Weekend reading: Sic transit gloria mundi (UK house price edition)

What caught my eye this week.

Were you one of the millions who a few years ago became obsessed with the fall of the Roman Empire?

Being stuck inside during the pandemic saw minds of a certain age turn to the rise of Julius Caesar, the demise of the Republic, and how Rome was eventually overrun (and run by – IYKYK) the barbarians.

Theories abound when it comes to explaining Rome’s collapse: populism, a reliance on slavery, imported decadence, outsourcing the military, debasing the currency. All more than enough to keep anyone in podcasts for a year.

However, if the collapse of the Roman Empire is hard to figure out, then the reasons for the decline and fall of another once all-conquering force – the UK property market, especially in London and the South East – and its prospects for recovery are equally contested.

You’ll recall prime prices in London are flat over the past ten years and well down in real terms.

The rest of the capital hasn’t fared much better – one in seven property owners in the capital sold at a loss last year, according to the Land Registry – and the Covid-migration price bounce in the more scenic regions of the South East long ago unwound, too.

It’s largely only in the Midlands and the North of England where prices are still advancing.

And mostly that’s because they took so long to recover from the crash of 2008/2009.

Barbarians at the front gate

Who should disappointed homeowners blame for the down valuations, gazundering would-be purchasers, and houses that fail to sell amid a glut of similar listings?

Well, themselves in the first instance for pricing their homes too highly, of course.

But as for what did for the UK property market more generally – take your pick.

Interest rate rises surely did the most damage recently. But London was soggy long before the five-minute reign of Emperor Liz Truss spiked mortgage rates up.

Higher transaction taxes and a decade-long effort to make buy-to-let less attractive to casual investors? They must be in the mix.

The overall tax take is up too. That leaves less to spend on property.

Then you have Brexit and its aftermath, and the exodus of non-dom money in London.

Most recently, Labour has thrown a wet blanket over any sparks of life in the UK economy, not least with its interminable Budget speculation. (It’ll be ‘interesting’ to see the impact of its new mansion tax on homes above £2m.)

Bread and circuses

On the other hand, incomes have risen quite a bit in recent years – in nominal terms at least – and years of price attrition has surely taken the froth off most property valuations.

The FT’s graph below shows that first-time buyer affordability has improved. Those of us who own our homes thanks to a mortgage are also typically in a better spot, as inflation has eroded the real value of our often nominally-monstrous debts.

And – whisper it – Rachel Reeves and her wonks have gone for more than a month now without floating a trial balloon to send would-be homebuyers back under their blankets.

Finally, we’re building far fewer new homes than we need to. This should help support prices, especially in London.

All that adds up to what counts for optimism in UK property these days!

Caveat emptor

Talking of the chancellor, if I were her I would have simplified and slashed stamp duty on residential property in the Budget, with the expectation it would be at worst revenue neutral.

Maybe it’s a South of England thing, but nobody thinks about moving without looking at the stamp duty bill – easily tens of thousands for a three-bed terrace in London – and quailing. And often opting not to move as a consequence.

Something needs to get the UK growing again, and everyone playing swapsies with property – and revamping kitchens and bathrooms as they do so – has helped before.

If we could have an activity boom without prices taking off again, so much the better.

As things stand though, moving home remains dauntingly expensive. And there’s far less confidence in the property market than you’d expect, given relatively low unemployment and interest rates off their highs.

Consider this selection of the week’s relevant reads:

• Homes for sale reach eight-year high as competition intensifies – This Is Money
• UK property market ‘on the up’ amid bump in housing prices – Guardian
• Is now a good time to sell your home? – Which
• What’s behind London’s house price slump? – This Is Money
• The problem with the mansion tax is it’s badly designed [Paywall] – FT

The UK property market nearly always sees an optimistic asking price bump in January. But beyond that, who knows what 2026 will bring?

Feel free to place your bets in the comments – but personally I doubt we’re off to the chariot races.

(Sorry, I’ll get my toga.)

Have a great weekend.

From Monevator

How can I make the most of my redundancy money? – Monevator [Members]

The anatomy of a platform transfer – Monevator

From the archive-ator: When to buy insurance – Monevator

News

UK inflation ticks up for first time in five months to 3.4%… – Sky News

…though rents are down for the first time in 15 years – Which

Labour’s Warm Home plan puts the heat on landlords – Landlord Today

MPs to ask Serious Fraud Office to investigate UK home insulation sector – Guardian

Norwegian sovereign fund in sell-off of London-listed stocks – Sky News

AJ Bell boss says cash ISA reforms are “doomed to fail” – This Is Money

Canary Wharf boss: boomers can redeem themselves by investing for the young – T.I.M.

