidates.

Do crypto ETNs actually track their crypto’s spot price?

Here’s a quick USD comparison of the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) versus Bitcoin’s market price.

Source: Google Finance (26 Sep 2020 to 22 September 2025).

BTCE

Source: justETF (26 Sep 2020 to 19 September 2025).

JustETF and Google Finance can’t quite agree on what five years is, so up next is the result I got when I matched the dates for a comparable long-term view:

Asset5-yr cumulative return (%)5-yr annualised return (%)
BTCE87856
Bitcoin99061

Dates: 26 Sep 2020 to 19 September 2025. (BTCE inception date: 9 Jun 2020, TER: 2%.)

That’s an astounding return from Bitcoin either way – assuming you held on during the 77% death slide from November 2021 through November 2022.

But still, BTCE gave up 5% a year in comparison to Bitcoin – a tracking difference that isn’t entirely accounted for by the ETN’s eye-watering 2% TER.

Tracks of my tears

Transaction costs, taxation, blockchain network fees, collateral overheads, brokerage charges, and various other operational frictions can all eat into your return without necessarily being captured by the TER.

You’re also likely to see a clause like this nestled in a crypto ETN’s prospectus:

The market value and price of the ETP securities does not exclusively depend on the prevailing price of bitcoin and changes in the prevailing price of bitcoin may not necessarily result in a comparable change in the market value of the ETP securities.

Other ETNs may track their linked cryptocurrency more faithfully than BTCE. I haven’t checked other products or timeframes.

But the point here is I’ve never seen such a large tracking difference gap when investigating vanilla ETFs tethered to mainstream asset classes.

On that basis, I recommend checking the tracking difference performance of all your prospective ETN candidates versus their linked cryptocurrencies. It looks like being an important factor.

Watch out for wide spreads, too. This is another cost of business that may vary widely, depending on the ETN’s liquidity and, at times, shifting perceptions of the creditworthiness of the issuer and any associated service providers.

Crypto ETNs: the risks

Reading the risk section of a crypto ETN’s prospectus is like visiting a chamber of horrors. Every grisly fate and sticky end your ETN could meet is listed.

Or at least I hope it’s listed.

Either way it’s an educational read and, if you’re on the fence about crypto investing, it could send you running in the opposite direction of the alluring 900% return graph I showed above.

To give you a flavour, let’s pick out a few highlights from the risk section of the iShares Bitcoin ETP (IB1T) prospectus. (To be clear this is just illustrative: I have no reason to believe that IB1T is a particularly risky crypto ETN.)

What follows is a sample of the higher-dimensional risk space you enter when crypto is involved. It’s got more dimensions than string theory…

Theft of crypto

…the Issuer’s bitcoin may be subject to theft, loss, destruction or other attack, which may result in the value of the Securities being reduced, potentially to zero.

Irrecoverable losses

A breach of the Issuer’s account at the Custodian or the Prime Execution Agent could result in the partial or total loss of the Issuer’s assets, which is likely to result in a partial or full loss in the value of the Securities.

If any relevant Cryptoassets are lost, stolen, damaged or otherwise compromised in circumstances in which the Custodian, the Prime Execution Agent, another service provider to the Issuer or any other party is liable to the Issuer for such loss, theft, damage or compromise, the Custodian, the Prime Execution Agent or other responsible party may not have sufficient resources to fully compensate the Issuer.

Security risks including the efficacy of cold storage

The security procedures in place for the Issuer’s bitcoin may include offline ‘cold’ storage, the use of multiple encrypted private key ‘shards’, and other measures designed to reduce the risk of the loss or theft of the Issuer’s bitcoin. However, these cannot guarantee the prevention of any loss due to a security breach, software defect or force majeure event that may be experienced by the Issuer or the Custodian…

Cryptoexchange risk

Crypto asset platforms are often unregulated in nature and may be vulnerable to manipulative trading activity, business failure, fraud and security breaches. In addition, if a crypto asset platform which a Series of Securities utilises for storage, trading and/or settlement becomes insolvent this may lead to a loss of the Issuer’s underlying assets and therefore a loss for the relevant Security holders.

