Weekend reading: Hubris on hold
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This latest crisis has encouraged me to do something I have argued against. I check the status of my ISA daily (as a proxy for all my holdings).
It has been bouncing around since this whole thing started. Up, down and sideways. Different components moving in different directions.
Further demonstration, if I needed it, that I understand nothing and probably never will. Of course, smart people can rationalise what has happened after the event, and other smart people appear to be operating on inside information, but for the average passive investor of the buy-and-hold persuasion, there is no logic. And certainly no predictive logic.
That’s OK, I never planned to take any action anyway. It is just another data point in my large collection of – if you think you know what’s going on, you haven’t understood the situation.
Some new equilibrium will briefly establish itself, or it won’t, but no action I can take beyond that diversified portfolio will do anything to stave off disaster if it is heading my way. To quote Lazarus Long, “It’s amazing how much ‘mature wisdom’ resembles being too tired.”
Good weekend all!
On the SpaceX (and other massive ipo’s) thing this is an excellent explanation by Ben Felix https://youtu.be/iOyFja87uyw?si=j_nUPIDr-nTMSTBg
Distressing as it is to find reason in anything the Don says or does, the world and the non-proliferation treaty does not need a nuclear armed theocracy. There will never be a good time, let alone a right time, to stop them, but as with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea there will come a point where we run out of time.
Oh, and two wrongs don’t make a right so inaction against one regime does not justify giving up on the NPT.
@old_eyes — Very true. Ultimately there isn’t a lot one can do as a private investor facing regime change, except own a bit of everything and look for peace where one can best find it.
@Azamino — I agree, and if this had been a properly planned operation with a credible end game and sensibly forged global alliances (in the absence of any imminent threat to the US) I wouldn’t be considering it pointless.
As it is though the regime looks even more embedded as a result, and I’m skeptical that bombing alone can fully ameliorate the nuclear threat. (For one thing, by degrading the infrastructure around refined uranium it raises the greater possibility of it ending up elsewhere). Remember just last year we were told the nuclear facilities had been completely ‘obliterated’.
This is why I’m so skeptical about the motives behind this operation, as well as the execution.
@Grouty — I rarely watch videos but will try to give it a spin. I saw the valuation is now getting estimated nearer to $2trillion, so it’s going to be germane for all of us…
Betting against America apparently continues to be a poor investment policy for investors
As Jack Bogle often said “All you need is American stocks” -(admittedly addressing his American investors) -seems to be still very true
Personally I have continued to hold my global equity and global bond index trackers (which have predominantly American assets of course ) through thick and thin -another Bogle mantra ie stay the course
It seems to have worked for me -so far!
xxd09
“The super rich… – A Wealth of Common Sense
…and how they make the rest of us miserable – Of Dollars and Data”
The latter article doesn’t say anything about the super-rich making us miserable at all. .
It says that because many of us in the same economic class want to same thing, prices are driven up.
Lots of interesting stuff here-
Visual Capitalist- It’s surprising how low real wages are in places like Japan and South Korea. Not much growth here since 2010 but a 6% fall in Ireland for example.
Canalside homes – I remember the Grand Union Walk houses being built as I was working my first job in London at the time. They were very influential then, and seem to be aging quite well judging by the photos. £1.65m though, I couldn’t find a price history back to the 80s but that one was sold for £210k in 1996.
The Guardian link on older workers earning a pittance training AI models is illuminating, as is the picture of life in the US, if you happen to have a bit of bad luck.
Cato – I wonder is Hungary under Orban the logical outworking of a potential Reform government? It’s certainly been a disaster for them. There’s an aside in the article where it mentions the confiscation of private pension savings. Could never happen here?
@Grouty #2. Thanks for the video link. I watched it on fast (too many words to justify a very simple poistion), but it was interesting in part. Particularly, the idea that these mega-IPOs can cause markets and indices to bend their own rules so as not to be on the outside looking in. However, the conclusion seems to be (as far as I can tell) that any effect will not be dramatic and will fade quite quickly. Perhaps that is just me being optimistic through ignorance.
PS I should have added -rtd 23 years ago-now aged 80
Walked the walk?
xxd09