FCA braced for backlash over its ‘return to office’ push – Sky News

The disclosure of aliens could cause a Bitcoin rush, says former BoE analyst – Gizmodo

Billionaires have ‘outsized’ political influence, says Oxfam – CNBC

Housing affordability has improved for UK’s first-time buyers [Paywall] – FT

Products and services

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Vanguard revamping LifeStrategy funds, reducing UK home bias – Vanguard

Best first-time buyer mortgage rates now sit below 4% – This Is Money

The savings accounts that can still beat inflation – Which

Get up to £1,500 cashback when you transfer your cash and/or investments to Charles Stanley Direct through this affiliate link. Terms apply – Charles Stanley

Buy-to-let mortgage predictions for 2026 [Podcast] – The Property Podcast

Get paid to recycle beauty product packaging – Be Clever With Your Cash

Get up to £3,000 cashback when you open or switch to an Interactive Investor SIPP. Terms and fees apply, affiliate link – Interactive Investor

Full list of ‘Blue Light’ card discounts in 2026 – Be Clever With Your Cash

Homes for sale to inspire artists, in pictures – Guardian

Comment and opinion

An antidote to personal stagflation – The Root of All

Why you can’t time the market… – Of Dollars and Data

…and good luck timing bubbles bursting, too – Klement on Investing

The philosophy of money – We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards

Why are credit card rates so high? – A Wealth of Common Sense

The paradox of work [Paywall] – FT

How to know when to spend a lot of money – The Net Worthwhile

Side hustle taxes: fact versus fiction – Be Clever With Your Cash

How to get what you want in hidden markets – Thinking In Bets

Is enshittification the driver of higher corporate profit margins? – Abnormal Returns

How might changes to the RPI index impact defined benefit pensions? – S.L.I.S.

Morgan Housel: survival is wealth [Podcast] – Farnam Street

Naughty corner: Active antics

Revulsion as a buy signal – Morningstar

Biotechs are especially risky investments – Verdad

Why Elon Musk is racing to take SpaceX public – W.S.J.

2025 portfolio review – FIRE V London

The real secrets to Warren Buffett’s success – Morningstar

Kindle book bargains

How to Own the World by Andrew Craig – £0.99 on Kindle

Zero to One: Notes on Startups by Peter Thiel – £0.99 on Kindle

The Four-hour Work Week by Tim Ferriss – £0.99 on Kindle

How to Break Up With Fast Fashion by Lauren Bravo – £0.99 on Kindle

Or pick up one of the all-time great investing classics – Monevator shop

Environmental factors

Inside the first ‘zero bills’ homes where you pay nothing for energy – Sky

Why are onions turning up on Brighton beach? – Guardian

Solar batteries for the home – Independent

Scientists warn of ‘regime shift’ as seaweed blooms expand worldwide – Guardian

EV price crash has thrown up ‘jaw-dropping’ bargains – This Is Money

Dugongs are vanishing from Thailand’s shores… – Guardian

…though giant lizards are taking over its capital city – BBC

Robot overlord roundup

Cory Doctorow: salvaging something when the AI bubble bursts – Guardian

Why AI has not led to mass unemployment – The Conversation

See for yourself how massive Meta’s new data centre is – Sherwood

Many small steps for robots, one giant leap for mankind – Not Boring

Musk says work will be optional and money irrelevant due to AI and robots – Fortune

Codeless: from idea to software – Anil Dash

Track AI developments via Delta Hedge’s regularly updated thread – Monevator

Not at the dinner table

Zero-sum economics keeps failing – Noahpinion

Americans are [predictably] paying for US tariffs, study finds – Wall Street Journal

Canadian PM Mark Carney’s on-point speech to Davos [Video] – Via X

Swedish OAPs on how abolishing wealth taxes changed things – The Conversation

Trump’s year of anarchy – Foreign Affairs

Our unfinished economic republics – Aeon

America versus the world – The Atlantic

The US has become a riskier place to do business – Abnormal Returns

Economically, America is already a banana republic – The Bonddad Blog

Off our beat

Is listening to an audiobook as good as reading? – Guardian

Our algorithmic grey-beige world – On My Om

The mushrooms making people hallucinate tiny humans – BBC

Text is king – Experimental History

Why so many writers are athletes – The Atlantic [h/t Abnormal Returns]

A 10p masterpiece! The golden age of crisp packet design – Guardian

Cover your 25 miles, and then rest up – Raptitude

And finally…

“If you have money but you don’t have friends, family, relationships, health, time, or purpose, what’s the point? It’s like having a plate full of salt, but nothing to eat it with.”
– Nick Maggiulli, The Wealth Ladder

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