Concentration of Bitcoin ownership

Crypto assets may be subject to attacks by malicious actors or groups of actors. If a malicious actor or botnet obtains control of more than 50% of the processing power dedicated to mining on the Bitcoin network, it may be able to alter the Bitcoin blockchain on which transactions in bitcoin rely by constructing fraudulent blocks or preventing certain transactions from completing in a timely manner or at all (a ‘51% attack’).

To the extent that such malicious actor or botnet did not yield its control of the processing power on the Bitcoin network, or the Bitcoin community did not reject the fraudulent blocks as malicious, reversing any changes made to the Bitcoin blockchain may not be possible. There have been a number of examples of 51% attacks on cryptocurrencies.

Devaluation risk

…there is no guarantee that the current 21 million supply cap for outstanding Bitcoin, which is estimated to be reached by approximately the year 2140, will not be changed. If a hard fork changing the 21 million supply cap is widely adopted, the limit on the supply of Bitcoin could be lifted, which could have an adverse impact on the value of bitcoin and the value of the Securities.

Cryptography risk

The cryptography underlying bitcoin could prove to be flawed or ineffective, or developments in mathematics and/or technology, including advances in digital computing, algebraic geometry and quantum computing, could result in such cryptography becoming ineffective.

Any resulting reduction in the integrity of, or confidence in, the source code or cryptography underlying crypto assets generally could negatively affect the demand for crypto assets and therefore may adversely affect the value of Bitcoin and consequently the value of the Securities.

Developer risk

Some developers may also be funded by entities whose interests are at odds with the interests of other participants in the Bitcoin network or with the interests of investors in bitcoin. A bad actor could also seek to interfere with the operation of the Bitcoin network by attempting to exercise a malign influence over a core developer.

Taxation risk

There is currently no tax certainty regarding the treatment of investments in crypto assets across various jurisdictions due to the novelty of the asset class. Accordingly, the taxation of the crypto assets and associated investments can vary significantly from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and may be subject to change, potentially also with retroactive effect. Any change in the tax treatment of the crypto assets could result in the Issuer incurring additional taxes…

…and there’s plenty more where that came from. I’m not even getting into the regulatory risk, or the uncertainty over whether the issuer could legally enforce its claim to the ETN’s crypto collateral held with third-parties.

Really, you could replace all 23,867 words in the prospectus’ risk section with the legend: AAAAARGH!

Or as the issuer succinctly puts it:

Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest.

Crypto ETN tax

Okay, let’s turn now to something more relaxing. Tax.

A crypto ETN does not pay an income. Thus the only tax to worry about is capital gains – payable if you hold the product outside of your tax shelters.

Also, if the ETN is domiciled outside of the UK then check it has reporting fund status. If not then capital gains will be taxed at income tax rates when you sell. That could hurt!

Note that this reporting fund stuff doesn’t apply if you’ve safely stashed your ETN in an ISA or SIPP.

Crypto ETN checklist

When comparing crypto ETNs, look for:

Cost of ownership – What’s the TER, bid-offer spreads, tracking difference?

Collateral – What assets are held as collateral, how much is held versus the value of the product, are there daily disclosures, is the collateral insured and independently audited?

The custodian – Is the keeper of the collateral independent and reputable?

Securities lending policy – Can the collateral be lent out? That would invite yet more counterparty risk.

Asset protection – Is the crypto mostly held offline in cold storage? Are the ETN’s assets segregated from other parties?

Product structure – Is the ETN backed by physical cryptocurrency or another asset, or does it use synthetic replication (that is, swap-based derivatives)? Physical is usually safer.

Price index – Google it. Is this index reputable? Does it definitely track the crypto’s spot price?

ETN leverage – Look for a 1:1 ratio to ensure you’re getting a non-leveraged product. (Unless you actually want leverage, you complete and utter nutter.)

Tax – Can I hold the product in my ISA or SIPP? If not, does it have reporting fund status?

Early redemption, default, and failure – What does the prospectus say about these scenarios?

Best of luck!

Obviously none of this is investing advice. We’re just running through things to think about should you decide you want to research these new offerings for yourself.

Personally, I can’t say I’m about to sink my life savings into crypto. But I will follow along with interest. I think crypto is an astounding phenomenon but I have grave doubts about its worth as an asset class in a wider portfolio.

Of course, my views are neither here nor there. And even the FCA has caved to the inevitable, because swathes of Brits were opting to take their chances in unregulated offshore exchanges. Not to mention the various other crypto-powered vehicles that had crept onto the market.

Is this progress? I don’t know. But I am fascinated.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

  1. The ‘retail investors’ category refers to ordinary punters like you and me who invest their own money in their own accounts. As opposed to professional investors who trade for a living, or ‘sophisticated’ investors who can typically afford to lose a lot of money if they spunk their cash away on a scam. []
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Weekend reading: The American dream

Our Weekend Reading logo

What caught my eye this week.

One big driver of the thousands of young economic migrants who’ve come to Europe and the UK over the past decade is said to be the spread of social media.

Now that the developing world can see – it all its influencer-filtered glory – how the West has been living all these years, many of world’s poorer citizens want a piece of it.

Wouldn’t you?

Of course we might say they should look to pull their own countries up instead. Strive for freer markets, better governance, more education, stronger property rights, and whatnot.

I agree but it’s easier said than done. While globalisation and capitalism have done a decent job of alleviating true poverty since the 1970s, from memory only a dozen or so developing countries have made it to developed status since the 1990s.

Also you don’t need to be an 18-year old student activist at SOAS to see the West still has multiple embedded advantages, which it strives to protect.

It’ll even adopt the role of victim to do so. Just consider the spectacle of the world’s richest nation bemoaning bullies and vowing to be make itself great again.

Get up and go

The point is though that as an individual the situation can look even more hopeless.

You have to rely on your country’s politicians and institutions to do the right thing. We increasingly can’t even rely on ours for that.

Indeed isn’t there an ironic tension that it’s the champions of individualism in the right-wing media who are the ones who most bemoan young men taking it into their own hands to try to better their lives?

Of course understanding their motivations – and even extending our sympathy – doesn’t mean we should let them act against the law.

Illegal immigration is an overblown and politically weaponised issue, but it’s a real one. Not only does it erode trust in our multicultural social fabric in the short-term, it can only scale badly in the long-term, given the disparity in global demographics.

So we have to draw the line somewhere. Much of the nastiness we’re seeing these days is a reflection of the developed world’s struggles to do just that. (Though to be clear plenty of it is stoked by opportunism from a resurgent far-right, too.)

Would you like an extra zero with that?

All that said, perhaps Barry Blimp – or at least his more hard-pressed children – might be finding it a bit easier these days to empathise with economic migrants motivated by unimaginable wealth abroad.

Because the fact is the West is not a homogenous bloc. And it’s becoming ever-clearer that the US and the UK in particular have been on very different trajectories.

Of course there are millions of poor and struggling people in the US as well as here. And at least ours have better healthcare.

But this Tweet that went viral from Monevator contributor Finumus highlights a real contrast:

If you consume US personal finance and investing media, you’ll come across this wealth disparity all the time. Casual references to $1,000 splurged at a casino or $20,000 spent on a jet ski on a whim or $500 concert tickets as part of an everyday Friday night out.

It’s not that we don’t ever spend like this in the UK. It’s that there seems to be a zero tacked onto the end of the typical well-off American’s fun budget.

Their truly disposable income comes across as an order of magnitude higher.

Mickey Mouse budgets

Here’s an interesting example from the past couple of weeks. The writer Aaron Renn bemoans a ‘middle-class squeeze’ that has created Have-VIP-passes at Disney World and Have-Nots:

[…] there are just a lot of people making a lot of money today.

A couple where I live who are both middle managers at Eli Lilly could easily have a household income north of $350,000. The median individual employee at Facebook makes $379,000.

This has produced asymmetric financial competition. It used to be that there were rich people, but the middle class wasn’t really competing with them. Rich people bought mansions or luxury cars, but it didn’t affect the average person. There weren’t enough rich people to affect how long it took you to get through the line at Disney World, for example.

Today, there are so many people with so much money that the middle class is now in direct competition with people who have vastly greater financial resources.

You might argue Aaron’s take undermines my point. Sure there are lots of richer people in America, but that’s because of growing inequality there too?

Well yes, except that here in the UK we don’t even really have much in the way of wage inflation at the top. And on average we have had stagnant real wages since the financial crisis:

That chart is from last year, but it’s too striking not to use – and nothing much has changed since except more of us are paying higher-rate taxes and there’s a bigger tax burden on employers.

Again, I know and appreciate the US has plenty of poor people. But Britain is frequently compared to the poorest State in the US – Mississippi –  and in doing so we’re found to be worse off, per capita.

Not a good look for a nation that still considers itself amongst the leading ranks.

A plague on all your over-priced houses

What’s to be done about? Well plenty that isn’t. But just not shooting ourselves in the foot would help.

You wouldn’t want to make it more expensive to hire people, to overburden development, or choose to depress our wealth creators. And of course as a trading nation you wouldn’t impose permanently higher costs on the economy by deciding to leave the vast and prosperous free market on your doorstep.

At this point you might be hurrying to the comments to post your political point of view. But let’s face it, both sides have done poorly over the past few years.

Team Blue must take the lion’s share of the blame, thanks to their lengthy and shambolic stint in power that left us in this mess. But Team Red has been to the cavalry what Jar Jar Binks was to the war effort on Naboo.

Fortunately it’s still possible in the UK to get ahead financially, if you’re say a well-educated Monevator reader who saves and invests hard, uses tax shelters to the max, and you had the good fortune to be born before 1990.

However you can understand why some people jump on boats in despair at their own political systems.

Just be aware if you are tempted to cut corners that the US is destroying boats it doesn’t like in international waters. (It’s also urging we do the same).

Ho hum.

Have a great weekend.

p.s. We were a bit too imprecise about passwords in The Realist’s excellent debut article on preparing your paperwork ahead of your death. So please note it may be against the T&Cs – and even the law – to access some accounts after your loved one has died, if they were held in their own name. See this commentary from the Bereavement Advice Centre.

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When I die: financial affairs fit for the afterlife

Image of a ‘When I Die’ file held in a grey box drawer

New contributor The Realist makes the case for a ‘When I Die’ file that gathers all your worldly financial, er, gumf in one place. Your heirs will thank you. Especially if you remember to tell them where to find it in advance…

Who wants to spend whatever free time is left after work, sleep, feeding children, transporting children, and cleaning up after children… thinking about how someday those children may find themselves struggling to unpick our finances when we depart?

I know I don’t.

I can barely find the time to watch the Formula One from two days ago on record – probably after I’ve already found out the result through some pesky algorithm. (Do better, artificial intelligence!)

However if my beloved sport is sometimes lampooned as a procession, then the same might be said about life.

By which I mean it’s only a matter of when, not if, we shuffle off this mortal track. And there’s no pause or rewind button to postpone the inevitable.

Will you, won’t you?

Statistically speaking, death is pretty likely. Studies show that 100% of humans participate in the endeavour at some point.

Oh well, when it’s your turn you won’t care what happens afterwards, right?

Wrong. Anyone who has written a will has already realised this – and thought about what they’d like to have happen when there are no more pit stops left to take.

Your will (‘and testament’) is the starting point for whoever will deal with the aftermath of your passing.

A will is legal document that outlines how your assets – money, property, possessions – should be distributed after your death.

Wills also enable you to appoint guardians for your minor children, and to name an executor to manage your estate. They can be written with a local solicitor or even online with services such as Farewill.

If you have no will then stop reading and go and get one. I’ll still be here when you’re done.

Got a will? Good stuff.

But that’s not quite the end of the story.

Because the reality is that while having a will is great in theory – in practice dealing with your estate can still be tricky for those left behind, even with a will in hand.

The Grey Box

Life is full of surprises.

In our family we expected the infirm, sedentary, eight-years-the-senior mother-in-law to go first. The younger, fitter, active father-in-law would surely only follow her some immeasurable rounds of golf later.

Forces at play in 2021 had other ideas.

Covid, specifically. You may have heard of it.

My wife is an only child. So with my mother-in-law unable to offer much assistance, it fell to my wife and me to deal with the aftermath of everything that comes with the passing of a parent.

You’d need to be a Zen master to find much to smile about at a time like this.

Nevertheless we did run into one heartening provision that significantly altered the trajectory of much that was otherwise flying towards the proverbial fan.

Enter: The Grey Box.

We called it The Grey Box not because its contents were shrouded in a swirling fog of mystery, but because it was, well, a grey box.

A grey metal box as it happens.

And inside this box was a ‘When I Die’ file that made everything much easier.

Everything you need to know but were too afraid to ask

Sometimes called an ‘If I Die’ file, I’ve removed the implied jeopardy of the situation and will refer to it as a ‘When I Die’ (WID) file from here on.

My father-in-law was an accountant by trade. If I had to describe him in one word it’d be ‘organised’.

And by foreseeing the need for – and organising – his WID file to the future benefit of his family, my father-in-law made dealing with his affairs much easier.

You see, estate management – particularly if a death is unexpected – is challenging.

Financial gifts of inheritance steal the limelight. But being informed by the recently departed about what to sort out and where it can be found might be a greater gift.

Let’s talk about sex

Okay, not the mid-article interlude you were expecting!

But it’s relevant, because studies over the past two decades have found that Britons would rather talk to their family about sex than money matters.

Yep, we’re more likely to discuss an ex-partner’s foot fetish than an ex-employer’s defined benefit pension scheme.

Unless I’ve lived a particularly sheltered life though, only the latter is likely to be of interest to my family once I’ve sidled off to the Pearly Gates.

So let’s talk more about personal finance, eh?

Would I die to you

Your WID file should contain everything that your loved ones will need to make sense of your financial life when you move on.

As a starting point, your WID should cover the following areas.

Personal details – Obvious, maybe. But perhaps there’s a legal middle name you have never admitted to, or an annulled marriage from your youth where you briefly had a different name? This could matter when your executors are making filings or searches on your behalf.

Will and estate information – Either a copy of your will, or details of where it’s kept.

Insurance – A full list of insurances held is vital. These will either need to be cancelled, or else they may be due to payout in the event of your death. (Perhaps instructions on where to find the ten-year warranty for that air fryer you’ve promised to your brother-in-law might also come in handy?)

CV – Or rather, a complete list of your employment history. You didn’t know that Dad used to have a night job stacking ice cream boxes? No, neither did we. But there could be a forgotten pension associated with it somewhere.

Pensions – Since the rollout of workplace pensions, the number of individual pension pots held by individuals has increased. Be sure to list what you have and who manages it, plus any benefits that may be due to payout now you’re not here.

List of accounts – This is where it gets trickier. As a minimum, include all financial organisations where you’re a customer and detail the account types you hold with each. Account numbers will also help.

Passwords – Do not include your little black book of pin numbers. Storing them alongside account information is a huge risk in the event of theft. Instead, use a password manager or as a last resort, a coded but decipherable message as to where the critical passwords can be found. UPDATE: Reader @DavidV has noted in the comments that you should not access digital accounts of the deceased held solely in their name, as this may be a breach of the Terms and Conditions and also may not be legal. See comment #2 below and this guidance from the Bereavement Advice Centre.

Property deeds – Murphy’s Law dictates that shortly after you’re gone, next door’s fence will blow over. Or is it your fence? At least when armed with the property deeds your executors can have a sensible discussion.

Debts – Loans, credit cards, and mortgages. Your executors will assume responsibility for settling these as required.

Important contacts – Numbers and email addresses for the family solicitor, accountant, work colleagues, and your distant cousin Andrew in Australia. Anyone who should be informed – or you want informed – in the event of your passing.

Funeral arrangements – It’s becoming more common for people to plan their own funeral whilst alive. Perhaps your family are not aware you did? This is a good place to keep the relevant paperwork, just in case.

Any other pertinent information – Include personal wishes that may not be covered elsewhere. (You want your ashes sent up into the atmosphere in a giant Roman candle? Who knew!)

LPAs – Strictly speaking, Lasting Power of Attorney (LPA) documents would be called upon prior to your death. Keep them here though, because if a LPA is needed, you may not have the capacity to explain the WID file location or its contents anyway.

Easy access

Even the best WID file is useless if no one can find it. This is not the time for riddles or for turning the house upside down like some high stakes escape room puzzle.

Pick one or two trusted people. Tell them exactly where your file is. If it’s digital then tell them how to access it.

Any other business?

This was not an exhaustive list and your WID file is not a one-and-done project. It’s an opening framework to periodically update and tweak to suit your needs.

Life changes. Financial institutions get merged, assets move, and maybe you’ve decided you no longer want Hells Bells played at your funeral because your leather jacket hasn’t fitted you in years.

Thoughts for the future

Remember, the purpose of your WID file is to help those you love to deal with your loss during what will be a very emotional time.

So make it relevant to your life, and keep everything together in a single, logical place. Not at the back of the man-drawer filing system where you store those little coin-shaped batteries.

Understand that what makes perfect sense to you might look like a car crash to someone picking up your WID file for the first time.

Heck, it may even look like a car crash to you once you’re done compiling it. In which case perhaps it’s time to simplify your finances?

That pension pot with just £9,000 sitting in it from 2001 – can it be consolidated into your main SIPP? If so that’s one less financial institution that’s going to hoard a precious original death certificate for six months.

Estate planning isn’t just about paperwork – it’s an emotional act of care. By creating a clear, accessible file with fewer moving parts to deal with, you’re giving your loved ones the gift of less stress during an awful time.

True, there is an account tracing service run by the National Bereavement Service. But by being intentional now you’ll spare your executors a scavenger hunt through banks and brokers they’ve never heard of.

Positive thinking

I accept that creating your own Grey Box may sound a bit morbid. Nobody wants to think about this stuff.

However I’ve found that doing so can also be oddly comforting. A reminder that whilst we can’t control everything, we can cut down the chaos we’ll inevitably leave behind.

Also: your box doesn’t need to be grey! You can even give it a funny name if it helps.

Perhaps you should speak to your own parents about doing a WID if they’re still around, too? Here’s a nice project to keep them busy…

Better yet speak to anyone for whom you might be an executor.

Let’s all get our own Grey Boxes going. I know it’s hardly ideal dinner table conversation fodder. But one day you may be grateful you broached the subject.

Sex and pensions – you can’t discuss either when you or they are gone.

Grey matters

In our family we’re eternally grateful for our father-in-law’s Grey Box.

When he collated it, my father-in-law could have had no expectation that it would be called into action so soon. He was only 72 and full of life.

However its thoughtful contents were ready just when we needed them most.

This was possibly the greatest gift he could have passed on to us. With time and consideration, your own Grey Box might be the greatest gift you can give, too.

  • More morbid: The Accumulator outlined his investing succession plan – starting with a love letter to the surviving partner – in a post for Monevator members.
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Expected returns: Estimates for your investment planning

Expected returns are unpredictable. As symbolised by this picture of a pair of dice.

Understanding your future expected returns is an important part of your investment plan.

Your expected return is the average annual growth that you can reasonably hope your portfolio will deliver over time. It may be a real return of 4% per year, for example.

With a credible expected return figure you can work out whether you’re investing enough money to meet your goals – just by plugging your number into an investment calculator.

Give us a few minutes and we’ll show you how it’s done.

What are expected returns?

Expected returns are estimates of the future performance of individual investments – typically asset classes. Expected return figures are provided as average annual returns that you might see over a particular timeframe. Say the next five or ten years. 

The figures are usually based on historical data, but modified by current valuation metrics.

The Gordon Equation is one of the better-known expected returns formula. 

Because future returns are highly uncertain, some sources offer a range of expected returns or probabilities. This emphasises the impossibility of precise predictions. 

Think of expected returns as a bit like a long-range weather forecast. You’ll get some guidance on conditions coming down the line. But expected returns can’t tell you when exactly it will rain. 

Even so, expected returns are a useful stand-in for the ‘rate of return’ required by investment calculators and retirement calculators.

For instance:

A retirement calculator picture shows you where to put your expected returns figure.

You’d put your portfolio expected return number in your calculator’s ‘rate of return’ slot.

By collating estimates for individual asset classes, we can calculate a portfolio’s expected return. See the table below.  

Moreover, because expected return calculations are informed by current market valuations, they may be a better guide to the next decade than historical data based solely on past conditions.

Expected returns: ten-year predictions (%)

Asset class / Source

Vanguard (12/11/24)

 Research Affiliates (31/7/25) BlackRock (30/6/25) Invesco (31/12/24) Median (2/9/25)
Global equities 5.3 5.4 5.8 5.4
Global ex US equities 6.1 7.4 6.8
US equities 3.9 3.6 4.3 5 4.1
UK equities 6.7 8.4 5.6 6.6 6.7
Emerging markets 6.3 8.6 8 9.1 8.3
Global REITs 6.4 4.9 7.1 6.4
UK gov bonds 4.3 4.7 4.5
Global gov bonds (£ hedged) 3.9 5.3 4.6
Inflation-linked bonds 6 5.2 5.6
Cash 2.8 3.4 3.1
Commodities 6 5.2 5.6
Inflation 2.7 2.7

Source: As indicated by column titles, compiled by Monevator.

The table shows the ten-year expected returns1 for key asset classes, expressed as nominal average annual percentage returns in GBP. 

We have sourced them from a variety of experts.

Make sure you subtract an inflation estimate from the nominal figures in the table. This gives you a real return figure to deploy.2

For average inflation, you could use the ten-year UK instantaneous implied inflation forward curve (gilts) chart from the Bank of England

Their mileage may vary

As you can see from our table, opinions vary on the expected rate of return.

Methodology, inflation assumptions, and timing all make a difference.

But overall, equity return expectations have dropped dramatically since our last update.

The global equities median expected return was 7.3% in July 2023. Now it’s 5.4%. That’s well below the historical average. 

Sky-high US stock market valuations are a major factor. High valuations mean that stock market prices are elevated relative to measures of underlying company worth such as earnings, sales, dividends, and profit margins.

In other words, investors buying US shares today seem to be paying a lot for the chance of benefitting from anticipated future growth. 

In that situation, there’s a heightened chance that demand will drop for stocks as market participants decide that prices are too high compared with the likely payoff. 

If that view takes hold, then the resultant fall in prices can translate into lower stock market gains – or even outright losses for a time, depending on the period of your investment. 

That’s the theory anyway, and indeed market valuation signals like the CAPE ratio have tended to correlate high valuations that exceed historical norms with subdued average future returns (over the next ten to 15 years).  

Forecasting models take these signals into account – along with other inputs such as macroeconomic assumptions and historical return factors. 

The upshot is most are currently predicting slow growth ahead for the US stock market, which is also the largest component of global equities.

Notice that the prospective returns for Global ex US equities (that is, stock markets other than the US) are significantly better than for global equities ‘inc US’.

Temper your tantrums

Remember, these return expectations are only projections. They’re as good as we’ve got but they’re about as accurate as buckshot. The numbers will almost certainly be off to some degree.

For instance, the CAPE ratio has been shown to only explain about 48% of subsequent ten to 15 year returns. 

And some forecasts have predicted low US returns for years, only to be defied by reality as the S&P  500 whipped the rest of the world

Rethinking bonds

Very notably, UK gilts3 and wider global government bonds are forecast to earn only 1% less per year than global equities at present.

That implies a low opportunity cost to diversifying into bonds right now. 

So it may well be time to rethink your fixed income holding if 2022’s bond-o-geddon frightened you out of the asset class entirely. 

Today’s higher yields mean that bonds are far more likely to be profitable over the next decade than they were at the tail-end of the near-zero interest rate era. 

The current yield of a 10-year government bond is a good guide to its average annual return over the next decade. And a 10-year gilt is yielding 4.74% at the time of writing. 

Portfolio expected returns

Okay, so now what? 

Well, let’s use the asset class expected return figures above to calculate your portfolio’s expected return.

Your portfolio’s expected return is the weighted average of the expected return of each asset class you hold. 

The next table shows you how to calculate the expected return of a portfolio. Just substitute your own asset allocation into the example one below:

Asset class  Allocation (%) Real expected return (%) Weighted expected return (%)
Global equities 50 2.7 0.5 x 2.7 = 1.35
Global REITs 10 3.7 0.1 x 3.7 = 0.37
UK gov bonds 20 1.8 0.2 x 1.8 = 0.36
Cash 10 0.4 0.1 x 0.4 = 0.04
Commodities 10 2.9 0.1 x 2.9 = 0.29
Portfolio expected return 2.41

Portfolio expected return = the sum of weighted expected returns.

This gives us 2.41% in this example.

Feel free to use any set of figures from the range of expected returns in our first table above. Or mix-and-match expected returns for particular asset classes where you can find a source. Research Affiliates and BlackRock should cover most of your bases. 

The expected return of your bond fund is its yield-to-maturity (YTM). Look for it on the fund’s webpage.

Because most sources present expected returns in nominal terms, remember to deduct your inflation estimate to get a real expected return. 

You should also subtract investment costs and taxes. Keep them low!

Taken together, the formula for the expected return of a portfolio is therefore: 

  • The nominal expected return of each asset class – minus inflation, costs, and taxes  
  • % invested per asset class multiplied by real expected return rate
  • Add up all those numbers to determine your portfolio’s expected return

The resultant portfolio-level expected return figure can be popped into any investment calculator.

You’ll then see how long it could take to hit your goals for a given amount of cash invested.

How to use your expected return

Input your expected return calculation as your rate of growth when you plot your own scenarios

Drop the number into an investment calculator or into the interest rate field of our compound interest calculator.

As we saw earlier, the expected return rate we came up with for the portfolio above was a pretty disappointing 2.41%.

Historically we’d expect a 60/40 portfolio to deliver more like a 4% average rate of return.

After a long bull market for equities, market pundits seem to feel there’s less juice left in the lemon. They’ve therefore curbed their expectations.

The long view

If you’re modelling an investing horizon of several decades, it’s legitimate to switch to longer-run historical returns

That’s because we can assume long-term averages are more likely to reassert themselves over stretches of 30 or 40 years. 

The average annualised rate of return for developed world equities is around 6-7% over the past century. (That’s a real return. Hence there’s no need to deduct inflation this time.)

Meanwhile gilts have delivered a 1% real annualised return

Even though your returns will rarely be average year-to-year, it’s reasonable to expect (though there’s no guarantee) that your returns will average out over two or three decades.

That’s what tends to happen over the long term.

Excessively great expectations

Planning on bagging a real equity return of 9% per year is living in La La Land.

Not because it’s impossible. Golden eras for asset class returns do happen.

But you’ll need to be lucky to live through one of them if you’re to hit those historically high return numbers.

Nobody’s financial plan should be founded on luck. Because luck tends to run out.

So opt for a conservative strategy instead. You’ll be better able to adapt if expectations fall short. You can always ease off later if you’re way ahead. 

Remember your expected return number will be wrong to some degree, but it’s still better than reading tea leaves or believing all your dreams will come true. 

Don’t like what you see when you run your numbers? In that case your best options are to:

  • Save more
  • Save longer
  • Lower your financial independence target number

These are factors you can control when faced with potential low future returns. All are preferable to wishing and hoping.

How accurate are expected returns?

Expected returns shouldn’t be relied upon as a guaranteed glimpse of the future, like racing tips from a kindly time-traveller. 

Indeed the first time we posted about expected returns we collated the following forecasts:

These were long-range real return estimates. The FCA one in particular was calibrated as a 10-15 year projection for UK investors. 

What happened? Well, the ten-year annualised real returns were actually:

  • Global equities: 7.6%4
  • UK government bonds: -2.6%5
  • A 60/40 portfolio returned 3.5% annualised

The 60/40 portfolio expected return forecasts above now look amazingly prescient. Before 2022 they looked too pessimistic, but that turbulent year of rate rises has knocked both equities and bonds down a peg or three. 

Previously, the 10-year actual returns had run far ahead of the forecasts. Maybe these realised returns had been juiced by waves of quantitative easing from Central Banks? Perhaps the retrenchment of globalisation more recently has also been a factor.

In any event I wouldn’t expect even the greatest expert to be consistently on-target.

Rather, it’s better to think of a given set of expected returns as offering one plausible path through a multiverse of potential timelines.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

P.S. This is obvious to old hands, but new investors should note that expected returns do not hint at the fevered gyrations that can grip the markets at any time.

Sad to say, but your wealth won’t smoothly escalate by a pleasant 4% to 5% a year.

Rather on any given day you have a 50-50 chance of tuning in to see a loss on the equity side of your portfolio.

And every year there’s on average a 30% chance of a loss in the stock market for the year as a whole.

On that happy note, I’ll bid you good fortune!

Note: this article has been updated. We like to keep older comments for context, but some might be past their Best Before dates. Check when they were posted and scroll down for the latest input.

  1. Note that most corporates badge their expected returns calculations as ‘capital market assumptions.’ []
  2. Real returns subtract inflation from your investment results. In other words, they’re a more accurate portrayal of your capital growth in relation to purchasing power than standard nominal returns. []
  3. i.e. UK government bonds. []
  4. Source: Vanguard FTSE All World ETF []
  5. Source: Vanguard UK Gilt ETF []
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